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CBDunkerson at 22:37 PM on 23 November 20102nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Damorbel wrote: "Energy can only flow from a high temperature place to a lower temperature place." Interesting. How exactly do you explain sunlight traveling from space (very cold) to the Earth (much warmer) in your world? As explained before, the greenhouse effect acts like insulation. Think of a house in winter. If you've got a heating system (the Sun) but no insulation (greenhouse gases) then the heat escapes quickly and the house (planet Earth) stays cold. If you add insulation then the heat can't escape as fast and the maximum temperature which the heating system can maintain increases even though the amount of heat it puts out hasn't changed. No violations of the laws of thermodynamics... just an every day phenomenon that we have all experienced. -
damorbel at 22:35 PM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
Re #62 JMurphy you wrote:- "Muir Russell,which says nothing like what you claim." Perhaps my copy and past isn't working! Do tell me what I should have seen. -
JMurphy at 21:59 PM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
damorbel wrote : "I am not providing new evidence of temperature trends, just drawing attention to the Muir Russell Review which says that substituting the instrumental (thermometer) record without identifying the substitution is unacceptable." You are certainly, though, providing new interpretations of Muir Russell, which says nothing like what you claim. -
Michele at 21:19 PM on 23 November 2010The 2nd law of thermodynamics and the greenhouse effect
KR, “Multiple vector”. A fluid dynamics example. A gas at rest is only macroscopically at rest as the molecules keep on their fluctuations around the center of mass of the particle that includes them. Indeed, the vectorial sum of the all velocities relative to the center of mass of the particle, is statistically zero because the velocities, also if chaotic, are really isotropic. The agitation motion of molecules only causes the local equipartition of macroscopic characteristics as pressure, density, temperature (in practice of energy density) within the particle, and it don’t cause any transfer of energy or of mass. The macroscopic transfer of mass (mechanic energy) occurs only if the pressures between two different parcel of the gas are different. With different temperatures there’s always a transfer of thermal energy and at given conditions also of mass. This transfer is measurable (and indeed exists for real world that we feel) only at macroscopic scale. You cannot lump microscopic an macroscopic things together. -
JMurphy at 21:16 PM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
damorbel wrote : "One isolated instance? So why did the IPCC when adopting this flawed data use just one isolated instance as a major argument in its Assessment Reports?" Two assertions there (concerning the data and the IPCC), neither with any proof. Perhaps you don't need any ? Until you back up your 'arguments', you are just blindly repeating whatever you've read elsewhere. -
kdkd at 21:01 PM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
damorbel #58 I've seen much worse in the peer reviewed literature. This doesn't seem to be a damning inditement to me, more a side issue that the so-called-sceptics can (as usual) blow up out of all proportion to its importance. -
drj at 20:40 PM on 23 November 2010Twice as much Canada, same warming climate
Thanks for the post and the links Ned. Readers may be interested in the map I made of the Environment Canada stations (using ScraperWiki). It's a bit slow to load, and you need to scroll North to see all the stations. -
damorbel at 20:16 PM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
Re #57 No, tobyjoyce, no need to for "the enquirers be themselves enquired into", just read what they write! -
damorbel at 20:13 PM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
Re #56 kdkd You wrote:- "Even if we take the idea that the "Nature trick" was dodgy, you have to ask the question: what material difference to the scientific conclusions would be made by discarding this data analysis?" I take it you are referring to the CRU substituting thermometer measurements for tree ring measurements for the 20thC section of the 'hockey stick' temperature graph? This 'unidentified' substitution avoided disclosing the fact that the tree ring record does not show the temperature rising in the 20thC. I am not providing new evidence of temperature trends, just drawing attention to the Muir Russell Review which says that substituting the instrumental (thermometer) record without identifying the substitution is unacceptable. -
tobyjoyce at 20:04 PM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
After all the enquiries, it is astonishing to find deniers demanding that the enquirers be themselves enquired into. Or, "let's keep having enquiries until they reach the conclusions we want". -
kdkd at 19:48 PM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
damorbel #55 "this is nothing to do with conspiracy theories or dogged determination but everything to do with scientists employed at public expense trying, however sincerely, to make the evidence fit the hypothesis and an all too gullible international quango being lead by the nose. " Even if we take the idea that the "Nature trick" was dodgy, you have to ask the question: what material difference to the scientific conclusions would be made by discarding this data analysis? The answer to this question is none at all. Unless you have some evidence to present, rather than just opinionated assertion with no basis in evidence. -
Rob Painting at 17:57 PM on 23 November 2010Economic Impacts of Carbon Pricing
Wombie - In New Zealand the price of petrol has doubled in the past two years with no drop off in demand. I live in New Zealand, and assure readers no such thing has happened. Several years ago, prior to the full impact of the global financial crisis, petrol got up to $2.20 per litre. It plummeted, and has steadily risen up to $1.88 per litre (give or take a few cents for regional pricing variations). -
damorbel at 17:54 PM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
Re #44 JMurphy wrote "it was all a big conspiracy (along with all those other enquiries, which came to the same result), but you have exposed the hidden truth by your dogged determination." Oh dear! Oh dear! In the OP this thread cites the Muir Russell Review as saying:- "We do not find that it is misleading to curtail reconstructions at some point per se, or to splice data, but we believe that both of these procedures should have been made plain — ideally in the figure but certainly clearly described in either the caption or the text.” [1.3.2]" And then tries to defend this by saying :- "But this was one isolated instance that occurred more than a decade ago. The Review did not find anything wrong with the overall picture painted about divergence (or uncertainties generally) in the literature and in IPCC reports." One isolated instance? So why did the IPCC when adopting this flawed data use just one isolated instance as a major argument in its Assessment Reports? No, JMurphy, this is nothing to do with conspiracy theories or dogged determination but everything to do with scientists employed at public expense trying, however sincerely, to make the evidence fit the hypothesis and an all too gullible international quango being lead by the nose.Moderator Response: The IPCC did not use the same graph that appeared on the cover of the 1999 WMO report. They used a similar graph which the Review apparently had no problem with. - James -
OPatrick at 17:02 PM on 23 November 2010Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming
Here's somewhere it might be worth keeping an eye on (NCAR) Attribution of Climate Events It appears to involve Peter Stott, Myles Allen, Martin Hoerling and Kevin Trenberth, so I'm guessing they know what they are talking about. So far they largely seem to be highlighting the need for more cohesive research "A clear conclusion of the meeting was that there are important research needs in developing an attribution service sufficiently reliable and timely to be applied routinely." -
garythompson at 16:53 PM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
so when tree ring data diverges from the predicted theory or instrument data we throw out the tree ring data and overlay the instrument data. i've always had an issue with that. if the proxy data is not valid then don't use it for prior periods. that is the essence of cherry picking. there is no way to gloss over the 'hide the decline' statement in my humble opinion. if we throw out proxy data in the recent period because we think there was a drought condidtion then how do we know the prior proxy data were also not influenced by climate issues that we can't verify since they happened before instrument data? we still can't explain why the past decade has shown no increase in temperatures even though CO2 continues to increase at a linear rate. the following website shows that temperatures and OLR are not following the predicted models. something else besides CO2 is driving our climate.Moderator Response: It is not true that "the past decade has shown no increase in temperatures." See (and please comment on one of these threads, not this thread, for that topic): "It's Cooling," "It Hasn't Warmed Since 1998," "Global Temperatures Dropped Sharply in 2007," "Keep Those PJs On: La Nina Cannot Erase Decades of Warming," and "European Reanalysis of Temperature Confirms Record Warmth in 2010." Regarding temperature's correlation with CO2, see "There’s No Correlation Between CO2 and Temperature," and if you want to discuss that topic, do so on that thread. -
kdkd at 15:56 PM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
KL #51 "A spot of sloppy record keeping is only to be expected of those promoting 'the greatest moral challenge of our age'. " You know, this is really tiresome. I think I'll take what is and isn't acceptable record keeping for scientists from scientists, rather than from an ideologically fixated engineer with a terminal case of confirmation bias. -
Daniel Bailey at 15:42 PM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
Re: Ken Lambert You know, if "repeated ideological rants" were added to the Comments Policy, then perhaps you'd have no comments left on threads anymore. The Yooper -
Ken Lambert at 15:29 PM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
Albatros #48 Ideological Rant? dear dear - a perfectly reasonable comment I would have thought. Phila #49 In other words Prof Jones did lose the original data (was it something about not enough hard disk space back then?) - but if anyone cares to back-engineer all his documented corrections to it from the current result (back to the 1980's), then it can be resurrected. Sounds like a job for M&M. A spot of sloppy record keeping is only to be expected of those promoting 'the greatest moral challenge of our age'. -
adelady at 15:00 PM on 23 November 2010The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Camburn 63. Maybe you have a point. GHGs emit 50% of their radiation _towards_ the ground. Most importantly, there's a substantial quantity of GHG and non-GHG molecules in the atmosphere to intercept, absorb, emit this re-radiated energy. In both directions. And those molecules do the same thing. In both directions. Which is why less of the radiation can exit at TOA and why there is more energy retained and circulating within the atmosphere-ocean climate system. Temperature is a good indicator for the process. Ice melt is also a good indicator - which can itself be related to temperature. -
The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Camburn - I'm sure I'm not the first to point this out, but you should read Does Urban Heat Island effect exaggerate global warming trends. The answer, in short, is no. I did say "~", by the way. It's just under 50% in the bands where CO2 and other GHG's are fully saturated, with increasing levels of GHG's broadening those bands. Heat content, yes, that's an important part of predicting rates. But that's really not relevant to what climate changes will occur - resulting temperatures are. The temperature at which crops change zones, where sea level affects coastal cities through thermal expansion and ice cap melt, etc. And the models, including the feedback amplifications that so greatly affect the final result of our CO2 output, are based upon temperature. Because temperature and GHG concentrations determine the IR output at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), determine whether we're at equilibrium or in an energy imbalance that will change that temperature. Our measurements of total energy budget are not as accurate as we would like, but our temperature measures are accurate, redundant (multiple ground station networks, multiple satellite data), and those tell us that we're in energy imbalance, with rising temperatures. Even if we don't really know thermal mass values (and we do, you've ignored that) or the exact energy imbalance, the rate of temperature change (anomalies) indicates where we are going, and to a large extent how much of a problem we're going to have. Not heat content. I really hate to say this, Camburn, but you appear to be searching for an out - looking to find some explanation that won't make rising temperatures true. I've seen people playing 'ostrich', burying their heads in the sand (yes, yes, I know they don't actually do that); you're giving me that impression. You've certainly not proposed anything not already accounted for in climate models, data sets, or our understanding of how our world is changing. -
caerbannog at 14:38 PM on 23 November 2010The Fake Scandal of Climategate
fydijkstra at 19:57 PM on 22 November, 2010 dhogaza (#49): What planet do you live on? The S&B paper was the first in a series of papers that questioned the attempt by the hockey team to rewrite history, denying the Medieval Warm Period. In 2003 that was so shocking for the climate community that six editors of the journal resigned. Many other papers, books, reports and political inquiries later, there can be no other conclusion than that S&B had a valid point with their pioneer work... fydijkstra, Have you read the S&B paper? The problems with their methodology should be obvious to anyone who has a college freshman level of expertise in basic statistics and Earth science. If you are unable to identify at least one or two "showstopper" blunders in S&B's methodology, then that means that you are in way over your head here. The S&B paper would not pass muster as a passing-grade undergraduate term-paper at any reputable university. Google it up and read it for yourself. And like I said, if you can't identify one or two of the painfully obvious blunders in the paper's methodology, then you don't have the technical background needed to debate this topic productively. -
muoncounter at 14:33 PM on 23 November 2010Twice as much Canada, same warming climate
#8: "UHI was NOT taken into account in the graphs" Trends. If UHI wasn't taken into account, it still gets subtracted out when you look at trends. Once an area becomes urban, it can't get any more urban. And where's the UHI at a place like Libby, Montana (population 2880), with a summer min temperature increase of 0.85F (0.47C)/decade since 1958? See here and here for prior discussion and comment there if you like. -
Camburn at 14:13 PM on 23 November 2010Twice as much Canada, same warming climate
muoncounter: UHI was NOT taken into account in the graphs, so the projection is right on par without adjustments.Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] Tamino also looked at UHI recently in his post Urban Wet Island? If you still have questions on UHI, please post them on one of the threads muoncounter has kindly provided. Thanks! -
muoncounter at 14:13 PM on 23 November 2010Twice as much Canada, same warming climate
Not to be outdone, the Washington State Climatologist has a very slick temperature trend visualization tool covering Wash, Oregon, Idaho and a little BC. Not to mention, they have a State Climatologist! Similar in 30-50 year trends to Canada, although you'd have to convert deg F/decade to deg C/decade. And they have a State Climatologist! -
Camburn at 14:08 PM on 23 November 2010The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
KR: correction. The GHG's do NOT send more than 50% back to the ground. In fact, it is less than 50% because of the sperical shape of the atmosphere. I care what the thermal mass values are because those values are a true measure of heat content. Models deal daily with heat content, not temperature. That is the metric in climate science that is important. I would love to have layman's availability to the measured heat content variances. The heat content exerts a large forcing in temperatures affecting urban island heat effect. Without knowing all the dynamics it is impossible to accurately portray how much effect UHI really has. -
muoncounter at 13:55 PM on 23 November 2010Twice as much Canada, same warming climate
"The slope of the 30-year trend" Here are some graphs from the Environment Canada data. One in particular:
Looks like 2.25 degrees in 45 years or 0.5C per decade. Oh the cherry-picking, that's just winter temperature. It must be the summers that are cooling!
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The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
oamoe - That's a good summary of the effects. GHG's absorb and emit thermal IR at Earth temperatures, sending ~50% back to the ground, reducing the energy leaving the atmosphere. Camburn - First, a humid night cools slower than a dry one because water vapor is a greenhouse gas, and slows the IR cooling of the ground. Secondly, quite frankly, I don't care what the thermal mass values of air, water vapor, or the ground are. What's important is the temperature, since that's what affects crops, pest ranges, weather, ice mass, sea level, etc. Exact values for thermal mass are useful for predicting rates, but actual temperature observations do a pretty good job of that too. -
Ned at 13:46 PM on 23 November 2010The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Actually, oamoe's summary looks pretty clear to me, whereas Camburn's attempt at a correction doesn't really seem to add anything useful. -
muoncounter at 13:44 PM on 23 November 2010The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
#58: "worried about net heat gain or loss?" If there is no net gain or loss due to water vapor, then it is merely a cycling agent. In climate change we're interested in long term trends; apparently you are saying that water vapor doesn't contribute to climate change? "holds a lottttttttt of heat." Well, that might be worth looking into, to see if this is much ado about not that much heat. "a humid night cools much less than a dry night" Agreed. If evaporation stores latent heat in the atmosphere, does the condensation of said humidity in the cool morning release that heat? What happens to that thermal energy from that point on? Suppose a desert area showed long term atmospheric temperature increase. Low humidity all of the year. How does that fit into your 'temperature isn't a measure of heat' paradigm? -
Camburn at 13:28 PM on 23 November 2010The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
oamoe: 2) This is wrong. The N2 and O2 recieve the kinetic energy at the expense of the co2. Once that collision has occured, the co2 is much less excited because it has lost some of its energy. You can't create energy, only consume energy. The sun is the source of most of the energy on earth. The earth contributes a small amount of heat from the core to the surface. It is not a source of consequence tho. -
Camburn at 13:25 PM on 23 November 2010The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
muoncounter: Who is worried about net heat gain or loss? I was indicateing that we have the tools to measure the heat content of the atmosphere and are not using them. As far as the content of a few hundred meters of h2ovapor. It holds a lottttttttt of heat. How much, I don't know. I do know that a humid night cools much less than a dry night because of the retained heat. -
Ned at 13:04 PM on 23 November 20102nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
In another comment, h-j-m also writes: A lot of chemical processes need energy. Last, but not least is the biosphere of this planet depending on energy. All these energies won't show up at outgoing radiation. Well, all the processes that you mention were occurring in the past, too. Unless there's some change that's caused the biosphere or the oceans or whatever to suddenly start storing more energy than they were able to do so before, you wouldn't expect this to have any effect on the observed energy balance of the planet. In any case, though, this isn't really relevant to the question of whether the greenhouse effect is somehow a violation of the second law of thermodynamics (it isn't) or of whether greenhouse gases must have the same effect on incoming and outgoing radiation (they don't). If some mysterious chemical or physical process were discovered to have soaked up a lot of additional energy within the climate system, it would just imply a larger planetary radiative imbalance. The observed warming of the surface and atmosphere would still be a concern ... and in fact we'd have to worry about what would happen if your mysterious process X ever stopped absorbing excess solar radiation. -
Ned at 12:53 PM on 23 November 20102nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
h-j-m writes: Ned, thanks, that sounds better. Thanks! It is not the terminology that confuses me but your use of it. As I understand it infra-red is rather large radiation spectrum that then had been subdivided for more precise meaning (near infra-red and thermal infra-red being two of them). Sorry, I work with this stuff every day in my job, so I may be a bit casual in how I talk about it. The term "infrared" is ambiguous, because it is used to refer to a very broad range of the EM spectrum ... but there are hugely important differences in the origins and behavior of "infrared" radiation within the Earth's atmosphere. You asked a very natural question -- if greenhouse gases warm the Earth by blocking outgoing (emitted) radiation, shouldn't they also correspondingly cool the Earth by blocking incoming (solar) radiation? The answer to that question is one of the key principles of the greenhouse effect: given the current composition of the atmosphere, adding greenhouse gases has little direct effect on the wavelengths that comprise 99% of the downwelling solar radiation (visible, near-infrared, and shortwave infrared ... i.e., everything below 3 micrometers). However, it does have a significant direct effect on the wavelength range that comprises > 99% of the outgoing emitted radiation from the Earth (longwave infrared). So, to first order, adding CO2 to the existing atmosphere directly reduces outgoing radiation but doesn't directly reduce incoming radiation. That produces the warming effect. Notice all those "directs" and "directlys" in there? That's because the indirect effects of greenhouse gases include some feedbacks (involving water vapor and changes to cloud-albedo) that do influence incoming short-wavelength irradiance. This is the largest source of uncertainty in IPCC estimates of climate sensitivity. But these feedbacks are secondary effects and are almost certainly not large enough to counter the effects of CO2 warming. See here for a discussion of water vapor and here for a comparison of the magnitude of different forcings such as CO2 vs clouds. -
Ned at 12:24 PM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
Phila writes: But I do think we're at the point where conspiracy theories could simply be deleted (or edited out of otherwise substantive comments). Normally this site takes a pretty firm line against conspiracy theories of any stripe ("All skeptics are in the pay of Big Oil", "Climate scientists are faking the data"). The problem is that the entire UEA emails brouhaha was basically one nonstop conspiracy theory. So in the current series of posts about the emails, it's hard to enforce the normal rules banning discussion of conspiracy theories -- that's what these threads are about! I do hope that once we've worked through all these UEA emails threads and are back on discussion of the science, people can act like grownups and drop the conspiracy-mongering. IMHO it's like junk food for skeptics -- it tastes sweet, so they gobble it up, but there's no nutritional content. -
Ned at 12:14 PM on 23 November 2010Twice as much Canada, same warming climate
Also -- Thanks, Robert. Part of my haste in posting this was that I knew that you, or someone else, would beat me to it if I delayed! :-) As for rates of warming, the current 30-year trend is obviously much steeper than the century-scale trend. But you could probably cherry-pick a 30-year period during the 1920s-1940s with a slope almost as steep as this one ... maybe. I know some people will seize on the idea that this somehow casts doubt on the anthropogenic origins of the current warming, but hopefully most people here will see the logical fallacy in that line of reasoning. -
Ned at 12:06 PM on 23 November 2010Twice as much Canada, same warming climate
muoncounter writes: So that's where all the 'missing heat' has gone! Ned, you've done it again. Heh. Not me! I'm just publicizing some work by CCC that I thought SkS-ers would find interesting. HumanityRules writes: I see the whole Canada station number has doubled but there is no mention in the station number change for the Arctic. Yes, that's true. At the CCC site they have links to the data and the Python code. It would be interesting to see maps of the two distributions of stations. -
oamoe at 12:04 PM on 23 November 2010The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
I have a question for anyone regarding the mechanism by which greenhouse gases slow down the radiative cooling process. Am I correct in the following scenario: 1) Outgoing infrared radiation from the surface (oceans, atmosphere, land?)is absorbed at characteristic frequencies by greenhouse gases, promoting them to higher energy excited states. 2) Inelastic collisions between N2 and O2 in the atmosphere and excited greenhouse gases results in energy being transferred to the diatomic molecules as kinetic energy, raising the temperature of the atmosphere and resulting in a net loss of outgoing radiation. 3) The higher temperature in the atmosphere creates a reduced thermal gradient, resulting in slower heat transfer from the surface to the atmosphere. 4) Additionally, excited state greenhouse return to ground state by emission of IR radiation in all directions, including downward. Please let me know where I am right or wrong. Thanks. -
Phila at 12:00 PM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
Albatross@46: It was not intentional, but a re-read of what I said earlier could be easily interpreted in a much too general a sense, and I can see why some might object to what I said. So let me clarify. I wasn't objecting, by any means. I think we're basically in "violent agreement," as the saying is. KL @47 kdkd and I debated elsewhere that Prof Jones actually 'lost' the original data upon which the main global temperature reconstructions were based - HADCRUT etc. "The original raw data are not “lost.” I could reconstruct what we had from U.S. Department of Energy reports we published in the mid-1980s. I would start with the GHCN data. I know that the effort would be a complete waste of time, though....The documentation of what we’ve done is all in the literature." Apropos of what Albatross was saying above, the armchair psychoanalysis that follows KL's HADCRUT question is a very good example of how "the 'skeptics' have been deviating more and more from the science." -
Albatross at 11:50 AM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
Moderator, "Prof Jones was subjected to extreme pressure by the media and it no doubt affected his mental state. Such is the lot of someone who provides the scientific basis for a massive global effort to rapidly change from our main source of energy (fossil fuels) to something else." Please, do we really need to entertain these ideological rants? In fact, that quote above could be construed as a veiled threat against anyone working in the field of climate science who supports the theory of AGW. -
kdkd at 11:42 AM on 23 November 2010How significance tests are misused in climate science
I believe that BP is deeply confused between the difference between sceintific laws, which can be proven in the same way that mathematical theories can be proven, and scientific theories which sometimes rely on scientific laws, but usually rely on chains of induction. Induction, by definition is based on evidence. I suspect his misunderstanding comes from being from an engineering background where consideration of these matters is relatively unimportant. It's worth noting that a lot of the basis of modern computer programming comes from Whitehead and Russel's (1911) theory of logical types, which itself in parts is not amenable to deductive proof, but provides much of the basis for modern functional computer programming (without which we would not have this forum :]). Again the selective ignoring of comments by the so-called sceptic contingent here is instructive, in that BP has chosen to ignore the detailed critique of anti-induction reasoning provided by the very famous statistician Fisher in my comment #77 -
Ken Lambert at 11:22 AM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
Quite right Arkadiusz Semczyszak - you dogged reversion to actual quotations is key to this debate. “His colleagues said that keeping a paper trail was not one of Professor Jones' strong points. Professor Jones told BBC News: "There is some truth in that.” kdkd and I debated elsewhere that Prof Jones actually 'lost' the original data upon which the main global temperature reconstructions were based - HADCRUT etc. Could someone update us on this? Prof Jones was subjected to extreme pressure by the media and it no doubt affected his mental state. Such is the lot of someone who provides the scientific basis for a massive global effort to rapidly change from our main source of energy (fossil fuels) to something else. A rude awakening to the real world of great economies and massive interests indeed - but something inevitable and difficult to handle for a shy academic used to the gentler punch-ups of the academic world. -
HumanityRules at 11:10 AM on 23 November 2010Twice as much Canada, same warming climate
There is a slight disconnect in the CCC work. The station number graph is for the whole of Canada while the temp record is for just Arctic Canada. I see the whole Canada station number has doubled but there is no mention in the station number change for the Arctic. -
Albatross at 11:09 AM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
Phila @45, Thanks. Good points. It was not intentional, but a re-read of what I said earlier could be easily interpreted in a much too general a sense, and I can see why some might object to what I said. So let me clarify. Of course, like many here, I welcome different points of view which are grounded in science, and also welcome posters genuinely wanting to learn and understand what is going on. Challenging the science is a good thing, but IMHO, it has to be done with sincerity, an open mid (i.e., one must be open to new ideas and willing to change your position) and arguments (from both sides) need to be supported by facts from reputable/trustworthy sources. On the other hand, I think it is not constructive to address comments which are clearly baiting people, or which allude to conspiracies etc., especially when unsupported and when said myth has been refuted over-and-over again. Can the 'skeptics' please check their conspiracies at the door, and leave that sort of nonsense for the tabloids? FWIW, I have learnt much by observing from the side lines here, and have only recently plucked up the courage to actually post on certain topics to which I think I can add some value. SS is one of the very few web sites where one can come and discuss climate science without it spiraling into a food fight and yelling match, and where one can avoid threads being hi-jacked or spammed with unsupported conspiracy theories. John and the moderators have done an incredible job in that regard-- it must require a lot of work and diligence to achieve that. That said, I have noticed in the last few weeks that the 'skeptics' have been deviating more and more from the science, and while that might simply be a sign that they are becoming increasingly desperate, it spoils the experience for others and detracts from the science. Hopefully things will get back on track once the anniversary of SwiftHack passes. -
Phila at 10:49 AM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
Albatross: I think it is time to start ignoring KL and the other 'skeptics' here...really what is the point? They are not making any substantive contributions to these threads, but just parroting myths and fallacious contrarian speaking points. I hope it's not out of line to say that I currently can't take any of the regular "skeptics" here very seriously, or see them as adequately honest or coherent in their approach to the evidence for AGW. That said, arguments that have some basis in fact or logic do deserve a response, IMO. As do disagreements, honest or otherwise, about the correct course of action. But I do think we're at the point where conspiracy theories could simply be deleted (or edited out of otherwise substantive comments). And I'd interpret "conspiracy theory" pretty broadly, to include (for instance) darmorbel's attempt at mind-reading in #23. There's really nothing constructive or interesting about this sort of slanderous, evidence-free rhetoric. It's very easy for me to say this, of course. I don't have to do the work or make the decisions! -
JMurphy at 10:30 AM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
darmorbel wrote : "The Muir Russell inquiry was bending over backwards not to cause damage to fellow academics by giving them as much benefit of the doubt as possible but they could not in conscience fail to note the glaring inconsistencies in the work of CRU and by extension the reports of the IPCC. The inquiry members knew full well that the consequences of such an omission would have destroyed their own reputations, they were only too aware of what would happen if the did not cover all aspects of the affair should their report be examined in detail like I am doing now." Ah, the crux of the matter, as far as you're concerned : it was all a big conspiracy (along with all those other enquiries, which came to the same result), but you have exposed the hidden truth by your dogged determination. Of course. -
Albatross at 10:29 AM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
Yocta @41, Thanks. It does get awfully tiresome playing at whack-a-mole though. Fortunately this site is frequented by many informed and dedicated people/scientists, so we all share the burden. Anyhow, it is encouraging that the efforts of people like JMurphy and others are not going unnoticed. Here is a Google search for those wanting to read up on the alleged "hidden" divergence problem. -
Wombie at 10:28 AM on 23 November 2010Economic Impacts of Carbon Pricing
Thank you for the interesting site. My question is related to the effectiveness of the current proposals to limit/reduce CO2 emissions, I hope this is the right thread. My concern is that Global Warming is a serious threat to the earth and there is very little being done about it. I am skeptical that the various proposed measures will have any material effect on carbon emissions. These mechanisms seem to be based on imposing extra costs onto the various methods of producing atmospheric CO2. 1. The price elasticity of demand of energy does not appear to be linear. Increased energy costs are simply passed on and resources are diverted away from other areas. In New Zealand the price of petrol has doubled in the past two years with no drop off in demand. The price increases have just diverted spending away from other areas. Also none of the extra tax collected has gone to helping develop alternatives or even cycle lanes. 2. For the developing countries it seems reasonable to assume that they will just not comply with international demands for capping CO2. If trade sanctions are imposed it will create a black market for exports from these countries similar to what happens with the sale of prohibited goods in other markets [ie through intermediaries]. It would appear that the current proposed measures will have the following effects: 1. Allow for the imposition of trade barriers from non-compliant low cost producers ie the developing world 2. Allow governments to impose additional taxes 3. Allow traders and exchanges to profit from carbon trading IMO none of these measures will help reduce carbon. I understand that increasing price is supposed to encourage innovation. But as energy costs have been increasing dramatically in the absence of any new carbon taxes and scientists have been trying to develop low cost alternatives to fossil fuels for some time. It would seem unlikely that the incremental costs will not spur any additional research in the area. While I am not opposed to protectionism, increased government taxes, and greater profits for large banks, [per se], in my opinion these will do little to effect carbon emissions. Summary It really doesn't matter what the cause of global warming is. The important thing is "that" the earths surface temperature is increasing. The dominant strategy for man is to find practical ways that the earths surface temperature can be reduced. If less CO2 reduces warming we should reduce CO2 [although this is probably easier said than done]. If there are other things we can do to promote cooling we should do them as well. Rather than arguing about what the cause of warming is, scientists should be devoting all their resources to finding alternative methods of global cooling rather than just focusing on carbon. -
JMurphy at 10:25 AM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
darmorbel wrote : "In order to maintain this dendrochronological fiction, the instrumental records were substituted for the dendrochronological ones in the 20thC part without identifying that they were quite different since the method and location of the measurements were different; like was not being compared with like." This is quite a confusing sentence. To make yourself clearer, could you answer the following questions : Do you believe all "dendrochronological" data is fiction, or are you referring to a particular set of data ? Do you believe that "dendrochronological" data (i.e. temperature reconstruction) gives a more accurate reading for temperature in the 20th Century than thermometers ? Have you ever heard of the Divergence Problem ? What are you referring to when you write "the method and location of the measurements were different" ? -
yocta at 10:13 AM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
RE# 24 Albatros and others: I would hate you guys to give up. I don't have enough time to contribute much to SS but I always make time to read through the comments. So whilst trying to appeal directly to contrarians might seem to be in vain, it is the casual fence sitters that your comments will reach out too. Time and time again by reading through the comments one can easily deduce that the 'skeptics' are not in the business of trying to educate the reader. It is one thing to cry out and disagree with data, methods or 3 or 4 lines of an email but another thing to give evidence based reasons. The best comments on this site always link to peer reviewed papers or other relevant information (Something the skeptics can't seem to do). Don't let the mariner shoot you down! At length did cross an Albatross, Thorough the fog it came; -
Phila at 10:12 AM on 23 November 2010Climategate: Hiding the Decline?
JMurphy @ 25: I think this website should be more aware of such tactics (maybe you are ?) and not allow false and baseless assertions be made time and again by the same posters. I tend to agree. Although to be fair, I can see how it might be too much work to go back and check whether "skeptic" A already made assertion X in a previous thread. I do think all comments that rant about "hiding the decline" could be deleted with no ill effect. The facts here are easily accessible to laypeople, and there's no excuse for getting them wrong at this point. IMO, complaining about this "trick" should be treated as a willful, baseless accusation of dishonesty, and deleted accordingly. If we can't move beyond an argument that's so obviously absurd, it's hard to see how we can make any progress on more complex topics.
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