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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #5 2024

Posted on 1 February 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

The Weather–Climate Schism, Randall & Emanuel, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (perspective):

The atmospheric science community includes both weather and climate scientists. These two groups interact much less than they should, particularly in the United States. The schism is widespread and has persisted for 50 years or more. It is found in academic departments, laboratories, professional societies, and even funding agencies. Mending the schism would promote better, fasTter science. We sketch the history of the schism and suggest ways to make our community whole.

Bayesian Estimation of Advanced Warning Time of Precipitation Emergence, Lickley & Fletcher, Earth's Future:

Our approach uses individual model projections that show change before averaging across models to calculate ToE. It then applies a Bayesian method to constrain uncertainty from climate model ensembles using a perfect model approach. Results demonstrate the potential for widespread and decades-earlier precipitation emergence, with potential for end-of-century emergence to occur across 99% of the Earth compared to 60% in previous estimates. Our method reduces uncertainty in the direction of change across 8% of the globe. We find positive estimates of AWT across most of the Earth; however, in 34% of regions there is potential for no advanced warning before new precipitation regimes emerge. These estimates can guide adaptation planning, reducing the risk that policymakers are unprepared for precipitation changes that occur earlier than expected.

How Economics Can Tackle the ‘Wicked Problem’ of Climate ChangeStiglitz et al., School of International and Public Affairs/Institute of Global Politics, Columbia University (from this week's government/NGO section):

Addressing the harmful effects of climate change requires an understanding of economic tradeoffs, the politics of policymaking, and the strategy of diplomacy. While early prescriptions for climate solutions focused on idealistic “optimal” policies and all-encompassing global treaties, a more nuanced and realistic vision for climate progress has emerged. As befits a “wicked problem,” a wide range of policies and insights from across scientific disciplines are needed to promote collective action, reduce emissions, and help the world achieve a more sustainable future.

The Russia-Ukraine war decreases food affordability but could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, van Meijl et al., Communications Earth & Environment:

The scenarios assess the possible consequences of macro-economic and agricultural production impacts in Ukraine, trade sanctions against Russia, and conflict-related energy price developments for global trade, food security, and greenhouse gas emissions. From a food security perspective, we conclude that there is enough food on the global level, but higher food and energy prices cause problems for low-income populations, spending a large part of their income on staple foods. Agricultural production and area expansion in parts of the world other than Ukraine and Russia could pose a risk to biodiversity and lead to higher greenhouse gas emissions related to land. However, total greenhouse gas emissions might decrease as lower emissions from less use of fossil energy due to higher energy and fertilizer prices in the whole economy dominate additional emissions resulting from land use change.

High-altitude glacier archives lost due to climate change-related melting, Huber et al., Nature Geoscience 

Global warming has caused widespread surface lowering of mountain glaciers. By comparing two firn cores collected in 2018 and 2020 from Corbassière glacier in Switzerland, we demonstrate how vulnerable these precious archives of past environmental conditions have become. Within two years, the soluble impurity records were destroyed by melting. The glacier is now irrevocably lost as an archive for reconstructing major atmospheric aerosol components.

Searching for the Most Extreme Temperature Events in Recent History, Cattiaux et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:

Here we present an original method that objectively selects, defines, and compares extreme events that have occurred worldwide in the recent years. Building on previous work, the event definition consists of automatically selecting the spatiotemporal scale that maximizes the event rarity, accounting for the nonstationary context of climate change. We then explore all years, seasons, and regions and search for the most extreme events. We demonstrate how our searching procedure can be both useful for climate monitoring over a given territory, and resolve the geographical selection bias of attribution studies. Ultimately, we provide a selection of the most exceptional hot and cold events in the recent past, among which are iconic heatwaves such as those seen in 2021 in Canada and in 2003 in Europe.

134 articles in 59 journals by 833 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Hurricane track trends and environmental flow patterns under surface temperature changes and roughness length variations, Romdhani et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100645

Influence of boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations on the occurrences of Marine Heatwave events over the North Bay of Bengal, Mandal et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-023-06945-x

Radiative effect of thin cirrus clouds in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere and tropopause region, Spang et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-1213-2024

The Respective Roles of Ocean Heat Transport and Surface Heat Fluxes in Driving Arctic Ocean Warming and Sea Ice Decline, Oldenburg et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0399.1

Observations of climate change, effects

A decade of marine inorganic carbon chemistry observations in the northern Gulf of Alaska – Insights to an environment in transition, Monacci et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-16-647-2024

Anthropogenic Contribution to the Unprecedented 2022 Midsummer Extreme High-Temperature Event in Southern China, Cao et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0199.1

Changes in regional daily precipitation intensity and spatial structure from global reanalyses, Lussana et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8375

High-altitude glacier archives lost due to climate change-related melting, Huber et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-023-01366-1

Late-Winter and Springtime Temperature Variations throughout New Jersey in a Warming Climate, Garner & Duran, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-23-0152.1

Pacific tropical instability waves have intensified since the 1990s, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01916-w

Temporal characteristics of cold waves hazard frequency in northwest of Iran and Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation impacts, Ghavidel & Motalebizad, Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-023-06391-2

Uneven evolution of regional European summer heatwaves under climate change, Khodayar Pardo & Paredes-Fortuny Paredes-Fortuny, Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100648

Warming of the Kuroshio Current Over the Last Four Decades has Intensified the Meiyu-Baiu Rainband, Qiao et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107021

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Analysis of climatic extremes in the Parnaíba River Basin, Northeast Brazil, using GPM IMERG-V6 products., Batista et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100646

Evaluating the h-index as a climate metric for the Arabian Peninsula, Alghamdi & Harrington Jr, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8378

Evaluation of the highest temperature WMO region VI Europe (continental): 48.8°C, Siracusa Sicilia, Italy on August 11, 2021, Merlone et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8361

Monitoring Earth’s climate variables with satellite laser altimetry, Magruder et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-023-00508-8

Searching for the Most Extreme Temperature Events in Recent History, Cattiaux et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0095.1

Uncertainty of Atmospheric Winds in Three Widely Used Global Reanalysis Datasets, Wu et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-22-0198.1

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

A CMIP6 Analysis of Past and Future Arctic Winter Stratospheric Temperature Trends, Bloxam & Huang, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039866

A computationally efficient statistically downscaled 100 m resolution Greenland product from the regional climate model MAR, Tedesco et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023

Climate Change in the Thermosphere and Ionosphere From the Early Twentieth Century to Early Twenty-First Century Simulated by the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model—eXtended, McInerney et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039397

Effects of CO $$&2$$ vegetation forcing on precipitation and heat extremes in China, Chen et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07046-5

Enhanced future vegetation growth with elevated carbon dioxide concentrations could increase fire activity, Allen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01228-7

Future trends in the vertical structure of Arctic warming and moistening in different emission scenarios, Nie et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107271

Historical and future maximum sea surface temperatures, Cael et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adj5569

Hurricane track trends and environmental flow patterns under surface temperature changes and roughness length variations, Romdhani et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100645

Increasing risks of extreme salt intrusion events across European estuaries in a warming climate, Lee et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01225-w

Larger Cloud Liquid Water Enhances Both Aerosol Indirect Forcing and Cloud Radiative Feedback in Two Earth System Models, Zhao et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105529

On the heat waves over India and their future projections under different SSP scenarios from CMIP6 models, Norgate et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8367

Projected amplification of summer marine heatwaves in a warming Northeast Pacific Ocean, Athanase et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01212-1

Projections of winter polynyas and their biophysical impacts in the Ross Sea Antarctica, DuVivier et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-06951-z

Statistical downscaling of maximum temperature under CMIP6 global climate models and evaluation of heat wave events using deep learning methods for Indo-Gangetic Plain, Chaturvedi et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8366

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Advancing South American Water and Climate Science through Multidecadal Convection-Permitting Modeling, Dominguez et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0226.1

Air-sea coupling influence on projected changes in major Atlantic hurricane events, Danso et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100649

Bayesian Estimation of Advanced Warning Time of Precipitation Emergence, Lickley & Fletcher, Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004079

Dynamical downscaling of CMIP6 scenarios with ENEA-REG: an impact-oriented application for the Med-CORDEX region, Anav et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07064-3

Evaluating skill in predicting the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in initialized decadal climate prediction hindcasts in E3SMv1 and CESM1 using two different initialization methods and a small set of start years, Meehl et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-06970-w

Identification of Shortcomings in Simulating the Subseasonal Reversal of the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Pattern, Xu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105430

Impact of acidity and surface-modulated acid dissociation on cloud response to organic aerosol, Sengupta et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-24-1467-2024

Machine Learning for Online Sea Ice Bias Correction Within Global Ice-Ocean Simulations, Gregory et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106776

Robustness of climate indices relevant for agriculture in Africa deduced from GCMs and RCMs against reanalysis and gridded observations, Abel et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-06956-8

Skillful multiyear prediction of marine habitat shifts jointly constrained by ocean temperature and dissolved oxygen, Chen et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45016-5

Cryosphere & climate change

High-altitude glacier archives lost due to climate change-related melting, Huber et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-023-01366-1

Large mercury release from the Greenland Ice Sheet invalidated, Jørgensen et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adi7760

The evolution of Arctic permafrost over the last 3 centuries from ensemble simulations with the CryoGridLite permafrost model, Langer et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-363-2024

The Response of Surface Temperature Persistence to Arctic Sea-Ice Loss, Lewis et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106863

Sea level & climate change

Influence of Deep-Ocean Warming on Coastal Sea-Level Decadal Trends in the Gulf of Mexico, Steinberg et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jc019681

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

A High Arctic inner shelf–fjord system from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present: Bessel Fjord and southwest Dove Bugt, northeastern Greenland, Zoller et al., Climate of the Past Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-19-1321-2023

Climate change, society, and pandemic disease in Roman Italy between 200 BCE and 600 CE, Zonneveld et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adk1033

High-altitude glacier archives lost due to climate change-related melting, Huber et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-023-01366-1

Proto-monsoon rainfall and greening in Central Asia due to extreme early Eocene warmth, Meijer et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-023-01371-4

The southward migration of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current enhanced oceanic degassing of carbon dioxide during the last two deglaciations, Ai et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01216-x

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Climate anomalies and neighbourhood crowding interact in shaping tree growth in old-growth and selectively logged tropical forests, Nemetschek et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.14256

Effects of climate, land use, and human population change on human–elephant conflict risk in Africa and Asia, Guarnieri et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2312569121

Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range, Couper et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1098/rspb.2023.2457

Remote sensing monitoring of the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban forest phenology and its response to climate and urbanization, Hu et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101810

Skillful multiyear prediction of marine habitat shifts jointly constrained by ocean temperature and dissolved oxygen, Chen et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45016-5

Sparse modeling for climate variable selection across trophic levels, Grames & Forister, Ecology 10.1002/ecy.4231

Spring protistan communities in response to warming in the northeastern East China sea, Seo et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106376

Temperature seasonality drives taxonomic and functional homogenization of tropical butterflies, Hulshof et al., Diversity and Distributions 10.1111/ddi.13814

The biodiversity adaptation gap: Management actions for marine protected areas in the face of climate change, Corelli et al., Conservation Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/conl.13003

The eco-evolutionary risks of not changing seed provenancing practices in changing environments, Jordan et al., Ecology Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/ele.14348

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Country-level estimates of gross and net carbon fluxes from land use, land-use change and forestry, Obermeier et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-605-2024

Cross-Shelf Carbon Transport in the East China Sea and Its Future Trend Under Global Warming, Hao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2022jc019403

Global cropland nitrous oxide emissions in fallow period are comparable to growing-season emissions, Shang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17165

Investigating the differences in calculating global mean surface CO2 abundance: the impact of analysis methodologies and site selection, Wu et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-1249-2024

Revealing the hidden carbon in forested wetland soils, Stewart et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-44888-x

Soil organic matter on arid saline-alkali land drives greenhouse gas emissions from artificial and natural grasslands in different directions, Wei et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1338180

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Spatial variations in heterotrophic respiration from oil palm plantations on tropical peat soils, Manning et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1236566

Temperature sensitivity of organic carbon decomposition in lake sediments is mediated by chemodiversity, Wen et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17158

The global-scale impacts of metallic nanoparticles on soil carbon dioxide emissions, He et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17164

The Influence of Air-Sea CO2 Disequilibrium on Carbon Sequestration by the Ocean's Biological Pump, Nowicki et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb007880

Total organic carbon measurements reveal major gaps in petrochemical emissions reporting, He et al., Science Open Access pdf 10.1126/science.adj6233

Decarbonization

A rechargeable Ca/Cl2 battery, Geng et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45347-3

Agri-PV in Portugal: How to combine agriculture and photovoltaic production, Ferreira et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101408

All-Inorganic Perovskite Solar Cells: Modification Strategies and Challenges, Li et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.202300263

Assessment the long-term performance ratio maps of three grid-connected photovoltaic systems in the Moroccan climate, Aarich et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101388

Optimal energy system configuration for zero energy buildings using hybrid thermal-photovoltaic solar collector, Babaelahi & Kazemi, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04344-0

Redox mediator-stabilized wide-bandgap perovskites for monolithic perovskite-organic tandem solar cells, Wu et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-024-01451-8

Climate change communications & cognition

Conversational AI and equity through assessing GPT-3’s communication with diverse social groups on contentious topics, Chen et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-51969-w

Influence of climate change beliefs on adolescent food saving behavior: mechanisms mediating environmental concerns, Zong et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-023-04454-9

Pro-Environmental Nationalism is Still Nationalism: How Political Identity and Prior Attitudes Affect Nationalist Framing Effects on Support for Climate Action, Bogado, Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2024.2310625

The where, how, and who of mitigating climate change: A targeted research agenda for psychology, Gurtner & Moser, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102250

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A restatement of the natural science evidence base concerning grassland management, grazing livestock and soil carbon storage, Jordon et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1098/rspb.2023.2669

Agri-PV in Portugal: How to combine agriculture and photovoltaic production, Ferreira et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101408

Climate smart agriculture? Adaptation strategies of traditional agriculture to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa, Okoronkwo et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1272320

Coping with climate change: an analysis of farmers’ adoption behavior and its impact on production efficiency, Zhu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04445-w

Crop index insurance as a tool for climate resilience: lessons from smallholder farmers in Nigeria, Aina et al., Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-023-06388-x

Exploration and countermeasures for the development of low-carbon agriculture: a study from Chongming District, Shanghai, Song & Dou, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2024.1345230

Global cropland nitrous oxide emissions in fallow period are comparable to growing-season emissions, Shang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17165

Transition to cellular agriculture reduces agriculture land use and greenhouse gas emissions but increases demand for critical materials, El Wali et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01227-8

Working for the environment: farmer attitudes towards sustainable farming actions in rural Wales, UK, Follett et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-024-04459-y

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Bayesian Estimation of Advanced Warning Time of Precipitation Emergence, Lickley & Fletcher, Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004079

Changes in regional daily precipitation intensity and spatial structure from global reanalyses, Lussana et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8375

Drought projections for the NW Iberian Peninsula under climate change, Alvarez et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07084-z

Enhanced Impacts of ENSO on the Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon Under Global Warming and Associated Mechanisms, Lin et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106437

Exposure of Global Rail and Road Infrastructures in Future Record-Breaking Climate Extremes, Wang et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003632

Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil, Ballarin et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004053

Global extreme precipitation characteristics: the perspective of climate and large river basins, Zhao et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-023-06961-x

Improving Boreal Summer Precipitation Predictions From the Global NMME Through Res34-Unet, Tong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106391

Increasing risks of extreme salt intrusion events across European estuaries in a warming climate, Lee et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01225-w

Integrating Climatological-Hydrodynamic Modeling and Paleohurricane Records to Assess Storm Surge Risk, Begmohammadi et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jc020354

Projections patterns of precipitation concentration under climate change scenarios, Ashrafi et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06403-9

Rising rainfall intensity induces spatially divergent hydrological changes within a large river basin, Wu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44562-8

Spatiotemporal variability and trends of droughts in the Mediterranean coastal region of Türkiye, Kesgin et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8370

The intensification of flash droughts across China from 1981 to 2021, Zhang et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-06980-8

The Nature-Based Solutions and climate change scenarios toward flood risk management in the greater Athens area—Greece, Theochari & Baltas, Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-024-06409-3

The recent trends in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Konwar et al., Geophysical Research Letters 10.1029/2012gl052018

Warming of the Kuroshio Current Over the Last Four Decades has Intensified the Meiyu-Baiu Rainband, Qiao et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107021

Climate change economics

Discounting the Future: On Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein–Zin Preferences, Olijslagers & van Wijnbergen van Wijnbergen, Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-023-00832-z

Economic performance and carbon emissions: revisiting the role of tourism and energy efficiency for BRICS economies, Alfaisal et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-04394-4

Insurance and climate change, Adams & Dixon, Monash Business Review Open Access pdf 10.2104/mbr07031

The Macroeconomic Impact of Global and Country-Specific Climate Risk, Byrne & Vitenu-Sackey, Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-023-00831-0

Climate change and the circular economy

Sustainable green circular economic model with controllable waste and emission in healthcare system, Suthagar & Mishra, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04254-1

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A multi-framework analysis of stakeholders’ perceptions in developing a localized blue carbon ecosystems strategy in Eastern Samar, Philippines, Quevedo et al., Ambio 10.1007/s13280-023-01972-8

Assessing energy, economic, environmental and social impacts of fostering energy efficiency technologies: a Portuguese case study, Tenente et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-04416-1

Climate-biodiversity nexus in transnational climate governance: variation across net zero initiatives, Sun & Page, Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2024.2306895

Collective action lessons for the energy transition: learning from social movements of the past, Djinlev & Pearce, Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01455-5

Coordinated development of rural ecological construction and carbon neutrality: a deep learning approach for enhanced sustainability, Li & Feng, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2023.1267259

Does agriculture, forests, and energy consumption foster the carbon emissions and ecological footprint? fresh evidence from BRICS economies, Yasin et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04456-7

Green with Envy? Hydrogen production in a carbon-constrained world, Droessler & Leach Droessler, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.113982

Promoting pro-environmental choices while addressing energy poverty, Della Valle et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113967

Regulatory disparities disadvantage remote Australian communities in energy transition, White et al., Nature Energy Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-023-01433-2

Regulatory Stringency and Emission Leakage Mitigation, Antoniou et al., Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-023-00837-8

Sensitivity of air quality model responses to emission changes: comparison of results based on four EU inventories through FAIRMODE benchmarking methodology, de Meij et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-587-2024

Shipping in the EU emissions trading system: implications for mitigation, costs and modal split, Flodén et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2024.2309167

The effect of transferable tax benefits on consumer intent to purchase an electric vehicle, Stekelberg & Vance, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113936

The impact of occupied buildings, Tregnago, Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-024-01454-5

Urban spatial structure and commuting-related carbon emissions in China: Do monocentric cities emit more?, Zhang et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.113990

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Bayesian Estimation of Advanced Warning Time of Precipitation Emergence, Lickley & Fletcher, Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004079

Community-based early warning systems in a changing climate: an empirical evaluation from coastal central Vietnam, Pham et al., Climate and Development Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2024.2307398

Spatial distribution of wildfire threat in the far north: exposure assessment in boreal communities, Schmidt et al., Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-023-06365-4

What factors drive municipal climate adaptation policy? The role of risk management capacity and transnational municipal networks, dos Santos & Puppim de Oliveira, Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101809

Climate change impacts on human health

Waterborne Virus Transport and Risk Assessment in Lake Geneva Under Climate Change, Li & Kohn, Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003831

Climate change & geopolitics

Beyond AOSIS: small island states’ presence and participation at COP27, Klöck et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2298780

The Russia-Ukraine war decreases food affordability but could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, van Meijl et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01208-x

Other

Attribution of Global Warming Potential impacts in a multifunctional metals industry system using different system expansion and allocation methodologies, Fernandez et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-023-02274-7

Linking the future likelihood of large fires to occur on mountain slopes with fuel connectivity and topography, Conedera et al., Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-023-06395-y

Simulating AMOC tipping driven by internal climate variability with a rare event algorithm, Cini et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-024-00568-7

The meteorology and impacts of the September 2020 western United States extreme weather event, Russell et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100647

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Editorial: Exploring new development patterns for climate change resilience and mitigation, Nuta et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1376012

Philippines must commit to carbon mitigation, Migo-Sumagang et al., Science 10.1126/science.adn5441

The Weather–Climate Schism, Randall & Emanuel, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0124.1

Wilder rangelands as a natural climate opportunity: Linking climate action to biodiversity conservation and social transformation, Simba et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01976-4


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

A Race to the Top, Southeast Asia, Smith et al., Global Energy Monitor

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries have over 28 GW of operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity and a 20% increase in operating capacity since January 2023 and make up 9% of ASEAN countries’ total electrical capacity. Vietnam has the largest share of operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity in the region (19 GW). Thailand and the Philippines follow, each with 3 GW of operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity. The Philippines and Vietnam are emerging leaders globally. With 99 GW and 86 GW respectively for prospective utility-scale solar and wind, they have the 8th and 9th largest prospective capacity worldwide. The ASEAN countries have almost five times more prospective offshore wind power than prospective onshore wind in the region, while prospective offshore capacity in the region (124 GW) is nearly twice that of the current global offshore operating capacity (69 GW). In order for ASEAN countries to meet their goal of 35% installed renewable energy capacity by 2025, 17 GW of additional utility-scale solar and wind capacity needs to become operational among ASEAN members in the next two years, yet only 3% (6 GW) of its 220 GW of prospective utility-scale solar and wind is currently in construction.

Destination Zero, A deep dive into the global state of corporate climate action, Kähkönen et al., South Pole, The Climate Company

The authors report that the overwhelming majority of climate-conscious companies say they have set a net zero target and report that this target is vital to their commercial success. Customer demand is the leading driver of climate action. Among this group, net zero seems to be standard practice and is considered business-critical. Based on these results, one would expect such companies to be proudly communicating their climate action. However, when digging deeper into the findings, the authors see a critical contradiction that has the potential to severely delay our collective efforts on net zero. The survey shows that a majority of surveyed companies are actively decreasing their climate communications. The collected data offers a rare glimpse into this tension, which sits at the heart of corporate climate action today. It reveals that regulation, industry requirements on reporting on climate goals and heightened scrutiny from various stakeholders are the core reasons for companies keeping quiet about their climate goals and progress.

The Great Reallocation. Capital expenditure on energy production, Bond et al., RMI

The authors show that contrary to popular belief, the buildout of renewable energy supply does not require a surge in capital expenditure (capex). As fossil fuel capex falls, the net growth in capex is only 2 percent per year, in line with the past seven years, and much lower than in the decade after 2000. Financing the energy transition is a story of capital reallocation. Over the next seven years, renewable capex will roughly double and fossil fuel capex will roughly halve under core International Energy Agency scenarios. Falling fossil fuel capex will therefore provide half of the growth in renewable capex. This capital reallocation is very achievable. The required growth in energy supply capex of 2 percent is lower than the expected global GDP growth of 3 percent and lower than the annual increase in energy supply capex from 2000–2010 of 9 percent. Given that the capital formation in 2022 was $27 trillion, the additional capex on energy supply would constitute only 1 percent of global capex. Achieving the achievable still requires work. The key now is to ensure that capex moves from generation to grids, and from developed markets to emerging markets. The primary impediments to change are policy and expertise rather than the volume or availability of capital.

DRAFT: State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance: 2024 Science and Policy Update, California Sea Level Rise Science Task Force, California Ocean Protection Council, California Ocean Science Trust

Failure to adequately prepare now will have significant cost implications in the future and consequences to public health and safety, wildlife and habitats, private property, and infrastructure necessary to maintain daily living in California. It will also have impacts on communities burdened by social and environmental injustice who are already disproportionately impacted by climate change, industrialization, and pollution. To build resilience for coastal communities and ecosystems, thoughtful science-based planning and adaptation actions need to happen now. This updated State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance provides the best available science and policy recommendations from which to make these decisions. California’s enduring connection to the coast demands that we acknowledge the threats on the horizon and innovate to adapt to the changes ahead.

Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK. State of the evidence 2023, Gillingham et al., UK Health Security Agency

To secure health there is a need to understand both the impacts of climate change on health but also, importantly, effective interventions to protect health. The authors bring together up-to-date evidence to inform policies and actions to secure health. The authors provide an authoritative summary of the scientific evidence on the health effects of climate change, potential implications for public health, and gaps in evidence. The report is primarily a scientific and technical document that collates up-to-date knowledge to inform policy and action in the United Kingdom. The report also acts as a resource for public health and other professional bodies and groups, government departments and authorities, science-facing civil society organizations, and interested stakeholders and partners with a role in securing health from the effects of climate change.

SubjectToClimate Climate Education Essentials Courses, SubjectToClimate

This is a series of free, online courses developed by SubjectToClimate to help teachers teach about climate change. Level 0 is about climate change basics. It includes five modules, including the history of climate science, climate science basics, and climate solutions. Level 0 takes approximately 4 hours to complete. Level 1 is about teaching climate change. It includes nine modules, including reasons for teaching about climate change, how to incorporate climate change into the curriculum, and ways to address misinformation. Level 1 takes approximately 6 hours to complete. Level 2 guides teachers in developing K-12 inquiry-based climate lesson plans for all subjects. It includes ten modules, including how to effectively choose resources, how to align the lesson plan to standards, and how to create accompanying materials. Level 2 takes approximately 4 hours to complete.

How Economics Can Tackle the ‘Wicked Problem’ of Climate Change, Stiglitz et al., School of International and Public Affairs/Institute of Global Politics, Columbia University

Addressing the harmful effects of climate change requires an understanding of economic tradeoffs, the politics of policymaking, and the strategy of diplomacy. While early prescriptions for climate solutions focused on idealistic “optimal” policies and all-encompassing global treaties, a more nuanced and realistic vision for climate progress has emerged. As befits a “wicked problem,” a wide range of policies and insights from across scientific disciplines are needed to promote collective action, reduce emissions, and help the world achieve a more sustainable future.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

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  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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Previous edition

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Comments

Comments 1 to 3:

  1. Thank you for another informative and enlightening curated set of research reports.

    I particularly recommend: How Economics Can Tackle the ‘Wicked Problem’ of Climate Change, Stiglitz et al., School of International and Public Affairs/Institute of Global Politics, Columbia University (from this week's government/NGO section)

    The entire document is a relatively brief presentation. I am a fairly slow reader. And it only took me 40 minutes to read all of the document.

    The following extracted points may encourage people to read the full document.

    Introduction ends with:

    This report describes how the tools of economics, when combined with insights from other disciplines, can help policymakers address tradeoffs, implement climate policies that are both equitable and cost-effective, and help the world achieve a more sustainable future.
    The Conclusion ends with:

    We cannot “optimize” climate actions with any useful precision by balancing the benefits and costs of action — understanding risk and uncertainty and the concomitant urgency of addressing climate change are central to climate policy. Carbon prices work best when combined with other policies to support the development of infrastructure, institutions, regulations, and alternative technologies. In addition, international treaties are most effective when they combine sticks and carrots to encourage deeper cuts in emissions over time while maintaining broad — if not universal — participation. As befits a “wicked” problem, we need to continue to learn from the past and adapt our strategies for reducing emissions as we go.

    What I found particularly informative was in the section headed WHAT SHOULD BE THE GOAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY? The following quote is from the middle of the section:

    A surprising source of fodder for the climate action naysayers has come from a group of economists who use models that generate so-called “optimal” pathways by attempting to balance the benefits and costs of climate action. While these models can be calibrated to show virtually any result, the versions that have received the most attention show that the “optimal” level of action would be to allow the earth to warm between three to four degrees Celsius by 2100 — a level of warming that most scientists say is truly frightening.4 Recent updates to the model suggest an optimal warming of 2.7 degrees in 2100.5

    This level of warming is still high. Researchers at Columbia and elsewhere have investigated these models, called Integrated Assessment Models (or IAMs) because they integrate environmental effects with economics, something that all good models do. The assumptions ingrained in these models about the environment, the economy, and how they interact are badly flawed.

    The section then elaborates on the flaws including the following selected quotes:

    • ... while climate change is a threat multiplier that will affect societies in countless ways, damage estimates focus on the few effects of climate change that are easiest to capture. Many or most categories of climate damage — migration, conflict, ocean acidification, biodiversity loss, etc.— are not included in state-of-the-art models.
    • ...the models usually ignore distributional concerns, which are highly relevant to policy responses because climate change has the greatest impact on the poor, who have the fewest resources to protect themselves.
    • Future generations will also be disproportionately harmed by climate change, and they are typically undervalued in IAMs as well. Indeed, a critical assumption in the IAMs is how future benefits are “discounted.” A dollar today is worth more than a dollar 100 years from now, but how much more? And how do we value the reduced risk of a climate catastrophe confronting our grand-children? Most climate damage estimates implicitly undervalue future generations by discounting future benefits using market rates of return, which are determined largely by the preferences of individuals today over consumption at different points during their lifetimes — thus failing to grapple with the ethical issues raised by taking on risks that will be borne by future generations.
    • More reasonably, and more ethically, we should value our children and grandchildren as much as we value ourselves. Consider a situation where climate change’s effects turn out to be particularly severe, which is a realistic possibility that most IAMs ignore. Incomes of future generations will be reduced as a result — but they will have to spend a lot to repair the damage and to adapt to the new climate, at precisely those times when they are least able to do so.
    • In addition to undervaluing the benefits of action, the IAMs do not provide useful estimates of the costs of climate action, in part due to the extreme difficulty of forecasting technological innovation over centuries. The models also assume that markets are perfectly efficient, or that they would be efficient if only we could get the price of carbon right — the only distortion is caused by green-house gas pollution. But, as we discuss further in the next section, research over the past 50 years has highlighted the multiple inefficiencies in market economies that serve as barriers to emissions reductions — imperfections of competition, of information, of absent markets, and ill-informed or less-than-rational individuals.
    • To be sure, the most recent studies have produced enormous improvements over earlier versions of IAMs. For example, an analysis by Danny Bressler of Columbia University shows a seven-fold in-crease in climate damages from incorporating an estimate of human mortality caused by temperature increases.9 The latest estimates from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency now includes damages from temperature-related mortality.10 However, even the state-of-the-art estimates of climate damages are plagued by the same limitations noted earlier.
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  2. Thank you OPOF.

    In rough connection with that, see:

    How Not to Worry About Expense: Modern Monetary Theory and Climate Spending

    There is a lot of conventional wisdom (and motivated reasoning) glued onto our understanding of economics, particularly when in collision with governmental finance. Some supposed degrees of freedom are inoperative in reality, dead-end hypotheses that arguably live on in part because they're amenable to exploitation by narrow interests. On the other hand, we have degrees of freedom lying fallow because they contradict traditional, deeply accepted but often wrong thinking— and challenge self-interest. As in the case of MMT, where plain facts contradict what we're habituated to believe without question. 

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  3. Doug Bostrom,

    Thanks for the link to the informative presentation of 'matters of fact' related to governmental economic financial considerations.

    The write-up and BBC Reel video are nice concise explanations of matters of fact that contradict some developed popular (and profitable for some) beliefs.

    I am encountering increased instances of being less able to learn and educate (open-minded pursuit of increased awareness and better understanding) by rationally discussing important matters with people.

    Some political opportunists pursue benefiting from misleading people into believing things that are contradicted by 'objective matters of fact'. The result is more people becoming 'deliberately learning-resistant'. They lock themselves into carefully selected and made-up 'facts and conspiracy theories that support their preferred beliefs regarding matters that matter - 'motivated resistance to reasoning' being popularized and profited from by harmfully misleading political game players.

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