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John Hartz at 00:43 AM on 11 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
ABloke #12: You would do well to read:
Physics Doesn’t Really Care Who Was Elected by Brian Kahn, Climate Central, Nov 9, 2016
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John Hartz at 00:33 AM on 11 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
JonBo 69 @#1: You asked:
Are we likely to see climate scientists face prosecution?
If you mean criminal prosecution, I sincerely doubt that would occur in the US.
For a more detail explanation of what might actually happen, see:
What Trump's Surprise Victory Could Mean for Science by Ryan F. Mandelbaum, Scientific American, Nov 9, 2016
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RedBaron at 00:26 AM on 11 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
@Haze,
What now as the questions about what Trump will do are clearly no longer "rendered moot"?
Sharpen your pencils and come up with a mitigation plan that is acceptable to conservatives. I highly recommend you don't use the word "tax" anywhere in the plan, but something similar could be in there somewhere.
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John Hartz at 00:25 AM on 11 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
Haze @10: My new crystal ball has not yet arrived. My old one disintegrated as the election results came in..
Seriously, I am as concerned as you are about what a Trump Presidency means for international and national efforts to mitigate manmade climate change. In fact, I have been posting links to numerous articles about this topic on the SkS Facebook page over the past few days and will continue to do so.
Here are the ones I have posted to date:
US election: Climate scientists react to Donald Trump’s victory by Carbon Brief Staff, Carbon Brief, Nov 9, 2016
Trump Victory in Presidential Race Stuns Climate World by Zahra Hirji, InsideClimate News, Nov 9, 2016
The Paris Agreement will survive President Trump by Thomas Hale, Climate Home, Nov 9, 2016
What it would really mean if Trump pulls the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Nov 8, 2016What Trump's Surprise Victory Could Mean for Science by Ryan F. Mandelbaum, Scientific American, Nov 9, 2016
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ABloke at 22:46 PM on 10 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
The whole 'Climate Change' thing is over. Trump will pull the funding, funding to the UN, withdraw from the Paris agreement. The UK have already closed down the Dept of Energy and Climate Change, Malcolm Roberts is precipitating change in the Australian Government. The whole thing will collapse like a house of cards.
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chriskoz at 17:46 PM on 10 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
Haze@10,
Do you really want to drill on the consequences of that sad morning of a new 9/11 (as 9th of Nov is written by the rest of the world)? What's the point?
Just re-read the OP replacing "would" with "will". As I mentioned somewhere else, climate mitigation will be the very first casualty under the new administration because there is not opposition in Congress to the raving of the irresponssible man, particularly in thsat area of policies. This is especially sad. The only good news is that Paris agreement signed by Obama administration thankfuly went into force Nov 4 for the next 4 years, so the irresponsible administration will not be able to withdraw US from it, at least not immediately...
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Haze at 11:58 AM on 10 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
John Hartz@2 "I personally believe that your questions/concerns about what Trump will do as President on the climate change front will be rendered moot after the votes are tallied tomorrow and Hillary Clinton is declared to be the "President-elect."
What now as the questions about what Trump will do are clearly no longer "rendered moot"?
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jbpawley at 11:42 AM on 10 November 2016So fracking reduces carbon emissions, right?
I hate to say anything to support fracked NG but:
It is really not just a matter of whether or not it replaces coal. NG can replace coal in 2 major ways: 1) as the fuel to a boiler that could otherwise use coal or 2) being burned in a gas turbine hooked to a generator with the hot exhaust then used to boil water into steam fed to a steam turbine/generator. The latter is called a combined-cycle setup and it is a very different animal. In particular, it can be turned off and on rapidly (Minutes?) and after warmup, it can provide a combined thermal efficiency close to 60% versus about 40% for a steam only plant.
This makes combined cycle a very useful method of filling gaps in renewables caused by changes in the weather.
So, the discussion of utility of NG isn't just about methane leaks and the fact that burning it produces relatively more heat for a given amount of CO2.
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Rocketscientist at 09:31 AM on 10 November 2016No longer taken seriously, we're seeing the last gasp of climate denial groups
Your ‘congregation’ could do with a little more of a balanced assessment of the points raised by Ridely (and many others).
I have a degree in Physics and helped developed the first satellite communication satellite systems used around the world i.e. so while not an expert I can understand the science involved. I'm also a greenie, left winger by nature and was initially at least very concerned by Al Gore’s ‘famous’ work. After spending a LOT of time and effort looking into the issues involved I came away impressed by much of the science of global warming - particular the ice age reconstructions - but extremely disappointed by much of the work on 'climate modelling'. The CO2 modelling fails the most basic of tests in that it HAS CONTINUNALLY FAILED to predict current trends or more importantly replicate the past paleoclimatic cycle data. To match the short term recent temperature data the models have continually required after the fact hindsight tweaking to match the data or the data has required tweaking.
So, when 'sceptics' point this out give them a little credit and admit the science is far from perfect. I've quoted your own assessment of Christies report below to point out the problem. You should acknowledge and THANK him instead you denigrate!
'So, this recent paper did a few things. First, they took the contrarian argument that the mid-troposphere temperatures have been rising at only 1/3 the rate predicted by models. They found that Christy’s team neglected the contamination of the cooling in the upper stratosphere. When they applied this correction, they found that Christy’s claim was incorrect. Differences between modelled and observed warming rates were much smaller, and had known explanations'.
The abstract is also provided below
‘We use updated and improved satellite retrievals of the temperature of the mid- to upper troposphere (TMT) to address key questions about the size and significance of TMT trends, agreement with model-derived TMT values, and whether models and satellite data show similar vertical profiles of warming. A recent study claimed that TMT trends over 1979 and 2015 are three times larger in climate models than in satellite data, but did not correct for the contribution TMT trends receive from stratospheric cooling. Here we show that the average ratio of modeled and observed TMT trends is sensitive to both satellite data uncertainties and to model-data differences in stratospheric cooling. When the impact of lower stratospheric cooling on TMT is accounted for, and when the most recent versions of satellite datasets are used, the previously claimed ratio of three between simulated and observed near-global TMT trends is reduced to ≈ 1.7. Next, we assess the validity of the statement that satellite data show no significant tropospheric warming over the last 18 years. This claim is not supported by our analysis: in five out of six corrected satellite TMT records, significant global-scale tropospheric warming has occurred within the last 18 years. Finally, we address long-standing concerns regarding discrepancies in modeled and observed vertical profiles of warming in the tropical atmosphere. We show that amplification of tropical warming between the lower and mid- to upper troposphere is now in close agreement in the average of 37 climate models and in one updated satellite record.’
To get the models to match it was also necessary to mess with the basic satellite data itself as well - probably for good reason but none the less more after the fact hindsight fiddling - yet AGAIN. Now all this is fine - that's how science and the models advance but at least acknowledge the problem and the fact that the science is NOT OVER. (PS the factor of 3 error was reduced to 1.7 – WELL DONE)
The other major problem is that none of these, what I call CO2 forcing factor driven models have manage to replicate the past ice age cycle data. Especially if the CO2 levels allowed to 'free run' rather than being artificially forced to match the ice core data response. The problem with the later should be obvious – does CO2 drive temperature or does temperature drive CO2 – obviously, a combination of both but the two factors need to be isolated.
This is basic 101 stuff - you have to validate major model assumptions before they have any credibility. The ONLY work that managed to do this as far as I've been able to determine was a paper (peer reviewed) published in 2013 in Nature. ' Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume.' This to me was a major piece of work which has largely been ignored. This group finally managed to replicate the past ice age cycle behaviour largely using insolation factors coupled with isostatic rebound of the continental plates. I'm sure you'll be aware of this work and its potential importance. Basically, they appear to have demonstrated that you do NOT need to assign an artificially high forcing factor to CO2 to replicate the cycles. As they noted from their sensitivity runs 'Carbon dioxide is involved, but is not determinative, in the evolution of the 100,000-year glacial cycles.'
FINALLY, you avoided the other incredibly important issue totally - which is to question whether a warmer, wetter planet with higher CO2 levels is a BAD outcome. The greening of the planet since the end of the last ice age has directly enabled us to develop agriculture and societies to the point that we now all enjoy. Past geological data also readily indicates the planet has been much warmer in the past and lush as a result. Plants have done an incredible job in terraforming the atmosphere reducing CO2 to TRACE levels. I noticed that there was no response to Ridley’s and other’s arguments in this respect.
These are important issues and as Ridley rightly points out the concern is that attention and resources are being diverted from much more important ecological and social concerns.
PS I wonder whether this post will survive your ‘peer’ review?Moderator Response:[RH] Multiple breeches of commenting policies. Please try again after reading policies.
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Bruce Frykman at 08:50 AM on 10 November 2016Paris climate agreement enters into force: international experts respond
Its a good bet with James Inhofe Having president Trumps ear, funding for climate science will be reduced from a torrent to a trickle, maybe even zero as budgets compete for dwindling tax revenues.
In that this is a world crisis can we expect most of our climate experts to continue to work in this vital area of survival strictly as volunteers who will fund their own travels and expenses.
Perhaps they could show us how little money it takes and how small a carbon footprint climate science can make.
Would climate scientists object if their thousands of meetings were by teleconference?
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william5331 at 05:11 AM on 10 November 2016So fracking reduces carbon emissions, right?
What is a little disquieting about all of this is that the world output of Carbon dioxide has apparently been decreasing over roughly the same period. Yet despite this, if you look at the Mana Loa site for Carbon dioxide increases from Jan2015 to Jan2016, Feb2015 to Feb 2016 etc, the jump is far greater than for similar intervals in the past years. What is happening here. Is it simply an effect of the severe El Nino we have just gone through or is something more sinister happening. Have one or more Carbon dioxide sinks started to shut down. We will have a better indication as the 2016-2017 figures start to come out next year as the effect of the El Nino fades away. If this is indeed a persistant trend, and continues at the same rate as it is doing now, it halves the time we have to reach whatever maximum allowable Carbon dioxide ceiling you subscribe to.
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Haze at 18:18 PM on 9 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
Well it's all over bar the shocked horror of those so confidently predicting a Clinton victory, much like the shocked horror of those predicting the UK would remain in the EU. In reality though I suspect the rhetoric of Trump the campaigner may not be his language now he is President. This unexpected result does show however, that the world's journalists are not very good at predicting the future. Will this result have an impact on the world's actions on climate change especially as the Republicans now control the Senate and Congress `as well as the Presidency? Personally I think having so much control is not a good thing
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Jonbo69 at 18:10 PM on 9 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
OK, so the American people have spoken; fair enough. It looks as if the US is going to go rogue on climate. Our politicians will do nothing so, for those of us living outside of the US, at some point in the near future there needs to be a call from the people to the people to boycott goods produced by American companies, incuding the ones we all love - coke, pepsi, perhaps even going as far as not watching movies made in Hollywood, and to not use American owned businesses - Starbucks, McDonalds etc. Simple as!
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nigelj at 08:09 AM on 9 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
William @6, you are right when Obama was first elected he sought consensus, and probably alienated some of his supporters. But if he had taken a more combative approach at day one, he would have alienated the Republicans in congress and got even less legislation passed. So he was caught between a rock and a hard place.
Obama also doesn't decide between Hillary or Bernie Saunders.This is decided by the super delegates who clearly favour Hilary. I doubt if Obamas opinion would have persuaded them otherwise, so its probably unfair to blame Obama too much.
Remember The Democrats are not a left leaning party like Labour in Britain. The Democrats are liberals and would be seen as almost mildly centre right in many countries. They are mildly left leaning on some issues. So I assume Sanders would be a lot for them to support.
This is just my understanding of the situation. I'm personaly sympathetic to Sanders and he did have a good level of public support.
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william5331 at 05:41 AM on 9 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
Sadly this whole debacle can be sheeted home to Obama. At the beginning of his presidency, because of a lack of experience he pursued the very laudable goal of getting the GOP on side to run America for the benefit of her citizens. He had a stary eyed view of his ability to create consenses as any reasonable man would. Arguably, as a result he lost his majority in the first mid terms because of his innefectiveness. He couldn't even shut down Guantanamo. Now, in his final major act he behaved as a politician instead of as a statesman and supported Hillary instead of Bernie. If Bernie had been the Dem candidate, Trump would have been history already and Bernie would have been on the way to the largest majority that any president has ever had. The only appeal that Trump has is his shared distain of the beltway with the American people. That is the total base of his success. Now Hillary will be president and that is not a pretty prospect. Whichever candidate wins today, America will have dodged a bullet.
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RedBaron at 03:05 AM on 9 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
Tom,
If my soils tests out at 8% soc and I lose it so that later my soil tests out at 4% SOC as I gradually destroy the topsoil or lose it to erosion. That is still arable gound. In fact with heavy fertilizer use I can probably still farm for a whileIn arable ground statistics you won't see it lost, only degraded. Further if I plow a former grassland or forest, (which starts the degradation process) it will actually show in statistics as arable ground increasing. This explains the apparent paradox you are seeing. Nor do I claim that the carbon vanished completely, some entered the atmosphering pool, some entered the ocean pool, some is redeposited only floodplains like the famous Nile Delta, etc... but sediments in rivers lakes and the ocean are a very large part.
However, the soil that has degraded down to as much as 1-2% SOC due to agriculture (basically farming on subsoil) can be managed in a different way to start increasing SOC. Is it too much of a stretch for you to believe that it might be capable of reaching that % SOC found historically? After all the subsoil is roughly the same parent material in roughly the same locations. It reached those higher SOC levels at one time. Why would you think it impossible to do it again with an agricultural system using biomimicry?
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Jonbo69 at 02:33 AM on 9 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
@villabolo,
Hi,
I didn't mean European governments, they won't do jack; I meant a call from the people to the people to boycott American businesses and goods produced by American firms, and for climate activists to have ongoing campaigns outside American owned businesses. Anyway, we'll see what tomorrow brings.
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Tom Curtis at 01:42 AM on 9 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
RedBaron @25 and 27, by talking about the potential size of the Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) reservoir as a sink for carbon emissions, you have changed the topic. Your evidence for the existence of a reservoir of that size is the purported loss of SOC to that extent due to agricultural practises, but in that event SOC loss represents have cumulative emissions approximately 4 times those from all other anthropogenic emissions. Worse, it means you need to find an additional 1550 GtC in known surface carbon reservoirs, ie, more than twice the size of the Dissiolved Organic Carbon reserervoir. Apparently over (at least) 800 GtC, having left the soils has "softly and silently vanished away" without going into any reserservoir.
Asked to defend these figures you point to a peer reviewed article which only claims a 50% topsoil loss for Iowa, not globally. That article further asserts that "per capita food supply has been reduced over that last 10 years [ie, 1985-1994] and continues to fall", whereas modern data shows the opposite:
It also claims that arable land is being lost at a rapid rate, but if so it is being gained at an even faster rate, for total arable land increased at a rate of 2 million hectares per annum from 1961-2013, while total agricultural land has increased at a rate of 10.6 million hectares per annum (FAO data). Further, the article does not directly discuss loss of SOC, and while its claimed 75 billion tonnes per annum of top soil lost from agricultural lands represents a problem, that loss is mostly from the 10.5% of the land area under cultivation. Most of that top soil would be deposited as silt in flood plains, or over land (if wind blown) so it does not represent the global loss of soil, still less that of SOC. In short, the paper does not appear to be reliable, and is certainly not directed to the point of discussion; on top of which you overstate its claims.
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RedBaron at 18:41 PM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
Read up on it.
The numbers are 20 years old. It's even worse now.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 17:20 PM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
RedBaron
Your numbers don't seem to add up. If carbon lost from the soils is 10 times what we see in the atmosphere, given that known human emissions from fossil fuels are only about 1/2 of what we can see in the atmosphere, that means that 10.5 times the visible extra in the atmosphere has gone somewhere else. 150 years isn't long enough for significant transport to the deep ocean so where could all that carbon be?- Upper levels of the ocean?
- Surface vegetation?
- Where?
No way the ocean could have taken up that much carbon and not be noticed. Gas exchange balance with the atmosphere would mean that concentrations in the atmosphere should be significantly higher. Or if it was organic carbon in the oceans, it would be visible. The graph Tom highlighted doesn't suggest anything like that level. And there is a balance between dissolved organic carbon in the ocean and marine biota. More DOC would produce huge blooms that metabolise a lot of it, converting it to inorganic carbon, entering the carbonate system and being detectable.
Your argument seems to violate mass balance.
What I would question, though I don't know the details, is the claim of 50% loss of topsoil in the last 150 years. Is that 50% of area or volume? Loss of top soil is certainly an issue - an oft quoted figure is 1/3rd of farmland is losing soil faster than it is created. But 50% already lost? Sounds too high. That would suggest that a reasonable proportion of the planet is back to bedrock.
Do you have a source for that number? -
RedBaron at 15:42 PM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
Scaddenp,
Right then basically the same yields per acre but with no inputs and better soil carbon sequestration.
Tom,
Sorry but not sure what you are missing, Of the ~2,700 Gt of C stored in soils worldwide, ~1550 GtC is organic, which is approximately double the current atmospheric C which is ~780 GtC.
This in not counting soil carbon held in peat and wetlands (150 GtC), inorganic C in soils (950GtC) and in plant litter at the soil surface (50 GtC).
~1550 GtC is the current levels but 1/2 of the topsoil on the planet has been lost in the last 150 years. So the size of the sink would be at least ~1550 GtC or greater before we need to worry about saturation, with all the carbon in the atmosphere only ~780 GtC and all we need to remove? What? Maybe 150-200 GtC. So the sink is approximately 10 times larger than it needs to be.
So at this point the main factor is rate of flux out of the atmosphere and into the soil. i am guessing maybe 40 years or so. However, emissions would thwart that time frame, melting cathrates could too. And I am no expert but I am told the ocean which is now a sink would turn into an emissions source should we start drawing down atmospheric carbon.
So maybe we will need all of that spare sink capacity?
Ultimately my statement was not false. We are missing 10 times more carbon from our soils as there is extra in the atmosphere.
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scaddenp at 13:07 PM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
Redbaron, our average was 2.9 cow/ha in 2013 with 1060 kg/ha of milk solids, much of it on podzols. I dont see anything in your resources that doesnt sound like common practise here - except that now they get stocking increase with inputs as well. Irrigators are taking dairy into areas with 18-25" rain pa.
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Tom Curtis at 12:02 PM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
RedBaron @19, I did not assume you meant that all SOC lost had gone into the atmosphere, but it must have gone somewhere. The industrial emissions in CO2 concentratin equivalent since 1870 accounts for 100% of atmospheric increase plus 100% of ocean increase plus 9% of the land sink. Given that, to a first approximation, Land Use Change emmissions, only part of which is SOC, cannot exceed 93% of the Land Sink (or 63% of the atmospheric increase). Given that much of the LUC comes from deforestation, the SOC loss accounts for appreciably less than that.
Strictly speaking, the Land Sink, Ocean DIC, and atmospheric CO2 are not the only sinks; and nor are anthropogenic sources the only sources. Allowing for these extra factors as per AR5 Fig 6.1, we can allow for 30 GtC being sequestered as ocean floor sediments and/or buried organic matter (ie, the raw material of future fossil fuels), but that is nowhere sufficient to make up the shortfall. Nor is the 3 GtC of Marine Biota (which is more likely to have declined than increased). The only other reservoir available is dissolved organic carbon, which the IPCC has as unchanged since the preindustrial, but which you require to have increased by 50% over that period for your claim to be true. Well, either that, or allow violations of conservation of mass.
Further, a large influx of dissolved organic carbon (of the order of 100 GtC over 150 years or less) would result in a large increase in DIC, with both showing as a significant change in δ13C; which has been shown to not have occurred by the sponge data. Given this, and absent any paper showing a large increase in dissolved organic carbon, your claim is shown to be false.
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RedBaron at 11:31 AM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
@21 scaddenp,
We are getting about 5X the stocking density using MIRG, than set stock rates. ie 400 cow days per acre in areas that typically get 80 cow days per acre. That's over 2 cows per hectare, almost 3. If you add chickens you get even more cow days plus eggs too. (chickens greatly improve pasture by eating parasites, grasshoppers and spreading manure) They are the clean up squad that follows a few days after the cows are off to another paddock. All this without a drop of nitrogen or irrigation and 30" annual rain.
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villabolo at 11:00 AM on 8 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
@JonBo69,
If Trump wins the presidencey we know he's going to srew up the climate, but additionally I am also wondering what will happen to the funding of climate science and also the independence of the main scientific institutions and organisations seeing as they are all supposed to be involved in some socialist conspiricy to get people to pay more tax? Are we likely to see climate scientists face prosecution? Any guesses?
It is Republican senators and house members who want to do that and they will be emboldened by Trump who would facilitate them in any way possible. They most definitely will defund as much as they can and continue persecuting climatologists.
Also, as a Uk citizen, I've already started to think about what can be done if Trump wins and goes about implemnenting his denialist policies. I think there should be a call to boycott all American owned businesses - McDonalds, Starbucks etc and to have ongoing demonstrations outside of these places in every town and city.
I don't believe that either the governments of the UK or Europe will have the desire or the will to do those things. They will simply view the horror show from afar and hope it doesn't come their way.
Deities help us all!
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scaddenp at 10:48 AM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
"Do you have a case study where low input intensive was case studied but failed to work?"
I have case studies of low input intensive (and heavily managed grassland) that have been shown to "work" (maintain SOC), but not at the stocking intensities common in dairying here. It seems that in US land values are lower and stocking rates much lower and more emphasis on output per animal. SOC is regularly monitored all over the country in numerous farm management systems. However, increasing SOC is not a priority. Would only become one if it was somehow involved in increasing net$$ per ha beyond what is achieved with high input. With more protection being ordered for groundwater and rivers, that may happen, but present government will not act in way that would reduce farm incomes, particularly when milk prices relatively depressed.
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RedBaron at 09:26 AM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
Ps Addition to post #18
That should read,
I don't even know that this particular strategy of intensification has even been tried on your particular podzol. As far as I know, only extensive and high input intensive have been trialed side by side on your particular podzol. Do you have a case study where low input management intensive was case studied but failed to work on your particular podzol?
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RedBaron at 09:06 AM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
@17 Tom,
I think maybe you read that wrong Tom. I am not claiming that all the soil carbon lost can be found in the atmosphere. It has gone many places, mostly wind and water erosion...and some into the atmosphere as well. The point is to address saturation, not to deny the major influence of fossil fuel emissions. Even though BCCS in the soil doesn't have the same saturation level as industrial ag or biomass sequestration in forests. There would have to be some finite saturation point somewhere. We know that point has to be at least as high or higher than soils' SOC were prior to degradation due to agriculture. So taking those figures we know that before we fill up the soil sink "bucket", we will run out of extra CO2 in the atmosphere "bucket". So far the soil sink is still large enough. But if we keep burning fossil fuels at these ridiculously high rates, eventually even as large as the soil sink, it would no longer be large enough.
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RedBaron at 08:50 AM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
@15 Scaddenp
You said, "Intensification on traditional dairy areas by adding more fertilizer is also bad for SOC."
Exactly my point. There is intensification due to management changes using biomimicry as a model, and intensification with increased inputs of fertilizers. The first should theoretically be able to push through the SOC barrier you describe. The second never can and never will. Goes back to what I was describing above in post #7 where we have two sets of numbers. But to actually give you a case study to prove that? Not sure we have a case study on your type of podzol on the books as of yet, since although common where you are located, it is rare overall, as this is a relatively rare forest soil to find in dairy operations elsewhere in the world. I personally would contact Dr. Christine Jones from Australia, to see if she might know of one.
I know the strategy I would try. I could even set up a side by side case study by splitting your dairy farm into two and try one beside the other. Or even 3. But I simply don't have access to a case study good or bad under the narrowly defined criteria you require. I don't even know that this particular strategy of intensification has even been tried. As far as I know, only extensive and high input intensive have been trialed side by side. Do you have a case study where low input intensive was case studied but failed to work?
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Tom Curtis at 08:48 AM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
Red Baron @4, claims that:
"There is more carbon missing from the soil than extra in the atmosphere."
That claim, however, is inconsistent with actual records of changes in CO2 concentration, as, for example, those documented in the Global Carbon Budget 2015:
As can be seen, combined fossil fuel and cement manufacture contributions(189 ppmv equivalent) exceed the combined increase in ocean Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) and atmospheric CO2 (182 ppmv equivalent). The land use contribution, including that from plant matter and Soil Organic Carbon is less than the reduction due to reforestation in the northen hemisphere and the greenhouse fertilization effect. Extending the data back to 1850 shows cumulative land use change emissions to be just 68% of the increase in atmospheric CO2, with industrial emissions representing 174% of the atmospheric increase.
Further, measurements of C13 in sponges show there to have been no large influx of carbon into the atmosphere or ocean since 1350, other than that coincident with the rise of industrial emissions:
To clarrify what you are seeing, the atmospheric pCO2 show measurements from icecores and and mauna loa. The Jamaica, Shallow Water show measurements from sponges at a depth of approximately 25 meters, which being in the mixed layer are expected to track atmospheric levels fairly closely. Those from Pedro Bank (approximate depth of 125 meters) are below the mixed layer, and so should track ocean levels of DIC. None show a large perturbation prior to 1850, after which records of fossil fuel use show them conclusively to have been the largest contributor to the increase in atmospheric CO2.
In short, Red Baron's claim is simply inconsistent with what is known about the carbon cycle in recent times.
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RedBaron at 08:23 AM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
@12 John,
Nope I am not familiar with them. I did a quick skim. Seems pretty legit to me. I don't see any red flags.
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scaddenp at 08:05 AM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
Intensive RG has been backbone farm practise here since 1950s (Gallagher electric fence invented here in late 1930s with massive improvement by the Phillips fence in early 1960s), but latterly, world milk prices have given rise to dairy conversion from both crop and lowland sheep, using large-scale irrigation systems on what was dryland agriculture with lots of nitrate as well as RG. We manage very high productivity per ha with low costs (eg see comparison of US with NZ done by Wisconsin here) with these systems. Since yield per ha seems to be driving force, it is going to be hard to get better soil management established, except that this dairying does increase SOC significantly on places that used to be dryland cropping, but not elsewhere. Intensification on traditional dairy areas by adding more fertilizer is also bad for SOC.
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nigelj at 07:42 AM on 8 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
Excellent article, and I couldn't agree more. Trump is in complete denial about climate change. Lets just hope sanity prevails tomorrow.
How did we get to the current sad state of environmental, political and economic affairs in the western world? I think its historical process that has basically crashed (almost like a computer crash) as follows.
During the post war period from 1945 - 1985 approximately western economies were protectionist and embraced welfare states, and this did work well in many regards. However the post war period became "top heavy" and hit a brick wall.
As a result we had the neoliberal market orientated reforms of the 1980s, financial deregulation, and embrace of free trade and very high levels of immigration. Some of this was definitely wise, but it essentially swung too far in some regards, and became a sort of economic religion that has lost touch with reality and ordinary folk.
Free trade has considerable merit, but has created some big losers in western economies, blue collar workers in particular.
We have failed to look after the casualties of globalisation with sensible government policies, and so people like Trump have tapped into their frustrations. However Trumps policies will just make things even worse. Brexit is a similar phenomenon.
The failure to mitigate the downsides of neoliberalism have allowed the crazy people to gain control, or get close to it.
And crazy people, fascists, demagogues, conspiracy theorists, and haters of liberalism and government programmes will be likely to be climate change sceptics. It goes hand in hand.
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RedBaron at 07:32 AM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
@13 scaddenp
Now that request is much much easier! Not only can you eliminate nitrogen fertilizers in a dairy system, your yields can even go up! Like before I will start with the easy to understand video to let you see the concept, then another like to a dairy manual and case study info at the USDA.
Trantham's Sustainable 12 Aprils Dairy Grazing Program: A Top Farm that Almost Went Under
12 Aprils Grazing Dairy Manual
And there is a different method used that also yields more per acre, but a bit less per cow by pure MIRG that doesn't need nitrogen fertilizers. Useful if you don't have a no-till planter useable for planting into sod.
Pastures for Profit: A guide to rotational grazing.
What a lot of those guys do is raise something else to make up for the increase in forage while the yields per cow slightly drop. Something like sheep or beef. Or in some cases instead they let some go back for a season for wildlife, similar to this:
Grassland birds: Fostering habitat using rotational grazing
One thing for certain though. I am quite confident the issue as to why the dairymen in your area are failing to continue to sequester carbon is the nitrogen they are using. There is absolutely no need for nitrogen ever in a dairy operation. It actually is counter productive as Tom found out only after he was forced to stop using it due to bankruptcy. Same thing Gabe found out too with his beef and corn operation. Same thing I am finding out with my vegetable research.
There is also one more option available for you if you are willing to expand beyond just dairy. You could try pastured eggs. Now this guy raises beef, but some of his graduated intern students use the exact same system, but with dairy and laying hens combined:
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scaddenp at 06:43 AM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
Thank you RedBaron. That goes a long way to explaining the dissonance between what is published and talked about here, and what you claim for US agriculture. Podzols are all we have.
Like Digby, I have got a lot of reading to do just from the reference list of the Savory paper you linked to. Now, how about an approach to dairying that isnt treating the soil as a hydroponic medium while pouring nitrates into river and groundwater...
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John Hartz at 06:17 AM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
Red Baron:
Out of curiousity, are you familiar with the work of the International Center for Biosaline Agriculture (ICBA)?
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John Hartz at 04:54 AM on 8 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
JonBo69: I personally believe that your questions/concerns about what Trump will do as President on the climate change front will be rendered moot after the votes are tallied tomorrow and Hillary Clinton is declared to be the "President-elect."
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Jonbo69 at 04:11 AM on 8 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
I have posted the following comment elsewhere but am reposting as this is a more relevent thread. Ireceived a partial reply, but seek further opinions:
If Trump wins the presidencey we know he's going to srew up the climate, but additionally I am also wondering what will happen to the funding of climate science and also the independence of the main scientific institutions and organisations seeing as they are all supposed to be involved in some socialist conspiricy to get people to pay more tax? Are we likely to see climate scientists face prosecution? Any guesses?
Also, as a Uk citizen, I've already started to think about what can be done if Trump wins and goes about implemnenting his denialist policies. I think there should be a call to boycott all American owned businesses - McDonalds, Starbucks etc and to have ongoing demonstrations outside of these places in every town and city.
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Digby Scorgie at 19:40 PM on 7 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
RedBaron @9
Cor blimey, mate! You've given me a lot of homework! I'm going to be off the air for quite a few days while I digest this!
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RedBaron at 15:23 PM on 7 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
@8 scaddenp,
I think that would be an almost impossible task, since podzols are primarily forest soils. So right off the bat, just being in grass shows it most likely was degraded already when the forest was removed. BCCS would basically use that as pasture only until the topsoil recovered, then reforest it if possible.
Now for years it was thought impossible to ever convert a podzol into a mollic soil. I did hear a soil scientist in a lecture claim almost as an aside that this is no longer the case. But he didn't provide a case study or published paper, so I have no way to pass that along to you.
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RedBaron at 14:47 PM on 7 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
@Digby Scorgie,
Agreed with pretty much everything you said! We do have to have a clear vision, and it must use technology available right now! You are absolutely correct. Since you are unfamiliar, let me give you double sets of examples, first to show you what it can look like, and gradually ease into a more scientific analysis.
Lets start with Beef (although it applies equally for all large grazing herbivores)
How to green the world's deserts and reverse climate change | Allan Savory
Restoring The Climate Through Capture and Storage of Soil Carbon ... White Paper
Next lets add wheat and most small grains. Here is what it looks like and analysis of case studies.
Why pasture cropping is such a Big Deal
Liquid carbon pathway unrecognised
Next rice
The System of Rice Intensification (SRI)… … is climate-smart rice production
JOURNAL ARTICLES ABOUT THE SYSTEM OF RICE INTENSIFICATION (SRI)
And even though probably the most significant gain is in NOT growing so much corn, (at least 50-70% less) there still is a need for SOME corn. So to do that requires a kind of integrated hybrid system between the modern industrial and regenerative models.
Gabe Brown: Keys To Building a Healthy Soil
Innovative No-Till: Using Multi-Species Cover Crops to Improve Soil Health
I actually could go on and on for every little crop, but hopefully you have a clear picture of the principles in your mind now, and can see the pathway forward. There are actually a few minor gaps still, but nothing substantial enough to limit the potential of this mitigation strategy. Like the movie correctly stated, things like vegetables are about 1% or so. The big ones covering the majority of land are covered with the posts above.
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scaddenp at 14:07 PM on 7 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
Can you point me to a paper showing net SOC from MIRG operating on a podzol that wasnt degraded by cropping before the trial started? Podzols are what we have and no one here can point to any SOC increase from any dairy operation except short term gains on degraded soils.
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RedBaron at 13:10 PM on 7 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
@Scaddenp,
Not only am I familiar with both those studies, I happen to agree with them. In fact I was stating that very thing long before the studies came out! As I have stated elsewhere here at this forum, that's why we have two sets of numbers, with very different calculated ranges of mitigation potential. Those two sets of numbers corresponding to the potential for industrial ag to mitigate AGW, and the potential for regenerative ag to mitigate AGW. There are fundamental differences that are profound with regards to ecosystem function.
Industrial ag is based on a net sum zero production model. Regenerative ag is not bound by this, as it is a complex biological model. Just to give an example pertinent to the movie. Methane. In the industrialised production model we have now we can improve methane emissions by careful manure handling and collecting methane as a biogas fuel. But at the absolute MAX the best we could even even theorectically do is collect 100% of the methane cows emit. Grass fed beef in a properly managed MIRG system has the potential to offset 100% of all cow emissions plus a substantial % of emissions from other sources due to increased biological oxidation of methanotrophs in the soil that grow and maintain themselves at concentrations lower than atmospheric. That's just one example to iilustrate the point.
The subsurface location of methanotrophs means that energy
requirements for maintenance and growth are obtained from
CH4 concentrations that are lower than atmospheric Soil Microorganisms as Controllers of Atmospheric Trace Gases (H2, CO, CH4, OCS, N2O, and NO) RALF CONRAD* Max-Planck-Institut fu¨r terrestrische Mikrobiologie, D-35043 Marburg, GermanyIn realistic terms that means the best we could ever hope for without fundamental changes in the production models would top out around 18-20%. Although some unrealistically optomistic studies top it out at nearly 60%. I have doubts it could ever reach that high. Maybe.
But change the production models and we get very different numbers starting at 62% min and going all the way up to 250%+. BCCS is just a completely different approach that doesn't function in the same way as the systems those links you posted function.
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scaddenp at 11:17 AM on 7 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
I dont want to knock good farming practises and advantages to climate from that but I am still skeptical about claims being made. Are you aware of these Powlson paper RedBaron?
and
"Limited potential of no-till agriculture for climate
change mitigation"Both suggest the advantages are being oversold. Perhaps we need some food labelling to indicate whether the farm source is managing to increase SOC?
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Digby Scorgie at 10:59 AM on 7 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
RedBaron @4
That's an interesting way of putting it. However, for someone like me who is ignorant of agricultural practices, it might be more enlightening to read a description of future practices as changed to be indefinitely sustainable and how these differ from current practices.
This reminds me of systems engineering. I worked with systems engineers for part of my career and I learnt a little about the discipline in the process. Regarding the above, two systems-engineering lessons seem to apply:
The first lesson is that one has to have a clear vision of what it is one is attempting to build, or in this case, establish — hence my first point above. As my erstwhile colleagues put it, "If you don't know where you're going, any road will get you there." So describe how the farmers of the future in the various branches of agriculture go about their business. How does this differ from today? One can't get from A to B if you don't know what B is.
The second lesson concerns technology. Whatever one sets out to build, one should only rely on currently available technology. To get from the A of current practice to the B of future practice, one cannot assume use of a technology that has not been shown to work. But I should imagine one would have to exclude any technology that relies on the burning of fossil fuel.
Perhaps what I ask has already been done. If so, I've not seen it in any of the generally available news sources. If not, well, that would be an interesting project for someone with the relevant expertise, would it not?!
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RedBaron at 06:04 AM on 7 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
I actually like the movie. However, as expected the "backlash" from getting agricultural science wrong is in fact happening as I predicted. It is much like the backlash on energy fueling denialism. (pardon the pun) So to try and counter in some small way this nuance, I compiled a mock interview will many of the agricultural "giants" that are influencing using regenerative agriculture as a biological carbon capture and sequestration (BCCS) mitigation strategy. Most these viewers are not farmers or scientists, and quoting scientific studies or facts seems to fall on deaf ears. But hopefully this may have an effect. It seems to have in at least some cases.
“As the small trickle of results grows into an avalanche — as is now happening overseas — it will soon be realized that the animal is our farming partner and no practice and no knowledge which ignores this fact will contribute anything to human welfare or indeed will have any chance either of usefulness or of survival.” Sir Albert Howard - father of organic agriculture
So yeah we need those animals on the farm.
But why are they a problem?
“The number one public enemy is the cow. But the number one tool that can save mankind is the cow. We need every cow we can get back out on the range. It is almost criminal to have them in feedlots which are inhumane, antisocial, and environmentally and economically unsound.” Allan Savory
So that is the problem? The feedlots and the vast acres of monoculture corn and soy supplying them. Why are those bad?
"We try to grow things that want to die, and kill things that want to live. That is pretty much how (industrial) agriculture functions." Colin Seis
Oh I get it, pesticides!
But I heard pesticides are safe, why would killing a few weeds and grasses and insects fungi etc. be a problem? Who cares about a few bugs, and worms?
“It may be doubted whether there are many other animals which have played so important a part in the history of the world, as have these lowly organized creatures.”
- Charles Darwin 1881What about weeds?
A flower is an educated weed. -Luther Burbank
OK I get it. We define whether something is a pest or not. In a different context a pest could be beneficial, as flowers are food for bees and pretty too. But wouldn't it be expensive? I like organic foods but the price at the market seems a bit higher.
"Ecosystem function is vastly more valuable than the production and consumption of goods and services." -John D. Liu
So would changing the way we do agriculture help?
“Yes, agriculture done improperly can definitely be a problem, but agriculture done in a proper way is an important solution to environmental issues including climate change, water issues, and biodiversity.”-Rattan Lal
Solution? That's pretty strong words. Even as big a problem as climate change? How can that be?
"The answer lies in the soil." - Fred Streeter
The soil? Really?
To forget how to dig the earth and to tend the soil is to forget ourselves. ~Mahatma Gandhi
Wait! That's philosophy! I mean in practical terms!
"The nation that destroys its soil destroys itself." - Franklin D. Roosevelt
What's so special about the soil besides the worms Darwin talked about?
“When you increase organic matter, good things happen.” -Jay Fuhrer
What good things?
"When farmers view soil health not as an abstract virtue, but as a real asset, it revolutionizes the way they farm and radically reduces their dependence on inputs to produce food and fiber." -USDA
OK, I think I am starting to see how these are connected. Less pesticide inputs and the important creatures survive and can do their job! What would that radical change look like? How is agriculture done differently? Is it just the cow? Or can this work for other animal species?
"The pigs do that work (by rooting in the forest and that creates the temporary disturbance on the ground that allows germination for higher successional species.) And so it allows for those pigs to be not just pork chops, bacon, and that. But now they then become co-conspirators and fellow laborers in this great land healing ministry ... by fully respecting the pigness of the pig." Joel Salatin
That's interesting, the pigness of the pig! So how would we figure out the pigness, cowness, chickeness, or even the tomatoness and wheatness or any other of our agricultural foods?
"Permaculture is a philosophy of working with, rather than against nature; of protracted & thoughtful observation rather than protracted & thoughtless labor; & of looking at plants & animals in all their functions, rather than treating any area as a single-product system." Bill Mollison
I think I get it now! It took the greatest minds in the history of sustainable agriculture. But now I understand what to look for when grocery shopping! Thanks so much everyone!
There is more carbon missing from the soil than extra in the atmosphere.
So forget about the guilt trip. If the meat and vegetables you eat are raised properly on land that is increasing in organic carbon, you'll actually be helping mitigate climate change with every bite!
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US Passenger Vehicle Emissions Comparable to 1980 Mt. St Helens Eruption Occurring Every 3 Days
Hi William, I like your suggestions and will look into drawing the 2nd. Your first suggestion my be covered already by one of our illustrations here:
Human vs natural CO2 emissions
The first diagram in this post is based on the graphic I've linked to.
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John Hartz at 03:35 AM on 7 November 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #45
Jonbo69:
Check out:
Trump just proposed ending all federal clean energy development
He’d end all research on solar, wind, efficiency, batteries, clean cars, and climate science, too.
by Joe Romm, Think Progress, Nov 4, 2016
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francis @ uea at 02:32 AM on 7 November 2016New research from last week 11/2012
The original article (not just the summary in Wollny) is at http://www.biodiversitylibrary.org/item/100637#page/367/mode/1up It's 17 pages long, by Andrée as mentioned earlier by Doc Snow at 03:48 AM on 23 March 2012, and in German.
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Jonbo69 at 02:30 AM on 7 November 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #45
If Trump wins the presidencey we know he's going to srew up the climate, but additionally I am also wondering what will happen to the funding of climate science and also the independence of the main scientific institutions and organisations seeing as they are all supposed to be involved in some socialist conspiricy to get people to pay more tax? Are we likely to see climate scientists face prosecution? Any guesses?
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