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Comments 88351 to 88400:

88351. logicman at 09:42 AM on 16 April 2011
       Last day to vote for Climate Change Communicator of the Year
       Moderator Response: [DB] "I'm not the smartest kid on the block" That makes... (counts on fingers)... two of us. :) Make that - er - well, one more than two. :)
88352. dana1981 at 09:19 AM on 16 April 2011
       Video on why record-breaking snow doesn't mean global warming has stopped
       Very nice job John and Matthew!
88353. Chris Colose at 09:09 AM on 16 April 2011
       David Evans' Understanding of the Climate Goes Cold
       Jay Cadbury, Richard Lindzen was correct to point out that C-C only tells us the upper bound on the amount of water vapor that can build up in the atmosphere (i.e., for any given temperature, C-C tells you how high you can make the partial pressure of water vapor before the vapor starts to condense into liquid or ice). C-C doesn't actually say anything about whether that upper bound is reached, and in fact in a global sense, the atmosphere is not at saturation. Even more to the point, there is no simple theory for how the free troposphere humidity should change in a warming world, as this involves an interplay between dynamics and fluid dynamics and cannot be reduced to the C-C relation. What's important for the water vapor feedback however is that the water vapor "concentration" goes up with temperature, and if *relative humidity* is nearly invariant over a small range of temperature changes, then that means the vapor pressure at least scales with the percent increase you'd expect from C-C, so both the saturation and specific humidities must rise proportionally. Even if relative humidity goes down by some unknown drying mechanism, it would take quite a bit for this to overwhelm the C-C equation and force the feedback to be negative, and this is not seen in any observations or models, and is completely inconsistent with the magnitude of climate changes in the past. There are conceivable ways in principle to make a negative water vapor feedback without violating any first-principle physics, and Lindzen proposed one idea for doing so back in the '90s but observations didn't support his hypothesis...that's when he gave that idea up and jumped onto a cloud thermostat instead, the so-called "IRIS hypothesis." A large number of papers by the likes of Brian Soden, Andrew Dessler and others who work at the interface of modeling, observations, and theory have shown that the water vapor feedback is unequivocally positive.
88354. logicman at 09:08 AM on 16 April 2011
       Arctic Ice March 2011
       I have been a bit slow with my writing due to illness. Today, I finally managed to finish my April ice report. In it I show how the way that the Nares ice bridge formed led me to predict a too early breakup. http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/arctic_ice_april_2011-78127
88355. Rob Honeycutt at 09:06 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       I'm pretty convinced this is Poptech based on a Mises rant that I dragged out of him one day.
88356. pbjamm at 08:29 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       KR@99 While it is technically possible to change your IP, and Poptech has admitted to being a computer system administrator (or something similar)I do not think that Adam is the same person. They employ alot of the same arguments and technique but the tone is different. I have encountered these same arguments and methods from people I know are not Poptech. Adam != Poptech in my opinion, but they are are equally wrong.
88357. ahaynes at 08:00 AM on 16 April 2011
       Video on why record-breaking snow doesn't mean global warming has stopped
       I haven't watched the video, text being faster, but - I hope it notes that (& distinguishes between) a) getting more snow with *local* warming, if winters were cold enough already; and b) getting more snow due to global warming that causes local cooling, if the Arctic "freezer door" gets stuck open. Where I live, this winter we've been getting lots of Arctic-air storms, so many more snowfalls than usual.
88358. robert test at 07:56 AM on 16 April 2011
       Last day to vote for Climate Change Communicator of the Year
       Done. I'm not the smartest kid on the block and as soon as math beyond simple algebra gets into the picture I tend to lose the ability to follow the argument. But this site doesn't overwhelm me too often and its usually the first place I go each day when I get home from work in hopes that a new article has been posted. In communicating the essential ideas behind the science of climate change to the general public Skeptical Science is at the top.
       Moderator Response: [DB] "I'm not the smartest kid on the block" That makes... (counts on fingers)... two of us. :)
88359. chudiburg at 07:39 AM on 16 April 2011
       It's cooling
       Johnd #151...So should I use a crystal ball or tea leaves? What do you recommend? We are talking about science here man. Can you propose a mechanism by which these sensory-special organisms actually predict changes in climate? Weather maybe, and of course seasonal changes, but climate?
88360. dana1981 at 07:03 AM on 16 April 2011
       David Evans' Understanding of the Climate Goes Cold
       Jay, I recommend this document from Pierrehumbert et al.
88361. Riccardo at 06:59 AM on 16 April 2011
       Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
       Following RSVP, the sun doesn't shine. Don't believe your lying eyes!
88362. Dr. Jay Cadbury, phd. at 06:44 AM on 16 April 2011
       David Evans' Understanding of the Climate Goes Cold
       Can anyone comment on the Clausius–Clapeyron equation? This is interesting to me as Ralph Cicerone made a similar argument in congress but Richard Lindzen rebutted him and said that the Clausius-Clapeyron equation tells us nothing about our atmosphere(paraphrasing).
       Moderator Response: [DB] Jay, I believe Chris Colosse covered that in this post: What would a CO2-free atmosphere look like?, in which he deals with the specific testimony you mention.
88363. Alec Cowan at 06:39 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       @KR #99 I see what you mean, but he only had to answer directly "I'm not that Poptech person you insist I am, and I've never used that name nor I know a person who uses that name nor I am related to such person in any way, so cut the manure and reply my arguments". I acted on the assumption these kind of persons think they are crystal honest so they can avoid giving an answer but they don't lie in a way they know they are lying -they lie and manipulate all the time, but they believe that they're honest and have a fair cause-. Then I asked the question and no answer was given; we got just another turn of the screw following the previous behavioural pattern. Even more, if I remember well, the last post included something about temperature records being unreliable from 1985 on, because thousands of US weather stations were removed from the datasets. Add some background music like "God bless America" and you'll have an argument that is trademarked by Poptech across the web.
88364. Composer99 at 06:32 AM on 16 April 2011
       Monckton Myth #16: Bizarro World Sea Level
       Apologies for the slight OT comment: Might I suggest that the graph in Figure 1 and perhaps also the graph in the moderator reply to daniel maris be added to to the Climate Graphics resource page here at SkS?
       Moderator Response: [DB] Thanks, but John's time is needed to create the HQ versions placed there; I can mention it to him, but in the meantime feel free to bookmark those graphics (I provided placeholders to the SkS locations of the files).
88365. daniel maris at 06:25 AM on 16 April 2011
       Monckton Myth #16: Bizarro World Sea Level
       Dikran - You and others here have a very odd view of science. ( -Snip- ). Perfectly reasonable questions about the impact of the sea level rise are dismissed as unscientific, when they patently are not. I suggest people take a look at this page from the UK's National Oceanography Centre - http://www.pol.ac.uk/home/q_and_a/#5 ( -Snip- ). ( -Snip- ). ( -Snip- ).
       Moderator Response: [DB] More trolling (snipped); DNFTT. [Dikran Marsupial] Do follow the link to the U.K.'s National Oceanography Centre.
88366. KR at 06:05 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       DM, Alec, others - I quite frankly doubt that Adam==Poptech; the word choices appear different, and there's a level of snarkiness Poptech displays that I haven't seen with Adam. Keep in mind - there is (sadly) no limit on the number of people who's opinions, discussion tactics, logical fallacies, and approach we might find distasteful.
88367. Albatross at 06:01 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Dikran, Thanks. Bear with me here. Do they weight the stations' mean monthly temperatures or the monthly anomalies? Regardless, as you probably know CCC and Tamino have addresses the 1990s station dropout issue and found it makes little, if any, difference.
       Moderator Response: [DB] User caerbannog posted a comment on that issue here: http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?p=2&t=80&&n=504#36422 with a full guest post here:A Quick and Dirty Analysis of GHCN Surface Temperature Data.
88368. KR at 05:59 AM on 16 April 2011
       Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
       RSVP - "In the case of heat convecting directly into fluids such as air and water, A (the area) equals zero since there are no solid objects radiating anything. ... If A is zero, J is zero, which means energy radiated is zero." Horribly, horribly wrong, RSVP. Water radiates from its surface, gases radiate as well, with the W/m^2 being the flux that gas will radiate through a 1 m^2 area - scaled from your detector aperture. Solid, liquid, gas, plasma - all matter above absolute zero radiates some thermal energy. Here's a hint - a non-zero emissivity means thermal radiation. Water, for example, has an IR emissivity of 0.98, almost black body levels. Your post is complete nonsense. You've been a participant here for quite some time, RSVP - why are you grasping at what aren't even straws in this case? You should know better by now!
88369. Alec Cowan at 05:57 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Thank you, Daniel. I tried to get the antipodal location but I missed by some 700km, I think. Anyway, it took me less than five minutes and it cost me nothing. I have to change my password now because I had to login from the fake address, so Uncle Chang knows it (anyway, I don't think geopolitical balance is going to change because of that piece of information)
88370. RSVP at 05:29 AM on 16 April 2011
       Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
       KR 385 Going here... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan%E2%80%93Boltzmann_law it happens to say... "To find the total absolute power of energy radiated for an object we have to take into account the surface area, A(in m2)" In the case of heat convecting directly into fluids such as air and water, A (the area) equals zero since there are no solid objects radiating anything. We are talking about air and water. The SB law refers to solid black and grey bodies. Conclusion. If A is zero, J is zero, which means energy radiated is zero.
88371. muoncounter at 05:19 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       DM, Adam rests his argument on the fiction that modern surface temperatures are not reliable because there are too few stations. I don't care whether he thinks that's true or not; it is, however, a sword that cuts both ways. He cannot have too few stations now = bad and too few stations in the early part of the century = good. If he insists on that, then he is clearly a lost cause. If he continues to insist on that, then he's clearly another Poptech.
       Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] I fully agree, he tried the same trick with GISTEMP, HADCRUT, re. effect of Arctic coverage on computation of trends. In both cases, he can't have it both ways!
88372. Albatross at 04:43 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Dikran @93, Isn't the other reason that the station dropout is a null issue, because if anything removing those northern stations should have reduced the global SAT anomaly, because those northern stations are warming fastest? That is, those northern stations have the greatest positive anomalies.
       Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] I'm not sure that is the case as the area-based averaging would then be giving higher weight to the remaining stations in that region (which are also warming faster). Essentially the reason for the area weighted averaging is to compensate for the differences in the density of stations across the globe, so altering the local density shouldn't change anything significantly. I'd have to investigate the exact algorithms in more detail to be more confident.

       N.B. note that I have just argued against a point that would have strengthened my argument (had I though it was correct). When did you last see that from the "skeptics" here. ;o)

88373. Alec Cowan at 04:33 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Please, Daniel Bailey, check my IP for this message and my previous message.
       Response:

       [DB] Nice teaching moment.  Since this is clearly a demonstration, Alec has changed his IP address from his home country in South America to this:

       IP Address Location
       IP Address    122.85.40.120
       City    Beijing
       State or Region    Beijing
       Country    China
       ISP    China Tietong Telecommunications Corporation.
       Latitude & Longitude    39.900000   116.413000   MapG  MapV
       Domain    CHINATIETONG.COM

       So the moral is this:  If it acts like, Poptech, sounds like Poptech and argues like Poptech, it could be Poptech.  I will confer with John on this.

88374. muoncounter at 04:18 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Adam#88: Sorry, gentlemen, but I can't let this slip. Promise, it's my last shot at this particular troll. "the surface temperature record was fine until about 1985, when there was a huge decline in the number of temperature stations used." So you state that fewer stations means less accurate surface temperatures. "saying that post 1919 surface temp record is fine means that the current surface temp record is just fine, is just wrong." Nonsense. You can't have it both ways. How many surface stations were there in Greenland in 1919? How many surface stations are there now? More is better according to you; if there are more surface stations now, the modern temperature record is more accurate. You cannot argue 'Greenland disproves AGW' without violating this basic tenet of denialism. If you cannot accept the basic demands of logic, you have no argument. Give it up. "co2 was much higher 60 years ago" That's just plain wrong. Enough said.
       Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] IIRC, the old canard about there being a problem because of a drop out in the number of stations seems to go back to this image produced by Ross McKittrick,

       

       Which shows a discontinuity in the temperatures that coincides with the scrapping of a number of stations, most of which were apparently in Northerly locations. Looks convincing doesn't it, until you plot the actual annual surface temperature record for the same period

       

       Hey, what happened to the huge leap in 1990? The answer is simple, the temperature plot used by McKitterick is merely an unweighted average of all of the station data, whereas climatologists use an area weighted average in order to avoid the bias that would otherwise be caused by the fact that there are many more stations in the industrialised north than elsewhere. So although the number of northerly stations was cut in the 80s/90s, it doesn't introduce a warm bias, because of the way the averaging of stations is done by the climatologists who do actually know about these things.

       McKitterick's plot is a good indication that most of the stations that were dropped were in colder locations and that is about it. But we knew that anyway as we knew where they were already!

       This was one of the things that tripped my trollometer, this particular canard was was flambéd long ago.

88375. Daniel Bailey at 04:17 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Adam is using 2 different IP addresses (account created March 14, 2011); from England. Poptech had two accounts here, one under Poptech (created April 25, 2008; 3 different New Jersey IP addresses) and one under poptech (created March 7, 2010; Western Australia IP Address - no comments ever posted here).
88376. Bob Lacatena at 04:05 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       86, Adam,

       ...you're the one that claimed that providing empirical evidence that Greenland warming was caused by humans was 'unfullfillable'. All I was doing was repeating what you claimed.

       No, you were repeating my claim (about Greenland) and then extending it in a single leap to apply to the whole of GHG climate science.

       ...it has been repeatadly claimed by the mass media...

       And this has what to do with the science? We're done here.
88377. Rob Honeycutt at 04:02 AM on 16 April 2011
       Christy Crock #3: Internal Variability
       Jay... I think the variation is actually quite easy to measure (if I get your meaning). The challenge is to extract the various signals from the noise. When people like Christy say it's natural variability they are having to turn a blind eye to the elephant in the room, which they all tacitly admit is real. The radiative forcing of CO2. We've clearly added a significant forcing to the climate system. If what we are experiencing is natural variability then where is the radiative forcing from CO2 going?
88378. Rob Honeycutt at 03:53 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Albatross... The utter intransigence is eerily familiar.
88379. Albatross at 03:44 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Rob @89, They have checked, but then again, there is software out there that will bounce your IP around if you want to remain untraceable. FWIW, we'll see what "Adam" says. Sure are many similarities though hey? But perhaps that is not altogether surprising. I was actually half serious about a behavioural psychologist analyzing this thread.
88380. Rob Honeycutt at 03:31 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Adam... Just curious. Are you actually Andrew/Poptech?
88381. Dr. Jay Cadbury, phd. at 03:20 AM on 16 April 2011
       Christy Crock #3: Internal Variability
       @Albatross Well would you agree that it is harder to measure natural variations in the environment as compared to measuring co2 emissions and therefore it is harder to distinguish between a natural forcing and a manmade one?
88382. Rob Honeycutt at 03:09 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Mods... Sorry, I had to look up DNFTT.
       Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] No problem, need to remember it more often myself!
88383. Adam at 02:56 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Dikran I am not 'shifting goal posts'. It was claimed that the fact I pointed out that the satellites showed no warming from 1979-1997 was 'cherry picking' because it was ignoring the long term trend. All I was doing was pointing out that I was not cherrypciking because the models clearly predicted that for that period temperature would rise due to co2 yet it didn't. Daniel Bailey I have indeed seen all of the 'emprical evidence' sections of this website, and once again I can indeed answer all of them. "Typical denial debate tactic. You jump from: ...there is nothing unusual about Greenland's climate. to ...there is no empirical evidence for AGW." Sphaerica you're the one that claimed that providing empirical evidence that Greenland warming was caused by humans was 'unfullfillable'. All I was doing was repeating what you claimed. "Specifically in Greenland? Why? There is a correlation, when looking at the entire globe. ...no correlation proves no causation... Yes, but the requested correlation must be relevant. The fact that the population of purple turtles on the planet does not correlate to lung cancer deaths does not prove that smoking does not cause cancer." Sphaerica once again you keep avoiding what I am pointing out. If I chose an area of the globe like the US or Canada and said that the fact it didn't correlate to co2 is evidence to AGW, then yes I admit that would be cherry picking. But as I have pointed out polar areas are different from the rest of the world. If greenhouse gases were warming our planet, polar areas are the first places we should see some effect. Yet the fact there is no correlation shows that co2 levels are not effecting Greenland temperature. "The fact that Greenland, which is near the poles, surrounded by many different bodies of water, near the gulf stream and the Arctic (possibly the most volatile seasonal climate on the planet), does not mean that it needs to demonstrate a perfect correlation with AGW, and if not the theory can be dismissed." Sphaerica it has been repeatadly claimed by the mass media and numerous pro-AGW websites that the Greenland warming is due to humans. This website has written numerous articles about Greenland's 'unprecedented melting' and it is clearly implied that is due to humans. All I am asking is that when claims are made, warmists should provide evidence to back it up. It is perfectly possible that Greenland temperature variations are natural as shown by the paper I gave you. "Whining that no one will show you a correlation between Greenland temperatures and AGW is just that... whining. " Sphaerica what would it take to convince you that Greenland climate changes are not man made? Just name it.
       Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] DNFTT
88384. dana1981 at 02:41 AM on 16 April 2011
       David Evans' Understanding of the Climate Goes Cold
       Lassesson #15 - to be fair, the article was originally a speech given at an anti-carbon tax rally in Australia. In that context it's a bit clearer.
88385. Rob Honeycutt at 02:41 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Adam... This entire discussion goes back exactly to where it started. You're trying to infer a global response from a single location. You can't do it. You're walking out onto your back porch, looking at the thermometer and telling us that is the temperature of North America. It's wrong, and wrong-headed. Just because we have global data that tells us that anthropogenic CO2 is responsible for warming since the 1970's, it does not follow that every location on the planet should then have a warming signal beginning in the 1970's. This should be blatantly obvious.
88386. Albatross at 02:39 AM on 16 April 2011
       Christy Crock #3: Internal Variability
       Jay @81, Christy said "When you look at the possibility of natural unforced variability, you see that can cause excursions that we've seen recently, you see that can cause excursions that we've seen recently". That second part of the sentence is pretty definitive. And as I and others have pointed out, Occam's razor applies here-- there is no need to do mental gymnastics to try and invent hypotheticals as Spencer is trying to do to explain the recent warming. Christy is apparently telling you what you want to hear, and you are uncritically buying into it-- people are also very good at rationalizinfg their poor decisions (i.e., but he said "possibly"). I would like nothing more than the theory of AGW to be untrue, but alas, I'm afraid that the physics and science say otherwise, and I cannot deny that, no matter how inconvenient. PS: Thanks Dikran! Feel free to delete my post #83.
       Moderator Response:

       [Dikran Marsupial] No problem, it is probably the most useful thing I've done today!

       [DB] Albatross, check your email for a message from me.

88387. Alexandre at 02:37 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Albatross at 01:37 AM on 16 April, 2011 I think the AGW basics is not any more difficult to understand than many other difficult, yet manageable, technical issues. Any engineer or doctor can give plenty of these examples. The problem is the D-K effect caused by the denialist blogosphere. It seems to make a difference wether someone learns this issue through atmospheric physics textbooks or through, say, the Heartland Institute. So getting there first helps. That's the importance of websites like this. But engaging in "debates" with people that seem to have already made up their minds, regardless the evidence, seems too unfruitful to me. Maybe even counter-productive.
88388. Rob Honeycutt at 02:33 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Adam... You should actually read the links you provide. Satellites, in fact, do NOT cover the entire planet. According to John Kehr, whom you linked to, "[Satellite] coverage is from 85N to 85S." Most but not all. On top of that, if the surface station data sets are all in agreement... and all the surface station data is in agreement with both groups publishing satellite data... why is there a question? All methods are pointing to the same answer.
       Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] There is also the point that if the satellite data is so accurate, why is it that the UAH and RSS products don't agree (to an extent comparable to the difference between satellite and surface station trends), both being different ways of processing the same raw data from the same satellites. Funny skeptics never seem to want to use RSS... ;o)
88389. Alec Cowan at 02:32 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       @Albatross #74 You know Poptech, and you know how he applies the technique: first, some "absolute" assertion, then trying to balance around all the evidence showed to him, and when some time passes, he says "nobody has provided any evidence that (absolute) is false", "nobody has provided any real evidence about (something against "absolute")". Sometimes, if he see it fits, adding "convincing" or the like just to look a little less harsh. And it's pretty much the same old story (which could be automatized by a 2k script in JavaScript). What is not so easy to script -and I must admit there's some wicked talent behind- is to select the time to do it. I mean, it's easy to start a thread in a web forum or post comment #1 saying (absolute), but what is not so easy is reading all the messages and select the moment when the renewal of (absolute) will make it look like a settled question. There are a few that make a living of it in the 'denialist' arena. It seems a few practise here abusing of the good faith of many that make this a great website.
88390. muoncounter at 02:31 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Adam/Poptech: We get it. You disagree. However: A significant amount of your 1920s warming was the one year 1.2 degree jump in 1919. As a skeptic or denier, its understandable that once you've taken a position, you must do whatever is necessary to support it. You claim surface temperatures are unreliable, but you have based your entire story on this temperature measurement. That's a clear indication of bias or perhaps hypocrisy. The correlation you repeatedly deny was established here. Don't bother saying 'no its not' until you establish the validity of 1919 surface temperature record -- which, of course, will also establish the validity of subsequent surface temperatures.
88391. Bob Lacatena at 02:30 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       78, Adam, Typical denial debate tactic. You jump from:

       ...there is nothing unusual about Greenland's climate.

       to

       ...there is no empirical evidence for AGW.

       The two are very, very different. I read the paper. It didn't reach the same conclusion that you did. It did say there was nothing unusual about Greenland's climate. It did not say that this fact disproved AGW in any way. It said another decade of observations (at least) were needed.

       ...shows that AGW is still little more than a theory.

       This sentence alone demonstrates a total lack of comprehension of the scientific method.

       ...if CO2 was having an effect, there would have been a correlation

       Specifically in Greenland? Why? There is a correlation, when looking at the entire globe.

       ...no correlation proves no causation...

       Yes, but the requested correlation must be relevant. The fact that the population of purple turtles on the planet does not correlate to lung cancer deaths does not prove that smoking does not cause cancer. ( - Inflammatory portion snipped - ) [It's] Anthropogenic Global Warming. ( - Snip - ) The fact that Greenland, which is near the poles, surrounded by many different bodies of water, near the gulf stream and the Arctic (possibly the most volatile seasonal climate on the planet), does not mean that it needs to demonstrate a perfect correlation with AGW, and if not the theory can be dismissed. I would point out, however, that Greenland is warming. The fact that there have been two previous periods of natural warming is totally irrelevant. It means nothing. It's only meaningful to you because you want it to be, because you want global warming to be a non-issue. Come back with some science, and some reasonable logic. Whining that no one will show you a correlation between Greenland temperatures and AGW is just that... whining.
       Moderator Response: Let's try and keep things civil please.
88392. Lassesson at 02:24 AM on 16 April 2011
       David Evans' Understanding of the Climate Goes Cold
       dana1981 #12 Okey, then I see why you referred to it as "tragedy of the commons". But I must say that Evans was quite unclear about it, since he was talking about "to curb emissions on a world scale" and a "world government" just before he said "Even if we stopped emitting...". That made me believe that "we" included me and everyone else in the world.
88393. Chris G at 02:21 AM on 16 April 2011
       What was it like the last time CO2 levels were this high?
       There is also good discussion about climate sensitivity and how it is not really a constant, in the above article. Not always, but I have seen it treated that way. An easy way to think about non-constant sensitivity is to think of some feedback in particular, for instance, ice sheets. On an ice-free planet, a little more warmth produces no ice->ocean feedback, and on a ice-ball earth, a little less warmth does not change the albedo. In between, I suspect it has a lot to do with the layout of the continents and how that interacts with Milankovitch cycles.
88394. Albatross at 02:21 AM on 16 April 2011
       Christy Crock #3: Internal Variability
       Arkadiusz @79 and 80, "Christy is an eminent scientist - to discredit him, have done better." That is your opinion. I for one am not trying to discredit Christy (he is doing a fine job of that by his own actions), I am taking issue with him making misleading and factually incorrect statements. "you can also say, however, and that a further increase p.CO2 in the atmosphere is insignificant when all process of feedback has been running.." This is not about "what ifs" or wishful thinking (i.e., some mystical natural negative feedback or non-transient internal climate mode is going to offset the strong radiative forcing from doubling or trebling GHGs) Arkadiusz, it is about facts and a very clear statement made by Christy. "The changes described in the cited papers that I was rapidly and quickly - today are identical.", The changes may or may not be very similar, but were the forcing mechanisms the same? But this is all besides the point. Again, let me remind you what we took issue with here, because you seem to be having issues comprehending what this at issue-- the fact that Christy stated as fact that the recent warming could be explained by natural variability alone. Unlike we have done here, he did not support his assertion with science. Moreover, the science and observations does not support his position. You showing that natural variability produced similar excursions in the past is a red herring and strawman and not relevant to the current situation, and I suspect that you fully know that. One does not need to invoke natural variability to explain all the recent warming, but one does need to invoke it to explain the inter-annual and inter-deccadal variability (i.e., the noise) in the global surface air temperature record. Christy's statement is simply false, unless he (or you) can present a model which has been published in the literature (and stood the test of time) that includes only natural unforced variability (and a physical mechanism) to account for all the observed recent warming, while at the same time accounting for the many fingerprints being attributed to anthropogenic warming. You are making strawman arguments Arkadiusz. I do not disagree with Timmerman that you linked us to at Colose's web site, and I am sure neither does, for example, James Hansen who has spent much time looking at mechanisms of previous climate change. PS: I am not going to debate the merits (or not) of the NIPCC or play tit for tat with you-- perhaps the "credibility" of the NIPPC can be the topic of a future post here.
       Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] Tags (hopefully) fixed
88395. newcrusader at 02:14 AM on 16 April 2011
       What was it like the last time CO2 levels were this high?
       Actually CO2 levels have not been this high since about 15-20 million years ago, when the planet saw falling CO2 levels from the PETM. C02 levels even at this level (393ppm) sustained will mean severe problems for us- past 400ppm this increases exponentially- at 450ppm, 2-3 degrees C is a certainty- with all the complications associated with it- and they will be very harsh.
88396. Alexandre at 02:13 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Adam at 01:39 AM on 16 April, 2011 Fair point. I would add that there's no published paper connecting temperatures in Sicily between 1983-1998 and the GHE either. I withdraw my claims, therefore. Forget IR trapping, climate sensitivity and such deceiving stuff.
88397. Adam at 02:13 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Sphaerica, so are you admitting that there is no empirical evidence for AGW and that you're never ever going to be able to provide it? But you're saying that that doesn't matter. In science you use facts to come to a conclusion (right?). The paper I provided you used facts and came to the conclusion that there is nothing unusual about Greenland's climate. "Which says absolutely nothing. There is no photographic evidence of John Wilkes Booth shooting Lincoln, but that doesn't make him innocent." So are you saying that the fact that there is no empirical evidence for AGW, doesn't make the theory wrong. But you're still admitting there's no empirical evidence for it. Which shows that AGW is still little more than a theory. "Care to provide any argument for this, other than your own personal insight that if CO2 were the cause there must be some sort of direct correlation (for totally unstated and unfounded reasons)." Sphaerica if CO2 was having an effect, then there would have been a correlation. Correlation does not prove causation, but no correlation proves no causation (or at least no significant causation.) "Even your cherished paper wasn't so foolish as to draw this conclusion. They said this: The temperature trend during the next ten years may be a decisive factor in a possible detection of an anthropogenic part of climate signal over area of the Greenland ice sheet." Sphaerica what they are saying is that they can detect no anthropogenic signal in Greenland's climate and that they're not sure when they will be able to.
       Moderator Response: [DB] "But you're still admitting there's no empirical evidence for it. False; use the search function to find many threads on the topic here. Which shows that AGW is still little more than a theory." Which shows the world how little you understand the difference between theories (which are robust), hypothesis (some evidence for, enough to make testable generalizations) and simple hand-waving & dismissing of all evidence which contravenes ones position. Which is what you are doing.
88398. Chris G at 02:13 AM on 16 April 2011
       What was it like the last time CO2 levels were this high?
       This appears to be in close agreement with Hansen's 2008, Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?. In that paper, there is much discussion about the differences between fast and slow feedback processes.
88399. muoncounter at 02:12 AM on 16 April 2011
       Earth hasn't warmed as much as expected
       Yooper#8: "Betcha that streak continues for some time." Climate central has a graphic about the heat wave last summer showing a probability distribution of temperature. Recent years are most of the outliers high side. It's a cool plot, but it does take a basic understanding of probability to get the message.
       Moderator Response: [DB] Yeah, that's a "cool one"; succinct, yet effective.
88400. Adam at 02:04 AM on 16 April 2011
       It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940
       Dikran, satellites do indeed cover the whole planet, they can focus on focus on separate area's, work out the temperature trends of that area, and then put it all together to create a global temperature dataset. Working out temperature trends based on thermometers, can never be very reliable, since they do not uniformly cover the whole globe, and can be placed in areas, which cause them to have a warm bias. See Why satellites are better at measuring global temperature Dikran I am not cherry picking. I acknowledge that the long term trend in the temperature datasets is indeed a warming trend, but the fact is computer models predicted that from 1979-1997 the temperature would rise due to co2, but it didn't. That is not cherry picking.
       Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] You are shifting the goal posts from satellite-surface station comparison to model-observation comparison. Don't think I didn't notice the disingenuous evasion.

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