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Comments 6301 to 6350:

6301. Philippe Chantreau at 04:01 AM on 12 January 2021
      2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
      

      Thanks MA Rodger for doing that leg work, most enlighting. DSJR makes rather strange assertions about satellite temperature data, that suggest nefarious intent and are borderline conspiracy thinking. Not surprising coming from  a WUWT contributor, it's their bread and butter.

      We have discussed the satellite data and its shortcomings on numerous occasions and suffice to say that it is an element that adds to the overall picture but not nearly as satisfying as the real surface data found in GISTEMP or HadCRUT. The refinements and corrections to the satellite data were also discussed.

      I find DSJR voluminous contribution to be a very peculiar mix designed to sound very technical (but how much is actually relevant?) yet with whoppers that don't square at all with true expertise. Curious...

6302. MA Rodger at 01:17 AM on 12 January 2021
      2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
      

      Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy @8,

      Your list of "my publications for information only" contains a 2008 book entitled 'Climate change: myths and realities' which I thought to track down to better understand your position on AGW as your position appears worryingly difficult to establish from your comments within this thread.
      Your book is partially available on-line and does containI some eye-opening passages. For instance:-

      5.2 What is Climate Change?
      "Climate Change" is a change in the "average weather". ... In the past climate change refers to the "Systematic Natural Rhythm", expressed in the form of cycles with different time scales. In recent years, it invariably refers to one component of man-induced changes, expressed in the form of global warming "trend". The major culprit in this sordid episode is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

      The book also has a most curious citation in Google Scholar entitled "Who is Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy?" which well explains some of the "erroneous concepts you have formed" mentioned @9.

6303. Eclectic at 00:01 AM on 12 January 2021
      2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
      

      DRSJReddy @8 ,

      Some of your assertions are correct, some are dubious, and some are completely faulty.  But this is not good enough in scientific discourse.  You must expunge the faulty parts, in order to avoid being unscientific.

      The moderator ( at #5 above ) has indicated the pathway forward for you. Please take your individual points, and discuss them at the appropriate individual threads.   And please read through each of those thread's Original Post (in basic and advanced forms, where available) and please read through the subsidiary commentary posts.   That may well correct some of the erroneous concepts you have formed.   Quite an adventure for you, no doubt ~ but you will find it worthwhile.

6304. Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy at 17:47 PM on 11 January 2021
      2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
      

      Negelj

      Global Warming: It is an estimate of the annual average part of temperature trend. The trend of 1880 to 2010 is 0.6oC per century in which global warming component is 0.3oC – 1951 to 2100 is 0.45oC – according to linear trend. But in reality it is not so as the energy component is constant over which superposed sunspot cycle. However, the reliability depends up on the data used. For example number of stations in around 1850 were < 100 and by around 1980 [started satellite data collection started around this time] they were more than 6000 and with the availability of satellite data the number of stations drastically come down to around 2500. The satellite data covered both urban-heat-island effect and rural-cold-island effect and showed practically no trend – US raw data series also showed this. However, this data was removed from internet [Reddy, 2008 – Climate Change: Myths & Realities, available on line] and replaced with new adjusted data series that matches with ground data series. Here cold-island effect is not covered. With all this, what I want say is warmings associated with solar power plants is added to global warming. How much?? This needs collection of data for all the solar power stations. Met station covers a small area only but acts like UHI effect – I saw a report “surface temperatures in downtown Sacramento at 11 a.m. June 30, 1998 – this presents high variation from area to area based on land use [met station refers to that point only]. So, solar wind power plants effect covers similar to heatwaves and coldwaves. Here general Circulation Pattern plays main role.

      Nuclear Power: Nuclear power production processes contribute to “global warming process” while hydropower production processes contribute to “global cooling process”; the nuclear power production processes don’t fit into “security, safety & economy” on the one hand and on the other “environment & social” concepts; unlike other power production processes, in nuclear power production process different stages of nuclear fuel cycles are counted as separate entities while assessing the cost of power per unit and only the power production component is accounted in the estimation of cost of power per unit; carbon dioxide is released in every component of nuclear fuel cycle except the actual fusion in the reactor. Fossil fuels are involved in the mining-transport-milling conversion-processing of ore-enrichment of the fuel, in the handling of the mill tailings-in the fuel can preparation-in the construction of plant and it decommissioning-demolition, in the handling of the spent waste-in its processing and vitrification and in digging the hole in rock for its deposition, etc. and in the manufacturing of necessary required equipment in all these stages and thus their transportation. In all these stages radiological and non-radiological pollution occurs – in the case of tail pond it runs in to hundreds of years. Around 60% of the power plant cost goes towards the equipment, most of which is to be imported. The spent fuel storage is a critical issue, yet no solution was found. Also the life of reactors is very short and the dismantling of such reactors is costly & risky, etc., etc.

      Michael Sweet/ Negelj

      In 70&80s I worked and published several articles relating to radiation [global solar and net and evaporation/evapotranspiration] – referred in my book of 1993 [based on articles published in international and national journals]. Coal fired power plants reduces ground level temperature by reducing incoming solar radiation. In the case of Solar Panels create urban heat island condition and thus increases the surrounding temperature. In both the cases these changes depends upon several local conditions including general circulation patterns. Ground condition plays major role on radiation at the surface that define the surface temperature [hill stations, inland stations & coastal stations] – albedo factor varies. Also varies with soil conditions – black soil, red soil. Sea Breeze/land breeze – relates to temperature gradient [soil quickly warm up and quickly release the heat and water slowly warm up and slowly release heat] and general circulation pattern existing in that area plays the major role in advection.

      Response to Moderator

      See some of my publications for information only:

      Reddy, S.J., (1993): Agroclimatic/Agrometeorological Techniques: As applicable to Dry-land Agriculture in Developing Countries, www.scribd.com/Google Books, 205p; Book Review appeared in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 67 (1994):325-327.
      Reddy, S.J., (2002): Dry-land Agriculture in India: An Agroclimatological and Agrometeorological Perspective, BS Publications, Hyderabad, 429.
      Reddy, S.J., (2008): Climate Change: Myths & Realities, www.scribd.com/Google Books, 176.
      Reddy, S.J., (2016): Climate Change and its Impacts: Ground Realities. BS Publications, Hyderabad, 276.
      Reddy, S.J., (2019a): Agroclimatic/Agrometeorological Techniques: As applicable to Dry-land Agriculture in Developing Countries [2nd Edition]. Brillion Publishing, New Delhi, 372p.

      2.1.2 Water vapour

      Earth’s temperature is primarily driven by energy cycle; and then by the hydrological cycle. Global solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface and net radiation/radiation balance at the Earth’s surface is generally estimated as a function of hours of bright Sunshine. Total cloud cover [average of low, medium & high clouds] has a direct relation to hours of bright Sunshine (Reddy, 1974). Cube root of precipitation showed a direct relation to total solar radiation and net radiation (Reddy, 1987). In all these latitude plays major role (Reddy & Rao, 1973; Reddy, 1987). Evaporation presents a relation with net and global solar radiation (Reddy & Rao, 1973) wherein relative humidity plays an important role that reduces with increasing relative humidity. If ‘X’ is global solar radiation received under100% relative humidity then with the dryness [with relative humidity coming down] it may reach a maximum of 2X; and under net radiation also with increasing relative humidity net radiation is reduced. That means water vapour in the atmosphere is the principal component that controls the incoming and outgoing radiation and thus temperature at the Earth’s surface. Thar Desert presents high temperature with negligible water vapour in the atmosphere as maximum energy reaches the earth’s surface. However, these impacts differ under inland (dryness), hill (declining temperature with height – lapse rate) & coastal (wetness) locations and sun’s movement (latitude and declination of the Sun — seasons) (Reddy & Rao, 1973). IPCC integrated these under “climate system” and the advective condition by general circulation pattern [GCP].
      Cold-island effect [I coined this, see Reddy (2008)] is part of human induced climate change associated with changes in land use and land cover. Since 1960’s to meet the food needs of ever increasing population, started intensive agriculture – conversion of dryland to wetland; & creation of water resources; etc. In this process increased levels of evaporation and evapotranspiration contributed to raise in water vapour up to around 850 mb levels in the lower atmosphere. Unusual changes in water vapour beyond 850 mb level [for example at 700 mb level] become a cause for thunderstorm activity (Reddy & Rao, 1978). Wet bulb temperature (oC) at the surface of the Earth provides the square root of total water vapour (g/cm2) in the vertical column of the atmosphere; and also wet bulb temperature (oC) is a function of dry bulb temperature (oC), relative humidity (%) and square root of station level pressure (height) relative to standard value in mb [p/1060] (Reddy, 1976). Thus, unlike CO2, water vapour presents a short life with steadily increasing with land use and land cover changes. However, met network in this zones have been sparse and thus the cold island effect is not properly accounted under global average temperature computations. Though satellite data takes this in to account, this data series were withdrawn from the internet and introduced new adjusted data series that matches with adjusted ground data series. Annual state-wise temperature data series in India wherein intensive agriculture practices are existing, namely Punjab, Haryana & UP belt, showed decreasing trend in annual average temperature – cooling. Some of these are explained below:

      Reddy (1983) presented a daily soil water balance model that computes daily evapotranspiration, known as ICSWAB Model. The daily soil water balance equation is generally written as:

      ▲Mn = Rn – AEn – ROn - Dn

      In the above equation left to right represent the soil moisture change, rainfall or irrigation, actual evapotranspiration, surface runoff and deep drainage on a given day (n). The term Actual Evapotranspiration [AEn] is to be estimated as a function of f(E), f(S) & f(C), wherein they represent functions of evaporative demand on day n, soil & crop factors, respectively. As these three factors are mutually interactive, the multiplicative type of function is used.

      AEn = f(En) x f(S) x f(C)

      However, the crop factor does not act independently of the soil factor. Thus it is given as:

      AEn = f(En) x f(S,C) and f(S,C) = K x bn

      Where f(S,C) is the effective soil factor, K = soil water holding capacity [that varies with soil type] in mm and bn is the crop growth stage [that vary with crop & cropping pattern] factor that varies between 0.02 to 0.24 — fallow to full crop cover conditions (with leaf area index crossing 2.75). Evaporative demand is expressed by the terms evaporation and/or evapotranspiration. Evaporation (E) and evapotranspiration (PE) are related as:

      PE = 0.85 x E [with mesh cover] or = 0.75 x E [without mesh cover].

      However, the relationship holds good only under non-advective conditions [i.e., under wind speeds less than 2.5 m/sec]. Under advective conditions E is influenced more by advection compared to PE. In the case of PE, by definition, no soil evaporation takes place and thus PE relates to transpiration only – where the crop grows on conserved soil moisture with negligible soil evaporation. With the presence of soil evaporation, the potential evapotranspiration reaches as high as 1.2 x PE or E with mesh cover. McKenney & Rosenberg (1993) studied sensitivity of some potential evapotranspiration estimation methods to climate change. The widely used methods are Thornthwaite and Penman presented 750 mm and 1500 mm wherein Thornthwaite method is basically uses temperature and Penman uses several meteorological parameters (Reddy, 1995).
      In this process the temperature is controlled by solar energy but moisture under different soil types [water holding capacity] it is modified. This modified temperature cause actual evapotranspiration and thus water vapour. This is a vicious circle. For example average annual temperature in red soils Anantapur it is 27.6oC; in deep black soils Kadapa it is 29.25oC & in medium soils Kurnool it is 28.05oC. That means, local temperature is controlled by soils.
      Reddy (1976a&b) presented a method of estimating precipitable water in the entire column of the atmosphere at a given location using Wet Bulb Temperature. The equations are given as follows:

      Tw = T x [0.45 + 0.006 x h x (p/1060)1/2]

      W = c’ x Tw2

      Where T & Tw are dry and wet bulb temperatures in oC; h is the relative humidity in %; p is the annual normal station level pressure in mb [1060 normal pressure in mb, a constant] ; W is the precipitable water vapour in gm/cm2 and c’ is the regression coefficient.
      WMO (1966) presented methods to separate trend from natural rhythmic variations in rainfall and assessing the cycles if any. (Late) Dr. B. Parthasarathy from IITM/Pune used these techniques in Indian rainfall analysis. Reddy (2008) presented such analysis with global average annual temperature anomaly data series of 1880 to 2010 and found the natural cycle of 60-years varying between -0.3 to +0.3oC & trend of 0.6oC per century [Reddy, 2008]. This is based on adjusted data series but in USA raw data [Reddy, 2016] there is no trend. The hottest daily temperature data series of Sydney in Australia shows no trend [Reddy, 2019a]. Thus, the trend needs correction if the starting and ending point parts are in the same phase of the cycle – below and below or above and above the average parts. During 1880 to 2010 period two full 60-year cycles are covered and thus, no need to correct the trend as the trend passes through the mean points of the two cycles.

      3.2.4 What is global warming part of the trend?

      According to IPCC AR5, this trend of 0.6oC per century is not global warming but it consists of several factors:
      a. More than half is [human induced] greenhouse effect part:
      i. It consists of global warming component & aerosols component, etc. If we assume global warming component alone is 50% of the total trend, then it will be 0.3oC per Century under linear trend;
      ii. Global warming starting year is 1951 & thus the global warming from 1951 to 2100 [150 years] is 0.45oC under linear trend;
      iii. But in nature this can’t be linear as the energy is constant and thus CSF can’t be a constant but it should be decreasing non-linearly;
      iv. Under non-linear condition by 2100 the global warming will be far less than 0.45oC and thus the trend will be far less than half;
      b. Less than half the trend is ecological changes [land use and land cover change] part – mostly local & regional factors:
      i. This consists of urban-heat-island effect and rural-cold-island effect;
      1. Urban-heat-island effect – with the concentrated met network overestimates warming;
      2. Rural-cold-island effect – with the sparse met network underestimates cooling;

      2.2.1 Uncertainty on “Climate Sensitivity Factor”

      The word “climate Crisis” is primarily linked to global warming. To know whether there is really global warming, if so how much, climate sensitivity factor plays the main role. Climate sensitivity is a measure [oC/(W/m2)] – how much warming we expect (both near-term and long-term) for a given increase in CO2? According to Mark, D. Zilinka (2020), “Equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global surface temperature response to the CO2 doubling, has been persistently uncertain”.
      Recent modelling data suggests the climate is considerably more sensitive to carbon emissions than previously believed, and experts said the projections had the potential to be “incredibly alarming”, though they stressed further research would be needed to validate the new numbers. Johan Rockström, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said. “Climate sensitivity is the holy grail of climate science. It is the prime indicator of climate risk.
      The role of clouds is one of the most uncertain areas in climate science because they are hard to measure and, depending on altitude, droplet temperature and other factors can play either a warming or a cooling role. For decades, this has been the focus of fierce academic disputes. Catherine Senior, head of understanding climate change at the Met Office Hadley Centre, said more studies and more data are needed to fully understand the role of clouds and aerosols. With this vital disputes how anyone can say there is global warming without solving this issue; so I said “global warming hysteria factor is climate crisis”.

       

      Moderator Response:

      [BL]

      Thank you for taking the time to share with us.  Skeptical Science is a user forum wherein the science of climate change can be discussed from the standpoint of the science itself.  Ideology and politics get checked at the keyboard.

      Please take the time to review the Comments Policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it.  Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

      Although Digest articles are fairly open in terms of commenting, you must not treat them as open opportunities to post long, rambling diatribes.You have been given guidance regarding how to find appropriate threads.Please follow that advice.

      Further posts on this thread will be considered "off topic" and will be subject to deletions in whole or in part.

6305. scaddenp at 13:01 PM on 11 January 2021
      Postma disproved the greenhouse effect
      

      JPostma - Would have to ask: to you have trouble comprehending the comments policy on this site; or are you just trying to get banned as quickly as possible?

6306. JPostma at 09:31 AM on 11 January 2021
      Postma disproved the greenhouse effect
      

      Here's a video DEMONSTRATING the scientific peer review process from the American Meteorological Society, and thus, it satisfies the requirement that "the science of climate change can be discussed from the standpoint of the science itself".

      www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUNQTyH76j0

      Enjoy! It is quite a scientifcally educational video to watch how the peer-review process proceeds in climate science.

      Moderator Response:

      [DB]  Off-topic snipped.
      
      Please stay on-topic.

6307. JPostma at 08:07 AM on 11 January 2021
      Postma disproved the greenhouse effect
      

      Ptolemy's Epicycles solve Climate Change

      www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkHuTIC-DxI

      Moderator Response:

      [DB] NASA has ruled out orbital effects as significant factor in the observed warming of the past 100 years, here and here.

      Please stay on-topic.

6308. JPostma at 08:07 AM on 11 January 2021
      Postma disproved the greenhouse effect
      

      Toy Models, Free Body Diagrams, and the Debunk of Climate Science - "SkepticalScience"

      www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4CL2_A4-Xs

      Moderator Response:

      [DB] Science does not advance via Youtube video.  As such, your efforts lend you little credibility.

      Thank you for taking the time to share with us.  Skeptical Science is a user forum wherein the science of climate change can be discussed from the standpoint of the science itself.  Ideology and politics get checked at the keyboard.  What matters here is domain knowledge, command of the science and the ability to cite credible papers appearing in the peer-reviewed quality literature that support the tenets of one's claims.

      Please take the time to review the Comments Policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it.  Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

6309. One Planet Only Forever at 07:33 AM on 11 January 2021
      2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #2
      

      The need for scientists to be more prominent promoters of knowledge-based action by elected representatives, as opposed to representatives being ideologically driven into positions that compromise the constantly improving understanding (knowledge) is indeed important (and their potential engagement with journalists, to help them be more helpful, is a critical part of that).

      As presented by Shawn Otto in "The War on Science" scientists need to be engaged in more than pursuing improved awareness and understanding of what is going on in their knowledge silo. Everyone, including scientists should be more generally aware of a diversity of improved knowledge and its helpful application.

      I recommend the Human Development Report 2020 (HDR 2020) as a comprehensive presentation of constantly improving knowledge and its application to help develop a sustainable and improving future for all of humanity.

      Pursuing and promoting improved understanding of what is going on to reduce harm done (with the governing objective being "No Harm Done") and help Others (Others includes all future generations) goes beyond the issue of Climate Science.

      The HDR 2020 is mainly about climate science and the importance of limiting climate change harm done by humans to Others. But it also relates to the other aspect of the Sustainable Development Goals.

      A critical aspect of that understanding is the knowledge that Technology can be Helpful or Harmful. Too many people, including scientists, are under the delusion that the solution to the developed problems of human activity is "New Technology". It is true that new technology can provide sustainable benefits. But, the current situation has been significantly over-developed in harmful unsustainable "New Technology" directions. As a result, a technological development that is less harmful than what has currently been developed may not be a sustainable technology. It may just be another unsustainable harmful development.

      Ending accumulating harm done, including ending over-exploiting the renewable resources of this planet, is a key requirement for humanity to have a sustainable improving future. And that requires a focus by scientists and engineers on developing truly sustainable knowledge and related technology, not something that is less harmful but is still harmful. And that means application of new technology requires lots of research into fields that are potentially connected to and impacted by the application of the "New Technology".

      Thinking that through leads to the conclusion that the highest consuming and highest impacting portion of the population needs to reduce its perceived status relative to Others by dramatically reducing their level of consumption and being truly harmless humans, humans whose helpfulness is not compromised by being harmful - Now, not in the future if some New Technology is developed. They need to be pushing the development of truly sustainable New Technology. It also means ending the belief that Popularity and Profit can be relied on to guide the development of helpful new ways of living.

6310. nigelj at 06:30 AM on 11 January 2021
      2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
      

      Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy @5

      "on the solar and wind — see the reference I quoted earlier."

      Thanks but I cannot find anything in this study on what precise effect solar and wind would have on increasing the global warming trend as a whole. For example what fraction of a degree of warming it would add over a typical time period, perhaps a decade, compared to CO2 emissions. I want to know if its significant and worth worrying about. I very much doubt that it is because these renewables only cover such a small area of land. I might have missed it, so please copy and paste that information with a paragraph reference. You are more familiar with the study than us so its reasonable to ask.

      "About nuclear power — I am against this and fighting on this. In India Hydropower is the major component after coal and in USA it is nuclear power — equivalent to hydropower % in India with coal % similar."

      Why? I see no significant problem with nuclear power in general terms, although Im equally in favour of wind and solar and they have the advantage that they are quicker to build than nuclear and less contentious with the public in many places.

      "Coal power — the dust compensate the heat at the power station. Also water is used to cool some of it."

      Its not clear that dust would fully compensate. Show us the maths in detail, together with supporting evidence and data and sources. And remember coal aerosols are largely filtered out.

      The rest of what you say is just unsupported assertions

6311. One Planet Only Forever at 04:57 AM on 11 January 2021
      2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #2
      

      Bob Loblaw,

      The second study "Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect" reported in Nature - Climate Change, appears to be primarily considering the implications of the 'pattern effect' of surface warming (some areas have warmed more rapidly than others). A specific aspect that is evaluated to be significant is the pattern effect of Sea Surface Temperature (SST). The study compares the warming that will occur with the pattern consideration vs. without the pattern consideration and determines that the pattern effect means that future temperatures will be higher that evaluations that are performed ignoring the pattern effect.

      As you indicate the reports are not inconsistent. The second report suggests that the results of the first report are understating the expected warming because it does not include consideration of the pattern effect.

6312. michael sweet at 22:48 PM on 10 January 2021
      2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
      

      Dr Reddy:

      Barron-Gafford, et al., (2016) find an increase in nocturnal temperatures in their solar field.  Broadbent et al 2019 found:

      "For nocturnal hours our results indicate no significant difference in the 1.5-m air temperature between the two sites. This result contrasts with Barron-Gafford et al. (2016), who found an average midnight PVHI of 3°–4°C throughout the year. However, the PV array observed by Barron-Gafford et al. (2016) is smaller and less continuous than the Red Rock array. Their PV air temperature measurement was contained within a continuous field of PV modules with a horizontal extent no larger than 2 ha (~230 m × 90 m). There are also structures and impervious surfaces within 30 m of the edge of the solar modules, suggesting their air temperature measurements may have been affected by advection from adjacent impervious areas." my emphasis

      Broadbent et al suggest that the increase in temperature measured by Barron-Gafford et al might be due to the small size of the array they measured and its location near other buildings.  They both apparently find a small increase in daytime temperatures near the solar array.  Both studies suggest more research is necessary to determine excatly how solar fields affect temperature.  Both studies were conducted in the Arizona dessert.  Other environments likely will have different effects.

      As Nigelj points out, only a small amount of the global surface is required to generate all required power for civilization.  Even if the temperature increase was 2C for the entire day, which is more than what was measured, the global increase in average temperature would be negligible.  Small local temperature increases around wind arrays are similarly not significant on a global scale.

6313. Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy at 21:46 PM on 10 January 2021
      2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
      

      nigelj

      on the solar and wind — see the reference I quoted earlier.

      About nuclear power — I am against this and fighting on this. In India Hydropower is the major component after coal and in USA it is nuclear power — equivalent to hydropower % in India with coal % similar.

      Coal power — the dust compensate the heat at the power station. Also water is used to cool some of it.

      CO2 levels in SH are nearly one-third of NH. Also prior to 1960 a smooth increasing CO2 curve is an hypothetical curve. 

      IPCC claim that CO2 can cause catastrophic global warming. Because CO2 is not capable of causing significant global warming by itself, their contention is that increased CO2 raises temperature slightly and that produces an increase in water vapour, which does have the capability of raising atmospheric temperature. However, it is not the case, and on the contrary water vapour/relative humidity controls the energy coming from the Sun that controls the temperature at the ground. Since 1960 with the steadily rising irrigated agriculture and development of water resources caused steady rise in water vapour in the atmosphere but it has short life – not cumulative like carbon dioxide. That means under cold-island effect the temperature must decrease. This was recorded in satellite data. But later this data series were withdrawn from the internet and introduced new data series that matches with adjusted ground data series. Also annual state-wise temperature data series where intensive agriculture practice exists, namely Punjab, Haryana & UP belt showed decreasing trend in annual average temperature. Also climate sensitivity factor that converts CO2 in to heat/temperature is heuristic so far. Also the trend in global average annual temperature is not global warming but it is a part of trend is global warming that to based on adjusted data series.

      A recent report states that CO2 level of 1970 was the height in the last 800,000 years — which is false observation. In fact CO2 measurements started around 1960 — According to WMO Fact Sheet 4 of August 1989— 45 stations of which 3 from SH and no station in tropics.

      According to Freja Vamborg, a senior scientist at C3S, it is unquestionably an alarming sign that May 2020 has been the warmest month on record globally. However, even more concerning is the facts that average temperatures of the last 12 months have become one of the hottest 12-month-periods ever recorded in our dataset. Of course, this does not as such represent a long-term climate trend, as monthly temperature deviations vary, and some regions showed below average conditions. May 2020 tied with May 2016 for average global land and ocean temperatures, while April 2020 was on par with April 2016 for the hottest temperatures since records began in 1880. The global average temperature for May 2020 was 15.7oC (60.3oF), according to two independent measurements by the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) included in the State of the Climate: Global Climate Report for May 2020. -— Both studies found abnormalities over Siberia and the Arctic Ocean with temperatures about 10.0oC (18oF) above average for this time of the year. That means these part of irregular variation part of natural variability. This is nothing to do with the CO2 linked global warming.

      Moderator Response:

      [BL] You are making a lot of assertions without evidence or supporting citations. Making many different assertions in a single comment makes it difficult to engage in constructive discussion.

      At Skeptical Science, you can find specific threads where individual claims can be discussed. Please us the Search box to find appropriate thread, or check out the Arguments section from the menu to find where common claims are debunked.

      For starters, you can find responses to many of your claims on some of the following threads:

      The role of water vapour as a greenhouse gas

      The different lines of evidence that the planet is warming

      It's not warming

      It's natural

      CO2 measurements are unreliable

      Land use effects

      It's something other than CO2

      It's microsite influences

      There is no correlation between CO2 and temperature

      It's internal variability

      It's waste heat

       

6314. nigelj at 17:17 PM on 10 January 2021
      2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
      

      Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy @3

      Is the warming effect of solar and wind farms significant? For example you would need to show calcs and evidence of how much it would effect average global temperatures. Its just that even if solar power is the only source of power globally, it covers less than 2% of global land area, so its hard to see it having much effect. You need to prove otherwise.

      How does the heat generated by solar and wind power compare to coal fired plant and nuclear power? Again this would need some evidence and calcs.

6315. Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy at 14:25 PM on 10 January 2021
      2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
      

      Philipee

      The renewable energy production systems like Photovoltaic (PV) Solar Power Plants & Wind power plants as they come under land use and land cover changes part of human induced local weather changes. Similar to urban-heat-island effect, larger solar power plant create “Photovoltaic Heat-Island Effect” but it is a constant factor unlike urban heat island effect that steadily rises with city expansion. Barron-Gafford, et al., (2016) presented a study that “Larger solar power plants increase local temperatures — We examined the PVHI empirically with experiments that spanned three biomes. We found temperatures over a PV plant were regularly 3–4 °C warmer than wildlands at night, which is in direct contrast to other studies based on models that suggested that PV systems should decrease ambient temperatures.” Wind energy systems showed an increase in night temperatures and decrease in day temperature but day time heat is transported to neighbouring areas and thus increase in temperature there.

6316. Bob Loblaw at 12:18 PM on 10 January 2021
      2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #2
      

      Jonas:

      Are you thinking of the two studies discussed in the following blog post over at And Then There's Physics?

      https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2021/01/08/warming-commitments/

      The key is that the first title you mention says that if emissions go to zero, atmospheric CO2 will start to decrease and temperatures will quickly stabilize. With no further emissions from fossil fuels, natural uptake of CO2 will be able to absorb some of the current atmospheric CO2.

      The second statement is based on a study where emissions continue at a slow rate, so that atmospheric CO2 stops rising but remains at current levels. In that case, temperatures will continue to rise for while. because global climate has not stabilized yet at current CO2 levels.

      The two scenarios are not incompatible.

6317. Jonas at 11:32 AM on 10 January 2021
      2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #2
      

      As a lay person I am confused:

      Sun: Many Scientists Now Say Global Warming Could Stop Relatively Quickly After Emissions Go to Zero

      Tue: Global Warming Already Baked In Will Blow Past Climate Goals, a New Study Says

6318. Philippe Chantreau at 01:56 AM on 10 January 2021
      2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
      

      sjreddy,

      This: "the solar & wind power fields raise the temperature" needs to be more specific, detailed, and substantiated. Explanation and peer-reviewed references are necessary.

6319. Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy at 00:00 AM on 10 January 2021
      2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #1
      

      Even if CO2 is zero rise, the solar & wind power fields raise the temperature.  How you are accounting this. This is nothing to do with greenhouse effect.  It appears the main issue is profit driven power production competitions.

      sjreddy

6320. Wol at 10:50 AM on 9 January 2021
      Covid-19 and Climate Change Will Remain Inextricably Linked, Thanks to the Parallels (and the Denial)
      

      It's not so much outright denial as Oreske's syndrome of promoting doubt. As the tobacco industry realised, denial of factual evidence doesn't win in the long term: putting the expert opinion in some doubt does amongst those who have an inbuilt denial mechanism.

      Comes to the same thing in the end, though.

6321. Doug Bostrom at 05:28 AM on 9 January 2021
      Covid-19 and Climate Change Will Remain Inextricably Linked, Thanks to the Parallels (and the Denial)
      

      Perhaps the missing type of intellectual horsepower missing in this case is that of imagination?

      It needs a little imagination to track external costs imposed by full exercise of personal "liberty."

      Another point of confusion here in the United States, at least: by "liberty," the people who framed our various founding documents were not talking about liberty to end one's sewer pipe on a neighbor's property. They were thinking about freedom of thought, expression, and religion. But this distinction has been the subject of what might be termed a misinformation campaign, to the point that many self-described conservatives now believe that liberty to impose external costs on others is actually a superior priority to the types of liberties the founders were setting down on paper. 

6322. nigelj at 06:15 AM on 8 January 2021
      Covid-19 and Climate Change Will Remain Inextricably Linked, Thanks to the Parallels (and the Denial)
      

      Yes there is clearly considerable denial about both the climate science issue and the covid 19 issue. The denial looks almost about equal and equally depressing. I guess the only way is up. Polling by pew research does suggest climate science denial is slowly reducing.

      I think one of the big drivers of denial about the problems of both issues is just lack of intellectual horsepower, but another driver relates to personal liberty. Those on the right and conservative end of politics in America seem very strong on personal liberty and for example many clearly resent being made to wear masks and socially distance and avoid crowds. Those on the left / liberal (ironically) end of the spectrum seem happy enough to compromise and wear masks, seemingly more concerned about safety. It just seems to be quite a different mindset to me.

      Obviously its not a black and white issue because we all have some desire for both liberty and safety, but its clearly become very tribal, polarised and non compromising where any imposition on liberty is seen as the work of the devil, which is of course crazy.

      And perhaps as a result those that favour liberty attack the science behind both the climate issue and covid 19 issue to try to create the impression there is no reason to restrict liberty.

      I have to admit I dont want this covid thing as an older guy and I'm happy to compromise a little bit on liberty, knowing its temporary, and it mystifies me why people would see mask wearing as some sort of stalinist imposition tearing at the heart of our reason for existence. I value liberty rather a lot, but the way some people view the liberty issue and resent temporary, moderate, commonsense, and effective restrictions looks strange to me.

      There is resistance to mitigation of both climate change and covid 19, but it is clearly greater with climate mitigation, while covid 19 has at least resulted in some pretty tough measures. It looks to me like people have a much stronger more urgent response to the covid 19 issue echoing commentary by pscychologists that suggest our brains are wired up to react more strongly to immediate and huge threats, rather than slow moving train wrecks like climate change. Its hard to see how we change this, but with climate change becoming more and more obvious this could motivate change, and perhaps more focus could go on the wider benefits of climate mitigation solutions as a motivational tool.

6323. Fred Torssander at 04:25 AM on 7 January 2021
      CO2 emissions do not correlate with CO2 concentration
      

      Thanks for your encouragement. I wrote to NOAA and got their table for the diagram on LINK. 

      

      It goes back to 1751 and is unbroken series. I will try to fix the change back and forth at the oil crisis by moving the time lag. The reason for my scepticism towards emission data is that there is a trade war on, and statistics is a rather cheap and efficient way to confuse the enemy. LINK

      Moderator Response:

      [DB]  Shortened and hyperlinked URLS breaking Recent Comments thread formatting.  Inserted image.

6324. MA Rodger at 03:13 AM on 7 January 2021
      CO2 emissions do not correlate with CO2 concentration
      

      Fred Torssander @10,

      Unless looking at the latitudinal trends (so looking at the annual wobble is disappeared at the south pole or the year-plus time lag between northern and southern hemisphere CO2 values), I haven't found the identification of time-lags possible due to the effect of ENSO and volcanic erruptions. So identifying levels of stored FF through a less-than vigorous rise in CO2 does sound a step too far. So best of luck with that.

      If you are asking for annual data back to 1900, you evidently aren't yet using the Global Carbon Project data. The GCP's 'historic' data sheet gives values for FF emissions and atmospheric 'growth' back to1750 and Land Use net emissions back to 1850.

6325. Fred Torssander at 22:11 PM on 6 January 2021
      CO2 emissions do not correlate with CO2 concentration
      

      I have tried comparing ghg emissions and atmospheric CO2 (yearly figures) in an x-y diagram to get a picture of the degree of coupling, time lag between emission and atmospheric concentration and the effects of economic- politic- and distributioncrises. But the data I have used is not the same as you. And I also find interesting differences between the period before the oil-crisis in the 1970-ies and aftewards. I think the storing and later use of oil and coal can have an impact. As well as strategic planning. Can you recommend any continous sources of data for lets say the period from 1900 up until today, for (anthropogenic) GHG emissions and atmospheric CO2?

6326. nigelj at 07:21 AM on 6 January 2021
      Is Climate Action... Winning..?
      

      Good video climate adam. I think the climate 'pledges' countries have made are about as convincing as a new years resolution. So not very convincing. Yes its a step fowards to have made a big pledge, but like with new years resolutions its going to require a lot more actual action and we are almost running out of time. 

      This years temperatures are very high.  Hansen thinks the last 10 years show warming is accelerating here.

6327. edevans at 02:23 AM on 5 January 2021
      Climate Change: The Science and Global Impact - a MOOC presented by Michael Mann
      

      This sounds like really important learning opportunities. I'm going to pass on the $40, though, considering the pandemic, work, and such. Still, I'm pleased to have this opportunity to sign my name to this important exercise to learn about climate science.

6328. bjchip at 04:07 AM on 4 January 2021
      It's not bad
      

      You could add a link to this one - 

      https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14747731.2020.1807856

      An economist's takedown of an economist's view of climate.  Highly recommend. 

      Moderator Response:

      [BL] Link activated.

      The web software here does not automatically create links. You can do this when posting a comment by selecting the "insert" tab, selecting the text you want to use for the link, and clicking on the icon that looks like a chain link. Add the URL in the dialog box.

6329. michael sweet at 22:34 PM on 2 January 2021
      All Renewable Energy Plan for Europe
      

      This news article from Politico (a USA news web site) states that the renewable energy sector has expanded under President Trump even though his administration has done as much as possible to support fossil fuels.  At the same time fossil fuel companies are going bankrupt or shrinking operations.  Fossil fuel operations have always been boom and bust so that is not really a surprise. 

      Biden has stated that his administration will support renewable energy to help the environment.

      The expansion of renewable energy seems to be because renewable energy is now the cheapest energy.  Companies also see the writing on the wall that renewable energy will be the energy source of the future so most companies are increasing investments in renewable and reducing investments in fossil fuels.

      10 years ago we all hoped this type of change would occur but it seemed unlikely because renewable energy was too expensive.  Hopefully the shift in cost of renewable energy will be in time to limit the damage from climate change.

6330. One Planet Only Forever at 10:00 AM on 2 January 2021
      The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year
      

      Rinuda @11,

      Though even a temporary increase of global warming over 1.5 C would create serious weather problems, there is an important difference between CO2 released by grass, brush or forest fires and ghgs released by melting permafrost.

      The CO2 released by fires could be removed from the atmosphere by future regrowth of what was burned, making it only a temporary increase. And if some of that CO2 gets absorbed by the oceans before the regrowth grabs it then, after significant regrowth, there could be a small net reduction of CO2 levels. However, there is the harm of increased CO2 absorbed by the oceans.

      Refreezing the permafrost will not draw the released ghgs back onto the frozen ground. That released ghg would remain as excess in the environment.

6331. Eclectic at 21:57 PM on 1 January 2021
      2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #52
      

      As it is the New Year today, perhaps there is room for some lighter revue.

      Yes, the Covid-19 situation is dire, but at least we have hopes that some moral and intellectual sanity will be gaining strength from later this month in the District of Columbia.

      And even in the darkest times of 2020, there was always the Bedlam entertainment regularly found on the WattsUpWithThat  blogsite.  

      I am a reader of WUWT  (a blog which, to avoid nausea, is best digested in tiny amounts per day . . . or, alternatively, should be skimmed through at high speed).   But for the end of 2020, I noted there was one recent article by a guest author whom I shall call "W".

      W was vexed to learn that Wikipedia described WUWT  as "a blog promoting climate change denial" [and] ... accommodating "beliefs that are in opposition to the scientific consensus".

      W was appalled at Wikipedia's failure to understand the real nature of [modern] science, and at Wikipedia's failure to appreciate how WUWT  is valuable as a place [one of the few places in the world]  "where scientific ideas of all kinds can be most critically examined and publicly peer-reviewed in a modern efficient manner".

      Now I like W ~ he is clever and at times humorous, though rather deficient in insight.  He also tends to digress off the topic.  And in this case, he digressed so far that he forgot to actually debunk Wikipedia's assertion.

      Equally entertaining, were many of the subsequent responding comments ~ as typical displaying the assertions that the formal peer-review in journals was a nefarious & malign influence on true science.  And that anything within the modern scientific consensus must automatically be wrong.  And that "the scientific societies have betrayed science".

      (These attitudes are almost universal at WUWT.   Along with the frequent assertion that AGW is not only incorrect, but is a conspiracy & hoax & stalking horse ~ for the imposition of a Communist World Government dedicated to the destruction of mankind's freedoms.)

      WUWT  is a treasure-box of beliefs that the modern rapid (yet simultaneously non-existent)  global warming is unconnected with CO2 , and is actually caused by Natural Cycles / or Cosmic Rays / or the Solar Wind / or other yet-undiscovered or unappreciated factors.   One commenter repeatedly asserts the sole influence of geothermal heat.   Another, the sole influence of tidal heat energy deriving from the presence of super-dense materials in the Earth's core, being fragmentary remnants of an ancient neutron star.

      The Wikipedia statement certainly stirred up the WUWT  denizens.   W's article brought on some 250+ comments, of which 26 were made on the first 60 minutes.   But evidently the function of WUWT  is a healthful outlet for all this denialist steam pressure.  Though it would be less tiresome if it wasn't always the flood of Usual Suspects repeating the usual intellectual insanity.

6332. amhartley at 09:00 AM on 1 January 2021
      More CO2 in the atmosphere hurts key plants and crops more than it helps
      

      Glad this topic came up so recently. Today I was reading a piece in the Washington Examiner ("2020 wasn't All Bad: There's Good News About Climate Change") that concluded climate change will probably be manageable, at least in the 21st Century. It cited 2 main reasons: That the worst-case, hi-emissions scenario is now "off the table," & that the earth is greening due to increased CO2 fertilization.  The "greening" claim was justified by citing a 2016 paper by Zaichun Zhu of Peking University, et al., published in Nature. 

      Do you think the Wash. Examin. article is reading too much into the Zhu paper? 

6333. michael sweet at 03:31 AM on 1 January 2021
      It's satellite microwave transmissions
      

      OPOF:

      Waste heat does add to AGW.  There is a waste heat thread that deals with this issue.  In the title of the waste heat thread it says greenhouse warming is 100 times waste heat.  The key issue is that greenhouse gasses accumulate every year while waste heat dissipates into space every year.  Since the waste heat does not accumulate, the amount of temperature increase from waste heat is negligable.  The heat accumulation from a single year of carbon emissions is not that much but since it accumulates over time after a while it becomes problematic.

      The energy released from burning fossil fuels adds to the energy coming in from the sun.  The sun provides so much energy that the waste heat is very small by comparison.

      If you have many nuclear reactors near each other the waste heat can cause problems in the heat sink (usually the ocean but also big lakes and rivers).  This is especially a problem in rivers during droughts.  Sometimes traditional power plants have to be shut down during heat waves in  summer because they cause too much heating in rivers.  (Wind and solar do not have this problem).

      Solar panels and wind generators also have small issues with local heat accumulation from changing albeido and wind patterns.  These are sometimes hyped by deniers.  They are not significant compared to the effects of carbon pollution.

6334. MA Rodger at 07:28 AM on 31 December 2020
      The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year
      

      Riduna @11,

      The numbers in fig 2 are from the IEA and are just fossil fuel emissions, so no land-use-change emissions (whatever the cause) and no cement emissions.

      The Global Carbon Project are showing provisional numbers for 2020 with the ~30Gt(CO2) IEA number for FF alone in the GCP assessment becoming [10.9Gt(C) =] ~40Gt(CO2).

6335. Riduna at 11:57 AM on 30 December 2020
      The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year
      

      Does the 6-7% contraction of CO2 emissions indicated at Figure 2 take into account Earth-system feedbacks such as increased release of CO2 from the burning of over 18 million hectares of forest and scrubland during the last Australian bushfire season or rising CO2/CH4 emissions from accelerating permafrost loss due to rising temperature in 2020?

      Net reduction of CO2 release in 2020 due to Covid-19 constraints on the global economy are to be expected, but there appears to be no compelling reasons for believing that rapid recovery will not occur – and in some countries already has – eg. China.

      As noted @ 9 above, even a temporary rise in surface temperature of 1.5°C above preindustrial produces a dangerous climate and its onset globally, possibly in less than a decade, could be particularly destructive and disruptive of human activity.

6336. One Planet Only Forever at 02:24 AM on 30 December 2020
      It's satellite microwave transmissions
      

      Scrupple's @33,

      Global warming is the result of the way that increased levels of ghg in the atmosphere produce a higher surface temperature to balance the energy coming in to the surface from the Sun.

      So, added heat produced by human activity would not be expected to change the global average surface temperature required to balance the energy out of the planet system with the energy coming in.

6337. One Planet Only Forever at 02:15 AM on 30 December 2020
      It's satellite microwave transmissions
      

      Scrupples @33,

      Water vapour's role in global warming is well understood. Explanations include the SkS item "Explaining how the water vapor greenhouse effect works" and the NASA item "Water Vapor Confirmed as Major Player in Climate Change".

      The understanding is that water vapour levels in the atmosphere can increase as temperature increases. But some long lasting change of global average temperature, like the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere is required to produce a lasting global water vapor feedback change.

      There are many other reasons that nuclear is not a sustainable energy system, a system that can continue to be used by humans far into the future without running out of materials or without accumulating harmful consequences or increased risks of harm, but the water vapor aspect of nuclear power generation is not one of those reasons.

6338. Scrupples at 12:51 PM on 29 December 2020
      It's satellite microwave transmissions
      

      Would love to see someone crunch the numbers on the effects of nuclear energy and all of the excess h2o vapor and heat those towers are pumping out into the atmosphere...

      Moderator Response:

      [TD] In addition to the links that One Planet posted for you, see the post Greenhouse Warming 100 Times Greater Than Waste Heat. Please put further comments on those topics in the threads of those posts rather than in this thread where it is off topic.

6339. One Planet Only Forever at 08:43 AM on 29 December 2020
      The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year
      

      nigelj @7,

      I would like to clarify two items:

      You stated: “While breathing is carbon neutral, all those people will be consumers with carbon footprints, and many want to become wealthy consumers (OPOF take note of this).”

      Note that I already take note of this in my comment @4 (the start and end of section to read are below – an important point is to Read the HDR 2020 report – I provided a link in my comment @2.):

      “And an important understanding is that poorer people have an ethical and moral Right to increase their impacts, aspiring to levels matching 'supposedly more advanced people', ...
      A changed perception that requires the richer people to be less harmful and more helpful individuals, rather than people being impressed by wealth and power regardless of how it is acquired, is clearly a significant helpful change required in the population.”

      In addition to the lower status people being justified in wanting to live like the higher status people, the climate change problem requires a very rapid ‘ending’ (not just a reduction) of Carbon-Footprints. An ending of unsustainable consumption Material-Footprints is also required to stop additional irreparable harm being done to future generations. That is partially addressed in the HDR 2020 by the proposed adjustment of the HDI as I mentioned in my comment @6 “... The Human Development Report 2020 includes an adjustment of the Human Development Index to reduce the evaluated 'measure of human progress' by accounting for CO2 Emissions per capita and Material Footprint per capita ...”

      There are many actions that can help bring about the required correction of the harmful unsustainable ways of living that have incorrectly been developed by the ‘richest highest-consuming highest-impacting’ portion of the population. And they all require admitting that the ways that many of the higher status people live are unacceptable. And those higher status harmful people who resist correcting their ways of living need to not be able to compromise the required corrective efforts.

      Too often the claim is made that ‘everyone needs to get along so there has to be a harmful compromise because some people will insist on being Freer to be more harmful (the harmful compromise can be claimed to be Pragmatism or some other misleading claim making it sound like it needs to be done that way)’. It is seldom stated that way but that is what happens when ‘everyone’s interests have to be accommodated by compromise – with the wealthiest being the more influential regarding the compromise’. It is similar to the nonsense claims by antiscience people who demand a debate of ‘nonsense opinion misleading marketing’ with the constantly improving common sense evidence based understanding of what is going on. Of course a proper debate requires all participants to share the same high level objective (the Sustainable Development Goals and any future improvement of them) and full set of evidence. A debate cannot include Nonsense, especially not harmful nonsense made-up by wealthier people trying to protect their inequitably harmfully obtained undeserved status. The wealthy have a harmful history of influencing things ‘in their interest to the detriment of others – to maintain and increase their Status relative to Others’.

      The Global Norm needs to become a ‘deserved lack of respect’ for people who have higher status but are not setting the better example of being less harmful, more helpful to Others. It is harder work and more expensive to be less harmful, therefore the richer or more influential a person is, the higher their status, the higher the expectation needs to be that they will set the example of being less harmful and help Others live better and also be less harmful. And if necessary the system should be revised to penalize the people who are wealthier and resist being less harmful. That could be helped to be achieved by a very high Carbon Fee with most of the collected Fee rebated progressively (No Rebate to high wealth people, and increasing amounts Rebated to the lower income, lower wealth, people).

      That means the Norm needs to become a Common Sense dislike of anyone striving for impressions of higher status by getting away with being more harmful and less helpful then their Peers or than anyone of lower status. The poorer a person is the more they can be excused for living more harmfully, less sustainably as they aspire to live better, to live more like the diversity of examples set by the higher status people. A lower status person is excused for following the harmful development path of a higher status person unless the higher status people are setting a corrective example and helping the lower status people improve their lives in a better less harmful more sustainable way.

      I also wish to respond to your comment @7: “To make population growth fall faster you can only really pull these levers and I would say its hard to speed them up.”

      Note that I already commented on this at the end of my comment @4:

      “As for concerns about increased global total population a recent Report in The Lancet, "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study" (Study funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation), establishes the following understandings:

      • "In the reference scenario, the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9·73 billion (8·84–10·9) people and decline to 8·79 billion (6·83–11·8) in 2100."
      • "Our alternative scenarios suggest that meeting the Sustainable Development Goals targets for education and contraceptive met need would result in a global population of 6·29 billion (4·82–8·73) in 2100 and a population of 6·88 billion (5·27–9·51) when assuming 99th percentile rates of change in these drivers.”"

      A sustainable and constantly improving future is possible for humanity. And the Sustainable Development Goals and related understanding like the Human Development Reports present the constantly improving understanding of what is required for that to happen.

      It is becoming more apparent that many of the ways of living that the highest consuming and impacting portion of the global population have developed a liking for will have to undergo significant correction that likely will require many of the current ‘supposedly more advanced higher status people’ to transition to sustainable harmless helpful ways of living meaning that relative to Others they will ‘suffer a loss of level of comfort, convenience, and capital ownership (material) impressiveness’ – they will have to suffer a loss of status. They can still be the higher status people, but not to the degree and not in the ways they have developed a liking to be ‘Higher Status People’.

      I understand that many people will not like those limits being imposed on them. And I understand that many of them will not accept being told they are acting unacceptably harmfully. But they don't have to agree to the changes. Compromising for 'their interests' will just cause more harm to be done to the future of humanity (like compromising climate science points does not need to happen just to appease an elected representative or their supporters). Common Sense Understanding is that the future of humanity requires a clear global governance acceptance that Harm Done is not justified by Benefits Obtained, and there is nothing to debate about that.

6340. Riduna at 15:50 PM on 28 December 2020
      The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year
      

      Nigel @ 7

      The problem is that population is continuing to grow and is responsible for growth in greenhouse gas emissions at a rate which could see global mean temperature exceed 1.5°C above the preindustrial before 2030 – despite a Covid-19 induced temporary reduction in 2020 emissions. So, the only practical way of reducing emissions is commercialisation of appropriate technology which either exists or is evolving.

      It has been widely assumed that dangerous climate conditions would be realised when mean global temperature reached 2.0°C above preindustrial, hence the Paris Accord target. The problem is that an average temperature 1.5°C, even for a short period, produces the dangerous conditions expected at 2.0°C.

      If we are to avoid an average global temperature 1.5°C by 2030 and world-wide dangerous climate conditions accompanying it, we must start reducing greenhouse emissions now so as to delay, or better avoid, other effects of a 1.5°C temperature rise. Other effects include uncontrollable release of CH4/CO2 from permafrost, accelerated loss of land-based ice with more rapid sea level rise and coastal erosion.

      Time is of the essence and we do not have enough of it – certainly not enough to reduce population on a scale sufficient to avoid the dangers posed by a mean global temperature 1.5°C above preindustrial.

6341. Riduna at 12:08 PM on 28 December 2020
      The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year
      

      OPOF @ 6

      Thank you for your comments.

      My references to technology are specifically in relation to what is necessary to cessation of fossil fuel burning.

      You are correct in pointing out that coal exports have for too long been of benefit to the Australian economy. In my opinion, the sooner coal mining and exports cease, the better. Greenhouse gas emissions can not be significantly reduced until major exporters (eg. Indonesia, Australia) cease coal mining – and domestic use of coal.

      You are also correct in drawing attention to Australian government policies which favour ongoing domestic use of coal and its export. My comments refer to performance of Australian State Government actions which strongly support replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy. However it is worth noting that two of those State, QLD and NSW, are strong supporters of coal exports.

      I do not make a comparison between Australia and China, though I have no hesitation in calling out both countries for their policies where these promote use of fossil fuels. You may share my view that the policies and practices of the Chinese Government are particularly egregious in this regard.

6342. nigelj at 05:51 AM on 28 December 2020
      The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year
      

      Riduna and OPOF

      I think population growth trends is ultimately an important component of the climate issue, but its not a simple answer or big answer to the problem either. There are many conditions attached as follows. Firstly obviously the more people there are the worse the climate problem is. While breathing is carbon neutral, all those people will be consumers with carbon footprints, and many want to become wealthy consumers (OPOF take note of this).

      That said, bear in mind population growth has been slowing in most countries, apart from parts of Africa, and there might not be a great deal we can do to make it slow faster. Some countries are actually below replacement rate, like Japan and I think Sweden. The slowing trends have been driven by people having smaller familes as people feel more economically secure such that they dont need large families to look after them in old age, health care has improved, womens rights have improved and the use of contraception has spread. To make population growth fall faster you can only really pull these levers and I would say its hard to speed them up. Nobody is going to seriously contemplate forcing people to have smaller families or any more "one child" policies like China had.

      Governments could pay people to have small families but money is limited. And in places where the absolute size of population is falling there are worries about too many elderly people and not enough young people so this acts against a desire for population growth to slow. My point is population growth is slowing anyway, but it may not be feasible to get it to slow too much faster than it is.

      And even if fertility rates dropped very dramatically this very decade (unlikely) its not going to make much difference to keeping warming under 2 degrees if you mentally do the maths. It would help stop warming getting to very high levels if we were to miss the 2 degree threshold.

      What OPOF says about the top 5% or so of people being the big emitters is true, and much of it is just over consumption, but Im not sure shaming them will work and neither will lecturing them too much on proper ethics, although its worth discussing such issues here. It might be more useful to point out the virtues of lower consumption, how it can improve their lives in a general sense. Less work, less stuff, more time with the kids etc.

      But I would say virtually nobody is going to cut their consumption to the bone, or willingly settle for low incomes. Money might not buy happiness but it certainly gets close. So we may have to work with the fact that we are probably going to remain a 'moderately' high consuming society. I think we will shift it down one gear, but probably not three gears. This means its critically important to reduce waste, improve energy efficiency, develop better electric transport options, develop better batteries and so on.

      And lobby your local politicians directly with emails and face to face meetings. This can make a difference from some study I read somewhere, plus my own personal experience.

6343. One Planet Only Forever at 04:51 AM on 28 December 2020
      The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year
      

      Riduna @5,

      I offer a slightly different perspective for consideration regarding the unnatural nature of the problem that needs to be corrected, based on the understanding presented in the Human Development Report 2020.

      Technological development is not necessarily improvement of sustainability for humanity. Development that does not reduce negative impacts or other unsustainable aspects of developed ways of living is not advancement. And the current developed ways of living are very harmful and unsustainable. Reduced harm and reduced waste are not Advancement, they are reduction of harmfully incorrect development. Climate impacts need to be ended, and the same applies to biodiversity loss and artificial technological unnatural waste. Reducing those impacts is not Good Enough. Those impacts need to be ended.

      Though nations like Australia have begun the transition to a lower impact way of living, the harmfully unsustainable over-developed nations are still the major problem on the planet with a significant portion of their population being in the 10% of the global population causing negative impacts. The Human Development Report 2020 includes an adjustment of the Human Development Index to reduce the evaluated 'measure of human progress' by accounting for CO2 Emissions per capita and Material Footprint per capita (counting imported impacts of production that happen in another nation). That Common Sense adjustment results in many of the 'supposedly most advanced nations' dropping many levels down the ranks of advancement (Canada drops from 16th to 56th, USA drops from 17th to 62nd, Australia drops from 8th to 80th, New Zealand rises from 14th to 8th as an example that not all of the more advanced nations do poorer by this measure).

      The examples of ‘how to develop to live better’ set by the wealthier portion of the population are not very helpful. And it is not ethical or moral to claim that poorer people are the problem when they follow the development path of the 'supposedly more advanced' portion of the population.

      That understanding leads to recognizing that a major part of the global problem is the belief that 'technological development' is an indication of advancement. True advancement is limited to technological development that everyone can develop to enjoy sustainably, if they choose to develop that way, with total global impacts kept within planetary limits and a truly circular economy with no accumulating waste (As described in HDR 2020 all materials would be fully recycled after very long periods of use - not throwing away new technology after 5 years and believing it will magically be properly dealt with by someone else somewhere at sometime).

      Regarding 'The Good Australian actions' vs. 'The Bad Chinese actions' related to coal. The Australian economy benefits significantly from exporting coal that is burned in places like China. A truly helpful nation would be helping the poorer people in China more directly advance to renewable energy rather than try to maximize profit obtained from exporting coal that will have no value after the end of fossil fuel use is finally achieved by humanity.

      Note that Australian leadership has been very harmful on the climate impact issue, like other leadership in other supposedly more advanced nations, by deliberately trying to impede the achievement of the collective global objective of rapidly ending the harmful use of fossil fuels while continuing to help the less fortunate develop to live better lives. Many current day Politicians continue to argue that less should be done in their nation to reduce the benefits people in their nation obtain from global fossil fuel use, and that their nations should do less to help the less fortunate outside, as well as inside, their nation or region within a nation (like Alberta in Canada).

6344. Riduna at 18:25 PM on 27 December 2020
      The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year
      

      Our immediate problem is not population growth but the imperative of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, largely the product of electricity generation, transport and industrial processes.

      Many countries have made a start by replacing coal-burning power stations, with energy generated from renewable sources, mostly wind and solar. Intermittency problems associated with these sources is largely overcome by pumped hydro and battery storage - the latter likely to become cheaper and more widely used as a result of advances in battery technology now in progress.

      In Australia, the transition to renewable energy is well advanced. Over $10 billion has already been invested in solar, wind and storage, with future projects estimated to cost $45 billion approved for construction. It is likely that domestic use of fossil fuels to generate electricity will become a thing of the past well before 2040, giving Australian industry the cheapest electricity in the world.

      By comparison some countries, notably China, either support domestic use of coal to generate electricity or promote its use by funding construction of coal fired power stations in less developed countries by providing soft-loans through government-owned companies and lending agencies.

      An obstacle to global decarbonisation is the transport sector. It continues to rely on use of oil-based fuels for propulsion and will continue doing so until technology produces solid-state batteries with significantly greater storage capacity at lower cost. Fortunately these developments are possible within the next 3-5 years and are likely to increase range and reduce cost of passenger and haulage vehicles. However electric vehicles must be priced at, or below, the cost of vehicles now in use.

      Technological solutions to reduce industrial emissions have been or are being developed with a view to reducing emissions from processes such as cement production and smelting, while advances in battery technology will make it possible for plant and equipment to operate without emissions.

      There is hope for the future but that hope is dependent on rapid implementation of these measures and their effectiveness in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. If this is not achieved, an increasingly hostile environment will contribute to radical reduction of the human population - and its polluting ways.

6345. One Planet Only Forever at 04:27 AM on 27 December 2020
      The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year
      

      Riduna @3,

      I share your concerns, but would encourage you to consider an important clarification regarding the 'population problem' - the need to focus on the more harmful, less sustainable, portion of the population.

      The Human Development Report 2020 I refer to in my comment @2 includes information about the relative impacts of different portions of the global population, including the following: "Figure S7.2.3: The wealthiest 1 percent of individuals worldwide emit 100 times as much carbon dioxide each year as the poorest 50 percent". In that same figure (S7.2.3) the Carbon Emissions (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per capita per year) of the average member of the 78 million in the top 1% is 146.2 tonnes.

      A break down of the global total impacts is:

      • The Carbon Emissions of the average member of the 780 million in the top 10% is 37.4 tonnes = 29.2 billion tonnes per year (the top 1% are 11.4 billion tonnes - 40% of the top 10%).
      • The Carbon Emissions of the average member of the 3.1 billion in the middle 40% is 7.1 tonnes = 22.0 billion tonnes per year.
      • The Carbon Emissions of the average member of the 3.9 billion in the bottom 50% is 1.4 tonnes = 5.5 billion tonnes per year.
      • The top 10% cause 29.2 of the global total 56.7 impact > 50%.

      And the HDR 2020 addresses the larger scope of human impacts, more than just climate change, striving to get global leadership to pursue improvements of human life circumstances while staying within planetary boundaries. And an important understanding is that poorer people have an ethical and moral Right to increase their impacts, aspiring to levels matching 'supposedly more advanced people', as they pursue living a better life. A part of the HDR 2020 Summary Statement (last page) is:

      "The Report calls for a just transformation that expands human freedoms while easing planetary pressures. For people to thrive in the Anthropocene, new development trajectories must do three things: enhance equity, foster innovation and instil a sense of stewardship of the planet. These outcomes matter in their own right, and they matter for our shared future on our planet. All countries have a stake in them"

      So the real 'population problem' is the highest impacting portion of the population that Others 'aspire to develop to be like'.

      A changed perception that requires the richer people to be less harmful and more helpful individuals, rather than people being impressed by wealth and power regardless of how it is acquired, is clearly a significant helpful change required in the population.

      As for concerns about increased global total population a recent Report in The Lancet, "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study" (Study funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation), establishes the following understandings:

      • "In the reference scenario, the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9·73 billion (8·84–10·9) people and decline to 8·79 billion (6·83–11·8) in 2100."
      • "Our alternative scenarios suggest that meeting the Sustainable Development Goals targets for education and contraceptive met need would result in a global population of 6·29 billion (4·82–8·73) in 2100 and a population of 6·88 billion (5·27–9·51) when assuming 99th percentile rates of change in these drivers.
6346. Nick Palmer at 01:00 AM on 27 December 2020
      More CO2 in the atmosphere hurts key plants and crops more than it helps
      

      Worth considering is that when the denialist lobby drag up periods of Earth's pre-history when things were warmer than today and life was far more abundant pole to pole that was because Earth had no cold ice caps and maybe that explains why the AVERAGE global temperature was higher - but that doesn't, mean that equatorial and temerate zone temps were higher too. Any paleo climatologists around who could confirm this?

6347. Riduna at 12:11 PM on 26 December 2020
      The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year
      

      Increase in a number of indicators affecting climate should be of major concern to those who naïvely expect to live and prosper on this planet for the next 80 years or so.

      It looks as though human ingenuity may thwart the best efforts of Covid-19 to significantly reduce a burgeoning human population which steadfastly refuses to curb its growth in number, its greenhouse gas emissions and its other polluting activities. If Coivid-19 doesn’t get us, climate change will by reducing our ability to sustain ourselves in an increasingly hostile environment.

      An indication of this was experienced during the Australian 2019-20 fire season which claimed the lives of around of around 500 people, killed an estimated 3 billion other animals, destroyed 2,779 houses and burned over 18 million hectares. Interestingly, mean temperature was recorded across the continent at 1.5°C+ above the pre-industrial.

      Much has been written about the dangers of a mean temperature 2.0°C above the pre-industrial mean, yet Australian experience is that a global increase of 1.5°C would be very destructive and very dangerous indeed. Yet we know how to effectively avoid the catastrophe of 2.0°C or the 3.0°C+ increase we are presently heading for. Curb population growth and reduce emissions to net zero – and do it rapidly!

      We appear intent on doing neither, even though we know how to achieve both.

6348. Joel_Huberman at 01:11 AM on 26 December 2020
      Skeptical Science Housekeeping - December 2020
      

      I like the paragraph you wrote on the Skeptical Science page at MeWe:

      How to break an irony loop: has anybody else noticed that even as we read yet another op-ed or news article detailing how messed up and anti-social Facebook is that the only way of sharing such articles on social media is via the usual suspects, including Facebook? Obviously, if nobody knows there are alternatives then we're stuck circling that drain in perpetuity. Among other improvements to Skeptical Science we're happy to break that pattern and hope others will "follow" (hah-hah) by adding a "share" button for MeWe.

      I should add that I also like the way articles are displayed on the MeWe site. The Skeptical Science team has obviously put a lot of thought into your MeWe page. Thanks!

6349. Doug Bostrom at 05:57 AM on 25 December 2020
      Skeptical Science Housekeeping - December 2020
      

      Yay Collin!

      It's a little hard to fully describe how transformative Collin has been for our site code. In any case we wouldn't be able to use Collin's preferred adjectives to faithfully echo his reactions, as he was scraping away at layers of hasty additions glued on by various cowboys over the years. 

6350. One Planet Only Forever at 03:26 AM on 25 December 2020
      More CO2 in the atmosphere hurts key plants and crops more than it helps
      

      ubrew12,

      Tragically many people only look for a 'personal positive' to allow them to dismiss or out-weigh any other information about the negatives of something they want to benefit from. That happens regarding lots of issues. It is self-interest encouraged to become harmful selfishness by competition for status, especially when harmful misleading cheaters can get away with winning.

      The latest Human Development Report (2020) presents the improved understanding of the need to consider the value of the natural environment (non-renewable resources as well as renewable biodiversity) when evaluating 'development progress'. The majority of HDR 2020 is regarding climate change impacts, including impacts on biodiversity due to climate change. Understanding that evaluation of human development sustainability needs to consider 'these externalities to human-centric considerations' is only now potentially becoming more of 'the Norm'. That more holistic evaluation on starting to be 'more of the norm' shows how harmfully biased the 'norms of the richest people and the supposedly most advanced nations with the most influence on how things are investigated and perceived' have developed to be.

      An important addition to understanding in HDR 2020 is the modification of the Human Development Index to reduce the evaluated level of 'measures of human progress' by accounting for CO2 Emissions per capita and Material Footprint per capita (including counting impacts that happen in other nations but are imported - imported impacts of production that happen in another nation). That simple Common Sense adjustment punts many of the 'supposedly most advanced nations many levels down the ranks (Canada drops from 16th to 56th, USA drops from 17th to 67th, Australia drops from 8th to 80th, New Zealand rises from 14th to 8th).

      It is important to understand the fuller story like the presentation in the HDR 2020. That can help argue against many possible claims of 'positive results from climate change (or any other harmful activity)'.

      I try to make the point that it is incorrect to believe that a 'positive benefit' can be justified by comparing the 'positive' with any 'negatives' and deciding that the 'positives' out-weight the 'negatives' (that evaluation is really only valid for things like medical interventions where the person 'potentially harmed' is the person 'potentially helped'. Much more consideration is involved to justify comparing 'positives for Some People' with 'negatives for Others' - positives for desperately poor have to out-weigh concerns for reduced wealth of the wealthiest that still has the wealthiest as the wealthiest).

      I also try to point out that a 'positives for some' vs. 'negatives for Others' comparison is hard to make 'fairly' because current day people, especially higher status people, are likely to have biased perceptions of "Their Positives" vs. "Future Negatives". And there is the constant problem in current day populations of people being biased about "Their Group's Benefits" vs. "Harm Done to Others" (which is the same problem as the current day vs. future when future people are considered to be Others).

      Also, the restriction of the evaluations to what currently counts in Human Economic Activity is also a very harmful way to evaluate things. What is not yet know about the harm being done by human activities 'argued to be progress' can be very tragic for the future of humanity.

      An example of how a biased person could interpret the HDR 2020 content would be focusing on the bits of 'positives'. One of those 'bits of positive' in the report is the reference to evaluations that indicate that global warming by 2100 will likely reduce the number of extreme temperature days in the Rich Northern nations. The measure is simply the expected yearly change of number of extremely hot or cold days without any consideration of the magnitude of the temperature change (if there are fewer extra extreme hot days than the reduction of the number of extreme cold days the measure is a 'drop in extreme days'). That 'Positive' perception misses the fact that the same report indicates the number of extreme days in a year will be increasing in most of the rest of the nations. And it dismisses any consideration of all the other harmful consequences of unsustainable development pursuing 'improvements' that erroneously can consider harmful over-development of conditions for the richest today to be 'worth it' because the evaluated improvements by and for the richest exceed the perceptions by the richest of the 'lack of improvement' for the future generations or for the less-rich portions of the population (those Others).

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