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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2022

Posted on 30 June 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Looking into a distant mirror

The academic publishing process is notoriously stately. Events in the rest of the world happen at their own swift pace as a given article makes its way through the publication pipeline. In the case of  Russian climate scepticism: an understudied case, authors Teresa Ashe & Marianna Poberezhskaya submitted their work in April of last year, in what is beginning to seem like a different geopolitical era. Meanwhile, our species must simultaneously keep many balls in the air; our attention has many genuine demands. It would be a genuine shame if these authors' unique contribution was overlooked in the hurly-burly. 

Publishing in Climatic Change as part of a topical collectionAshe & Poberezhskaya review and draw together the relatively sparse literature on climate skepticism in Russia. The local context leads to stark differences from what many of us in the United States may find famiilar, but also a few similarities. Self-appointed "think tanks" of the kind so enthusiastically built and crafted for pushing agendas in the United States are almost absent, made unnecessary by a tight interlock between large energy enterprises and the Russian government. On the other hand, repurposed physicists in both countries have played key roles in fostering public ignorance by relying on their special authority to offer advice on things of which they're ignorant. NGOs operate at their peril; a change in the mood of government is potentially quite dangerous.

Leaving aside the local idiosyncrasies of Russia's grasp of anthropogenic climate change, because it strikes many comparisons between Russia and the US needing supporting citations this paper can serve as a mini-education about climate skepticism in both countries. Beyond that, it's of course encouraging to see how a state so heavily dependent on fossil fuels still has a very substantial population amenable to facts.

Other notables:

Rapid fragmentation of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf. Acceleration of an ice shelf ending in 2006 created an injury and scar that is now becoming apparent, two decades after the original insult began. The mechanism joins two other major contributors hastening the demise of this ice shelf. 

Microplastics have light-absorbing ability to enhance cryospheric meltingIt appears that we may be attacking subaerial ice (glaciers, ice sheets, sea ice) with mutually reinforcing multiple weapons. The authors point out that according to what we know of physics, microplastics should certainly be having negative effects on ice— but confirmation needs field work. 

Fast Action on Short-lived Climate Pollutants and Nature-based Solutions to Help Countries Meet Carbon Neutrality Goals Researchers calculate that by paying attention to a number of small and more easily pulled levers of climate control, we can partially ameliorate our extremely tardy grappling with the main problem behind climate change, effectively buy back some preicious time we've wasted. This time is priced quite cheaply.

Environmental trade-offs of direct air capture technologies in climate change mitigation toward 2100. Authors find that direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) is now more or less a mandatory requirement. DACCS is also not a silver bullet in terrms of material trades needed to make it a reality, and will be eye-poppingly energy intensive in operation (not surprising, given the offending chemistry causing the need for DACCS). 

All of the above open access and free to read. Also don't miss our weekly collection of government and NGO reports, here. 

143 articles in 48 journals by 886 contributing authors 

Physical science of climate change, effects

Strong ocean/sea-ice contrasts observed in satellite-derived ice crystal number concentrations in Arctic ice boundary-layer clouds
Papakonstantinou?Presvelou et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl098207

Mechanisms of Ocean Heat Uptake along and across Isopycnals
Clément et al., Journal of Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0793.1

Observations of climate change, effects

Recent Increase in the Occurrence of Snow Droughts Followed by Extreme Heatwaves in a Warmer World
Li & Wang, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099925

A century of observed temperature change in the Indian Ocean
Wenegrat et al., , Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10510505.1

Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970-2020: Observed and simulated by CMIP6 climate models
Chylek et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099371

North-south differences in under-ice primary production in the Chukchi Sea from 1988 to 2018
Payne et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc018431

Salinity variability modes in the Pacific Ocean from the perspectives of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and global warming
Shi et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2021jc018092

Observational constraint on the contribution of surface albedo feedback to the amplified Tibetan Plateau surface warming
Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2021jd036085

Decrease of Annually Accumulated Tropical Cyclone-Induced Sea Surface Cooling and Diapycnal Mixing in Recent Decades
Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099290

Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective
Clarke et al., Environmental Research: Climate, Open Access 10.1088/2752-5295/ac6e7d

Evaporative water loss of 1.42 million global lakes
Zhao et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31125-6

Rapid fragmentation of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf
Benn et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022

Global decline in frequency
Pathak et al., , Open Access pdf 10.1101/2021.10.24.465613

Climate warming shortens ice durations and alters freeze and break-up patterns in Swedish water bodies
Hallerbäck et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-2493-2022

Aircraft observations and reanalysis depictions of trends in the North Atlantic winter jet stream wind speeds and turbulence
Tenenbaum et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 10.1002/qj.4342

Unravelling the long-term, locally heterogenous response of Greenland glaciers observed in archival photography
Cooper et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-2449-2022

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, contributors, effects

Experimental investigation for the impact of chlorite dissolution on CO2 mineral trapping in a sandstone-brine-CO2 system
Cheng et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 10.1002/ghg.2163

Quantifying the Effect of Climate Change on Midlatitude Subseasonal Prediction Skill Provided by the Tropics
Mayer & Barnes Barnes Barnes, , Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10510819.1

Investigating the cloud radiative effect of Arctic cirrus
Marsing et al., , Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-395

A global inventory of quantitative documentary evidence related to climate since the 15th century
Burgdorf, Climate of the Past, Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-18-1407-2022

Contributions of Internal Climate Variability in Driving Global and Ocean Temperature Variations Using Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network
Xiao et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.06.001

Impacts of active satellite sensors' low-level cloud detection limitations on cloud radiative forcing in the Arctic
Liu, , Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-140

A global ensemble of ocean wave climate statistics from contemporary wave reanalysis and hindcasts
Morim et al., Scientific Data, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-022-01459-3

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Why has precipitation increased in the last 120 years in Norway?
Konstali & Sorteberg, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2021jd036234

Future Thermodynamic Impacts of Global Warming on Landfalling Typhoons and Their Induced Storm Surges to the Pearl River Delta Region as Inferred from High-Resolution Regional Models
Chen et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0436.1

Lisbon urban heat island in future urban and climate scenarios
Silva et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101218

Future Thermodynamic Impacts of Global Warming on Landfalling Typhoons and Their Induced Storm Surges to the Pearl River Delta Region as Inferred from High-Resolution Regional Models
Chen et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0436.1

Lisbon urban heat island in future urban and climate scenarios
Silva et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101218

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: Challenges and potential solutions
Befort et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access 10.1029/2022gl098568

Cryosphere & climate change

Control of short-stature vegetation type on shallow ground temperatures in permafrost across the eastern Canadian Arctic
Evans et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022jg006941

Synchronous retreat of southeast Greenland’s peripheral glaciers
Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl097756

Climate warming shortens ice durations and alters freeze and break-up patterns in Swedish water bodies
Hallerbäck et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-2493-2022

Unravelling the long-term, locally heterogenous response of Greenland glaciers observed in archival photography
Cooper et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-2449-2022

The circum-Antarctic ice-shelves respond to a more positive Southern Annular Mode with regionally varied melting
Verfaillie et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00458-x

Observations of submesoscale eddy-driven heat transport at an ice shelf calving front
Friedrichs et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00460-3

Warm surface waters increase Antarctic ice shelf melt and delay dense water formation
Aoki et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00456-z

Sea level & climate change

Migration and transformation of coastal wetlands in response to rising seas
Osland et al., Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.abo5174

Sea level rise drives carbon and habitat loss in the U.S. mid-Atlantic coastal zone
Warnell et al., PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000044

Revisiting sea-level budget by considering all potential impact factors for global mean sea-level change estimation
Wang et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-14173-2

Paleoclimate

Episodes of early Pleistocene West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat recorded by Iceberg Alley sediments
Bailey et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 10.1029/2022pa004433

One-to-one Coupling between Southern Ocean Productivity and Antarctica Climate
Lu et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl098761

Impact of iron fertilisation on atmospheric CO2 during the last glaciation
Saini et al., , Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-2022-46

Impact of terrestrial biosphere on the atmospheric CO2 concentration across Termination V
Hes et al., , Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-2021-143

The warm winter paradox in the Pliocene northern high latitudes
Tindall et al., Climate of the Past, Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-18-1385-2022

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Assessment of the impacts of an unprecedented heatwave on intertidal shellfish of the Salish Sea
Raymond et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3798

Experimental warming reduces body mass but not reproductive investment
Lackey & Whiteman, Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3791

Projected Increases in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Productivity Loss Caused by Drought Under Climate Change
Cao et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef002681

Range shifts of overwintering birds depend on habitat type, snow conditions and habitat specialization
Bosco et al., , Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1170896/v1

Benthic Carbon Remineralization and Iron Cycling in Relation to Sea Ice Cover Along the Eastern Continental Shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula
Baloza et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2021jc018401

Anthropogenic Carbon Increase has Caused Critical Shifts in Aragonite Saturation Across a Sensitive Coastal System
Jarníková et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2021gb007024

Ecosystems at glacier margins can serve as climate-change laboratories
Gaglioti et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl098574

Topographic and vegetation drivers of thermal heterogeneity along the boreal–grassland transition zone in western Canada: Implications for climate change refugia
Estevo et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9008

Increased Global Vegetation Productivity Despite Rising Atmospheric Dryness Over the Last Two Decades
Song et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2021ef002634

Land-use change shifts and magnifies seasonal variations of the decomposer system in lowland tropical landscapes
Krashevska et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9020

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill
Tang & Zhao, Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9023

Growth and development of an invasive forest insect under current and future projected temperature regimes
Walter et al., Ecology and Evolution, Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.9017

Human-climate coupled changes in vegetation community complexity of China since 1980s
Su et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2021ef002553

Global change re-structures alpine plant communities through interacting abiotic and biotic effects
Collins et al., Ecology Letters, 10.1111/ele.14060

Long-distance facilitation of coastal ecosystem structure and resilience
Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2123274119

Climate warming–driven phenological shifts are species-specific in woody plants: evidence from twig experiment in Kashmir Himalaya
Hassan et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-022-02317-y

Body size responses to the combined effects of climate and land use changes within an urban framework
Martin & Sheridan , Global Change Biology, Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16292

Future Directions to Manage Wildlife Health in a Changing Climate
Hofmeister et al., EcoHealth, 10.1007/s10393-022-01604-9

Trading water for carbon in the future: effects of elevated CO2 and warming on leaf hydraulic traits in a semiarid grassland
Mueller et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16314

Birds adapted to cold conditions show greater changes in range size related to past climatic oscillations than temperate birds
Carrera et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-14972-7

Impact of freshwater runoff from the southwest Greenland Ice Sheet on fjord productivity since the late 19th century
Oksman et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-2471-2022

Grazing and global change factors differentially affect biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships in grassland ecosystems
He et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16305

Projected climate change impact on a coastal sea-as significant as all current pressures combined
Wåhlström et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16312

New tree-level temperature response curves document sensitivity of tree growth to high temperatures across a US-wide climatic gradient
Gantois, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16313

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Long-term drought aggravates instability of alpine grassland productivity to extreme climatic event
He et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3792

Global pattern of soil priming effect intensity and its environmental drivers
Mo et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3790

Global Estimates of Biogenic Methane Production in Marine Sediments Using Machine Learning and Deterministic Modeling
Lee et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021gb007248

Carbon dioxide and methane dynamics in a peatland headwater stream: Origins, processes and implications
Taillardat et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg006855

Deepening the Late Quaternary’s deep ocean carbon mysteries
Farmer, Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl099161

Carbonate parameter estimation and its application in revealing temporal and spatial variation in the South and Mid-Atlantic Bight, USA
Li et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc018811

Plankton Imagery Data Inform Satellite-Based Estimates of Diatom Carbon
Chase et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl098076

Groundwater discharge as a driver of methane emissions from Arctic lakes
Olid et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31219-1

Towards monitoring CO2 source-sink distribution over India via inverse modelling: Quantifying the fine-scale spatiotemporal variability of atmospheric CO2 mole fraction
Thilakan et al., , Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-392

High peatland methane emissions following permafrost thaw: enhanced acetoclastic methanogenesis during early successional stages
Heffernan et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-3051-2022

Substantial non-growing season CO2 loss across Tibetan alpine permafrost region
Li et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16315

Tree crown damage and its effects on forest carbon cycling in a tropical forest
Needham et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16318

Younger carbon dominates global soil carbon efflux
Xiao et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16311

Greenhouse gas emissions from African lakes are no longer a blind spot
Borges et al., Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.abi8716

Predicting China’s carbon intensity through 2050: an integrated analysis method
Xu et al., Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2022.2081117

Impact of interannual and multidecadal trends on methane-climate feedbacks and sensitivity
Cheng & Redfern, Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31345-w

Decomposing driving forces of carbon emission variation-A structural decomposition analysis of Japan
Li et al., Earth's Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002639

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Experimental investigation for the impact of chlorite dissolution on CO2 mineral trapping in a sandstone-brine-CO2 system
Cheng et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 10.1002/ghg.2163

Analysis of mathematical modeling methods in the processes of underground injection, storage, and conversion of carbon dioxide
Klimov & Zakirov, Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 10.1002/ghg.2162

Insights into the interaction between typical amines and alkaline minerals for improved CO2 absorption and mineralization
Ji et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 10.1002/ghg.2164

Removing carbon dioxide: first, do no harm
Buesseler et al., Nature, 10.1038/d41586-022-01774-0

A bacteria-based carbon sequestration and waste recycling system
La et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-14239-1

Environmental trade-offs of direct air capture technologies in climate change mitigation toward 2100
Qiu et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31146-1

Barking up the wrong tree? Can forest expansion help meet climate goals?
Baggio-Compagnucci et al., Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.05.011

Post combustion CO2 capture with calcium and lithium hydroxide
Costagliola et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-14235-5

Decarbonization

Heterogenous impacts of components in urban energy metabolism: evidences from gravity model
Tu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-021-01857-4

Bioclimatic passive design strategies of traditional houses in cold climate regions
Tamaskani Esfehankalateh et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-021-01855-6

Changes in the carbon mitigation responsibility of Japan's capital city, Tokyo – analysis of power supply shocks due to nuclear power plant accidents
Murakami et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101221

Vanadium for green energy: Increasing demand but with health implications in volcanic terrains
Parnell, GeoHealth, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021gh000579

Composite Cathodes for Solid-State Lithium Batteries: “Catholytes” the Underrated Giants
Al-Salih et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, 10.1002/aesr.202200032

Strategies to improve building environmental and economic performance: an exploratory study on 37 residential building scenarios
Scherz et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-022-02073-6

Integrated analysis of increased bioenergy futures in India
Graham et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113125

Urban and rural household energy transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does spatial heterogeneity reveal the direction of the transition?
Emodi et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113118

Cross-cutting scenarios and strategies for designing decarbonization pathways in the transport sector toward carbon neutrality
Zhang & Hanaoka, Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31354-9

Incentive structures for power-to-X and e-fuel pathways for transport in EU and member states
Skov & Schneider, Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113121

Is it safe to live near wind turbines? Reviewing the impacts of wind turbine noise
Karasmanaki, Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.05.012

Potential and roadmap of CO2 emission reduction in urban buildings: case study of Shenzhen
Jiang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.06.006

Aerosols

Insect herbivory caused plant stress emissions increases the negative radiative forcing of aerosols
Holopainen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd036733

Aerosol activation characteristics and prediction at the central European ACTRIS research station Melpitz, Germany
Wang et al., , Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-427

A sulfuric acid nucleation potential model for the atmosphere
Johnson & Jen Jen Jen, , Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-35

Climate change communications & cognition

Russian climate scepticism: an understudied case
Ashe & Poberezhskaya, Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03390-3

Climate action and populism of the left in Ecuador
Kramarz & Kingsbury, Environmental Politics, 10.1080/09644016.2022.2090388

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Implications of changing cropping pattern to low water demand plants due to climate change: evidence from Iran
Mikhak et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-021-01847-6

Determinants of dairy farmers’ likelihood of climate change adaptation in the Thrace Region of Turkey
Koç & Uzmay, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-021-01850-x

Depth-dependent responses of soil organic carbon stock under annual and perennial cropping systems
Chen et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2203486119

Millet and sorghum yield simulations under climate change scenarios in Senegal
Faye et al., Regional Environmental Change, 10.1007/s10113-022-01940-0

Effects of climate change in European croplands and grasslands: productivity, greenhouse gas balance and soil carbon storage
Carozzi et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-3021-2022

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Spatiotemporal characteristics of US floods: Current status and forecast under a future warmer climate
Li et al., Earth's Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef002700

Projected effects of temperature and precipitation variability change on streamflow patterns using a functional flows approach
Patterson et al., Earth's Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002631

The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change
Satoh et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-30729-2

Projected climate change impacts on groundwater recharge in the Urucuia Aquifer System, Brazil
Pereira et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7773

Regional extreme precipitation index: Evaluations and projections from the multi-model ensemble CMIP5 over Thailand
Rojpratak & Supharatid, Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100475

Development of an ensemble Bayesian inference-based copula approach for bivariate risk evaluation of extreme precipitation under climate change
Sun et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7768

Climate change economics

Governing trade: a cross-national study of governance, trade, and CO2 emissions
Hargrove et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 10.1007/s13412-022-00772-y

Managing vulnerability in the Green Climate Fund
Bertilsson, Climate and Development, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2022.2081118

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Country specific low carbon commitments versus equitable and practical company specific decarbonisation targets
Immink et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-021-01854-7

Spatiotemporal development of land use systems, influences and climate variability in Southwestern Ghana (1970–2020)
Sarfo et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-021-01848-5

Multi-scale politics in climate change: the mismatch of authority and capability in federalizing Nepal
Khatri et al., Climate Policy, Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2090891

When does the structural power of business fade? assessing business privileged access at global climate negotiations
Hanegraaff, Environmental Politics, Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2022.2087353

Paris climate agreement and global environmental efficiency: New evidence from fuzzy regression discontinuity design
Salman et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113128

Governing trade: a cross-national study of governance, trade, and CO2 emissions
Hargrove et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 10.1007/s13412-022-00772-y

Cost-effective reduction of fossil energy use in the European transport sector: An assessment of the Fit for 55 Package
Ovaere & Proost, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113085

Policy instruments matter: Support schemes for renewable energy capacity in worldwide comparison
Barnea et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113093

Assessing barriers to the internationalization of China’s certified emission reductions (CCERs): a Delphi survey
Wei & Xiao, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2090892

Fast Action on Short-lived Climate Pollutants and Nature-based Solutions to Help Countries Meet Carbon Neutrality Goals
Sun et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.06.003

Climate pledges versus commitment: Are policy actions of Middle-East and North African countries consistent with their emissions targets?
Abudu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.06.004

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

The role of indigenous knowledge in climate change adaptation in Africa
Leal Filho et al., Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.06.004

Assessing household perception, autonomous adaptation and economic value of adaptation benefits: Evidence from West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia Ehsan et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.06.002

Targeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals
Fuldauer et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31202-w

Urban planning in Swiss cities has been slow to think about climate change: why and what to do?
Desthieux & Joerin, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13412-022-00767-9

Climate change impacts on human health

Heat stress in the Caribbean: climatology, drivers, and trends of human biometeorology indices
Di Napoli et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7774

Association of ambient extreme heat with pediatric morbidity: a scoping review
Uibel et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-022-02310-5

Climate change & geopolitics

Attitudes towards climate migrants in Aotearoa New Zealand: the roles of climate change beliefs and immigration attitudes
Yates et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-01942-y

Other

Multidecadal Water Mass Dynamics on the West Greenland Shelf
Mortensen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc018724

Fake news, real risks: How online discussion and sources of fact-check influence public risk perceptions toward nuclear energy
Ho et al., Risk Analysis, 10.1111/risa.13980

Extreme nitrate deficits in the western Arctic Ocean: Origin, decadal changes, and implications for denitrification on a polar marginal shelf
Zhuang et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007304

Increasing Frequency of Mid-Depth Salinity Maximum Intrusions in the Middle Atlantic Bight
Gawarkiewicz et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021jc018233

Millions of digitized historical sea-level pressure observations rediscovered
Hawkins et al., Geoscience Data Journal, 10.1002/gdj3.163

Microplastics have light-absorbing ability to enhance cryospheric melting
Yu-Lan et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.06.005

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels
Warren et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03277-9

Removing carbon dioxide: first, do no harm
Buesseler et al., Nature, 10.1038/d41586-022-01774-0

The drivers and the implications of marine heatwaves
Carey, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2209393119

 


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change 

Defending Renewable Energy Against Local Opposition in Ohio and New York, Matthew Eisenson, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law

To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has found that, by 2030, the world needs to be installing four times more wind and solar energy per year than the record-breaking levels set in 2020. This will require an immense mobilization of resources. Reaching the target for solar energy alone requires “installing the world’s current largest solar park roughly every day” by 2030. In the United States, local opposition to renewable energy projects is creating additional obstacles to achieving these ambitious targets. This month, the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, in conjunction with the law firm Arnold & Porter LLP and Ohio attorney Trent A. Dougherty, filed two amicus briefs as part of the Renewable Energy Legal Defense Initiative (RELDI) supporting projects and policy.

Gallinas-Las Dispensas Prescribed Fire Declared Wildfire Review, Matthew Eisenson, U.S. Forest Service

The Gallinas Watershed Prescribed Fire, Las Dispensas Unit, is located on the Santa Fe National Forest Pecos-Las Vegas Ranger District in New Mexico. Test fire ignitions began the morning of April 6, 2022. The test fire was determined successful at 12:34, and ignitions continued. The prescribed fire was declared a wildfire (Hermit’s Peak Fire) about four hours later. The review team found that the personnel assigned to the Las Dispensas Prescribed Fire followed their approved prescribed fire plan. There was confidence they were within the approved prescription limits, and they had a plan to suppress the fire and cease ignitions if the prescription parameters were exceeded. However, a post-prescribed fire analysis of fuel and weather revealed that the implementation was occurring under much drier conditions than were recognized. Persistent drought limited overwinter precipitation, less than average snowpack, fine fuel accumulation—post mechanical treatment, and increased heavy fuel loading after fireline preparation all contributed to increasing the risk of fire escape.

New Generation. Building a clean European electricity system by 2035., Rosslowe et al., Ember

The authors explore the least-cost pathways to a clean power system in Europe, compatible with the Paris Agreement climate goals (1.5C). Detailed, country-by-country, hour-by-hour power system modelling confirms the feasibility of almost completely decarbonizing Europe’s power sector by 2035, while expanding the electricity supply. Key metrics are quantified in order to benchmark progress, while accounting for a range of uncertainties. Crucially, the costs of competing routes are assessed, including the costs of developing the power system according to current plans. The authors summarize the results of three modelled pathways for the European power sector. The Stated Policy pathway is aligned with stated national policies until 2035. The other two pathways – Technology Driven and System Change – are computed to minimize cost while remaining within a carbon budget compatible with the Paris Agreement climate goals. The latter two pathways expand clean electrification but differ in their assumptions about available technologies and the levels of energy savings resulting from societal change.

World Energy Investment 2022, International Energy Agency

The report provides a full update on the investment picture in 2021 and full-year estimates of the outlook for 2022. It examines how investors are assessing risks and opportunities across all areas of fuel and electricity supply, critical minerals, efficiency and research and development, against a backdrop of uncertainties over how events will play out in 2022, namely the ongoing war in Ukraine, the outlook for the global economy, and in some countries the continuing public health risks from the pandemic. The report focuses on some important features of the new investment landscape which are already visible, including the energy security lens through which many investments are now viewed, widespread cost pressures, the major boost in revenues that high fuel prices are bringing to traditional suppliers, and burgeoning expectations in many countries that investments will be aligned with solutions to the climate crisis.

Methane Gas Leaks. Frequent leaks are resulting in death, injury and other damage to our health and environment., Dutzik et al., NCPIRG Education Fund, Environment North Carolina and Frontier Group

Methane gas, often known as natural gas, has heated the homes of many Americans for over a century – and for over a century, it has been prone to leaks, putting communities and the environment in danger. With growing awareness of the impact of methane leaks on the climate, and with growing availability of safer alternatives, it is clear that gas has no place in a modern clean energy network. Gas leaks and pipeline incidents are common and put public health and safety at risk. A gas pipeline incident occurs somewhere in the U.S. approximately every 40 hours. Gas leaks contribute to global warming.

The Road Ahead. Toward a Net-Zero-Carbon Transportation. Future Findings and Impact | FY15–FY21., U.S. Department of Energy

The urgent need to decarbonize our transportation system—switching from petroleum-based fuels to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources—has become ever more apparent. While the nation is moving to rapidly boost production of electric vehicles, the transportation of goods and people will still rely heavily on gasoline and diesel fuel for decades to come. In just a few short years, breakthroughs from the recently completed U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Co-Optimization of Fuels & Engines (Co-Optima) initiative could improve cars’ fuel economy by 10% for today’s turbocharged engines and as much as 14% more for advanced engines using multiple combustion modes, compared to a 2015 baseline. At the same time, new bio-based fuel components could produce at least 60% fewer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than those generated by petroleum-based fuels for all on-road vehicles. The report summarizes approaches, findings, and potential impacts of the landmark Co-Optima research. For example, combined with other technology advancements already underway, Co-Optima breakthroughs can help improve fuel economy by 10% or more for light-duty vehicles; trim engine-out criteria pollutant emissions by as much as 99% for medium-duty and heavy-duty engines; and supply new fuel components with greenhouse gas emissions 60% lower than petroleum fuels for all cars and trucks.

Climate Change made devastating early heat in India and Pakistan 30 times more likely, Zachariah et al., World Weather Attribution Initiative

The 2022 heatwave is estimated to have led to at least 90 deaths across India and Pakistan, and to have triggered an extreme glacial lake outburst flood in northern Pakistan and forest fires in India. The heat reduced India’s wheat crop yields, causing the government to reverse an earlier plan to supplement the global wheat supply that has been affected by the war in Ukraine. In India, a shortage of coal led to power outages that limited access to cooling, compounding health impacts and forcing millions of people to use coping mechanisms such as limiting activity to the early morning and evening. Gridded observations that correspond well to station data and capture India and Pakistan are comparably short starting in 1979. The exact return period of such a rare event is thus highly uncertain and depends on the length of the data as well as the fitted distribution. When combining information of the shorter dataset with a dataset that only covers India but for a longer time span starting in 1951 the authors estimate the return period to be around 100 years in today’s climate of 1.2C global warming. The authors thus use 1 in 100 years, as the event definition for the attribution study. To increase the data available and determine the role of climate change in the observed changes the authors combine observations with 20 climate models, and conclude that human-caused climate change made this heatwave hotter and more likely. Because of climate change, the probability of an event such as that in 2022 has increased by a factor of about 30. The same event would have been about 1C cooler in a preindustrial climate.

Application Guide for the 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report, Collini et al., U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The recently released Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines (available here) provides the best available scientific insights regarding how and when sea level is expected to change. However, more accurate and sophisticated science does not directly translate into improved adaptation outcomes. The application guide is a first-of-its-kind effort to bridge this gap. The authors’ goal is to move from information to knowledge, with a focus on empowering those practitioners who must apply this science to decision-making.

U.S. Methane Emissions from Fossil Fuels at Risk of Worsening In 2022, Extending 2021 Trend, Kayrros

Methane emissions from some of the most prolific U.S. oil, natural gas and coal basins look at risk of significantly increasing in 2022 after bouncing back from Covid lows in 2021. Models were run for select oil, natural gas and coal basins historically associated with high methane emissions, including the Permian and Appalachian basins of the U.S., Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Algeria’s Hassi R’Mel natural gas basin and Turkmenistan. The results provide a comprehensive assessment of emissions from these regions, including both “super-emitters” that can be detected and measured from space as well as smaller leaks that may not register individually on satellite imagery but whose cumulative impact over time is measurable.

International Public Opinion on Climate Change, 2022, Leiserowitz et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and Data for Good at Meta

The report describes climate change beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, and behaviors among Facebook users in 110 countries, territories, and geographic groups, hereafter referred to as areas. Overall, these 110 areas represent 192 countries and territories worldwide. The survey was conducted from March 25 – April 14, 2022.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

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Comments

Comments 1 to 5:

  1. I see this as a sort of misplaced approach to this issue, as all this data does little to folks passing by your stand at the swap meet. You are addressing people who may be saying there is no changing happening, and I dont think that remains logical. But some may be saying that to be obstinant or antagonistic. For myself, I dont think that change is happening is hard to see. The crisis stated by all this refers to the hockey puc being a precident in history, and the world will now be ending shortly by a runaway cycle. The train barreling down on a next generations child was the fearsome icon. But the world has experienced this before. That meteor 66 millions years ago ( killed dinosaurs and 3- of every 4 living things on earth) lowered the world 5 degrees overnight and darkened the earth completely sunless for 6 years. 30 degree F drop in 6 years, then swinging higher than previous normal and climbing to 2000-2500ppm once the sun returned. It all came back. My point is that, no matter it happening or the source, the world ( the universe ) balances. More co2 increases foliage (detected by Nasa's MOTIS), more transpiration, more moisture in the air, more low clouds with higher albedo. You will find even more paths of balance if you turn your capable eye to the cycling of nature, meaning the inescapable balance of all cycles. It is physically impossible that the balance is not there, I assure you. I am happy to elaborate more if there is interest. Thanks and best, David

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  2. "It is physically impossible that the balance is not there."

    Yes, and here in the context of CO2 added to the atmosphere that balance is to do with radiative equilibrium. Equilibrium will happen— accompanied by many changes, mostly of an awkward nature as can be seen if one bothers to check research findings. One can easily calculate a ratio of good/bad by following NR, here. The ratio isn't good. 

    "That meteor 66 millions years ago ( killed dinosaurs and 3- of every 4 living things on earth) lowered the world 5 degrees overnight and darkened the earth completely sunless for 6 years. 30 degree F drop in 6 years, then swinging higher than previous normal and climbing to 2000-2500ppm once the sun returned. It all came back."

    After enough death and dying (aka "evolutionary pressure"), everything was fine— right, got it. And the human species is collectively behaving like a brainless rock, yes. How is this good news, consolation, or reassurance? Meanwhile, thinking in geologic time isn't our nature and as well isn't really helpful in terms of dealing with changes happening right now.

    The irony kicker: 

    "More co2 increases foliage (detected by Nasa's MOTIS), more transpiration, more moisture in the air, more low clouds with higher albedo."

    If one bothered to follow NR and rather than instantly singing a comforting cantata of vague hopes instead read only titles and abstracts of papers listed here, one wouldn't make such a glib, facilely optimistic remark. One would know that neither of those claims pencil out as salvation.

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  3. Doug , in one sense Peppers may be correct (if unknowingly).

    In the opinion of the eminent evolutionary biologist Stephen Gould : if we completely trashed the planetary environment, and all mammals and other higher animals died off . . . it would not matter much, because in about 15 million years or so, new life-forms would evolve to take their place.

    A comforting thought !

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  4. Eclectic, indeed it's true.

    Even more, there are about a billion arguably useful (for life-support purposes) years left in our main sequence star. A number of cycles of spectacular folly are left available, though none will likely be so grand as ours given the virgin, ample and easily wasted resource endowment we're chewing up. See the book A Canticle for Leibowitz for a rough picture of how our opportunity may unfold.

    Given that hope is where we flee when we have no plan and instead must consign ourselves to some fate immediately at hand ("I hope I don't sink even though I neglected to install a bilge pump"), I'm not sure that the concept of deeper time unpacks as hopeful. 

    But comforting, yes. Comfort being the term for what we offer the bereaved, when hope is played out. :-) 

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  5. Doug  ~  IIRC the final scene of "Canticle"  was the priest/monk symbolically shaking the dust from his sandals as he entered the Ark-rocket.   As the initial SCOTUS decisions exploded on the horizon . . . or perhaps I am slightly mis-remembering that bit   ;-)

    Interesting times unfolding now : and we mustn't sleep at the wheel.

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