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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #49 2023

Posted on 7 December 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access highlights

Fast upper-level jet stream winds get faster under climate change, Shaw & Miyawaki, Nature Climate Change:

Here we show that fast upper-level jet stream winds get faster under climate change using daily data from climate model projections across a hierarchy of physical complexity. Fast winds also increase ~2.5 times more than the average wind response. We show that the multiplicative increase underlying the fast-get-faster response follows from the nonlinear Clausius–Clapeyron relation (moist-get-moister response). The signal is projected to emerge in both hemispheres by 2050 when considering scenario uncertainty. The results can be used to explain projected changes in commercial flight times, record-breaking winds, clear-air turbulence and a potential increase in severe weather occurrence under climate change.

Long-distance migration and venting of methane from the base of the hydrate stability zone, Davies et al., Nature Geoscience:

Increases in bottom-water temperature at the landward limit of marine hydrate around continental margins, where vulnerable hydrate exists at or below the seabed, cause methane to vent into the ocean. However, this setting represents only ~3.5% of the global hydrate reservoir. The potential for methane from hydrate in deeper water to reach the atmosphere was considered negligible. Here we use three-dimensional (3D) seismic imagery to show that, on the Mauritanian margin, methane migrated at least 40 km below the base of the hydrate stability zone and vented through 23 pockmarks at the shelf break, probably during warmer Quaternary interglacials. We demonstrate that, under suitable circumstances, some of the 96.5% of methane bound in deeper water distal hydrates can reach the seafloor and vent into the ocean beyond the landward limit of marine hydrate.

Anthropogenic Aerosols Offsetting Ocean Warming Less Efficiently Since the 1980s, Sohail et al., Geophysical Research Letters:

We explore the deceleration of aerosol-driven ocean cooling by quantifying a time- and spatially varying ocean heat uptake efficiency, defined as the change in the rate of global ocean heat storage per degree of cooling surface temperature. In aerosol-only simulations, ocean heat uptake efficiency has decreased by 43 ± 14% since 1980. The tropics and sub-tropics have driven this decrease, while the coldest fraction of the ocean continues to sustain cooling and high ocean heat uptake efficiency. Our results identify a growing trend toward less efficient ocean cooling due to aerosols.

Observed changes in hydroclimate attributed to human forcing, Herrera et al., PLOS Climate:

Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

Defense Planning Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Central CommandSudkamp et al., Rand Corporation:

Over the coming decades, stressors from climate change will become more intense and more frequent in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR). This development will likely contribute to CENTCOM's broader shift from a warfighting-focused command to a command that will have to reprioritize and balance how it responds to and conducts both traditional and nontraditional security missions. The authors address how CENTCOM planners can use operations, activities, and investments to prevent — or mitigate the intensity of — climate-related conflict. The causal pathways from climate hazards to conflict revolve around political and economic concerns.

113 articles in 48 journals by 674 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Diversity of Lagged Relationships in Global Means of Surface Temperatures and Radiative Budgets for CMIP6 piControl Simulations, Tsuchida et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0045.1

Do abrupt cryosphere events in High Mountain Asia indicate earlier tipping point than expected?, Xiao et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.006

Evidence lacking for a pending collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Chen & Tung , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01877-0

Fast upper-level jet stream winds get faster under climate change, Shaw & Miyawaki, Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01884-1

Glacial Meltwater in the Current System of Southern Greenland, Beaird et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jc019658

Revisiting the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature response to global warming, Li et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07019-8

State-Dependence of the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in a Clear-Sky GCM, Henry et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104413

Observations of climate change, effects

Local cooling and drying induced by Himalayan glaciers under global warming, Salerno et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-023-01331-y

Observed changes in hydroclimate attributed to human forcing, Herrera et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000303

Regional Characteristics of Attribution Risk on the Record-High-Temperature Event of 2022 Rainy Season in Japan, Ito et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0172.1

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

An improved estimate of daily precipitation from the ERA5 reanalysis, Lavers et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access pdf 10.1002/asl.1200

Features of the New Climate Normal 1991–2020 and Possible Influences on Climate Monitoring and Prediction in China, Xiao-Juan et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.007

Preface to Monitoring the Earth Radiation Budget and Its Implication to Climate Simulations: Recent Advances and Discussions, Montillet et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd040075

Multi-decadal trends and variability in burned area from the 5th version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED5), Chen et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-2023-182

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

CHESS-SCAPE: high-resolution future projections of multiple climate scenarios for the United Kingdom derived from downscaled United Kingdom Climate Projections 2018 regional climate model output, Robinson et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-5371-2023

Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could occur over Europe soon and repeatedly, Suarez-Gutierrez et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01075-y

Land Surface Temperature Sensitivity to Changes in Vegetation Phenology Over Northern Deciduous Forests, Park & Jeong, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007498

Two Competing Drivers of the Recent Walker Circulation Trend, Watanabe et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105332

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Differences Between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration Budgets, Nie et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105265

Examining current bias and future projection consistency of globally downscaled climate projections commonly used in climate impact studies, Berio Fortini et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03623-z

High Values of the Arctic Amplification in the Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation, Chylek et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039269

Improving climate model skill over High Mountain Asia by adapting snow cover parameterization to complex-topography areas, Lalande et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-5095-2023

Model uncertainty in synoptic circulation patterns and precipitation changes in Southern South America using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, Olmo et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2975535/v1

Surface Temperature Pattern Scenarios Suggest Higher Warming Rates Than Current Projections, Alessi & Rugenstein, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105795

The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics, Ahsan et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-14779-2023

Weighting climate models for hydrological projections: effects on contrasting hydroclimatic regions, Castaneda-Gonzalez et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03643-9

Cryosphere & climate change

Committed Ice Loss in the European Alps Until 2050 Using a Deep-Learning-Aided 3D Ice-Flow Model With Data Assimilation, Cook et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105029

Cool ice with hot properties, Fan & Prior, Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-023-01330-z

Committed Ice Loss in the European Alps Until 2050 Using a Deep-Learning-Aided 3D Ice-Flow Model With Data Assimilation, Cook et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105029

Cool ice with hot properties, Fan & Prior, Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-023-01330-z

Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution, Noël et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43584-6

Passive microwave Arctic sea ice melt onset dates from the advanced horizontal range algorithm 1979–2022, Bliss, Scientific Data Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-023-02760-5

Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier, Reed et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01887-y

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Acute heat priming promotes short-term climate resilience of early life stages in a model sea anemone, Glass et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.16574

Climate change alters global invasion vulnerability among ecoregions, Hubbard et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13778

Climate change strongly affects future fire weather danger in Indian forests, Barik & Baidya Roy, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01112-w

Climate change threatens the future viability of translocated populations, Bellis et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13795

Climate warming increases insect-driven seed removal of two elaiosome-bearing invasive thistle species, Drees & Shea, Ecology 10.1002/ecy.4223

Diversity of endemic cold-water amphipods threatened by climate warming in northwestern China, Huang et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13798

Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes, Brodie et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43188-0

Explaining and predicting animal migration under global change, Howard et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13797

Genomic evidence for climatic adaptation in Fejervarya multistriata, Lei et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13796

Habitat-specific impacts of climate change on the trophic demand of a marine predator, Luongo et al., Ecology 10.1002/ecy.4222

Shifting hotspots: Climate change projected to drive contractions and expansions of invasive plant abundance habitats, Evans et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13787

The soil microbiome governs the response of microbial respiration to warming across the globe, Sáez-Sandino et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01868-1

Warming-induced vapor pressure deficit suppression of vegetation growth diminished in northern peatlands, Chen et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-42932-w

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A functional perspective on the factors underpinning biomass-bound carbon stocks in coastal macrophyte communities, Lammerant et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106289

Biological carbon pump estimate based on multidecadal hydrographic data, Wang et al., Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-023-06772-4

Climate Change Will Increase Biomass Proportion of Global Forest Carbon Stocks Under an SSP5–8.5 Climate Trajectory, Mekonnen & Riley, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104612

Divergent data-driven estimates of global soil respiration, Hashimoto et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01136-2

Evaluating metrics for quantifying the climate-change effects of land-based carbon fluxes, Brandão et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-023-02251-0

Global Nitrous Oxide Budget 1980–2020, Tian et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-2023-401

High methane concentrations in tidal salt marsh soils: Where does the methane go?, Capooci et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17050

Hypoxia-tolerant zooplankton may reduce biological carbon pump efficiency in the Humboldt current system off Peru, Engel et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-023-01140-6

Long-distance migration and venting of methane from the base of the hydrate stability zone, Davies et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-023-01333-w

Methane Gas Ebullition Dynamics From Different Subtropical Wetland Vegetation Communities in Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida Are Revealed Using a Multi-Method, Multi-Scale Approach, Sirianni et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007795

Response of erosion-induced carbon loss to rainfall characteristics is forest type dependent, Su et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109835

Satellite observed aboveground carbon dynamics in Africa during 2003–2021, Wang et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113927

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Comment on ‘US power sector carbon capture and storage under the Inflation Reduction Act could be costly with limited or negative abatement potential’, Smith, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad0fee

Experimental study on the flow characteristics of supercritical CO2 in reservoir sandstones from the Ordos Basin, China, Zhu et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2246

How much organic carbon could the soil store? The carbon sequestration potential of Australian soil, Viscarra Rossel et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17053

Reply to ‘A commentary on “US power sector carbon capture and storage under the Inflation Reduction Act could be costly with limited or negative abatement potential”’, Grubert & Sawyer Sawyer Sawyer Yadav, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad0ff1

Two-phase flow behavior in CO2 geological storage considering spatial parameter heterogeneity, Zhong et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2248

Decarbonization

(Path)ways to sustainable living: The impact of the SLIM scenarios on long-term emissions, van den Berg et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102774

Inverted perovskite solar cells with over 2,000 h operational stability at 85 °C using fixed charge passivation, Yang et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01377-7

Net zero emission buildings: a review of academic literature and national roadmaps, Þórólfsdóttir et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad0e80

Aerosols

Anthropogenic Aerosols Offsetting Ocean Warming Less Efficiently Since the 1980s, Sohail et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105374

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Integrating family farmers’ perceptions with meteorological records and national climate change projections to enhance site-specific adaptation knowledge, Enriquez et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-023-10093-2

Less negative impacts of climate change on crop yields in West Africa in the new CMIP6 climate simulations ensemble, Sultan et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000263

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Climate change strongly affects future fire weather danger in Indian forests, Barik & Baidya Roy, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01112-w

Drylands becoming drier: evidence from North Patagonia, Argentina, Hurtado et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-023-02160-w

Global high-resolution drought indices for 1981–2022, Gebrechorkos et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-15-5449-2023

Northern Hemisphere Snow Drought in Earth System Model Simulations and ERA5-Land Data in 1980–2014, Fang & Leung, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039308

Revealing the Key Drivers Conducive to the “Once-In-A-Century” 2021 Peninsular Malaysia Flood, Dong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106112

Why was Pakistan extreme precipitation stronger in 2022 than in 2010?, Yuan et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.016

Climate change economics

Climate change, environmental sustainability, and financial risks: are we close to an understanding?, Migliorelli, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101388

Climate-related financial risks: exploring the known and charting the future, Carè, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101385

Fiscal sustainability in times of climate challenges: a multidimensional approach of the interlinkages between climate change and sovereign debt, Boitan, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101387

Inequality repercussions of financing negative emissions, Andreoni et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01870-7

The decoupling effect between net agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth based on LCA, Wu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04236-3

The regional employment implications of a net-zero economy in Costa Rica under uncertainty, Sauma Chacón et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.017

Climate change and the circular economy

Unlocking the potential of the bioeconomy for climate change reduction: The optimal use of lignocellulosic biomass in Germany, Lubjuhn & Venghaus, Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/jiec.13455

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A coordination failure between EU climate policies exemplified by the North Sea energy island, Kruse-Andersen & Jacobsen Jacobsen, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2023.2287074

Comparative analysis of legal mechanisms to net-zero: lessons from Germany, the United States, Brazil, and China, Merner et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2023.2288592

Feasible supply of steel and cement within a carbon budget is likely to fall short of expected global demand, Watari et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43684-3

Impact of carbon emissions and GDP on air quality: forecast from 20 regions of China, Li & Wu, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04180-2

Important distinctiveness of SSP3–7.0 for use in impact assessments, Shiogama et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01883-2

Local energy transitions as process: How contract management problems stymie a city's sustainable transition to renewable energy, Yang & Dodge, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113893

Misalignment between national resource inventories and policy actions drives unevenness in the energy transition, Owen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01134-4

Referendum as a policy instrument to enhance energy democracy in formulating energy transition path, agenda, and policies: A case study of Taiwan's referendums in 2018 and 2021, Shyu, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113914

Reply to: Evidence lacking for a pending collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Boers, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01878-z

The developmental state's legacy and corporate carbon emission performance: evidence from Taiwanese firms between 2014 and 2018, Pien et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2287743

The interplay between agriculture, greenhouse gases, and climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa, Omotoso & Omotayo, Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02159-3

The mid-transition in the electricity sector: impacts of growing wind and solar electricity on generation costs and natural gas generation in Alberta, Pearson & Hastings-Simon, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad0c3f

Turkey's national renewable energy certificate system: a comparative assessment, Senturk & Ozcan, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04229-2

Which sectors should be covered by the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism? A network analysis, Lin & Zhao, Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.012

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Accessibility in key areas of the Arctic in the 21st mid-century, Chen et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.011

Climate adaptation and resilience indices for the Caribbean region: an assessment of four leading indices, Grant et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2282482

Comparative livelihood vulnerability assessment of villages to climate change in high-altitude cold desert, Ladakh, India, Namgyal & Sarkar, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04232-7

Demographics and risk of isolation due to sea level rise in the United States, Best et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43835-6

Ensuring/insuring resilient energy system infrastructure, Lonergan et al., Environment Systems and Decisions Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10669-023-09928-9

Harnessing indigenous knowledge and practices for effective adaptation in the Sahel, Zougmoré et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101389

Impact of climate change on carbon emissions in future road design: frost protection of roads in temperate climates, Hannasvik et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad0dad

Use of subsidized insurance policy in climate adaptation strategies: the case of pastoral regions in China, Zeren et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2023.2290030

Climate change impacts on human health

Advancing early warning and surveillance for zoonotic diseases under climate change: Interdisciplinary systematic perspectives, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.014

Behavioural (mal)adaptation to extreme heat in Australia: Implications for health and wellbeing, Zander et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101772

Climate change impacts on human culture

Inland shipping response to discharge extremes - a 10 years case study of the Rhine, Vinke et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100578

Other

Unit indicators of the greenhouse effect for CO2 and steam from H2O and anthropogenic impact on the climate, Zhmakin, Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-023-04738-0

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Climate policy in an era of polycrisis and opportunities in systems transformations, Winkler & Jotzo, Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2287284

Critical climate education is crucial for fast and just transformations, Svarstad et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01875-2

Diversifying knowledge for climate change mitigation: Illuminating the common good and desirable futures, Hirt & De Pryck, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000321

Financing negative emissions leads to windfall profits and inequality at net zero, Andreoni et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01871-6

Identifying ecological and evolutionary research targets and risks in climate change studies to break barriers to broad inference, Love et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000320

Net-zero approaches must consider Earth system impacts to achieve climate goals, Zickfeld et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01862-7

Surface Temperature Pattern Scenarios Suggest Higher Warming Rates Than Current Projections, Alessi & Rugenstein, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105795

Terrestrial carbon dynamics in an era of increasing wildfire, Hudiburg et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01881-4


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Planning for an Uncertain Future. What Climate-Related Conflict Could Mean for U.S. Central Command, Sudkamp et al., Rand Corporation

Nearly the entire U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR) faces the compounding effects of accelerating high temperatures, drought, and long-term dryness. Causal pathways from climate events to armed conflict are multistep processes in which climate hazards compound governance and socioeconomic grievances. According to modeling by RAND Corporation researchers, the CENTCOM AOR will experience substantial conflict in the coming half-century. However, that modeling might be underestimating the impact of climate variables on conflict. China and Russia have climate-related tools to leverage in relationships with regional countries. Because the causal pathways from climate hazards to conflict revolve around political and economic concerns, CENTCOM will likely play a supporting role to interagency partners. Supporting partner resilience to climate hazards will strengthen partnerships within the CENTCOM coalition and mitigate conflict risk.

Building Standards. Investigating the ability of 12 building standards to deliver resilient, healthy, and efficient buildings, Emu Passive

The authors show how current building codes fail to deliver resilient and healthy buildings. They also address how Passive building standards today provide a verified alternative path to delivering dependable and efficient shelters.

Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Democratic Republic of the Congo, Iversen et al., Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is faced with a confluence of climate change, environmental degradation, resource exploitation, and conflict dynamics that is exacerbating insecurity in the country. The dual impact of climate change and the global green energy transition risks deepening divisions over resource management and fostering intercommunal conflict over resources such as land and water. Climate-related security risks threaten to undermine human security through increased livelihood and food insecurity and changing patterns of transhumance. For example, the impacts of climate change on agriculture, including temperature rises and precipitation variability, are eroding productivity and leading to heightened food insecurity and vulnerability in the DRC. Armed and inter-communal conflict in the east of the DRC is a key driver of displacement, causing mass population movement and rendering local communities, refugees, and internally displaced persons (IDPs) vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The last five years have also seen a dramatic increase in the number of registered displacements caused by storms and floods. Climate change mitigation efforts and the sustainable management of forest resources are being impeded by ongoing conflict, corruption, and instability in the country. Illegal activities by armed groups, such as illicit mining, logging, and wildlife trading, are contributing to environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. The green energy transition is creating immense global demand for access to minerals such as copper, cobalt, lithium, manganese, rare earth elements, and zinc. The operation of state and non-state armed groups in illegal mining and resource extraction is undermining natural resource governance, causing environmental damage and exacerbating communal tensions.

A Hotter and Drier Future Ahead. An Assessment of Climate Change in U.S. Central Command, Miro et al., Rand Corporation

The authors examine climate change and its impacts on the physical environment to inform operational and longer-term decision-making by the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), with an emphasis on impacts that are relevant to food and water security in 2035, 2050, and 2070. The authors highlight locations that are projected to experience the biggest changes, as well as those that are most exposed to climate hazards. For example, nearly all countries in the CENTCOM AOR (area of responsibility) face the compounding effects of high temperatures, drought, and long-term dryness. These effects are accelerating across the CENTCOM AOR, which spans from Egypt through the Levant and the Arabian Peninsula and from Iran to Central Asia and Pakistan. As the AOR becomes hotter and drier, existing water resources will become scarcer. This could be particularly acute across the region compared with other parts of the world, given existing water scarcity issues and the high degree of tension that already exists around shared water resources.

Pathways from Climate Change to Conflict in U.S. Central Command, Chandler et al., Rand Corporation

The authors present an analysis of how climate change could lead to conflict. Although climate-related conflict can occur anywhere in the world, the authors focus on how this process has occurred and continues to evolve in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR). Much of the CENTCOM AOR is already coping with environmental stress caused by climate change and environmental management practices. Many of the factors associated with conflict, such as weak institutions and hybrid regimes, are present in the AOR, leaving the region vulnerable to the phenomenon of climate-related conflict. Although climate hazards may have direct impacts on violence, the pathways from climate events to war involve multistep processes in which the initial hazard typically triggers several intervening steps before manifesting as high-intensity conflict. The causal pathways from climate hazard to conflict vary but often begin with a hazard that results from a form of insecurity, such as food, livelihood, physical, or health insecurity, that then combines with climate impacts on state capacity, population flows, and other factors. When filtered through individuals' and armed groups' incentives to mobilize around greed or grievance, the impacts of these hazards culminate in conflict. The causal pathways from climate hazards to conflict below the threshold of interstate and intrastate war are the same; what varies is the intensity of the ensuing conflict, not the path to get there.

Conflict Projections in U.S. Central Command. Incorporating Climate Change, Toukan et al., Rand Corporation

The authors address how climate change could affect the frequency of conflict in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR). The authors begin with an examination of how the current literature characterizes the relationship between climate change and the incidence of conflict. Conflict projections are then presented out to 2070 for the AOR at the provincial level. The projections are made based on a machine-learning framework that uses historical data to train and validate a forecasting model. The projections incorporate anticipated changes in temperature and levels of precipitation, although these climate factors are used to complement other known drivers of conflict, such as an area's political and economic development. This is followed by an analysis of why the strength of the relationship between climate change and future conflict could be underestimated by the consensus in the field and the modeling. The authors end with a modeling excursion that shows how drought could increase conflict risk by affecting economic growth.

Mischief, Malevolence, or Indifference? How Competitors and Adversaries Could Exploit Climate-Related Conflict in the U.S. Central Command Area of Responsibility, Shatz, Rand Corporation

Climate change is projected to affect the physical environment of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR) significantly throughout the 21st century and could have consequences for security. How climate change might do this, and what these security consequences might be, are important issues for security planners. U.S. competitors and adversaries could have new opportunities to seek advantages relative to the United States. To understand how China, Russia, and Iran might exploit climate-related conflicts, the authors hosted a two-day workshop that presented nine scenarios with different climate hazards and levels of conflict to a panel of 11 subject-matter experts. The experts were knowledgeable about the overall global strategy, interests, and capabilities of China, Russia, and Iran and were asked to assess how these countries would react to climate-related conflict. This report provides the results of that workshop. China, Russia, and Iran would approach climate-related conflicts in much the same way that they approach other conflicts. China and Russia generally attempt to seek diplomatic solutions, whereas Iran uses its unconventional capabilities in conflicts. The regional experts from the workshop did not engage with climate-specific policy tools in their proposed responses, regardless of whether those tools could be used as sticks or carrots. However, the workshop scenarios illustrated that China and Russia have a set of new climate-related tools to use in relationships with regional countries.

Defense Planning Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Central Command, Sudkamp et al., Rand Corporation

Over the coming decades, stressors from climate change will become more intense and more frequent in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR). This development will likely contribute to CENTCOM's broader shift from a warfighting-focused command to a command that will have to reprioritize and balance how it responds to and conducts both traditional and nontraditional security missions. The authors address how CENTCOM planners can use operations, activities, and investments to prevent — or mitigate the intensity of — climate-related conflict. The causal pathways from climate hazards to conflict revolve around political and economic concerns. CENTCOM will likely play a supporting role to interagency partners in reducing the risk of climate-related conflict. Military-led operations, activities, and investments provide some niche tools to interrupt the progression along those causal pathways and could decrease the severity of conflicts by improving U.S. and partner response capabilities. In addition to mitigating conflict risk, CENTCOM has an opportunity to develop partner resilience to climate hazards, with the ancillary benefit of strengthening bonds within the CENTCOM coalition.

Deny Deceive Delay, Climate Action Against Misinformation

2023 has been another year of unprecedented temperatures, extreme weather events and disasters compounded by climate change. After the warmest summer on record and an equally benchmark-setting October, scientists now estimate this will be the hottest year since 1940 at a global level. The world has witnessed historic heatwaves and storms, as well as the worst drought in East Africa for 40 years and wildfires which blazed a devastating trail across Canada, Greece, Spain, Portugal and the United States. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there were 23 ‘billion-dollar weather and climate disasters’ in the US alone from January-August 2023, and the World Meteorological Organisation has projected that such events will become the “new norm”.

Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate: Priority Actions & Research Needs, Parker et al., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

In a changing climate, the intensity, duration, and frequency of droughts may change. This poses new challenges for drought assessment. Current methods for assessing drought conditions do not consistently and deliberately consider drought in the context of climate change, thereby unintentionally promoting drought response strategies that are limited in building long-term resilience in a changing climate. The authors identify some of the most pressing and strategic areas of research and action to advance the knowledge and understanding of drought assessment. Among the areas of research and action are the following: an emphasis on equity and justice in our investments in drought monitoring, observational networks, and assessment products; improved descriptions of how non-stationarity and low-frequency variability should shape the expectation for future water demands and drought frequency, intensity, and duration; improved understanding of how drought indicators relate to potential future impacts on the ground, especially across diverse communities and businesses and in the context of compounding or cascading climate hazards; improved understanding of the utility and application of drought assessments for decision-making as they manage drought risks; and a holistic view of drought risk that combines physical information about water resources with an understanding of different communities’ exposure and vulnerability.

Report of the World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology (COMEST) on the ethics of climate engineering, World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology

The current speed at which the effects of global warming are increasingly being manifested is giving new life to the discussion on the kinds of climate action best suited to tackle the catastrophic consequences of climate change. The temperature targets adopted as part of the Paris Agreement in 2015 gave new attention to a highly controversial set of proposals for potential climate engineering actions. So-called climate engineering measures seek to counteract global warming not by cutting greenhouse emissions but by intervening in the climate system directly, either by drawing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere (Carbon Dioxide Removal, or CDR), or by allowing more infrared radiation to escape into space or reflecting incoming sunlight to space (Solar Radiation Modification, or SRM). While SRM approaches are presently the more controversial of the two approaches, some experts have begun to suggest that these measures, too, might become necessary to avoid dangerous climate tipping points or to bring the temperature back down after an overshoot. In light of the development of these climate-altering technologies, calls for a thorough assessment of the ethical, social, and cultural implications of climate engineering have grown louder. The authors respond to these demands. Building on the set of reports on ethical principles for climate change already developed in 2010-2015, the authors focus on developing a comprehensive perspective on the ethics of climate action, specifically, climate engineering.

Misinforming Latin America: narrative analysis of extreme weather in Brazil, Chile and Peru, Purpose for Roots, Friends of the Earth and Climate Action Against Disinformation

Extreme weather events like floods, cyclones, wildfires, and heatwaves, are some of the worst catastrophes impacting societies, reshaping people’s lives and landscapes as they pass through. The authors' research shows that actors including local politicians and their followers are using these events as opportunities to sow confusion and direct political and social energy away from progressive climate action. At a time when governments and communities most need access to reliable information, to enable action to reduce emissions and improve climate preparedness, they instead face misinformation across multiple platforms and from local leadership. This creates a significant danger that communities can become paralyzed by recrimination and conspiracy. To better understand and distinguish these trends, the authors analyzed the dynamics and trends of climate misinformation around extreme weather events in Latin America. They assessed 14 extreme weather events which occurred in 2022 and 2023, and selected three cases where misinformation narratives dominated the public discourse. The three events that were reviewed were in Peru, Chile and Brazil, and while geographically distinct, they had similar characteristics, providing wider findings about the dynamics of mis- and disinformation as they relate to extreme weather in Latin America.

Corporate Advocacy on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). How the Oil and Gas Sector is Influencing the Global Agenda on CCS and Fossil Fuel Phase-ou, InfluenceMap

New analysis shows that most corporate advocacy promoting carbon capture and storage (CCS) for addressing climate change is not aligned with pathways recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C or well below 2°C. The authors track the climate policy engagement of over 500 of the world’s largest companies and 250 industry associations. They examine corporate advocacy on CCS, i.e., attempts to influence CCS-related policy or to push for CCS inclusion in climate policies where it was not originally intended to have a significant role. Corporate advocacy in favor of CCS between 2021 and 2023 has been dominated by the oil and gas sector, which uses a wide range of influence tactics – from public relations and advertising to regulatory lobbying – to promote the technology. Entities that appear most active on CCS-related policy include companies such as Occidental Petroleum, ExxonMobil, Shell, and BP, and industry associations. The authors identify three common claims that appear across corporate advocacy on CCS: that CCS allows for continued oil and gas expansion; that CCS is central to meeting global climate targets; and that CCS can support jobs and communities. These claims have been pushed by the fossil fuel sector at international and regional levels with the ultimate impact of capturing the global narrative on the role of CCS, misdirecting policy attention away from fossil fuel phase-out, and enabling policy and investment decisions based on "business-as-usual" assumptions for the oil and gas sector.

Fourth Quarter. A Game Plan for in the Last Year of President Biden’s First Term Executive Climate Action, Evergreen Collaborative

To meet the demands of this moment, the demands of a climate crisis that waits for no one, and the commitments President Biden made to the American people, the administration still has much to accomplish in the months ahead. With just a year left in his first term, and the public demanding even more progress, it is time for the movement and the administration to accelerate action to meet the president’s climate commitments—not only to cut climate, air, and water pollution but also to deliver for Black, Indigenous, and People of Color, and low-income communities who have both borne the brunt of the climate crisis and often been sidelined in processes to address it. These are the three key actions the administration must prioritize in the next year; finalize key climate standards in their strongest possible form; Equitably and effectively align climate investments; and strategically exercise executive authority to bring the whole of government on board.

Vision 2050/ Strategies to Align Global Road Transport with Well Below 2°C, Sen at al., FIA Foundation and the International Council on Clean Transportation

Since 2020, the world has had a remaining carbon budget of 400 billion tonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide (CO2) to have a likely chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The same carbon budget for 1.7°C is 700 Gt CO2 and for 2°C, it is 1,150 Gt CO2. Road vehicles account for more than 20% of the carbon emissions from human activities, considering both fuel production and combustion. The authors explore the potential of a combination of five strategies to further reduce carbon emissions from vehicles. They found that a combination of all five strategies could cut cumulative CO2 emissions from vehicles in half through 2050 compared with a Baseline scenario. That “All Out” scenario would save 144 Gt CO2 and align the sector with a warming target well below 2°C.

The Inflation Reduction Act: A Place-Based Analysis, Eric Van Nostrand and Matthew Ashenfarb, US. Department of the Treasury

Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) investments are delivering more clean investment to left-behind places, communities at the forefront of fossil fuel energy production, and those that have benefited least from the economic growth of the past few decades. The IRA’s combined focus on expanding our productive capacity, mitigating climate change, and addressing inequality is central to the strategy Secretary Yellen has called “modern supply-side economics.” The authors analyze the geographic and socioeconomic distribution of clean investment announcements using data from the Clean Investment Monitor (CIM). The CIM is a joint product of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Rhodium Group that catalogs and maps U.S. clean energy investments before and after the IRA passed. 81% of clean investment dollars announced since the IRA passed have been for projects in counties with below-average weekly wages. 86% of clean investment dollars since the IRA passed are landing in counties with below-average college graduation rates. 70% of clean investment dollars, since the IRA passed, are in counties where a smaller share of the population is employed. 78% of clean investment dollars, since the IRA passed, are in counties with below-average median household incomes.

Global drought snapshot 2023: The need for immediate action, Tsegai et al., International Drought Resilience Alliance and United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification

To combat the negative effects of drought, global drought resilience is not a matter of choice but a necessity. By prioritizing proactive measures, holistic landscape restoration, sustainable water management, regenerative agricultural practices, and disaster preparedness, countries can reduce their vulnerability to drought and regenerate healthy ecological systems that all of humanity relies on for its well-being. By taking collective action, the negative impacts of drought can be mitigated and ensure a better future for generations to come. Drought knows no boundaries, affecting both developed and developing countries around the world. Its impact goes far beyond the immediate lack of water, as it engulfs communities and ecosystems in a pervasive web of interconnected destruction. Drought affects people from all walks of life. It has a disproportionate impact on vulnerable communities. Rural areas with limited access to water resources and inadequate infrastructure often bear the brunt of drought. Smallholder farmers, indigenous peoples, and marginalized groups face immense challenges in sustaining their livelihoods during prolonged dry spells. Studies also revealed that women and girls carry the major burden of such impacts. Drought has serious economic consequences, both locally and globally. In agriculture-dependent regions, drought-related crop failures lead to food shortages and often skyrocketing prices. Livelihoods are destroyed, with farmers and pastoralists struggling to sustain their way of life. This affects local communities and can also potentially disrupt global food supply chains. The economic losses associated with drought are estimated to be in the billions of dollars annually. To combat the negative effects of drought, global drought resilience is essential.

COP, Look, Listen: Special Edition (1) .The Growing Threat to Climate Activists, Climate Action Against Disinformation

In recent years, groups like Just Stop Oil, Extinction Rebellion, Fridays for Future, and Last Generation have raised the profile of climate protest across the Global North. In tandem, they have generated controversy over their tactics and messaging. There is a debate over whether disruptive protests are, on balance, the most effective route for advocacy, or if they can serve to alienate a ‘mainstream’ audience. If these groups aim to increase visibility and build public pressure for action, such questions can and should be explored in good faith. However, whether you support civil disobedience or balk at it, violence against activists should never be accepted. Labeling climate activists as "extremists", “lunatics” or “zealots” is common amongst right-wing media, as well as calls to proscribe environmental groups as “terrorist entities”. Vilifying activists is also a well-worn and explicit strategy used by groups like the Atlas Network – a U.S.-based non-profit supporting over 500 “free market” think tanks and organizations across the globe. However, the problem extends beyond mere rhetoric or posturing, with these narratives becoming normalized by political actors and law enforcement alike.

Readers foir Sale. The Media's Role in Climate Delay, Westervelt et al., Drilled and DeSmog

The advertorial—an opinion piece paid for by a company and run alongside editorial content in newspapers and magazines—was invented by Mobil Oil’s long-time vice president of public affairs, Herbert Schmertz, with the help of The New York Times, in 1970. What Mobil did was not just shift where their ads turned up or the format they took, they fundamentally changed what they were advertising, from a line of products—gasoline, motor oil, and so forth—to a set of ideas about how the world should work, from the economy to the environment to the policies governing both. Today, almost every major media outlet offers not only the space for corporations to run advertorials, but also a creative team ready to write those advertorials and create graphics, videos, and podcasts to go with it. For example, in 2022 alone, ExxonMobil sponsored more than 300 editions of Washington Post newsletters.

Inverter-Based Resource Performance Issues Report. Findings from the Level 2 Alert, North American Electric Reliability Corporation

Numerous disturbance reports provide strong evidence of systemic deficiencies in the performance of inverter-based resources (IBR) during grid events. Furthermore, conclusions include deficiencies in modeling and study accuracy of IBR integration and performance, observed in solar photovoltaic (PV), battery energy storage systems (BESS), and wind resources. However, the performance deficiencies appear to be of greatest risk in BPS connected solar PV resources. The authors provide strong recommendations for Generator Owners (GOs) of all BPS-connected IBR facilities to improve performance of their resources. The alert also required GOs of BPS-connected solar PV facilities to provide site-specific information via a data submission worksheet.

Prado Dam Forecst Informed Reservoir Operations Final Viability Assessment, Ralph et al., University of California, San Diego

The authors describes how forecasting tools can allow operators to increase the volume of stormwater that is temporarily retained behind Prado Dam and released later at a rate that allows recharge into the Orange County, California, groundwater basin to enhance water supply. Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations enables the optimization of stormwater capture at Prado Dam through advanced forecasting of atmospheric rivers. These forecasts are crucial in managing both beneficial precipitation and flood risks in California particularly under climate change.

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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

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The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

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Comments

Comments 1 to 3:

  1. This MSN article, Which is apparently a press release from the Columbia Climate school describes a paper in Science.  The paper is a collaboration of many scientists summarizing knowledge of CO2 concentrations for the past 65 million years.  The MSN article is easy to read.  Since it is a press release it would be a good OP here at SkS.  I have not yet read the paper.

    Unfortunately, they conclude that Earth system sensitivity, the climate response when all slow feedbacks respond, is 5-8 C.  The processes involved can take a long time to equilibrate (as much as thousands of years).  Still, it is a very grim conclusion.  I note that Dr. Hansen has long held an Earth System Sensitivity of 6 C.  The IPCC consensus has been 3C.  This is unlikely to affect  anyone living but bodes very bad for 1000 years from now.  The question of how long the slow processes take to equilibrate is left unanswered.

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  2. MS Sweet. Good information to know. 

    "I note that Dr. Hansen has long held an Earth System Sensitivity of 6 C. The IPCC consensus has been 3C"

    The IPCC number is "equilibrium climate sensitivity", a different thing from earth system sensativity  as below. Making it hard to compare the two numbers. 

    "By definition, equilibrium climate sensitivity does not include feedbacks that take millennia to emerge, such as long-term changes in Earth's albedo because of changes in ice sheets and vegetation. It includes the slow response of the deep oceans' warming, which also takes millennia, and so ECS fails to reflect the actual future warming that would occur if CO2 is stabilized at double pre-industrial values.[38] Earth system sensitivity (ESS) incorporates the effects of these slower feedback loops, such as the change in Earth's albedo from the melting of large continental ice sheets, which covered much of the Northern Hemisphere during the Last Glacial Maximum and still cover Greenland and Antarctica)...."

    (Climate sensitivity, wikipedia)

    We will probably never know any of these numbers for sure because you can't put the planet in the laboratory. (Although I think paleo studies like the one you posted have a lot of credibility - because they are based on real world conditions). But IMHO that uncertainty is not necessarily a crucial problem. Current rates of warming are bad and are having very visible effects, and huge implicatrion in the short to medium term, and so whatever the level of climate sensitivity using whatever definition, we clearly have a huge problem.

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  3. Michael: This is unlikely to affect anyone living but bodes very bad for 1000 years from now.

    I like to imagine we'll do better with the next 5,000 years of attempted civilization than we've done with the past 5,000 years. From that perspective it's concerning. 

    More basically: don't trash borrowed things. Somebody else is in line. 

    Technical note: I sure like the "structured abstract" approach in Science. The article itself is obfuscated but the payload "for the rest of us" gets through. We only have to take it on faith that it's faithful to the actual item. :-)

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