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Rob Honeycutt at 11:50 AM on 8 March 2023Methane emissions from Siberian sinkholes
Dennis... Reading the article you link to, I believe they're using the term "explosion" the same way you would say a balloon "explodes" if you blow too much air into it. There is no "source of ignition." The pressure is merely reaching a point to where the ground above the methane build up catastrophically fails to hold it in.
Note that the before and after photos shown at the end of the article don't indicate any fire or charring around the crater, suggesting there was no actual "ignition" event related to the formation of the crater.
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DennisHorne at 11:26 AM on 8 March 2023Methane emissions from Siberian sinkholes
@scaddenp
I'm asking a question. When the methane explodes, as it clearly can, what is the source of the ignition?
Moderator Response:[RH] It's appreciated when you utilize the link tool to activate your references.
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scaddenp at 09:07 AM on 8 March 2023Methane emissions from Siberian sinkholes
I cant see anything in these that suggest the methane is igniting (explosion != ignition). In fact several of your sources explicitly discuss the gas blowout mechanism which I believe is what causes these. It is just build up a huge pressure from methane release until ground-strength is exceeded.
Pretty much same mechanism that causes gingerbeer or sauerkraut explosions, especially in days before plastic bottles and screw-tops.
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DennisHorne at 08:11 AM on 8 March 2023Methane emissions from Siberian sinkholes
@scaddenp
https://uaf.edu/news/nova-episode-explores-arctic-methane-explosions.php
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20201130-climate-change-the-mystery-of-siberias-explosive-craters
Moderator Response:[BL] As noted by moderator RH in comment #5, please turn your text into proper links. The web software here does not automatically create links. You can do this when posting a comment by selecting the "insert" tab, selecting the text you want to use for the link, and clicking on the icon that looks like a chain link. Add the URL in the dialog box.
In addition, please note that the comments policy discourages link-only comments. Specifically:
No link or picture only. Any link or picture should be accompanied by text summarizing both the content of the link or picture, and showing how it is relevant to the topic of discussion. Failure to do both of these things will result in the comment being considered off topic.
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Rob Honeycutt at 07:54 AM on 8 March 2023Which state is winning at renewable energy production?
Peppers @5... Yes, there is a link there to the CA PUC but it's not clear how this supports anything you're saying.
Right now, any home owner in CA can order solar without actually even owning the solar panels. You can merely lease them and pay lower, fixed energy rates over the lifetime of the panels. No installation cost. Just lower bills. For non-home owners, in CA you can select the sources of your electricity on your energy bill.
I think you should consider taking a careful look at the graph I posted. If CA residents are using half the electricity per capita, even if paying higher rates than the rest of the nation, they end up (on average) paying less than people who live in low per-kwh rates.
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nigelj at 06:50 AM on 8 March 2023Which state is winning at renewable energy production?
Peppers appears to be saying solar panels are subsidised, but even with subsidies only high income people can afford solar panels, and the cost of the the subsidies falls on the avergage tax payer and this is unfair. The poor are allegedly subsididing the rich. I hear this same reasoning with electric car subsidies. I acknowledge what people are getting at and we have to be careful that the costs of the transition to renewables don't disproportionately fall on low income people .
But doesn't America have a progessive tax system, so the rich do ultimately contribute more to the subsidies for the solar panels than low income people? And the subsidies promote the deployment of solar panels, so their price eventually drops, making them more accessible to low income people. So there are some positives in the subsidy policy.
Other ways of speeding the uptake of solar panels are carbon taxes or cap and trade schemes, but these can potentially hurt low income people and have other downsides. There is no magic bullet, just a choice of the least worst option.
Whether subsides or carbon price schemes are best for promoting renewables is contested. Economists seem to prefer carbon price schemes over subsidies. However Norway has strong incentives to buy EV's and uptake has been very impressive.
Carbon pricing schemes are largely quite weak. The price has to be high to promote change but its politically difficult to have strong carbon pricing, strong carbon taxes, and the like. Quite a conundrum.
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scaddenp at 05:46 AM on 8 March 2023Methane emissions from Siberian sinkholes
Dennis, did I miss something? What makes you think that the methane ignited? I understand these to be pressure-blasts.
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Bob Loblaw at 23:35 PM on 7 March 2023Which state is winning at renewable energy production?
peppers @ 5:
No, I am not "talking about the speaker". I am talking about your lack of reponse to counter-arguments that have already been made, and suggesting your lack of response indicates a failure to engage in meaningful discussion. Also, your provision of arguments against things that people have not said - in other words, putting (inaccurately) words into people's mouths - also reflects poorly on your level of engagement. It is your actions that are in question, not you as an individual.
I suggest that you read the Comments Policy carefully. So far, I'm giving you mild suggestions on how you should approach discussions here. If I have to step in as moderator, I will also have to step out as a participant in the discussions. So far, you have not responded at all to my previous comments on regulation in the California electricity market, on that other thread. To make it easier for you to find those comments, here are links to them:
https://skepticalscience.com/take-advantage-clean-energy-tax-credits.html#140216
https://skepticalscience.com/take-advantage-clean-energy-tax-credits.html#140222
https://skepticalscience.com/take-advantage-clean-energy-tax-credits.html#140226
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DennisHorne at 20:45 PM on 7 March 2023Methane emissions from Siberian sinkholes
The methane explodes. What is the source of the ignition - lightning?
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peppers at 20:31 PM on 7 March 2023Which state is winning at renewable energy production?
Gentlemen,
Bob, your are talking about the speaker and not the topic. Chime in whenever.
Rob, the link to Ca. Gov statistics is provided up there, and is the basis of my comments. As the wealthy install solar panels with incentives and sell power back and reduce their bill to low or none even, they do not participate in the fees or absorbing Cares discounts, the addon's and subsidy participation costs which are routinely added on the the electric bills. The burden is now passed to the common payer as the payer pool shrinks, and Ca is scrambling to change regs to stem this inequity. As they raise recovery times against costs to put up solar from 3.5 to 10 years and consider charging these costs as an aside ( removing big incentives for buying solar ), it will be hitting the brakes on new purchases of panels as well. A yo yo outcome. I am not just speculating, I am responding to what I read from the ca.gov site there.
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commonsense21011 at 14:01 PM on 6 March 2023Filling an editorial policy hole
Please consider using columns or borders to create categories for content with different degrees of credibility.
For example, direct (or indirect but accurate) quotes from research reports or letters published in peer-reviewed journals might have green borders. Likewise, quotes from annual reviews or treatises whose editors' prior research reports have been published in more than one peer-reviewed journal might also have green borders.
Quotes from government agencies of stable democracies might have black borders.
Quotes from agencies of other governments or from journals, magazines and newspapers (or unpublished original research data and opinions from authors previously published in the same discipline) and research reports without peer review which the Skeptical Science moderator finds to be credible might have grey borders.
Unpublished observations of natural events and on-topic opinions from unknown commentators might have orange borders.
Typical non-authoritative but on-topic comment that is constructive in tone might have no border.
Material the moderator finds to be barely within the limits of what is fit to post might have a red border.
If creating these borders in the web site proves too difficult, different type styles, fonts and sizes might be used instead (with explanation).
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Rob Honeycutt at 10:16 AM on 6 March 2023Renewable energy is too expensive
Ah, that makes more sense, stranger1548. I was trying to reconcile the two and defaulted to the latter half as what you were claiming. There are a bunch of formatting functions in the text editing box that you can use to differentiate your words from others. I tend to utilize the...
Block quote and/or italics to doubly reinforce the separations between speakers/sources. And will also make sure to include an "[emphasis added]" if want to point out specific aspects of someone's written comments which they didn't include.
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stranger1548 at 07:53 AM on 6 March 2023Renewable energy is too expensive
Sorry for the confusion! I forgot put in the quote marks. The first paragraph is what I wrote. The rest was the skeptics claim.
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michael sweet at 06:40 AM on 6 March 2023Renewable energy is too expensive
Stranger1548,
As Rob Honeycutt says doing your own calcualtions is usually a waste of time.
This Carbon Brief article finds that comparing the most inefficient coal plants electricity to the most efficient ICE car on the road (Toyota Prius ECO) that the life time emissions of CO2 are about the same. With partial renewableenergy the electric car is better. Compared to less efficient cars the electric cars are much better. Once all electricity is renewable the electric cars will be much more efficient.
There must be a number of errors in your estimate. For one, you use the gasoline at the time it is burned while the electricity has to be transmitted and charged. The gasoline does not magically appear at the gas station, about 10% of the embodied energy is used for mining, refining and transporting it to the gas station.
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michael sweet at 06:01 AM on 6 March 2023The Problem with Percentages
A recent article in Carbon Brief says that:
"The Global Carbon Project points out that “the latest data confirm that the rate of increase in fossil CO2 emissions has slowed, from +3% per year during the 2000s to about +0.5% per year in the past decade”.
Newspaper reports suggest that the increase last year (2022) would have been about 3 times higher without new installations of renewable energy. That means that in 2022 2/3 of all CO2 increases were erased by new renewable energy insallations. The increase in CO2 over the past 5 years has dramatically decreased due to new renewable energy .
In order to resolve the AGW problem emissions of CO2 must dramatically drop. This has not yet started and all of us have to work hard to achieve this goal.
I remember 10 years ago when renewable energy was much more expensive than fossil energy and the situation looked compeltely hopeless. That is no longer the case. Renewable neergy is the cheapest energy and is being built out everywhere. Since it takes 5-10 years to plan and buid a fossil power plant there are still some plants being completed that were planned before renewable energy was cheapest.
Fossil interests have a lot of political power and are holding us back. In addition, it takes years to plan and build out the manufacturing plants for renewable energy. Everyone has to work to move renewable energy along.
The faster we convert to renewable energy the less damage we will have to deal with.
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Rob Honeycutt at 04:06 AM on 6 March 2023Renewable energy is too expensive
stranger1548 @28... More thorough peer reviewed work on this subject is available, so there's really no need to do this kind of back-of-the-napkin estimate. And when doing this kind of thin analysis it's certainly no justification for making definitive assertions such as your final sentence here.
Here's one study saying, yes, EV's are more efficient WTW (well to wheel) but not significantly. Although, they add, if you include electricity from renewable resources, which nearly all grids now increasingly include, EV's are up to 70% efficient.
https://sciendo.com/downloadpdf/journals/rtuect/24/1/article-p669.pdf
When I look at other WTW analyses, most aren't even comparing ICEV's to EV's. They're comparing HFCV's (hydrogen fuel cell) to BEV's. Internal combustion isn't even in the running.
https://enveurope.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/2190-4715-24-14
If you think the available research is getting the results in error, it is incumbent upon you to also publish your results in a reputable journal. That'll require a lot more napkins.
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EddieEvans at 00:31 AM on 6 March 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #9
Republican Leaders Want to Reinvent the Party’s Climate Image. The Far Right Won’t Let Them
It's 2023, fifty-seven years since President Johnson warned the world about Green House Gases, and still, the Republican Party deceives, denies, and delays. Let's see if the coming El Nino moves a few of the thirteenth-century minds sets in the right direction.
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stranger1548 at 00:06 AM on 6 March 2023Renewable energy is too expensive
This was a post that I just read last night. I told the poster I had read up on the gas turbines and there effiency. I asked if he couId produce a paper because I thought there were facts he had probably not included. I refered him the the Anderson Economic study where some cherry picking had been done. He said I was math deficient and that anyone with even moderate math skills should be able to come to the conclusion.
The most BTU efficient method of fossil fuel energy generation is, of course, the natural gas turbine. The very newest (built within the last few years) hybrid NG plants can reach up to 60% thermal efficiency, but most combined cycle plants fall around the 38-42% mark.
Taking that, we know that a gallon of gasoline contains 112,000 BTUs, and in a perfect world without losses, 112,000BTUs = 32.82kWh. We also know a Honda Accord can travel 38-highway miles on 112,000BTUs per the EPA's testing.
But if we burn 112,000BTUs at an NG plant at 40% efficiency, we only get 13.12kWh. Then there's line losses to consider, which per Schneider Electric, are at around 12% on average (How big are Power line losses? | Jacques Schonek). But then that brings us down to only 11.54kWh.
Oh but Tesla also stated that charging losses are around 16%, which puts us down to 9.69kWh.
However, a 82kWh Tesla Model 3 can travel 310 miles per the EPA (using the same testing method as the ICE vehicle), for roughly 3.7 miles per kWh (with no A/C, heat, or other auxiliaries). Meaning the Tesla can travel for 35.85 miles from the same amount (112,000BTUs) contained in a gallon of gasoline that was burned at a natural gas plant.
When measuring from the time the fuel is combusted, EVs are the same, or even less efficient.
Moderator Response:[BL] As noted further down in comment #31, stranger1548 failed to make it clear that only the first paragraph is his/her writing, and the rest is a quote from a "skeptic". All but the first paragraph has been modified to be indented, to help clarify this.
[No, you can't edit your own comments.]
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PollutionMonster at 17:10 PM on 1 March 2023CO2 limits will hurt the poor
I agree about the mode two. I am guilty of not being able to change my mind in the heat of battle. Even 48 hours cooldown can help a lot.
I am having trouble in online debate with that I go out of my way to be respectful and the other person does the opposite. Oddly, I've found I can learn from a denier. Sounds silly, but I get my facts mixed up and sometimes just having someone, anyone to talk to even a troll can help. That forming an argument helps me synthesize and process data into information, as opposed to just passive reading or watching videos.
As for values, I think some may be genetic. Others is circumstances. For example, I have lived around lower class my entire life. Sometimes below the poverty line, other times barely middle class. Therefore, the economics of climate change interest me more.
If someone was to say sea level to rise 1 meter over the next century that isn't going to affect me much. While I do care about other people, if I am locked into short term thinking, how do I pay to get gas and my car fixed so I don't lose my job? The long term effects of climate change are lost on me.
In brief, I care most about how climate change affects me in the past and present, then how it effects me in the future. So part of the reason I struggle so much is that there is 20% more heavy rain in my area. The last thing my location needs is more rain.
Another example of values, is people might value the free market economy based upon how they were taught and life experiences. A student exposed to the dangers of monopolies will have less value in a free market than those exposed to the horrors of Communism versus a control group.
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scaddenp at 08:37 AM on 1 March 2023CO2 limits will hurt the poor
Nope, never heard of him. But I would iterate that most people do not change their minds, especially if position tied to values. Unless you have ongoing discussion with mutual respect, then I think you are wasting your time. However, on public forums, there is a bystander audience and reasonable to assume that they will not all be vested. Pushing the facts won't convince a denier, but challenging misinformation can help prevent it spreading.
Email for discussion with friends has plus and minuses. The plus is time to think about what and how you say things. Everything else is minus. Remember that changing a friends mind is not as important as maintaining friendship. Also that in active discussions, mode-2 responses are what you will both be using and no one is likely to back down in the heat of battle. Some days or weeks or months later however, the nagging doubts might prompt a re-examination of beliefs. That is why ongoing respectful contact is important.
Oh never even try to change a persons value system. Some evidence I think that it is baked in at genetic level.
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PollutionMonster at 07:40 AM on 1 March 2023CO2 limits will hurt the poor
scaddenp @80
Thank you for the informative post. This sounds a lot like street epistmology. Have you ever heard of Anthony Magnabosco? I've tried your techinque with friends over email didn't work too well. Either feast or famine. Would go silent or flood me with way too much words.
I tried with some deniers and some replied to my questions "if your too stupid to figure it out yourself I am not gonna tell you." I did seem to have success with strangers that believed in Qanon using street epistmology.
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Rob Honeycutt at 02:32 AM on 1 March 2023Which state is winning at renewable energy production?
Peppers @2... You're making an assertion that systems "have crushed the common citizen" but you're not providing any analysis that supports that claim. I'm a "common citizen" in CA and I'm not feeling particularly crushed by energy rates. My own sense of your assertion is that it's a conclusion you're seeking and are merely looking for reasons to justify it.
In fact, as far as I can see, CA is doing a very good job at managing energy usage.
Note that CA's population grew during this entire period, save the past couple of years when the population has slightly declined.
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Bob Loblaw at 01:52 AM on 1 March 2023Which state is winning at renewable energy production?
Peppers:
Deregulation of California's electricity market was previously discussed on this thread.
Nowhere in that thread does anyone claim that "all the electric cost issues in Ca. were from public utility deregulation and not mismanagement.", as you are claiming here.
In your last comment on that thread, you stated "Ill have to study up on the deregulation someone, maybe you, mentioned that before. Apparently it is a factor Im not familiar with."
You are doing your credibility a serious blow by creating strawman arguments that others claim that deregulation is the only factor involved. You have not responded to any of the comments on that other thread that discuss the deregulation problem.
Based on your current comment, you are still "not familiar with" the deregulation issue.
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peppers at 20:01 PM on 28 February 2023Which state is winning at renewable energy production?
IN California, one problem is the badly managed arrangement for solar generation on rooftops. The planners were so rushed to get solar accepted with incentives and subsidies, they have crushed the common citizen.
Below is from Ca.gov. NEM is net energy meter, or power obtained from (primarily) rooftop systems and sold back to the grid. Ca did succeed in getting many systems built, and they incentivized rebates and high 'sell' to the grid rates so buyers were reinbursed within 3-5.5 years. Now all the wealthy ( able to afford ) homeowners who did that are set up, have the systems and the common citizen is paying through the nose subsidizing the whole mess.
Of course the solution to this has to be, more regulations. Now they are going to remove incentives, engineer a 10 year recovery period for the incentives and the buying of solar will change ( plummet?) as they try and make it more fair.
I am mostly entering these comments because I cannot find the gentleman here I discussed this with several weeks ago, who said all the electric cost issues in Ca. were from public utility deregulation and not mismanagement.
No, its mismanagement, and the common citizen is paying for wealthier households to have gotten the NEM free passes. Now, as they reduce the benefits after all these systems have been put in, they will succeed in angering everybody.
This will diminish the goal. Alternative sources are good, but running with scissors in hand and eyes closed at the words solar and wind is disserving the most vunerable of citizens, and saying they need to suck it up for the cause doesnt cut it.
"All ratepayers pay as much as 10 times more for exported NEM energy than for other sources of renewable energy.[3] Californians today spend more than $3 billion a year to support NEM programs.
An independent third-party evaluation of NEM 2.0 found that its costs substantially exceed its benefits as residential NEM 2.0 participants only pay 9 to 18 percent of what it costs their utilities to serve them, even considering the value of the energy produced by their NEM systems.
Under NEM 2.0, the typical solar customer pays for the solar energy system through energy bill savings in 3-5.5 years depending on utility[4], and then receives substantial bill savings for the remainder of the current 20-year tariff.
Ratepayers without NEM systems, who are disproportionately low-income, pay significantly higher electricity rates due to NEM."Moderator Response:[BL] Link activated.
The web software here does not automatically create links. You can do this when posting a comment by selecting the "insert" tab, selecting the text you want to use for the link, and clicking on the icon that looks like a chain link. Add the URL in the dialog box. -
scaddenp at 18:33 PM on 28 February 2023CO2 limits will hurt the poor
Well Skepsci- this site - puts its mission statement at the top "Explaining climate change science & rebutting global warming misinformation".
But in terms of discussion, I dont think we would have changed the mind of a single hardened denier. It more about provide protection from misinformation and informing those who haven't taken a ideological position. I think bystanders quickly see who has the facts in discussions here.
In relationships, when someone comes up with a statement about something that you are pretty sure is wrong, then the appropriate response is "That's interesting, why do you believe that?". Ie what has informed your prior. And a zillion non-confrontational followup questions to understand it. If it is a value-based belief, then directly going to countering facts is probably going to antagonize. You have to think first about what line of retreat they might have that doesnt run counter to their values. And that needs a lot of active listening from you to understand where they are coming from first. I think you can see why that doesnt really work in blog conversations and why relationship is important.
Of course, all of us have false beliefs I think. When challenged yourself about something, taking a moment to think about your own lines of retreat can help in not falling into Mode-2 thinking.
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PollutionMonster at 17:53 PM on 28 February 2023Tips on countering conspiracy theories and misinformation
I am getting a warning message when I click on the top tips link.
"Warning: Potential Security Risk Ahead
Firefox detected an issue and did not continue to www.shapingtomorrowsworld.org. The website is either misconfigured or your computer clock is set to the wrong time."
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PollutionMonster at 14:54 PM on 28 February 2023CO2 limits will hurt the poor
scaddenp @78.
First, I want to say I agree with everything you said, except I am not sure what Skepsci is. As for relationships I am highly socially isolated, introverted, or socially akward. I am not sure which, because I desire more close friends and family, but I always seem so overwhelmed all the time I can't seem to make any time for them.
The few friends I have I am afraid to talk to them about these issues because I might chase them away.
I am fairly strong in critical thinking, logic and science, I would say at least above average. Though weak in relationships.
I'll give an example, during the heigth of the pandemic I went online way more and make some sort of online friends. Only to lose them when I accidentally said something mildly racist, despite profusely apologizing. Many of my online friends turned enemy and or blocked me. For someone as socially akward as me this is a nightmare, I don't normally let people in.
This has left me sore and relucentant to form new relationships. The messed up part is I am still unsure who was correct. Afterall many liberals are against poltical correctness and are tolerant of the occasional accidentally mildly racist comment. Furthermore, I see obvertly racist comments on other websites all the time, much worse than anything I said. I mean if I was 100% sure I did something wrong, I could learn from my mistakes, but what I am supposed to learn from that experience?
There is an Atlanic Article The Atlantic Babel that talks about the fragmation of America and the Internet. Seems every website has its own hidden rules and taboos that a person doesn't know about until they break one. On one website it is normal to debate religion, on another it is taboo.
So, the entire part about a long term relationship seems really difficult for me. Yet, I also agree entirely that is easier to get through to people you have a long term relationship. Finding common ground seems more and more difficult. To give another example, I was part of the new atheist movement and most of us viewed ourselves as liberal. Now my friends are Christian, Wiccan, Buddist. Despite, all being raised as Christians.
I heard person A were blocking person B because person B was a libertarian. Everything seems so fragmented into various micro-tribes and cultures. Much more than just simply polarization.
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David-acct at 12:53 PM on 28 February 2023Which state is winning at renewable energy production?
While it is impressive that several states are generating large % of electric generation from renewables, we need to maintain a realistic appreciation of the limitations and realistic appreciation of real world data.
North Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota among other states are part of Midcontinent Independent System Operator, Inc (MISO grid).
The US Energy Information association provides a wealth of real time information. Below is a link to the Electric generation by source EIA.gov. The real time data shows the following when electric generation from renewables dropped below 30% of average electric generation (approx 10% of name plate capacity). Note the frequency of 72+ hours of significantly reduced electric generation.
december 6 2022 , 1am through 12/11/2022, 5pm approx 5 days less than 30%
Dec 18, 2022 11am though Dec 21 8pm - approx 3 days less than 30%
Jan 5, 2023 9pm through Jan 8th 2023 9pm - approx 3 days less than 30%
jan 20, 2023 10Am though jan 23 2am approx 3 days less than 10%
Nov 12, 2022 through Nov 15, 2022 approx 3 days, less than 30%
9 day span in June 2022 with less than 40%
14 day span in august 2022 with less than 30%
40 day span in July August 2021 with less than 30%
Moderator Response:[PS]Replaced bad link with proper one.
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scaddenp at 07:35 AM on 28 February 2023CO2 limits will hurt the poor
PollutionMonster, I think that people looking at an unknown reality have two modes of thought:
1/ Think like a scientist - "I wonder what the answer is".
2/ Think like a lawyer - "Defend my preferred position and convince the jury".
I rather think that our evolution as social animals has made mode-2 our normal default. Furthermore, even when in mode-1, we slide into mode-2 as soon as we latch onto a promising hypothesis. The process of scientific discovery with its protocols and peer-review are an imperfect way to try and counteract this. All of us are running on flawed hardware.
You are arguing with people in mode-2 and they perceive your responses as mode-2 type arguments even when they are not. I doubt you will make any impression at all. When someone is vested in a position, particularly one that is motivated by their values, then they will not give ground easily. At best, you might convince unvested bystanders and unless there are in fact bystanders then arguing is pointless. Pretty much what Skepsci does.
If you are arguing with someone with whom you have a long term relationship, then you have hope, and it depends on shifting thinking modes. You need to begin with discussing how you come by your beliefs and how you use evidence to change them. Warning - most people are not in the habit of changing their beliefs.
So beliefs - these are our mental map of what reality is like. I think you can convince most people the Litany of Tarsky is desirable.ie If X is true, then I desire to believe that X is true. If X is not true, then I desire to believe that X is not true
In reality many will find that a challenge too when it comes close to the bone.
The tricky bit is how to form accurate beliefs. Ideally we do this with Bayesian reasoning but a necessary first step is to start thinking about beliefs in terms of probability. Eg I am 99% sure that the globe is warming. Can never be 1 or 0. Then it comes down to doing thinking about rules of evidence – what observations are predicted by one hypothesis but are not consistent with alternative hypotheses. This kind of thinking takes practise and someone interested in improving their mapping of reality needs to start on things they are not vested in (eg prediction markets) before tackling it on difficult beliefs that strongly attached to values. Hence the need for a long term relationship. Good luck.
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Evan at 06:37 AM on 28 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
Bob@15, I've been found out. :-)
You are correct that I am simply trying to get people to appreciate the unbelievably delicate balance that defines many of our natural systems.
That planets 100's of millions of miles away can cause sea-level change (by whatever mechanism) on the order of 120m (400') is astounding!
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Bob Loblaw at 05:27 AM on 28 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
ubrew12 @12:
I don't think Evan was trying to fool anyone, but he was trying to make people think. Seeing his original comment @3, and the responses @4 and 5, the path my brain went into was:
- 100,000 years sounds an awful lot like glacial cycles.
- 120m sounds an awful lot like sea level changes between glacials and interglacials.
- Effects of Saturn and Jupiter sound an awful lot like the kinds of gravitational forces that cause wobbles and slight shifts in earth's orbital patterns...
- ...which leads to Milankovitch theory.
Rather than jumping into a mode of "this seems absurd..", I went into a mode of "maybe Evan is thinking about something other than the obvious..."
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nigelj at 17:12 PM on 27 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
Jon Hartz @2.
Agreed.
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Eclectic at 16:58 PM on 27 February 2023CO2 limits will hurt the poor
PollutionMonster , much of what you wish to learn can be found here on the SkS website ~ you can educate yourself by reading various of the Climate Myths (see top of page). In addition, you can use the Search box (top of page).
In addition, you can use your knowledge of basic geography, and your common sense will tell you what happens as sea-level rises (including salination of low-lying land by storm surges). And as the tropics get hotter (even 1 degreeC average rise does produce bursts of even hotter weather, to the severe detriment of crops / animals / humans).
The lands in Northern Canada & Siberia will (eventually) benefit from warming. But much of that area has poor quality soil . . . and there is the whole cost of establishing new infrastructure, and a host of other problems. Much cheaper to halt the rises in CO2.
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PollutionMonster at 16:10 PM on 27 February 2023CO2 limits will hurt the poor
"The main point is that the land loss will include a great amount of fertile farming land, including the particularly productive river delta regions."
"And gradual worsening & lengthening of heat waves in India and the Middle East and Central Africa." Eclectic
Do you have a source for that? I wish to improve my arguments and I don't think linking to say BBC is the best choice. The part about losing fertile soil worries me because people still die of starvation in the world.
Mostly the deniers use the myth of climate change is overblown and climate change solutions are super expensive. Which to be fair, I was reading that some solutions are infeasible Weekly Roundup.
The denizens are mostly atheists, so that is some common ground we have that lets me tailor the message. I could also use some advice for keeping it all organized. I hate it when I loose track of a really good source or argument.
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Eclectic at 15:15 PM on 27 February 2023CO2 limits will hurt the poor
Good luck with that, PollutionMonster, if you wish to be a David fighting a Goliath of website denizens there. The Daily Mail , eh [insert supercilious emoji here] . Endless hours of free entertainment for you, in battling a bunch of bigots. Though I hope you won't cross swords with them more than a few times per week (you do not wish to justify any label of troll . . . even where they deserve being trolled). And after all, you have a life to live in less toxic circumstances ~ and you may be able to do more good elsewhere.
"CO2 limits will hurt the poor" is just one of the grossly hypocritical excuses put forward by climate deniers. What is behind all these Denier arguments? Near as I can tell, the underlying personality flaws boil down to Selfishness 75% plus Anger 25% . . . or maybe closer to 50 / 50 .
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Evan at 14:20 PM on 27 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
ubrew12@12, glad we cleared that up. I simply like to remind people how delicately balanced Earth's systems are. The current effect of the Milankovitch cycles on our planetary systems fascinate me.
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PollutionMonster at 14:09 PM on 27 February 2023CO2 limits will hurt the poor
Eclectic @73
Thanks that helps a lot. I sometimes have doubts when a lot of deniers yell at me at the same time. I think its best for me to pick my battles and choose a different community to talk to.
I am finding very very little common ground. They refuse to use sources, which makes it difficult to understand where they are coming from. Of course there is endless accusations of me being a idelogue.
Other uninvited deniers join in and call me a troll for using sources and accuse me of gish gallop when I link to skepticalscience. Of the group their two favorite sources tend to be Daily Telegraph and dailymail. Though the group consensus is generally sources are bad.
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ubrew12 at 14:02 PM on 27 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
Evan@7 said "I am simply framing the effects of the Milankovitch cycles in a way that people may not normally think of them." Yes, you certainly fooled me. It makes sense that they would be a 'forcer' for those cycles, but I thought you were refering to some kind of direct gravitational effect.
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:03 PM on 27 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
Evan,
Humans certainly would have difficulty being reasonably certain of the results of the collective accumulating impacts of their actions. A January 13, 2016 Carbon Brief article "Human emissions will delay next ice age by 50,000 years, study says" covered a study published in Nature. It explains how climate impacts have significantly delayed the onset of the next ice age. A key point is not 'the positive' of delaying the ice age. The key point is that the climate impacts will last 10s of thousands of years unless some generations of humans 'unprofitably' drawdown CO2.
Even if CO2 is drawndown there will be many harmful results of the short term excessive CO2 levels that are irreversible. And many of those permanent harms will be surprises because humans don't really understand the complexity of life on this amazing planet.
Humans have proven they can have massive impacts. And have proven to resist learning about how harmful their developed beliefs and actions actually are.
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Evan at 11:14 AM on 27 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
scaddenp@9, good points. Isn't it remarkable that the Earth ever so slowly changed over millions of years until we arrived at this delicate position where ice-age cycles took us up and down, cycling between 180m and 60m equivalent sea level rise worth of ice on land. The incredible sensitivity of Earth to the tugs and pulls of Jupiter and Saturn are a true indication of the delicate balance that Earth has functioned in for so long.
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scaddenp at 10:58 AM on 27 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
The milkankovich cycles are only able to force ice ages (and sea level) when GHGs levels are so low that summer insolation at high latitudes doesnt not melt snow. (The milankovich cycles operated long before the Pleistocene ice ages). The simple geoengineering to prevent an ice age is to increase GHG to such a level (around 400ppm) that they dont have an effect. Whoops! we have just done that.
We definitely agree with Wally Broecker that climate is an angry beast and that we shouldnt be poking it with a stick.
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Bob Loblaw at 10:36 AM on 27 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
Indeed, Evan. That's what I figured. A subtlety in mentioning, without naming, the gravitational effects that might see minor - and are, in a direct sense, based on ubrew12's numbers.
But those minor direct effects lead to indirect effects, with a well-known and plausible physical mechanism, that make for major shifts in climate.
A delicate balance for sure. People argue that we don't know enough about climate to be confident that CO2 is having a warming effect - all those pesky unknown unknowns - but we know enough to be confident that geoengineering will be entirely predictable and problem free? Surely a place to be skeptical.
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Evan at 06:35 AM on 27 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
Bob@6, correct. These are not tidal forces due to Jupiter and Saturn, but rather complex feedback processes triggered by varying orbital cycles due to the tug and pull of Jupiter and Saturn on the Earth, ala the Milankovitch cycles.
I did not give a reference because I am simply framing the effects of the Milankovitch cycles in a way that people may not normally think of them.
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Eclectic at 06:22 AM on 27 February 2023CO2 limits will hurt the poor
PollutionMonster @72 ,
Regarding Kulp & Strauss (2019) the figure "per satellite measurement" indicated that 230 million people would need to move, i.e. would lose their land, as the sea level rose 1 meter. Yes, that might well take around 100 years (and the figure might well have grown to more than 230 million by then). The main point is that the land loss will include a great amount of fertile farming land, including the particularly productive river delta regions. But I am sure your Denier friend has no concern about loss of food production in a world of increasing population. Nor will he admit to concern about impoverished refugees coming to a location near him ~ or concern about their wellbeing.
Yes, in the big picture, it all happens slowly. I must admit to a certain liking for your Denier friend. He seems a man without compassion. The world needs more of that sort of person !
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Bob Loblaw at 05:35 AM on 27 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
ubrew12, Phillippe:
At a guess, I expect that Evan may be claiming that the variations in the Milankovitch cycles are due to the gravitational effects of Saturn and Jupiter, such that we have glacial/intergalcial periods at 100,000-year intervals. And that causes sea level changes of 120m.
Just a hunch. Evan can confirm.
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PollutionMonster at 05:07 AM on 27 February 2023CO2 limits will hurt the poor
Eclectic @70
I read your entire post, thank you for the response. :) I feel like I can have a conversation with you on how to best prebunk and debunk climate change deniers. One problem I have is that some websites are so full of snark and dog piling that I am afraid to have a conversation with other climate change activists. That people are trying to look cool and who can get the best insult off, rather than attempt to become better prebunkers.
According to Greta Thunberg politics have become very very toxic.
One dilemma I have with such a strategy is the person practicing denial lures me into the <i>"snake pit."</i> For example if I say the ocean is acidifying, they insist the statement is vague and therefore useless, demanding I say exactly how fast, how much, and what damage. Ditto, with iceberg shrinking, sea level rise, and refugees.
Next, if I commit to exact numbers, we enter the snake pit. The cranky uncle comes up with different numbers and shows the flaws of my numbers they call me a compulsive liar and are usually able to swing the audience. I'm suprised how often the onlookers side with denial.
I am not the most scientifically literate, nor the most intelligent. I often have to admit humility that the denier is simply smarter and more knowledgeable. That they can pull the conversation to the battleground they are most effective at.
For example when I linked to the Kulp Strauss 2019 article they just dismissed as irrelevant that the sea levels will rise slowly and people will migrate as they always do. Thank you again for the informative civil conversation. :)
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:43 AM on 27 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
Evan at 3: Do you have a source, link, published paper for this very bold assertion?
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ubrew12 at 04:34 AM on 27 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
Re Evans@3. The gravitational pull of all solar system objects, on Earths surface, relative to the moon is: Moon 1, Sun 0.4, Venus 6E-5, Jupiter 3E-6, Mercury 4E-7, Saturn 2E-7, Mars 5E-8, Uranus 3E-9, and Neptune 8E-10.
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Evan at 23:38 PM on 26 February 20232023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
Saturn and Jupiter do a dance with the Earth which, over the course of 100,000 years, causes sea level to rise and fall by 120m (400 ft). This demonstrates how delicately balanced our planetary systems are.
Do humans have any chance of artificially controlling such a delicately-balanced system (i.e., through geo-engineering), short of ceasing to poke a prod the system the way we do?
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Eclectic at 22:45 PM on 26 February 2023CO2 limits will hurt the poor
PollutionMonster @70 ,
Please do not go down into the "snake pit". There is no point arguing in areas where you are not clearly the victor. Whether it is 5 million per year dying of heatwaves versus 2 million dying of cold ~ or vice versa . . . really does not matter, because Deniers will dispute you with all sorts of rubbery figures (faux or real) and their own rubbery definitions of what's what. You cannot clearly win, in the eyes of onlookers (and they will see you as argumentative & unconvincing . . . and losing credibility).
The people who spout "freedom / totalitarian control" and suchlike ~ they are a lost cause. They cannot (and do not wish to) think logically. They are into Conspiracies ~ the Mr Soros; the Rothschilds (and their space lasers) ; other Billionaire Communists; the Deep State; the "Q" ; the Lizard people ; etcetera.
Keep it simple. Point to AGW leading to ice-melting and sea-level rise with consequent migrations of millions of refugees. And gradual worsening & lengthening of heat waves in India and the Middle East and Central Africa. More refugees, more poverty, and still more refugees.
Then the real question for discussion becomes : what should we actually do to reduce & prevent those future problems? Sit on our hands for the next 20 years? Or advance gradually (or quickly) toward nett zero carbon emissions (maybe by 2050 or 2060 or 2070?). Argue for the big picture, not the small stuff.
It is the same with friends who are "un-engaged" ~ just make an occasional brief reference to what we actually need to do. (You don't want them to think of you as That Guy who is a boring one-trick pony.)
