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gac73 at 11:31 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
@mancan18
If you haven't read the post correctly, nor have reading the clarification post above, then I'll not bother making a point regarding your post that states "there is no common sense science"
What I will say however, is that William didn't use any words remotely resembling the words "common" , "sense" or "science". I'm hoping that merely because I am the view that he stated regarding fossil fuel use in the third world, that you haven't just assumed he has used the same terminology on a completely different train of thought, that I used above?
And by the way - despite the clarification above, there sure is a thing called common sense science. It's common sense to avoid statistical noise and it's common sense to respect error margins in data. This is something that I see regurlarly missing from claims made by particular people from a particular side of the AGW arguement.
When claims made upon data that fails to respect common sense in science, you can't expect common sense people to buy it.
Moderator Response:[JH] You are skating on the thin ice of sloganeering which is prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
[PS] Gac73 - you are making vague illusions to problems that you perceive with the science that without any supporting evidence so this comes across as mere sloganneering. Things that are "believed" as common knowledge in denier community often do not bear close examination. If you have points to make it would be better to illustrate with specific examples and support your assertions with references. Eg you seem to be claiming climate science is ignoring error limits and statistical noise. A specific example of this problem would avoid the charge of sloganeering.
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2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #1B
This link didn't work for me -
Top 10 Misguided Climate Deniers’ Quotes of 2014
Moderator Response:[JH] Link fixed. Thank you for pointing out this glitch.
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scaddenp at 09:06 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Actually I would like a clear statement from William on whether he accepts that FF have uncosted externalities which would substantially change the price if costed. If William does not accept this, then why not?
Would he accept an alternative principle that future adaptation costs (starting immediately) resulting from climate change (especially those resulting in agriculture loss due to salt invasion from rising sealevel, land loss, and water cycle changes) be apportioned to countries in proportion to their cumulative contribution to change in climate forcing? Countries could chose whether to simply accept migrants and settle them, or pay for irrigation, desalination, flood protection, sea walls etc that would allow agriculture at pre-2010 levels.
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Andy Skuce at 09:04 AM on 5 January 2015A Relentless Rise in Global Sea Level
There was a poster at the 2014 AGU meeting that calculated the effect on albedo of flooding of coastal areas. Because the sea tends to be darker than the land, this leads to a (very) slight positive feedback.
"We find that the feedback is positive, but very weak. While the spatial pattern of sea-level rise is varying strongly with temperature, we find that the strength of the feedback is relatively independent of the temperature change, and around 0.8±0.1 %; i.e., an external forcing of 1 W/m2 will result in 1.008 W/m2 change of the energy balance."
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michael sweet at 08:50 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Rob,
While I am sure that you and many of the other posters at SkS care about Bangladesh (I am partial to Tuvalu also), it is my experience that most deniers in the USA do not care about other countries. Since there are so many examples of people in trouble from climate change I use examples from Florida (where I live). Students in my class care more about sea level rise affecting Miami than the much greater number of people affected in Bangladesh.
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Tom Curtis at 08:35 AM on 5 January 2015A Relentless Rise in Global Sea Level
Michaele Whittemore @11&12, the length of the worlds coast line has been quoted as being 1.635 million kilometers long (the longest estimate I could find, although a smaller scale would result in a longer estimate). The world's oceans have an area of 361.162 million km^2. So, even if 2 meters of sea level rise flooded an average of a kilometer back from the shore around the world, it would only flood 0.5% of the ocean surface area. In percentage terms, that is well below the observational error for measuring sea level rise, and can be neglected.
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Tom Curtis at 08:10 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
william @34:
"These countries argue that they should not be expected to forgo fossil fuel exploitation, which is what the West asks of them, as the development of the West was largely facilitated by the burning of fossil fuels."
It is odd. I have a very considerable familly connection to Africa (dating from 1671), grew up partially in Africa, have close familly involvement in Africa both politically and developmentally, and am in regular indirect communication with Africans (I act as my mother's secretary in her direct communications). Never-the-less I would not be so arrogant, as William is, to pretend I can speak for Africans, or tell the world what Africans are saying without direct quotation.
When I do try to find out what the Africans are saying, I find that they are saying that "... with 96 per cent of African agriculture dependent on rainfall and 50 per cent of fisheries related jobs estimated to be lost by 2050, climate change poses unimaginable consequences to livelihoods in Africa. Thus, the ministers were forthright in calling for a new climate regime that is legally binding and which addresses the continent’s needs after the current regime- the Kyoto protocol expires in 2015." (Source) I also find their negotiating position to be that they should urgently shift to renewable energy, but require funding assistance to do so (source, details of proposed scheme).
Neither of these positions looks anything like the unsourced opinion William ascribes to them. Indeed, what appears to be happening here is that a particular privileged westerner, ie, William, is seeking to put his views into the mouths of the third world rather than taking the care to find out what the people of the third world are themselves saying (which, I am sure, is a host of different and contradictory things just as in the West, but the informed and official positions seem quite clear).
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Dcrickett at 07:48 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Several commenters have discussed the variety of types of people who are «Deniers». Regarding people who deny science matters other than CO₂ emissions, I know a young person who denies Evolution; is a passionate partisan of Young-World Creationism; is a climate activist; and is also a ΦΒΚ graduate, currently a grad student. Obviously not a person to be scorned. Also and just as obviously, a person outside the 3σ range.
Moderator Response:Fixed
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scaddenp at 07:46 AM on 5 January 2015A Relentless Rise in Global Sea Level
I appreciate the diagram, but the on the scale of world oceans, the expansion of the basin surface area associated with the rise is pretty tiny, especially compared to ocean depth.
For GRACE, the expansion of ocean due to rising sea level is impossibly tiny at that resolution. The bigger issue is changes in the freshwater storage on land.
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longjohn119 at 07:21 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
You say Common Sense and I say Myths and Old Wives Tales
Tomāto ....Tomăto .....
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ubrew12 at 07:08 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
william@39 said "the view point of the "poor nations" is why should they forgo the economic advantage that the West enjoyed by [exploiting fossil fuels]?" I don't think that actually IS their viewpoint. In any case, since developed nations built their development on the back of inexpensive fossils, its incumbent upon them to spurt the development of inexpensive non-fossils, and they are doing just that (not quickly enough, but still). And what is inexpensive in Australia is now also inexpensive in India.
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william11409 at 05:40 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Rob Painting @ 36 and 37. From your cosseted Western Worldview point It may well be "extraordinarily daft" to ecourage poor nations to expand fossil fuel consumption but the view point of the "poor nations" is why should they forgo the economic advantage that the West enjoyed by doing just that? This comment may, again, be viewed as trolling by commenters here but if so, perhaps any such commenter may like to look at the comments from these countries at Copenhage, Cancun and Lima. Not sure if you're in Australia, I think you are, but here people are reluctant to move, say, from NSW to WA or vice versa to get work.. That doesn't really gel with your comment that rich people can move. They may have the ability to do so but that certainly doesn't translate to motivation.
Moderator Response:[JH] Pratter designed to antagonize other commenters is not welcome on this website. Either comply with the SkS Comments Policy or relinquish your privilege of posting comments.
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MA Rodger at 05:23 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
william @34.
Concerning trolls, your stance here does not appear constructive or come-hitherly, just like a troll's stance. I don't see where your pushing this developing world argument is going other than to present a contrary position. And you set your argument so poorly that it does not appear genuine to me.
Concerning the replacing of Kyoto, it is wrong to suggest that such a follow-on to Kyoto was unobtainable because "the West" insisted that developing countries "forgo fossil fuel exploitation" which developing countries then refused to do. Rather, it was the US in particular that has struggled with making commitments to emissions cuts when developing countries had not been asked to make such commitments. Or perhaps it is more correct that the US has struggled to make any commitment whatever towards reducing its emissions. Such a stance is difficult to countenance when the US is arguably the number-one emissions offender. And it was after all the US that failed even to ratify Kyoto.
This argument you make on behalf of developing countries, are you then arguing that extra emissions to 'facilitate' economic development should be added to the allowable emissions from such countries? How many GtC did you have in mind to budget for such an allowance?
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Rob Painting at 05:05 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
"Why worry about Bangladesh when there are so many problems in the USA (or Australia if you live there)"
Rich people can move. Poor people not so much.
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Rob Painting at 04:59 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
"These countries argue that they should not be expected to forgo fossil fuel exploitation, which is what the West asks of them"
It would be an extraordinarily daft thing to do, to encourage poor nations to expand fossil fuel consumption at a time when the very consumption of said fossil fuels is effecting dangerous change on Earth's climate and ecosystems. True, most wealthy nations are doing zip and in fact are increasing their emissions of CO2, but do you jump off a cliff because it's the trendy thing to do?
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:28 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Re: william@22 and gac73@24 and beyond,
I often present the case that since the impacts of burning buried hydrocarbons are unacceptable the only ones who should benefit in any way from such an activity should be the poorest of the poor. And they should only benefit for as long as it takes to rapidly transition them up to a sustainable decent way of living.
Any 'developed' economy or society heavily reliant on the ultimately unsustainable burning of buried hydrocarbons (they are non-renewable) actually has no future, really isn't 'developed' at all.
That perspective challenges the beliefs and desires of many people in the so-called 'developed' societies. So I agree with you about the real problem being the attitude of those type of people in developed societies. However, those same unacceptable attitudes exist in developing societies.
The global GDP has increased many times faster than the global population. And every nation with desperately poor people in it has enough total wealth for the poorest to live a decent basic existence. The real problem is clearly the socio-economic-political system raging around the planet which actually encourages and rewards greed, and rewards intolerance that will vote side-by-side with greed.
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william11409 at 02:25 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
MA Rodger you comment "So to suggest that there is some reason for the west to re-evaluate its position in light of the situation facing the developing world (or some paret thereof) is at best exceedingly foolish. At worst it is trollish" Commenters on this site do seem a tad fixated on trolls.
It appears to have escaped your attention that the failure so far to replace the Kyoto Treaty with one that is acceptable to all nations is that re-valuating its position is exactly what the developing countries want the West to do These countries argue that they should not be expected to forgo fossil fuel exploitation, which is what the West asks of them, as the development of the West was largely facilitated by the burning of fossil fuels.
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Phil at 02:15 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
M.A. Rodger @32
I concur wholeheartedly. The societies that William describes will probably be currently supplied with electricity from a petrol or kerosene generator, supplied to local (town or village) distribution network which will be operational for a few hours each day. The fuel will probably be supplied by trucks slowly traversing potholed roads. There will be no transmission network or associated infrastructure (substations) thus rendering "baseload" irrelevant
In such a scenario, small scale solar and/or wind installations are a significant improvement in life quality, especially if coupled with battery usages (such as electric bicycles). The installation can grow incrementally without large up-front infrastructure costs.
There are interesting parallels with the telecommunications developments in the third world. Most, if not all, of Africa has mobile phone access (supplied by companies such as MTN), without having gone to the expense of building an extensive static copper/fibre infrastructure to support the now largely redundant land-lines.
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Michael Whittemore at 01:54 AM on 5 January 2015A Relentless Rise in Global Sea Level
This is the image below
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Michael Whittemore at 01:21 AM on 5 January 2015A Relentless Rise in Global Sea Level
@Rob P,
You linked me to the paper Balancing the sea level budget - Leuliette & Willis (2011) which I gave a quick read.
The paper explains “Using GRACE measurements alone, for regions near coasts, it is impossible to distinguish whether gravity variations are influenced by water changes on land or in the ocean.” I was thinking sea level rise could be slowing because the sea water is progressing inland. A example can be seen in the diagram below.
If you treat the coast as a barrier you could get sea level rise A but if you include sea water inundation of coastal areas you could get sea level rise B.
Another factor I dont think is discussed in the paper is if the amount of cold water from melting ice is reducing thermal expansion? -
MA Rodger at 01:13 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
William @26.
You will really have to try a lot harder if you wish to "look at the position of the developing world through unbiased eyes not through the prism of the privileged Westerner." If a society is as you describe @22 lacking "access to clean water, medical care, sufficient food, education and all of the other trappings of life we in the West, take not only for granted but as our God given right," the adjective "developing" would be a bit of a misnomer as 'development' has jet to begin. The best options for providing power within such societies are probably renewables which, once set up, do not depend on the arrival of the next coal truck from the coast. "Base load" or "transport options" are hardily applicable for the initial power needs of such communities.
And the relevance of such societies to discussion of AGW mitigation is low when compared with societies that are actually developing.
Even so, the total CO2 emissions of all societies beyond the 'privileged West', when the carbon footprint of goods manufactures for export are factored in, their emissions remain the smaller part of today's emissions. So to suggest that there is some reason for the west to re-evaluate its position in light of the situation facing the developing world (or some paret thereof) is at best exceedingly foolish. At worst, it is trollish.
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PhilippeChantreau at 00:52 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Incidentally, anyone throwing around ridiculous concepts such as "common sense science" should not be expected to be treated kindly on a site where a lot of moderators/contributors have a record of peer-reviewed publications...
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PhilippeChantreau at 00:50 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Fossil fuels are cheap only because the vast majority of their associated costs are hidden or "externalized." If these costs were factored in, FF would become more expensive than renewables. Beyond a certain point, hiding becomes impossible. We're running a huge credit card bill on our planet, the debt is cumulative and will not go away. We're in a race, in which Thermodynamics always win. We're just having the attitude that it's ok because it's a generational relay race and we'll have handed the stick over when the finish line is crossed, so someone else will have the sour feeling of no winning...
For what it's worth, my electricity is from hydro.
I've lived in countries of the kind mentioned by commenters above. By far their worst problems are human problems: corruption, cronyism, misallocation of resources, leaders who don't give a rat's about their people. The West caters to it so long as they benefit. It is no less physically possible to implement sustainable solutions in these countries, just more difficult because of the human factors of governance.
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william11409 at 00:47 AM on 5 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Manacan @28. Can't see where I used the term "common sense science" or even implied that I believe in it. I'd be grateful if you could point to the comments I made that lead you to the conclusion that I did. I am aware alternatives to fossil fuels are being used to some extent in the cement and aluminium industries but, with the exception of hydropower, these have not yet entirely replaced the use of fossil fuels nor seem likely to in the near future. I'm surprised you don't comment on the role of nuclear power.
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mancan18 at 22:37 PM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Gac73 and william
There is no such thing as common sense science. Common sense is not science. Science is observation, hypothesis, collecting and tabulating data, verifying, peer review and then other scientists accepting the hypothesis so that it becomes a part of mainstream scientific theory. What you call common sense science is either basic science or not science at all.
The basic science of climate change is that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. Greenhouse gases due to the burning of fossil fuels are increasing to levels not seen for millions of years. This increase in CO2 is and will heat the planet, and this heating is and will cause a climate shift. Despite all their rhetoric, the denier hypothesis, in simple terms, is that increasing greenhouse gases won't warm the planet. Unfortunately, deniers don't ever seem to be required to prove their hypothesis with peer reviewed research.
So far we have seen arguments that deny warming, nothing strange is happening, or it's all just natural. None of this rhetoric stands up to significant peer reviewed scientific scrutiny. Now the latest argument from the climate doubting community seems to be that increasing the CO2 level and changing the chemistry of the earth's atmosphere doesn't matter, even though it is a greenhouse gas and will heat the planet. They cite times in the planet's history when CO2 levels were high, like around the Cambrian, when trilobites were the dominant species, or during the Cretaceous when, for a time, dinosaurs roamed Antarctica. Mind you the configuration of the continents was different and the Sun's radiation was significantly less than it is today. But that doesn't seem to matter to a denier despite the reality that at no time in human existence have CO2 levels been as high as they are today. Also, at no time in the Earth's history has the CO2 levels changed as quickly as they are today. While the worst case IPCC scenario would cause some fairly extreme changes in climate, which will seriously impact significant parts of the planet, there has never been the suggestion it would cause a runaway greenhouse like there is on Venus. It may, however, severely impact ecosystems that are important for sustaining humanity at its current standard of civilisation.
As for the "coal is good for humanity" argument that Australia's PM Tony Abbott seems so fond of, it too doesn't stack up as a long term solution to alleviate poverty in the Third World. A simple calculation based on known fossil fuel reserves world wide and consumption rates used by high emitting nations like Australia and the US, indicates that fossil fuels are not a viable long term energy solution to their problems. If they consume fossil fuels at the per capita rates that the high emitter nations do, then there would only be about 50 years of fossil fuel energy left. Also, this would put the CO2 levels to well over 1000 ppm with all the global warming consequences that that would incur. The only long term solution are renewables. Unfortunately, no-one seems to know what an economy will look like in a mainly solar powered, wind turbine world. This is because solar panels and small wind turbines, which have a lifetime of decades, on the roof of every self-sustaining energy household does not easily fit the current corporate mine/power company/consumer model for supplying energy.
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michael sweet at 22:24 PM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Rob and William,
Why worry about Bangladesh when there are so many problems in the USA (or Australia if you live there). Miami is designing new sewers to attempt to keep high tide out of the city center. This will work as long as it never rains during high tide. Beach nurishment costs hundreds of millions of dollars each year in the USA. Much of that work is required because of sea level rise. As sea level rise increases it will become impossible to protect the beaches. The only question is how long before low lying areas are no longer defensible. Already inland states complain that they do not want to subsidize insurance rates anymore. If insurance goes to market rates the Florida real estate market will plummet.
China would not have agreed to build out renewables if they were not suffering through choking smog. Reports of children with lung cancer from the smog are common. Reports of Companies installing solar power in India because fossil energy is unreliable are also common. For homes in many developing countries solar is the only choice, no grid exists. You are claiming that they will be better off building two systems. First a fossil grid and then a renewable grid. Why pay twice for the same service? They will save money by building the renewable grid first.
Texas would not be the state with the most wind energy installed in the USA if wind was not the cheapest way to generate energy. The argument about baseload is a red herring. Actual economic studies show that renewables can provide baseload power. Currently utilities subsidize night time rates because they have excess baseload they cannot use.
William, your argument amounts to claiming that people are too stupid to be able to build out renewables. What do you expect civilizations in the future to do after all the fossil fuel has been burned?? Perhaps they will be smarter than we are. That time is not so far in the future. China and India already have difficulty sourcing their coal. Should we wait for all the carbon to be gone before we implement the replacement?
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william11409 at 21:44 PM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
No, Rob Painting, I wasn't "just trolling". Why would you make such a comment? Do people from the developing world post here? It is true that Renewables are becoming cheaper than fossil fuels but are you suggesting that developing countries should rely on renewables as the sole source of their energy supply? Surely not, for, as yet, renewables do not supply the constant baseload power required to develop an economy. And do renewables provide the cheap transport options that oil does?
I was trying to look at the position of the developing world through unbiased eyes not through the prism of the privileged Westerner. Perhaps it is that you refer to as trolling. And on that, my thanks to gac73@ 24 for the comment "I highly doubt that William is a troll for merely expressing his point of view". It is refeshing.
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Rob Painting at 20:15 PM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Fossil fuels fail on cost. They are prohibitively expensive compared to renewable forms of energy even if one excludes all the many lives lost each year to particulate pollution, and the medical cost of treating those that survive, because fossil fuels are warming the atmosphere and oceans and are causing seawater to become corrosive. Furthermore, rising sea level will drown many of the poor island states and nations such as Bangladesh. These are costs that must be borne at some stage, and pretending that they don't exist isn't a particulatrly convincing argument.
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gac73 at 19:49 PM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
@Rob re William
Fossil fuel is abundant and cheap. It is affordable for third world countries that must lift the living standards of empoverished communities.
Renewables are at this point unreliable, expensive and costly to maintain on a scale required to provide energy to hundreds of millions of people.
Fossil fuels are supporting the exponential economic growth in China and has lifted millions out of abject poverty.
Until renewable energy can be obtained as cheaply or at lower cost, fossil fuels will be the playform that continues to lift hundreds of millions out of poverty.
I highly doubt that William is a troll for merely expressing his point of view.
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Rob Painting at 19:22 PM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Why would such energy need to be in the form of fossil fuels? Or are you just trolling?
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william11409 at 17:55 PM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Unfortunately those who are most affected both by climate change and who are most affected by the lack of the cheap and reliable power that fossil fuels supply, are not represented at this web site. Comments made here are exclusively from those with comfortable lives, probably (but by no means definitely) economically relatively untroubled and who owe their comfortablr lives to the cheap and reliable power that their society has enjoyed from the burning fossil fuels. The discussions above on socio-economic problems and differences are laughable in the context of the terrible problems faced by so very many in the world who lack access to clean water, medical care, sufficient food, education and all of the other trappings of life we in the West, take not only for granted but as our God given right. These people live in low emissions societies but would welcome without any question the advantages they could get from the cheap, reliable energy provided by burning fossil fuel. I would be very, very interested in posts from those in these societies.
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Trevor_S at 12:50 PM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
I approached this a little differently some 5 years ago and thought well, I need to live this life if I expect others to. No one pays attention to obesity advice off an obesie physician, for example. So we did. We moved to a milder climate (adaption will ensure migration is necessary), we reducued our emissons by living off the grid, reduced our emissions by not flying for holidays, not driving, not owning a meat eating pet, cutting back on meat comsumption and growing lots of our own produce. I gave up my job, enforced penury does marvels for comsumption reduction. At first I thought look at all I am giving up and that's exacty why people don't want to move to a low carbon life. It's taken me years to realise everything I have gained.
What I do know now after living an ultra low emissions lifestyle, is that the people understand and accept the science are the problem, they refuse to mitigate, blaming others (politicans, business etc) for their own profligate emissions.
We have not yet begun to counternace the changes we need to make, Ted Trainer aside, and it's already to late. Until people actually start living a low emssions lifestyle, engaging with freinds and peers about why and voting only for politicans who are serious about climate change, we will never get anywhere in regards emissions reduction, just more yak yak.
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denisaf at 11:48 AM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Unfortunately this is an anthropcentric discussion that is misleading about what sound decisions can now be made by people. the reality is that technolgical systems do the work, positive and negative. The objective to 'avoid or minimize destruction of ecosystems' does not take into account the fact that industrialized civilization is irrevocably destorying ecosystems at a high rate. Irreversible climate change is already under way. The best we can do is make smart decisions about the use of technolgical systems to mitigate or adapt to what is happening. But, for example, closing down coal-fired power stations will not be a popular decision. The discussion about 'climate sensitivity' presumes people can make sound decisions even when they do not understand the stark reality. The discussion of 'survival of the human species' does not take into account the irreversible aging of the vast infrastructure that provides the goods and services that society has become so dependent on. What will people decide to do when, for example, the grid can no longer supply electricity and fuel for cars, airliners and ships runs out?
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gac73 at 11:43 AM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
@Moderator
I respectfully accept the warning regarding the struck out statement above.
But it doesn't change the fact that there are those who seek to exploit current circumstances on both sides of the arguement.
Perhaps I should have chosen my words with a little more precision.
The point I made above is actually neutral, neither for or against the science of anthroprogenic catastrophic warming. The point that I am making is that the case has not been made in a manner which the majority are willing to accept. The majority are and always will be creatures of common sense appeal. Counter intuitive evidence is not something that the majority accept easily. So when there exists a common sense perspective, that is intuitive, it appeals to the majority i.e The Cambrian Explosion and c02ppm 5 to 22 x higher than today.
I am very interested in the science, which is why I am here on this site. But I'm not here to discuss politics or economics, despite my intense interest in both of those areas as well.
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - so, in other words, you admit that you have no idea what the carbonate saturation state (corrosiveness) of the oceans were back then. One thing is for sure, it cannot be calculated with only one known parameter of the ocean carbonate system. See Zeebe (2012).
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Tom Curtis at 11:04 AM on 4 January 2015Don Easterbrook's Heartland Distortion of Reality
Interesting to note that Easterbrook was still using the graph shown at Fig 5 to present his predictions as recently as Jan 21st last year (2014) (WUWT link). One feature of that graph not discussed above is the supposed "observational data". Looking at it today, I was wondering what temperature data set was usd for the graph, as it does not look like any I know (and I am very familiar with most). It turns out that Bob Tisdale has the answer:
(WUWT)
Easterbrook merely appended the UAH temperature record to very early 2009 from the peak of the 2008 El Nino. As satellite temperature records show much larger fluctuations due to ENSO events, that has the effect in his graph of shifting the post 2000 temperatures below those of the 1990s. By also appending the "IPCC predictions" at the same peak he at the same time off set the IPCC predictions upwards. That is because individual model runs will show El Nino events, but will not show them in the same years.
He also got a lower "predicted" temperature by appending them to the bottom of the 2008 La Nina fluctuation. That represents a triple offset to exagerate the predicted cooling as it incorporates the offset introduced by using UAH data instead of the simply using the NCDC data over the whole period, adds an additional offset by using the bottom of a La Nina event as a start year, and exagerates that La Nina event by using a satellite temperature record to show it while using instrumental record data for the predictions.
Easterbrook has not, to my knowledge, either confirmed or denied Tisdale's conclusion as to how he constructed his graph. The evidence that Tisdale correctly determined the method is, however, fairly undeniable as can easilly be seen at Woof for Trees (using HadCRUT3 non-adjusted in lieu of NCDC).
Each of these acts must be considered mendacious in anybody trained in the sciences (as Easterbrook is). Bob Tisdale to his credit indicates as much.
Finally, I dislike linking to WUWT or to Tisdale as both are woefully wrong as a general rule. As when I investigated the issue, I found he had uncovered the deception, I am compelled to give him due credit. That should in no way be taken as an endorsement of any of his other views.
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LaramieHirsch at 10:11 AM on 4 January 2015Don Easterbrook's Heartland Distortion of Reality
Also, the video you are referring to has been taken down. Do you know if there is any other videos of the same lecture put up on youtube?
If Easterbrook is wrong in this, I would like to know to what extent.
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LaramieHirsch at 09:48 AM on 4 January 2015Don Easterbrook's Heartland Distortion of Reality
Hello. I am taking a careful, close, and critical look at Dr. Don Easterbrook.
I really wish that, in this article/post, you would have first posted his global temperature graphic presented during the 2010 Heartland conference. Putting his claim at the top of the article would have provided a better starting point, and it'd have been easier to follow your train of thought in this.
Instead, you first posted a conglomeration of different predictions in your own model, which made it more confusing.
Nevertheless, the information is still here, and so I'll have to sort of start with my observation of Easterbrook's chart in the middle of this post.
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sailrick at 09:46 AM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Jenna @12
Like you, I am a layman who has spent much time learning all I can about the science. And I have similar experiences talking to friends, co-workers about climate change. You said your skeptic friends were also well equipped to debate you. More likely is that they are well equiped with all sorts of misinformation that they are practiced at using in arguments. Someone who spends 5 years at sites like WTFUWW is very well confused and willingly so. "Skeptics" arguments often have just enough "truth" in them to make them plausable to a great many people.
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sailrick at 09:27 AM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
"Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen."Albert Einstein
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Thanks to Jim Eager, Tom Curtis and others. Now I know the rebuttal to yet another skeptic argument that I hadn't heard of before.
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Cocoa Jackson at 08:19 AM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Appreciate the comment and context Jen,
you wrote: '...this evolving into a 'socio/political' discussion...they don't care because they are suffering from media fatigue...I guess what I'm saying is that the reasons a large percentage of Americans don't care about Climate issues are many...'
For what it's worth I agree with all your experiences and have come across similar mindsets.
What is central to all arguments is the understandable media overload as you pointed out. This overload was the prime strategy employed to successfully counter the international scientific consensus that tobacco was harmful to human health; and they still do in emerging economies as you are aware.
A strategy where the vested tobacco interest; that is employed professional lobbyists, dedicated advertising agencies, business or political partners who all colluded to create dissention, distrust and doubt.
Naturally because of diversity of levels of education, experience, age, family history, politics region etc.etc. means the emotive triggers this professional group hit vary greatly. I call all that 'diversity and variability' simply a group or individual's 'life conditions'.
This same tobacco industry strategy as you will have realised is employed on denial of the warming and acidification of our ecosystems oceans.
Realistically unless you personally are involved as a working earth or climate scientist who specialises, publishes and carries the credibility these disciples have; countering the closed loops of denial science is generally fruitless. Circular reasoning chasing denial logic works like that. As the individual or group caught is affected by the ability to focus. They simply get confused by fallacious circular logic created by the attack on the consensus.When it is understood it's the international consensus that is the greatest threat to the carbon industries in this paradigm shift in energy production.
That is; simply making others appreciate that deferring to those who are experts as working earth and climate scientist is the clever decision.
The interesting benefit in the exploration of the logic of deferring to experts is generally it unearths the emotive trigger hit by those professionally attacking the international consensus. This information in turn gives leverage to build on in any future discussions around the actual science.
However this is where greatest issue in my experience dealing with the denial in North America is and what I have labeled 'team support' for the last five years. Where the individual or group falls into the simplistic Liberal or Conservative stance. This roughly speaking breaks into two further subcategories. Those who believe in creation or don't. As the last Gallup Poll in North America found only 21% of North Americans believe the bible is a fable.^ So the challenge of all the diversity in religious ideology comes attached.
Once it is established this denial is due to political and or religious ideology. Then it is a matter of getting the individual to understand what their position is.It must be said; the choice between ideology and science seems simple. But when others confuse science with ideology it gets very difficult.
As any skilled critical thinker will tell you it is crucial to be able to recognise personal biases, setting them aside and analysing any information.
No one will be forced into believing what we know are facts. It is only with all the interior questions answered or as the truism goes 'being honest with ourselves'. Without it, no amount of logic will convince anyone. So all we can sometimes do is establish an individual's biases firmly front and centre of their thinking.
Make them own their biases, rather than defer to their 'team' as their default position.
If change in thinking is possible it follows this awareness.
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Daniel Bailey at 07:50 AM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
"I can never help to wonder if I am to be part of people when one mentions insulting people's intelligence"
...my usual inclination is to reply,
"then stop saying stupid things when the subject of climate change comes up"
Which is generally unproductive in terms of eliciting a positive dialogue.
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ubrew12 at 07:35 AM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
jenna@12: perhaps, as this article suggests, you could 'turn' your skeptical friends by referring to risk. As in, 'what is the consequence of your being wrong versus the consequence of my being wrong?'.
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Dean at 06:34 AM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Regarding the "This isn’t about survival of the species, but survival of our civilisations" there was an Oxford expert survey on Global Catastrophic Risks. But perhaps somewhat suprisingly climate change was not in the top list of existential threats to humanity.
However, I think this survey missed that different problems interact with each other. Even if a couple of meters sea level rise is not an existential threat to humanity, the greatest risk with climate change may well be that it risks starting conflicts including use of nuclear and future molecular nanotech weapons. This could also very well be the main risk for humanity.
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Bob Loblaw at 06:00 AM on 4 January 2015Another year and glaciers are another metre thinner
What michael sweet said @17: I should have said "Dr. Inferno", not "Dr. Doom" @9.
As for why Dr. Inferno hasn't posted anything recently? - perhaps it's just too hard to come up with new parody that can still be distinguished from the worst of the bat-crap crazy denier sites that take themselves seriously. Dr. Inferno definitely has a skill... Read through the comments over at DenialDepot - there are readers there that take a bit to realize it's parody.
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jenna at 05:41 AM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Since this evolving into a 'socio/political' discussion (to borrow gac's phrase) I'll offer my .02 cents, for whatever it's worth....
I am part a close group of 20 or so friends, age range late 20's to mid 30's. As you can imagine, we have many lively discussions on a wide range of topics that directly affect our lives (jobs, healthcare, family planning, etc). We are a very diverse group, and not particularly Conservative, and don't hold back with our opinions.
When we do talk about Climate issues (which is not very often) there is a distinct shift in the 'atmosphere' (pun intended). There are usually 3 sides involved, the side (most of my friends) just roll their eyes and lose interest, then there is me with my strong arguments for action to stop Climate Change and finally a very vocal 2 or 3 friends that oppose any such action for all the usuall reasons.
I say all this because I hope this will represent what I think is really happening in the Climate discussion these days. I don't think there are many that avoid the discussion because they don't want to deal with the consequences, they don't care because they are suffering from media fatigue on this issue and could care less. The few that do argue have been following things at least as long as I have, more that 5 years, and are well equipped to defend their point of view. These few make it very hard for me to gather support, the follow the growing list of exceptions to the main stream pov. That is why I read SKS, in hopes of countering their arguments, it doesn't always work though! :(
I guess what I'm saying is that the reasons a large percentage of Americans don't care about Climate issues are many; apathy, studied skepticism, laziness, whatever. Let's not paint them all with one big brush.
Jen
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - I suspect your friends are likely to be in a comfortable space. It's easy to reject reality when it is not yet impinging on your lifestyle. That comfort will not persist given our current trajectory of fossil fuel emissions. Their two main choices will be to either accept the gravity of our predicament, and do something to help turn the ship around, or retreat further into their fantasy world.
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John Hartz at 05:20 AM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Is "uncommon sense" the opposite of "common sense"?
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John Hartz at 05:17 AM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Philippe: Like beauty, "common sense" is in the eye of the beholder.
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PhilippeChantreau at 03:06 AM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
I can never help to wonder if I am to be part of people when one mentions insulting people's intelligence. And then there is that newfangled "common sense science", a concept begging for definition if I ever saw one. Are there degrees in it? Like a scale following the sensibility of the common sense according to how many beers have been consumed before exercising it? I wonder...
Common sense would be to ask oneself the following question: what would happen to all the life currently existing if conditions were suddenly (say, no hurry, over 500 years) to become what they were during the Cambrian explosion? Interesting thought experiment that is. One could say that we really don't know what could happen, but that there was such a thing as the Cambrian explosion so it couldn't be all that bad, right? So we might as well party on, right?
Common sense, for sure...
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Jim Eager at 02:58 AM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Re gac73: The problem with citing "common sense science" is that it often doesn't really make sense of the real world.
Take gac's example of the Cambrian Explosion during CO2 levels of 2,000ppm to 8,000ppm. Notice that gac did not make any mention of how CO2 got that high, or the timescale involved, e.g. how long it took to reach that high a CO2 level during a period of Snowball Earth glaciation, and how long it took to fall to a lower level through the formation of cap-carbonate sediments during the Cambrian.
Time during which, as Tom Curtis pointed out, silicate rock weathering produced sufficient CaCO3 to both mitigate ocean acidification and to reduce atmospheric CO2; time during which marine life evolved to deal with a more, then less acidic ocean. Nor did he mention the fact that the sun was several percent dimmer in the Cambrian than it is today, which means it took a higher level of CO2 to produce the same increase in greenhouse warming than it does today.
It seems gac's "common sense science" doesn't take any of these factors into account, only the simple fact that CO2 was much higher during the Cambrian than it is today. And from that gac concludes that all was fine. Well, it was, but Earth was not quite the same planet that we live on today, was it? Nor was it inhabeted by the same species it is today.
So much for "common sense science," but then gac does lace his drive-by comment with the phrases "self interested politicians and gravy train riders" and "anthroprogenic catastrophic runaway greenhouse", even as he decries the socio/political nature of this post, so it's clear gac isn't really interested in the science anyway.
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r.pauli at 02:42 AM on 4 January 2015Things I thought were obvious!
Thank you SO much for this important prologue. This is key, and yes often overlooked.
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