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Russ R. at 08:07 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Rob Honeycutt @30,
Thank you for finally admitting that a Level 3 rating "does not need to have a specific claim relative to >50% of warming." That's spelled out very clearly in the paper's methodology.
But if Level 3 papers don't need to make a specific claim that humans are causing >50% of warming (and most that I've looked at make no such claim), then how can anyone claim that 97.1% of the abstracts find that humans are causing most warming? The paper itself doesn't even make that claim... it only states: "Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming."
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Rob Honeycutt at 06:34 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Russ... Think of the exersize as being like this:
You have a large bowl of puzzle pieces in front of you. The puzzle pieces come from several different puzzles. Your task is to find out what percentage of them fit one specific puzzle. That puzzle is the IPCC position stating that there is a >95% likelihood that more than half of warming over the past 50 years is due to human causes.
There are seven other smaller bowls in front of you that you can place the pieces in, ranging from clearly fit to clearly do not fit. And you have one bowl in the middle for pieces that do not fit either way.
What you are doing is conflating bowls 2&3 with bowls 5,6&7 in order to say that you can only build the puzzle with the pieces from bowl 1. This is clearly wrong.
The abstract you're presenting very clearly fits the idea that humans are the primary cause of warming. We have a problem with global warming and they are presenting a study that addresses one small issue related to that problem.
There is another puzzle (or likely several different puzzles) that can be constructed with the pieces from the rejection bowls that suggest that humans are not primarily responsible for global warming. The pieces in bowls 2&3 are ones that do not fit those puzzles.
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Rob Honeycutt at 06:20 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Russ... Cook13 was not attempting to only locate papers that quantitatively endorse the IPCC position. We were also looking at papers that implicitly endorse, as well as explicitly endorse without quantifying.
The abstract you posted is a category 3. An implicit endorsement. It's not an implicit rejection since it does not minimize the IPCC position. It does not need to have a specific claim relative to >50% of warming. Any paper that made a specific claim would be an explicit endorsement (cat 2), and any paper quantifying the endorsement would be a category 1, explicit with quantification.
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Russ R. at 06:05 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Rob Honeycutt @26 & 27,
I'm not disputing the rating assigned to the Bronson & Mosier (1991) abstract above. I just don't see how the abstract as written can possibly be intepreted as a claim that humans cause most (>50%) of warming.
"We're talking about the endorsement or rejection of the IPCC position on global warming. The paper is offering a mechanism to reduce emissions of methane due to rice cultivation. Why the heck would they be concerned about reducing methane emissions if global warming is primarily a product of natural variation?"
That's great... it's an implicit endorsement of the IPCC's general position. But it's not support for a specific claim that most warming is man-made.
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Rob Honeycutt at 05:20 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
"I'd encourage the editors of this site to do likewise whenever they reference the Obama/OFA tweet."
Then we can also assume that you would expect every "skeptic" blog out there to make similar qualifications every single time they mention the "pause." They must acknowledge when they cherry pick RSS. They must clearly state that there is warming in all the other data sets. They must also acknowledge cherry picking of start dates to present such a claim. And with models they must also clearly acknowledge when they are choosing single year baselines when comparing models to surface temps.
I could provide you a list a mile long where "skeptics" are vastly more egregious in their presentations of information. But, I don't need to really do that because all you have to do is go to the "Most Used Myths" section of SkS in the left side column of this webpage.
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Rob Honeycutt at 05:07 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
And, btw, your interpretation is clearly incorrect.
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Rob Honeycutt at 05:05 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Russ @23... (sigh)
1) Only categories 1 and 7 quantify.
2) Ask yourself this question: Does this paper minimise human contribution relative to the IPCC position?
We're talking about the endorsement or rejection of the IPCC position on global warming. The paper is offering a mechanism to reduce emissions of methane due to rice cultivation. Why the heck would they be concerned about reducing methane emissions if global warming is primarily a product of natural variation?
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Russ R. at 05:00 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Andy Skuce,
Thank you. I hadn't previously seen your blog or that post. I stand corrected.
Good on you for making that distinction.
I'd encourage the editors of this site to do likewise whenever they reference the Obama/OFA tweet.
Moderator Response:[JH] Your recommendation has been duely noted — multiple times in fact. Any future posts by you that repeat your recommendtion will be summarily dismissed. Enough already!
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franklefkin at 04:56 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
ubrew12 @18,
The reason for the uptake in spending for alternative fuels at that time was due to oil embargos (and general instability of supply) from OPEC nations, not due to any concern over climate change.
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Russ R. at 04:52 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Rob Honeycutt @15,
" No one participating in the rating of abstracts did their ratings as you're stating. Nor did any of the author self-ratings get applied that way."
Alright then. Let's be very specific about how abstracts were rated.
Consider the following abstract to the Level 3 rated paper Effect Of Encapsulated Calcium Carbide On Dinitrogen, Nitrous-oxide, Methane, And Carbon-dioxide Emissions From Flooded Rice, Bronson & Mosier (1991):
"The efficiency of N use in flooded rice is usually low, chiefly due to gaseous losses. Emission of CH4, a gas implicated in global warming, can also be substantial in flooded rice. In a greenhouse study, the nitrification inhibitor encapsulated calcium carbide (a slow-release source of acetylene) was added with 75, 150, and 225 mg of 75 atom % 15N urea-N to flooded pots containing 18-day-old rice (Oryza sativa L.) plants. Urea treatments without calcium carbide were included as controls. After the application of encapsulated calcium carbide, 3.6 μg N2, 12.4 μg N2O-N, and 3.6 mg CH4 were emitted per pot in 30 days. Without calcium carbide, 3.0 mg N2, 22.8 μg N2O-N, and 39.0 mg CH4 per pot were emitted during the same period. The rate of N added had a positive effect on N2 and N2O emissions, but the effect on CH4 emissions varied with time. Carbon dioxide emissions were lower with encapsulated calcium carbide than without. The use of encapsulated calcium carbide appears effective in eliminating N2 losses, and in minimizing emissions of the “greenhouse gases” N2O and CH4 in flooded rice."
I've bolded the only the specific references to climate change. The authors are very clear in pointing out that N2O and CH4, which are released from rice growing, are greenhouse gases.
They discuss CO2, another GHG, but without any mention of its warming contribution, and they do so in the same manner as N2, which has no warming potential.
From the above acknowledgement that CH4 and N2O are GHGs, and that rice growing releases these gases, one can conclude that some warming must be manmade. But the paper makes no quantification of how much of the total observed warming is manmade, and therefore can't possibly be taken as an endorsement that most warming is human caused.
So unless I'm mistaken, this abstract fits into the category of endorsing the weak position (humans cause >0%), but not endorsing the strong position (humans cause >50%). Nor does it minimize human contribution (endorsing <50%).
Is my interpretation correct?
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Rob Honeycutt at 04:51 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Russ @19... The challenge here is that the standards you apply are only applied to one side of the issue. You're more than willing to overlook egegious errors on the "skeptic" side but on the side of science the standards are such that no detail is too small to haggle.
Again, the OFA was perfectly justified in their phrasing because "dangerous" is clearly an implication of the IPCC position on human causation of climate change.
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Andy Skuce at 04:47 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Russ: I've yet to see a single clarification from any of them [the authors] pointing out that the description of their findings wasn't entirely accurate.
Well, I did, in this blog post. I wrote:
...The paper received a lot of positive coverage, including Tweets from Barack Obama, Al Gore and Elon Musk. (They didn’t always get the details quite right: our survey was of the literature, not of scientists’ opinions and we had nothing to say about how dangerous climate change would be.)
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Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Russ R. - That Obama tweet may have overstated Cook et al, but is in essence correct. The consensus in climate science is that recent climate change is overwhelmingly identified as anthropogenic in cause, and furthermore (as per AAR5 on Impacts) there is a consensus that climate change will have significant impacts that while a value judgement can quite reasonably be described as "dangerous".
Unless you think there is support for a consensus that the impacts of climate change won't be expensive, disruptive, and/or harmful. In which case I would expect some references thereof.
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Russ R. at 04:22 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Rob Honeycutt @,
"My point was that, it's not unjustified for OFA to make such a statement. It was a tweet after all, not an official presidential memorandum."
And I agree with you on this... as I wrote above: "It's understandable if a third party (Obama/OFA) mistakenly misrepresents a study's findings."
I'm not faulting them at all for what's likely an honest mistake in a non-official social media tweet.
But the authors of the study certainly know better and should't knowingly perpetuate misrepresentations of their findings. I'm sorry for being repetitive on this point, but the authors repeatedly link to and promote the Obama/OFA tweet (as in this post), and I've yet to see a single clarification from any of them pointing out that the description of their findings wasn't entirely accurate.
We'll just have to agree to disagree on what standards we expect.
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ubrew12 at 03:50 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Composer99@10: yes, of course, I see that now.
Stephen Baines@17: assuming the policy response was driven by scientific consensus (or, at least, authoritative scientific concern) then the fact that Lyndon Johnson felt compelled to address Congress on this issue in 1965 is compelling. Here is US federal spending on renewable energy, 1975-2005 (in 2005 dollars)
I think a substantial impetus behind those policy decisions, 1975-1980, was concern over Climate Change (with a change in administration the process shifted back to favoring fossil fuels). And I think that concern reflected the Scientific consensus of its day.
On policy, the consensus among experts matters, and so does its history for those left picking up the pieces of 'what went wrong'. To take another example: if you have to delay the invasion of a country to search for WMD, to give the weapons inspectors already in the country time to pack up and leave, something in your information stream has gone horribly awry. 'What did you know, and when did you know it' becomes more than academic, in that case.
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Stephen Baines at 03:19 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
"If Cook etal are casting about for another project, it would be fun to determine through abstracts just how long this overwhelming consensus has existed. I'm guessing, since around 1980."
If I remember rightly, different elements of the consensus have emerged at different times. Consensus about the greenhouse mechanisms was probably the 50-60s. Consensus about CO2 increase and the human cause of it was early-mid 60's. Consensus about the effect of how increasing GHGs worked within climate models with various feedbacks and spatial features was late 70s-early 80s. That was the state of the game when I was a grad student.
Temperature change was not really clear until the late 80s, and some I knew and respected at the time argued it wasn't really certain that change was above natural variation even then (they did not agree with Hansen — we sometimes forget the level of unertainty at the time). So I would say consensus really developed on that front in the 90s when temp change became clear in a number of ways. The rest of the time has just been making sure other hypotheses (solar radiation etc) aren't really responsible, and detailing responses to make sure they agree with the GHG predictions. The UAH satellite fiasco probably extended the debate a bit, so it depends on what you mean by consensus.
The thing that really absolutely nailed it on for me was the fact that you simply could not get a climate model to give you the observed temperature change withuot including greenhouse gases. Interestingly, I always found this convincing for the very reason AGW skeptics find models unconvincing. If you can't get a climate model, with all the complex processes, approximations and feedbacks involved, to reproduce observed change in global temps, then that almost certainly really rules out natural causes as a possible factor. In other words, I always focused on the negative result in those papers, which to me is very convincing, especially since natural causes could explain a lot of the climate variations early in the 20th century.
Anyway, the development of consensus around complicated topics like AGW is always peicemeal and complex. It would be so cool to really map that out empirically through time, but it would take quite a bit of work!
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John Hartz at 03:15 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Moderation Comment:
All: Given the SkS Comments Policy's prohibition against dogpiling, I hereby designate Rob Honeycutt as the official responder to Russ R on this thread.
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Rob Honeycutt at 02:58 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Russ @12... No one participating in the rating of abstracts did their ratings as you're stating. Nor did any of the author self-ratings get applied that way.
Once again, this is a case of deniers attempting to reframe the study in a way that deliberately misinterprets the paper.
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Rob Honeycutt at 02:55 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Russ... My point was that, it's not unjustified for OFA to make such a statement. It was a tweet after all, not an official presidential memorandum.
On a business-as-usual path, per the IPCC position (which Cook13 was referencing), climate change is very likely to be dangerous. Cook13 did not test for "dangerous" but it's perfectly rational to infer that position based on IPCC reports, the APS statement, NAS statements, etc.
Spoken/written language is not math. You cannot apply mathematical precision to words. There is no need to issue a correction for the use of the word "dangerous" because, if we do not take action, climate change is very dangerous. The OFA was making broader, and perfectly justifiable, inferences in their use of language.
The other thing I would note is, the issue of the OFA tweet always comes up as a distraction to the overall point of Cook13. There is a misperception in the general population relative to how certain science is about human causation for climate change. The exact phrasing of a single tweet does absolutely nothing to address or respond to that issue.
Here's what keeps happening. "Skeptics" (a term I'm getting very tired of using because deniers are clearly not being skeptical at all) jump on the most tiny nuances of accuracy in order to try to reject what is blatantly obvious to the broad scientific community.
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Russ R. at 02:08 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
JH,
If anyone can show me where the authors made any effort to publicly correct the error (the word "dangerous") in the Obama/OFA tweet, I'll very happily stand corrected.
Moderator Response:[JH] Please reread my previous comment. It's all about the prohibition of excessive repetition by commenters.
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Russ R. at 02:03 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Tom Curtis,
"The did, however, test the conensus on whether or not humans have caused at least 50% of recent warming."
Yes, and they found that 64 out of of 4,014 abstracts which expressed a position (1.6%) offered "explicit endorsement with quantification".
Abstracts that were rated Level 2 ("explicit endorsement without quantification") or Level 3 ("implicit endorsement") cannot generally be claimed to support the position that humans caused "most" global warming (>50%) if they only endorse the weaker position that humans are a cause of warming (>0%).
And yes, I understand that abstracts which explicity or implicitly minimized human contribution (<50%) are categorized as Levels 5, 6, and 7.
Including the Level 2 and Level 3 abstracts which only offer the weaker endorsement of human responsibility as >0%, with those papers that attributed >50% to human activity, and claiming that all of them endorse "most" warming is, in my opinion, a misrepresentation of the study's findings.
Moderator Response:[JH] If my memory serves me correctly, you have previously gone around this track with Tom Curtis and other commenters on the threads to other posts about The Consensus Project. There is no need to regurgitate those discussions on this thread.
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Russ R. at 01:31 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Rob Honeycutt,
"The fact is, climate change is dangerous on a business-as-usual emissions path."
The fact is, Cook et al did not test the consensus on whether or not AGW was dangerous.
It's understandable if a third party (Obama/OFA) mistakenly misrepresents a study's findings. It's unacceptable that the author(s) of that study made no effort to correct the mistake, and instead promoted and perpetuated the misrepresentation.
Moderator Response:[JH] You are entitled to express your own opinions on this website. You are not entitled to repeat them ad naseum. Per the SkS Comments Policy:
- Comments should avoid excessive repetition. Discussions which circle back on themselves and involve endless repetition of points already discussed do not help clarify relevant points. They are merely tiresome to participants and a barrier to readers. If moderators believe you are being excessively repetitive, they will advise you as such, and any further repetition will be treated as being off topic.
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Antarctica is gaining ice
dvaytw - Long story short, that title is based on a misunderstanding. Frezzotti et al 2013 is discussing the surface mass balance, which is the amount of incoming mass in Antarctica, comparing ice cores to models for that quantity. This is an input quantity only.
They are not looking at the total mass balance, the total change of ice mass due to the balance of input (snow) and output (melt, glacier calving), which show Antarctic mass loss.
I suspect the emphasis of that 'skeptic' title is due to a misunderstanding of that point.
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Composer99 at 00:03 AM on 22 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
ubrew12:
If Cook etal are casting about for another project, it would be fun to determine through abstracts just how long this overwhelming consensus has existed. I'm guessing, since around 1980.
Cook et al did look at the extent of consensus over time, at least back to 1990, as per Figure 3 in the paper.
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John Hartz at 23:45 PM on 21 November 2014Antarctica is gaining ice
@dvaytw 367:
For a detailed discussion of Zwally et al (2005) and similar papers, see Robert Way's article, New and Improved Ice Loss Estimates for Polar Ice Sheets posted on Oct 1. 2014.
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dvaytw at 21:55 PM on 21 November 2014Antarctica is gaining ice
I know someone in the comments section must've already brought it up, but I don't really want to fish through eight pages. Can anybody tell me what's the deal with the papers from Frezzotti et al and Zwally saying that in fact the Antarctic is actually gaining ice overall over the last 800 years?
Antarctica gaining Ice Mass (balance*) — and is not extraordinary compared to 800 years of data
Moderator Response:[JH] For future reference, the SkS search engine is a useful tool.
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ubrew12 at 13:42 PM on 21 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
"scientists should be talking about evidence, rather than consensus." That's valid... for Scientists. But the debate in the media and public venues is not a Scientific debate, it's a Policy debate. This is what the general public should debate, not the Science, for which they are naturally ill-informed. Indeed, as any denier can tell (as every denier has told you), a single Scientist (a Galileo, if you will?) can with evidence win the Scientific debate. But policy, as every Galileo will tell you, is made through consensus.
Doubly strange, many deniers will pledge fealty to the concept of 'meritocracy', and in the very next sentence, unaware of the irony, will tell you 'those Scientists' don't know their Science.
If Cook etal are casting about for another project, it would be fun to determine through abstracts just how long this overwhelming consensus has existed. I'm guessing, since around 1980.
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wili at 11:29 AM on 21 November 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #47A
Al Jazeera now has this coverage, too:
Cold snap caused by climate change-weakened jet stream, scientists suggest
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Paul W at 11:05 AM on 21 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
JoeK @4 & Rob @ 5 & 6.
While I agree with Rob's comments, the danger is not just BAU emisions for the future but that the inertia in the climate system at 400 ppme CO2 means that with out reduction to 350 ppme CO2 or lower in the next 100 years approximately we have lost the worlds coastal cities! It's not just a metre of sea level rise but 12 -25 metres at equilibrium.
What is not talked about anywhere near enough is that every developed country person needs to remove 300 tonnes of carbon from the atmosphere for all the coastal cities to be kept and the oceans from loosing fish. People talk about being carbon neutral as if it's the mark to aim for. That is the just "for now" mark to aim for but we really do need to stop coal use dead and then take the 300 tonnes Carbon per westerner out of the air!
The state of WAIS is that it's now too late to save it from sliding into the sea in the next few hundred years with out a drop to 350 ppm. That is the largest lost of our best arible land since the end of the last ice age.
The world economy and coastal land is closely tied to the survival interests of a large part of the worlds current population. The inability of a significant portion of the wealthy to end the funding of fossil fuels (at the rate that would pay for the switch to sustainable non carbon energy) is a real and current threat to civilisation for the next 10,000 years as a minimium.To end humanities civilisation in one ignorant generation of one eyed wealth is remarkably dangerous by anyones definition of dangerous.
The danger is that the current CO2 levels take us out of the Holoscene climate state of the last 7 - 10,000 years that has allowed civilisation to develop. The cost to make the needed changes is do-able currently but the door is closing. -
Rob Honeycutt at 10:41 AM on 21 November 2014New study shows warm waters are melting Antarctica from below
Same with the Hillier and Watts paper. Neither of these have any relation to climate change or changes in ice mass loss rates in Antarctica.
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Rob Honeycutt at 10:33 AM on 21 November 2014New study shows warm waters are melting Antarctica from below
Sorry dorje... But the actual Schroeder paper makes none of the assertions you or "tech times" claim.
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dorje at 10:19 AM on 21 November 2014New study shows warm waters are melting Antarctica from below
Dusty Schroeder, lead author of the article announcing the results, helped lead a team that used aerial surveys to create radar maps capable of penetrating the surface of the ice. They found two bodies of water under the glacier which interacted with each other, distributing heat in the process.
The source of heating is believed to be a tearing apart, or rifting, of the crust under the Antarctic ice sheet. This allows movement of magma and creates volcanic eruptions, melting the ice. Liquid water and geological activity under the sheet allows the massive feature to slip off the continent.
http://www.techtimes.com/articles/8278/20140610/underwater-volcanoes-climate-change-reason-melting-west-antarctic-ice.htm#ixzz3Jec2ZNjB
…………………………………………………………………………………………….
In 2007, oceanographers Hillier and Watts surveyed 201,055 submarine volcanoes. “From this they concluded an astounding total of 3,477,403 submarine volcanoes must reasonably exist worldwide,” said this article by John O’Sullivan.
Hillier and Watts “based this finding on the earlier and well-respected observations of Earth and Planetary Sciences specialist, Batiza (1982) who found that at least 4 per cent of seamounts are active volcanoes.”
According to Batiza’s survey, the Pacific mid-plate alone contains an incredible 22,000 to 55,000 underwater volcanoes, with at least 2,000 of them considered active. http://www.themoralliberal.com/2011/05/09/volcano-heats-high-mountain-lake-to-108-degrees/
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Tom Curtis at 09:30 AM on 21 November 2014It's cooling
pbjamm, if you follow the link to find out how to obtain your free copy of his book (it turns out you can obtain the free book by sending him $5 - and I doubt very much you will be sent the hard cover version shown, and suspect you will be emailed a PDF), you find a list of his basic arguments. They are in order:
1) Climate Science is a conspiracy for financial gain (maintained without evidence, emphasizes the amount at stake by confusing "border protection" with customs and immigration control. Perhaps that is an American usage, but I would have taken border protection to include the entire activities of the Homeland security department plus the military, on which basis his claims are egregiously false.)
2) It has not warmed. Based solely on RSS over the last 39 years. He makes the outrageously false claim that temperatures have only been measured for the last 39 years (news, of course, to the Hadley Center, University of East Anglia, NOAA, GISS, BEST, and the maintainers of the Japanese index, whose name currently escapes me).
3) Global warming has paused (based solely on RSS temperatures which he incorrectly also attributes to NOAA and NASA on the basis that those agencies use the data. If he is a scientist, he knows that his attribution on that basis is fraudulent.
4) The oceans are getting colder, for which his evidence is:
5) Arctic sea ice extent is growing (based on the fact that 2013 had more ice than 2012)
6) There is no consensus (based the fact that Al Gore emits CO2, and on the fraudulent claim that the Cook et al consensus is actually 1%)
7) Climate has changed before; based on the unsupported claim that climate change was a big factor in Alexander the Great's conquest of Persia (which is possible, but news to me), and the LIA.
He then goes into his own version of it's the Sun, based on mathturbation which is presumably in the book so I cannot comment further, except to note that it is not original (not even in 2007) and is definitively refuted by direct measurements of solar forcing.
Finally he finishes with the obligatory UEA email hack out of context quotations.
All these have been copiously discussed on SkS before, and most feature in the climate myths. If you want a more detailed rebutal, you will need to spend $5 US for your "free" book that even the pseudoskeptics consider a scam, but I am not going to waste my money (which is better spent on one seventh of a scientific paper).
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Tom Curtis at 09:07 AM on 21 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
JoeK @4, Cook et al did not test the consensus on whether or not AGW was dangerous. The did, however, test the conensus on whether or not humans have caused at least 50% of recent warming. Monckton, Michaels, and Spencer all reject that claim and are not part of the 97%. What is more, one of the very first "skeptical" critiques of Cook et al was that it redefined the target in that the IPCC "consensus" was that 100% or warming over the twentieth century was anthropogenic. That claim was made by Nicolas Scaffeta, and was the basis of his claiming that Cook et al incorrectly categorized his paper (which claimed in the abstract that the Sun contributed "as much as" 25-35%" of recent warming, and hence by elimination that AGW was responsible for at least 65%).
The fun bit is that those skeptics who claim that they are part of the consensus because they accept that adding CO2 to the atmosphere does not cool it also claim that Scaffeta's paper was incorrectly rated - which is an inconsistent position. The point is that both claims are rhetorical, and are not expected by their proponents to actually be logically cohesive, only to serve a purpose.
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Rob Honeycutt at 09:04 AM on 21 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
JoeK... The "skeptics" who've claimed to be part of the 97% are deliberately misreading the research. None of those you listed endorse the IPCC position on climate change, which is the fundamental basis of the study. They all minimize human contribution, thus they are clearly part of the 3%.
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Rob Honeycutt at 09:02 AM on 21 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
JoeK... The fact is, climate change is dangerous on a business-as-usual emissions path.
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JoeK at 08:45 AM on 21 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
Do you think that Obama's tweet was a fair representation of your study? I'm thinking particularly of the way that he added 'dangerous' to the consensus. I may have missed it, but I couldn't find the word danger in your ERL publication, or the Guardian blog post you linked to announcing it.
Does this matter? I think it does. Many skeptics (including e.g. Christopher Monckton, Patrick Michaels and Roy Spencer) have claimed that they are part of 'the 97%' on the grounds that they believe climate change is real and man made.
I suspect that if the consensus was 'real, man made and dangerous' then they would have a much harder time claiming to be part of the consensus.
To quote one of your critics, Andrew Montford:
"Differences over extent of any human influence is the essence of the climate debate. The vast majority of those involved – scientists, economists, commentators, activists, environmentalists and sceptics – accept that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that will, other things being equal, warm the planet. But whether the effect is large or small is unknown and the subject of furious debate. The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report shows a range of figures for effective climate sensitivity – the amount of warming that can be expected from a doubling of carbon dioxide levels. At one end are studies based on observations and suggesting little more than 1◦C of warming per doubling. If true, this would mean that climate change was inconsequential. At the other end are estimates based on computer simulations, which would, if realised, be disastrous."
http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2014/09/Warming-consensus-and-it-critics1.pdfIn short, these skeptics often claim that your study simply missed the point.
It may be that you're not interested in engaging with skeptics such as Montford or Michaels, and are more interested in talking to a wider 'unconvinced' public (although even there, I believe you have things wrong). Have you considered the possibility that some of the "criticisms from scientists who accept the science on climate change" arose because those scientists are engaging with a different audience, skeptics such as Montford and Michaels, where simply asserting that climate change is 'real and man made' does indeed miss the point?
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wili at 08:30 AM on 21 November 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #47A
Doh!
Thanks. Good to see that Slate is on top of it, as are you guys. Thanks!
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pbjamm at 03:17 AM on 21 November 2014It's cooling
Agreed but I am compelled to respond to my Dad in what I am sure will be a vain attempt to inform him.
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It's cooling
pbjamm - He's clearly a scam artist, there's probably little need to waste time on him, or to give him publicity.
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Composer99 at 02:46 AM on 21 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
topal:
No, John Cook is correct.
The majority of people attacking Cook et al 2013 are people who reject climate science.
If you really think "[n]obody rejects science when it is real science" then I am sorry to say you are, at best, extraordinarily misinformed.
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Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
topal - Nobody rejects science when it's real science??? Please tell that to climate deniers who say that CO2 isn't being increased by anthropogenic activity, that it has no effect on temperatures, that it's all some unknown long term cycle, that it's cosmic rays, that all of the science is a malicous plot by the Illuminati, etc. etc. etc.
Because those are people documentably rejecting real science.
Scientific consensus on complex issues is notable because we (the public) use it to evaluate those issues. And like tobacco research, climate science and consensus is under constant attack by those who wish to disuade any action on the subject. Which is both a rejection of science, and a campaign of disinformation intended to prevent public policy changes, by a very small segment of the population.
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pbjamm at 02:40 AM on 21 November 2014It's cooling
Thanks KR. I worked up a response and included Leif Svalgaard's comment. It is kind of long winded but there is so much wrong information in the article that it is hard to cover it all. If anyone is interested I can post it here.
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topal at 02:00 AM on 21 November 2014Why we need to talk about the scientific consensus on climate change
"We expected our work would be attacked from those who reject climate science. We weren’t disappointed." You mean "attacked from those who reject consensus as science". Nobody rejects science when it is real science, not just opinions of "scientists".
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It's cooling
pbjamm - Given comments from long-known denier organizations like JunkScience:
"We think he’s a scam artist trying to get his hands in your pockets but couldn’t see how he expected to do so — now he’s told us. He’s looking for ‘meaningful funding’ and he thinks the skeptic community might be eager enough to slay the catastrophic warming myth to fork over some cash"
or blogger Tom Nelson, who thinks that SSRC is a scam, and longtime WUWT commenter Leif Svalgaard:
"The ‘Space and Science Research Center’ and John Casey should not be relied on for valid research. I know of Mr. Casey and have checked his credentials and they are not legitimate. He has tried to recruit even me into his band of ‘experts’. I would not place any value on the ramblings ofthe press release."
SSRC is not a source to be relied on. Even known loons think so.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:19 AM on 21 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Glenn @36,
Thanks for the link. Interesting presentation.It is unfortunate that the writer did not simply state that the 'different Republican Party' needed to be developed to have a future needs to actually focus on development of a sustainable better future for all life. The Democrats also need to change, just not as much as the Republicans.
The current group behind the Republicans is trying to win through momentarily potentially successful but ultimately unsustainable actions like: appealing for the votes of intolerant people, gerrymandering, tricky voter ID legislation and deliberate mass-misleading marketing efforts. That effort is inevitably leading to damaging future failure.
The appearances of success obtained by those actions and attitudes will ultimately collapse because they are fundamentally at odds with the development of a sustainable better future for all life on this amazing planet.The population will inevitably become more aware caring and thoughtful, or its society and economy has no future. And as more thoughtful aware and caring people vote based more on their 'thoughtful consideration of all the facts' than their 'selfish impulse of the moment' the people who fight to try to prolong their ability to succeed from unsustainable harmful (unhelpful) actions and attitudes will fail more frequently.
History is full of examples of 'moments of apparent success' by those who only cared about themselves in their time. Humanity only progressed to a better future when those people failed to succeed. And humanity will continue to progress, in spite of the damaging delusions that can be generated in the minds of easily impressed people immersed in a mad mass-marketed consumptive unsustainable chase for an unsustainable 'impression' of success.
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pbjamm at 01:03 AM on 21 November 2014It's cooling
I am a long time lurker and occasional commenter here and I need some help. I received a link to this article from my Dad yesterday and it is so full of nonsense I dont even know where to start debunking it. I can find no outside information on the 'scientist' John L Casey. All claims about his expertise and history seem to come from the bio on his website.
The Dark Winter linked to reads like an elaborate scam to get money from the gullible and paranoid. It is full or random unsourced claims, about Al Gore, Global Cooling, and scams. Please help me out guys and gals. If there is a more appropriate "Help Me" page
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wili at 00:12 AM on 21 November 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #47A
It would be great to include something about the mega-snow event in Buffalo, but I haven't seen a MSM news story that includes GW in it, even though it has GW fingerprints all over it. Yes, lake-effect snow is common. But the fact that these extreme levels of snowfall broke records shows that this event was quite uncommon.
After a warm summer and fall, some of the lake temps were at record highs. Then you had the odd "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" effect that is becoming more common as GW proceeds, displacing lots of Arctic air over those warm water bodies...and record lake-effect snows were a rather predictable result.
If anyone does see someone connect these dots in the MSM, please to provide a link here. (And of course, if I've botched something in my reasoning here--not at all unlikely--please let me know that, too.)
Moderator Response:[JH] See the seventh listed article in the OP.
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Christian Moe at 19:58 PM on 20 November 2014Just how ‘Sapiens’ in the world of high CO2 concentrations?
Peru's point @9 about intermittency matters. Fisk et al's test subjects were exposed to elevated CO2 concentration for a 2.5-hour period, and the test was administered over the latter half of that period. Their bodies would have little time to adjust. That's fine for Fisk et al's purposes, looking at office-building conditions. They draw no conclusion about the effects of permanently elevated atmospheric CO2, and I don't see how such conclusions can be drawn on the basis of their study. As Marcin admits in @30, studies of long-term exposure would be required. That would have been a fitting conclusion to an article seeking to relate this study to global change.
Why the speculations about IQ? Are there studies that find elevated CO2 lowers IQ? Fisk's didn't test IQ.
I concede that my argument from incredulity @25 about naval nuclear submarine crews was not compelling. I guess reduced "initiative" could be seen as a feature rather than bug when you've got a tin can of young males confined handling the world's most dangerous weapons — in line with KR's anecdotal evidence @31. And though you'd care about anything degrading the decision-making performance of officers hunting and being hunted by other submarines, they'd start from a very high baseline performance, as Marcin pointed out @30, and could count on the other side breathing at least as much CO2.
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shoyemore at 18:44 PM on 20 November 2014President Obama's climate leadership faces the Keystone XL challenge
Just to re-inforce my last point:
A Dem Congressman will support the GOP on Keystone to "pave the way" for compromise
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