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Comments 5901 to 5950:
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MA Rodger at 20:32 PM on 3 April 2021Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Rob Honeyutt @434,
Even though Zoe Phin's credentials are not that of a climatologist, I would suggest her work providing the basis for the 'article' presented @431 (her work is set out here) is so poor, she should approach her college and ask for her money back. Evidently her education has entirely failed.
What Zoe Phin manages to show is no more than "Look!! Lots of numbers with decimal points. So I'm right and AGW is fake!!!" Or in her own baseless words "The greenhouse effect hypothesis is simply incorrect and should be abandoned for the sake of empirical science."
The first table of numbers presented by Zoe Phin are presumably taken from CERES and shows that high, uppermid & lowermid clouds have increased through the period 2003-19 while low cloud shows no statistical trend. However I don't see any use of this data within the analysis provided.
The second and third tables (again presumably from CERES but quite where from CERES is a different matter as this is modelled data not measured data) shows annual global average values for surface upward & downward IR and TAO upward for clear-sky/all-sky and with/without areosols. These numbers are not the sort of thing that can be measured globally and further are a ridiculously good fit with GISS annual global average SAT which shows to anybody with half a brain who thought to examine them that the values are modelled numbers not measured numbers.
The extent of the analysis provided by Zoe Phin is simply to compare the 2003-19 averages of these annual global average IR numbers and declare the upward surface IR do not vary enough between clear-sky/all-sky for clouds to play any role in any greenhouse effect. Thus Zoe declares AGW must be fake.
The averaged clear-sky/all-sky TOA upward IR numbers vary by 25Wm^-2, enough to provide 20% of a theoretical +33ºC greenhouse effect, not a million miles from what would be anticipated. But the analysis dismisses the relevance of TOA IR. We are told "Less top-of-atmosphere outgoing radiation doesn’t cause surface heating." So what does less energy leaving the planet do? Where does the energy that is now failing to exit planet Earth go? These are the questions Zoe Phin needs to answer before she continues to make a total fool of herself.
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Rob Honeycutt at 06:29 AM on 3 April 2021Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
I would note that Zoe Phin's credentials are "B.S. Economics, M.S. Quantitative Finance, 10-year Wall Street veteran"
These are most certainly excellent degrees and experience to have, but they are far from what you would want to rely on for topics like, changes in planetary energy balance and the earth's greenhouse effect.
When you need an expert in economics and finance, you certainly don't go looking for a phycisist or a climate scientist. I'm not sure why people think the reverse is rational.
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Eclectic at 05:43 AM on 3 April 2021Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Rkcannon, permit me to add a comment, as a non-expert in these matters. Measuring the alterations in outgoing IR radiation from Earth, is a matter of measuring a very small quantity against the background of a very large quantity. Rather like measuring your bodyweight on ordinary bathroom scales ~ with and without wearing your wristwatch. It is hard to get an accurate assessment of the weight of your wristwatch, even though you repeat the measurements daily over many years!
(Nevertheless, basic physics and common sense do combine to tell you that the wristwatch has a real positive weight, not a negative or zero weight.)
Taking a step back and looking at the climate situation :- over many decades, the observed surface temperature is rising, and the observed Ocean Heat Content is rising, and the observed planetary ice-sheets are melting, and the observed sea-evel is rising. And these changes are in accord with our understanding of radiational basic physics, too.
So only a fool (or scoundrel) would assert that Global Warming is not occurring. (Despite the difficulties inherent in a situation of continual variations and distributions of planet-wide cloud types.)
Speaking of which :- the NoTricksZone website has an appalling track record of presenting distorted and/or misleading information. It is clear that "NTZ" has a strong agenda of presenting disinformation via misquotes and misinterpeting of scientific papers. Yes, I am making an ad hominem comment ~ and it is a very well deserved ad hom in the case of NTZ and its chief editor. Whenever you see something "scientific" reported on NTZ website, your own proper skepticism should immediately go to Triple Red Alert overdrive status.
There are several versions of reporting circulating about an initial study (Kramer et al., 2021). NTZ's effort mentions a Zoe Phin, who is IIRC one of these "GreenHouse Effect does not exist" people ~ so again, your skepticism should result in a close examination of what's being put forward. (Unless you wish to dismiss it all as a huge waste of time for you to investigate. Just as you do when faced with a complicated "proof" of Flat Earth . . . or a new Perpetual Motion Machine . . . or a complicated screed of mathematics supplied by AGW-deniers like Christopher Monckton.)
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Philippe Chantreau at 05:22 AM on 3 April 2021Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
rkcannon,
If Zoe Phin really thinks she has a better grasp than the Kramer et al (2021) team, she should go hack it in the litterature, I'm sure that GRL would be interested. In the meantime, the Kramer et al study is even more recent than Zoe's blog post, peer-reviewed and published, so it was picked up by the SkS team. It uses the data from CERES, whic includes the ERB instruments. Kramer et al find 0.5 W/sq meter increase just between 2003 and 2018.
NASA's press release on the paper.
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rkcannon at 02:55 AM on 3 April 2021Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Can someone please comment on this article? Why is overall radiation still constant over last couple decades? https://notrickszone.com/2021/02/28/faulty-hypothesis-nasa-erb-measurements-dont-show-significant-radiative-budget-differences/
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swampfoxh at 22:41 PM on 2 April 2021Clock is running on our reliance on vegetation as a steady 'carbon sink'
Seems there is no particular point in planting trees when the planet's principal oxygen producing organisms, phytoplankton, are being marched off to extinction.
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swampfoxh at 22:35 PM on 2 April 2021Clock is running on our reliance on vegetation as a steady 'carbon sink'
This does not seem like new information. Tim Flannery wrote about this in "The Weathermakers". Plant growth from excess CO2 has always produced toughened leaf structures, undesirable phenolics, etc. At the same time, other scientists report increasing losses in oxygen production by phytoplankton, themselves imperiled by ocean acidification and warming from the CO2 problem...etc.
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MA Rodger at 18:07 PM on 1 April 2021It's planetary movements
Likitwarm @7,
The intervening comment provides answer to the direct question you pose.
I think it should be added that this correlation you invoke certainly does not imply any causation. This is not because it is but an instance of coincidental curve-fitting, but simply because there is no correlation.
The measure of Scalar Sum of Angular Momentum which provides one side of the corelation is in the words of its creator "nonsense" while the other side (already a very poor fit for a correlation,) is but one version of the measure and additionally incomplete in its presentation. Note the prediction of the creator of the graphic.
"According to this connection, the current warming rate should slow down a little now, but will grow to local maximum arround year 2040, from which point it should drop to next little ice age arround year 2430 and to next warming arround year 2900."
The "current warming rate" presented runs up to 1979. Has the post-1979 warming rate 'slowed down'? It hasn't. It has done the exact opposite and has been doing so for forty years. Thus the complete presentation of this second side of the correlation results in a very very bad fit.
Then you do tell us @3, "I think I'm in over my head." You apprear to be correct with that statement.
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Bob Loblaw at 06:22 AM on 1 April 2021It's planetary movements
To further add to Rob's comment, the time scales in which CO2 causes a tempaerature rise, and a temperature rise causes a CO2 rise are very different.
For a temperature rise to cause a CO2 rise, you need to wait while ecosystems and oceans slowly adapt to the temperature rise - hundreds to thousands of years.
CO2 rising from fossil fuel combustion is taking only decades to cause a rise in temperature.
Time scales are important.
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Tom Dayton at 06:13 AM on 1 April 2021It's planetary movements
Correlation does imply causation. In fact, correlation is necessary for causation. It's just not sufficient.
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Eclectic at 05:56 AM on 1 April 2021It's planetary movements
Likeitwarm : if I may add to Rob Honeycutt's comment :-
Your thinking seems muddled and confused.
A rise in temperature can cause a rise in atmospheric CO2. And a rise in CO2 can cause a rise in temperature (the last 200 years being an excellent example of that . . . and you can find other examples in the paleo history). But I suspect you already knew that.
Just to put things in perspective : the planetary temperature has been falling gradually for about 4,000 years ~ a fall of roughly 0.7 degreesC. The recent Medieval Warm Period [MWP] and the Little Ice Age [LIA] have been very small blips (around 0.3 degrees up or down) on that background decline. So the MWP and LIA have been insignificant in comparison with the overall trend since the peak of the Holocene.
But the modern temperature has now risen far above the MWP and is probably even slightly higher than the previous plateau of the Holocene ( 5-10,000 years ago ). And it is still rising fast. The onset of next major ice age (glaciation) was due in around 15-25,000 years' time . . . but is now postponed far beyond that time span.
Sadly, the movement of the planets Jupiter and Saturn have nix to do with the Earth's climate. But they may have some influence on your personal life, Likeitwarm ~ if you yourself believe in Astrology. (Are you a Cancer or a Capricorn perhaps . . . or more likely a Taurus ? Or perhaps all three ? )
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Rob Honeycutt at 05:02 AM on 1 April 2021It's planetary movements
Likeitwarm... No, because there is a definable mechanism for CO2 being the cause of warming. We know CO2 is a long-lived, non-condensing greenhouse gas. We know that other greenhouse gases, like water vapor, are feedbacks (short-lived, condensing GHG's) that respond to changes in temperature.
You kind of have to look at the whole puzzle, not just the isolated bits.
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Likeitwarm at 04:25 AM on 1 April 2021It's planetary movements
MA Rodger @6
Well, I guess that I have perpetrated a case of correlation does not imply causation. I've heard that a lot. I had a thought on that, doesn't that same principal apply to a rise in temperature just happening to correlate to a rise in CO2? Which is it, CO2 causing the rise in temperature or the rise in temperature causing the rise in CO2 or niether?
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Bob Loblaw at 07:40 AM on 31 March 2021Hard-hitting video explains the origins of climate change 'polarization'
David:
The moderator comment you are looking at (which was entered by me) is in response to deleted contents for comment #2, from jamesh.
That particular user has been making a habit of posting off-topic responses that are not connected to the topic at hand.
Anyone is welcome to participate here, according to the Comments Policy that is linked to in the line just below "Post a Comment" when you are logged in.
Moderator comments appear in green boxes, to distinguish them from general comments from any normal users. They apply specifically to that one comment.
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nigelj at 06:40 AM on 31 March 2021UK is now halfway to meeting its ‘net-zero emissions’ target
MAR @2, thats unfortunate to hear. You live there so you would obviously know. Looks like the material I was reading some time ago put a rosy glow on things. Still, its important to acknowledge that their leaders have made some progress on at least some things like wind power. Carrot and stick psychology.
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David Hawk at 06:36 AM on 31 March 2021Hard-hitting video explains the origins of climate change 'polarization'
This message is very confusing to me. Does it means I should erarse this site and just go away? In the message the moderator uses the word "you" as continuing to do whatever. Does this mean "me?"
I don't recall making any comments on this site? I don't mind leaving it if you want that, or your moderator whats that? Never saw such a threatening message with mo content to me?
My book on climate change sells well in Europe and Asia. I guess I'll post this comment on chat sites there to see if they should abvoid this site as well? Hope this helps you get rid of readers.
"Moderator Response:
[BL] Despite repeated warnings, you continue to fail to find proper places to discuss items."
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jamesh at 00:44 AM on 31 March 2021Hard-hitting video explains the origins of climate change 'polarization'
[Deleted]
Moderator Response:[BL] Despite repeated warnings, you continue to fail to find proper places to discuss items.
Final Warning
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive, off-topic posts or intentionally misleading comments and graphics or simply make things up. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
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prove we are smart at 19:48 PM on 30 March 2021Biden's executive orders on climate have broad public support
Nice reading , however in my opinium, until you stop political parties of all persuasions accepting donations/(bribes) as in my Australian example here, the world will still keep warming . https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/woodside-leads-the-pack-in-fossil-fuel-political-donation-spree/ar-BB1cRWaw
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gws at 11:08 AM on 30 March 2021Hard-hitting video explains the origins of climate change 'polarization'
Would love to hear from folks who did a screening in the US south ... scary thought
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MA Rodger at 03:32 AM on 30 March 2021It's planetary movements
Likeitwarm @3,
You appear to be wanting to convert Semi's assertions into something more than they merit.
Semi says that the Scalar Sum of Angular Momentum (which even Semi brands as as "nonsense") "seems to match the climatologic events" and also "roughly correspond to human civilization thriving" (although I would suggest Semi demonstrates a pretty poor grasp of the chronology of "human civilisation").
From that rather weak relational description you are asserting there is a "correlation" (your assertion because Semi does not go so far). And if you examine the data that you assert is correlated (as shown in Semi's Fig 81 on p50), it is far from convincing. And it gets worst. Note the Moberg et at proxy data only reaches to 1979, since when NH temperatures have risen by +1.3ºC. Semi strangely omits the vertical scaling from his graphics, but a quick look at Moberg et al shows his smoothed 2000-year NH proxy reconstruction has a full range of 0ºC down to -0.7ºC meaning if the last 40 years were plotted onto that Fig 81, the NH temperature trace wouldn't just be off the graph, it would be off the page!!
So I would strongly caution you to ignore all ideas of there being something 'matching' or 'corresponding' shown and certainly not any correlating.
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Daniel Bailey at 02:45 AM on 30 March 2021It's planetary movements
"there is no effect on our climate"
Likeitwarm, while the Sun can influence the Earth’s climate it isn’t responsible for the warming trend we’ve seen over the past few decades. The Sun is a giver of life; it helps keep the planet warm enough for us to survive. We know subtle changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun are responsible for the comings and goings of the ice ages. But the warming we’ve seen over the last few decades is too rapid to be linked to changes in Earth’s orbit, and too large to be caused by solar activity.
One of the “smoking guns” that tells us the Sun is not causing the recent warming of Earth’s surface and ocean comes from looking at the amount of the Sun’s energy that hits the top of the atmosphere. Since 1978, scientists have been tracking this using sensors on satellites and what they tell us is that there has been no upward or downward overall trend in the amount of the Sun’s energy reaching Earth.
A second smoking gun is that if the Sun were responsible for global warming, we would expect to see warming throughout all layers of the atmosphere, from the surface all the way up to the upper atmosphere (stratosphere). But what we actually see is warming at the surface and cooling in the stratosphere. This is consistent with the warming being caused by a build-up of heat-trapping gases near the surface of the Earth, and not by the Sun getting “hotter.”
Scientists have quantified the warming caused by human activities since preindustrial times and compared that to natural temperature forcings.
Changes in the sun's output falling on the Earth from 1750-2011 are about 0.05 Watts/meter squared.
By comparison, human activities from 1750-2011 warm the Earth by about 2.83 Watts/meter squared (AR5, WG1, Chapter 8, section 8.3.2, p. 676).
What this means is that the warming driven by the GHGs coming from the human burning of fossil fuels since 1750 is over 50 times greater than the slight extra warming coming from the Sun itself over that same time interval.
https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/#fig-2-3
The reality is, over the past 6 decades of significant global warming, the net energy forcing the Earth receives from the Sun had been very slightly negative. As in, the Earth should be cooling, not warming, if it was the Sun driving the observed warming of the past 6 decades. Does this mean the Sun is dimming? No. Over the centuries, the Sun’s output waxes and wanes between more active periods of time, like during the 1950s and 1960s, and periods when it is very quiet for decades like in the1600s (called a Grand Solar Minimum). However, the difference between the more active periods and the quieter periods isn’t very great and is not by itself long enough or great enough to propel Earth’s climate into either a runaway heating (like happened on Venus) or into an “snowball Earth”. Overall, the Sun has increased its output by roughly 10% per billion years of its life.
https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-incoming-sunlight"brightening of the Sun is unlikely to have had a significant influence on global warming since the seventeenth century"
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature05072
What this means, in plain English: the warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is 6 times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum.
Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last for a century, global temperatures would still continue to warm. Because the Sun is not the only factor affecting global temperatures on Earth.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010GL042710
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/6dbf95a2-e322-4c92-838a-faf4dd77fa93/grl26938-fig-0002.png
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JD017013
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/50198c16-0139-4e49-a7f2-e3e66e3af759/jgrd17754-fig-0006.png
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50361
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/a4f99608-109a-410d-99e6-d1c80799bccc/grl50361-fig-0002-m.jpg
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50806
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014JD022022
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature21364
https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/abs/2017/01/swsc170014/swsc170014.html
https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/article-abstract/58/2/2.17/3074082
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/aaa124/meta
https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/3469/2018/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379118307261
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0402-y
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0059.1
https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/solar-cycle-25-is-here-nasa-noaa-scientists-explain-what-that-meansThe human forcing is now the dominant forcing of climate, dwarfing all natural forcings combined. Even that from the Sun.
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Rob Honeycutt at 01:57 AM on 30 March 2021It's planetary movements
It's important to note that it's unlikely anyone here will be alive in 2100 to see what transpires after that point. Decisions we make today must be made on what the best available science tells us is likely to happen.
As far as science goes, I wouldn't put much credence on a paper that claims that the modern tech boom is a product of solar cycles.
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Likeitwarm at 01:30 AM on 30 March 2021It's planetary movements
MA Rodger, #2
Even though I think I'm in over my head, to put it in layman's terms ... So, even though there is a correlation between Semi's 934 year cycle and warm and cool periods of our climate, there is no effect on our climate? I guess we'll see if it starts getting colder in 2100, but I won't be here. Thanks for the explanation.
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MA Rodger at 21:22 PM on 29 March 2021CO2 is not the only driver of climate
A reply to Likeitwarm @65 has been posted on the thread indicated as others may be curiiious about the thesis cited @65.
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MA Rodger at 21:19 PM on 29 March 2021It's planetary movements
You link to comment presented in Semi (2009-unpublished) 'Orbital resonance and Solar cycles' specifically p48 which says:-
The "wave" of approximate period of 934* years, which could also probably be anti-correlated with Sun spin rate, seems to match the climatologic events of Medieval optimum and Global warming, and also the Little Ice age of Maunder minimum, and similar periods in earlier ages (fig. 81)...
If this is right, now the Solar activity could drop a little, but will approach a larger maximum arround year 2050, not disturbed by the peak anomally, and then drop to a next little-ice-age arround 2400 AD. The time-lag between the spin rate change and activity change is still uncertain...The periods of low scalar angular momentum (and higher Solar activity) roughly correspond to human civilization thriving: 1450BC Egypt, 600BC Greece, India and China, 200AD Rome and China, 1200 Medieval optimum (population growth in Europe), 2000AD (present "technical boom"). The periods of high scalar angular momentum (and lower Solar activity) correspond to crisis periods of human civilization.
According to this connection**, the current warming rate should slow down a little now, but will grow to local maximum arround year 2040, from which point it should drop to next little ice age arround year 2430 and to next warming arround year 2900. [**This referring to the paper's Fig 81 which plots the scalar sum of angular momentum of 9 planets and Sun with the climatologic data from Moberg et al (2005) which presents a 200-year NH hockeystick.]
This is all about a "wave" in the Scalar sum of Angular momentum and the page also presents a NOTE saying:-
NOTE: It was remarked, that Scalar sum of Angular momentum is a nonsense, which it is...
I think I would have to agree with this NOTE. Angular momemtum is considered maintained in a closed system and any heat-related effects that may work beyond a close system (the sun loses 130 trillion tons of mass a year through nuclear fusion) wouldn't make a great deal of difference to that, processes which themselves may show variation but again not significantly even if the sun's position relative to the solar-system's barycrentre were a factor (which Semi [2009-unpublished] asserts is when peak Scalar Sum of Angular Momentum occur).
Further to the NOTE, Semi (2009-unpublished) also does not set out this as an overall finding as it is unmentioned in either the abstract or conclusions.Of course, that does not stop the swivel-eyed denialists. I note one of the two papers referencing Semi (2009-unpublished), Holmes (2018) 'Thermal Enhancement on Planetary Bodies and the Relevance of the Molar Mass Version of the Ideal Gas Law to the Null Hypothesis of Climate Change ' is cites Semi (2009-unpublished) as apparently showing "Yoshimura is in evidence throughout the climate system, and in proxy records, on all time-scales," (Yoshimura [1978] being cited to support a 55-year barcentric solar-system cycle but with zero actual mention of Earthly climate in that paper).
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Likeitwarm at 13:42 PM on 29 March 2021CO2 is not the only driver of climate
I feel that I am a total neophyte, I have a lot of respect for the understanding of the atmosphere that resides in this forum.
I don't deny the atmosphere has been warming for the past 200 years or so.
In looking around the internet for answers, I recently read about a planetary cycle described by P.A. Semi at http://semi.gurroa.cz/Astro/Orbital_Resonance_and_Solar_Cycles.pdf page 48.
He says this 934 year cycle coincides with the relatively short cycles of climate change, i.e., medieval warm period and medieval cold period(little ice age) and prior.
If this cycle is fact, then the earths climate is warming now from natural processes coming out of the "Little Ice Age" and CO2 may not be the driver of recent warming of .9 deg C of the last 170 years.
I'd love to know what others think of this.Moderator Response:[TD] That speculation is incorrect. Please see this post, and put further comments there. Everyone who wants to reply to this comment here, please please instead comment over there instead.
[TD] People wanting to reply to this comment: Also, you might want to wait until somebody checks for sockpuppetry. "LikeItWarm" seems an odd handle for someone who has such a lot of respect, and the details in this comment seem not entirely consistent with "neophyte."
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Philippe Chantreau at 05:00 AM on 25 March 2021Has the greenhouse effect been falsified?
Thank you for the link Bob. I felt very validated to see that, as I understood it already at the time, the stupid G&T canard was little more than a play on words leading to a convoluted strawman argument...
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ParadoxIntegration at 15:25 PM on 24 March 2021Has the greenhouse effect been falsified?
This is my first post on SkepticalScience. I recognize that I'm over a decade late on this thread, and I don't know whether or not there might be a more appropriate place to post this. Yet, in case it's of interest, I want to share that I recently wrote a new critique of Gerlich and Tscheuschner's 2009 paper purporting to falsify the greenhouse effect. While my essay overlaps some of the insights offered by Halpern et. al. (2010), it offers its own perspective, and might be accessible to readers in a different way.
Moderator Response:[BL]
Welcome to Skeptical Science.
None of our threads here are ever closed. As long as your post is on-topic (as yours is) it is appropriate to add a comment. It is always useful to have more information.
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MA Rodger at 23:06 PM on 23 March 2021UK is now halfway to meeting its ‘net-zero emissions’ target
nigelj @1,
As somebody who has been campaigning in the UK for a quarter of a century to get the government to wake up and take AGW seriously, my take on the achievement of the UK reaching "halfway" is to brand it "delusional." It is akin to bragging about your hill-climbing abilities and how you have scaled hafway up Snowden when all you have actually done is driven to the car park at Pen-Y-Pas (which is about a third the way up). You haven't even got you boots on yet.
The argument I would make is that the reduction of UK emissions from 1990 (here specifically CO2 rather than CO2e which is the value used in the claim) have mainly resulted from exporting the emissions to China. The carbon footprint of UK has been calculated as being half off-shore and to have grown by 45Mt(C)/yr since 1990. Effectively, over a quarter of the UK's 165Mt(C) 1990 CO2 emissions has been exported to China.
The Primary Energy Use has thus peaked (thanks to China), yet (as shown in this Carbonbrief post), the remaining dependence on fossil fuels (as of 2017) remains at 80% with 7% provided by nuclear which will mostly need replacing. And dig deeper into this grand achievement of Primary Energy, of the 14% from renewables, half results from replacing imported coal with imported wood chips.
It will be interesting to see the plans now being developed by today's Tory-led government. They can't dodge this planning any longer although when the cosequences of zero carbon by 2050 is understood, I can imagine there will be an renewed attempt to kick the planning into the long grass again.
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nigelj at 15:54 PM on 23 March 2021UK is now halfway to meeting its ‘net-zero emissions’ target
Imo the UK have made some impressive achievements cutting emissions, but the title of the Carbon Brief article "UK is now halfway to meeting its ‘net-zero emissions’ target" is just woefully misleading and hands deniers ammunition and says shoot us. Gains made by covid 19 don't count because most of them are temporary, so should not be used to claim the UK is half way to achieving its emissions target. The achievements without covid 19 impacts are quite good, and didn't need this sort of embelishment in the title.
It would be interesting to know why more progress hasn't been made with EV's. Perhaps its because the UK don't appear to offer the subsidies for EVs that Scandinavian countries do.
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scaddenp at 11:28 AM on 23 March 2021Ice age predicted in the 70s
I assume that "letter to the President from Brown University scientists" was this one from Kukla and Matthews to President Nixon. The context was questions at the time over how this current interglacial would end. As detailed by this article and the moderator, this was a minority opinion at the time, and of course, later research (Berger, A. and Loutre, M.F., Insolation values for the climate of the last 10 million years, Quat. Sci. Rev., 1991), made the question moot, never mind considerations of anthropogenic change. No one is questioning that some scientists in 1970s were worried about cooling; but it was not even a majority view, let alone a consensus.
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Stephen Mettler at 10:14 AM on 23 March 2021'Freedom from Fossil Fuels' - a climate science framework for non-scientists
Thanks so much Joel! If you have any recommendations on follow-up areas to prioritize as well, it would be great to hear them - my current plan is to pivot now to building some much shorter posts on individual clean technology solution areas (e.g., more detail on carbon capture technologies, a deeper dive into clean fuels, especially focusing on types of hydrogen production, and ongoing debates over nuclear power).
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BruceWilliams at 07:20 AM on 23 March 2021Ice age predicted in the 70s
Apparently the media thaught Global Cooling was the problem. And apparently a lot of teh scientists thaught the same. Could that hae been because the majority of people realize cold kills and warmth gives life? Apparently the scientists at Brown University were not concerned so much about CO2 warmth but were concerned enough about the cold that kills that they sent a letter to the president.
(Was going to include a scan of the letter, but I would need my own URL with name and all and as such I cannot do that.)
Moderator Response:[DB] Please read both the Basic and Intermediate versions of this post.
A review of the scientific literature from the 1970s shows that the broad climate science community did not predict “global cooling” or an “imminent” ice age. On the contrary, even then, discussions of human-related warming dominated scientific publications on climate and human influences.
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-5#heading-3-2
The large majority of climate research in the 1970s predicted the Earth would warm as a consequence of CO2.
Rather than 1970s scientists predicting cooling, the opposite is the case.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1
This venue uses the scientific method; thus, when you make claims here you need to support them with an appropriate level of citations to the credible scientific literature. Thus:
Available evidence shows that it is the human adaptation to weather extremes that is key in limiting mortality:
"Adaptation measures have prevented a significant increase in heat-related mortality and considerably enhanced a significant decrease in cold-related mortality. The analysis also suggests that in the absence of any adaptive processes, the human influence on climate would have been the main contributor to both increases in heat-related mortality and decreases in cold-related mortality."
and
"With regard to heat-related mortality, projected future increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves may exert a stress beyond the adaptive limits of the population."
Causes for the recent changes in cold- and heat-related mortality in England and Wales
Nikolaos Christidis, Gavin C. Donaldson, Peter A. Stott; Climatic Change, October 2010Mitchell et al 2016 - Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change
"In summer 2003, anthropogenic climate change increased the risk of heat-related mortality in Central Paris by ~70% and by ~20% in London, which experienced lower extreme heat"
"contrary to the propositions of those who like to stress the potential benefits of global warming, a net reduction in mortality is the exception rather than the rule, when comparing estimates around the world"
And
"the world would witness a dramatic increase in heat-related mortality rates in the most populous and often poorest parts of the globe"
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Eclectic at 05:47 AM on 22 March 2021There's no empirical evidence
Magonz, you should be more rigorous in your approach . . . a scientifically rigorous bottom-up approach :-
What is the primary source of evidence of the scientific claim addressing Gravity? Where is the paper that has it all? Where is the raw data, unadjusted by falling apples?
What is the primary source of evidence of the scientific claim addressing electromagnetic Radiation? Why hasn't it come to light, or at least to infra-red? We really do need a Red-Blue Team assessment of this.
What is the primary source of evidence of the scientific claim of the atomic structure of Matter? Or is Matter simply a natural variation? Was the landmark scientific paper by Democritus suppressed or canceled for political purposes? Has the existence of atoms been addressed . . . and what are those quarks really up to? (Are they on a politically-motivated Charm Offensive?)
Magonz, these fundamental questions must first be addressed, before you move on to secondary (or tertiary?) issues like Climate. The true skeptic follows Feynman's motto :- First Things First.
Moderator Response:[DB] The person to whom you are replying is a sock puppet and will not be participating here further.
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Rob Honeycutt at 05:05 AM on 22 March 2021There's no empirical evidence
Magonz... Are the same person as Gzzzm2013 who was commenting above?
Moderator Response:[DB] Yes
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Jonas at 09:11 AM on 21 March 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #11
FYI: I clicked on "The Rise and Fall of the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” and noted that the link is bad (skepticalscience prefixed).
After correcting the link manually, I was shocked to see that realclimate is offline (or hacked or whatever), but my correction was bad: they are on http only, not https. Phew ..
Moderator Response:[BL] Thanks for noting that. We'll get it fixed. In the mean time, the correct link is here:
[BW] Fixed the link. Thanks for the heads-up, Jonas!
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magonz at 02:35 AM on 21 March 2021There's no empirical evidence
I am looking for the primary source (not secondary or tertiary) for the evidence of anthropogenic-caused climate change. Just looking for the data and its analysis, as in a peer reviewed scientific paper...looking for the raw data and its mathematical analysis. Please post link here to the raw data. Measurements. Variable definition. Statistical analysis. Peer review. The paper that has it all, as in any PHD level scientific research. Thanks for the help. Please post link to such evidence here.
Moderator Response:[BL] This sort of "impossible expectations" challenge seems to come up frequently.
Regular viewers: please hold off on responding to this challenge until we have had a chance to see if this new magonz account is another reincarnation of any previously-banned users, which would be a clear violation of our Comments Policy.
A reminder to all, the Comments Policy includes the following:
No multiple identities. Posting comments at Skeptical Science should use only one registered screen name. Use of more than one account will result in all accounts being banned.
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MA Rodger at 19:47 PM on 19 March 2021Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021
SunBurst0 @50,
Rather that having "cleared away any notions that [SunBurst] was simply making stuff up" you rather confirm it by your comment @50. The effort you appear to have taken in composing the comment may suggest it was not done "simply," but the result is pure make-believe. (Note that the notion of what you describe as a "temperature forcing" sounds a lot like a climate feedback.)
Moderator Response:[TD] Sunburst again has been banned for yet another sock puppetry.
[DB] As will all subsequent and future sock puppet iterations of the same account.
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Takahara Misako at 08:45 AM on 19 March 20212nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Perhaps this web page can help?
https://bartonlevenson.com/SecondLaw.html
Moderator Response:[PS] You are replying to comment at is over 2 years old - but good link. Please use the Link tool in the comments editor to make links yourself.
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Takahara Misako at 08:30 AM on 19 March 2021What does China’s 14th ‘five year plan’ mean for climate change?
Sorry for the sock puppet account. I can't access my old account because I tried to create a Wordpress blog and it screwed up everything I have, everywhere on the internet that uses Wordpress.
I'll be commenting under this name from now on.
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Joel_Huberman at 04:38 AM on 19 March 2021'Freedom from Fossil Fuels' - a climate science framework for non-scientists
I can now add that I've gone over the PDF version of your slide deck with a fine-tooth comb, looking for any errors of science or policy (based on my experience as a scientifically-trained but auto-didact climate scientist and as an activist with Citizens' Climate Lobby). Not only did I not find any errors, but I discovered new information of which I was previously unaware! Hearty congratulations and thanks to you!!
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Dawei at 13:59 PM on 18 March 2021Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11, 2021
The paper "Observed changes in rainfall amount and extreme events in southeastern Ethiopia, 1955-2015" seems miscategorized as Agronomy. It would seem it should have been placed under Observations of climate change
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Bob Loblaw at 00:38 AM on 18 March 2021CO2 measurements are suspect
Note that Toms comment I link to in #98 is further up this page (#53)...
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Bob Loblaw at 00:34 AM on 18 March 2021CO2 measurements are suspect
Beck's work seems to come up a lot. There are several other (reliable) places you can read about it on the web:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/beck-to-the-future/
http://rabett.blogspot.com/2006/10/amateur-night.html
http://rabett.blogspot.com/2008/03/beckies-as-tonstant-weader-knows-eli.html
...and an old comment here at SkS by Tom Curtis:
https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php?a=55&p=2#75463
Also note that Beck's paper was published in Energy and Environment. Not the highest quality journal.
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MA Rodger at 22:17 PM on 17 March 2021CO2 measurements are suspect
orrok @96,
The work of W Kreutz you cite does not appear to have been published in English but the work features prominently within Beck (2007) '180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Gass Analysis By Chemical Methods' which did attrach comment from Meijer (2007) & Keeling (2007) [PDF of both] who conclude saying "His work, however, contains major flaws, such that the conclusions are wrong, as they are based on poor understanding of the atmosphere," and "Unfortunately for Beck—as well as for humanity—the claims don’t stand up."
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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021
It does make sense to claim that the Earth as a whole usually is very close to thermal equilibrium if that refers to its energy imbalance with space on a century to millennium time scale or more. If that number wasn't very close to zero most of the time, the Earth would almost constantly experience huge changes of its average temperature, ice cover, sea level and so on.
An energy imbalance of, say, +0.1 watts/m2 sounds very small compared to the ~240 watts/m2 flowing in and out of the climate system, but what if that imbalance was maintained over a period of 10,000 years?
If so, the Earth would accumulate a total of 1.6 x 1025 Joules of energy. That amount of energy could:
1. Heat all the water in the oceans by 3°C on average, or the upper 350-400 metres by 30°C
2. Melt all the Earth's roughly 28 million gigatonnes of ice 1.5 times
3. Heat the entire atmosphere by 3000°C (yes, three thousand degrees C)
(3 is of course highly "unphysical", but it illustrates the huge amount of heat involved)This suggests that the Earth's average energy imbalance from the last glacial maximum to the early Holocene optimum was of the order 0.1-0.2 watts/m2 and that it through most of the Earth's history must have been much less than that.
And the present imbalance?
If the heat increase of the oceans' upper 2000 metres during the last decade is used as an indicator, the current imbalance is about +0.7 watts/m2, probably about +0.8 watts/m2 if other parts of the climate system are included.
So, yes, it definitely makes sense to assume that the Earth usually is very close to thermal equilibrium on a century to millennium time scale or more. -
orrok at 20:54 PM on 17 March 2021CO2 measurements are suspect
I'm interested in CO2 levels during the 1866-present period. Mainly because
1) we have direct observational CO2 measurements from 1866 onwards
2) The period 1866 -present is particulary interesting in terms of human development,the industrial revolution and co2.Would it be possible to include a graph for this period with direct measurements, rather than proxy ice core data?
Of particular note is W. Kreutz, with 25,000 measurements in the period 1930-39 with a mean concentration of 438ppm.
W. Kreutz,“ Kohlensaure Gehalt der unteren Luftschichten in Abhangigkeit von Witterungsfaktoren,” Angewandte Botanik, vol. 2, 1941, pp. 89-117 -
Philippe Chantreau at 07:10 AM on 17 March 2021Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021
John,
We coud add that said Hurricane was a monster 1800km in diameter at its largest, that made it all the way to 40 degrees latitude. Of course, you can blame NY flooding on the storm surge, but there the sea level and storm surge combo is what takes the cake. Deniers will deny.
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Philippe Chantreau at 03:27 AM on 17 March 2021Skeptical Science New Research for Week #10, 2021
And then, having the appropriate number of cattle grazing on such prairie could produce decent meat and displace industrial cattle production that generates excess CO2.
Interestingly, that would take us back to a familiar, older model of farming, which was in fact farming, not industrial production of agricultural goods. Such farming has been killed by industrialization, taking with it quality and a myriad of incidental benefits that were never taken into consideration when the hyper-industrial model became dominant.
That later model is designed for the benefit of commodity traders and other actors for whom profit at any cost is a way of life. Farmers (real ones, not agri-business conglomerates) and consumers are not the big winners in that transformation.
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baeb at 03:12 AM on 17 March 2021Skeptical Science New Research for Week #10, 2021
Around here feed corn farmers make about $150 per acre for delivering what is probably over 40,000 ears of corn for animal feed. If someone just paid the farmer $160 a year to plant a perennial prairie or forest, they copuld eliminate their risk and effort, stop using nitrogen fertilizer, and quit irrigating certainly by year three. Done on a mass scale, it would cut emissions from fertilizer production and feed lots while sequestering over time a lot of carbon and as well as Professor Jahne has pointed out alter the transpiration water cycle and cooling effect in a major way.
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