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Comments 19951 to 20000:

19951. HK at 20:54 PM on 8 May 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #18
       

       DeanMJacksons claim that the GHE of a gas depends on its density can easily be debunked by comparing the molecular mass of some gases. The molecular mass determines the density of gases when their pressures and temperatures are the same. First, the two major constituents and non-GHGs in our atmosphere:

       N₂:                          28
       O₂:                          32
       And then some greenhouse gases:
       CO₂:                        44
       H₂O:                        18
       CH₄ (methane):        16
       N₂O (nitrous oxide): 44
       O₃ (ozone):              48
       NH₃ (ammonia):       17
       SO₂ (sulfur dioxide): 64
       CFCl₃ (Freon-11):    137

       So, it's evident that the molecular mass (and therefore density) of GHGs can be both lower and higher than the two major non-GHGs in Earth's atmosphere!

19952. jgnfld at 18:51 PM on 8 May 2017
       Is the climate consensus 97%, 99.9%, or is plate tectonics a hoax?
       

       william...

       This meme--popular among the disinformed, misinformed, and naive--is ridiculous. Without consensus, it is very dificult to do science at all.

       Galileo is remembered as right because he contributed greatly to the consensus of those qualified to judge his work. 

19953. Tom Curtis at 18:50 PM on 8 May 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #18
       

       Just for the record, DeanMJackson has now suggested that the experiment I linked to, although it directly contradicts his prediction, does not refute him because of the pressure induced warming due to the greater density of CO2.  Taking into account the dimensions of the base of the type of flask use, and assuming a volume in the flask of 1 liter, and pure CO2 (both obvious over estimates), the increase in pressure amounts to 7.1*10^-4% of atmospheric pressure.  Given the ideal gas law, and the fact that the flask contains a constant volume, that means the increase in pressure for pure CO2 would in the flask would result in less than a 2.6x10^-6 ^oC increase in temperature.  That is almost certainly less than the cooling associated with the endothermic reaction generating the CO2, not enough to register on the thermometer used, and certainly not enough to explain the approximately 1^oC greater increase in temperature in the flask containing CO2.

       Of course, we all knew each fact stated in the last sentence of the above paragraph without needing to crunch the numbers.  I find it difficult to believe that even DeanMJackson did not know that.  Therefore I now regard him as a troll and will treat him as such.  DNFTT

19954. scaddenp at 14:53 PM on 8 May 2017
       CO2 is coming from the ocean
       

       I would be fascinated to hear how someone can claim that the CO2 increase is coming out of the ocean while at the same time CO2 dissolved in ocean in increasing (mass balance issue) and pH is decreasing. "voodoo economics" rides again? The CO2 we emit magically vanishes? Good luck - I doubt you are arguing with someone who is used to the idea that positions can be decided by data. I predict a fallback to some other argument, just as vehemently debated. Perhaps you should force them to state what data they would accept which would change their mind in advance.

19955. scientificeconomist at 14:17 PM on 8 May 2017
       CO2 is coming from the ocean
       

       Sorry.... I started with a comment about me searching for the isotopic evidence that is stated in "what the science says" comment box.  It is not clear in the article's evidence however I see that a few commentors have provided links. 

       I plan to have those links tattooed to my forhead so that when I meet a rather obnoxious climate change skeptic again, like I did at a party last night, and he claims that climate science is a hoax and that any increase in CO2 is coming from the oceans, I can counter that claim and have him search the evidence as we speak.

       I jest of course.  Thank you for this website and allowing me to vent.  Climate skeptics can be frustrating, especially when they ambush with their arguments and you are 3 beers into what is supposed to be a fun night. This is my first time on this site and my first comment. I will post more valube comments in the future.

       Moderator Response:

       [DB] You can find a more detailed discussion of the isotopic evidence of the atmospheric rise in concentration of CO2 on this fine post by Tom Curtis.

19956. Tom Curtis at 12:43 PM on 8 May 2017
       Lindzen Illusion #2: Lindzen vs. Hansen - the Sleek Veneer of the 1980s
       

       JME @111, the relevant quotes are:

       1)

       "I personally feel that the likelihood over the next century of
       greenhouse warming reaching magnitudes comparable to natural variability seems small," he said. "And I certainly feel that there is time and need for research before making major policy decisions."

       2)

       "What does the temperature record already show about global
       warming? Do the data conclusively indicate about one-half degree centigrade (plus or minus 0.2 degree) global warming over the last century, as some proponents suggest? No, contends Professor Lindzen."

       3)

       "The trouble with many of these records," he said, "is that the
       corrections are of the order of the effects, and most of us know that when we're in that boat we need a long series and great care to derive a meaningful signal."

       4)

       "Nor, he said, was the temperature data collected in a very
       systematic and uniform way prior to 1880, so comparisons often begin with temperatures around 1880. "The trouble is that the earlier data suggest that one is starting at what probably was an anomalous minimum near 1880. The entire record would more likely be saying that the rise is 0.1 degree plus or minus 0.3 degree."

       From (4) you can project Lindzen's estimated trend temperature increase since about 1850.  Strictly for comparison purposes, this requires that you use either HadCRUTv4 of the Berkely Earth LOTI both of which extend back to 1850.  The GISTEMP LOTI only extends back to 1880, a time of which Lindzen says "... probably was an anomalous minimum ...".  Using a GISTEMP decadal or multidecadal average starting in 1880 to establish the baseline for Lindzen's predictions would underestimate his predicted temperature.  It also, however, overestimates his trend in that the 0.1 C rise is taken to be over a 30 year shorter interval.

       Further, for Lindzen to consider there to be an "anomalous minimum", he obviously considers there to be more natural variability (see (1)) than that generated by the ENSO cycle, plus volcanism and other short term effects.  That, however, is what is portrayed in the OP above.  Ergo, arguably the graph understates the prediction for global warming.

       To see to what extent this is true, I made a comparison between the Lindzen prediction and the BEST LOTI:

       

       Comparing this graph to those above, it appears that the errors made worked in Lindzen's favour.  That is primarilly because 1880 was not "...an anomalous minimum..." relative to 1850, contrary to Lindzen's claim.  Consequently the increased trend generated by using an 1880 start date brings the Lindzen prediction closer to observations than do the graphs above.  The only thing better for Lindzen in this more accurate comparison is the better fit with long term variability.  On the other hand, the complete failure to capture the continuation of the temperature trend from the 1970s to late 1980s by Lindzen makes his prediction absurd, if the overall under prediction of temperatures throughout the 20th century had not already.

       Lindzen commented on the observational record, saying:

       "Professor Lindzen cited many problems with the temperature
       records, an example being the representation of the Atlantic Ocean with only four island measurement sites. Urbanization also creates problems in interpreting the temperature record, he said. There is the problem of making corrections for the greater inherent warming over cities--in moving weather stations from a city to an outlying airport, for example."

       These were fair comments in 1989, when the GISS temperature record was based on meteorological stations only.  Now, however, the GISS LOTI and BEST LOTI include ship and bouy data for Sea Surface Temperatures.  What is more, BEST does not adjust for station moves, but rather treats any such move as resulting in a different station.  BEST also relies on far more meteorological stations than GISS even now, and certainly in comparison to the GISS product of 1989.

       Further, rather than "the corrections [being] of the order of the effects", as claimed by Lindzen in 1989, in the modern LOTI temperature series, the corrections reduce the effects:

       

       (See here)

       There is, therefore, no reason to doubt the essential accuracy of the modern observations.  Ergo, Lindzen was wrong - calamatously wrong, in his implied prediction of 1989.

       (Small note:  Lindzen predicts future warming as being small in terms of natural variability.  I took that to mean less than half of a standard deviation of the 1850-1950 temperature data, taken for the excercise as being entirely natural or nearly so.  That exagerates Lindzen's natural variability as anthropogenic forcing was a significant factor over that period.  Base on that yardstick, Lindzen's prediction for the trend from 1990-2100 is a trend of 0.008 C/decade, or 111% of his retrodiction of the observed trend from 1850-1989.  That is, his predicted trend rises by only 11% from his retrodicted trend.)

19957. nigelj at 11:37 AM on 8 May 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #18
       

       DeanMJackson @10, says "and greater density creates greater pressure, thus greater the temperature observed!"

       You must be joking surely. The CO2 doesn't just sit as a layer on the oxygen and nitrogen, compressing it like some sort of bicycle pump. Any effects on density when mixing together would also be trivial.

       You also said in another post "With a smaller volume than either Nitrogen and Oxygen,Carbon Dioxide can only possess LESS heat than Nitrogen and Oxygen"

       This is irrelevant. It's not about heat capacity as such. It's about the ability of certain molecules to both absorb and re-radiate infra red radiation and only certain gases do this like CO2. 

       Here is just one proof in the real world. Forget about flasks with mixtures of CO2 and other gases. Consider the planet Venus, which has an atmosphere of nearly pure CO2, and surface temperatures of above 400 degrees celsius, and compare that to earth where the atmosphere is mostly oxygen and nitrogen and lower in temperature. (But increasing as we add CO2)

       So despite your claims about CO2 having a smaller volume it has greater propensity to cause warming.

       Please also note Venus gets little sunlight at the surface, because it's reflected by high level clouds of sulphuric acid, and despite this the greenhouse effect from CO2 is enough to cause pretty intense temperatures. Its one demonstration of the greenhouse effect and it's been explained by the specific nature of the CO2 molecule and what it specifically does to radiation.

       This website ran an article a few weeks back, or had some comments from Tom C, or somebody on exactly how CO2 infuences radiation at a quantum physics level. I learned a lot, but I'm not sure where the article is now.

19958. DeanMJackson at 08:06 AM on 8 May 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #18
       

       Tom Curtis says, "1) The flask into which the CO2 is introduced is open at the top while it is being introduced. That means the pressure inside the flask remains at atmospheric pressure through out, and only sealed once no more CO2 is being introduced, so there can be no warming by compression of the gas. With the CO2 being introduced in this way, it merely displaces air, remaining in the flask because of its greater density."

       Reply:

       You do realize that Carbon Dioxide is more dense than Nitrogen and Oxygen (hence also explaining Carbon Dioxide's cooler physical quality than either Nitrogen and Oxygen; greater heat expands a gas, while less heat contracts a gas), and greater density creates greater pressure, thus greater the temperature observed!

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Excessive repetition deleted. You are about to relinquish your privilege of posting comments on this site because of repeated violations of the SkS Comments Policy.

19959. nigelj at 06:58 AM on 8 May 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #18
       

       Sorry, this is the link related to oxygen levels falling longer term

       www.livescience.com/56219-earth-atmospheric-oxygen-levels-declining.html 

       It's quite interesting quite apart from the climate issue.

19960. nigelj at 06:55 AM on 8 May 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #18
       

       DeanMJackson @2, none of  your comments above  make any sense.

       This greenhouse gas issue is nothing to do with volumes or densities of gases. The heat absorbing properties of interest to us relate to the shape of certain molecules like CO2, as in this article and animation below. This is proven textbook science. You seem to think scientists are dummies that dont consider all possibilities, but you just show yourself to be the narrow minded person.

       scied.ucar.edu/carbon-dioxide-absorbs-and-re-emits-infrared-radiation

       Your comments about the CO2 experiment with the jars lacked validity as pointed out above by Tom Curtis. They also just lacked plain commonsense, so the rest of your views are likely to be dubious at best.

       I suspect you are paid to spread garbage. No self respecting person would really believe any of what you say. It would only fool a few complete dummies.

       By the way your assertion that oxygen is a greenhouse gas is nonsense and also fails the commonsense test, as levels of oxygen have actually been falling slightly long term, so obviously cannot account for  global warming.

       scied.ucar.edu/carbon-dioxide-absorbs-and-re-emits-infrared-radiation

       The urban heat island issue you claim causes global warming is a myth that has been dispelled 100 times over, and there are plety of related articles on this website. Again theres a mountain of research like the Best Study with a mountain of complex evidence, but theres little difference in rates of warming between urban and rural areas, and that alone should tell anyone with any commonsense that global warming is not caused by urban development.

19961. william5331 at 06:06 AM on 8 May 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #18
       

       There is a chain of events that has to happen; all unlikely but all possible.  It may be too late but we can at least try.  Bernie Sanders must be elected with a new party and must then legislate to get vested interest money out of politics.  He must then do all the obvious things to get America off fossil fuels including legislating Hansen's tax and dividend.  Clearly all subsidies of whatever type must be removed from fossil fuel and transferred to renewables and energy storage and a huge program must be put in place to re-train people put out of work in the fossil fuel industry to take their place in the renewable energy field.  Other measures needed are obvious to any reasonably bright year 12 student.  The barrier are the very people we have put in place to solve problems like this.  This might help as well to convince the politicians.  http://mtkass.blogspot.co.nz/2010/10/forget-climate-change.html

19962. JME at 04:26 AM on 8 May 2017
       Lindzen Illusion #2: Lindzen vs. Hansen - the Sleek Veneer of the 1980s
       

       I clicked on the links to try to find Lindzen's temperature predictions shown in the figures, but they just led to some notes from a Mallove talk - no charts or data. Are those predictions published anywhere? If so, I think it would be very helpful. Thanks.

19963. dr_who1379 at 01:38 AM on 8 May 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #18
       

       Actually, if we do take it seriously and say---cut down or stop burning fossil fuels---we jump up .5 to 3 degrees C.  (due to the reduction of our sulfate caused global dimming).  This already pushes us past 1.5 degrees and possibly over 2 degrees C.  Damned if you do and damned if you don't springs to mind.

       All but the 'worst case scenario' in the IPCC rely on effective and immediate climate engineering.  And the worst case listed is 8.5 degrees C.

       Whatever we do, billions of us have got to go.  Famines expected in Africa this year to start (the Indian Ocean is very warm this year).  
       Dustbowls elsewhere to come.  Only a few even have a chance.

19964. Evan at 00:15 AM on 8 May 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #18
       

       In the article "No country on Earth is taking the 2 degree climate target seriously by David Roberts, Energy & Environment, Vox, Apr 29, 2017", the following statement is made

       "What is clear is that we are betting our collective future on being able to bury millions of tons of carbon. It’s a huge and existentially risky bet — and maybe one out of a million people even know it’s being made."

       It is not millions, nor billions, but eventually will be closer to a trillion tons of CO₂, or more, that we must capture, transport, and bury. If we must sequester 10 Gigatons/yr., and if we do that for about 100 years, that equates to a trillion tons. Most articles talk about CO₂ emissions from oil, gas, and coal reserves, but agriculture and the meat industry emits large quantities GHGs comparable to that emitted by the transportation sector, and to get to net-0, those emissions will also have to be offset.

19965. Tom Curtis at 23:37 PM on 7 May 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #18
       

       DeanMJackson @2, responds with much nonsense.  Rather than wade through it all, I will focus on his claim at the end that:

       "That being cleared up, do you recall your high school chemistry teacher’s instruction on the high heating effect of Carbon Dioxide, where there's two jars and a heater next to each of the two jars? Carbon Dioxide is pumped into the second jar, and the temperature rises faster than the temperature in the first jar, thereby proving that Carbon Dioxide is a warming molecule. What the teacher didn't tell you is that by adding more Carbon Dioxide into the second jar, naturally the temperature within the jar will rise faster than the first jar because the atmospheric pressure in the second jar is GREATER due to the addition of the extra Carbon Dioxide!"

       Here is that experiment being done properly:

       You will notice that:

       1)  The flask into which the CO2 is introduced is open at the top while it is being introduced.  That means the pressure inside the flask remains at atmospheric pressure through out, and only sealed once no more CO2 is being introduced, so there can be no warming by compression of the gas.  With the CO2 being introduced in this way, it merely displaces air, remaining in the flask because of its greater density.

       2)  The CO2 is generated by an endothermic reaction.  That means the CO2 is cooled by the process that generates it, and in turn that the CO2 enriched flask will be slightly cooler than the other flask at the start of the experiment.

       Because of (1) and (2), any excess heat gain by the CO2 enriched flask will be due to the IR absorption of CO2, and no other process; something DeanMJackson claims to be impossible.  Indeed, he claims that enriching the atmosphere with CO2 with no change in pressure would have a cooling effect, the opposite of what is observed. 

19966. chriskoz at 21:39 PM on 7 May 2017
       Evidence Squared #10: Debunking William Happer's carbon cycle myth
       

       Even though as I indicated @5, I don't value Happer as a worthy human after learning about his argumentation in this post, I still appologise for mispelling Happer's name as "Hepper" in my comment @10. Sorry.

19967. chriskoz at 21:28 PM on 7 May 2017
       Evidence Squared #10: Debunking William Happer's carbon cycle myth
       

       Tom@8,

       It's interesting that the "Munich analogy" can be taken at face value as a rational analogy and I agree to your point.

       However Hepper, when asked why this analogy is apriopriate, did not give any indication that Paris agreement was an inadequate response to the "Hitlerian" level of risk. Had he qualified his analogy that way, it would indeed be a valid analogy and not a fallacy. He was given a very clear and ample opportunity to precisely qualify his words. His only qualification was that Paris Agreement was a "garbage" that will result in nothing but "enormous cost". He did not say a single word nor did he even suggest the risk element that both Paris and Munich conferfences tried to mitigate. Ergo, the would be apropriate aspect of his analogy ws not on his mind. Absense of evidence in this case, is IMO the evidence Happer did not use his analogy in the literal sense you're trying to ascribe. On the other hand, the words he used in his qualification - "garbage", "enormous cost" - that added more emotion than precision to his argument, suggests his intentions were emotive rather than epistemic from the very start.

       BTW, there are many diferent, more recent analogies available to express that something is futile. E.g. SALT fiascos, why going back to pre-WW2 event? Because it carries larger emotional load. But, ultimately, Happer's failure to rationaly qualify his analogy is a key for us to conclude that he:

       - did not understand the face value of his words

       - used an inapropriate analogy to express his words

       - by looking for an emotive rather than intellectual analogy, he ultimately fell victim of Godwin's law.

19968. Eclectic at 19:01 PM on 7 May 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #18
       

       DeanMJackson, he might or might not return to give more detailed response to your lattermost post — but until such time as Tom Curtis makes comment, please allow me to say :-

       Your own comment that CO2 is a "cooling gas" in the atmosphere, can only be described as strange & confused.

       Your comment seems to rest upon the strange and magical concept that each atmospheric molecule of a low-specific-heat gas (such as argon) lives in its own little parallel universe and does not interact (collide) with neighbouring molecules of other types.

       Absurd nonsense, of course!  And your other comments are little better.

       Are you really so scientifically ill-informed — or are you simply engaging in disingenuous nonsense for its own sake?

19969. DeanMJackson at 15:50 PM on 7 May 2017
       Is the climate consensus 97%, 99.9%, or is plate tectonics a hoax?
       

       What determines an atmospheric gas' potential heat capacity?* Anyone know? Anyone take high school physical science or physics? What physical feature of a gas determines what the gas is capable of ingesting regarding heat? Don't remember? Does VOLUME ring a bell? Ahhh...volume! Yes, volume. So let's take a look at the volumes of carbon dioxide, oxygen and nitrogen ...

       One pound of Carbon Dioxide has a volume of 8.7 cubic feet,

       Oxygen is at 12.1 cubic feet.

       Nitrogen is at 13.8 cubic feet

       With a smaller volume than either Nitrogen and Oxygen,
       Carbon Dioxide can only possess LESS heat than Nitrogen and Oxygen, and when more COOLER carbon dioxide is pumped into the Nitrogen-Oxygen based atmosphere (>99% of the atmosphere's gasses), the result can only be a COOLING of the atmosphere.

       When the volume of any planet's atmosphere is increased by additions of a cooler trace gas such as Carbon Dioxide is on Earth, the result can only be a cooling of the planet, all other variables remaining constant. And if other variables should increase the heat of a planet, such as increased radiation from the planet's star(s), then the additional trace gas will have a RELATIVE cooling effect on the planet. To better grasp this fact, let's use a more familiar everyday experience we witness involving water: When a small amount of cooler water is added to a larger warmer body of water, the result is a cooling of the water.

       So what is warming the planet, you ask? The heat obtained by both Nitrogen and Oxygen comes from thermals and latent heat from the surface, heat from man-made structures on the ground, and the heat produced by incoming radiation absorbed directly by the atmosphere, not solely from the absorption of outgoing IR. The warmth that blankets us each day is due to Nitrogen and Oxygen, not the puny amounts of the trace gas Carbon Dioxide, nor any of the other trace gasses.

       Regarding man-made structures on the ground, interestingly NASA's 'earth's energy budget' illustration fails to provide the data on the amount of solar radiation absorbed by those structures, and it is the massive growth of urban sprawl the last sixty years that accounts for the atmosphere's warming, a warming that is being tempered by increasing amounts of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.

       That being cleared up, do you recall your high school chemistry teacher’s instruction on the high heating effect of Carbon Dioxide, where there's two jars and a heater next to each of the two jars? Carbon Dioxide is pumped into the second jar, and the temperature rises faster than the temperature in the first jar, thereby proving that Carbon Dioxide is a warming molecule. What the teacher didn't tell you is that by adding more Carbon Dioxide into the second jar, naturally the temperature within the jar will rise faster than the first jar because the atmospheric pressure in the second jar is GREATER due to the addition of the extra Carbon Dioxide!

       For those scratching their heads, forgetting their high school physical science class instruction, increasing atmospheric pressure increases heat.

       Now, a proper experiment, using the scientific method, would have included a third and fourth jar, where additional Nitrogen is pumped into the third jar, and additional Oxygen pumped into the fourth jar. But the scientific method isn’t used, because if it were the temperatures within the third and fourth jars would climb even higher than the second jar where additional amounts of Carbon Dioxide are pumped in.'

       ---------------

       * No, not 'molar heat capacity' as Tom Curtis informed us on another thread, since molar heat capacity tells us nothing about a gas' heat capacity due to their EXPANDING WITH HEAT! Molar heat capacity measures the heat capacity of the particles that are in a gas, and since gasses expand due to heat, molar heat capacity can't be used to solely quantify the heat of a gas. Molar heat capacity contributes to a gas' potential heat in also expanding the gas, therefore one must add molar heat capacity AND specific heat capacity (volume) to obtain the correct temperature of a gas.

       When Nitrogen, Oxygen, and Carbon Dioxide are at 70 F (and 1 atmosphere), all three have the same temperature, but which molecule has approximately one-third less of the 70 F temperature? Carbon Dioxide, which proves it's a cooling molecule in Earth's atmosphere.

        

       Moderator Response:

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19970. DeanMJackson at 14:41 PM on 7 May 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #18
       

       Tom Curtis says:

       "1) The heat capacity of a gas is, to a first approximation, a function of the number of degrees of freedom..."

       Reply:

       Which is why the drgrees of freedom for Nitrogen and Oxygen are LESS than for Carbon Dioxide, which is a function of Nitrogen and Oxygens greater volumes.

       Tom Curtis says:

       "2) "volume and mass do not measure the same thing."

       Reply:

       I never said they do!

       Tom Curtis says:

       "2) The heat capacity thus defined is the molar heat capacity..."

       Reply:

       Which tells us nothing about gasses that EXPAND due to HEAT! Molar heat capacity measures the heat capacity of the particles that are in a gas, and since gasses expand due to heat, molar heat capacity can't be used to quantify the heat of a gas. Only volume can determine the true heat a gas can retain at any particular atmospheric pressure and temperature, hence why Carbon Dioxide is a COOLING molecule in Earth's atmosphere. Very simple to comprehend!

       Tom Curtis says:

       "3) Heat gained by molecules by radiative transfer is almost immediately redistributed to the rest of the gas through collisions. Which type of molecule stores the most heat is therefore irrelevant to understanding the greenhouse effect."

       Reply:

       Gas molecules also obtain heat from ground based thermals and latent heat induced collisions caused by water vapor originating from oceans/seas/lakes/rivers, not just by radiative transfer, and which type of molecule stores the most heat is critical!

       Tom Curtis says:

       "The way the greenhouse effect actually works is through the capture and emission of radiation. For that to occur in the IR portion of the specturm, you need an electrical dipole (difference in charge) within the molecule."

       Reply:

       Why only the IR portion of the spectrum, Tom?

       Tom Curtis says:

       "That is effectively impossible with molecules made up of two atoms of the same sort, so O2 and N2 are IR transparent."

       Reply:

       Once again, why are you fixated on the IR spectrum? Nitrogen and Oxygen not only absorb infrared radiation, they also absorb gamma rays, x-rays, and uv light. Oxygen also absorb visible light.

       That being cleared up, do you recall your high school chemistry teacher’s instruction on the high heating effect of Carbon Dioxide, where there's two jars and a heater next to each of the two jars? Carbon Dioxide is pumped into the second jar, and the temperature rises faster than the temperature in the first jar, thereby proving that Carbon Dioxide is a warming molecule. What the teacher didn't tell you is that by adding more Carbon Dioxide into the second jar, naturally the temperature within the jar will rise faster than the first jar because the atmospheric pressure in the second jar is GREATER due to the addition of the extra Carbon Dioxide!

       For those scratching their heads, forgetting their high school physical science class instruction, increasing atmospheric pressure increases heat.

       Now, a proper experiment, using the scientific method, would have included a third and fourth jar, where additional Nitrogen is pumped into the third jar, and additional Oxygen pumped into the fourth jar. But the scientific method isn’t used, because if it were the temperatures within the third and fourth jars would climb even higher than the second jar where additional amounts of Carbon Dioxide are pumped in.

19971. Tom Curtis at 14:38 PM on 7 May 2017
       Evidence Squared #10: Debunking William Happer's carbon cycle myth
       

       saileshrao @6, the change in total CO2 stored as biomass is accounted for by the IPCC as Land Use Change ( or LULUCF), which includes emissions from agriculture, deforestation and reforestation, and desertification.  Cook and Jacobs are responding to a suggestion that human respiration has an effect on total atmospheric CO2 just because it is respiration, and without any consideration of total changes in biomass due to changes in how and where humans farm and source timber.

19972. Tom Curtis at 14:27 PM on 7 May 2017
       Evidence Squared #10: Debunking William Happer's carbon cycle myth
       

       chriskoz @5, personally I am not convinced of the soundness of reduction ad Hitlerum.  To me it is as often used as rhetorical avoidance of argument as are false (and offensive) comparisons to Hitler.  An example of that which you might be inclined to agree with are claims that calling the irrational objectors to climate science "deniers" are an attempt to are the invoking a comparison between AGW deniers and holocaust deniers, and that therefore supporters of climate science thereby show they are without coherent argumentative response, as per reductio ad Hitlerum.

       Better to unpack the analogy.

       The Munich agreement was an ineffective response to a very real threat.  By making that analogy, Happer commits himself to the view that global warming is in fact a very real threat.  A threat comparable to that posed by Hitler. 

       I would take issue with Harper's overwhelming confidence in an economic theory which is not supported by a consensus, ie, that the Paris agreement will cause enormous harm.  I would contrast that dogmatic agreement with a carefully selected subset of economists with his refusal to accept the genuine consensus on climate science.

       I would also take issue with his claim that the effects of the Paris agreement are trivial.  In fact, if actually implimented the Paris agreement will reduce expected warming by around 20%.  But it will not reduce that warming to below 2^oC, let alone the 1.5^oC above the preindustrial average that a significant number of relevant experts consider necessary to avoid substantive harm from AGW.

       But that the Paris agreement is an inadequate response to an (at least) Hitlerian level of risk?  Yes, that at least is true.

       And coming full circle, I will note that Happer's analogy paints climate change deniers as, not the equivalent of holocaust deniers, but of those traitors in the UK and the US who thought Hitler was a great man, and that we should take his side rather than oppose him.

19973. bozzza at 14:18 PM on 7 May 2017
       Is the climate consensus 97%, 99.9%, or is plate tectonics a hoax?
       

       Are not facts reached by consensus?

19974. Tom Curtis at 11:44 AM on 7 May 2017
       Is the climate consensus 97%, 99.9%, or is plate tectonics a hoax?
       

       Why is it that when the completely ignorant with no relevant knowledge on a topic want to demonstrate to the world how foolish they are, they cannot post on just one thread?  Like monkeys flinging shit, they don't seem happy unless they've smeared every wall.

       In any event, refutation here. 

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] Thanks Tom. Normally replies to deleted get dumped too but given your effort, it should stand and perhaps it might give our visitor some indication on the knowledge gap (not hopeful however).

       Dean - 

       Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right.  This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

       Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it.  Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter. 

       I suspect that Sks is not the site for you - other forums (eg WUWT) welcome comments likes yours.

19975. Tom Curtis at 11:41 AM on 7 May 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #18
       

       No doubt DeanMJackson's masterpiece of junk science, conspiracy theories and paranoia will soon be deleted for multiple comments policy violations, of which the most egregious are the accusations of fraud.  However, for the record:

       1)  The heat capacity of a gas is, to a first approximation, a function of the number of degrees of freedom it has, ie, the number of different way in which it can vibrate, rotate and in other ways store heat energy.  As a three atom molecule, CO2 has a greater molar heat capacity (28.46 J mol^-1 K^-1) than either N2 (20.8 J mol^-1 K^-1) or O2 (21.0 J mol^-1 K^-1)

       2)  The heat capacity thus defined is the molar heat capacity, ie, the amount of energy storable per mole (ie, 6.022140857×10^23 molecules).  Contrary to DeanMJackson, volume and mass do not measure the same thing.

       3)  Heat gained by molecules by radiative transfer is almost immediately redistributed to the rest of the gas through collisions.  Which type of molecule stores the most heat is therefore irrelevant to understanding the greenhouse effect.

       4)  Where DeanMJackson says:

       "With a smaller volume than either Nitrogen and Oxygen,
       Carbon Dioxide can only possess LESS heat than Nitrogen and Oxygen, and when more COOLER carbon dioxide is pumped into the Nitrogen-Oxygen based atmosphere (>99% of the atmosphere's gasses), the result can only be a COOLING of the atmosphere."

       he not only gets the relative molar heat capacities wrong, and misunderstands the nature of the greenhouse effect, he confuses heat capacity (an amount of energy stored per degree of temperature increase) with actual temperature. 

       4)  The way the greenhouse effect actually works is through the capture and emission of radiation.  For that to occur in the IR portion of the specturm, you need an electrical dipole (difference in charge) within the molecule.  That is effectively impossible with molecules made up of two atoms of the same sort, so O2 and N2 are IR transparent.  CO2, on the other hand, creates an electrical dipole in two out of its three vibrational modes, and can absorb and emit IR radiation strongly.

       I could go on.  His junk science does not end there.  But that should be enough to show that DeanMJackson is ignorant on the relevant science.

19976. william5331 at 09:27 AM on 7 May 2017
       Is the climate consensus 97%, 99.9%, or is plate tectonics a hoax?
       

       Consensus has little to do with science.  It may increase the probablility that the theory is correct a little but there are too many examples of consensus being wrong for us to harp on this point.  Climate change has the weight of peer reviewed science behind it and this is the point we should be emphasizing.  Plus the phenomenon of exposure.  A mountain climber would identify with this.  You may be on a very difficult climb on a bolder but are only a meter or two above the ground.  Nearly zero exposure.  On the other hand you may be on a cake walk on a ridge with 2000m below you on both sides.  Easy walk but horrendous exposure.  Climate change is like this.  The consequensus are ghastly if we are correct.  Besides, there are so many reasons other than climate change to get off fossil fuels.  Perhaps we should hammer this with the unbelievers.

       http://mtkass.blogspot.co.nz/2010/10/forget-climate-change.html

19977. nigelj at 06:53 AM on 7 May 2017
       Evidence Squared #10: Debunking William Happer's carbon cycle myth
       

       Chriskoz @5, your reductio ad hitlerum fallacy reminds me of another similar tactic called "poisoning the well" used repeatedly by Trump.

       "Poisoning the well (or attempting to poison the well) is a fallacy where irrelevant adverse information about a target is preemptively presented to an audience, with the intention of discrediting or ridiculing everything that the target person is about to say."

       en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_the_well

       Regarding Trump and his team, you are of course exactly right. Most people surround themselves with like minded people, and "yes men" and with Trump this has been taken to an an extreme level. The bubble they live in  is gigantic and dangerous, as it insulates them from constructive criticism and full information, so risks poor quality decisions.

       I would however give Obama some credit for including a few people with opposing points of view, regardless of what you think of him in other ways. So not everyone chooses to live in a bubble.

       However apparently Ivanka Trump is moderately sympathetic to climate issues, and Trump pays a lot of attention to "familiy". I hope it's not all a big pretence from Ivanka, but I'm trying to see some positives and not get too despondent.

       Another small ray of hope is apparently some republicans in congress are promoting renewable energy and carbon taxes etc. (from some reputable looking media article, I can't remember which one). The general opinion is that now Obama is gone, it's safe to promote climate issues. But I would think it's probably too little, too late.

19978. jlsoaz at 04:36 AM on 7 May 2017
       Antarctica is gaining ice
       

       Hi amhartley:
       
       Thanks for the response.
       
       Yes, I have been to nsidc.org a fair amount, particularly this page to try to understand each Northern Hemisphere summer what is going on with greenland ice melt:
       
       http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/
       
       While I do like that page, I must say I have not been able to find what I am looking for there, as far as clear non-scientist-oriented data that shows land ice changes over the years, whether for the Antarctic, Greenland or other places.  
       
       The NASA site I mentioned in my post above seems to show land ice mass changes.
       
       https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/land-ice/
       
       and it cites two sources:
       
       https://grace.jpl.nasa.gov
       https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/icebridge/index.html#.VDQh8UvLxd0
       
       There seems to be (as best I can make out) a common theme to both sources that they were satellite-based systems, with IceSat gone and GRACE no longer functioning fully, and both systems seem to have scheduled replacements.  (Maybe I am confused and they are one and the same system, but it seems like possibly different systems and different planned replacements).
       
       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_IceBridge
       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ICESat-2
       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_Recovery_and_Climate_Experiment#GRACE_follow-on
       
       Perhaps it is the somewhat challenging nature of the science journalism involved, but I haven't seen a single news story which gets at the important question of how important this land ice data would seem to be, that no widely-disseminated information seems to be available dating past 14 months ago, and that both sources are dependent on expensive new planned launches which we can hope won't be pushed back or cancelled, but which are still 2-3 quarters away at the least.
       
       Perhaps the IceBridge interim plane-based system can provide data, or perhaps other countries or systems are developing data?  Japan?  China?  NASA has literally labeled this as a "vital sign" and it does seem important, so I'm hoping to uncover if there is more reliable data out there.  Perhaps I have missed something at NSIDC.  Do you have a specific link in mind?

19979. Jfaw70 at 02:35 AM on 7 May 2017
       Sea level rise due to floating ice?
       

       Can anyone tell me how much is trapped in sea ice and there released when sea ice melts? There must be billions of tons of trapped air in floating sea ice I would assume, but I'm no expert. I don't have to be an expert to know what happens to the water level in my bath tub when I push a cup into in upside down.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] How much what? Please clarify.

19980. saileshrao at 02:17 AM on 7 May 2017
       Evidence Squared #10: Debunking William Happer's carbon cycle myth
       

       Unfortunately, John Cook and Peter Jacobs are also oversimplifying in the first video. Just because the metabolic carbon cycle is closed doesn't mean that it is balanced. Indeed, 20 million acres of land get desertified and 30 million acres of land get deforested each year, which shows that the metabolic carbon cycle isn't balanced. The planet's ecosystems are far from being in equilibrium.
       
       In his PNAS paper from 2008, Barnosky estimates that the biomass of all wild megafauna was steady at around 200 Million tons (MT) between 10K-100K years ago. Since then, the human-livestock population has overwhelmed the planet's ecosystems.
       
       Currently, the human biomass alone is 500 MT and we metabolize 0.93 GT of dry matter biomass (IPCC AR5 WG3 Chapter 11). Our livestock biomass is well over 1000 MT, but they metabolize 4.69 GT, FIVE times as much as all humans put together, because they are an unnatural mix of mostly young animals, who get slaughtered before they reach puberty.

19981. BaerbelW at 01:19 AM on 7 May 2017
       There is no consensus
       

       qwertie @749 & 750

       I disagree that we have to follow the framing of those who still deny the consensus and to then basically censor ourselves by no longer mentioning particular studies.

       As for the details from "Consensus on consensus", they are already just a click away and - at a guess - it wouldn't matter at all if that information were also included right within the rebuttal. They'd still ignore and/or twist it to their liking.

19982. Eclectic at 21:47 PM on 6 May 2017
       Humans are greening the planet, but the implications are complicated
       

       LinkeLau, like you I would not care to quantify the degree of benefit coming from "increased greening".  However, not many years ago there was a study by agricultural scientists, indicating that another 1 degree rise in AGW would cause a roughly 5% drop in wheat/maize/rice production (per Hectare), and 2 degree rise would cause a 10% reduction.  If so, then this reduction in food for humans would override any benefit from increased leafy food for livestock.

       Alas, I have not managed to re-discover the reference for the study, but IIRC it involved 3 research centres, one of which was in Sri Lanka and one in USA or Europe, and one in Australia I think.

       In trying to quantify things, we must remember that the increased greening of the land would not apply to the 73% percent of the globe which is ocean ( and including Antarctica ).  And probably not apply to a further 3% which is already commited to conventional crops.

       I speculate that there would be no extra sequestration of carbon by seaweeds, since they are already suffering from a surfeit of "available carbon" courtesy of ocean acidification.

       Rainforest would be in the region of 2% [and falling] of global area, and that amount is small and unlikely to be permitted to increase.  So an increased "cloudiness" would likely not occur, to have any effect on cooling through more reflectiveness.

19983. LinkeLau at 19:15 PM on 6 May 2017
       Humans are greening the planet, but the implications are complicated
       

       Dear Tom@4

       Thank you for your extensive answer and elaborations.

       1) In general I think it is a very hopefull message that additional plant growth could eventually drawn down all anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but I also understand that 'the price is high' for many plant and animal types. On the other hand - and maybe it is a form of my ignorance - I somehow trust that nature will find a new balance which will be positive for some plant and animal types and negative for others. Is it too bold to state that more vegetation in the long term means more biomass and also a wider variety of species? If we take a look at the dense rainforrest we are all happy about the variety of species that live there. Why couldn't that happen in large parts of lets say Australia, the Soviet Union, Canada or the US? With current agro technology development (agro towers, led light spectra, meat production based on stem cells, etc.) most of these lands will probably become obsolete for food production in the near future (30-100 years). So, reforrestry could at least sequester a lot of the access CO2 we pumped in that air. Lets 'built' forrests on agro ground that is no longer needed. It is already done in the Netherlands where obsolete grounds are 'given back' to nature.

       2. I don't have any expertise in this field and also based on logic reasonining it is hard to find an answer, but given the very cloudy atmospere in the rainforest I would guess that a lot of temperature will be trapped near surface, but as a compensation extra clouds reflect incoming solar. What the net effect will be? I can only guess. If I take a look at the maps that NASA produced it seems that the rainforrest could also have been a dessert without the forrest (assumption: the forrest keeps the forrest although solar irradiance is very high in some of those areas)

       3. Probably without these resistance to aridity the world would have been as it is now. Maybe this is one of the reasons (a miricle?) why the earth did not experience a runaway greenhouse effect before: plants adapt to a large extend if temperature as well as CO2 in combination increase to a high level by creating their own biotope? The cloudiness that follows (see reainforrest) helps re-radiating solar irradiance and that could start a new cooling phase?

19984. Tom Curtis at 10:31 AM on 6 May 2017
       Humans are greening the planet, but the implications are complicated
       

       LinkeLau @3:

       1)  All coal and peat used to be plants as some time.  It follows that, at least in principle, all anthropogenic CO2 emissions could be drawn down by additional plant growth.  It is not clear, however, that that could be done without forests colonizing much, or all of current agricultural land, plus land opened up by global warming (ie, former areas of perma frost, or areas formerly lying under ice caps).

       Having said that, if you look at the last time the Earth approximated to those conditions, ie, the Carboniferous 300 million years ago, you had a situation where trees were able to colonize much of the land surface because of the complete absense of vertebrate grazers.  The energy stored as sugars by photosynthesis approximately balance the energy given up by respiration by the plants and their predators.  To a first approximation, a joule of energy stored as sugars can support either 10 tonnes of plant biomass, or a tonne of animal biomass.  That is significant  because the Earth currently supports what is probably the greatest level of animal biomass it has ever supported - which greatly limits how much carbon sequestration due CO2 fertilization is possible.  It is also significant because any growth in plant biomass for CO2 fertilization will drive a corresponding increase in plant grazers which will also significantly limit the possibilities of sequestration.

       2)  Two complex for me to say.  Given that stomata will shrink, that will to some extent compensate for the increased leaf area.  Once you also through increased predation into the mix the change in evapotranpiration is, I suspect, not predictable.

       3)  The increased resistance to aridity is the one clear benefit from the CO2 fertilization effect.  The effect of increased vegetation is to reduce temperature fluctuations (primarily because of the heat capacity of their retained water mass) but to warm the planet because plants have a lower albedo than do most soils (particularly arid soils) or sand.

       I agree that CO2 fertilization is likely a positive effect, but it is not straightforwardly so.  Remember that increased plant growth will also apply to weeds.  Further, increased leafy mass will increase the populations of insects that predate on plants, making it more difficult to protect crops. 

19985. DPiepgrass at 10:02 AM on 6 May 2017
       There is no consensus
       

       Oh, and specifically it's no longer useful to cite Doran 2009 which asked if "human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures". Denialists will interpret "significant" as "anything above zero" and claim to be "in" the 97%. Instead be sure to quote one of the other 97% surveys that uses the word "most" or "mostly".

19986. DPiepgrass at 09:54 AM on 6 May 2017
       There is no consensus
       

       This page needs to be updated because denialists are using a new strategy: rather than deny the consensus itself, they deny what the consensus view is. One guy that I debated at length repeatedly ignored the words "most" and "mostly" present in many of the survey questions, instead summarizing the survey questions as asking whether warming is affected by humans "at all" so that scientists' views would not be in conflict with his (he and the 3 followers 'liking' all his posts ignored me as I repeatedly pointed out the ridiculousness of claiming "most" = "any at all".)

       Also, this page should give the EXACT wording of each survey question and the percentage of publishing climate scientists in agreement. According to the "consensus on consensus" paper, for instance, I noticed that 88% of members of the AMS surveyed whose area of expertise was climate science, agreed in 2014 that half or more of the warming was caused by human activities, including 78% who agreed that “the cause of global warming over the past 150 years was mostly human”. “An additional 6% answered ‘I do not believe we know enough to determine the degree of human causation.’” (Stenhouse 2014)

       Notice the window on this question: 150 years. Now, it’s clear the numbers on this very web site that humans caused substantially less than half of global warming in the early 20th century and before. Why, then, do 88% of American climate scientists still agree, despite this, that the roughly 1°C of global warming over the last 150 years was half-or-more human-caused? The obvious answer: although the human contribution was below half before 1940, it was far more than half in the last 50–65 years. So on average, in aggregate, humans are responsible for 50% or more, and much more than that if we limit the window to 50–65 years.

       Smart climate deniers may ignore this reasoning and focus on numbers like 78%, saying 22% disagreed and that's not a consensus. (The one I spoke with will simply change the subject and dazzle you with his encyclopedic knowledge of contrarian claims, never admitting that he holds a minority opinion or disagrees with scientists.) Yet if the question had asked about the most recent 50-65 years instead of 150 years, the consensus might have been 97%.

       We can't stop denialists from twisting words around, but if the survey questions and methodology are not easily discoverable to the public then it is harder to counter their claims.

19987. LinkeLau at 08:57 AM on 6 May 2017
       Humans are greening the planet, but the implications are complicated
       

       I am a bit puzzled why the Greening trend is not discussed much more. It is a) factual and b) might have large effects on global warming. Some questions that arise are:

       - how much carbon could vegetation take out of the air? If terrestrial vegetation now has a total of about 600 gigaton of embodied carbon, can that grow to 800 gt, or maybe even double to 1.200 Gt? In that case a large part of human produced CO2 can be taken out of the air. Or is this a false assumption?

       - what happens with humidity and cloud development when forests become more dense? How does this effect cooling or heating?

       - as stomata have to be less open when co2 level increases plants become more h2o efficient. This would mean plants can more easily survive on dry and hot places. And how does this affect the temperature as formerly dry places (desserts) are reforrested again. It seems that dessers now cool off quicly and also have a sort of Albedo effect

       overall, this seems to be a very positive side-effect of raising co2 levels but it seems a bit ignored.

19988. chriskoz at 08:26 AM on 6 May 2017
       Evidence Squared #10: Debunking William Happer's carbon cycle myth
       

       Tom@1,

       I find more appalling Happer's Godwin argument video where, he starts the discussion by comparing Paris Argeement to be "like  Munich Agreement".

       So Happer jumped to the Reductio ad Hitlerum - an ultimate emotive fallacy right from the start, and totally unprovoked.  Reductio ad Hitlerum is a technique used at the end of emotional discussions by trolls or angry disputers who run out of rational arguments. So any rational discussion ended before it started because a rational person will not want to compare their argument to the worst attrocities in history because it's like descending into mud to restlle with pigs.

       It's absolutely shoking that a person with scientific credibility (PhD in atomic physics) and experience (e.g. in optics and spectroscopy) would descend into such primitive, emotive fallacy, a 100% contradiction of epistemic reasoning. Can such "scientist" be capable of evidence based reasoning? I think he is not.

       At this point I have to recall that some commenters herein, have expressed a hope, that the new president could make a positive impact on AGW mitigation despite his ignorance of the problem, if he surrounds himself with right advisors who help him with right decisions. A hope, that I very much doubted from the start, because people tend to surround themselves with the peers they like and represents similar level of intelligence and moral development. That rule applies especially to the case of T-man: pigs like to roam in mud with other pigs, they are very  unlike to e.g. go to the university to listen to the lectures they don't understand. By that exact measure, T-man found himself a "scientific" advisor he likesw to hang out with and who shares his emotive stupidity. I don't need to add that Happer among scientists is the same as T-man among world leaders: a total failure.

19989. nigelj at 06:57 AM on 6 May 2017
       New publication: Does it matter if the consensus on anthropogenic global warming is 97% or 99.99%?
       

       Andy Skuce @5, yes I totally understand you needed to defend your published paper. I also think the Cooke methodology is the right approach and powell is making too many assumptions. I would have been terribly tempted to take the powell approach myself, and it's good you have highlighted why it's wrong. 

       I also just cannot believe you would get a 99.5% (for example) consensus on climate change, as climate change just has so many vested interests and ideological dimensions that are largely absent from plate tectonics, where the modern "overall" consensus appears to be virtually 100% (there is dissent on various details). The only ideological dimension to geology is likely to be the creationsim dimension.

       Climate change has far more ideological dimensions. This all gives me confidence that 97% is a compelling number and that anyting in the range 90 - 97% is plausible.

       But I was thinking more from the publics point of view of whether they care if it's 97% or 90%. In crude terms I would think the public would regard anything above 90% as pretty compelling. The public would probably regard a 60 / 40% split as much less compelling, and so on down the scale.

       I would suggest most of the public are smart enough to know there will be a few scientists paid by fossil fuel companies etc so that you are unlikely to ever get a 100% consensus, and that anything above 90% is plausible and compelling.

       However there are some people who clearly think in terms of anything less than 100% is not good enough, because thats how their minds work, but theres not much you can do about those people. 

       I dont know any specific research on how people perceive levels of consensus. However the issue is similar to probabilities and weighing the odds, and both economic science and psychology believe we make virtually 'all' decisions and judgements in life by "weighing the odds" in our minds. A google search would reveral material and research on this.

       So given how our minds work, if economics is right, I think our response to some level of consensus would most probably be proportionate to the level of consensus (no one number is likely to be a trigger, why would it be). To make sense of this I personally weigh the level of consensus against numerous other things, like the probability of whether renewable energy in large scale is feasable. My conclusion is that we have a climate change problem, and should do something

       Clearly different people will weigh the odds differently until a public view emerges on climate change. So all our understandings and actions are weighing the odds of multiple things, which is a stark sort of reality to grasp. On the other hand humanity has progressed a long way taking this approach, despite numerous problems along the way.

19990. michael sweet at 00:57 AM on 6 May 2017
       NY Times hired a hippie puncher to give climate obstructionists cover
       

       Bret Stephens most recent op-ed piece was rerun in my local paper.  Stephens claims that environmentalists incorrectly supported the corn ethanol biofuel business.  He cites a memo released by the Clinton Energy Department in support of his claim.  He claims that incorrect support shows that we have to proceed slowly on any changes we make to deal with AGW.

       I recall that environmentalists never supported corn ethanol.  Corn ethanol has always been supported by industrial farmers to use up excess corn they raise.  Perhaps someone here has better recall than I do.

19991. JARWillis at 00:09 AM on 6 May 2017
       New publication: Does it matter if the consensus on anthropogenic global warming is 97% or 99.99%?
       

       nigelj @4  I did once take on a denier somewhere on social media using this exact argument and he just became increasingly abusive. But you can't draw reliable conclusions from an uncontrolled trial of one subject (first with the news!) so it might be worth trying again.

       I suppose the crucial thing is to be polite and patient. Difficult though.

       While I'm here I must say I am a great admirer of the good people on this site.

19992. Andy Skuce at 16:38 PM on 5 May 2017
       New publication: Does it matter if the consensus on anthropogenic global warming is 97% or 99.99%?
       

       I agree that quibbling about the precise high consensus on AGW is rather pointless. However, Powell's paper had some harsh criticism of Cook et al 2013 and was not something that we felt we could ignore, especially as it was published in a peer-reviewed journal.

       We are convinced, as we explain in our paper, that the correct consensus estimate is around 97%. There really is a small percentage of scientists  (and published papers) that rejects or minimizes the dominant human cause of recent global warming. If you adopt a methodology, as Powell did, that only those papers (or scientists) that explicitly reject AGW, then you would miss several papers that implicitly reject AGW or minimize the human influence. These scientists should not be counted as endorsing the mainstream view that human emissions are the main cause of recent warming.

       My view is that it probably makes little difference for messaging purposes what percentage you use as long as its above 90%. But as far as I know, no experiments have been done to test this. 

19993. Andy Skuce at 16:17 PM on 5 May 2017
       Is the climate consensus 97%, 99.9%, or is plate tectonics a hoax?
       

       There were a couple of fairly recent articles cited in the paper that would count as rejection of plate tectonics:

       Ollier, C. D. (2006). A plate tectonics failure: the geological cycle and conservation of continents and oceans. Lavecchia, G. and G. Scalera (eds.), 427-436.

       Scalera, G. (2003). The expanding Earth: a sound idea for the new millennium. Why expanding Earth? A book in honour of OC Hilgenberg. INGV, Rome, 181-232.

       These are published in books and it's doubtful if they were rigorously peer reviewed. There are probably others. Incidentally, I believe Ollier also rejects the mainstream position on climate change.

       The last prominent western scientist to reject plate tectonics was the American petroleum geologist Art Meyerhoff.

       The Soviets were slow to embrace plate tectonics, mainly because of the influence of the influential old men who ran major research institutions. The Communist Party actually accepted the theory before many of the Soviet Union's scientists did. 

       My first ever geology course at Sheffield University in 1972 was taught by the department head, who was a plate tectonics denier.

       There's more on this in my blog article Consensus on plate tectonics and climate science.

19994. scaddenp at 12:48 PM on 5 May 2017
       Is the climate consensus 97%, 99.9%, or is plate tectonics a hoax?
       

       And in answer to question, at first look James Maxlow still seems to carry the baton of alternative theory from carrey et al. Last publication I can see in 2001 though did a book in 2005.

       Oh, yes Jan Koziar, a pole maybe. Published this in 2016.

19995. scaddenp at 12:35 PM on 5 May 2017
       Is the climate consensus 97%, 99.9%, or is plate tectonics a hoax?
       

       I think you need to be more specific. By "published", I assume you mean published in peer review journal. Plate tectonics is a vast theory with many aspects to it and some have been considerably more controversial than other. (The current theory of climate is similar). Criticizing some critical aspect of plate tectonics would be a while a ago, but in detail there is a lot of work to do.

       Skepiticism about AGW can take many forms.

       - skepticism about the GHE would be like skepticism of mobile plates and it would indeed be a long time since a paper like that showed up in proper peer review.

       - that man is responsible for CO2 increase is just about in same category but there is indeed a recent publication ( a serious failure of peer review) doing just that. I doubt you can find an actual climate scientist who doubts it however.

       - the GHG is primarily responsible for current climate change and that climate sensitivity is significant are much more focus of published peer reviewed science papers. Got one that hasnt been shot down?? This is the camp of any vaguely respectable scientist with any expertise on climate (Lindzen, Curry, Peikle, Spenser, Christie, Tsonis, who else??).

       The one big difference between plate tectonics and climate science is that plate tectonics does not imply a policy response and furthermore not a response that is antipathetic to entrenched ideology and vested interests. Got a "skeptical" scientist that does have motivated denial?

19996. green tortoise at 11:43 AM on 5 May 2017
       Is the climate consensus 97%, 99.9%, or is plate tectonics a hoax?
       

       When was the last article skeptical of plate tectonics published?

       I remember vaguely someone in the Soviet Union doing that some decades ago.

19997. nigelj at 09:55 AM on 5 May 2017
       NY Times hired a hippie puncher to give climate obstructionists cover
       

       Tom Curtis @40, yeah I agree with pretty much all that, especially your points about most of the dominant climate change deniers being unreasonable people, and your strategies to deal with them (and the general public) in your last paragraph.

       I think it's definitely a combination of exposing logical flaws in rhetoric as much as it is about science, and that the first approach should be polite and reasoned. If they still dont "get it" then shaming some of these people for their misleading rhetoric a little might work.

       But what do you do with people with no shame, conscience or sense of public duty? Christopher Moncton? Some media "personalities"?

       Its a rhetorical question. Maybe some people are beyond hope. There is still a flat earth society.

       Just as an aside, personalities also differ. I did some basic  psychology at university and have to also deal with clients in my work. One thing I have noticed (learning the hard way) is different people respond to different techniques of people management. Some respond to diplomacy, or praise, some need to actually be bossed around, some to humour, and its important to find out which way they are, and reaslise people are different. It seems obvious, but many managers and professionals just don't get it, and assume one approach will work for everyone.

19998. Tom Curtis at 09:02 AM on 5 May 2017
       NY Times hired a hippie puncher to give climate obstructionists cover
       

       nigelj @30, over time I have come to the conclusion that treating the majority of active climate change deniers who make a point of public commentary as reasonable people is a mistake.  That is partly because long experience has shown that they are in fact completely unwilling to be persuaded - as evidenced by their epistemic hypocrissy, their accepting as valid critisms of AGW where they do not accept the parellel argument as a valid criticism of their beliefs, even when those beliefs are far more vulnerable to the criticism.

       Keeping the discussion on topic, a classic example of the later is the "do not acknowledge the uncertainty argument" as mounted by Stephens and Curry.  When you look closer, you find the IPCC make statements qualified for uncertainty in two dimensions, ie, how certain it is given what we know, and how robust it is, ie, how likely is it that future knowledge will change our view on the topic.  There uncertainty margins are also quite large, ranging, for climate sensitivity, from 1 to more than 6 C 95% confidence interval for a doubling of CO2.  Their critics who insist the proponents of climate science are too dogmatic, in contrast do not give any indication of how robust they consider their views, and typically have much narrower confidence intervals for climate sensitivity (tending to range from 1-4.5 or less).  Simple logic tells us that if the IPCC is too dogmatic, those critics are also too dogmatic - an argument they will not even consider.

       This has focussed on the more "reasonable" critics of AGW.  As you know, there are many more far less reasonable critics out there.

       In any event, I have come to realize that dispassionate debate with those critics merely serves as a false marker that their criticisms are reasonable. An unknowledgable person viewing a debate between a climate scientist and one of these disengenuous (or at least, hypocritical) critics will assume that they represent the range of rational debate.  Instead, however, it is an example of political necessity forcing a debate of thoroughly irrational views which have no impact on research because they are, typically, unable to be framed in a way that is not transparently nonsense to those most informed about the issues.

       In that situation, the greatest service we can provide to our reader is to clearly mark the views we are criticizing as, in fact, irrational.  Where the person we are arguing against has a repeated history of mounting irrational arguments, and not accepting rational criticism, we owe it to our readers to indicate that also.

       This strategy has to vary with circumstances.  First, if we are dealing with somebody for the first time, we should indicate the argument is irrational, but not the person.  They may have been merely grossly misguided.  Further, when somebody is given a clear institutional marker of irrationality (Professor at a major university; columnist at a major newspaper), unless you clearly set the context you will come of as irrational if you relly to heavilly on this strategy.  In rebutting such people, you need to show why they are irrational.  But, you still need also to make the case that they are betraying the readers trust by presenting views that are actually irrational, cloaked with rhetoric, and rellying on the readers ignorance to make them plausible.

19999. nigelj at 08:29 AM on 5 May 2017
       Is the climate consensus 97%, 99.9%, or is plate tectonics a hoax?
       

       What you say makes complete sense to me. Lamar Smith means well, but his methodolgy doesn't make sense. The Cooke study methodology makes more sense to me.

       You also have to apply the commonsense test to any methodology. You would expect a few more sceptics in climate change than geology given issues such as vested interests, politics, and ideology that are not remotely as dominant in plate techtonics. So 90 - 97% sounds right to me and 99.7% would seem unlikely. More importantly this means 90-97% is a powerful number, in the circumstances.

       The real issue is more related to the media. They don't report so much on the consensus studies, and perhaps this is becasuse they prefer to keep a rather false or exaggerated debate going. This, if its true, is outrageous as it's putting the safety of the entire planet at risk.

20000. nigelj at 08:08 AM on 5 May 2017
       NY Times hired a hippie puncher to give climate obstructionists cover
       

       We seem to have this debate about should we politely reason with climate denialists, or be tougher on them, for example call their thinking idiotic?

       (I'm ruling out really nasty vicious insults, as it's unproductive and inappropriate)

       I think we are fooled into thinking its an either / or answer. I think maybe it requires a mix both polite reason and a few harsher words or assessments at times, depending on the individual sceptic.

       It's basic psychological operant conditioning, or carrot and stick. Trump is actually quite good at using these techniques, moving rapidly from praise to harsh criticism, even though I disagree with virtually all his policies.

       The police do a good cop bad cop routine, which is based on the same psychology.

       Frankly Stephens has such a wide range of dubious views on so many things, that you have to say theres a pattern there, and it looks irrational and cranky. He has to be called out on this. You can't just ignore it.

       Yes the NY Times has done some good articles on climate change and this needs praise, but they have made a mistake appointing Stephens in this particular role. It would be equally inappropriate to appoint Al Gore. You want someone respected for their balance, and as neutral as possible. 

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