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william11409 at 21:41 PM on 11 January 2015Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
My sincere apologies. I had absolutely no thought at all of taunting a moderator my comment was sincere in that I did think the view I put forward might not be published due to its somehat controversial context.
Moderator Response:[Dikran Marsupial] The comments policy only requires that the comment is on-topic, it doesn't specify that comments should agree with the article. As long as you adhere to the comments policy, posts won't be moderated.
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william11409 at 21:09 PM on 11 January 2015Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
At the very real risk I run of being moderated to oblivion, Professor Mann conveniently, if understandably, totally ignores the the actions of the anthropogenic global warming proponents. Does Professor Mann consider it acceptable for the UK Greens to call for the sacking of "any cabinet Ministers or senior governmental advisors who refuse to accept the scientific consensus on climate change or who won’t take the risks to the UK seriously"? Does he consider Owen Paterson, the UK Environmental Secretary, should have been sacked from his position as he was less than totally supportive of AGW? Should Professor Nicholas Draper have been fired from Oregon State University becasue he gives anti-climate change lectures? Surely a University with any credibility should welcome the airing of differing views. Should Professor BobCarter have had his position of Adjunct Professor at Macquarie University terminated, arguably because of his "Climate denier" views? The role of human activity in causing Climate Change is a politically hot topic that has resulted in acres of the printed word and galaxies of electrons poured into emails and the internet in the on-going debate, a debate clearly not yet conclusively settled in the minds of many lay people.
Moderator Response:[Dikran Marsupial] Taunting moderators is really rather childish behaviour and detracts from the point you are making. Moderating posts is a pretty tiresome activity, so please don't make it any more tiresome than it really needs to be. Please also read the comments policy.
[JH] Excessive white space deleted.
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BaerbelW at 19:05 PM on 11 January 2015Ice age predicted in the 70s
Peter Gwynne, the author of the referenced Newsweek article from 1975, recently published the article "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong" which is well worth a read.
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Tom Curtis at 18:14 PM on 11 January 2015Sea level rise is exaggerated
whsmith @213, the IPCC stated:
"It is likely that the rate of global mean sea level rise has continued to increase since the early 20th century, with estimates that range from 0.000 [–0.002 to 0.002] mm yr–2 to 0.013 [0.007 to 0.019] mm yr–2. It is very likely that the global mean rate was 1.7 [1.5 to 1.9] mm yr–1 between 1901 and 2010 for a total sea level rise of 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m."
I'll take the high end of that likely range, so 1.9 mm per year, or 95 mm over the 50 years from 1944 to 2014. So, you are claiming, by showing those photos that you can detect a difference of just under 4 inches in sea level between the Normandy landing photos, and the present day photos and conclude that it is not their. You can do this, moreover, without knowing the relative state of the tide, and despite obvious changes in the water front structures (in the first photo).
It is amazing the perceptive powers ideology grants ... (ROFLAO)
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whsmith at 17:35 PM on 11 January 2015Sea level rise is exaggerated
If you would like a pictorial measure of sea level change, there are some great interactive photos taken in England and of the Normandy landings 70 years ago, and again last summer. Little has changed. http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/ng-interactive/2014/jun/01/d-day-landings-scenes-in-1944-and-now-interactive
There are other phots, not interactive, which show the same thing.
Of course, these photos were simply before and after photos, with NO agenda.
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - You can't expect to be taken seriously unless you provide some background context for the photos. All readers here will be familiar with high and low tide.
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dvaytw at 13:28 PM on 11 January 2015Why is the IPCC AR5 so much more confident in human-caused global warming?
CBD, will read through those links. Much appreciated.
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dvaytw at 13:27 PM on 11 January 2015Why is the IPCC AR5 so much more confident in human-caused global warming?
Thank you, Tom. So is figure 10.5 above the closest thing one finds in the IPCC report to the beautiful charts SkS has quantifying the human contribution to global warming?
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One Planet Only Forever at 11:54 AM on 11 January 2015Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
denisaf,
I am not sure it was your intent, but your message appears to indicate that the reduction of CO2 can be gradual, to suit the pace that interests those among the current generations who want to amximize the benefit they can get from creating a bigger problem.
The human impacts should have been limited to 1.5 C, but the lack of action by previous generations doing what they were 'willing to do' has now made 2.0 C the expected lowest achievable impact. And further lack of interest in dramatically reducing impacts will make that impact limit impossible to achieve.
Also, there is much more impact than rising sea levels or ocean acidity changes. There is the difficulty of predicting and adapting agriculture to rapidly changing difficult to predict climate changes. And there are many other difficulties that will only be discovered when they occur. This rapid change of the planet's environment is uncharted territory. A lot has been learned and the concern is valid and significant, but far more is still needing to be understood. Anyone claiming that the future impacts to be planned for are certain is as foolish as those who say there is not enough proof that there is any reason for concern.
So facing the facts of the need to limit what is done and limit it to the lowest possible impact is now critical. The actions of our predecessors have eliminated the option of going for a target but knowing it was a 'nice to have' target that it is totally OK to exceed. And overcoming the delaying tactics of those with 'the largest amount of potential undeserved benefit to lose' is also critical. Many of those people knew exactly what was going on and have gambled big on getting away with more unacceptable behaviour.
This truly is a matter of the future of humanity. And it is made worse by people who do not care about anything beyond their personal interest, especially those who have gotten away with becoming wealthy and powerful. And the current socio-economic-political sysetm encourages many people to adopt that attitude and allows them to become wealthy, because having that attitude is a competitive advantage for those who get away with it.
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Doug Mackie at 10:53 AM on 11 January 2015Not pHraud but pHoolishness
All right already. I'll work on an update.The impact of OA is the change is SW chemistry (specifically the decrease in CO3=). Calcification itself varies for different organisms and is not well studied (compared to say bird egg formation). e.g. consider the case where instead of directly using CO3= a calcifier takes HCO3- from SW or body fluids and then converts to CO3= before forming CaCO3. In such a case the OA caused decrease in SW [CO3=] might appear less important, excpet that actually the decrease in SW [CO3=] increases the dissolution of CaCO3 regardless of how calcification occurs(see posts about common ion and omega). More in update.
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - Cheers Doug, that would be rather splendid. And yes, you (and Stephen) make a good point that either manner of calcification is impeded by the decline in carbonate ion abundance. Still, it gives me a opportunity to write about coral calcification & OA.
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denisaf at 10:02 AM on 11 January 2015Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
Mann says "We must be honest as we convey the threat posed by climate change to the public. But we must also be effective. The stakes are simply too great for us to fail to communicate the risks of inaction." This carries the implication that action initiated by humans can control climate change. This is not so. The best that can be done is adopt measures that will gradually reduce greenhouse gas emissions, so slow down the rate of global warming. These mitigation measures should be coupled with major measures to adapt to the irreversible unintended consequences of past usage of fossil fuels. The major challenges of preparing for the impact on cities for sea level rise and society for the impact on seafood availability due to ocean acidification need to be addressed.
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:33 AM on 11 January 2015Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
Peter Lloyd,
My observations of the 'public discussion' related to this issue indicates there needs to be far more convincing presentations of the best understanding of what is going on. Too much money and communication power is in the hands of those who do not want this subject to be better understood. The proposal would make it more difficult for that group to claim their side has substantial factual justification for their claims. Something needs to change. Scientists speaking out more publicly and assertively sounds like it would help.
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PhilippeChantreau at 07:38 AM on 11 January 2015Economics supports immediate action on global warming
Sometimes artists say it best, without words,
(sorry, that may have to be reformatted)
Moderator Response:[JH] Link activated.
[RH] Link shortened.
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Stephen Baines at 05:19 AM on 11 January 2015Not pHraud but pHoolishness
Technically, in my # three above I should say...
3. Production of calcium carbonate has the net effect of producing CO2 and reducing alkalinity.
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jenna at 03:44 AM on 11 January 2015Economics supports immediate action on global warming
Somewhat related, The Carbon Brief (blog) has an article on the implications of falling oil and gas prices and how that may affect investment in renewables;
Jen.
Moderator Response:[JH] Link activated.
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Peter Lloyd at 03:05 AM on 11 January 2015Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
It is incredibly risky to mix up science and advocacy on the same topic because of the temptation to see certainty where there is none, let alone the obvious conflict of interest.
"If scientists choose not to engage on matters of policy-relevant science, then we leave a void that will be filled by industry-funded disinformation"
That statement in the article by Stephen Schneider which implies that no one who might opposes a view or policy position will be doing it in a reasonable and unbiased way shows the risk of such distortion perfectly.
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One Planet Only Forever at 00:42 AM on 11 January 2015Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
Regarding my suggestion that Senator Inhofe should be mentioned in every clarfication regarding the impacts of CO2 from burning buried hydrocarbons, there is an article at Time (here) providing some Inane Inhofe claims.
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billthefrog at 22:19 PM on 10 January 2015Not pHraud but pHoolishness
Stephen @ 34
Thanks for this. Your closing bservation... "If both the weathering and production of calcium carbonate consumed CO2 you'd have a real problem balancing the equations!" is certainly intriguing. Sounds a bit like a one-way ticket back to the Cryogenic.
On the other hand, if it was sufficiently exothermic.....
Bill F ;)
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One Planet Only Forever at 16:00 PM on 10 January 2015Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
KR,
The Republicans may have made a perfect target for what you suggest.
They named Senator Inhofe as their most knowledgable and informed member regarding the Environment.
Approprieate Inhofe quotes, and he has made a few really absurd ones, could be the introduction to every clarification of a denier claim.
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Stephen Baines at 09:14 AM on 10 January 2015Not pHraud but pHoolishness
Bill @ 33
The problem is that you have a lot of linked reactions, involving different reactants, and phase changes. I had to solve these when studying water chemistry back in the dark ages, but it's been a long time and it's really hard to describe simply how these interact. But for my students I try to focus on four things.
1. Adding CO2 reduces the amount of carbonate in the ocean. This is because the acidity, which is produced when carbonic acid dissociates to form bicarbonate at pH 8 (AO is not OK #8), then combines with preexisting carbonate ions to form more bicarbonate (AO is not OK #7).
2. Decreasing carbonate concentrations make calcium carbonate formation more difficult. This is because calcium carbonate formation is favored when the product of carbonate and calcium ion concentrations is higher (AO not OK #15). Calcifying organisms have a harder time manipulating these concentrations to promote calcification when the background concentrations of these two ions are low.
3. Production of calcium carbonate has the net effect of producing CO2 and increasing acidity (AO is not OK #1). Production of a mole of calcium carbonate by definition removes a mole of bivalent calcium ions from seawater. Change balance must be maintained in seawater to counter this loss. Because univalent bicarbonate ions predominate at pH~8 (AO is not OK #8), approximately two moles of univalent bicarbonate anions must therefore be lost from seawater with each mole of calcium lost. One mole carbon goes to form the 1 mole of calcium carbonate. The other forms H2CO3 that readily dissociates to H2O and CO2, which in turn can exhange with the atmosphere.
(This sequence is behind the equation 1 in the AO is not OK series, I believe. The equation really reflects the net effect of calcification on seawater chemistry rather than what happens exactly at the moment of calcium carbonate precipitation).
4. The opposite reaction (weathering, or dissolution of calcium carbonate) obviously consumes CO2 and produces bicarbonate for the same reasons. Doug brings up the consumption of CO2 by weathering of calcareous deposits on land because it implies that formation of those cliffs must have released CO2. If both the weathering and production of calcium carbonate consumed CO2 you'd have a real problem balancing the equations!
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Stephen Baines at 07:40 AM on 10 January 2015Not pHraud but pHoolishness
Rob P. @33
I agree the equation may be a bit misleading. The actual calcification step involves carbonate and calcium becoming supersaturating and forming mineral. The organisms promote this by transporting bicarbonate and Ca ions to specific areas of deposition, because those are the ions for which they have transporters, as far as I know. But it is the carbonate concentrations that result when the pH is ratched up that are relevant to mineral formation. High carbonate concentrations are easier to acheive when the pH and the starting concentration of carbonate is greater.
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - I sense a blog post/rebuttal in my future, as this aspect has been somewhat glossed over. It's important for readers to be able to close the loop and understand how it all fits together. The calcification process, and how equation one fits into the loop, is one of the missing elements.
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Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
OPOF - "I wonder if a coordinated collective action of "scientist-advocates" targetting a single prey among the wealthy and powerful at the top of the denier pyramid would be successful."
Probably not. The really wealthy will continue to contribute via cut-outs (Donors Trust and the like), and front-man spokespeople will continue to be recruited to fill gaps whenever someone with apparent science credentials is revealed to be a shill or simply loses credibility.
There are always lobbying paths available.
I would much rather show that the arguments used by the deniers are baseless (h/t SkS), and that the science is clear, which gets at the root of the public policy issue.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:37 AM on 10 January 2015Economics supports immediate action on global warming
r.pauli,
I have an MBA (I am also an Engineer, please do not hold either of those against me, I try to not be like the stereotypes).
The problem with relying on ethics and morals and decency is that those are actually competitive disadvantages in almost all of the popular socio-economic-political systems, particularly the ones with 'more freedom for unethical, immoral, indecent actions to be successful'.
In my MBA courses we did have a course on Corpoarte Ethics. The not too shocking part of that course was the lack of a significant number of case studies presenting ethical, moral, decent behaviour. The case studies were a diverse variety of examples of the other type of behaviour. And that was simply because unethical, immoral, indecent behaviour can easily be more profitable if it can be gotten away with.
We also learned about the unsustainable but temporary effectiveness of deliberately deceptive marketing. There is a lot of science behind deceptive marketing. It is not just an art. Some people make a very good living from it (temporarily on each campaign or business venture, but that is all that matters because they only need benefit in their lifetime and they can always move on to the next unsustainable damaging venture).
So ethics only matter to people who care. Sadly the current socio-economic-political systems (all of them, not just democratic free-market ones), continue to allow unethical actions to succeed which encourages others to try to be similarly successful. It truly is a spiral of activity that never can be expected to lead toward a sustainable better future. Love is the answer, but quoting the likes of John Lennon won't be enough, and certainly won't change the minds of people who really want to get away with unacceptable pursuits of what they want.
As Naomi Klein's latest book "This Changes Everything" points out, the system needs to be fundamentally changed. I refer to what is required as a Signicant System Update and Reboot. And as fatalistic as this may sound, that change is essential to the future of humanity.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:15 AM on 10 January 2015Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
A major part of the real problem is people who are actually aware of the problem but want to be part of the group benefiting most from getting away with creating the problem. They create and support the attacks on climate science and specific scientists.
I wonder if a coordinated collective action of "scientist-advocates" targetting a single prey among the wealthy and powerful at the top of the denier pyramid would be successful. Relentlessly naming and shaming them seems appropriate. Rolling Stone Magazine is one publication that is clearly trying to do that. But they present a broad variety of trouble makers rather than coordinating a relentless focus on exposing the unacceptability of the actions of a particular target until that target changes their mind. There are so many deserving targets it is almost like the carnival game Whack-a-Mole where a hit counts but it does not stop the critter from trying to re-emerge.
Better still would be getting coordinated action among lawmakers to one-at-a-time pointedly significantly penalize the 'deliberate decievers among the wealthiest and most powerful who know better'. But that would require people who aren't willing to be part of the problem to be successful at winning leadership roles. Which would require voters who do not wish to benefit from being part of the problem to succeed in electing such people as leaders.
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billthefrog at 06:02 AM on 10 January 2015Not pHraud but pHoolishness
@ Moderator Comment
Thanks Rob. It's nice to know that there's even more stuff that I don't know anything about, even when I started by knowing so little. ;)
(That's just one of the reasons why I was glad that we only had to do Chemistry in First Year.)
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r.pauli at 05:44 AM on 10 January 2015Economics supports immediate action on global warming
Rather than economics, "Ethics supports immediate action on global warming"
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wili at 05:41 AM on 10 January 2015Economics supports immediate action on global warming
"The actions of a current generation must make the future better."
No chance of that, at this point. -
kiwipoet at 04:03 AM on 10 January 2015Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
A brilliant, apt metaphor for what is happening. As with bullying, which this Serengeti strategy is, it is vital to shine a light on the behaviour. To identify and name it, as Mann has done. Abuse thrives in unseen, and while these ad hominem attacks are very public, their affects and intentions are cloaked behind a pretend regard for science. This, to extend the metaphor, is the predators' camouflage. Courageous scientists like Dr Mann deserve our full and public support.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:48 AM on 10 January 2015Economics supports immediate action on global warming
My previous comment presents an 'aspiration' or 'guiding principle' that I am aware can be difficult for some people to clearly understand. Other ways to say my previous point are:
No person or group of people should try to obtain benefit at the expense of other people. Things need to be getting better for everyone. So any 'future cost' resulting from a current generaton's pursuits of its own benefits is unacceptable. And it is more unacceptable if the benefits in a current generation involve some in the current generation benefiting at the expense of others in the current generation.
The actions of a current generation must make the future better. It is unacceptable for a current generation to benefit in a way that reduces the value of the future or creates costs or challenges that will be faced in the future. Everyone benefiting needs to be required to also expend their own money and effort to ensure there is no future problem or expense as a result of their actions in pursuit of benefit.
All people must strive to live in a way that is a sustainable part of the robust diversity of life on this amazing planet.
All people should be striving to participate in advancing things toward a sustainable better future for all life on this amazing planet. And the ones who don't care to help need to be kept from doing any harm because whatever harm they cause (are able to get away with creating without be required to fully mitigate at their own expense), makes it more difficult for everyone else to do what needs to be done.
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Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Douglas and Knox have a couple of follow-up papers in press here and here, being published by the same journal as their previous work. In those they claim that they have identified solar 'phase-locked' temperature changes in Paciffic SST3.4 of cycle lengths 1 and 2-3 years, extending to 2000m depth (!), and conclude that ENSO is due to short solar variations. Any longer trends are said to be due to the 'climate shifts' they have presented before (which are debunked here).
Note that climate is a curious topic for that journal, Physics Letters A, which states it's focus as "General Physics, Nonlinear Science, Statistical Physics, Atomic, Molecular and Cluster Physics, Plasma and Fluid Physics, Condensed Matter, Cross-disciplinary Physics, Biological Physics, Nanosciences, Quantum Physics, Optical physics". This follows a common pattern of publishing contrarian papers in low circulation off-topic journals.
I will note that there is no mention whatsoever of statistical significance or testing in these papers - D&K are IMO drawing amazing conclusions from periods far too short to be anything but noise.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:52 AM on 10 January 2015Economics supports immediate action on global warming
It is even incorrect to claim that 'all is OK as long as an honest thorough economic assessment shows that the costs a future generation faces trying to adapt to climate disruption due to the impacts of previous generations are a match for the benefits obtained by previous generations creating those costs faced by the future generations.'
And it is laughable that anyone would claim to be able to accurately thoroughly estimate the costs required to adapt to the difficult to predict but rapidly changing climate, especially laughable if that person has been inclined to believe or create claims that any perieved inaccuracy of the current predictions of climate science justifies ignoring the science until it is much better able to exactly predict every future moment of regional climate impact.
However, those 'laughable' type of people have succeeded in becoming wealthy and powerful because of he ability toget away with unsustainable ad damaging actions. Including the ability to temporaily tempt many people into supporting their laughably irrational but very damaging desired beliefs (particularly at the moment of an election), which is no laughing matter.
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billthefrog at 01:31 AM on 10 January 2015Not pHraud but pHoolishness
@ Stephen & Doug et al
As I only did Chemistry in First Year (and that was a long, long time ago) I am struggling to keep up with the subtleties here. Would I be correct in thinking that this represents a good example of le Chatelier's Principle in action?
If memory serves, an over-abundance of one of the components in an equilibrium-type reaction would tend to force the equilibrium point in the opposite direction. Hence, this would act as a sort of negative feedback and consequently would somewhat compensate for the initial over-abundance.
Am I understanding this correctly?
Cheers Bill F
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - I would recommend you read the OA not OK series (left hand column of the page). Part 7 deals with Le Chatelier's principle.
I do wonder, however, if this series may be slightly revised as some stage because equation 1 is very confusing for most. A naive interpretation could be that increased bicarbonate in the ocean, as a result increased CO2 dissolved in seawater, might be expected to aid biological marine calcification, rather than hinder it.
Bicarbonate is indeed a source of calcification, but it looks like marine calcifiers convert the bicarbonate ion to carbonate in order to form calcium carbonate structures by pumping hydrogen ions out of internal chambers where this calcification takes place. The decrease in the number of hydrogen ions raises the pH of the calcifying fluid considerably and this is what enables the building of the shell or skeleton. There's much more it than that of course, but that's the basic gist.
The concentration of carbonate ions represents an energy gradient upon which calcification must operate. More carbonate ions and less bicarbonate ions make calcification easier, and less carbonate ions and more bicarbonate ions (as in OA) makes shell formation more difficult - the organism has to work harder, pumping more hydrogen ions out of the calcification chamber in order to reach the required level of carbonate saturation.
So, well before carbonate undersaturation is reached (i.e. seawater becomes physically corrosive to calcium carbonate forms), ocean acidification will affect growth rates in many marine organisms.
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slowtojump at 00:24 AM on 10 January 2015A detailed look at Hansen's 1988 projections
I would like to see these graphs updated to 2015 and have the discussion again.
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Doug Mackie at 17:12 PM on 9 January 2015Not pHraud but pHoolishness
siloch @28: umm you get deposits like the cliffs at Dover.And then those deposits weather (OA not OK post #6).Increased CO2 in atmosphere leads to increase in acidity of rain, leading to increased weathering of rocks. (Calcification is a source of CO2, weathering of rocks is a sink). Appendix 1 shows this process alone is sufficient (in absence of other processes, see caveats) to remove all CO2 from atmosphere in 3,000-4,000 years.Read the rest of the OA series and then get back with questions. -
Tom Curtis at 16:29 PM on 9 January 2015There is no consensus
amhartley @652, there are several rebutals of various denier talking points regarding Cook et al 2012. This is the most general, but this one is also worth looking up.
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ubrew12 at 14:48 PM on 9 January 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #2A
"Limiting global warming means forgoing vast fuel reserves - study by Kate Kellen, Reuters" I couldn't get this link to work.
I got it here, and the BBC is also reporting it here.
Moderator Response:[JH] Link fixed. Thank you for bringing this glitch to our attention.
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amhartley at 11:19 AM on 9 January 2015There is no consensus
Thanks, MA Rodger & JH, for the input. I had a hunch Epstein was himself misrepresenting things, but as a statistician—rather than a climate scientist--I might not be able to debunk all of his claims. However, if the experts at SKS were to publish, routinely, rebuttals of claims like those, I can imagine those rebuttals could help others like me to both understand the truth & communicate it more widely.
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wili at 08:47 AM on 9 January 2015Economics supports immediate action on global warming
Some good points here, but conventional Neo-Classical economics is not going to get us there--in fact, it is precisely what we have to jettison as soon as possible if we are going to start the process of building a civilization that is not set on destroying the living planet and the systems that support it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCkCVFI3934#t=824
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Stephen Baines at 05:27 AM on 9 January 2015Not pHraud but pHoolishness
Slioch @28
I'm not a real chemical oceanographer, but I'll take a stab at this. Doug can correct the specifics later. I'd be interested to hear his opinion as I sometimes have to teach this stuff.
You have to think of the combined ability of both the ocean and the sediment to store carbon from the atmosphere when answering this question. By producing calcium carbonate, a calcifying organism is removing a Ca2+ ion from solution by bonding it to a carbonate ion. That has two effects.
First, it removes the Ca2+ ion from solution and places it in sediments. By reducing the base cation concentration in the ocean, this reduces the total amount of bicarbonate and carbonate ion in solution within the ocean at equilibrium. With respect to the atmospheric CO2, this transfer is stealing from Peter to pay Paul.
Second, calcification is not an efficient way to use Ca to store C away from the atmosphere, at least relative to having dissolved calcium ions. In calcium carbonate, you store one mole of C (as CO32-) per mole of bivalent Ca. When dissolved in the ocean at current pH, univalent bicarbonate (HCO3-) is the most abundant form of dissolved inorganic carbon at current pH. To maintain charge balance, two bicarbonate ions are in kept solution for every dissolved bivalent Ca ion.
So yes, the sudden appearance of a massively calcifying organism would increase atmospheric CO2 by moving removing more storage capacity from the ocean than it adds to the sediments. Therefore some of the huge reservoir of carbon stored as dissolved bicarbonate and carbonate in ocean water would be free to equilibrate with the atmospheric reservoir of CO2. The exact effect would vary a little depending on the pH, chemistry and temperature of the ocean. The effect becomes more neutral as you consider pHs above current levels because dissolved carbonate becomes more abundant.
Of course, it's a hypothetical example, as such an organism would find it increasingly difficult to calcify as the ocean pH became more acidic and carbonate became less abundant in ocean water. Also, we have not discussed the secondary effect of calcium carbonate production on storage of organic carbon. That is a different kettle of fish entirely.
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MA Rodger at 19:49 PM on 8 January 2015There is no consensus
The Forbes story amhartley asked about @650 is rather strong in its assertions. It asserts that Cook et al (2013) involves "egregious misconduct" and was "a deliberate misrepresentation designed to intimidate the public." These claims are backed up by a mis-description of the Cook et al method and the comments of some well-known scientists - Richard Tol, Craig Idso, Nicola Scafetta and Dr. Nir Shaviv, this last one being a not-so-well-known climate change denier compared with the other three.
Moderator Response:[JH] The author of the Forbes article is Alex Epstein, founder of the Center for Industrial Progress and author of The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels. As a Forbers contributor, Epstein states, "I write about the environmental benefits of industrial progress." I guess we know which side his bread is buttered.
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Slioch at 18:43 PM on 8 January 2015Not pHraud but pHoolishness
Thanks to Stephen and Doug for their posts. I have a friend arriving soon for several days and I know that once she's here thoughts about ocean acidity (or anything else for that matter) will recede from my mind, so I will have to study your posts and possibly come back much later. I've read the first four parts of OA not OK and it is all very straightforward, except for the subject in dispute (the answer to which, I suspect, may turn out to be a question of time scales), but I will have a look at the rest once I have the opportunity.
Meanwhile, if I may, could I pose a question:
Suppose we have an Earth in which oceans and atmosphere are more or less at equilibrium and in which atmospheric CO2 and oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon is not changing very much over the long term (in other words an Earth in which no great volcanic or mountain building activity is occuring and no naked ape is chucking fossil carbon into the atmosphere like there's no tomorrow). Into this unchanging world a new lifeform evolves that causes the deposition and sequestration of huge quantities of calcium carbonate on the ocean floors. What then happens to the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere over time?
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - A scenario similar to that which you propose most likely did happen in Earth's past. Given the information provided by Doug Mackie & Stephen Baines, what do you think would happen?
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Doug Mackie at 14:16 PM on 8 January 2015Not pHraud but pHoolishness
Siloch: Stephen Baines is correct about the importance of speciation. See the speciation fig.3 (below) in part 8 of OA not OK series and the step through to make your own figure in Appendix 2 of the book we did (link someone?) .
To counter denialists it is important to be rigorous. I mean no disrespect but your simplified eqn @6 was misleading and incorrect. Why give them a chance to misunderstand and misinterpret?It is worth recalling that it is not 'acidity' per se that is the problem for CaCO3 dissolution. Instead the key point is that changing [H3O+] causes a change in [CO3=] and it is this change in concentration of carbonate that causes problems. Adding CO2 to atmosphere causes CO2 to enter ocean. This increases total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the ocean but decreases the fraction of DIC that is carbonate ions. (See parts 15 and 16 of the OA series).
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - pic & link provided.
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sauerj at 12:17 PM on 8 January 2015Pope Francis plants a flag in the ground on climate change
I'd like to see the following 'points spelled out in Francis's encyclical:
1) Basic Background Content: Well worded, convincing and comprehensive explanation of the science and, from there, man's only moral response toward a truly sustainable culture.
Other ideas to make the encyclical even more effective:
2) Announce that the Vatican would divest from FF's and strongly request all catholic dioceses to do the same.
3) Announce that the Vatican will develop plans to become FF free by year 20XX. And, request all catholic dioceses to start tracking & publishing parish, school & hospital carbon footprint, and develop plans to reduce usage and stick to their plans.
4) Announce that Vatican will sponsor a blue-ribbon panel of scientists, policy leaders and climate knowledgeable clergy to issue global strategical recommendations on how the catholic church can best make meaningful and effective long-term impacts on mitigating and reversing the current unsustainable trend of AGW.
5) Announce that Vatican will hold multi-year inter-faith conferences with representatives from all religions on developing multi-religious plans on mitigating climate change.
6) Announce 'Year of the God's Creation' with expectation that dioceses hold seminars, youth activities, novenas, special liturgical prayers, etc. to awaken & motivate our responsibilities towards the world's future generations.
7) Promote Pray & Constant Diligience: Indicating that the Pope & all Catholic leaders should promote constant focus & pray on the subject. -
amhartley at 10:47 AM on 8 January 2015There is no consensus
This story
came up yesterday, about the consensus; I wonder if it deserves a response?
Moderator Response:[RH] Hotlinked url.
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Dcrickett at 09:37 AM on 8 January 2015Pope Francis plants a flag in the ground on climate change
#1 shoyemore: Thanks for bringing that Hayhoe interview to our attention; just now I finished reading it. And more thanks for selecting the quote, which captures well the essence of the interview.
…David Collins
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chriskoz at 08:47 AM on 8 January 20152015 SkS Weekly Digest #1
Oil slump stalls sector projects
Not a word about Keystone (or other unconventional oil projects) but I think Obama will face easier decision to ban it in such environment. Eventually, there will be no economic incentive to dig Canadian tar sands (American fracking has essencialy beaten it) which is (unfortunately for human intelligence) stronger than any env incentives discussed on this and not only site.
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Stephen Baines at 08:00 AM on 8 January 2015Not pHraud but pHoolishness
I should mention that many people have the mistaken idea that to be consumed, CO2 must be converted to a particulate form, like a plant or rock. But, from the point of view of water chemistry and the interaction of the ocean with the atmosphere, the speciation of dissolved inorganic carbon is extremely important.
The vast majority of ocean carbon is as bicarbonate, so more dissolved inorganic carbon as bicarbonate in the ocean means less CO2 in the atmosphere, given a closed budget. Less inorganic carbon as bicarbonate means more CO2 in the atmosphere. By removing base cations, the precipitation of calcium carbonates reduces the amount of dissolved bicarbonate in the ocean, and thus reduces the total amount of CO2 the ocean can absorb.
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Stephen Baines at 07:38 AM on 8 January 2015Not pHraud but pHoolishness
Slioch,
Understood. But the equation you presented is not the actual reaction that would take place if you added CO2 to the ocean.
When CO2 dissolves in water at pH 8 it largely dissociates to bicarbonate ions and protons. The release of the protons actually causes equation 3 in your post @19 above to want to run the opposite direction than you have it, because the increased acidity shifts the carbonic acid-bicarbonate-carbonate equilibrium away from carbonate and toward bicarbonate and carbonic acid. So it should read..
1) H2O + CO2 + CaCO3 ==> Ca++ + 2HCO3-
If you add that to the equations involving hydration of aqueous CO2 to form carbonic acid and the subsequent dissociation of most of the carbon acid to bicarbonate given a pH~8, you get
2) 2H2O + CaCO3 + 2CO2 ==> H+ + 3HCO3- + Ca++
Actually, the reaction mostly occurs after the aqueous CO2 has equilibrated with bicarbonate, so...
3) 2H+ + CaCO3 + 2HCO3- ==> H+ + 3HCO3- + Ca++
they are stoichiometrically equivalent, but the net effect (after reequilibration) is closer to the latter under current pH. Calcite dissolution has the net effect of removing protons and, thus, lowering acidity. It also consumes CO2. Calcite formation does the opposite.
So, Segalstad is wrong on two counts. If the Ca was to bind to anthropogenic CO2, it would force reaction 1 to run backward, which would actually increase the CO2 in the oceans, not decrease it. This would perforce increase acidity after equilibration with bicarbonate. You are also essentially removing basic cations (Ca++) and alkalinity in the oceans and decreasing the equilibrium concentration of bicarbonate, and therefore the capacity of the ocean to absorb CO2 and store it as dissolved inorganic carbon.
Second, adding CO2 would actually tend to retard formation of calcium carbonate anyway. So it's pointless to say that enough dissolved Ca is present to bind the bicarbonate, because if anything calcium carbonate will be dissolving with more CO2, causing Ca++ concentrations to rise further in the future. You'd have to add an unimaginable amount of base to the ocean to do what Segalstad is suggesting. It's kind of like saying there is enough dissolved gold in ocean water to make everyone rich and then wondering why we aren't all rich.
What is true is that there is enough calcium carbonate in the ocean sediments to largely neutralize athropogenic CO2 dissolved in seawater, but that process is much slower than release of CO2 has been and will take thousands of years to complete.
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Slioch at 05:18 AM on 8 January 2015Not pHraud but pHoolishness
Stephen @ 21
Take a look back at the origin of this discussion of ocean chemistry. It began at #6 when I used that equation to counter Tom Segalstad's false assertion that ""the upper 200m of ocean water contains enough dissolved calcium to bind all anthropogenic CO2 as precipitated calcium carbonate ... without effecting the ocean's pH". It seems to me that claiming that increased CO2 will not increase ocean acidity is an important falsehood to counter, and that equation is a simple way of so doing.
(for info. on Tom Segalstad see, for example, http://www.desmogblog.com/tom-segalstad )
The equation 1. presented in the OA not OK article does not obviously address that issue, and the subsequent discussion was on a separate issue.
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Firgoose at 03:46 AM on 8 January 2015Not pHraud but pHoolishness
On a more serious note, assuming that the graph shows seawater pH for surface layers, can one presume that the change in the graph since about 2000, being reminiscent of changes in the temperature graphs, is similar in being caused by more CO2 being pushed to deeper levels?
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Firgoose at 03:38 AM on 8 January 2015Not pHraud but pHoolishness
Have the deniers missed an easy reuse of a broken trick? Eyeballing that Station Aloha graph from 2000 (or, if it were clearer, maybe even the magical 1998?), it's clear that there's been a hiatus(!) in the seawater pH decline. In fact, if you choose your points carefully, has it actually risen? ;o)
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