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Dikran Marsupial at 01:21 AM on 7 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
Warren Hindmarsh asks: "what is the evidence that you use to convince a contrarian of alarming warming?"
This is a pretty good place to start. Whether someone views this as alarming is for them to decide; that it is likely to be problematic and adaption expensive, is sufficient to warrant efforts at mitigation IMHO. Sorry if you find that a bit dull and reasonable and you would prefer some hyperbole instead, but it isn't my style.
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John Hartz at 01:17 AM on 7 May 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #18
White House Hangout: Commitment to #ActOnClimate
Phil Larson
May 06, 2014
10:58 AM EDTToday, the White House is hosting an event highlighting the release of the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment – a major scientific report on the impacts of climate change on all regions of the United States and key sectors of the national economy. The report was called for in the President’s Climate Action Plan, launched last June, to cut carbon pollution in America, prepare communities for the impacts of climate change, and lead international efforts to fight this global challenge.
The event will include remarks by senior Obama Administration officials and experts who contributed to the development of the new National Climate Assessment. Tune in to WhiteHouse.gov/live at 2 p.m. ET.
And on Thursday, we’re co-hosting a conversation with the Weather Channel about the current state of climate science and impacts and what work we are doing to make a difference. Use the hashtag #ActOnClimate to ask questions and join the conversation with these participants via Google+ Hangout on Thursday, May 8 at 2 p.m. ET:
- Sam Champion, host, The Weather Channel
- Carl Parker, Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist, The Weather Channel
- Kathy Sullivan, Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Dan Utech, White House Domestic Policy Council
- Mike Boots, White House Council on Environmental Quality
- Laura Petes, White House Office of Science & Technology Policy
Find out more about the National Climate Assessment, and check out some of the graphics and videos about the findings by visiting the website here.
Watch today’s event at 2 p.m. ET, and then join and ask your questions for Thursday’s White House hangout on the National Climate Assessment at 2 p.m. ET right here, or on the White House Google+ page.
Phil Larson is Senior Advisor for Space and Innovation at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.
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John Hartz at 01:00 AM on 7 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
Warren Hindmarsh:
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive or off-topic posts. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
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Composer99 at 00:43 AM on 7 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
To elaborate a bit on the characteristics of denialism, and how creationists, climate science deniers, and anti-vaccine activists share them in common, let me provide some examples:
1. Fake or Misleading Experts
Creationism - Ken Ham, Dr Michael Egnor (a neurosurgeon), William Dembski
Anti-Vaccine Activism - Andrew Wakefield, Dr Jay Gordon (*), Dr Vera Scheibner (a micropaleontologist)
Climate Science Denial - Christopher Monckton, Dr Roy Spencer (*), Dr S. Fred Singer (*), Dr Richard Lindzen (*), Ian McIntyre
(*) denotes misleading experts - people with pertinent expertise in the subject (e.g. Dr Jay Gordon is a pediatrician) but who are using their credentials to support or propagate false or misleading information, in the public sphere at least, if not in the literature (e.g. Dr Spencer and the Cornwall Alliance). (Some creationists I have named above might be misleading experts; but I'm not familiar enough with them to say so.)
2. Cherry-Picking & Misrepresentation
Creationism - claims about radiocarbon dating, this article showing distortion of so-called "No Free Lunch" algorithms, claims about the eye, or flagellum, making Charles Darwin out to be a proto-eugenicist, etc.
Anti-Vaccine - Wakefield's (retracted) 1998 Lancet paper (I don't recall seeing that one get trotted out as much since its retraction), some rubbish papers by Laura Hewitson et al (also retracted), claims about various ingredients in vaccines (formaldehyde, aluminium, etc.), the "Fourteen Studies". I could go on - maybe search the vaccine topic thread on Science-Based Medicine for some more examples.
Climate Science Denial - the "pause" in global warming (cherry picking a small portion of the surface temperature record while ignoring the behaviour of 95+% of the climate system), the obsession over outdated papers (Hansen et al 1988 and Mann et al 1999), Anthony Watts' "surface stations project".
3. Logical Fallacies
Creationism - false dichotomy (either their misrepresentation of evolutionary processes must be true, or God/an "Intelligent Designer" did it), ad hominem or similar argument (e.g. accepting evolution leads to the Holocaust, courtesy of Ben Stein).
Anti-Vaccine - ad hominem (what Dr David Gorski calls the "pharma shill gambit"), red herrings (appeals to the issues surrounding thalidomide, Vioxx, or, say, the Tuskegee experiments).
Global Warming Denial - ad hominem (pretty much whenever Al Gore or David Suzuki's names come up), strawman argument ("CAGW"), appeal to popularity (here's a good example, or you could bring up the Orgeon Petition), guilt by association (Donna Laframboise's book about the IPCC).
4. Conspiratorial Ideation
Creationism - In Expelled, Ben Stein alleges that the scientific community conspires to ruin the careers of those who express any doubt in the "scientific orthodoxy of Darwinism" (quotes used to denote sarcasm, not direct quote). Especially religious creationists are liable to discern the influence of Satan or other supernatural forces of wickedness in the widespread acceptance of evolution among biologists.
Anti-Vaccine - One activist, Jake Crosby, is famed for trying to playing "six degrees of separation" to try and tie pro-vaccine advocates to pharmaceutical companies. Conspiracy theories are also called upon to explain why public health departments & researchers would continue to support vaccination programs despite the alleged harms of vaccines.
Global Warming Denial - The allegations that the UEA-CRU hack exposed fraud, or that the subsequent inquiry findings were whitewashing. Any time the claim is made that climate scientists are engaged in a hoax or fraud for the purpose of securing grant money. Any time the claim is made that climate science is part of a wider "eco-fascist", "Marxist", or what-have-you plot to establish despotism.
5. Impossible Expectations/Shifting Goalposts
Creationism - I'm not as well-read on creationist tactics on this front, but I understand that creationists have made a big fuss about lack of certain transitional forms, or even set up impossible expectations for what sort of transitional forms might be found (e.g. the "crocoduck"). The shift to "Intelligent Design" as the primary public vehicle of creationism is a goalpost shift.
Anti-Vaccine - Despite its unethical nature, many anti-vaccine activists call for a double-blind trial of vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. Anti-vaccine activists occasionally demand 100% certainty of the safety or efficacy of vaccines. I have personally had an anti-vaccine commenter demand that science either develop the capacity to predict who would be harmed by vaccines (an impossible expectation at present).
Climate Science Denial - The "quantum" behaviour of denial as recently discussed on Skeptical Science is a perfect example of shifting goalposts. A good example of impossible expectations would be Judith Curry's "Uncertainty Monster", or similar claims that we just need to do more research for a few more years/decades before we can make policy decisions (because it's all so uncertain).
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John Hartz at 00:16 AM on 7 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
All:
I have deleted the recent exchange of comments between Adamski and Warren Hindmarsh. They were "off-topic".
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Composer99 at 23:28 PM on 6 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
Warren:
Dr Spencer is a signatory of the Cornwall Alliance "Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming", which states:
We believe Earth and its ecosystems – created by God’s intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence – are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting, admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory. Earth’s climate system is no exception. Recent global warming is one of many natural cycles of warming and cooling in geologic history.
The Declaration also includes the statement:
We deny that Earth and its ecosystems are the fragile and unstable products of chance, and particularly that Earth’s climate system is vulnerable to dangerous alteration because of minuscule changes in atmospheric chemistry. Recent warming was neither abnormally large nor abnormally rapid. There is no convincing scientific evidence that human contribution to greenhouse gases is causing dangerous global warming.
So, yes, Dr Spencer is a perfect example of the connections (and parallels) between creationism and climate science denial. Which you, unsurprisingly, reflexively dismiss.
(Incidentally, Dr Lindzen, one of the other atmospheric scientist "skeptics" has endorsed the Evangelical Declaration, although he is not a signatory.)
To further Tom Curtis' examples, both creationists and climate deniers also make liberal use of the known techniques of denialism (as do anti-vaccine activists): fake or misleading experts, cherry-picking, logical fallacies, conspiratorial ideation, and impossible expectations/shifting goalposts (I am certain that someone has linked to the Skeptical Science article describing them in a thread you have participated in).
Your platitudes about the virtue of skepticism notwithstanding, the simple fact is that if you read or listen or watch enough material produced by self-styled "skeptics" of climate science you find that they are (a) uncritically accepting of outrageously, obviously false claims (c.f. the Evangelical Declaration, claims about the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics, any myth addressed on Skeptical Science, etc.) and (b) appear unable to accept even the most preponderant, clear-cut evidence that climate research reveals. That's not skepticism, plain and simple.
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Warren Hindmarsh at 21:32 PM on 6 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
Dipkran Dikran I am evidence based, what is the evidence that you use to convince a contrarian of alarming warming?
Moderator Response:[JH] If your mispelling orf Dikran's name was intentional, it was a very juvenile prank. If you are "evidenced based"as you claim, you would double-check the spelling of someone's name before hitting the "Submit" button.
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adamski5807 at 21:10 PM on 6 May 2014Palmer United Party needs to go back to school on carbon facts
composer. on your radiative forcings, I thought methane was 24 times more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2
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Dikran Marsupial at 20:22 PM on 6 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
Warren Hindmarsh, true skepticism includes agreeing with contrarians when they are right, rather than only agreeing with people on a strictly partisan basis. Give it a try, you might find you make more progress.
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Warren Hindmarsh at 19:15 PM on 6 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
Dumb Scientist is that Dr Roy Spencer at the top of your list the same Dr Roy Spencer NASA UHA used by this site to debunk skeptical attitudes?
Let's get real I'm sure I could find 10 people who believe in, let's say, Marxism who also support warming. Would that prove a connection between the beliefs? Of course not.
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carbtheory at 19:01 PM on 6 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
@ 16, those numbers could almost support a psychological profile of some sort.
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Dumb Scientist at 16:28 PM on 6 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
A few dozen other parallels.
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Tom Curtis at 14:57 PM on 6 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
Parallel #1: Misrepresentation of the rejected theory including strawman labelling:
One of the most common features of evolution denial is the complete misrepresentation of Darwinian evolution as a purely random process. In fact Darwinian evolution is a process which takes random inputs (mutations) and results in highly ordered outputs through a non-random process (natural selection). Despite this evolution deniers persist in irrelevant analogies (tornado in a junk yard), and misleading labelling, calling evolution "random evolution" to promote the strawman view of the theory they oppose.
In like manner, AGW deniers persistently misrepresent AGW. One of the most common strawman misrepresentations is the lable CAGW (Catastrophic AGW). Anybody familiar with the theory is aware that AGW represents a potential of catastrophe, but may not be catastrophic. This straightforward misrepresentation in labelling is a clear, and persistent parallel between evolution and AGW denial.
Parallel #2: Persistent accusations of wide spread fraud and/or conspiracy by scientists as a means of explaining contrary data.
Parallel #3: Complete lack of skepticism with regard to supposedly supporting data. Examples from evolution denial include river dinosaur tracks, supposed C14 anomalies, supposed lack of discontinuities at sheer faults. Examples from AGW denial include the massive lack of skepticism involved in "dragon slayer" and "CO2 is saturated", and "CO2 increase is not anthropogenic" arguments.
Parallel #4: Falacitious (and trivially false) third law of thermodynamics arguments
This is nowhere near an exhaustive list of parallels, but they are striking and obvious to anyone who has participated in both the creation wars and the public debate over global warming (as I have).
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Rob Painting at 14:57 PM on 6 May 2014Past and Future CO2
Attached is a list of replies to some of the above questions by Dr Foster.
Thanks all for your comments on our contribution. I will try here to answer a few of your questions here.
#2. Stephen Baines – How should I best reference this?
We are writing this up for a publication but as with most academics I have a lot of competition for my time (i.e. teaching vs. research) and this will have to wait till the summer. In the meantime just reference the descent into the icehouse website where this originally appeared (www.descentintotheicehouse.org.uk).
#3. gindupBaker – asked about the resolution of the records. Certainly short intervals could exhibit more variability than is shown in the plots. Mostly though we are reconstructing averages of relatively long periods of time with the techniques used – e.g. thousands of years. The 7 W/m2 you are referring to includes the forcing from changes in albedo related to the waxing and waning of the ice sheets. The CO2 (and solar forcing) we calculate here is entirely consistent with Hansen’s calculations.
#5. Rob Honeycutt – This is a really interesting observation and something I had also thought about. Glenn Tamblyn’s comment #7 I hope answers your question though.
#6. macoles – has anyone got a handle on how long it would take to reach that equilibrium?
The slowest parts of the climate system are the continental ice sheets. These respond very slowly to forcing and will take something like 1000 years to reach equilibrium (though no one can put an exact figure on this), more if we are looking at melting all the continental ice on the planet, but that sort of order. This implies of course that if even if we stop CO2 emissions tomorrow, we are in for a long period of climate change as the Earth system readjusts to the new forcing. There was a Skeptical Science post about some of our other work that relates to this that you may be interested in (https://www.skepticalscience.com/Carbon-Dioxide-the-Dominant-Control-on-Global-Temperature-and-Sea-Level-Over-the-Last-40-Million-Years.html)
#10. Chriskov – your “hump” is portrayed inaccurately on fig.1. if you look at the more detailed Cenozoic reconstruction e.g. here.
Chriskov you have to be careful with what you accept as a reconstruction of CO2 here. What we plotted and compiled are the latest published proxy estimates of CO2 based on several tried and test techniques (albeit each with its own particular group of weaknesses and limitations). What you have plotted is a simple transformation of the benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope compilation of Jim Zachos (performed by Jim Hansen). Benthic foram d18O is a proxy of deep water temperature AND ice volume but NOT CO2. It is therefore very dangerous to use this to calculate CO2 as you are directly linking cause (CO2 change) with effect (ice volume and deep sea temperature change). Furthermore, the relationship between global temperature and deep sea temperature is not straightforward, nor is the way in which you deconvolve d18O into a temperature and ice volume record. For instance, to make the plot you show one has to firstly remove the ice component of the d18O (which is difficult without a 65 million year record of sea-level), then assume a constant relationship between deep sea temperature and global temperature, and then assume a climate sensitivity to radiative forcing (and assume it’s only CO2 change that is doing the forcing). This approach has its uses but our research is focused on using the geological past to try to independently estimate parameters like climate sensitivity from the geological record (e.g. see http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v491/n7426/full/nature11574.html). For this you obviously need independent estimates of CO2 and climate change.
The record aside, the reason for elevated CO2 in the Early Cenozoic (which is evident in our record but maybe obscured partially by the log-scale) is, as Chriskoz notes, most likely due to enhanced outgassing as the Tethys ocean was subducted below the Asian continent (that culminated with the Indian-Asian continent collision).
#12. Glenn Tamblyn – That CO2 weathering thermostat surely is a really useful thing to have around…
We couldn’t agree more. Though of course, as with all things in science, it’s not necessarily a done deal that silicate weathering is responsible. Lots more work to be done!
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Warren Hindmarsh at 14:31 PM on 6 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
mbryson please provide the "plenty of evidence of parallels between denial of AGW and other forms of denial like vaccine and evolution denial"
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Michael Whittemore at 13:38 PM on 6 May 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #18
localis, I pay a little more for my electricity so that I am supplied with carbon free (green) electricity. When I fly I pay extra to offset my carbon emissions, I also drive a small car.. But its a choice.. because I research climate change, I know.. But we can't expect everyone or even more than 5% of the population of the world to know anything about climate change or about a carbon foot print. My point is even if this 5% of people reduced their emissions, no one would even notice because governments are not passing laws that force people to reduce their emissions. At the end we all need energy to live, we cant be expected to sit around doing nothing in the hope to reduce our carbon foot print. Electricity companies need to go green so as everyone can live normally. Carbon tax that gives the revenue back to the poor is spot on.
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tcflood at 13:18 PM on 6 May 2014Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
Sorry to go back to such an old issue, but it the seriousness of methane forcing still conduses me a bit.
Both of the CH modes of methane (T2 and E) in the spectral region of Earth's emission are completely overwhelmed by the HOH bending mode of water. This seems to imply that the only region of the atmosphere where methane could have a distinct effect would be at the top of the troposphere and the in stratosphere where water concentrations drop to a few ppm.
Do models bear out that concentrations of methane well above the current 1.8 ppm (1) could have a large warming effect and that (2) this effect would overwhelmingly take place in the upper troposphere and stratosphere?
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mbryson at 12:38 PM on 6 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
Warren: There's plenty of evidence of parallels between denial of AGW and other forms of denial like vaccine and evolution denial-- just like there's plenty of evidence for AGW (in both cases, I recommend follow-up reading in the published, peer-reviewed literature). The moves are always the same: denial is defended as an 'epistemic fixed point', and all else is "in doubt". Real skepticism questions hypotheses (like the claim that AGW isn't happening and/or poses no threat) when multiple independent lines of evidence indicate that their contraries (it is happening, and it poses a threat) are much better supported. Your selective zombie skepticism is not a strength at all-- it's a (catastrophic) weakness.
(BTW, the 'C' in your 'CAGW' is not helping your case: it was invented by deniers and always comes with a sneer. If you want to be taken seriously, you should use the terms/acronyms actually used in the literature.)
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jetfuel at 12:02 PM on 6 May 2014The consequences of climate change (in our lifetimes)
How much will be said on here about the recent run-up in polar ice? It seems like my world got so cold this winter. 15 below zero on the saturday morning after my ski trip Feb 10th. I'm happy that 97% of the Arctic ice is back and Antarctic ice is above normal. But I know next winter will be another one with high heating bills. My house uses nat gas so that tempers things a little, but electricity per kwh has gone up 40% since 2009.
One thing I don't get is how the 33 cu miles of land melt on Antarctica can be the reason for a run uo to 13 million sq km of sea ice there? Seems like a drop in the bucket to me.
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Warren Hindmarsh at 11:52 AM on 6 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
Here we go again, claiming those who are skepitcal of (snip) AGW are linked to conspiracy theories etc.and are unwilling to "step up". Okay don't agree with Brandis but don't imply the skeptical view is linked to "similarities with vaccination and evolution" I notice you couldn't resist throwing in "alien abduction" and "conspiracy theories" as well. To be skeptical is a strength not a weakness. Even if you have a belief you should always still question it.
Moderator Response:[JH] You are continuing to skate on the thin ice of excessive repetition and sloganeering-- both of which are prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
[PW] In further support of JH's appropriate moderation of this comment, any mention of "CAGW" will have the "C" removed, replaced with a plain "snip." This is nothing but a dismissives' tactic of denigrating the robust and well-supported theory of AGW, and it will no longer be tolerated by this Moderator. Its inclusion has no place at all within the bounds of rational and science-based dialogue.
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One Planet Only Forever at 11:40 AM on 6 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
The,
Demand that consideration must be given to the interests of those who are not interested in developing the best understanding of what is going on when doing so would contradict their desire to be free to benefit from unacceptable unsustainable and damaging actions,
is an obviously absurd demand (except in the mind of someone who want to prolong and maximize their ability to get away with unacceptable behaviour).
The attempt, and ability, to attract popular support through such absurdity is also easy to understand, but it clearly is not acceptable regardless of its potential popularity.
Democracy and Society only benefit from the actions of people who place the developent of a sustainable bettre future for all above their personal desire for profit, pleasure, comfort or convenience.
Those who only care about themselves are worse than useless - They can be damaging - No matter how poular it may be to believe otherwise.
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ubrew12 at 04:58 AM on 6 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
"The debate is over when I say it is" just allows deep pockets to maintain 'the debate' long past the time for taking evidence-based action. Perhaps the public needs a better understanding of two things: 1) All science is debatable, and it always will be. Its in the nature of open inquiry. 2) Not taking action is taking action. So, from the point of view of Science nothing is ever resolved, while in the view of Policy, everything in Science is always resolved. You take action based on the information you have. You can moderate your action based on Scientific uncertainty, but you can't Not take action. Saying you won't take evidence-based action until 'the debate is over' evokes that warning by Confucius: "He who deliberates fully before taking a step will spend his entire life on one leg."
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localis at 04:27 AM on 6 May 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #18
Until enough of us are dramatically and obviously reducing our carbon emissions others won't feel any compulsion to do likewise. It will only be when the worlds' more conspicuous fossil fuel consumers start to feel some guilt and embarrassment about their life-style that there may be some hope of a better future. Those of us who are making a determined effort to reduce our emissions are but a tiny fraction of the population for the majority will always blame the government for their own lack of action at an individual level. Until the media and governments make a forthright condemnation of the denialist agenda I fear little will change.
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John Hartz at 04:09 AM on 6 May 2014Food Security: the first big hit from Climate Change will be to our pockets
The Editor's Summary of Lobell (2014) cited in my prior post speaks directly to the issues raised in the OP.
Predicting Responses to Drought
The U.S. Corn Belt accounts for a sizeable portion of the world's maize growth. Various influences have increased yields over the years. Lobell et al. (p. 516; see the Perspective by Ort and Long) now show that sensitivity to drought has been increasing as well. It seems that as plants have been bred for increased yield under ideal conditions, the plants become more sensitive to non-ideal conditions. A key factor may be the planting density. Although today's maize varieties are more robust to crowding and the farmer can get more plants in per field, this same crowding takes a toll when water resources are limited.
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John Hartz at 04:06 AM on 6 May 2014Food Security: the first big hit from Climate Change will be to our pockets
Here's another "hot off the press" article. This one addresses climate change's potential impact on corn production in the U.S.
How Climate Change Is Making America’s Favorite Crop More Vulnerable by Emily Atkin, Climate Proress, May 5, 2014.
Atkin's article is based on the peer-reviewed, Greater Sensitivity to Drought Accompanies Maize Yield Increase in the U.S. Midwest, David E. Lobell et al, Science, May 2, 2014
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wili at 23:14 PM on 5 May 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #18
The legislator who authored the bill outlawing indoor smoking in my state was himself a smoker. He recognized it as an addiction, and he recognized that he and other smokers did not have the right to polute other people's lungs.
We are indeed in the position of having to be 'slave holders advocating for emancipation.' Of course, it's good to try to free as many of your own 'carbon slaves' as you can, but that alone is not going to end the 'peculiar institution' we find ourselves inevitably participating in.
But yes, by all means, join me and others in not flying or taking any (motorized) long-distance trips unless it is absolutely necessary (and how often is that). Minimize or eliminate meat and dairy and car trips. Consume little and consume local. Encourage others to do the same, individuals and institutions.
But also demand changes in legislation and demand divestment from ff...
We have to be able to "chew gum and whistle at the same time." The merchants of death are certainly multi-tasking and are very well organized in their very successful campaign to make the planet essentially unlivable for our kids and for most other species.
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chriskoz at 21:26 PM on 5 May 2014What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?
wideEyedPupil@13,
Wehre did you source your assertion that "55% of Australian emissions come from Land Use Sector"? My data below from www.environment.gov.au:
Table 1: Australia’s Direct Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector 2011-12(a)
Sector Emissions (Mt CO2-e) Share of total emissions (%)Primary Industries 172.2 31.0
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 106.2 19.2
Mining 66.0 11.9
Manufacturing 66.3 11.9
Electricity, Gas and Water 199.2 35.9
Services, Construction and Transport 62.1 11.2
Residential 54.9 9.9Contradicts your assertion. Total Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (commonly known as "Land Use sector") emissions are only 19.2%.
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Michael Whittemore at 15:32 PM on 5 May 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #18
Trevor, I don't think a person needs to have zero emissions before they have the right to support the science and ask the government to do something about it. If everyone asked the power companies to supply them with green electricity (like i do) it would be a start, but that does not mean factors and businesses will do the same. Big and small business needs to be taxed to give them an incentive to reduce their carbon foot print. This is the same for everyday people, you reduce your carbon foot print because you care, but that is not good enough, skeptics need to be forced to care with a tax. If skeptics have a problem with the science they can do their own science or reference science that proves their point, until then a tax needs to be introduced.
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John Hartz at 14:09 PM on 5 May 2014Food Security: the first big hit from Climate Change will be to our pockets
@John Mason:
It's time for you to write a sequel to your excellent OP.
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John Hartz at 14:07 PM on 5 May 2014Food Security: the first big hit from Climate Change will be to our pockets
Here are a couple of "hot off the press" on-topic articles.
Wake Up and Smell the Soaring Cost of Coffee by Kieran Cooke, Climate News Network, Climate Central, May 4, 2014
Drought Causes Chipotle To Increase Its Steak Prices by Katie Valentine, Climate Progress, Apr 29, 2014
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michael sweet at 11:46 AM on 5 May 2014Food Security: the first big hit from Climate Change will be to our pockets
Klapper,
If you wish to continue your discussion of crop yields they would be on topic on this thread. I read the reference you cited in your deleted post. If the best that you can find in the peer reviewed literature is a paper from Bulgaria written in 2000 I suggest that you are way out of date. (Although Bulgaria might be far enough north to benefit from the warming so far). The citations that I quoted from the IPCC report are up to date and claim world wide decrease in yield of wheat and maize (corn). I am also unimpressed with your claims that you eyeballed the data and found a different result. Can you find more recent citations that support your claims?
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Trevor_S at 10:44 AM on 5 May 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #18
"People who campaign against slavery don't own slaves. People who campaign against smoking don't smoke. People who campaign against violence against women do not commit violence against women. And so it goes for almost all causes - except for climate change. Then, somehow, it becomes not only acceptable but almost obligatory for people who campaign against fossil fuels to burn more than their fair share of them."
"You have people who support a cause in the abstract, general sense, while acting against the cause in their personal life. The typical rationalisation is to view one's personal contribution to a problem as being an insignificant part of the whole problem. But this ignores the fact that the problem results from vast numbers of people making similarly insignificant contributions. It will be just as hard for any of them to stop and they can all make the same excuse that their bit doesn't matter"
-The Guardian Comments section
We have to stop emitting first. My parter and I are working hard to get our emisisons as close to zero as we can. How can we convince others to recue thier emisisons if we won't ?
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Tom Curtis at 09:32 AM on 5 May 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #18
I am very much looking forward to the skewering George "people have a right to be bigots" Brandis by Ellerton. His recent comments complaining about the infringement of the right to free speech of climate change deniers (who from 2% of the scientific literature receive 50% of the press coverage, and nearly 100% of the commentary in The Australian) is patently absurd, and yet more evidence that Australia has a government of climate change deniers - determined to place posterity in hock for the short term benefit of investors.
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Tom Curtis at 09:21 AM on 5 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
Klapper @15, it is worthwhile noting that of the 32 posts deleted, eight were by me, four each by Michael Sweet and KR, three by chriskoz, and one each by Roger D, Mal Adapted and GrindupBaker; making a total of twenty two (68.75%) by those accepting the science of climate change. The deletions, therefore, have been far harsher on those supporters than on anyone else. You (four posts) and Poster (four posts) are of course welcome to reraise the issues being discussed on other more appropriate threads. Therefore, while inconvenient, these deletions are not censorship. Jetfuel (2 posts), however, should probably not bother given that his post was both original and then respammed, was pure sloganeering.
Frankly, I would think Poster would be very happy to have what must have been very embarassing posts for him deleted from the record so that this moderation decision has done the "skeptics" a favour.
The moral from this is stray from the comments policy (by being off topic) at your own peril.
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Klapper at 08:39 AM on 5 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
@moderator:
This thread dropped from 46 comments to 14. I'm wondering if you are having technical difficulties?
Moderator Response:[DB] Comments not pertaining to the subject of the OP of this thread were removed.
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Mal Adapted at 04:16 AM on 5 May 2014The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial
Warren Hindmarsh may not know what a tone troll is, but I suspect MartinG does. They both appear to think that the scientific "debate" about AGW will be won with smooth talk. While it may shock laypeople, actual working scientists often dispense with urbanity among their peers. They can be unsparing when criticizing arguments that aren't well thought out or well supported by evidence. That's the role of "peer review", broadly defined. It's the process by which incorrect ideas and spurious facts are kept out of the accumulating body of scientific knowledge.
Despite what MartinG reads on WUWT, within the peer community of climate scientists, the debate over whether AGW is happening, what the causes are, and what the consequences are likely to be, was over by the early 1990s. The discussion may have gotten downright vituperative at times, but rigorously gathered evidence and careful analysis have led to an overwhelming consensus among scientists if not the lay public. For genuine skeptics who are just starting to pay attention, the consensus is concisely laid out in Climate Change: Evidence and Causes, a 36-page booklet published jointly by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of the U.K., free to download at the link.
With the debate over among scientists, policy responses to AGW are now in the hands of politicians. A seasoned politician knows (in the privacy of her own thoughts, at least) that a polite liar is still lying, and that some sources of information are more trustworthy than others. We should be reassured that the U.S. Congress can consult the NAS, formed in 1865 expressly to advise the nation on scientific matters, because if the NAS isn't trustworthy, no-one is. And when representatives of the NAS speak in their official capacity, they at least are careful to be polite.
Nevertheless, 163 members of the 113th Congress have made statements explicitly denying either that AGW is happening, or that humans are responsible. The reasons for that have everything to do with the money invested by fossil-fuel interests in lobbying and public relations. Complaints that scientists respond impolitely to persistent AGW-denial memes are just a distraction from the man behind the curtain.
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michael sweet at 02:59 AM on 5 May 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #18B
Jetfuel,
Here is a better thread for you to post on. It is on the topic of sea level rise. Current projections are around 0.5-1 meter by 2100. This is a combination of ice melt and thermal expansion. Ice melt on Greenland has accelerated substantially since 2008. It is currently estimated at 0.5 mm/yr and accelerating.
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Timothy Chase at 01:34 AM on 5 May 2014Global warming stopped in
1998,1995,2002,2007,2010, ????
Kevin Cowan's video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_0JZRIHFtk
... is private. However, it gets used on at least the two following pages:
http://skepticalscience.com/16_more_years_of_global_warming.html
http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-january-2007-to-january-2008.htmYou can see the image that indicates what the video is about, but when you press play the message "This video is private" appears against a dark snowy background.
Please feel free to delete my comment once this issue is fixed.
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jetfuel at 00:21 AM on 5 May 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #18B
"2003 and 2008, reports an average trend of 195 cubic kilometers (47 cu mi) per year.[8] These measurements came from the US space agency's GRACE" Wikipedia. They go on to say that most of the melt is at coastal glaciers. Again, .6% of Greenland's total ice in the next 86 years at 48 cu mile per year. The Great lakes added about 10 cubic miles of water level increase this past year. Right now, all that Great Lakes water is still 35% ice covered.
Moderator Response:[JH] Please provide the sources of the data you have cited.
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Mich at 23:36 PM on 4 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
Hi John,
I wrote about the EEG (green energy law) of Germany and the related problems.
Today in an ecologic TV-show (Planet E) they discuss about the problems with wind energy destroying important eco-systems (woods).
Here is the link:
http://planete.zdf.de/planet-e/planet-e.-6019322.html
I hope it's ok to post links here.
I guess that 99% of the german and european population want green energy. But we need to think before we act. We had the problems with bio-fuel and now with wind energy. Probably german nukes will not be shut down as planned. But we all hope to find a better way.
Nothing is just black or white. We don't have the same political bias as in the US. But above all in Germany there live very agressive "eco-fighters". When 99% of the population want a cleaner world, fighting is not the solution imho.
Best regards
Mich (and sorry for the extra spaces)
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Marcin Popkiewicz at 23:31 PM on 4 May 2014What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?
Thank you for comments!
I've fixed the download links.
We are (unfortunately slowly, due to the lack of funds and parallel work on other projects) working on a new version of the calculator, with improved interface (including adaptation to various high and low resolutions), updated data, improved algorithms, more options, calculation of energy and fuels consumption and more. If you have any suggestions, remarks etc. please contact me: marcin.popkiewicz@ziemianarozdrozu.pl
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jetfuel at 23:31 PM on 4 May 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #18B
What is the ice sheet that is melting that is causing sea level rise? It takes 2285 cubic miles of melt (over and above the replenish rate due to snow, lake level rise, lake freeze, and river freeze) for the sea level to rise one inch. Even at 150 cu miles per year that a SS video says is happening recently, that is 15.23 years without any replenishment. Being realistic, counting 2014 as a net gain in ice, etc, that is maybe only an inch in the rest of my lifetime. So there you have it. "Apex of carbon dioxide"
Moderator Response:[JH] Please provide the sources of the data you have cited. Also, please use the acronym "SkS" for Skeptical Science. Finally, please read and adhere to the SkS Comments Policy when composing future posts.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 15:59 PM on 4 May 2014Past and Future CO2
What is also striking in Fig 1 is just how wide the confidence intervals aren't!
That CO2 Weathering thermostat surely is a really useful thing to have around. Real neat if you like having a planet with life on it.
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grindupBaker at 12:50 PM on 4 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
mancan18 #4 synthetic oil can be manufactured from coal at a ratio of 1:3.
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grindupBaker at 12:04 PM on 4 May 2014What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?
We had a 6'4" 250# road cyclist in the Toronto group and he says he bought Carnac carbon road shoes so he has a huge carbon footprint. I'm at 20.06t on this so I'm average yet again. It don't quite understand my methods but I like its suggestion I get somebody else to shower with me (if I'm understanding that right).
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mbryson at 11:31 AM on 4 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
Just to return to the main topic, the phenomenon of polarization provides a nice extension of the metaphor of "quantum denial". Consider a beam of randomly polarized light striking filter 1, which passes only horizontally polarized light. If we then apply to the light that passes filter 1) a filter (2) that passes only vertically polarized light, no light at all will pass through. But if we then add a filter between 1 and 2 that passes light polarized at 45 degrees, some light actually passes through all three. Something like this seems to happen with deniers as well-- having entered the "it's not happening" state, they are often reluctant to shift to the "it's the sun" state immediately. But if we add an intermediary state (perhaps "CO2 absorption is saturated"), then "it's the sun" becomes comfortably available as a subsequent state. So contradicting yourself is fine, so long as there at least one intermediate statement occurs that isn't directly contradictory to either the starting statement or the final statement.
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michael sweet at 09:17 AM on 4 May 2014Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Typo: my previous post should say "warm the lower atmosphere and cool the stratosphere"
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michael sweet at 09:15 AM on 4 May 2014Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Old Engineer,
One of the basic predictions of Climate Theory is that CO2 will warm the lower atmosphere and warm the stratosphere. The measurement of this effect is one of the long term successes of Climate Science. Your reference describes the absorption of a small amount of energy from a solar flare in the stratosphere that is then radiated back into space as was long ago predicted by Climate Theory.
Your source states at the end "Some diehard climate alarmists will still say that in the lower atmosphere the action of carbon dioxide is reversed", acknowledging that this is the accepted effect.
If you read the "start here" button at the top of the page it will explain this and many other basics to you.
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Old engineer at 08:28 AM on 4 May 2014Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
http://www.principia-scientific.org/Current-News/new-discovery-nasa-study-proves-carbon-dioxide-cools-atmosphere.html
how does this square with what you have here?
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Mich at 04:03 AM on 4 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
Hi John,
Do you know the problems we have in Germany with "Erneuerbare Energien"(green energy)?
Electricity costs for consumers are rising. industrial companies that use a lot of electricity are being given more and more tax breaks.
Some people can no longer pay the price for electricity. Those problem are real in Germany.
Best regartds,
Mich
Moderator Response:[JH] Excessive white space deleted.
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