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Rob Honeycutt at 06:34 AM on 18 June 2011Phil Jones - Warming Since 1995 is now Statistically Significant
If you go back to a comment I made yesterday regarding Henry's website, what he's essentially done is googled up all the other climate change denial sites and cobbled together his own version of the same wrong information, while adding a dash of his own "research." I see this exactly same thing time and time again out there. It's this self perpetuating, self referencing, unsupportable mis-information propagating on the internet. And it's not like I even question that people like Henry genuinely believe what they are posting. That's human nature. We want to prove what we want to believe. But that's not science. Science is coming to the truth in spite of what we want to believe. -
chris at 06:17 AM on 18 June 2011Who's your expert? The difference between peer review and rhetoric
Don't see the problem moderator (DB). I'm suggesting that Patrick needs to supply specific examples if we are to consider his assertions/insinuations seriously. I've given two specific examples of real and attempted efforts to bypass proper peer review. If we're discussing a particular issue (Patrick raised "alleged corruption of the peer review process"), surely it's imprtant to address this with respect to specifics. Incidentally, I don't actually undertand what "The person you are engaging is likely unable to sustain comments that comply with the Comments Policy". Are you suggesting that my post will force him to write an inappropriate response?! Can you clarify please... -
Rob Honeycutt at 06:15 AM on 18 June 2011Phil Jones - Warming Since 1995 is now Statistically Significant
Sphaerica... I totally agree. I seem to remember there were some points in very early astronomy where people who were essentially hobbyists made very important contributions to science (but back then, virtually every astronomer was a hobbyist). Overall, I'm trying to be kind and open minded about it. The possibility is so remote that it's hard to even imagine it happening this day in age. IMHO Henry isn't just playing long, very very long odds, he's playing the lottery without buying a ticket... hoping he'll get the winning ticket by walking the streets, finding it laying on the ground. So, yes, you could, technically, win the lottery that way... But I hear you. Those odds are functionally zero. -
Bob Lacatena at 06:09 AM on 18 June 2011Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming
For an interesting (and very well implemented) online tool to see past hurricane tracks, try this out: NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks -
chris at 06:03 AM on 18 June 2011Who's your expert? The difference between peer review and rhetoric
Patrick Kelly at 05:28 AM on 18 June, 2011 That's a dismal list of unsubstantiated stuff Patrick. The peer review process can be frustrating but it works pretty well in my experience. Of course it relies on the essential scientific integrity of those involved, and that may be the something you've failed to consider. You really need to give us some more specific information to flesh put your unsubstantiated assertions. For example why do we need "responses ro alleged corruption to the peer review process"? What "corruption" specifically. If it's only "alleged" why should we care? After all there are well substantiated examples of the real or attempted "corruption of the peer review process", that help us to understand the morives of the "corruptors".Response:[DB] As I told DSL, this nears the line of acceptability. The person you are engaging is likely unable to sustain comments that comply with the Comments Policy.
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DSL at 06:00 AM on 18 June 2011Who's your expert? The difference between peer review and rhetoric
P Kelly, you mean all the stuff that goes with humans trying to engage in the social production of anything? Yah, it exists. Yah, the people who are privileged by it keep their mouths shut. Yah, the people who are misinformed as a result complain about it. Given the human conditions in which the process takes place, and knowing that no publication venue is free from the human error, what publication venue do you most highly respect? E&E? You'd do better by examining alleged corruption on a case-by-case basis, and then drawing conclusions based on the compiled case analyses. Just complaining about corruption in the peer review process is akin to complaining of corruption in national politics. Yah, duh--what's your point? Oh good grief, mods - I really wanted an answer to those questions (even though one was slightly rhetorical).Response:[DB] Apologies, but when someone says "incestuous peer reviewing" that is beyond the pale.
Feel free to reply to the rest, but be aware that this line of discussion treads thin ice with the comment policy.
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Albatross at 05:50 AM on 18 June 2011Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming
CW @10, "We can say that Florida receives a quarter of its precipitation from tropical cyclones." Better, but 25% is still to high. They say in the paper, and I quote: "The Yucatan and Florida Peninsulas and Caribbean Islands also have significant TC rainfall (7%–20%), with the rest of southeast U.S. coastal regions and central Mexico having smaller percentages." At #12 you say: "So, precipitation depends on most critically, convergence and increased humidity. These factors occur only in limited areas of the stereotypical mid latitude storm." The second makes no sense...these slips are tell-tell-signs that you are not proficient in this field, but trying to sound like you are. -
Albatross at 05:45 AM on 18 June 2011Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming
I encourage people making claims about tropical storms trends to please read these two excellent summary posts at Thingsbreak-- a blog I know, but he discusses journal papers. Part 1 Part 2 A quote from the landmark paper in Nature by Knutson et al.(2010), and that has a "skeptic" as a co-author: "...future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre." And a reminder, this is not so much about where we are now, but where we are going. For some phenomena (such as heavy rain, drought and heat waves, increasing trend are already emerging), for others it might well take longer before we can deal with attribution. But instead of using this as a reason for complacency, we should heed the warnings that are now occurring before our very eyes and take action. Some interesting findings by Dr. Kerry Emanuel concerning the role of the cooling stratosphere (a fingerprint of AGW) on tropical storm strength can be found here. -
chris at 05:43 AM on 18 June 2011Who's your expert? The difference between peer review and rhetoric
les at #8 has highlighted one fundamental "extra" element of peer review; i.e. the fact the most studies submitted for publication have already been "tested" by extended peer review at colleague, group, departmental and conference presentations. Most submitted papers of value have already been honed by passing through this process, and are submitted in the expectation that they are already broadly suitable for publication. However, the most important element of peer review, and the one most deficient in the dreary antics of denialist efforts at publication (we could list the tiny set of dismal papers that have resulted) is "self peer review". The vast majority of scientists have a burning desire to find out stuff about the natural world, and have high personal standards of quality and integrity. They want to get it right. So in the vast majority of cases, one can review a paper with the expectation that the submitting authors are doing so in good faith. They're not trying to sneak substandard analyses and interpretations into the scientific literature to serve tedious agendas. Sadly, that doesn't apply to a very, very tiny group of individuals who try to pervert the peer review process. -
ClimateWatcher at 05:38 AM on 18 June 2011Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming
Another point, Eric and CW, you seem to be neglecting/ignoring the increase in droughts and heat waves which are also extreme weather. So, precipitation depends on most critically, convergence and increased humidity. These factors occur only in limited areas of the stereotypical mid latitude storm. Were storms to occur in only one path, being of the same size, shape, and orientation each time, the preferred areas would be perpetually flooding while other areas would be drought stricken. And that's kind of what's happened this year in La Nina and aftermath - the west has record snowpack, the midwest is flooding while the south west is in drought. To get 'normal' precipitation, storms need to be irregular such that wet and dry spells are spread out ( though not evenly ). The case for AGW has merit. But why do you believe that AGW has anything to do with the variability of mid latitude cyclones? -
Albatross at 05:30 AM on 18 June 2011Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming
Eric @9, "This resulted in greater wind speeds, and cyclonic clouds occurring at the storm fornts. This affects winds speed, but not necessarily rainfall." I think I know what you are trying to say, but it is not quite so simple. By "cyclonic" clouds do you mean mesocyclones in the thunderstorm updrafts? Don't forget the role of low-level moisture coming off the Gulf of Mexico, where temperatures were much above average at the time of the outbreak. And one does not necessarily need a front to trigger tornadic thunderstorms, severe or non severe. In fact, quasi-linear convective systems which often tend to develop along cold fronts produce far fewer tornadoes than do discrete supercells, or supercells embedded in a line. So the rather antiquated paradigm that tornadoes are caused by "cold air from Canada colliding with warm air from the south", while certainly true, does not tell the whole story. But I must reiterate what I have said elsewhere-- any trends in tornadoes are really difficult to determine, and I would not say that they are a good example to use when making claims about an increase in extreme weather. That may turn out to be the case, but the data right now are just not good enough. -
ClimateWatcher at 05:24 AM on 18 June 2011Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming
7. I may have been in error. According to this paper, most of the high percentage attributable to TCs is over the ocean. We can say that Florida receives a quarter of its precipitation from tropical cyclones. The point was to frequency ( as referred to in the main posting ), not intensity. Of course, as you know, intensity as measured by ACE increased from 1976 to 1993, and has decreased since 1993:
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DSL at 05:23 AM on 18 June 2011Phil Jones - Warming Since 1995 is now Statistically Significant
Indeed, Rob, it sounds like Henry is saying, "Yah, I made this spreadsheet, and I made this graph, and therefore there is no AGW." Henry, the best way into this sort of project is to take a thorough look at the existing literature. You're going to have to do that anyway if you're going to publish your results (and you'll want to do this if you think the results of your study are in any way important, which you apparently do). Find out how others have measured SH land surface temps. Start your project off by telling us why these other analyses aren't telling the whole story, and why your project will help tell a more complete story. And if you can do that, and if your math and methodology (why did you choose the stations you did and not others?) check out with your peers, then you can discuss the results confidently. However, if you're going to extrapolate to the conclusion that AGW is not happening from the basis of one small SH surface station analysis, you'd better prepare for, as Rob says, "heavy fire." The chain of logic you'd have to construct would need solid links that overturn established radiative physics, observed anomalous warming in other parts of the globe, observed anomalous sea level rise, thousands of paleo studies, etc. etc. etc. Right now, you're missing a few links. -
Bob Lacatena at 05:21 AM on 18 June 2011Phil Jones - Warming Since 1995 is now Statistically Significant
164, Rob, As an interesting aside, I'd actually be ready to argue against your statement that a hobbyist overturning the professional community in science (any arena of science) is possible. It was, once. When Einstein did his thing, the world was younger, less populated, and I'd argue that the sciences were at a simpler level that was on the cusp of being inaccessible (from a "leap forward" sense) to the common man. Einstein may well be the last "hobbyist" genius the world ever sees. And mind you, he still earned a PhD in his field in 1905, the same year he proved his genius by publishing four ground-breaking papers. By 1908, he was considered a leader in (and part of) the field, so the fact that he worked in a patent office and did his most important research in his spare time makes him a hobbyist-genius, but only just barely so. No, I think all of science has moved on to the point (in both body of knowledge, expense of time and equipment, and other avenues) where the days of an Edison or a Franklin are simply gone. Today man has evolved into a hive-mind social creature, like bees on steroids. There is simply too much knowledge there, with too much detail, for any one person to master and surpass it and to surprise everyone, even in just a single focal area of a single field. It's not that there isn't a lot of room for ingenuity, and that spark of genius, but in order to present such a spark, someone is going to have to dedicate their life to a field, starting with hard study and education, and followed by years and years of effort and climbing the rungs of the ladder. The idea of the hobbyist dilettante genius is, today, just one more weak plot left over for Hollywood movies. -
Rob Honeycutt at 04:51 AM on 18 June 2011Phil Jones - Warming Since 1995 is now Statistically Significant
MoreCarbonOK says... "there is no global warming due to an increase in GHG's. Just get that...." I think you need to take a step back from the subject for a moment and evaluate what you are trying to claim. I come across similar statements to this repeatedly when discussing AGW online. If there were any validity whatsoever to this claim it would be nothing short of revolutionary. It would be tantamount to overturning the theory of evolution. No disrespect intended here but the idea that a "hobbyist" has uncovered something elemental that the rest of the "professional" science community has missed is far fetched to say the least. Not that it isn't possible, just very far fetched. I believe what people here are trying to point out to you is that there are very serious errors in your analysis. No one is suggesting that you shouldn't pursue this hobby but expect to take heavy fire from the people who genuinely understand the full details of the subject matter. -
Eric the Red at 04:32 AM on 18 June 2011How would a Solar Grand Minimum affect global warming?
Nice blog Fred. I am glad to see that you have considered several avenues that could result from a solar minimum. -
Eric the Red at 04:23 AM on 18 June 2011Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming
For instance, the large tornado outbreak in the U.S. this spring was largely a result of warm, moist gulf air colliding with the unusually cold midwestern air. This resulted in greater wind speeds, and cyclonic clouds occurring at the storm fornts. This affects winds speed, but not necessarily rainfall. Much has been written concerning tropical cyclones and a warming world, with several divergent views as to what to expect. Kevin Trenberth summarizes the observations to date as being largely unclear. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/308/5729/1753.short -
Albatross at 04:10 AM on 18 June 2011Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming
Regarding storms, a paper recently published in ScienceExpress (Young et al 2011) reports that over the last two and a half decades ocean wind and waves increased substantially. Another point, Eric and CW, you seem to be neglecting/ignoring the increase in droughts and heat waves which are also extreme weather. Re mid-latitude storms in a warming planet, RealClimate had a good overview of this back in 2006. Two observations that they make that have not been raised here are: "One robust result among most GCMs is a poleward shift in the position of the storm tracks (Bengtsson & Hodges , 2006; Yin ,2006). It is important to keep in mind that for the local communities concerned, it is changes in the position of the storm tracks that is most important, rather than the global number of storms. Another robust result is that the NAO in the models tends to shift more towards its positive phase (stronger westerly winds) as greenhouse gases rise, tending to increase winter storms coming ashore in Northern Europe, and decrease them around the Mediterranean (Miller et al, 2006)." -
kmpollard at 04:03 AM on 18 June 2011Who's your expert? The difference between peer review and rhetoric
I have had several “debates” with my brother, a climate denier, on his ideas on climate science and also peer review. As a PhD immunologist, who has a number of reviewed papers and has reviewed many more, I think I have a pretty clear idea of what peer review is and so I once asked him if he had ever peer reviewed anything. His reply was that he had because his definition is that “Peer review is the evaluation of creative work or performance by other people in the same field in order to maintain or enhance the quality of the work or performance in that field.” It’s a cleaver little definition that comes from the Linux Information Project; he’s in the IT industry so it not surprising that he uses it. But his next statement was the kicker - “Nowhere does that definition deem publication in a peer reviewed journal as a primary vehicle for peer review.” When I read that I knew that this was the avenue he was using for all his bluster about the IPCC reports and pretty much any peer reviewed climate science. Of course its naïve in terms of science because publication is our bread and butter but it serves the climate denier so well. I’d bet a dollar that there are a few over at WUWT who believe that reading and commenting on blog posts serves as a valid form of peer review. -
Albatross at 03:50 AM on 18 June 2011Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming
Re #5, Oh boy here we go again. "One should reflect as well that a number of locations in the US depend on tropical storms, directly or indirectly for half their annual precipitation" First an unsubstantiated statement, and second what a ridiculous assertion. How can you try and argue that stronger tropical storms, will be a good thing given the flooding, storm surges and wind damage. Crops rely on steady rains throughout the growing season. Try and sell that logic to people in Haiti. CW, please, and with respect, if you are going to post on a science site and elect to opine about the science, you are going to have to up your game and a lot too! "A world without tropical storms would be much drier." Argumentum ad adsurdum...and not based in reality. -
MoreCarbonOK at 03:49 AM on 18 June 2011Phil Jones - Warming Since 1995 is now Statistically Significant
Henry@Tom Who says BoM is the correct one and mine is wrong?Response:[DB] See here. Tu Tiempo does not specify a source for its info.
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pbjamm at 03:49 AM on 18 June 2011Who's your expert? The difference between peer review and rhetoric
sout@21 "Anyone reading even casually will see the contradictions and inconsistencies in the Quadrant articles and recognise them for utter nonsense..." I think you are overly optimistic. Anyone reading for actual content might, but most people will read it to reinforce what they already think. No analysis at all. -
Albatross at 03:44 AM on 18 June 2011Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming
Eric, "In most cases, the severity of a storm is determined by the gradient." Please elaborate. You seem to be referring to baroclinic systems.... -
angliss at 03:31 AM on 18 June 2011How would a Solar Grand Minimum affect global warming?
Ken #40: I rechecked my Physics 101 text, and it appears that I got the order of definition incorrect as you pointed out. -
ClimateWatcher at 03:04 AM on 18 June 2011Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming
Atlantic hurricanes have increased both in power and frequency, coinciding with warming oceans that provide energy to these storms Spatially, when hurricanes pass over warmer waters, they tend to intensify. But it is a mistake to assume a spatial relationship applies to a temporal one. The theory is that AGW decrease vertical stability. But what of the the tropical upper tropospheric hot spot? It doesn't seem to be occurring, but if it were, this would increase stability. But the energy of tropical cyclones is really an astounding example of the conservation of angular momentum. The rush of air toward the cyclones could not take place without convection, but at the same time, that convection owes it's energy to the air converging inward. The stability measures within tropical cyclones are actually quite weak compared to central plains measures. The difference is the continual convergence helps overcome resistance to convection. One should reflect as well that a number of locations in the US depend on tropical storms, directly or indirectly for half their annual precipitation. A world without tropical storms would be much drier. -
Eric the Red at 02:58 AM on 18 June 2011Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming
Yes, there is an increase in energy and water vapor, but a decrease in temperature gradient. In most cases, the severity of a storm is determined by the gradient. -
Tom Curtis at 02:51 AM on 18 June 2011Phil Jones - Warming Since 1995 is now Statistically Significant
MoreCarbonOK @155, as I explained previously, the site you rely on is not an official site, and has inaccurate data. As you seem to think the monthly averages will be ok even if the daily values are inaccurate, I have checked the monthly mean for May 2011 for you. Record: Tutiempo | BoM Max Temp: 22.4 | 22.4 Min Temp: 11.2 | 12.0 Humidity: 70 | 65 Once again, Tutiempo does not accurately record the official values. So, while it is very good of you to try and demonstrate that Tutiempo's copying errors generate specious trends in the temperature data, I fail to see how that has any relevance to global warming. It's very interesting that you think you can refute temperature trends independently calculated by four different team from surface data, with one of the teams funded by and sympathetic to deniers by using error strewn data and dodgy statistics for just five stations. It is also interesting that you can refute four different calculations of temperature trends from satellite data, one of them from a team of well known deniers. But it is interesting only in what it tells us about you, for it tells us nothing about climate science. -
ClimateWatcher at 02:51 AM on 18 June 2011Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming
Of course, warming the poles would tend to reduce baroclinicity - reducing the intensity of most mid-latitude storms. -
Phil at 02:44 AM on 18 June 2011The Planetary Greenhouse Engine Revisited
But for very dense atmosphere, frequent enough collisions between diatomic molecules can temporarily make a ”four-atom” molecule that behaves like a greenhouse gas. Good to see this, my Ph.D. was on the IR absorption spectra of these kind of entities ! :-) The other way that homo-nuclear diatomics absorb IR is through their isotopic variants e.g 15N-14N - Spectra here. Note the intensities values, and indeed the frequency, before concluding that they are significant to the Earth (unlike some people) -
okatiniko at 02:38 AM on 18 June 2011CO2 Currently Rising Faster Than The PETM Extinction Event
Rob#12, Scaddenp#14 , what is your point ? I didn't doubt that CO2 could be produced by the decay of biomass , I just asked why it was an evidence for a high sensitivity - it is not because you haven't thought of any other explanation that the one you imagine is true. It must be proved by some evidence. Why not for instance some bifurcation of oceanic circulation that could have produced independently a shift of the temperature and a release of CO2 ? I have no evidence for that of course, but not for other explanations as well. -
Chris G at 02:30 AM on 18 June 2011Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming
What is an extreme event? A drought in the Amazon would register as flooding in the desert southwest (US). An extreme event is just something outside the norms. If you load the dice, you can expect the means and variances to change and the rolls which would previously have been rare, to happen with greater frequency. Nothing wrong with the article, I just don't see why it is a point of contention. It isn't a great mystery, there is more energy in the system and the weather patterns, which driven by energy, are changing. -
Miriam O'Brien (Sou) at 02:28 AM on 18 June 2011Who's your expert? The difference between peer review and rhetoric
The comments above are interesting. But I note the article is not talking about the 'correctness' of peer reviewed papers or even the process. What it is pointing out is that if a person is claiming to be an expert, is writing stuff contrary to mainstream science and has not published on the subject matter at all, then what they say has to be treated with extreme caution. The Quadrant series of articles are at the extreme of nonsense of course but a good example nonetheless because the authors are promoting themselves as experts when they are not. Anyone reading even casually will see the contradictions and inconsistencies in the Quadrant articles and recognise them for utter nonsense, even if they've never heard of climate science before. However the authors are often referred to as experts by the media and the layperson might not realise the falsehood unless they checked their publication history. -
DrFredB at 02:26 AM on 18 June 2011How would a Solar Grand Minimum affect global warming?
I blogged about this at Science Blog: Please stop by and add your voice. Scientifically yours, "Dr. Fred" Bortz -
Dikran Marsupial at 02:22 AM on 18 June 2011Phil Jones - Warming Since 1995 is now Statistically Significant
MoreCarbonOK If you compute statistics correctly using an inappropriate methodology, the results are still meaningless. I have already explained why your methodology is wrong, looking at individual stations rather than regional averages is the first issue. Glen Tamblyn has written an excellent series of article explaining why climatologists don't look for trends for individual stations, and explains how regional and global averages are calculated. That would be an excellent place for you to start. The first post is here. -
MoreCarbonOK at 02:16 AM on 18 June 2011Phil Jones - Warming Since 1995 is now Statistically Significant
Dikran says:The point in engaging in discusion with me on the defficiencies of your statistical methodologu Henry says: Which are? Why don't you show me which specific value(s) in my table is incorrect? I will be happy to send you the complete Excel file that made up that one figure on my table. (-Snip-) I will be visiting another station in the SH soon again. (-Snip-)Moderator Response: (DB) Inflammatory snipped.You are welcome to discuss climate science in this forum but spare us the inflammatory rhetoric and tone. -
Miriam O'Brien (Sou) at 02:13 AM on 18 June 2011Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming
I know that 'we can't say' and all that - but that applies to scientists. I feel quite justified in saying that over the past few years the intensity of downpours has increased hugely from what heavy rain was like a couple of decades ago - going back to the 1950s for me, and back to the 1920s for my mother - who says the same thing. We've also had extremely high temperatures never before recorded. Very early heat waves (mid-summer style in spring). And then there's the longer seasons. It's mid June and some of the deciduous trees have still not dropped their leaves! Not being a climate scientist, I say quite freely to anyone willing to listen that it's all because of global warming and I don't believe I'm wrong in that. The science can catch up in due course :D -
Chris G at 02:00 AM on 18 June 2011The greenhouse effect is real: here's why
MoreCarbonOK, Aside from the other faults of your argument, your first premiss is wrong; randomly selected stations show a similar rate of rise as those stations selected for the longevity of their records. At least, those are the results of the data so far. "Rather than pick stations with long records (as done by the prior groups) we picked stations randomly from the complete set. This approach eliminates station selection bias. Our results are shown in the Figure; we see a global warming trend that is very similar to that previously reported by the other groups" Richard Muller's Statement to Congress about Climate Change Pretty sure "prior groups" refers to Hansen, et al. You are being played. If the world is not warming, what is causing the change in the seasons? The physics of the GHE have been established for about 100 years; what makes you think you or Henry know more than everyone else? Global warming has already had its Galileo, his name was Arrhenius, or Tyndall, if you prefer. -
Papy at 01:54 AM on 18 June 2011Speaking science to climate policy
It's not that simple, as described in this article : "One way to look at this is that we have a football team with only one player at most positions, and none at a few positions. When one of the players we do have gets hurt: there are no replacements. You play without him and wait until he heals. The time to heal a lost space mission is typically 3 to 7 years depending on budgets and how many spare parts remain from the last instrument builds." -
Albatross at 01:46 AM on 18 June 2011Who's your expert? The difference between peer review and rhetoric
Thanks all for the insightful posts. Funny that just when the main post titled, "Who's your expert? The difference between peer review and rhetoric" was published, a renowned "skeptic" (Pat Michaels) came out with his rather inane (and at times juvenile) opinion piece in Forbes magazine (linked to @2 above). His diatribe shows that Pat Michaels is an expert in rhetoric and deception, and to that end is doing his utmost to sabotage the peer-review process by fabricating controversy and deliberately misinforming the public. One thing people ought to keep in mind about peer-review is that is is not perfect, never was and never will be, open review has its own issues (I have seen paper sin open review that have resembled food fights, not constructive). The beauty about peer-review is that is represents part of a continuum. Once the work is published it is then subjected to review by all those who read it, and anyone can submit a challenge. In this way, errors missed by the reviewers can be identified and rectified, or if the critique is without merit, the authors can defend their work. So time is the ultimate test, and thus far the physics underlying the theory of AGW has withstood scrutiny (aside from some bumps in the early days) going back to 1896, possibly even further back tot he days of Fourier in 1842. The same cannot be said for papers published by 'skeptics' like Michaels-- their sub par science and the fiasco at the journal Climate Research (when 'skeptics" were engage din pal review; funny how Michaels "forgets" that). In recent years 'skeptics' have had quite a few papers (or the data and methodologies used) overturned/refuted, some examples: Gerlich and Tscheuschner (2009) McLean et al. (2009) Douglass et al. (2007) Lindzen and Choi (2009) McKitrcik and Michaels (2007) (yes, Michaels again) Spencer and Braswell (2008,2009) I discuss this issue in more detail here, with embedded links. Ari has a long list of refuted "skeptic" papers here. -
Michele at 01:42 AM on 18 June 2011The Planetary Greenhouse Engine Revisited
Patrick, you are right, I have some language issue because I am frequently using it only for a short time. Conversely, my concepts are very precise. I introduced ε to take into account the undeniable fact that the planet’s surface “encounters some difficulties/resistances to radiate to space”, that’s, the fact that the whole system surface-atmosphere emits to space less than the sole surface would do. I simply note the fact without doing any hypotheses on what occurs “to radiation” within the troposphere and so my first equation is perfectly correct. Really, I solely forgot to specify that I was assuming a unitary emission for the tropopause though it was implicit because the brightness temperature obtained by satellite measurements equals that of the vertical profiles obtained using the weather balloons. The formula you propose is heavily affected by a your personal point of view (isothermal troposphere and sole radiative heat transfer). Notice, I’d say “your personal uncorrected …” but, so doing, I’d expressed a too factious opinion rather than a skeptical opinion. In any case, it would be more correct to take into account all the known forms of heat transfer: conduction-diffusion, convection, radiation. I never described the tropopause and the mesopause as “surfaces” And I wouldn’t do it because they are two region of the atmosphere as large as the troposphere or, also, larger than it. Apropos, I would like to ask a very important question. Why and how a very large and isothermal atmospheric region, heated at its opposite edges and emitting uniformly is it able to transfer within it the heat maintaining constant its temperature? The tropopause and the mesopause behave as an evaporator-emitter and, for Earth, the stratopause behaves as a condenser-absorber. In this case we have always that the emission/absorption, as the evaporation/condensation, takes place at constant pressure and constant temperature, except the fact that now we have to do with the photonic pressure rather than with the molecular pressure. Again, why and how? As far as I know, I have not answers. Yet, I feel it is important to answer this question. -
kevin s at 01:37 AM on 18 June 2011Who's your expert? The difference between peer review and rhetoric
I want to echo and amplify Tom P and DSL. Peer review is: 1) definitely *not* about whether the conclusions the authors draw about their results are correct 2) not really about whether their results themselves are correct either; more about weeding out the obvious mistakes 3) no guarantee that the procedures and analysis are even valid. Again, the process should filter out obvious severe problems, but reviewers can and do approve papers for publication when they suspect the methods are problematic--but promising for the science in some way. For example the analysis may seem innovative even if currently flawed. If the flaws are suspected rather than demonstrable, or otherwise not something feasibly addressed through revision, the reviewer may recommend publishing the paper as a conversation-starter, rather than simply rejecting it. Future refinements may address the perceived problems. I think Kevin C's "junk filter" is even better than "gatekeeper." But even that doesn't seem to quite capture it for me. Peer review keeps out stuff that appears to have no hope of adding value to the scientific discourse. Sometimes even things that reviewers can tell are probably wrong...are still *interesting*. -
Alexandre at 01:36 AM on 18 June 2011Who's your expert? The difference between peer review and rhetoric
The "skeptic" paper that did get submitted to peer-review is an even better way to show the lack of substance of their claims. They should do that more often. -
Dikran Marsupial at 01:33 AM on 18 June 2011Phil Jones - Warming Since 1995 is now Statistically Significant
MoreCarbonOK I have only made a brief review of this thread, but I think you will find that I said your analysis was "statistically nonsense" (i.e. from a statistical point of view it made no sense). It was you that transposed that into "ridiculous" in this post, AFAICS I said no such thing. I could be wrong of course, but if not, perhaps you should apologise for your calumny? ;o) I also said your approach was a recipe for cherry picking (whether deliberate or inadvertant), not that you had cherry picked. If you pick sites at random and get a result that suits your argument, but don't test that your result is robust to that random selection, how do you know you did not inadvertantly cherry pick (you can't). The point in engaging in discusion with me on the defficiencies of your statistical methodologu is exactly the point in scientists engaging with the criticism they recieve of their papers from the reviewers. Generally it improves the standard of their work. I certainly take that view of the referees reviews of my work and I don't take it personally or refuse to listen to them. If I disagree, I explain why. If I can't convincingly explain why, that would be a good indicator that they were right and I was wrong. P.S. I expect the moderators will delete your post and my reply as they are both off-topic, but do read the last paragraph, it is sound advice. -
Bob Lacatena at 01:26 AM on 18 June 2011CO2 – Some facts, figures and outcomes
16, Henry (sorry, I mean MoreCarbonOK), I followed your link... another flawed, falsehood laden bit of misdirection, I'm afraid. But please take your logic here through to its inevitable conclusion, something you clearly think "the IPCC and all those more beautiful learned people" were unable or unwilling to do, but you have the insight and courage to dare to try. Plants absorb sunlight (heat) and CO2 and convert the two into sugar (too bad all those so called scientists haven't figured this out, but you have). What happens next? Where does the heat that these plants have gratefully protected us from wind up? How is this magical floral cooling not merely initiated, but maintained? Please, teach us. We want to learn. To other readers: Please, please, please do follow all of Henry's links and see what he has to say. Learn to recognize and distinguish real science from "close enough, looks good to me if I just stop thinking here" no-where-near-science. -
Bob Lacatena at 01:16 AM on 18 June 2011The greenhouse effect is real: here's why
41, MoreCarbonOk, Followed your link. The logic there was as bizarre and incomplete as it was wrong. People need to base their own decision making capabilities on something with considerably more substance and less hand-waving than Henry's pool table (such as, among dozens of other fallacies, the completely unexplained and unsupported assertion of the a priori condition that greenhouse gas warming must operate by increasing minimum observed temperatures more than maximums). Henry should stick to playing games, because real science is beyond him. In the future, just as someone who is sharing this site with you, I'd ask that you limit the links you provide to substantive, reasonable and defensible science, rather than quite frankly weird, simplistic posts by Galilean-blog-science-wannabes. -
MoreCarbonOK at 01:14 AM on 18 June 2011Phil Jones - Warming Since 1995 is now Statistically Significant
Henry@Dikran & moderators You will remember that Dikran thought that my scientific method is rediculous...I have replied to that accusation and I have not received an apology from him. So what would be the point in further engaging with him? Anyway, you now also stated that I cherry picked my stations. I did nothing of the sort. Why would I lie or cherry pick? To fool myself? My honesty and honorability speaks for itself. http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/all-henrys-posts-together This is just a hobby of mine and I just thought I would help you by letting you have a look at what I found on my table. there is no global warming due to an increase in GHG's. Just get that ....Moderator Response: (DB) We do indeed get that you somehow feel extrapolating non-official regional data via questionable statistical methodology and using that to hand-wave away net warming measured globally during a time of flat forcings (other than the rapidly rising levels of CO2). Yes, we get that. You are very mistaken, however. -
ranyl at 01:05 AM on 18 June 2011CO2 Currently Rising Faster Than The PETM Extinction Event
No Ice then either and having a white ocean go black is surely going to increase the climate sensitivity a little further. From Pliocene data 350ppm by 2100 means ~2C by 2100 and to get to 350ppm by 2100 means no CO2 emissions from 2017 and then some major carbon sequestration. So what will happen above 2C? Maybe its time everyone who actual feels global warming is real to stop using CO2 themselves!!!? -
Bob Lacatena at 00:55 AM on 18 June 2011How would a Solar Grand Minimum affect global warming?
45, Ken, Too much hand waving. Do (and present) the math, explain your reasoning in detail, and demonstrate your point (as Feulner & Rahmstorf have done). Without that, it's all conjecture and opinion. It's you claiming that Feulner & Rahmstorf are wrong, and you're right, without actually doing anything to demonstrate that you have anything of serious substance beyond a strong opinion that says they're wrong and you're right. -
michael sweet at 00:42 AM on 18 June 2011Speaking science to climate policy
Ken, Many arguments that are consistent with the first law are incorrect, there are many other issues that have to be considered. I am not sure what you are confusing, you are not being clear on your problem. Increased energy absorption does cause temperature rise. The heat capacity of the ocean (which is what relates to the thermal inertia) means that it absorbs heat from the atmosphere and cools the atmosphere down. This heat is then mixed around the ocean. The ocean will absorb heat as long as it is not in equilibrium with the atmosphere. Search ocean heat content for discussion of this heat. Your statement "Ocean thermal inertia can only redistribute heat" is incorrect. Thermal inertia and heat distribution are different issues. This has been extensively discussed on Skeptical Science before. Please read the citation I provided to you above and use the search function if you are still confused. It is not my responsiblity to spoon feed you information that is readily available. If you have a question about the thermal inertia of the ocean post it on a more suitable thread. The aerosol forcing has been a critical hole in the information to determine the forcings of Global climate change for decades. If one satelite did not make orbit another should have been launched. -
Dikran Marsupial at 00:36 AM on 18 June 2011How would a Solar Grand Minimum affect global warming?
Ken Lambert wrote: "Which also applies to the sum of the other radiative forcings causing temperature rise in the climate system." yes, radiative forcing due to CO2 is rising. If it were merely raised from its pre-industrial level and then held constant, that would also mean "the extra energy added is the area under the forcing curve above the starting level", but it wouldn't cause temperatures to continually rise would it? CO2 radiative forcing is no different from solar forcing in that respect.
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