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Tom Curtis at 21:57 PM on 8 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
Eric (skeptic) @440, I have laid down the challenge for you in this post. From the challenge you have made, I assume you are making a challenge to test the ability of libertarianism to cope with the real world. As massive ecosystem loss is certainly a potential consequence of human activity, an argument that the Great Barrier Reef is not threatened, while certainly on topic on the thread of the post, will be an evasion of the issue between you and scaddenp. I therefore request that you accept, for the sake of the argument, that the Great Barrier Reef is under threat as the experts claim. The question then becomes, IMO, can such a loss be valued in a way in which libertarian solutions are possible, but which do not (again, IMO) evade the issue by accepting only dry econometric values, and/or setting discount rates so low that even moderately distant generations are counted as having no worth. -
Tom Curtis at 21:49 PM on 8 June 2011Coral: life's a bleach... and then you die
Eric (skeptic) issues a challenge to find "... external costs [for] which a libertarian solution is impossible". It is probably a hard challenge to meet in that libertarians are noted for simply not counting externalities as costs. It is likely, therefore, that Eric will simply not count the costs and certainly not the full costs of anything we present. Never-the-less, I would pose any example of major ecosystem breakdown as meeting his challenge. I shall take an example that is close to me, the Great Barrier Reef, although the potential collapse of the Amazon makes an even better example. The Great Barrier Reef is threatened by two climate change issues, rising sea water temperatures and reducing ph levels (acidification). It has been shown that temperature increases greater than 2 degrees above the industrial average, combined with atmospheric CO2 concentrations greater than 500 ppm are likely to lead to the destruction of most corals world wide, and all large reef structures. Disturbingly these effects are expected right on the "safe" threshold of CO2 increase that the international community is targeting, and failing to achieve.Unfortunately, this means the best chance for survival of the Great Barrier Reef is that the scientists studying this issue are wrong. That is, of course, possible. Scientists are wrong from time to time - but you don't get rich by betting against the consensus of scientific opinion. Consequently I think Queensland's largest conventional economic asset (coal) is going to destroy Queensland's actual greatest asset (outside of its population). So, the challenge to Eric is to cost out such a loss in a way that is not transparently undervaluing the reef.
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CBDunkerson at 21:35 PM on 8 June 2011Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
Hi Michael. Actually, I'm not sure that this year will be enough to give us a clear indicator. The volume decline has leveled off or even reversed slightly for a year or two in the recent past and thus if it were to do so this year it wouldn't be clear whether that indicated we had 'hit a bottom' in the volume decline or just be a brief pause before further drops. Like you, I think the volume trend is indicative, but we have to put caveats around that since it is based on modeled results which we haven't been able to validate for the past few years... during which the volume has dropped to new lows. The PIOMAS model is computed based on extrapolating actual area and thickness data over the entire Arctic and thus seems fairly robust, but it will be good to have Cryosat results to check it against. They launched Cryosat-2 over a year ago now, so I'm hoping we'll start seeing data soon. The other argument against continued volume declines is the view that it has been driven primarily by export of thick older ice. If true that would mean that the sharp declines should end when the supply of older ice runs out (as it nearly has) and then the Arctic sea ice would hang on for a few more decades along the declining extent curve. However, I question the accuracy of this 'export driven' view given that we have seen large chunks of thick ice melting out within the Arctic basin. Export certainly plays a role, but I think we are also seeing the impact of rising water temperatures melting the ice in situ... which would continue, and indeed accelerate, after the thicker ice is gone. -
michael sweet at 21:07 PM on 8 June 2011Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
CBD: Both of your sites are excellent and update once a month. SEARCH is supposed to come out with their first projections around June 10-12 and PIOMAS has been updating around the 15-18 recently. The disparity between volume and area are very interesting. We should see one of your two options start to take effect this year. Which one do you guess? The volume trend looks strong to me. -
CBDunkerson at 20:55 PM on 8 June 2011Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
Two additional sites of interest: SEARCH arctic ice predictions - This site collects and displays various estimates of what the September average extent will be. Estimates are posted in June, July, and August to incorporate weather impacts as the season progresses. They are finishing up the June estimates now and will likely be posting the first projection estimates in the next few weeks. PIOMAS ice volume model results - Currently the best available estimate of total arctic sea ice volume. I'm hoping we will start seeing Cryosat-2 data some time soon to double check the PIOMAS calculations. As to the accuracy of predictions... weather plays a huge role and thus getting an accurate result in any given year is mostly luck. However, there have been clearly declining trends in ice extent and volume. What I find interesting is that the volume trend is declining at a much greater rate than the extent trend has thus far. Indeed, if the volume trend continued we'd be looking at 0% arctic sea ice at the end of the melt season some time between 2012 and 2020 (depending on how far back we go in computing the trendline)... while the extent trend doesn't hit zero for a couple more decades at least. Logically this disparity cannot continue much longer: the volume trend will either level off or the extent trend will start plummeting. -
skywatcher at 20:43 PM on 8 June 2011Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
Back to Arctic ice (Cadbury's is my favourite brand of chocolate BTW, and one that tends to melt with warming, whatever the cause...). Some interesting measurements of Arctic ice loss showing how the average thickness of ice in April has been observed to decline from 1.7m in 2009, 1.6m in 2010, to 1.4m in 2011. This obviously means that the ice which looked perilously thin by the end of last year's melt will be even more perilously thin this year. That rate of thinning, alongside all the other observational evidence, leaves little to the imagination about the fate of Arctic ice within the next decade. It still makes curiously fascinating watching, observing the daily updates from IJIS or whatever other source, largely because you know a car crash is on its way, and it is simply a case of 'when', not 'if'. -
Eric (skeptic) at 20:28 PM on 8 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
scaddenp, maybe the cost of your new airport is beyond your means, but that doesn't mean it can't be assigned a cost. Consider too that there are "airports" in Alaska that service a handful of people at very little expense. The cost for moving people from undeveloped countries is less than in developed countries and those in developed countries usually have the resources to move themselves. What I am looking for from you is a discussion of the external costs without which a libertarian solution is impossible. In a similar vein I owe you a discussion on the estimation of sensitivity in the appropriate thread. -
Tom Curtis at 19:20 PM on 8 June 2011Tony Abbott denies climate change and advocates carbon tax in the same breath
Stevo @11, I cannot find a clear wording as to what Tony Abbott said. It appears to have been, and has been reported as: "The science around climate change is total crap!", but also as: "Climate Change is Crap" It was said at a Liberal Party Meeting in Beaufort, Victoria in September of 2009. Reported by The Australian (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/the-town-that-turned-up-the-temperature/story-e6frgczf-1225809567009) and the ABC (http://blogs.abc.net.au/victoria/2009/12/climate-change-is-crap-tony-abbot-said-to-the-pyrenees-advocate.html). Originally reported in the Pyrenees Advocate if anyone has back copies. In hosing down the story he has variously said:"I think that climate change is real and that man does make a contribution. There is an argument, first, as to how great that contribution is, and second, over what should be done about it."
(December 2nd, 2009) and:" I think what I actually said was that the so-called settled science was a little aromatic. Now you don't have to accept the totality of the science to still think that there is a reasonable argument for taking sensible precautions against possible risk and that's what we're doing."
In the same interview he said:"Well the, I know the intergovernmental panel's findings are now under very serious challenge. There are now a lot of question marks over it. Nevertheless these are serious scientists. And I think we've got to respect that position although..." "... although I don't think we have to take it as gospel truth, which I think has been part of the problem up 'til now."
(Feb 2, 2010) -
Lars Rosenberg at 19:05 PM on 8 June 2011There's no room for a climate of denial
Beware of too much theorizing. A large quota of denialists are in fact reasonably normal persons playing games. To most people climate is a boring subject, but the debate offers an arena for inventing insults and being provocative as a hobby, a great fun to many. Some players even reach celebrity status, like Monckton or Plimer. The disturbing thing are those populist politicians who adopt the stupidity of denialism to win votes. -
Thomas1 at 18:57 PM on 8 June 2011Climate Change Denial book now available!
@jrandomwinner I share your concerns reg the treatment of the nuclear option by some of those who are concerned about climate change. I too believe that nuclear technologies have been unfairly maligned. But from what happened at Fukushima (we now know we are dealing with 3 complete core melts) it would seem that running a nuclear power plant is similar to driving a train that needs a year or more to stop once the emergency brake is pulled, so that the tracks ahead (read core cooling) better be guaranteed to be clear. Even a year after shut down the fuel rods produce in case of Fukushima about 5MW of heat output from decay of fission products for each of the cores. Fukushima shows that guaranteeing the future is a risky business at best. I believe that it is time that we look at the fundamental issue of having to transform from an unsustainable society to a sustainable way of life. Conventional nuclear power does not make a substantial advance into this direction. Decentralized solar power, even if current cost are higher than the nominal cost of nuclear, are the better strategy long term. Plus the current quoted cost of nuclear power stations remains partially ignorant about the true cost of long term safe guarding and waste disposal problems. Decentralized solar power and especially personal roof top generation has the substantial benefit of reconnecting the consumer to the process of generation of electricity in a meaningful way. This will cause substantial energy savings overall as it will stimulate the intelligent use of a limited resource. Far-away big industry generation fosters entitlement thinking and wasteful use of energy. In the end it does not matter what a KWh of energy costs, it matters if we can afford the cost of the lifestyle we are living - including cost to society and future generations. Having to have to make due with 5KW of solar on your roof may inspire positive lifestyle changes resulting in a quality of life that is perhaps better and cheaper than a 20KW grid power supply under current costs and wasteful use patterns. -
2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
RW1@1063> Let me ask you this, where in the diagram is the return path of latent heat in the form of precipitation? Please read up on the basics of latent heat before commenting further. This is high school level material, until you understand it you cannot pretend to know what you're talking about. As Sphaerica described, latent heat is only released when a substance goes from vapor -> liquid or liquid -> solid. Since water vapor condenses in the atmosphere, it cannot release that same energy back to the ground as it is already a liquid. The "thermals" portion of Trenberth's diagram refers to sensible heat. In other words, it represents the conduction of heat from the warm water molecules into the cooler air molecules, resulting in the water molecules being cooled and the atmosphere heated. This will always be net positive from surface to atmosphere per the 2nd law of thermodynamics, since the atmosphere is cooler than the surface. The only mechanism by which cold falling rain can heat the warm surface is via the friction generated when the rain hits the ground and makes its way to the ocean. Is this the mechanism you are suggesting that negates energy transfer from latent heat? That would certainly be a "unique" claim. -
actually thoughtful at 17:50 PM on 8 June 2011There's no room for a climate of denial
The preponderance of evidence in climate science requires a mitigation response. I think the above statement neatly separates the deniers from the realists. It also encourages/reminds/demands that all of us do something meaningful on climate change personally, as well as foment for government action. I am convinced that the solution will come from individual actions (which might eventually tip the government action that is required for a total solution). The reason almost all cultures have public shaming is because it works. Peer pressure is a very powerful, and mostly ignored, method for overcoming the epidemic of doubt that has swept the land(s). -
P. Curtis at 17:32 PM on 8 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
The amount of energy coming into the ground is 184 watts from space(23 of which is reflected), and 333 watts from the atmosphere. The grand total of which is 517 watts. This is very close to the 516 watts being emitted from the ground through reflection (23), thermals (17), evapotranspiration (80) and surface radiation (396). The amount of energy coming into the atmosphere is 17 watts from thermals, 80 watts from evapotranspiration, 356 from surface radiation, 157 watts from space (79 of which is reflected). The grand total being 610 watts. This is very close to the 611 watts exiting through reflection (79), back radiation (333), and simply being emitted (199). The amount of energy coming into space is 102 watts through reflection (23 from the surface, 79 from the atmosphere), and 239 watts from outgoing longwave radiation (40 watts from the surface, 199 from the atmosphere). The grand total being 341 watts. This is the same amount of energy being released through incoming solar radiation. I'm 14. -
Dikran Marsupial at 17:05 PM on 8 June 2011Christy Crock #6: Climate Sensitivity
okatinko@20 You are missing the point, climate sensitivity is to do with a change in temperature caused by a change in forcings. In both scenarios there is no change in forcings, so it is meaningless to talk of equilibrium climate sensitivity in either context. Of course if the configuration of the planet changes radically, that may alter the baseline temperature, but that doesn't mean that the climate sensitivity (the amount climate changes in response to a change in forcing) will be different. Mathematically t(A) not being equal to t(B) does not imply that dt(A)/df does not equal dt(B)/df, where t is temperature, f is forcing and A and B represent the two scenarios in your example. The dt/df is climate sensitivity, not the t. -
mandas at 16:05 PM on 8 June 2011Tony Abbott denies climate change and advocates carbon tax in the same breath
Tom Curtis Thanks for your response. I agree with what you are saying about Abbott's economic incompetence. And yes, you are correct to refer to Murphy's comments about the context in which Abbott made the remarks. However, my point would be, that rather than excuse Abbott, the context actually makes him out to be more of a hypocrite and more of a denier. By placing his remarks in the context of - 'if you accept AGW and the need to reduce carbon emmissions, then a carbon tax is the best way of doing so' - then since Abbot claims (!!??) to now accept both AGW and the need to reduce carbon emissions, then he must also accept - by his own admission - that a carbon tax is the best way of doing so. This is clearly not the way he is now approaching this debate. What his real opinions on these matters are, one can only guess. I have no doubt that he is still an AGW denier, but what he will do once he gets into office (which scares the pants off me) is a mystery. Perhaps pragmatism and reality will take hold - one can only hope. -
macoles at 15:47 PM on 8 June 2011There's no room for a climate of denial
paulm @1 After reading your link I'm inclined to think that both Hansen and the pipeline proponents make valid points regarding ppm values. However the article is really just a distraction piece to the greater point that Hansen is making, which is that investment in fossil fuels needs to be ramped down to allow alternatives to ramp up. How Obama is going to achieve that in the current environment of overwhelming Republican climate denial is the big question! -
les at 15:39 PM on 8 June 2011Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
26/29 - villabolo in English we have an expression "wooosh" for when someone misses a point at great speed. -
adelady at 15:25 PM on 8 June 2011History Matters: Carbon Emissions in Context
Muzz, this is just a brief radio piece which puts some climate statistics out in an easily understood manner. If only other statistics could be presented so quickly and neatly. -
Riduna at 15:22 PM on 8 June 2011Tony Abbott denies climate change and advocates carbon tax in the same breath
The response given to Abbotts comment that "The climate has changed over the eons..." does not seem aproprtiate. Should it not be refuting the assertion that historical evidence shows the so-called “Roman Warm Period” was warmer than to-day? -
villabolo at 15:22 PM on 8 June 2011Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
@26&29: Oops! Sorry for the big blooper. I'm writing half asleep.Response:[DB] I believe les Poe'd you.
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Stevo at 15:21 PM on 8 June 2011There's no room for a climate of denial
rpauli #2 You make a good point. When the movie "The Day After Tommorrow" hit the box office some folks warned that it would numb the general public to the dangers of climate change because in the real world the symptoms would creep up slowly rather than present as a series of specatcular disasters. I thought the general would not fall for the Hollywood pattern of climate change. Sadly, I was wrong. -
Bern at 15:18 PM on 8 June 2011History Matters: Carbon Emissions in Context
Muzz, this piece speaks to the tragedy of the commons. In that sense, it *is* a moral piece, even if a large part of the moral is self-interest. And don't forget that CO2 isn't the only greenhouse gas humans emit: there's methane and CFCs as well, which both contain carbon. Of course, there are some others that don't contain carbon (such as ozone), but they play a relatively minor role compared to the carbon-based ones. -
Muzz at 15:08 PM on 8 June 2011History Matters: Carbon Emissions in Context
This seems to me to be a moral piece rather than a scientific piece, and if this is the case, it is disapointing to see such a piece on a site that prides itself in dispasionate scientific discussion on the subject of AGW. I also take exception to the seemingly insistent use of the word carbon when referring to CO2. -
adelady at 15:06 PM on 8 June 2011There's no room for a climate of denial
rpauli "... the irrational belief that some sort of last minute invention intervention will come to the rescue." This is the "I didn't have time to do it by Monday" homework defence. Yes you did. The assignment was handed out two weeks ago. You put it off day after day 'knowing' that you could always get it done at the last minute. Then you had to do a few extra hours at work on Friday night. On Saturday, your mum finally put her foot down and you had to clean your room and mow the lawns. On Sunday, you had to go to grandma's for lunch - which you'd known about for months. And you sprained your ankle playing footie with your little cousins. So you couldn't get it done Sunday night. If you'd done it 10 days ago you wouldn't have had to worry about all these things happening at once. But you didn't. I'm sure the people who delay climate action are perfectly capable of criticising a foolish procrastinating teenager. But they can't see that their own actions are even more irresponsible. -
villabolo at 14:58 PM on 8 June 2011Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
@26, Les: "The post is missing one important site, particularly given that it is now clear that 2008 was a short upward 'blip' in line with the overall trend of decline. For being right in the money, I recommend this post from 2008." Les, please take time to read some of our articles including my favorite one on theidiocyfallacy of Global Cooling in the past decade (yes, I wrote it): http://skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-january-2007-to-january-2008.htm Also Les; instead of quoting from secondary sources like (gulp) WUWT, you might like to go to a primary source like Dr Roy Spencer's UAH satellite based temperature chart. Here is the latest chart:Here is a version of his chart with trend lines that reveal the incline:
The brown line is the trend line. The green and pink lines highlight the jump in 1995/1998 of both El Ninos (those are the upper curves) and La Ninas (and those are the lower curves). Now please tell me how we're hiding the "decline"
Response:[DB] Fixed link.
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okatiniko at 14:54 PM on 8 June 2011Christy Crock #6: Climate Sensitivity
DM #7 : I have a question then : assume that the Earth would be in a perpetual "boreal summer" state , with a distance to the sun equal to aphelia, and the North pole directed towards the sun (State A), and let all the equilibria be set up, after a very long time. Now assume the Earth to be in a perpetual "austral summer" state, with the distance equal to perihelia, but the South Pole directed towards the sun (state B). The input energy depending only on distance, and not on the inclination of rotation axis, F(A) < F(B). Would T(A) be higher or lower than T(B) ? -
r.pauli at 14:50 PM on 8 June 2011There's no room for a climate of denial
And there are levels of denial and magical thinking - i.e. one might fully accept AGW but deny that it could wipe out civilization. Or ignore the possibility of a Venus Syndrome. Most prevalent is the irrational belief that some sort of last minute invention intervention will come to the rescue. Wait, isn't that the universal plot conclusion for a Hollywood movie? -
scaddenp at 14:12 PM on 8 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
Eric the Red, perhaps you should look at this post . -
dana1981 at 14:04 PM on 8 June 2011Christy Crock #6: Climate Sensitivity
SoundOff - I certainly care. Equilibrium sensitivity tells us the minimum amount of warming we've committed ourselves to. It's also the measure used by international climate negotiations (i.e. the goal is to limit equilibrium warming to no more than 2°C). So I disagree that nobody cares - it's actually a very widely-used parameter. -
Tom Curtis at 14:01 PM on 8 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Grain? -
Tom Curtis at 13:55 PM on 8 June 2011There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature
J Bob @19, I am quite aware that the procedure for identifying the effects of particular independent variable in a multiple variable system is to determine how the dependent variable changes as you change one independent variable while holding all others constant. You in contrast are comparing one independent variable to the dependent variable while simply ignoring the other independent variables. Not only that, you insist on making your comparison where an unmonitored (by you) independent variable is known to have fluctuated by a great deal. The quality of your method is well parodied by tonyth2 (whether he intended it as parody or not) when he says:"For the 12 months of any year CO2 varies by much less than the un-correlated, larger variation in temperature. The data shows no correlation between Temperature and CO2."
Frankly I'm surprised he didn't also mention the daily variation in temperatures. Just imagine, it was 5 degrees C at 4:00 am this morning, and now its 25 degrees C and the CO2 content of the atmosphere has not changed at all: therefore CO2 is irrelevant to the Earth's temperature. Is that the sort of argument you like? It sure looks like it from this position. -
Bob Lacatena at 13:50 PM on 8 June 2011Christy Crock #6: Climate Sensitivity
17, SoundOff,Does anyone really care about equilibrium climate sensitivity other than paleoclimatologists? Certainly not policy makers – it’s too far off.
That's amazingly callous. You would knowingly leave our descendants with a marginally livable planet, only because it won't happen in your own lifetime? The lives of your children and grandchildren, and everyone who comes after, are of no importance? -
Bob Lacatena at 13:46 PM on 8 June 2011There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature
19, J. Bob,I don't know how many systems you had to identify, with multiple inputs, output (MIMO) & parameters, when many of the inner workings were not well defined, and non-linear.
You seem to have experience and understanding with complex systems. You should of course, then, understand that the climate is a complex system, and that teasing out an exact, easily recognized CO2 to temperature correlation would be a fool's errand, correct? You would not expect to have done this with the systems with which you have experience, correct?One of the first things you do, is vary a single input, and then note the output response. You continue to do this with all the inputs, in order to gain an understanding...
Yes, but the only place where this can be done is in models (which is another subject). In real life there are some very clever ways to do this, by for instance studying the short term responses to volcano eruptions, or paleoclimate data, or other clever ideas. But overall, this simply isn't possible. This is a different kind of problem than you are used to, and requires a different sort of thinking.This is not an experiment, this is real life.
Precisely. And for this reason, meeting your insistence on a direct correlation between CO2 and temperature is simply unrealistic. That doesn't mean that CO2 can't be doing what it does, it only means that your demand for impossible proof itself proves and disproves nothing. Unless I'm misunderstanding your request... -
Eric the Red at 13:45 PM on 8 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
The CRU data commences in 1850, although Phil Jones asserts that data prior to 1880 has higher uncertainty. The graphs do show the influence of the 60-year PDO cycle quite nicely when incorporating the 30-yr filter.Response:[DB] It might be helpful to read this. The conclusion:
"Has global temperature evolution over the last century+ been cyclical? Not."
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SoundOff at 13:45 PM on 8 June 2011Christy Crock #6: Climate Sensitivity
#11 - Surely when we discuss climate sensitivity unqualified, we are discussing the fast feed back climate sensitivity, that is, the warming to be expected within 20 or 30 years of a doubling of CO2 concentration, estimated to be about 3°C. At least that’s what I mean. This is a sensitivity that could be affected by short term climate bumps. I’ve seen model runs that had up to 20 year flat spots even using the CO2 emissions forcing expected later this century (just one possible outcome, of course). Does anyone really care about equilibrium climate sensitivity other than paleoclimatologists? Certainly not policy makers – it’s too far off. “About 40 percent of the equilibrium response is obtained within five years. This quick response is due to the small effective inertia of continents, but warming over continents is limited by exchange of continental and marine air masses. Even after a century only 60 percent of the equilibrium response has been achieved. Nearly full response requires a millennium.” – James Hansen here.Response:[DB] You should re-read your comment and think about what perceptions that other readers are apt to draw from it. After reflection, you may wish to issue a revision to this comment.
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Bob Lacatena at 13:40 PM on 8 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
1063, RW1,it's just very misleading and has been largely misinterpreted by virtually everyone here.
RW1, I'm sorry, but this is a laughable comment given how poorly you understand the diagram yourself. You are in no position to make such criticisms of others. Readers are asked to recognize this attitude on RW1's part, and take all of his comments with the grain of salt he has earned. -
Bob Lacatena at 13:38 PM on 8 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
1063, RW1,...where in the diagram is the return path of latent heat in the form of precipitation?
Precipitation does not transport energy back to the surface. That only happens one way. Water vapor gains heat when evaporating at the surface, then releases that heat when condensing in the atmosphere. This moves the heat from the surface into the atmosphere, and that's all. It is clearly marked on the diagram as 80 W/m2 for "evapotranspiration" and "latent heat". There is no reverse mechanism. Do the assigned task. Until then you are complaining and criticizing without the most basic grasp of the diagram. -
Bob Lacatena at 13:34 PM on 8 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
1061, RW1,Even if I or anyone else could actually determine all these numbers (virtually impossible)...
It is more than possible, it's a trivial task. A twelve year old could do it. Tackle the assignment and see where it leads you. If you are not capable of doing the assignment, or choose not to, then you are clearly simply ignorant of the most basic aspects of Trenberth's diagrams, and communication with you is simply not possible. BIn taking that course, you would then abdicate any right whatsoever to offer any criticism or supposed insight on the subject. Why should anyone listen to you if you not only can't accomplish such a simple, five minute, analysis, but also think it is impossible? Gain some credibility. Perform the assigned task. -
dhogaza at 13:33 PM on 8 June 2011Tony Abbott denies climate change and advocates carbon tax in the same breath
Martin:Apparently, because C02 is heavier than air, it drops to the bottom and lies in a very thin layer just on top of the earth's crust and can therefore not contribute to global warming.
Ask him why he's not dead. Offer to run an experiment with him in a locked and airtight room ... -
RW1 at 13:28 PM on 8 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
KR (1062), I'm not saying the Trenberth diagram is entirely 'wrong' per say - it's just very misleading and has been largely misinterpreted by virtually everyone here. Let me ask you this, where in the diagram is the return path of latent heat in the form of precipitation? Surely, you agree evaporative latent heat of water and precipitation is a major surface -> atmosphere -> surface circulation current, right? -
scaddenp at 12:51 PM on 8 June 2011There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature
J Bob, you have to use proxy data because you dont have any other reliable set. Your situation is 19 is ideal but that's not the real world. All variables are varying at the same time so you need multivariate tools. tobyth2 - see CO2 is not the only driver of climate. You only expect the correlation when CO2 is the primary forcing. The better question to ask is, since climate theory predicts temperature change to be a function of all forcings in operation, how well is temperature (on climatic scales of 30 year average) predicted by those forcing. Answer. very well indeed. -
KR at 12:29 PM on 8 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
RW1 - I believe that Sphaerica is attempting to determine if you have actually understood the Trenberth diagrams. So far, it is not evident that you have. And hence (so far) your disagreements have not been particularly relevant, insofar as they have been understandable. -
J. Bob at 12:02 PM on 8 June 2011There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature
Tom Curtis, I don't know how many systems you had to identify, with multiple inputs, output (MIMO) & parameters, when many of the inner workings were not well defined, and non-linear. One of the first things you do, is vary a single input, and then note the output response. You continue to do this with all the inputs, in order to gain an understanding of what is going on within. As you gain experience, one starts to look at multiple input changes, and subsequent responses. This is not an experiment, this is real life. -
tonyth2 at 11:50 AM on 8 June 2011There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature
In item 6 above, charts of CO2 and Temperature are displayed for the last 11,000 years. Despite imperfections that have been pointed out for those charts, it is reasonable to ask the question "Where is the correlation between CO2 and Temperature ?" The same question applies for similar charts drawn for 1850 to 2011. From 1910 to 1940 temperature increased at a rate similar to the rate of temperature increase between 1975 and 2000. The rate of change of CO2 concentration was lower between 1910 and 1940 than it was between 1975 and 2000. From 1940 to 1975 temperature decreased while CO2 increased. From 2000 to 2011 CO2 has continued to increase but the rate of temperature increase has declined. For the 12 months of any year CO2 varies by much less than the un-correlated, larger variation in temperature. The data shows no correlation between Temperature and CO2. Charts of the measured data show that temperature is affected by other factors more than it is affected by CO2. -
J. Bob at 11:49 AM on 8 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
apiratelooksat50 @ 436, I'm not quite sure what you mean by "how far past 1850 can you take the graphs?". Are you talking about: 1- Projecting past the end points (based on the 1850-2010 set) 2- Looking at data sets which began prior to 1850, as presented at J. Bob @ 52 & 391. -
Tom Curtis at 11:40 AM on 8 June 2011There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature
J Bob @16, Translated: You want to treat the experiment as containing a single variable when you know they contain multiple variables. Right, got it. -
Marcus at 11:28 AM on 8 June 2011Tony Abbott denies climate change and advocates carbon tax in the same breath
....and of course Abbott's plans *assume* that the power industry won't just take the money, add it to their yearly profit results, & merrily go about their business. Have the Opposition given *any* indication of how they plan to ensure the Coal industry do the right thing with the money? Not that it will change the obscene cost of the scheme. Also, Tom, lets not forget that just a couple of years before this clip, he was wholeheartedly supporting Howard's Emissions Trading Scheme. Seems Abbott wants to have a bet each way. -
RW1 at 11:24 AM on 8 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Sphaerica (RE: 1060), Even if I or anyone else could actually determine all these numbers (virtually impossible), what would be the point of any such exercise? To discover some new physical law? To discover that Conservation of Energy does not hold at the boundary between the surface and the TOA? If you're trying imply that all of these specific quantities need to be known in order to understand the contraints COE puts on the system, then I suggest you take some time to think about this a bit more. It's not that complicated. -
J. Bob at 11:20 AM on 8 June 2011There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature
scaddenp @ 15, yes, from 1959. Principles of Heat Transfer by Frank Kreith, p.211, section on Radiation from Gases, Vapors & Flames. Tom Curtis @ 14, you quote a lot of estimated data based on math models. It would be better if you used actual data. I'm not thrilled about proxy data from ice cores, but it gives a sense of assurance if corresponds to actual measured data. I don't think I'd bet the farm on estimated model data.Those charts I presented above, can be traced to actual data sets, as well as some of the CO2 data. Somehow I feel more comfortable with some actual test data. I've seen what can happen when models go wrong, due to limited evaluation. -
Tom Curtis at 10:36 AM on 8 June 2011Tony Abbott denies climate change and advocates carbon tax in the same breath
mandas @14, I am an Australian. As Tony Abbott is just one vote away from being Prime Minister, for me his demonstrated economic incompetence is, therefore, also an issue. As, however, to his comments, Robert Murphy @5 is perfectly correct. Abbot does not advocate a Carbon Tax on the clip. He does, however, claim that a Carbon Tax is the best method of "put[ting] a price on Carbon". That, given a Carbon Tax on the table, he will not even negotiate on the features of that tax does show that his earlier comments where a smoke screen, as IMO is his current policy (see my 15). But regardless of the intended take home message of John Cook, I believe the shallow analysis shown by Abbott in his suggested Carbon tax is a genuine issue. It shows that he is not only incompetent on the science, but incompetent on the policy as well, even where he to accept the science.
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