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Eclectic at 13:44 PM on 13 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
Bob Loblaw @47 , you are far too cynical in your supposition about the "protesting too much". Me — when I am phoning the VD clinic about some new symptoms, I am always enquiring on behalf of a friend. Truly and always.
ImaginaryNumber, there is almost no overlap in the positions of the scientific blogs versus the denier blogs, in regard to polar bears. Why do you suppose that might be ?
And why is there almost no overlap between Dr Crockford's position and the position of the mainstream scientists ?
The polar bear scientific experts dismiss Dr Crockford & her ideas, not for the reason that she lacks formal credentials in that area, nor for her failing to be among the "inner group" of mainstream scientists. Nor do they dismiss her for her lack of appropriate publications in the appropriate peer-reviewed journals.
Nor do the scientists dismiss her for being a contrarian, nor for having red hair.
The scientists dismiss her ideas, because she is wrong.
It is that simple.
(The question of her receiving money/benefits for promoting "Fake News" propaganda, is a somewhat separate issue. And please note that a friend of mine considers her actions as morally repugnant even in the absence of any transactions from Heartland, Koch, GWPF, etc. )
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nigelj at 12:20 PM on 13 March 2018Burning coal may have caused Earth’s worst mass extinction
Burning Mountain in Australia has an underground coal seam that has been burning for 6000 years, the oldest known coal seam fire, so just enough air must get in to keep it smouldering. It may have started with a lightening strike, or forest fire igniting part of the exposed seam.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burning_Mountain
Large volumes of methane are associated with coal seams, that probably adds to the combustion process producing more CO2.
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One Planet Only Forever at 11:26 AM on 13 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
NorrisM@30,
My latest comment was extended but consistent with my previous commenting on this site.
You appear to have a habit of misunderstanding what others say or 'understanding but misrepresenting' what they say.
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Bob Loblaw at 10:37 AM on 13 March 2018Burning coal may have caused Earth’s worst mass extinction
Here is a Wikipedia entry on a coal mine fire that has been smouldering for over 55 years. The second paragraph says "The fire is burning in underground coal mines at depths of up to 300 feet (90 m) over an 8-mile (13 km) stretch of 3,700 acres (15 km2). At its current rate, it could continue to burn for over 250 years.".
Granted, a coal mine included a way of getting air in, but clearly the burial hasn't snuffed it out. A large number of such fires would produce a large amount of CO2. Even if it's over hundreds of years, that's a blink of an eye in geological terms.
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Doug_C at 10:32 AM on 13 March 2018Burning coal may have caused Earth’s worst mass extinction
It's also possible that the end Cretaceous extinction event that involved the loss of about 70% of species in a small time frame is also in part the result of vastly accelerated volcanism in the Deccan Traps in what is now India.
Asteroid impact, volcanism one two punch
The impactor that created the Chicxulub crater would have produced seimic waves of 11 to 12 on the Richter scale at the site of impact, 10 at the location directly opposite on the Earth's surface and between 8 and 9 everywhere else.
The evidence seems to point to a liquifaction of the surface at the Deccan Traps which caused a massive pulse of volcanism releasing huge amounts of gases that greatly increased the climate change that was already underway globally and seen in the reduction in numbers of major species like the dinosaurs long before the impact.
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DrivingBy at 10:31 AM on 13 March 2018Burning coal may have caused Earth’s worst mass extinction
Another way of looking at it is that the Great Dying gave rise to new forms of life, including hominids and eventually us. The next one will make way for something else. Perhaps this is what Alexa was laughing about.
I suggest we preserve kittens and beagles, perhaps in geo-time capsules. Everything else can be left to chance.*
*No that is not meant seriously, there is no such movie magic technology, etc.
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Doug_C at 09:59 AM on 13 March 2018Burning coal may have caused Earth’s worst mass extinction
"It took about 10 million years for life on Earth to recover from this catastrophic event."
Is that on the species level, from what I've read it took up to 100 million years to recover biological diversity at the Family level?
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Doug_C at 09:57 AM on 13 March 2018Burning coal may have caused Earth’s worst mass extinction
Active link to Large Igneous Provinces page;
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:56 AM on 13 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
NorrisM,
With the following in mind, I look forward to seeing a Good Reasoned, Well Justified summary of the awareness and understanding presented by Pinker. Note, I require Good Reason to Feel Good. I cannot be party to any party or group that encourages people to Feel Good about pursuing activities that understandably create negative effects that others have to deal with.
I prefer to increase my awareness and understanding by reading a diversity of perspectives. I especially like to critically read the compiled better understanding of groups of people who have worked collectively and collaboratively through the years to develop a robust and thorough awareness and understanding of what is going on, developing a robust emergent truth.
I learned to do that as a Professional Engineer constantly pursuing increased awareness and understanding related to my work. That including reading and critically understanding developed Standards and Design Codes related to my work, and questioning the Feel Good claims made by product sales people.
My recommended reading list related to the understanding and application of climate science includes the following UN related documents presenting developed increased awareness and better understanding: 1972 Stockholm Conference (and the related UN Sustainable Development webpage), The 1987 UN report "Our Common Future", The IPCC reports, the UNISDR Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR), "Back to Our Common Future", and ultimately The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
These documents do not 'get it wrong by blaming both sides'. Generic, open to interpretation, emotional-trigger terms like Liberal-Conservative or Left-Right, or the names of any political groups are not used. They are all written from the perspective of helpful-harmful (see my other comments on this article).
My evaluation of things is guided by my developed awareness and understanding of the Emergent Truth of the need for humanity to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The SDGs are the result of international pursuits of increased and improved awareness and understanding of how to make things better for the future of humanity. The IPCC summaries of understanding of climate science are a sub-set of the broad range of improved awareness and understanding (emergent truths) that have been internationally developed over the past 50 years and incorporated in the SDGs.
International efforts to better understand what humans were developing led to the first formal international compilation of awareness and understanding in the 1972 Stockholm Conference <Insert both links - SD and the Report>. More international efforts in many fields followed.
In 1987, “Our Common Future” was produced. That improved understanding reinforced the results of the October 1985 meeting in Villach, Austria, organized by the WMO, UNEP, and ICSU leading to the 1988 establishment of the IPCC. It also significantly influenced the 1992 Earth Summit (the follow-up to the 1972 Stockholm Conference). And it led to additional actions including the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) process.
The collective international pursuits of increased awareness and better understanding, including “Back to Our Common Future” <Insert Link> published in 2012, all led to the compilation of understanding that is the emergent truth of the SDGs requiring global leadership to responsibly develop sustainable improvements for humanity, and undo/correct harmful developments.
The SDGs are an undeniably robust and defend-able set of objectives for development of leadership into the future. Efforts to delay the increased global awareness and understanding of the need to act rapidly to correct unsustainable and harmful developments can clearly be seen to be 'Poor Excuses designed to Feel Good', not be based on good reason.
As for throwing out the Good with the Bad, I agree. The corrections need to happen in ways that improve the life circumstances of the least fortunate. That is why it is important for all of the SDGs to be aggressively pursued and achieved, not just some of them. And the actions are not to be 'limited to a rate or to a degree that does not diminish incorrectly developed perceptions of prosperity or opportunity'.
The SDGs all need to be Really achieved. The creation of temporary unsustainable perceptions of achievement among a portion of current day humanity who unjustifiably want to Feel Good about things is not 'success'.
If Pinker's presentation points out the need for significant correction of the socioeconomic-political systems to occur in a direction aligned with rapidly achieving all of the SDGs then full marks for getting it Right. And bonus marks for presenting it in a way that will potentially be accepted by a diversity of people. However, if Pinker simply believes that future generations will 'continue an Enlightenment of figuring things out in the future' then he deserves no accolades.
This is not a 'Glass half-empty or half-full' difference of opinion or philosophy. This is a matter of critically understanding if there is any sustainable improvement of circumstances for the less fortunate or for the benefit of the future of humanity. What is required is a blunt assessment of whether harm is being done to Others, something that cannot be justified no matter how much benefit the ones benefiting believe they get compared to how much harm they think they are doing, or how confident they are in the ability of others to deal with the challenges being created.
Feeling Good about personal waste disposal used to be limited to the waste no longer being seen or smelled by the people feeling good about its disposal. People used to think that dumping their body wastes outside of their homes was Good Enough (from the perspective of the inside of their home). Progressive leadership based on increased awareness and improved understanding has developed municipal waste collection and neutralization. Those developments have not occurred because of the competition for appearances of superiority in games of popularity and profitability. They only developed through leadership imposing corrections and requirements that were contrary to the Private Interests of many of the people.
The City of London, England, could have implemented proper clean-up of waste flows to the Thames River far earlier than it ended up happening. The popularity of reluctance to accept the unacceptability of not cleaning it up delayed the correction. Many people were easily impressed into feeling good about not correcting the unacceptable over-development. They wanted to Maximize their Feel Good Enjoyment of Their Life by ignoring and avoiding the cost of reducing the waste and the harm it created.
The same can be said regarding climate change impacts. Future harmful consequences have already been created that Others who did not benefit from creating the mess are suffering from, having to struggle to adapt to. Even the best efforts to correct the wrong developments of the past will leave a legacy of harm. And the tragic part of climate change is that the burning of fossil fuels was long understood to also be creating many other harmful impacts. Yet some people today still try to defend the incorrect over-development that has occurred over the past many decades after the emergent truth (the inconvenient truth), of the need to correct what has developed was well established. They try to claim that perceptions of prosperity in places recently incorrectly developed over the past 30 years deserve to be protected, prolonged or propped-up.
An added note regarding Naomi Klein's position in 2016 on the proposed Washington State Carbon Taxes. Her presented position in “The Carbon Tax on the Ballot in Washington State Is Not the Right Way to Deal With Global Warming” in The Nation was based on understanding help and harm. It included limited and technically accurate use of political terms like Right-Left-Conservative-Liberal. She correctly used the terms when saying “the odd Republican” and “right-wing friendly”.
All of the most fortunate, not just the ones who care, need to be leading the transition away from burning fossil fuels. A carbon tax by itself, even a really big one, does not properly motivate the most fortunate to lead the correction and repair of what has developed (and especially not if the carbon tax is used to reduce other taxes on the wealthiest like the Washington State tax plan). The inequities of wealth distribution allow a wealthy person to continue living and pursuing profit while only suffering a minor (to them) inconvenience or cost (admittedly they often consider a penny paid to help others without a personal return benefit to be a penny lost). A rebate of the taxes to the poor portion of the population would be better. But even that would not achieve the required leadership by all of the most fortunate in the rapid transition to zero-carbon ways of living.
The way the games have been played through the past several decades prove that the developed socioeconomic-political systems/environments currently dominating/influencing the development/activity of humans fail to responsibly respond to developed better understanding, especially when that developed understanding is contrary to the Private Interests of the Winners in the systems/environments. Correcting those developed systems/environments is clearly what needs to happen.
A part of the required socioeconomic-political changes would be effective peer pressure among the wealthiest and most influential, acting like a collective of responsible professionals, to ensure they are all being helpful parts of the development of a sustainable better future rather than harmfully pursuing a better present for themselves (I never have claimed the need for a Dictator, but I clearly doubt that people frrer top believe and do as they please will develop Good Results. And I have Good Reason for that doubt). That peer action would be without regard for variations of beliefs/values. It would not pit Left against Right, Liberal against Conservative, Capitalist against Socialist. Everyone would focus on encouraging and rewarding helpfulness and discouraging and penalizing harmfulness. Emotional appeals would fail to create unjustified feel good distractions from the Reality of needing everyone to focus on increasing their awareness and understanding of how to be legitimately Helpful to the future of humanity.
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Doug_C at 09:52 AM on 13 March 2018Burning coal may have caused Earth’s worst mass extinction
nigelj @1
Large Igneous Provinces such as the Siberian Traps are fissure flow volcanism on a vast scale. This produces fractured surface rock over an extensive area. This could expose coal deposits that could then burn in the presence of lava.
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~polsen/nbcp/lipmc.html
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Bob Loblaw at 07:32 AM on 13 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
JohnSeers has much better reading skills than ImaginaryNumber.
Note that the context of this discussion should also include the post we are commenting on. The paper, looking at the web as a source of information, tells us that the dominant reference in the blogs that go against the scientific position mostly rely on the opinions of one person. There seem to be two possibilities:
- All the other "experts" are wrong, and this one source of alternative facts is the only true expert.
- That one alternative source is unreliable.
The denier web sites try to pretend that #1 is the case, and argue that Crockfords' credentials on non-polar bear areas is sufficient to establish her expertise on polar bears. [It does not.]
ImaginaryNumber is using the old dodge that questioning that evidence of expertise is an ad hominem. Combined with the other links to posts that actually refute her arguments, we have a good case to argue that because she posts junk, and because her resume does not contain any relevant experience, she is not an expert. Neither her blog posts nor her academic creentials support the position that she is an expert.
Methinks ImaginaryNumber doth protest too much. I have no reason to belive that IMaginaryNumber is posting opinions he's seen elsewhere - I suspect that his friend-of-a-friend style of posting is just hiding an opinion he wants to argue himself.
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michael sweet at 06:50 AM on 13 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
Norrism:
You have provided no information to support your wild claims in the past.
You must provide a reference to a peer reviewed economic report that claims reducing CO2 will harm the economy or withdraw your absurd claim.
You must say where you expect the 650 million refugeees from sea level rise to go and describe how Canada will house their share of these persons. We will leave the refugees from drought unaccounted for.
You must link a comment you made at SkS where you support the IPCC median sea level rise as 1 meter and conceed the damage it would cause. If you cannot you must withdraw your claim at 152 that you have supported that amount of damage.
In previous comments you have dodged these questions and changed the topic of discussion. We need to answer them so that the discussion can proceed on. Please do not change the topic again.
When you change the topic without resolving the discussion it results in no progress. Support your wild claims or withdraw them. It is sloganeering to make wild claims and change the subject instead of supporting them.
The most widely supported proposal is to return the carbon fee as a dividend to every citizen equally. If you only reduce income taxes the rich benifit while the poor and the old (who pay little or no income tax) pay more in taxes. In the US almost half of citizens do not pay income tax and would be taxed more to support the rich. This would obviously be unfair.
Please provide a citation to support your wild claim that a reduction in income tax would be a fair way to distribute the carbon fee.
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nigelj at 05:43 AM on 13 March 2018Burning coal may have caused Earth’s worst mass extinction
Fascinating and plausible theory where a lot of information fits the theory very well. However how do you get combustion of coal seams underground, because where would enough oxygen come from, or was the coal just ejected somehow from the volcanos?
On a related matter, a theory has been suggested that the ten biblical plagues of ancient Egypt were caused by a combination of a warming, drying climate and a volcanic eruption on the Mediterranean islands of Santorini, just north of Crete described in this fascinating article.
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nigelj at 05:18 AM on 13 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
NorrisM @32,
I agree a revenue neutral carbon tax makes sense in principle. Where did I say otherwise? Its just depends on the details.
You say "What is so wrong about generally reducing income taxes both for corporations and individuals by the amount raised by a carbon tax?"
Surely this is obvious? The carbon tax taxes corporations but then effectively gives the tax back to them in the form of a tax cut, so its pointless because things largely cancel each other out. As N Klein suggests it effectively rewards fossil fuel companies. It becomes a money go around. Sorry, its a nonsense scheme that is too weak to be of much use.
This is why I think it should be just an income tax cut.
However I think a better scheme overall is carbon tax and dividend, where the money raised is given back to the consumers to spend as they wish, or some is given back to consumers and some is given over to subsidising electric cars for example. Its largely revenue neutral.
I do agree a carbon tax that just hands money back to the government to spend on anything at all is definitely unacceptable. But as I have shown there are several alternatives to this better than the one in Washington, which virtually everyone has opposed. That scheme has no chances.
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NorrisM at 04:23 AM on 13 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
nigelj @ 31
The proposed Washington state carbon tax was similar to what had been instituted in British Columbia by the provincial Liberal government (slightly right of centre) a number of years ago. The promise was to reduce income taxes or other taxes by an equal amount so that it was "revenue neutral". I do not have the exact details about the BC carbon tax but my understanding is that the reduction applied to all income taxes, certainly not just corporations. I do not have those details regarding the Washington carbon tax. I do know that our new "left-leaning" NDP government in BC has announced that they are not going to stick with the promise of the Liberals. They are going to keep the money and raise taxes. This little "change in plans" I am sure will not go unnoticed by conservatives in the US pointing to what happens with promises of "revenue neutral" carbon taxes.
But in my view a "revenue neutral" carbon tax is the only practical way to implement a carbon tax in any jurisdiction given the conservative vote not withstanding the "dividend" proposal in the US because of the distrust of many (including the writer) about handing massive additional sums of money over to governments and expecting them to spend it wisely. Unless it is dedicated to infrastructure or R&D, I find that governments simply are inefficient.
A revenue neutral carbon tax puts a price on the use of fossil fuels irrespective of where the money goes unless it somehow finds its way to otherwise subsidize fossil fuel use but it would be bizarre to find any government implementing a carbon tax and then using the proceeds in that way.
What is so wrong about generally reducing income taxes both for corporations and individuals by the amount raised by a carbon tax?
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Eclectic at 18:15 PM on 12 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
ImaginaryNumber @44 , as you see for yourself, Dr Crockford's commentary is little better than rhetoric & cherrypicking.
That is very obvious to you, me, and any scientific thinker — regardless of whether a polar bear expert or otherwise. Crockford's focus on whether some of the Beaufort bear sub-population have lost weight, is very largely an irrelevancy to the "big-picture" that she alleges to present. Even worse is her focus on extremely short time-spans (such as the 8-year period mentioned in her comments).
More puzzling, is why you yourself have been drawn-in to focus your questions on such minutiae, rather than looking at the overall situation (including the long-term situation). You appear to have allowed yourself to be hijacked by your "specific friends" — who sound like straight-up denialists/science-deniers (call them what-you-will excepting "skeptics" — for if they were true skeptics then they would have abandoned climate-skepticism 20 or 25 years ago owing to all the scientific evidence available at that stage ! )
ImaginaryNumber, move your gaze from that one small leaf. Step back, and look at the whole forest. No point (unless you want the sport) in engaging with hard-core denialists — they are impervious to reason, and you cannot change them. Sadly. Neither logical arguments nor ad-hominem arguments will get through to them.
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JohnSeers at 17:54 PM on 12 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
"Dismissing Crockford simply because she isn't a polar bear expert ..."
Read more carefully ImaginaryNumber. Or do not try and set up a strawman.
What Bob Loblaw dismissed was not Susan Crockford or her points but the fake sceptics claims to build her up as an expert with the same credibility as people who have specialised in the subject for many years.
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nigelj at 17:53 PM on 12 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #10
I can just see exactly whats going to happen: " My insurance premiums have gone up $500 and they say its climate change. Why wasn't anything done about the problem?"
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nigelj at 15:03 PM on 12 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
NorrisM and OPOF,
Regarding the so called revenue "neutral carbon tax", this is from Naomi Kleins article.
"Meanwhile, it would offset carbon revenues by cutting taxes for big corporations, including major polluters. (According to the Seattle Times, Boeing could see windfalls of tens of millions annually.)"
This makes the tax largely self defeating imho, so maybe she was right to oppose it. Perhaps Pinker wasn't aware of this, or think's its unimportant.
While something is better than nothing, this tax looks too close to a nothing. If the tax cut was simply a personal income tax cut it, would have made more sense
I have read Kleins book This Changes Everything and it makes quite a lot of sense. Having said that, I dont think environmentalists etc should be demanding some combination of climate policies and economic reform, because it will just make already complex things into one package too huge to deal with, and would alienate The Republicans. But I do think Klein is right in many of her criticisms of neoliberalism, and something simply has to change, but as a separate things from the climate issue.
However when The Republicans point at Klein and claim that this shows climate science is really socialism in disguise, they are really using the views of just one person to create a false impression of climate science as a whole. Its a strawman and weak argument.
Norris I have bought a copy of Pinkers book. I will add it to the pile of things to read. I agree Canadas level of socialism appears sensible enough. I'm liberal, but towards the middle of the bell curve somewhere.
But America seems more to the right than NZ, even the Democrats are almost centre right leaning compared to other countries.
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NorrisM at 14:42 PM on 12 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
OPOF @ 29
Perhaps this will not make you Feel Good, but here is the exact quote from Pinker at pages 138-139:
"In one of the most surreal episodes in the history of environmental politics, Klein joined the infamous David and Charles Koch, the billionaire oil industrialists and bankrollers of climate change denial, in helping to defeat a 2016 Washington state ballot initiative that would have implemented the nation's first carbon tax, the policy which almost every analyst endorses as a prerequisite to dealing with climate change."
Do you think I am misrepresenting what Pinker had to say about Naomi Klien?
As to Feeling Good, I think Pinker's book Enlightenment Now might make you Feel Good about the world we live in.
On another matter, I do not think you could do better than appointing Steven Pinker as your benevolent dictator because from the general flavour I get from your comments (on many threads on this website) you do not seem to have much respect for the democratic process. This lack of respect for democracy is very troubling to me and I hope for others on this blog. Perhaps you can disabuse me of my view of your attitudes.
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ImaginaryNumber at 14:09 PM on 12 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
My thanks to all of you who have commented. I'm working my way through the links given, and will respond to those later. But first some general comments ---
Eclectic said: "ImaginaryNumber @39 , regarding polar bears, Dr Crockford is more [paid] propagandist than scientist."
I understand that, but it is irrelevant with the specific people I am discussing polar bears with. I, and they, are only interested in the scientific arguments, not with who paid whom.
Bob Loblaw said: "You use the phrase "...don't take kindly to ad hominem attacks..."
It is the fake skeptics that claim that Crockford is an expert on polar bears. It is they that present her background as evidence of that expertise. Tearing apart that "evidence" is not "ad hominem". Crockford does not present as a credible "expert".
Dismissing Crockford simply because she isn't a polar bear expert, and not specifically addressing her arguments, is an ad hominem attack. I suspect none of you (and certainly not me) are polar bear experts. But that doesn't stop us from expounding on the topic.
Again, I am working my way through the links you're provide to see if they answer the specific questions that I listed above in post 39. Thanks for your help.
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:23 PM on 12 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
NorrisM@28,
I am composing my thoughts regarding your recommendation of Pinker's book. I plan to complete that, and try to keep it short but will not limit the extent of logic/reason (philosophy) in it, but I wish to point out that Pinker may have misrepresented Naomi Klein's position regarding what is happening in Washington State. And I would add that it took me less than 10 minutes to look up exactly what Naomi Klein said on her website item "The Carbon Tax on the Ballot in Washington State Is Not the Right Way to Deal With Global Warming".
I have to say, what Naomi Klein says appears logical and well reasoned. It appears you either misrepresented what Pinker had to say about Naomi Klein, or you were uncritically reading Pinker, maybe because it made you Feel Good.
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nigelj at 12:33 PM on 12 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
Riduna @15, just to be clear by rapid sea level rise I mean several metres per century. I agree its certainly very possible, but surely low probability as against high probability?
For example the last IPCC report had the upper limit at 1 metre so clearly by implication they think chances or probabilities of more rapid sea level rise are low.
We dont know rates of sea level rise in the Eimean. This was a period of many thousands of years. However its certainly at the very least suggests current temperatures will lead to several metres of sea level rise, its just the speed thats in question.
Current rates of acceleration suggest 600mm to 1000mm by end of this century. Which is bad enough. Loss of ice shelves in Antactica could well lead to more rapid sea level rise, but the current real world data is suggesting nearer 1 metre.
However, just in case I wasn't clear in some way, (I thought I was) even low probability of rapid sea level rise, or uncertainty about the chances, is still extremely concerning, because the consequences of rapid sea level rise would be truly devastating. So people need to be thinking in those terms, and risk management principles and the precautionary principle need to apply. I hope I dont need to clarify this again.
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Riduna at 09:35 AM on 12 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
nielj - ‘Imho probabilities of extremely rapid sea level rise may be small’
This is similar to saying that the probability of sustained polar ice mass loss may be small. Among the reasons why I think this is unlikely:
- The level of greenhouses gasses already in the atmosphere is well in excess of levels prevalent during the Eemian when SLR was 6-9 metres higher than at present.
- Warming of the Arctic and loss of sea ice mass and extent is now occurring more rapidly than previously expected and is likely to accelerate GIS mass loss and release of greenhouse gasses from permafrost.
- Loss of ice-shelves is promoting faster glacier discharge in Antarctica and formation of relatively warm bottom water likely to erode the West Antarctic ice sheet more rapidly than hitherto thought likely.
Analysis by Dr Rignot of possible polar ice mass loss arising from these effects also suggests that SLR could occur rapidly and is likely to result in a multi-metre rise during the latter half of this century.
The present rate of SLR does not suggest this. This is because loss of land-based ice has been slow - starting off at a very low rate towards the end of last century but, 20 years later accelerating at a rate sufficient to give rise for concerns about SLR over the rest of this century.
A sea level rise in excess of 3 metres by 2100 is possible, even if deemed impossible 10 years ago and regarded as highly unlikely by many to-day. We can certainly delay this development beyond 2100 but can we prevent it? Possibly.
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Bob Loblaw at 00:22 AM on 12 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
ImaginaryNumber @ 39:
You use the phrase "...don't take kindly to ad hominem attacks..."
It is the fake skeptics that claim that Crockford is an expert on polar bears. It is they that present her background as evidence of that expertise. Tearing apart that "evidence" is not "ad hominem". Crockford does not present as a credible "expert".
The "fake expert" is a common tactic in the so-called debate on climate change:
https://skepticalscience.com/Resources-when-facing-firehose-of-falsehoods.html
You have been pointed to subtantive take-downs of her arguments. Read them.
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Eclectic at 19:15 PM on 11 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
ImaginaryNumber @39 , regarding polar bears, Dr Crockford is more [paid] propagandist than scientist.
You will notice the [Desmog] comment that Crockford (despite some expertise in evolution) has never published an article on polar bears in a peer-reviewed journal. Nevertheless, she has received money/benefits (from blatantly anti-scientific organizations) and has written very one-sided propaganda reports that are at odds with the mainstream opinions of scientists who possess actual polar bear expertise. Her "reports" are strong on propaganda rhetoric, and are weak on overall science.
She does indeed bring (as she claims) "a unique 'big-picture' perspective to the issue of polar bear conservation." ~ More is the pity !
On the particular faults of her statements :-
ImaginaryNumber, you will especially notice how she conjures with very short-term periods (e.g. 8 years of polar sea-ice) and draws a long-bow assessment that "all is well: no problem to see here". In typical rhetorical propaganda style.
You would normally think that a zoologist with an interest in evolutionary development would instead be thinking & talking in terms of centuries and millennia (and multi-millennia of glacial/interglacial cycles). In other words, she completely fails to present the 'big-picture'.
She also plays fast-and-loose with polar bear numbers (and the equally important question of their condition/fatness). Polar bears' numbers are difficult to ascertain by ordinary aerial survey; and their actual condition is vastly more difficult to assess properly. Bears with year-on-year poor condition can very suddenly crash in numbers. At which point, the problem is much more obvious — even to propagandists.
Yet Dr Crockford is buoyantly optimistic about the overall situation, and she seems to turn a blind eye to the long-term decline of arctic sea-ice (the polar ice for which the very-white polar bear has evolved — and has also evolved to a highly-specialized meat/blubber diet rather than the omnivorous diet of the brown bear species).
As you see from its coloration and lifestyle, the polar bear is an ambush predator. It relies on ambushing seals which surface to breathe at small polynyas and ice-leads and smaller breathing-holes. (A bear may even dig through shallower ice to produce an "attractive" breathing-hole.)
Yet the relation between polar bears and the ice-environment is not as simple as other species/habitat ratios (e.g. orangutans and hectares of forest). Normally you would think that "specialized apex predator" versus "shrinking environment habitat" . . . equates to high risk of extinction. But with polar bears, we need to look at the interaction of bear/environment with seal/environment — it can indeed be complex, depending on the foraging/breeding abilities of the seals in low-ice conditions (low-ice conditions which at the same time severely handicap the polar bears).
In the overall picture, the polar bears will suffer severe decline (and likely extinction in the wild) as the planet approaches "prolonged zero" summer sea-ice over the next 100 years or so. Note: the polar bears survived through the [hotter-than-present-day] Eemian Interglacial 120,000 years ago — but arctic conditions at that time were able to maintain some coastal ice, owing to a a different set of marine currents.
But all that is unimportant to Dr Crockford : she seems intent on using the [short-term] polar bear situation as a propaganda proxy-argument to "dismiss" AGW.
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NorrisM at 14:12 PM on 11 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
nigelj @ 27
One more book to add to the list given that the son of my best friend (no surprise, a judge) recommended that book to him. I left Vancouver before he had had a chance to read it.
As to Pinker, I am not sure that I have an issue with libertarianism if it is combined with utilitarianism which I also see in Pinker. He clearly believes in a social security net to the extent it can be supported long term. His Jewish grandparents are Canadian from what I gather having escaped from Europe well before the Holocaust so he comes from an interesting background. I appreciate that this is a similar background of Ayn Rand but I do not see that kind of philosophy in Pinker. I would call this philosophy rather than politics although obviously they overlap. As in many things, it gets back to the continuum of personal liberties versus the collective good. Where are each of us on this scale? We clearly know where the Republicans are on this continuum which is problematic for the world. Ayn Rand was at one end and Karl Marx at the other. Most of us are somewhere in between and it clearly impacts our views on climate change.
Reading in Pinker's book that Naomi Klien led a group successfully opposing a carbon tax in the State of Washington astounded me. She objected to it according to Pinker because it did not punish the polluters enough. As Pinker points out, this was a pure example of pushing a broad political agenda which plays right into the hands of those Republicans who say the climate change debate is all a massive scheme to impose socialism on the US. I personally think the level of socialism we have in Canada is a good thing but it is anathema to Republicans as we all know.
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Digby Scorgie at 14:04 PM on 11 March 2018Jet fuel from sugarcane? It’s not a flight of fancy
One day's jet fuel requires 34 223 acres of sugarcane. But I have a question: do you get 2500 litres from one acre every day or only when you harvest? The article does not make this clear.
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nigelj at 13:09 PM on 11 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
Riduna, great interview particularly the staged press conference. I think America has at least 3 issues flowing from this.
1) Climate models don't fully include all possible feedbacks and tipping points and are likely to be conservative, that is the message I got.
Imho probabilities of extremely rapid sea level rise may be small, but given the repercussions are so severe, you have to elevate this low level of risk to something of high level of concern. People in government who don't understand this need to get out of the way.
2) Who regulates the environment, federal or state agencies? This appears to be at the core of the Trump and Republicans concerns about the issue. I acknowledge its a difficult one, and we have to avoid too much centralised power if possible, however environmental problems do not recognise borders, and this strongly suggests it has to be largely at federal level. This is just the reality of the situation, regardless of ideology.
3) The election cycle means 4 years of climate progress, 4 years going backwards, rinse and repeat. The problem is these political systems are no longer adequate to deal with large scale, long term multi generational environmental problems. The UK has recognised this, and given over climate mitigation to an independent body, and its probably no coincidence that they have cut emissions significantly, without economic problems. Instead of attacking the EPA in America, it should be strengthened.
4) The Republcans are very rigid on the climate issue. Sure try to convince them through explaining the Bible would promote conservation, and the security threats posed by climate change, but I don't know if this will do that much. Everyone in the country needs to be telling the Republican leadership that they are simply wrong about environmental issues. Nothing will change until they are under real pressure and are totally isolated.
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John Hartz at 10:05 AM on 11 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
From the Climate Feedback Reviews section of the 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #9:
Climate Feedback asked its network of scientists to review the opinion piece, Polar bears keep thriving even as global warming alarmists keep pretending they’re dying by Susan Crockford, Financial Post, Feb 27, 2018
Three scientists analyzed the article and estimate its overall scientific credibility to be 'very low'.
A majority of reviewers tagged the article as: Biased, Cherry-picking, Misleading.
Review Summary
This article in the opinion section of Financial Post, written by Susan Crockford, claims that rather than being threatened by declining Arctic sea ice, polar bears are “thriving”.
Three scientists who reviewed the article explained that this article fundamentally misrepresents research on the topic. The author exhibits poor reasoning in arguing that polar bear population loss projected for 2050 should have occurred already if that science was accurate. Researchers do not ignore the evidence Crockford claims they do, but instead incorporate all published research on polar bear populations. Despite the article’s statements to the contrary, research shows that polar bear populations will struggle as ice-free periods (during which they cannot hunt for food) grow longer.
Financial Post publishes misleading opinion that misrepresents science of polar bears’ plight, Climate Feedback, Mar 2, 2018
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John Hartz at 09:51 AM on 11 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
ImaginaryNumber:
As has already pointed out to you, Crockford's psuedo-science poppycock has been thoroughly refuted by Dr Shaye Wolf* in:
Polar Bears at Ground Zero for Climate Change and Climate Science Deniers, Opinion by Shaye Wolf, DeSmog UK, Mar 5, 2018
Wolf draws from a number of peer-reviewed scieintific studies to rebute Crockford's propaganda.
*Shaye Wolf, PhD, is the climate science director at the Center for Biological Diversity. She graduated with a bachelor's in biology from Yale University and received a doctorate in ecology and evolutionary biology and a master's in ocean sciences from the University of California, Santa Cruz, where she examined the effects of ocean climate change on seabird populations.
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ImaginaryNumber at 09:25 AM on 11 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
Daniel and Bob, thank you for your comments. I'm no friend of the Heartland Institute, nor generally of those they support. But the skeptics I'm discussing the polar bear issue with don't take kindly to ad hominem attacks. So I was hoping that you at Skeptical Science could help me understand any possible flaws in Susan Crockford's arguments, as they pertain to the paper I linked to.
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/359/6375/568
https://polarbearscience.com/2018/02/01/polar-bear-specialists-double-down-on-message-of-future-starving-bears/
,
Apparently Pagano found that polar bears were sometimes not capturing enough ringed seals to maintain weight. (I haven't read the Pagano study because it is behind a paywall) Crockford wondered why Pagano didn't mention that typically Southern Beaufort Sea polars bears would have an abundant supply of ringed seal pups to eat during the spring of the year, and thus not have to depend on capturing adults. (Crockford provides references for her claim, which I can't verify.)Crockford then provides maps showing sea ice thickness for the years under study. These maps seem to show that sea ice thickness just offshore of the Beaufort seas was up to 5 meters thick. I don't know if this ice thickness is typical or atypical for this area? She then suggests that the thick ice played a significant role in forcing the seals to go elsewhere to give birth to their pups, thus creating a local shortage of prey for the polar bears.
Crockford then goes on to quote other reseachers (Stirling) who found that when they studied polar bears in the 1970s, during years of severe ice the number of ringed and bearded seals fell, and as a result so did the number of polar bears.
So my questions to you good folk of Skeptical Science are:
Is Susan Crockford missing critical information that would otherwise explain why some, but not all, polar bears lost weight?
And, did Pagano overlook any important factors in their study, such as ice thickness?
Moderator Response:[DB] "I haven't read the Pagano study because it is behind a paywall"
A full copy of the Pagano paper can be found here. See for yourself.
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nigelj at 06:29 AM on 11 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
NorrisM @26
Yes the enlightenment was very important, and numerous books have been written about it. Sad that America now seems to be going in the other direction.
Pinker is indeed more historical in prespective, and I do think it's good to acknowledge the positive achievements of humanity, and that many things have indeed improved. The media does give the opposite impression of course. As long as we have some healthy scepticism on some claims, like eclectics point about how povery is measured, something I have looked into myself. Things have improved overall in this regard, but not quite as much as some people like to claim.
I do give Pinker top marks for trying to be logical and balanced and avoiding taking a left or right perspective. It gives value and credibility to his work.
However I see a blunt libertarianism creeping in that I dont entirely like, and which is political ultimately, and it reminds me of Ayn Rand. But Pinker still does better than most in terms of avoiding political bias.
There is generational doom mongering, reinforced by a media eager to get attention. An economist pointed out to me theres always an economic crisis somewhere, but the world still moves forwards. I think the truth is in the middle on this sort of thing. The 2008 gfc was still pretty serious, and came close to a catastrophic disaster. It always comes down to detailed analysis of whats going on, and the best way forwards. Climate and economics are no different in this regard.
Best book I have read in years: "Sapiens, A Brief History of Humankind, by N Hariri." Very wry humour and easy to read style. Good bits on the enlightenment, climate and environment.
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nigelj at 06:02 AM on 11 March 2018Jet fuel from sugarcane? It’s not a flight of fancy
An area of sugar plantation the size of France and Spain is about half the size of the Amazonian Rainforest. There just isn't spare unused land sitting around anymore for biofuels.
You dont want to be cutting forests down or using arable land that is already cultivated, so sugar plantations will have to be on grasslands. We end up with less meat consumption which may not be a bad thing.
But nobody seems to have a global master plan for best use of land. Market forces are not appropriate in an unusual situation like climate change, and will just lead to destruction of forests.
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NorrisM at 04:46 AM on 11 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
nigelj and eclectic
Looks like Goldin's book is another one to pick up. Both articles are very interesting. Will get back to Pinker. I have read Shermer's earlier book and should also pick up his new one.
Will probably summarize my thoughts on Pinker's discussion of climate change once I am finished the full book.
My sense is that Pinker is primarily looking back at where we have come from and Goldin is attempting to look at the future. Obviously not all of man's developments can be attributed only to the Enlightenment but I think what Pinker is saying is that the Enlightenment changed the way we look at the world relying much more on science and reason rather than irrational beliefs (including religion) and superstition but also a higher respect for human life. I have not finished the book yet but if he does not credit Darwin's (Wallace) theory of evolution and natural selection with a major influence I would be very surprised.
But the facts presented by Pinker about our past are pretty encouraging that we can solve the ones in the future. I think that every generation has felt that the world is coming to an end. It is part of our apocalyptic nature I am afraid. It does not mean that we do not have real problems to solve but I think they can and will be solved (with the only asterisk relating to avoiding nuclear destruction).
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laurencerhunt at 03:49 AM on 11 March 2018Scientists have detected an acceleration in sea level rise
Multiple factors are accelerating, and in some cases, interaction effects could increase the rate of acceleration (e.g., flows of warmer air and sea currents into the Arctic, combined with declining sea ice area, volume and quality, reduced albedo, sunlight penetration into open water, interactions with seabed carbon, etc.). One has to think systematically when making predictions for rate of sea level rise.
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william5331 at 19:29 PM on 10 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
If we are going to use the term Ice Age for the icy period between the previous interglacial (the Eemian) which occured about 125,000 years ago and the present interglacial (the holocene) then we must find another term for the two to three million year period in which there have been betwen 30 and 50 cycles of glacials and interglacials (or glacial periods and interglacial periods if you like). If you want to see why this is important, look at the BBC production Ice Age Giants to see how not using the correct terms confuses the true situation.
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william5331 at 19:18 PM on 10 March 2018Jet fuel from sugarcane? It’s not a flight of fancy
The holy grail is a cost effective method to turn all the bagass as well into jet fuel. Sugar cane is a C4 plant which means it can turn much more sin into biomass than C3 plants.
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Riduna at 17:44 PM on 10 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
The Science Show, broadcast by the ABC on 10 March, includes a ‘must listen to’ segment on climate change – now occurring ten times faster than in nature. It is available here
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Eclectic at 17:43 PM on 10 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
NorrisM @23 , thank you for the suggestion re the Pinker book. If you are already well into devouring it, then I will first await your summation of the gist of his ideas. Regardless of whether his ideas for solutions to current problems turn out to be conservative or revolutionary in method, I hope the warmth of your advocacy will provide a worthy distillation of Pinker's thoughts. We certainly need all the intelligent analysis available.
The analysis of solutions. Toujours de les solutions.
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nigelj at 17:22 PM on 10 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
Norris @23, I had a really good quick read of Pinkers book (I know the owners of the shop) and overall its a good book. I have also read his wikipedia page. Like I said he makes lots of good points, and he is a quality writer. You are mistaking a criticism or two of pinkers book, for a total rejection.
He is right that human nature is complex, however human nature is not totally genetically determined, and is more of a combination of nature and nurture. Some of his views are a little too libertarian for me, but he talks more sense than many people.
I'm a supporter of humanism in some respects, and science and I was already familiar with many of his ideas and the history of declining violence.
I did some psychology at university and I'm familar with ideas about language aquisition. I really like psychology, but a lot of it's still speculative and contentious. Remember this.
Read this article Norris, just for the alternative point of view "The limitations of Steven Pinker’s optimism. Ian Goldin questions an oversimplified model for our complex era."
Pinker and climate change. This is an interesting article: He does indeed push nuclear power, but windpower and battery technology has improved and reduced in price since his article was written.
Pinker also says "New fourth-generation nuclear designs, a decade away from deployment, will burn waste from today’s plants and run more cheaply and safely." Now a decade is a long time in terms of the goals of the Paris accord, and you can probably double fourth generation nuclear power to two decades away at least. It's been promised for ages now, and still hasn't materialised.
However I agree with pinker that linking the climate issue to problems of corporate greed etc (still very serious problems I might add) is probably not the right approach.
So yeah it's interesting. Like I said, I'm reading a similar book by Shermer so Pinker will have to wait!
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NorrisM at 16:29 PM on 10 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
nigelj @ 21 and eclectic @ 22
If you actually want to read a book that makes you feel good about where we have come from (based upon factual statistics and charts) I suggest that you both buy Pinker's book rather than just skimming it at a bookstore.
Pinker is ranked by Times and Foreign Policy as one of the world's most influential thinkers. His book the "The Blank Slate" was a very interesting but challenging book to read on an entirely different topic.
Pinker is not a climate scientist (he is a Professor of Psychology at Harvard conducting research on cognition, language and social relations) but has been writing and conducting research for this book for the last three years (this according to Sam Harris). He clearly has a significant research staff behind him. If you want backup for statements made in the book, you will get the references in dividends.
I have now got past Chapter 10 of "Enlightenment Now" where he deals with the environment. There is not anything in that chapter that I disagree with. I appreciate on this website that this might not be the strongest incentive to read the book but sKs gets a positive footnote reference in the book. He clearly is a strong proponent of the future potential of nuclear power as well as other possible solutions. I do not think any of the main contributors to this website would disagree with his analysis of the problem of AGW. They may disagree with his suggested direction for solutions, especially nuclear power and the (last ditch) possible solution of climate engineering.
But anyone who wants some perspective on where we have come in 250 years thanks largely to the Enlightenment he or she will be in for a very enjoyable and educational read.
eclectic, I challenge you to read something that is not from some conservative think tank but from a highly intelligent person (clearly left of centre) who is dealing with many issues in this book that affect our world and not just the climate. I trust you agree there are other issues in this world that we have to consider. See if your views are not at least modified somewhat after reading this book. My guess is that you will not take me up on my challenge. However, I suspect that nigelj will be so tempted.
To escape the danger of living in an echo chamber we have to challenge ourselves to read things that we might not like but whose thoughts are from rational persons (with no axe to grind) who also backup their factual statements with references.
You can disagree with what you take from the facts that Pinker lays out (I challenge you to disagree with his analysis of the facts) but see if you do not somewhat agree with his analysis of where we go from here on both climate change and other areas of human endeavour.
I personally think that this book will have a major influence on political discourse in America and elsewhere in the world. You are cheating yourself if you just stand at a bookstore and read Chapter 10.
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Digby Scorgie at 10:55 AM on 10 March 2018Jet fuel from sugarcane? It’s not a flight of fancy
SirCharles @1
I was wondering about that too. One barrel equals 159 litres.
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nigelj at 09:24 AM on 10 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
The drought in Syria has been linked to both climate change and their terrible civil war.
www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-hastened-the-syrian-war/
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Bob Loblaw at 08:30 AM on 10 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
What Daniel Bailey said.
FYI, Desmog UK has published another polar bear post, including discussion of Crockford and her credentials.
https://www.desmog.uk/2018/03/08/opinion-polar-bears-ground-zero-climate-change-and-climate-deniers
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Riduna at 08:26 AM on 10 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
The article claims that the effects of ‘business as usual’ could result in reduction of the human global population. It is likely that this will arise as a result of a combination of factors associated with climate change and SLR including:
- Increased spread of vectors resulting in more rapid spread of diseases, exacerbated by the effects of heat-waves
- Reduced capacity to produce and distribute food due to loss of arable land and infrastructure caused by SLR and climate severity.
- An increase in the incidence of famine and growing inability of the international community to respond.
- Hostilities and warfare as communities and nations compete for increasingly scare essentials of survival, particularly food and shelter.
Very early stages of these developments are already in evidence in parts of Africa (S. Sudan warfare, Sahel drought) producing famine conditions. Reduced food crop production due to heat waves, drought and scarcity of water essential for irrigated agriculture is also evident.
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Daniel Bailey at 07:32 AM on 10 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
Probably because Crockford's "blog" isn't credible. Nor, due to obvious entanglements with FF concerns, is she.
If you care to bring research published in a peer-reviewed journal of some standing, doubtless your contributions would receive a bit more play. -
ImaginaryNumber at 06:55 AM on 10 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
As a new poster (I made my first post two days ago, right above this one) I'm wondering if the reason there is no discussion about the recent polar bear studies I linked to is because no one is following this particular blog anymore, or because the issues raised by Susan Crockford are not of interest to this group?
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nigelj at 05:25 AM on 10 March 2018Southern sea ice is increasing
Argus, you commented that the antarctic has only had low sea ice last year in 2017, and this doesn't constitute a trend. Fair enough, however the drop in sea ice last year was so dramatic it should count for something, and could be the start of a trend. Only time will confrm this of course.
Have a look at this graph.
As you can see in the article above, there are theories on why antarctic sea ice has increased that are compatible with a generally warming climate. Its a sort of anomaly.
Another example. We also see a few glaciers advancing while most are retreating globally, according to the IPPC. Sceptics somehow bizarely claim this means the climate isn't warming. Surely the obvious rational conclusion is the climate is generally warming, but local weather conditions in a few countries cause some glaciers to advance for a few years. And this is exactly what the science also says.
Most things point to global warming such as melting ice in the arctic and antarctic continent, global sea level rise, and global temperatures. There are localised exceptions, but there are good explanations for these things.
Moderator Response:[DB] Please note that Argus has recused himself from further participation here, due to frequent violations of the Commenting Policy here and for running a sock puppet user here in addition to his own.
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nigelj at 05:11 AM on 10 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
Argus @43, the moderator said the antarctic is off topic on this page. I will post a response on the page below.
skepticalscience.com/increasing-Antarctic-Southern-sea-ice.htm
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