Skeptical Science New Research for Week #17, 2021

Posted on 28 April 2021 by Doug Bostrom

"CO2 is plant food." No.

Despite propaganda to the contrary CO2 isn't "plant food," any more than sugar is "food" for us humans. CO2 is a metabolic requirement for plants, an input among many to a complex metabolism evolved and tuned to work with what it "knows." Plants are adapted for less than 400 ppm of CO2 and when this level is exceeded strange effects can happen in terms of health and function of plants themselves. But it turns out that unexpected outcomes are even larger than we thought. In CO2 physiological effect can cause rainfall decrease as strong as large-scale deforestation in the Amazon, Gilvan Sampaio et al carefully work out a particularly non-obvious outcome: changes in plant metabolism due to increased CO2 in the air may cause knock-on effects on rainfall equal to that of large scale deforestation. Open access and free to read. From the abstract: 

Here, for the first time, we systematically compare the plant physiological effects of eCO2 and deforestation on Amazon rainfall. We use the CPTEC Brazilian Atmospheric Model (BAM) with dynamic vegetation under a 1.5×CO2 experiment and a 100 % substitution of the forest by pasture grasslands, with all other conditions held similar between the two scenarios. We find that both scenarios result in equivalent average annual rainfall reductions (Physiology: −257 mm, −12 %; Deforestation: −183 mm, −9 %) that are above the observed Amazon rainfall interannual variability of 5 %. The rainfall decreases predicted in the two scenarios are linked to a reduction of approximately 20 % in canopy transpiration but for different reasons: the eCO2-driven reduction of stomatal conductance drives the change in the Physiology experiment, and the smaller leaf area index of pasturelands (−72 % compared to tropical forest) causes the result in the Deforestation experiment. The Walker circulation is modified in the two scenarios: in Physiology due to a humidity-enriched free troposphere with decreased deep convection due to the heightening of a drier and warmer (+2.1 ?C) boundary layer, and in Deforestation due to enhanced convection over the Andes and a subsidence branch over the eastern Amazon without considerable changes in temperature (−0.2 ?C in 2 m air temperature and +0.4 ?C in surface temperature). But again, these changes occur through different mechanisms: strengthened west winds from the Pacific and reduced easterlies entering the basin affect the Physiology experiment, and strongly increased easterlies influence the result of the Deforestation experiment. 

Meteorologists: "Do keep up!"

A perspective piece in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by Wright, Samara and Lopez-Cantu points out that even as we formulate adaptation and resilience policy and implementation details to account for changes in future weather and hydrology, the statistical ground on which those plans are being built is shifting beneath our feet and our plans will be found wanting if this isn't addressed. Resilience to Extreme Rainfall Starts with Science is open access and free to read. The abstract is succinct:

Intensification of extreme rainfall due to climate change means that federally published rainfall metrics such as the “100-yr storm” are outdated throughout much of the United States. Given their central role in a wide range of infrastructure designs and risk management decisions, updating these metrics to reflect recent and future changes is essential to protect communities. There have been considerable advances in recent years in data collection, statistical methods, and climate modeling that can now be brought to bear on the problem. Scientists must take a lead in this updating process, which should be open, inclusive, and leverage recent scientific advances.

Housekeeping

For some reason, for this week our API calls to Unpaywall went unanswered with results in many cases. We're not sure what the problem may be— it appears to be on the other end of the line. Many articles that are open access are not shown as such in this week's edition, so if an item appeals, check it.

96 articles 

Physical science of climate change, effects

The Role of Atmospheric Feedbacks in Abrupt Winter Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Future Warming Scenarios
Hankel & Tziperman 2021 Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0558.1

Mechanism for the Spatial Pattern of the Amplitude Changes in Tropical Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability under Global Warming
Zhang et al 2021 Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0885.1

CO2 physiological effect can cause rainfall decrease as strong as large-scale deforestation in the Amazon

Observations of climate change, effects

Global-scale patterns of observed sea surface salinity intensified since the 1870s

Accelerating permafrost collapse on the eastern Tibetan Plateau
Gao et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abf7f0

Historical Trends in the Trade Wind Inversion in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean

Observational analysis of decadal and long-term hydroclimate drivers in the Mediterranean region: role of the ocean–atmosphere system and anthropogenic forcing

Surface temperature?related variations in the East Asian summer monsoon during three warming stages

Canadian In Situ Snow Cover Trends for 1955–2017 Including an Assessment of the Impact of Automation
Brown et al 2021 Atmosphere-Ocean
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2021.1911781

Evolution of the firn pack of Kaskawulsh Glacier, Yukon: meltwater effects, densification, and the development of a perennial firn aquifer

Increasing maximum lake surface temperature under climate change
Dokulil et al 2021 Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03085-1

Global changes in the spatial extents of precipitation extremes
Tan et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abf462

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, climate inputs, effects

Is temperature still the most limiting factor for growth in northern boreal forests?

Constraining global terrestrial gross primary productivity in a global carbon assimilation system with OCO-2 chlorophyll fluorescence data

Top-of-permafrost ground ice indicated by remotely sensed late-season subsidence
Zwieback et al 2020
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-312

Global distribution of methane emissions: a comparative inverse analysis of observations from the TROPOMI and GOSAT satellite instruments

Estimating global aerodynamic parameters in 1982–2017 using remote-sensing data and a turbulent transfer model
Liu et al 2021 Remote Sensing of Environment
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2021.112428

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

The Response of Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones to Climate Change: Quasi-Idealized Numerical Experiments
Jung & Lackmann 2021 Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0543.1

Assessment of potential risks induced by increasing extreme precipitation under climate change

Population exposure to compound dry and hot events in China under 1.5 and 2 °C global warming

Projected incremental changes to extreme wind-driven wave heights for the twenty-first century

Dynamics of the Mediterranean droughts from 850 to 2099 CE in the Community Earth System Model
Kim & Raible 2021 Climate of the Past
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-887-2021

Analyzing the effects of sea ice melting and atmospheric heat transport on the warming around arctic based on comparable analysis and coupling modes
Wu et al 2021 Atmospheric Research
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105630

Projected changes in the mean and intra-seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations under higher warming conditions
Shahi et al 2021 Climate Dynamics
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05771-3

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Challenges and potential solutions in statistical downscaling of precipitation

The performance of CORDEX-EA-II simulations in simulating seasonal temperature and elevation-dependent warming over the Tibetan Plateau

Uncertainty of land surface model and land use data on WRF model simulations over China

Cryosphere & climate change

The Role of Atmospheric Feedbacks in Abrupt Winter Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Future Warming Scenarios
Hankel & Tziperman 2021 Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0558.1

Modeling the retreat of the Aneto Glacier (Spanish Pyrenees) since the Little Ice Age, and its accelerated shrinkage over recent decades

Climate and ice sheet evolutions from the last glacial maximum to the pre-industrial period with an ice sheet – climate coupled model

Accelerating permafrost collapse on the eastern Tibetan Plateau
Gao et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abf7f0

Top-of-permafrost ground ice indicated by remotely sensed late-season subsidence
Zwieback et al 2020
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-312

Canadian In Situ Snow Cover Trends for 1955–2017 Including an Assessment of the Impact of Automation
Brown et al 2021 Atmosphere-Ocean
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2021.1911781

Evolution of the firn pack of Kaskawulsh Glacier, Yukon: meltwater effects, densification, and the development of a perennial firn aquifer

Sea level & climate change

Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner-Ronne basin, Antarctica

Paleoclimate

Climate-induced treeline mortality during the termination of the Little Ice Age in the Greater Yellowstone Ecoregion, USA

Biology & climate change

Projected shifts in loggerhead sea turtle thermal habitat in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean due to climate change

Marine biodiversity refugia in a climate?sensitive subarctic shelf

Altered precipitation dynamics lead to a shift in herbivore dynamical regime

Predicted climate?induced reductions in scavenging in eastern North America

Is temperature still the most limiting factor for growth in northern boreal forests?

Omega-3 nutraceuticals, climate change and threats to the environment: The cases of Antarctic krill and Calanus finmarchicus
Prado-Cabrero & Nolan 2021 Ambio
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s13280-020-01472-z

Arctic tundra shrubification: a review of mechanisms and impacts on ecosystem carbon balance

Distinct inter? and intra?specific vulnerability of coastal species to global change

Cross?generational response of a tropical sea urchin to global change and a selection event in a 43?month mesocosm study

Detection of signals linked to climate change, land-cover change and climate oscillators in Tropical Montane Cloud Forests
Los et al 2021 Remote Sensing of Environment
DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2021.112431

Timing of forest fine root production advances with reduced snow cover in northern Japan: implications for climate-induced change in understory and overstory competition

Projected effects of ocean warming on an iconic pelagic fish and its fishery
Moltó et al 2021 Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-88171-1

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Predictors of global carbon dioxide emissions: Do stringent environmental policies matter?

Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress

Background conditions for an urban greenhouse gas network in the Washington, DC, and Baltimore metropolitan region

The role of termite CH4 emissions on the ecosystem scale: a case study in the Amazon rainforest

Drivers of greenhouse gas emissions in ASEAN + 6 countries: a new look

Constraining global terrestrial gross primary productivity in a global carbon assimilation system with OCO-2 chlorophyll fluorescence data

A more complete accounting of greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration in urban landscapes

Arctic tundra shrubification: a review of mechanisms and impacts on ecosystem carbon balance

The impact of SF6 sinks on age of air climatologies and trends

Global distribution of methane emissions: a comparative inverse analysis of observations from the TROPOMI and GOSAT satellite instruments

Reviews and syntheses: Enhancing research and monitoring of land-to-atmosphere greenhouse gases exchange in developing countries
Kim et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2021-85

Hypersaline tidal flats as important “blue carbon” systems: a case study from three ecosystems
Brown et al 2020
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-2527-2021

Carbon dioxide dynamics of Bhalswa Lake: a human-impacted urban wetland of Delhi, India
Joshi & Siddaiah 2021 Environment, Development and Sustainability,
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01430-z

Variations of carbon allocation and turnover time across tropical forests
Yang et al 2021 Global Ecology and Biogeography
DOI: 10.1111/geb.13302

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Tree planting: A double?edged sword to fight climate change in an era of megafires
Hermoso et al 2021 Global Change Biology
Open Access DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15625

Effects of Earth system feedbacks on the potential mitigation of large-scale tropical forest restoration

Optimal Carbon Storage in Mixed-Species Size-Structured Forests
Assmuth et al 2021 Environmental and Resource Economics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10640-021-00559-9

Black carbon

Method to Quantify the Black Carbon Aerosol Light Absorption Enhancement with Entropy and Diversity Measures
Zhao et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-336

Aerosols

Aerosol radiative forcings induced by substantial changes in anthropogenic emissions in China from 2008 to 2016
Liu & Matsui 2021 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-5965-2021

Decarbonization

Russia's political discourse on the EU’s energy transition (2014–2019) and its effect on EU-Russia energy relations

Efficiency and dependence in the European electricity transition
Percebois & Pommeret 2021 Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112300

Environmental protection and economic efficiency of low-carbon pilot cities in China
Yao & Shen 2021 Environment, Development and Sustainability,
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01431-y

Climate change communications & cognition

Measuring pro-environmental behavior using the carbon emission task

Perceptions of Climate Risk and Use of Climate Risk Information by Natural Resource Conservation Stakeholders Participating in ADVANCE Projects in Asia and Latin America
De Mel et al 2021 Weather, Climate, and Society,
DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-20-0010.1

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Managing extreme weather and climate change in UK agriculture: Impacts, attitudes and action among farmers and stakeholders

Managing climate risk in livestock production in South Africa: how might improved tailored forecasting contribute ?

Climate resilience programmes and technical efficiency: evidence from the smallholder dairy farmers in the Brazilian semi-arid region

Projected effects of ocean warming on an iconic pelagic fish and its fishery
Moltó et al 2021 Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-88171-1

Modeling the effects of crop management on food barley production under a midcentury changing climate in northern Ethiopia
Araya et al 2021 Climate Risk Management
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100308

To till or not to till in a temperate ecosystem? Implications for climate change mitigation
EVANS et al 2009 Nordiskt Medicinskt Arkiv
Open Access DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-72816-0_21679

Hydrology & climate change

Do small and large floods have the same drivers of change? A regional attribution analysis in Europe
Bertola et al 2020
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/hess-2020-396

Analysis of indicators of climate extremes and projection of groundwater recharge in the northern part of the Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil

Evaluating adaptation to drought in a changing climate: experience at the local scale in the Aconcagua Valley

Assessing the impacts of climate change on irrigation diversion water requirement in the Philippines

Aridity Changes and Related Climatic Drivers in the Drylands of China during 1960–2019

Drainage basin reorganization and endorheic-exorheic transition triggered by climate change and human intervention
Lu et al 2021 Global and Planetary Change
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103494

Projected Evolution of Drought Characteristics in Vietnam Based on CORDEX?SEA downscaled CMIP5 data
Nguyen?Ngoc?Bich et al 2021 International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7150

How Moist and Dry Intrusions Control the Local Hydrologic Cycle in Present and Future Climates
Smith et al 2021 Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0780.1

Risk variation of reservoir regulation during flood season based on bivariate statistical approach under climate change: a case study in the Chengbihe reservoir, China
Wang et al 2021 Natural Hazards
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04746-1

Current and future flood risk of new build homes across different socio-economic neighbourhoods in England and Wales

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

Climate Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall for Bitcoin market

Economic assessment of the development of CO 2 direct reduction technologies in long-term climate strategies of the Gulf countries

The dynamic impacts of CO2 emissions from different sources on Pakistan’s economic progress: a roadmap to sustainable development

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Human population, social justice, and climate policy

Equitable mitigation to achieve the 1.5 °C goal in the Mediterranean Basin
Alcaraz et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-233150/v1

Combining ambitious climate policies with efforts to eradicate poverty

Alignment of municipal climate change and urban forestry policies: A Canadian perspective

The role of UK local government in delivering on net zero carbon commitments: You've declared a Climate Emergency, so what's the plan?
Gudde et al 2021 Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112245

From the Paris Agreement to corporate climate commitments: evaluation of seven methods for setting ‘science-based’ emission targets
Bjørn et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe57b

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Perspectives on transformational change in climate risk management and adaptation
Deubelli & Mechler 2020 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd42d

Equity, inclusion, and justice as criteria for decision-making on climate adaptation in cities

More than planning: Diversity and drivers of institutional adaptation under climate change in 96 major cities

Evaluation of flood damage reduction throughout Japan from adaptation measures taken under a range of emissions mitigation scenarios

Climate change impacts on human culture

Reshaping ties to land: a systematic review of the psychosocial and cultural impacts of Pacific climate-related mobility

Other

Pathologies of Climate Governance: International Relations, National Politics and Human Nature

Global changes in oceanic mesoscale currents over the satellite altimetry record
Martínez-Moreno et al 2020
Open Access DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01006-9

On the anomalous development of the extremely intense positive Arctic Oscillation of the 2019–2020 winter

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Resilience to Extreme Rainfall Starts with Science
Wright et al 2021 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0267.1

 

---

Obtaining articles wihout journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light"  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

• Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.

• Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

• The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. As it is the journal's decision to do so, we respect that and include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Articles are presented with a title link via the original publisher URL so as to preserve provenance information, and when (usually) available, a more permanent DOI link. When a publicly accessible PDF version of an article is found, a direct link is provided.

Suggestions

Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.