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nigelj at 06:51 AM on 12 July 2024What’s next after Supreme Court curbs regulatory power: More focus on laws’ wording, less on their goals
Eclectic @112
"Why is it that Libertarians, as well as Communists, are unable to look at human history and draw sensible conclusions? It's a mystery, why these doctrinaire flag-wavers can remain so blind to all the evidence around them. TWFA, can you explain it?"
Can I make a comment on this. I did a bit of psychology at university.
Psychological research indicates a genetic basis to our political leanings. People tend to be born either liberal or conservative. And people are born either preferring the freedom of action of capitalism or the perceived security offered by communist / socialist systems. Its not a rigid tendency, because people do sometimes change their preferences ,but something innate is going on in combination with environment.For some people the leaning might be very strong and this might explain why they stick to the beleifs despite the evidence - but im not 100% sure of this. Others may have some knowledge of recent research on it.
Its also possible that people persist with these beliefs even although the evidence says the dogmas clearly dont work, because they are unusually stubborn and can't let go of the ideas. This might be because they have narcissistic and very egotistic personalities. Changing beliefs is hard for these people because it means acknowledging they got something wrong and this hugely hurts their ego . Of course we are probably all a bit like this, but with some people its extreme to the point of being some sort of mental disorder (Narcissistic Personality Disorder). So they persist in absurd beliefs despite the evidence to the contrary, where the rest of us modify our beliefs. This obviously applies to some of the climate denialists as well. Im 100% certain this would be a big factor in why people adhere to ridiculous beliefs.
But I would say belief in absurd dogmas is probably not due to just one thing. Some people also adhere to dogmas due to peer group pressure and group think.
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Bob Loblaw at 06:36 AM on 12 July 2024What’s next after Supreme Court curbs regulatory power: More focus on laws’ wording, less on their goals
Eclectic @ 12:
In addition the bridge example, I was also thinking about the submersible that took tourists to the Titanic last year - and imploded (killing all) on the way down.
One of the factors in the design of that submersible was a proprietor that thought he knew more than the experts that had been building submersibles for years (and told him it was a bad design), as well as a company that thought it did not need to bother with fancy-schmancy certification of sea-faring vessels. As stated in the Wikipedia article I linked to above, the company was "arguing that excessive safety protocols hindered innovation".
The company sure found an innovative way to kill off its owner and a few paying passengers.
But that's not a problem. TWFA has assured us that the company involved - and it's internal "experts" - are in a much better position to be held accountable than the regulatory experts that said "that's not a good idea".
I always liked the Canadian Aviation Safety Letter's motto (which was sent to all licenced pilots back when I was flying). It said "Learn from the mistakes of others. You won't live long enough to make them all yourself".
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nigelj at 05:52 AM on 12 July 2024What’s next after Supreme Court curbs regulatory power: More focus on laws’ wording, less on their goals
TWFA, would you be happy with government agencies approving and interpreting the meaning and applicability regulations, if the governmnet agencies employees could be more easily fired for incompetence?
Or do you just dislike government agencies in general, and think they should be eliminated? If so what is your workable alternative?
I think its reasonable to ask that you clarify your position. I'm always open about my position.
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Eclectic at 05:40 AM on 12 July 2024What’s next after Supreme Court curbs regulatory power: More focus on laws’ wording, less on their goals
Bob Loblaw @9 :
Quite amusing examples.
Regarding ship safety, you've taken it A Bridge Too Far.
Haiti is a fine example too, TWFA. Haiti is the Libertarian's Utopia, for you. And in the opposite direction ~ only a stone's throw away ~ is Cuba, the Communist's Utopia.
Why is it that Libertarians, as well as Communists, are unable to look at human history and draw sensible conclusions? It's a mystery, why these doctrinaire flag-wavers can remain so blind to all the evidence around them. TWFA, can you explain it?
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Bob Loblaw at 04:17 AM on 12 July 2024What’s next after Supreme Court curbs regulatory power: More focus on laws’ wording, less on their goals
Ah, so TWFA thinks that private industry is accountable to the general public No, they're just accountable to making money, no matter how much damage it might cause to others. Some corporations and businesses take public impact seriously, but there are so many examples of company executives making decisions that made money for either their company or a select group of shareholders (insider trading comes to mind) or executives, with tremendous external costs to society. Accountable? Not when executives rarely go to jail, and corporations can just declare bankruptcy and avoid any legal and financial consequences. Were all the "responsible" people held to account for the Bhopal disaster? Some were, and fines were levied. Enough to be "accountable" for thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of injured?
TWFA has a very naive view of government. He sees nothing but bad. Obviously he has no practical experience in working within government. I have worked with many scientists in government, and most take their social responsibilities quite seriously. Is it perfect? No. But neither is "private industry".
"But communism" as a rallying cry was tiresome back in the 1950s. The "they are taking away my liberty" cry is just as tiresome now. Maybe he'd prefer to live in today's Haiti, where government control is negligible and drug gangs rule the streets? That's the other extreme that TWFA doesn't want to look at. Freedom!
What TWFA dislikes is experts that actually know what they are talking about and disagree with his mediocre knowledge and understanding. He appears to want everyone to be accountable to him - and him alone.
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TWFA at 01:49 AM on 12 July 2024What’s next after Supreme Court curbs regulatory power: More focus on laws’ wording, less on their goals
I simply prefer experts who are accountable for their mistakes, most who write and enforce the regulations are not.
As my history teacher always said, people get the government and outcomes they deserve, if you wish to live in a place like China or soviet Russia, with their master plans crafted by masterminds, worthless courts if any at all, protest illegal, suppressed or censored, and generally no recourse available but escape, just let things keep drifting in that inevitable direction because bureaucracy is a beast that gets ever bigger and seeks more control, as we have seen with the IRS attack on the Tea Party organizations and collusion with big tech to suppress government mastermind deemed "disinformation".
When you listen to businessmen in the private sector talk about their operations they speak revenue, productivity and efficiency, when you hear bureacrats they only talk head count and funding, no agency ever ceases to exist, it is assigned or assigns itself new missions and like all organizations seeks to grow and prosper as liberty withers and dies.
As Jefferson said, "The price of liberty is eternal vigilance", and I remain so.
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Bob Loblaw at 00:26 AM on 12 July 2024What’s next after Supreme Court curbs regulatory power: More focus on laws’ wording, less on their goals
Well, TWFA certainly seems to have tossed some strong opinions into the discussion. Strong anti-government opinions, to say the least. He seems to discount agency expertise on the basis that they "are presumed infallible" , "theirs was the word of God", "there is no remedy", "defer to the masterminds", etc. Talk about creating strawman arguments.
If we apply the same standards to the court system and legislatures (the other two branches of government), then surely they will fail the test, too - but that doesn't seem to bother TWFA. The courts and legislature are not infallible. They are not the word of God. There is no remedy to bad Supreme Court decisions (except by slowly replacing judges with politically-appropriate choices when the time comes), and they are certainly not populated by "masterminds".
But what does the OP say? Regarding the Chevron deference, "if Congress is silent or unclear, then the court should defer to the agency’s interpretation if it is reasonable". Should, not must. And only if it is reasonable, not unconditionally. And the fact that the original Chevron decision and the current decision both reached the Supreme Court tells us that the parties involved did have remedies via the court system.
What does the OP say about the effects of the original Chevron decision? It says "Chevron deference gave many federal agencies broad flexibility to use laws to address new and emerging problems that Congress did not anticipate." Two keys phrases there:
- "new and emerging problems". With no flexibility to deal with new problems, we would need to wait for legislatures to enact legislation to deal with every new situation. New toxic chemical? Wait. New disease? Wait. New problem in aircraft design ([cough]Boeing{cough])? Wait. Wait. Wait. Wait.
- "did not anticipate". Now, we will need a legislature that can anticipate every possible outcome in the future, and understand it well enough to craft legislation to cover every possible bad result. Not only must the legislature become experts in every field, they need to be omniscient. Completely able to predict the future. And if they can't, we need to wait until something bad happens and they can craft new legislation to cover the unanticipated. No ability for an agency to react and hopefully prevent bad things - just a system that will need to wait for things to become specific enough that a legislature will hopefully pass some legislation that will be effective.
TWFA gives us a couple of examples.
- An "expert bus driver makes a miscalculation and kills someone dear to you".
- Who gets to decide the bus driver is an "expert"? Is that driver subject to regulations to test that expertise, or is that beyond the scope of what regulatory agencies are allowed to regulate?
- Who gets to decide that what you think is a "bus" is actually a bus, or some new, unanticipated form of transport? Is the motor vehicle agency over-stepping its bounds in deciding that new thing is a vehicle that it can regulate?
- Will the "bus driver's: defence be that it wasn't a vehicle covered by the agency's mandate, and there is no requirement for the "driver" to have any training, licencing, or testing at all? That there is no requirement that the "bus" pass any sort of safety inspection? So there is no crime and no liability?
- "If you earn your living fishing and somebody decides you should assume all the costs of regulating yourself under rules you had no part in writing,"
- Which comes to the heart of the original Chevron case. In that case, the decision (as described in the OP) was to "require commercial fishers to pay for onboard observers". TWFA thinks that is terrible. The same argument could apply to "require fishers to pay for their own training to meet boat operations safety requirements". Or "require fishers to use a boat that meets nautical design requirements". The boat isn't maintained. The crew isn't properly trained. It's not as if boats can cause major bridges to collapse. What's the worry?
- If we extend the analogy to other issues, it would be unfair to require that chemical factories pay for waste water treatment that removes toxic compounds that they are dumping into our drinking water sources. Or that airlines pay for maintenance on aircraft to prevent them from falling out of the sky. Unless, of course, the legislature had already enacted legislation that identified every new possible risk associated with things like a new autopilot feature ([cough]MCAS[cough]) and had explicitly told the agency how to handle it.
TWFA says it himself: he dislikes experts, and prefers to live in a mediocre world.
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Eclectic at 10:52 AM on 11 July 2024What’s next after Supreme Court curbs regulatory power: More focus on laws’ wording, less on their goals
Nigelj @6 : my apologies for cross-posting with you.
What it all boils down to, is the need for common sense in the structure of governmental and legal systems. Recent court/legal decisions have gone against common sense.
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Eclectic at 10:43 AM on 11 July 2024What’s next after Supreme Court curbs regulatory power: More focus on laws’ wording, less on their goals
Nigelj @4 and TWFA @5 & prior :
Nigel, since you speak as a Non-American, it is likely that you have not considered all of the peculiarly American aspects of the situation. On that assumption, please allow me to recommend the viewing of a "fresh" Youtube video posted within the last 12 hours. It is issued by the LegalEagle channel, and has the appallingly Clickbaity title: "The Supreme Court Destroyed The Government While You Weren't Looking". (the length is about 22 minutes, after subtracting ads)
You (and TWFA) will find the video entertaining as well as instructive. They've packed a lot into the 22 minutes, about the SCOTUS reversal of of the so-called "Chevron Deference".
TWFA, I have traveled 1000's of miles by bus on country roads ~ and it sounds like you have not. I can assure you that everyone inside (and outside) the bus has a far better likelihood of safe travel where there is a single (though imperfect) driver holding the steering wheel . . . . compared with a group of judges & lawyers & their clients all fighting for control of the wheel (which would be bad enough on a straight road, let alone on a twisty mountainous road).
TWFA, you have not really thought things through, regarding government and the functioning of society. As shown by history (and common sense) ~ the system you propose would result in more damage & oppression to the Little Man (that's me & you) as we endure a rather chaotic courts system where deep-pocketed individuals & corporations throw their weight around (even worse than they do at present).
TWFA, your ideological objections might possibly be satisfied if Congress provided far more detailed legislation to cover the great complexities and ongoing changes of modern life. But that would require extensive & numerous committees of reviews & inquiries & oversight. And in view of the Kindergarten scientific education level of (the majority of) Congressmen . . . then they would (if not corrupt) require the advice of the very experts that you abhor.
Sadly, TWFA, that would require the large expansion of the Senate to 600 maybe 2,000 senators . . . and a far larger Lower House ~ maybe to 4,400 or even 12,000 representatives.
Be careful what you wish for, TWFA.
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nigelj at 10:37 AM on 11 July 2024What’s next after Supreme Court curbs regulatory power: More focus on laws’ wording, less on their goals
TWFA @5
Thanks for the comments.
I can see that there are potential problems with the governments agencies effectively approving their own regulations. It's better that congress do that function. I'm not sure the federal courts will be any better doing this than leaving it to the agencies but it appears that is the way things are going.
But writing the regulations is another thing entirely. Governments regulate the business sector and other groups to ensure health, safety and the environment are protected. Agencies of government write the regulations generally including consulting industry groups for feedback, in my country anyway. Technocrats with appropriate qualifications do the detailed work. This is entirely appropriate. Im happy with that process and its principles provided its carried out well. Then congress (ideally) decide whether to approve the regulations, thus effectively turning them into law.
I don't think the number of regulations matters. Its not possible to define an optimum number. What matters is if a specific regulation is good quality. If they are prepared by well trained experts then its up to congress (ideally) to decide wither they are good quality and serve a useful purpose and become law. I think thats the best way.
I acknowledge its possible to both under regulate and over regulate, but again its ultimately up to congress to decide whether some regulatory proposal is too weak or is petty and going too far. In my experience in New Zealand we see evidence of both types of regulations but generally more problems with weak regulations, especially when as a result of the approval process the recommendations of the governments agencies get weakened by politicians. However overall our various building codes and health and safety rules etcetera are pretty good, and reflect well on the technocrats input into the work and their expertise.
Self regulation where businesses regulate themselves is sometimes appropriate but mostly fails. So if you want to bring a libertarian perpective to this you are wasting your time with me :)
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TWFA at 09:22 AM on 11 July 2024What’s next after Supreme Court curbs regulatory power: More focus on laws’ wording, less on their goals
Nigel, you can appeal to higher courts, but if they are all required to defer to the unelected and permanently entranched regulators it has obviously been a wasted effort prior to Loper overturning Chevron. As to how many, it is probably far to many to count, because not only do they write the regulations but periodically reach back and reinterpret and usually expand their scope, for example the ex-post-facto inclusion CO2 into the Clean Air Act of 1970 as a pollutant caused cases to go to the Supreme Court where in a split decision it was decided in 2007 that the EPA "could" regulate CO2 but would still be subject to lawsuits, thus leaving the final decision with the courts and not the regulators.
There are almost 100,000 pages in something like 250 volumes of the Code Of Federal Regulations, all written by unseen and unaccountable people, revolving doors of experts who regularly pierce the semipermeable membrane between government and private sector, first feverishly promulgating regulations and then moving to the private sector to make a living helping others either fighting or complying with them.
The regulatory world is a living being with a whole economy and ecosystem of its own, like the mysteries of the human brain or the global ecosystem, nobody can claim they know everything that is going on, least of all the public at large, yet those regulations affect virtually every aspect of life.
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nigelj at 06:40 AM on 11 July 2024What’s next after Supreme Court curbs regulatory power: More focus on laws’ wording, less on their goals
Regarding TWFAs comments (paraphrasing) that leaving regulatory decisions to government agencies is unwise, because you can't fire government employees for bad performance, its all undemocratic, etc,etc.
Government employees can be fired in America, although its a difficult process making it hard work to fire them. So yes I feel that governmment agencies deciding on regulatory issues isn't ideal although its the hiring and firing process to blame not the agency.
But having technocrats make decisions has its place sometimes. Democracy where we leave decisions to elected politicians should be the primary tool, but sometimes it makes sense to leave it to technocrats. For example Reserve Banks are left to decide certain aspects of monetary policy and there is a complelling case for this. Namely that politicians horribly abuse monetary policy and can't help themselves.
But its probably not ideal that tecnocrats get too involved in deciding regulatory issues. It wouldnt be needed if congress did their job. How hard can it be? Review the issues and vote on it.
It should also be noted that its also very difficult to fire a federal court judge, requiring impeachment by the House of Representatives and conviction in the Senate. This actually makes it almost impossible and would require a massive wrong doing by the judge. So bad luck if the judge makes an absurd decision on one of these regulatory issues. So this is not ideal either. And as Eclectic points out if federal courts make the decision it will probably hugely slow things down. I would say the only real winners will be all the lawyers.
I do not live in the USA so I googled these things. Hope I haven't misinterpreted the laws!
Just out of intererst how many issues are deferred to the government organisations to decide? Is it therefore a significant problem? Is there any solid evidence that the agencies have made bad decisions. Not decisions you just don't like or agree with. Decisions that didn't work out well in practice because they were just professionally negligent or incompetent.
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TWFA at 02:03 AM on 11 July 2024What’s next after Supreme Court curbs regulatory power: More focus on laws’ wording, less on their goals
Well, I am sure YOU would want a court if your expert bus driver makes a miscalculation and kills someone dear to you. But when it comes to government experts they are presumed infallible, there are never any mistakes, especially when it comes to climate policy, and you have no such court, if they miscalculate and their policies ruin your life or those of your descendants they cannot be punished or fired, there is no remedy.
Not only that, you had no recourse when their regulations were written and enforced, theirs was the word of God and the courts and the people had no say other than public commentary for 30 days or whatever, typically ignored as the train has long left the station.
So, if you earn your living fishing and somebody decides you should assume all the costs of regulating yourself under rules you had no part in writing, or if you own a field that 99.9% of the time is dry but once in a while a huge innundation comes along and leaves a puddle for a few days and by some new regulation or interpretation suddenly becomes federally protected wetland, meaning no longer yours to do with as you choose, you have no say in the matter. You waste your time going to court only to be told that the court can only defer to the masterminds who wrote the regulation in the first place.
You want to live under a tyranny of experts, fine, I prefer liberty under the mediocrities, like Salieri I am the patron saint of mediocrities.
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Eclectic at 10:59 AM on 10 July 2024What’s next after Supreme Court curbs regulatory power: More focus on laws’ wording, less on their goals
TWFA @1 :
in a sense, it is rather refreshing to hear that you have such innocent faith in the competence of the judicial system (and of our elected representatives) . . . . despite so many examples of incompetence or malice. ( I won't mention details of certain egregious judicial decisions of recent times.)
Also, in a sense you are correct that for some matters, a non-expert opinion by a non-expert judge can be a useful way of deciding simple issues. This system worked moderately well 200 years ago when society & technology were simple.
For better or worse, we nowadays live in vastly more complex circumstances. Not only is there greater scope for Dunning-Krugerly ignorant decisions to affect medical & engineering & other scientific-based operational matters ~ but the timeliness of proper rapid decision-making gets destroyed by years of legal wrangling and multiple layers of appeals systems.
You really ought not to have a Court driving a bus, or flying a jetplane, or choosing the response to a major new epidemic. (And I won't mention political hot-potatoes like emergency abortions, etcetera.)
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TWFA at 03:00 AM on 10 July 2024What’s next after Supreme Court curbs regulatory power: More focus on laws’ wording, less on their goals
The courts have had to decide many other cases with technical complexity, social, scientific and criminal, I don't see requiring elected representatives to work harder at crafting the guiding legislation, conducting hearings with subject matter experts, including the unelected but presumed selfless and with purity of motive from these vaunted agencies, to be a problem.
Who says the best experts work for government, have not been elected and cannot be fired, and their opinions, judgement and outlook should always have priority over our lives? Separation of powers is essential to liberty.
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michael sweet at 19:00 PM on 3 July 2024Climate Adam: How deadly heatwaves are blown up by climate change
Nigelj, sorry I misspelled your handle.
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michael sweet at 18:59 PM on 3 July 2024Climate Adam: How deadly heatwaves are blown up by climate change
Nijrlj,
The articles you cite give grave data about human survival in these extreme conditions.
I did not see any discussion about farming in extreme heat. It stands to reason that if humans cannot stand the heat that farm animals would also be susceptible to heat stress. What about the plants? Plants and animals cannot all be protected by air conditioning. If farm animals were killed even once a year farming would become impossible.
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nigelj at 07:28 AM on 2 July 2024Climate Adam: How deadly heatwaves are blown up by climate change
The combination of intense heat and very humid climates is especially deadly as the humidity means the body cant evaporate as effectively to cool down. This problem is already increasing, and will affect very significant numbers of people in tropical climates. Related research:
www.scientificamerican.com/article/lethal-heat-is-spreading-across-the-planet/
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Justbe at 23:22 PM on 28 June 2024Translation #20 of The Conspiracy Theory Handbook published!
Thank you very very much for the fast actions, really appreciate the speed. The link works and it is perfect. Kudos to the translator too, she did an amazing job as far as I can read
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BaerbelW at 22:53 PM on 28 June 2024Translation #20 of The Conspiracy Theory Handbook published!
Justbe @1
Thanks for the heads-up! Not sure what happened there but the links should now all go to the intended translation of the handbook.
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Justbe at 18:09 PM on 28 June 2024Translation #20 of The Conspiracy Theory Handbook published!
Hello. Can you please check? The link to the translation in Albanian points to the turkish translation of the book, not the albanian one. Thank you
Moderator Response:[BL] It looks like maybe all of the links point to the Turkish translation. We'll look into it.
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Bob Loblaw at 04:45 AM on 21 June 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
janolsen @ 114:
(yawn)
Yep. The same collection of "usual suspects". Soon. Tol. Lomborg. Koonin. Those names pop up in the first few pages.
Didn't read any further.
Let us know if you find an argument that has not previously been debunked. Don't forget to follow the links in the table in the OP if the "argument" you find convincing relates to one of those topics. You'll be expected to provide an argument as to why what you are pointing to represents something new - and not just a re-assertion of the myth listed on the relevant SkS page.
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John Mason at 03:28 AM on 21 June 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
Re: janolsen #114:
I said in the original post:
"This same old carnival troupe is wheeled out time and again to spread doubt about climate science. Why? Because that's what they are good at doing, with decades of combined experience under their belts."
Your link makes the same point but in greater detail. -
janolsen at 01:53 AM on 21 June 2024Climate - the Movie: a hot mess of (c)old myths!
One of the themes in the movie seems to be that co2 levels and temperatures have been higher before humans were around, i.e. when other animals roamed the earth...They also seems to claim that temperatures have risen shortly before co2 levels rise, rather than as a direct result of co2 levels (though co2 is undoubtedly has a greenhouse effect).
Here's is "opposing side's" documenation for the statements made in the movie:
https://andymaypetrophysicist.com/2024/03/26/annotated-bibliography-for-climate-the-movie/ -
nigelj at 06:48 AM on 19 June 2024At a glance - Was 1934 the hottest year on record?
The following study published on researchgate explores the reasons why the 1930s were so hot and dry in the USA:
"Extraordinary heat during the 1930s US Dust Bowl and associated large-scale conditions. Unusually hot summer conditions occurred during the 1930s over the central United States and undoubtedly contributed to the severity of the Dust Bowl drought. We investigate local and large-scale conditions in association with the extraordinary heat and drought events, making use of novel datasets of observed climate extremes and climate reanalysis covering the past century. We show that the unprecedented summer heat during the Dust Bowl years was likely exacerbated by land-surface feedbacks associated with springtime precipitation deficits. The reanalysis results indicate that these deficits were associated with the coincidence of anomalously warm North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific surface waters and a shift in atmospheric pressure patterns leading to reduced flow of moist air into the central US. Thus, the combination of springtime ocean temperatures and atmospheric flow anomalies, leading to reduced precipitation, also holds potential for enhanced predictability of summer heat events. The results suggest that hot drought, more severe than experienced during the most recent 2011 and 2012 heat waves, is to be expected when ocean temperature anomalies like those observed in the 1930s occur in a world that has seen significant mean warming. (emphasis mine)"
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Bob Loblaw at 08:19 AM on 18 June 2024Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
OPOF:
Responding to one other point you make.
One individual may not hold those contradictory opinions (although many do), but as you say when contrarians collect their arguments from others and present them at their "conferences", publish them in their reports, or testify to Congress, they often don't care that there are contradictions. All they need to do is convince The Powers That Be that there must be a pony somewhere in that pile of [self-moderation]...
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Bob Loblaw at 08:13 AM on 18 June 2024Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
OPOF:
Your closing sentence - "...when evidence and reasoning do not limit the realm of what is 'believable'." - sums up the non-scientific aspect of the majority of the contrarian arguments.
Scientists disagree about many things. The scientific process for dealing with that is:
- Acknowledge that the difference exists.
- Discuss the differences (conversation, via journal papers, etc.) and come up with a clear understanding of the nature and root cause of the differences.
- This usually includes an effort to recognize where there are not differences - finding common ground that is generally accepted as being well-supported by evidence.
- Determine what sort of evidence is lacking to determine which of the competing explanations is more likely to be correct.
- The differences of opinion are usually in the form of interpretation of the evidence, or speculation. Things that are not directly measured.
- Determine a method (experimental, observational) where the needed evidence can be obtained.
- This needs to be evidence where one hypothesis says one thing will happen, while the other says something different will happen. You know: the differences.
- If the competing hypotheses all predict exactly the same outcomes for all situations, then the hypotheses are not different. They may use different words, but that's not enough to make them "different".
- Collect the needed evidence.
- Be prepared to drop your belief if the evidence goes against it.
Principles such as parsimony or Occam's razor apply when competing explanations can explain all the current evidence equally well. The principle says that it is more reasonable to use the explanation with fewer assumptions. It's a preference, not a Golden Rule. And when additional evidence comes along that can distinguish among the various explanations, the evidence will win the argument.
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:36 AM on 18 June 2024Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
Bob Loblaw,
Thank you for the additional information.
The BBC article I referred to in my comment @12 also includes the following:
"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says Africa is “one of the lowest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change”.
However, it is also “one of the most vulnerable continents” to climate change and its effects - including more intense and frequent heatwaves, prolonged droughts, and devastating floods.
Despite all this, Mr Machogu continues to insist “there is no climate crisis”."
To be fair Mr Machogu does not appear to also claim that 'climate change impact reduction actions redistribute wealth from rich to poor'. He appears to only claim that the actions keep Africans poor.
The problem is the way that contradictory beliefs seem to get gathered up into a collective of harmful misunderstandings. The contradicting claims about rich and poor both exist unchallenged in the denial gathering.
Political players with a penchant for benefiting from understandably harmful misunderstandings do not appear to care about contradictions between the misunderstandings inside their big tent, or under their large umbrella, of harmful misunderstandings. Winning any way that can be gotten away with appears to be 'Their Primary Interest'. And an essentially infinite number of 'contradictions' can be produced when evidence and reasoning do not limit the realm of what is 'believable'.
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Bob Loblaw at 06:08 AM on 18 June 2024Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
OPOF:
Yes, it's amazing how so many of these zombie myths keep coming back in slightly altered form.
The OP does include a link to SkS's list of common myths (https://sks.to/arguments), and lo and behold we find "CO2 limits will hurt the poor" at #67. In that rebuttal, there is a map of Climate Demography Vulnerability Index (CDVI) that shows much of Africa as being highly vulnerable. (Go to the link above to see details on the source).
...but you also raise another important "red flag" not specifically mentioned in the OP here: logical inconsistencies in the arguments being made. It takes a significant level of psychological compartmentalization to be able to hold strongly contradicting beliefs at the same time. As you state, how can action make poor countries richer and poorer at the same time?
SkS used to have an online list of contradictory "contrarian" viewpoints, but it became too difficult for our limited number of volunteers to keep up-to-date. Too many contradictions, I suppose.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:27 AM on 18 June 2024Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
I just read the following BBC article that presents a ‘red flag’ twist on the Agenda 21 point raised by nigelj @1 and expanded on by Nick Palmer @2.
BBC News: How a Kenyan farmer became a champion of climate change denial
I have seem many comments dismissing the undeniably required rapid significant correction of developed activity and related perceptions of status by claiming that ‘Agenda 21 types of actions’ are ‘unjustified wealth redistribution from rich to poor people’ (unjustly based on the unjustified beliefs that people perceived to be richer deserve to be richer and people who are poorer deserve to be poorer).
This ‘red flag twist’ is basically that actions to correct the developed harmful ways of living ‘harm the poor’. It is often simplistically claimed that ‘putting a price on carbon’ should not be done because it hurts the poor. Of course, parallel actions to help the poor, like rebating collected carbon fees with more going to poorer people than to richer people, are required to limit the harm done to the less fortunate by the undeniably helpful action of making it more expensive to be harmful.
The following quote from the BBC reporting is the twist made by a ‘social media popular African farmer (Mr Machogu)’:
“On social media, he has repeatedly posted unfounded claims that man-made climate change is not only a “scam” or a “hoax”, but also a ploy by Western nations to “keep Africa poor”.”
So the climate change actions can be unjustifiably accused of ‘keeping the poor poor’ as well as ‘redistributing from the rich to the poor’.
Of course, anyone who cares to learn about important matters like Agenda 21 will understand the injustice of demanding restrictions on harmful actions by ‘poorer farmers’ without ‘wealth redistribution from those who are richer’ that effectively improves the lives of poorer farmers, especially the poorest, in parallel with richer people dramatically reducing how harmful their developed ways of living are (even if they believe that such harm reduction by them combined with having to help the least fortunate makes them poorer relative to the poorest).
The BBC article also includes the following statement directly related to a ‘red flag’ already identified in the OP:
““Climate change is mostly natural. A warmer climate is good for life,” Mr Machogu wrongly claimed in a tweet posted in February, along with the hashtag #ClimateScam (which he has used hundreds of times).”
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BaerbelW at 19:36 PM on 16 June 2024It warmed before 1940 when CO2 was low
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal was updated on June 16, 2024 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @ https://sks.to/at-a-glance
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nigelj at 08:54 AM on 16 June 2024Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
Interesting that TWFA quotes Paul Ehrlich as an example of a clever contrarian. Perhaps TWFA doesnt realise Ehrlichs predictions of mass famine by the 1970s due to over population, have clearly been proven spectacularly wrong. And it is unlikely there would be mass famine in the future, given fertility rates have fallen so much (fortunately).
Sure sometimes contrarians are proven right but putting your faith in them is very risky - especially the climate contrarians who have been debunked over and over again.
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:14 AM on 16 June 2024Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
nigelj @1 is correct that the mention of 'Agenda 21' should be a red flag that the comment is presenting a misunderstanding.
The following is a link directly to UN Agenda 21. It was published in 1992.
Learning about the reality (the truth) of Agenda 21 is contrary to the developed interests of many people. The developed interests of those people are understandably a serious problem negatively impacting humanity and democracy now and into the future.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:54 AM on 16 June 2024Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
In addition to the justified criticisms of TWFA’s comment @4, in particular Charlie-Brown’s @8 concern regarding the significant number of people who have allowed themselves to be uninformed or misinformed, NPR recently reported “A major disinformation research team's future is uncertain after political attacks”.
The Republican Party radicalized by Fossil Fuel Interests is not the only party interested in misleading people and keeping the misled from becoming better informed. But they certainly are a major part of the problem. And, like other ‘successful’ misleaders, they mislead on many matters, not just climate science.
I recently made a related comment (see here on the SkS shared item Fossil fuels are shredding our democracy). Misleading political and economic game players are a massive threat to the future of humanity and efforts to improve democracy.
People in competition for perceptions of status and hoping to maximize ‘their freedom to enjoy believing and doing whatever they please’ can easily be tempted to misunderstand how harmful and unhelpful their misunderstanding and related unacceptable actions actually are ... including actions like absurdly believing that ‘understanding that burning fossil fuels produces significant negative climate change impacts’ can be simplistically dismissed by claiming it is the belief that ‘humans can control the climate’.
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Charlie_Brown at 02:27 AM on 16 June 2024Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
TWFA @ 4
I worry about the 42% of adult Americans who either do not believe or do not know that global warming is caused by human activities (ref: Yale Climate Opinion Maps 2023. I believe that they have been influenced by persistent disinformation that continues to be initiated by the 1-3% of scientists who undermine the science. As voters, they influence political leaders and policy. Many policy makers have not been convinced that action is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. See, for example, Mike Johnson Town Hall.That global warming is caused by greenhouse gas emissions is solid, fundamental science including: 1) conservation of energy – 1st law of thermodynamics, 2) basic atmospheric physics, and 3) laws of radiant energy transfer (Stefan-Boltzmann Law, Planck Distribution Law, Kirchoff’s Law, and Beer-Lambert Law. Global warming theory is based on these fundamentals and supported by a massive amount of evidence and cross-checks. All of the disinformation that I have seen is either: 1) not supported by evidence, 2) misrepresents the global warming theory, and/or 3) does not comply with the laws of science listed above.
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michael sweet at 01:32 AM on 16 June 2024Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
TWFA:
Have you noticed that there is a record heat dome over the USA today? Or that south Florida had record floods yesterday? Why would we wait 20 years to decide to take action when the climate has already dramatically changed exactly as the 97% of scientists predicted?
The longer we wait to take action the worse the damage will be.
Renewable energy is cheaper than fossil energy today and will save trillions of dollars.
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Bob Loblaw at 01:31 AM on 16 June 2024Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
TWFA @ 4:
Oh, my. What red flags does your comment trigger?
- Questions the 97% consensus. Suggests waiting a couple of decades to see what happens. Claims action will take "hundreds of trillions". As the OP says, "wording typical for the 'discourses of climate delay'".
- Uses phrases "conclusions are correct and infallible" and "your perfection of science and purity of motive" [emphasis added], which attempts to make the consensus look like it is an absolute claim (even though the OP says "the facts are at least more than settled enough to base our decisions on". [again, emphasis added].
- Says "...convinced the right people..." and "...your theory of climate control..." [emphasis added], showing conspiratorial thinking (in group, out group).
- Says "...that anything said in question or to the contrary is "disinformation"...", in spite of the fact that the OP uses phrases such as "...in most likelihood be wrong or misleading...", "...might also be an indication...", "...It doesn't necessarily mean that everything written is wrong, but it nonetheless serves as a warning flag...", and "...might need to be read with a suitably large grain of salt."
All in one short paragraph. An impressive feat, to pack so many warning signals into such a short comment. Were you intending to provide us with an example of the type of comment that is probably safe to ignore? Or maybe you're just doing a Poe? Or maybe you are just so self-unaware that you don't see this in yourself?
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John Mason at 00:46 AM on 16 June 2024Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
@TWFA #4:
Just WHO is, "going to make everybody else spend hundreds of trillions testing your theory of climate control"???
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TWFA at 00:18 AM on 16 June 2024Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
I don't know why you worry about all this chatter if you know your science and conclusions are correct and infallible, that anything said in question or to the contrary is "disinformation". You've already convinced the right people of your perfection of science and purity of motive and they are going to make everybody else spend hundreds of trillions testing your theory of climate control, so stop worrying about it, in a couple decades we'll see if the 97% were right or some Copernicus or Ehrlich among the 3% hawking "disinformation" was instead.
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Nick Palmer at 20:54 PM on 15 June 2024Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
Just to clarify, both of those quotes have been 'quote mined' and cherry picked, by manipulative people, from much longer texts which, if read in their entirety, put a very differen meaning on the text.
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Nick Palmer at 20:47 PM on 15 June 2024Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
I find that the 'it's all a plan to enable the evil Agenda 21’ has mutated in the last couple of years into 'it's all a plan to enable the evil WEF (World Economic Forum) plan for totalitarian global control. This is usually expressed as a neo-McCarthyist fear that Johnny Foreigner is planning to take away Americans' freedoms (and guns...). They'll often refer to 'super-wealthy globalists' like George Soros and Bill Gates, Mencken's 'hobgoblins' quote and go on to quote the 'Club of Rome'
"In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill. In their totality and in their interactions these phenomena do constitute a common threat with demands the solidarity of all peoples. But in designating them as the enemy, we fall into the trap about which we have already warned namely mistaking systems for causes. All these dangers are caused by human intervention and it is only through changed attitudes and behaviour that they can be overcome. The real enemy, then, is humanity itself."
"The First Global Revolution", A Report by the Council of the Club of Rome by Alexander King and Bertrand Schneider 1991"
Another favourite quote is bt Ottmar Edenhofer - "But one must say clearly that we redistribute de facto the world's wealth by climate policy. Obviously, the owners of coal and oil will not be enthusiastic about this. One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy anymore.
Ottmar Edenhofer
'UN IPCC official'" -
nigelj at 08:36 AM on 15 June 2024Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
This is an example of warning sign I've seen a few times: "Climate science and mitigation is just part of Agenda 21."
This is allegedy a plan for the United Nations to exert totalitarian control over the world and impliment evil policies. Some States in the USA (Republican states) have banned its use
In fact Agenda 21 is a set of voluntary, practical, sensible, generally commonly publically accepted guidelines to help solve a range of environmental, economic and social problems and to promote sustainable development, ideally to be worked out and implimented locally rather than by central government. This link gives a summary:
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One Planet Only Forever at 11:37 AM on 14 June 2024Fossil fuels are shredding our democracy
Thank you for continuing to point to and share excellent examples of the increased awareness and improved understanding that needs to become the norm for the vast majority of global humanity in order for humanity to have a decent improving future.
A focus on pursuing individual interests can lead to conflicting interests escalating into ‘uncivil conflicts’. A mechanism to limit the harm of such damaging developments, perhaps the most effective mechanism, is for all actions to be governed by the pursuit of learning to be less harmful and more helpful to Others. There are many books and research reports supporting this understanding regarding climate science and many other important matters that ‘people can and should learn about’.
Specifically regarding democracy, “How Democracies Die”, by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, is a robust evidence-based presentation focused on ‘norms that are essential to democracy’. The norms include:
- accepting that all competitors for leadership are legitimate (which is only possible if all competitors have a passion for learning to be less harmful and more helpful to Others, no misleaders allowed)
- limiting the use of systemic powers like ‘legal or government’ actions (such powers only used to limit the harm done by people, especially misleaders, who have interests that conflict with learning to be less harmful and more helpful to Others).
If more powerful people respected those norms then less harm would have happened to date, the current day would be better, and it would be less challenging to end the harms being done to the future of humanity and develop lasting improvements like truly better energy production and less unnecessary energy demand.
I have an improved understanding to offer regarding the opening statement. Instead of “...waiting for the day when renewable energy would become cheaper than fossil fuels”, people concerned about the climate change impacts of developed human activity should have been demanding that the negative impacts of fossil fuels and any of the alternatives be learned about and be neutralized (and reversed) regardless of the cost. A fundamental requirement is ensuring that people’s ‘free choices’ are harmless to Others. And more costly energy would bring about a very important correction – reduction of unnecessary energy use.
The cheapest renewable energy will likely be the most harmful and least sustainable option. That is what the competitive marketplace (economic and political) can be expected to produce and promote if the objective is simply ‘Renewable energy that is cheaper than fossil fuels’. The marketplace can also be expected to produce efforts that ‘increase the harm done by fossil fuels to maximize the benefits obtained by people who want to benefit from fossil fuel use’. Also, even the best renewable energy production will have some negative impacts.
The governing norm required to sustain any system, including a democracy or business organization, can be understood to be: Passionate pursuit of learning to be less harmful and more helpful to Others. Anyone with interests that conflict with that governing norm are likely to harm the future of the system, including democracy or other systems of ‘individual freedoms’.
Without ‘respectful tolerance of justifiable differences and leadership passion for correction of misunderstandings’ competition for perceptions of status relative to Others will likely produce conflicting interests with damaging results. Poorly governed or misled competition will degenerate into harmful escalating efforts to obtain and maintain unjustified perceptions of status.
Competition for perceptions of status can produce very beneficial results. But it can undeniably also produce very damaging results, including the shredding of democracy.
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Bob Loblaw at 23:26 PM on 13 June 2024On Hens, Eggs, Temperature and CO2
Since we are using cartoons to represent Koutsoyiannis et al's thought process, today's XKCD cartoon seems appropriate. (As usual with XKCD, if you follow the link to the original web page, you can hover over the cartoon to get additional insight.)
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Bob Loblaw at 08:42 AM on 12 June 2024CO2 effect is saturated
Jim: I have not had time to read that paper in detail yet, but I can provide a bit of background.
From the paper, it mentions
AIRS is a grating spectrometer that measures spectral radiances in 2378 channels across the 2,169–2,673 cm−1, 1,217–1,613 cm−1, and 649–1,136 cm−1 bands and has calibration and stability performance since 2002.
In order to get spectral data from a light source, the light source needs to be split into different wavelengths.
- One way to do this is with optical filters - but you need one filter for each wavelength, so it is hard to get a lot of wavelengths this way.
- The second method is to spread the light out by wavelength, like a prism does. You don't use prisms in such instruments though - you use either a narrow slit, or a diffraction grating. AIRS seems to use the latter.
- Once the light is spread out, you need to measure it. One way is to have a single sensor move along the spectrum, but this is slow and mechanically complex (but highly accurate). The modern way is to put a diode array into the system, and each diode in the array falls at a different wavelength. That's what AIRS seems to use.
The raw diode array output needs to get translated to spectral irradiance, and the spectral resolution is limited to the number of individual diodes in the array.
The Raghuraman et al paper then increases the resolution using radiance models as an interpolation/enhancement method, and uses CERES broadband (not spectral) data to help limit the model results.
In short, it's not a particularly simple process. Not surprising that it has taken time for someone to do it.
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Jim Hunt at 19:45 PM on 11 June 2024CO2 effect is saturated
Thanks for the heads up re Raghuraman et al. 2023 in the new "basic" section.
Having looked at CERES data in the past I now find myself wondering why (apparently) nobody has previously thought of using AIRS data to "provide measurements of Earth's emitted thermal heat at fine-scale wavelengths".
Am I missing something? If so, what?! -
Bob Loblaw at 22:58 PM on 10 June 2024Fact Brief - Is the ocean acidifying?
Eddie:
Also keep in mind that the logarithmic/exponential nature of pH values means that any decrease of 0.1 in pH units means a 26% increase in acidity from the previous value - 8.2 to 8.1, 9.6 to 9.5, 10.9 to 10.8, etc. The ratio between the two numbers is always 10-0.1 = 1.26.
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EddieEvans at 05:54 AM on 10 June 2024Fact Brief - Is the ocean acidifying?
Both my wife and I thank you.
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Bob Loblaw at 05:30 AM on 10 June 2024Fact Brief - Is the ocean acidifying?
Eddie:
Remember that pH is a logarithmic scale. This is explained in the links at the bottom of the post.
To get actual concentration of H ions, you calculate 10-pH.
- 10-8.1 = 7.943e-9
- 10-8.2 = 6.31e-9
Ratio between those two numbers is 1.26. So from that calculation, pH 8.1 is 26% higher H ion concentration than ph 8.2.
If you want to calculate the other way, to see what pH is 30% higher than 8.2, we do 1.3* 6.31e-9 = 8.2e-9, and -log(8.2e-9 = 8.086.
In round numbers, pH 8.1 is about 30% more acidic than pH 8.2. At a guess, the source of the original 30% figure is either rounding, or has slightly more precise measurements of the change in pH.
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EddieEvans at 03:56 AM on 10 June 2024Fact Brief - Is the ocean acidifying?
"Since the Industrial Revolution, ocean pH has declined from 8.2 to 8.1 — a 30% increase in acidity."
I'm not quite clear on the 30% increase in acidity." I understand how acidity increases as Ph drops. I don't know what to do with the numbers 8.2 to 8.1 in the context of a point 1 change creating a 30% acidity increase.
Where do I go astray?
Thanks to anyone who cares to help me out on this.
