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Comments matching the search SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup:

CO2 limits will harm the economy

One Planet Only Forever at 10:05 AM on 2 April, 2023

retiredguy @112,

As Bob Loblaw has pointed out, serious pursuers of better understanding may not have bothered to do 'yet another' detailed debunking of Lomborg's nonsense. I read some of his earlier books and was able to easily identify many misleading claims he made. He has a history of changing his claims, but not his motivation to be misleading regarding the climate impact problem and its solutions.

Based on the title of the 2020 Lomborg item, I am almost certain that this version of his misleading story-telling efforts can be effectively corrected by reading helpful detailed documents like the UNDP's Human Development Reports. I particularly recommend the 2020 HDR which includes a robust evaluation that dispels the myth that GDP is a meaningful measure of advancement.

Other documents that help people learn how to dismiss the claims of people like Lomborg include:

The series of documents in the SkS "New reports spell out climate urgency, shortfalls, needed actions"

The Story of the Week in the 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5: "Social change more important than physical tipping points" and the "Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023" it summarizes.

CO2 effect is saturated

One Planet Only Forever at 03:51 AM on 27 March, 2023

Gootmud’s comment @680 and the responses have been informative and educational. Thank you Rob, Eclectic, MA Roger, and Bob. However, based on today’s reality, I think this Rebuttal should be updated.

The potential magnitude of global warming due to a doubling of CO2, and the related denial tactic of claiming the CO2 effect is ‘saturated’ or not a significant concern, is now only an academic matter. It was an important matter for leaders to be aware of 30 years ago when it was vigorously argued against by ‘people with interests that were contrary to this improving understanding’. But since warming beyond 1.0 C has already occurred, and warming beyond 1.5 C is already likely due to a lack of responsible leadership action to limit the harm done, it is no longer a relevant leadership considerations.

Note: Disappointing people who have developed undeserved perceptions of opportunity, prosperity, advancement or superiority based on harmful unsustainable activity and related beliefs ‘is not harmful’. Governing to limit harm done is essential to the advancement of civilization.

The Story of the Week “1.5 and 2°C: A Journey Through the Temperature Target That Haunts the World” in the “2022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50” makes it clear that decades ago the following was understandable:

warming above 1.0 C risks significant harm (that is now proven by today’s reality).

warming beyond 2.0 C is very risky (hopefully that will never be proven in a near future reality).

That understanding fits with the 1.5 C ‘long term maximum harmful impact objective’ paired with the need to limit the ‘temporary peak harmful impact level’ to significantly less than 2.0 C.

The IPCC FAQ Chapter 1 provides additional information regarding the targets. An important bit of information is that 1.0 C warming was reached in 2017. When the formal global leadership agreement was established in 2015 human impacts were almost certain to exceed 1.0 C. And the significant costs of the failure to limit the peak human impacts to 1.0 C are also now harder to deny.

The reality today is: No matter what someone wants to believe regarding the sensitivity of global average surface temperature to increasing CO2 the actual evidence makes that debate irrelevant. What is now undeniable by leadership is the need for the unprofitable safe removal of carbon from the atmosphere to bring the harmful impact level back down below 1.5C. And it is also undeniable that the people who benefited most from the harm done need to do the most to limit how much worse the problem is at the peak, pay to remove the excess carbon, and help everyone harmed by the impacts of what they benefited from.

Leaders no longer need to be guided by the science of the potential rate of warming due to a doubling of CO2 levels. That type of pursuit of understanding is also ‘hopefully’ very unlikely to be relevant to the future of humanity. Responsible leadership would prevent that magnitude of harm done from ever becoming a reality.

The Problem with Percentages

One Planet Only Forever at 07:41 AM on 21 February, 2023

Evan,

I think it would help to insert points along the line of your earlier post about the importance of watching the Keeling Curve for evidence that efforts to reduce climate impacts are being successful.

Examples of the type of items to include would be trends of:

Fossil fuel consumption (burning of coal, oil, nat. gas)

CCS on fossil fuel use (the short-term helpful reduction of Carbon emissions)

CCS from the atmosphere (the CCS that needs to be developed)

And the future of the trends should only be speculated about based on evidence of effective helpful transitions of social drivers as presented in the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook: The plausibility of a 1.5°C limit to global warming - social drivers and physical processes (Story of the Week in the 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5).

And the severity of the challenge can be highlighted by examples like the massive new coal plants in South Africa that are planned to be operated until the 2070s.

Blooberg report: Giant New Power Plants Undermine South Africa’s Emissions Pledge

Who will pay to compensate the investors and South Africans for their lost opportunity to profit and benefit from these facilities for 50 years?

That is an absurd question. The people who made a bad bet should lose their bet. But all the people making Bad harmful bets know that the history of humanity is loaded with examples of wealthy people, and powerful large groups of people, being well compensated when they lose an opportunity to benefit from being harmful to Others (because they won't stop being harmful until they feel they are adequately compensated for not being allowed to continue believing and doing what they developed a liking for).

The Problem with Percentages

One Planet Only Forever at 10:12 AM on 20 February, 2023

Evan,

I agree with your reluctance to be 'too positive' about the transition away from fossil fuels.

I have seen many reports indicating successful resistance to approvals of new electricity transmission infrastructure and new renewable generation facilities. The Story of the Week and first two comments 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7 indicate that significant efforts to impede the development of renewable need to be overcome. That will require a significant systemic transition that dramatically reduces the success of efforts to delay the required rapid transition.

The Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023 that is Story of the Week in 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5
robustly evaluated the current state of affairs and considers it very unlikely that the USA (and many other developed nations) will meet their current Paris Agreement NDCs. And those NDCs that are unlikely to be met are weaker than what is required to limit impacts to 2.0 C.

The Hamburg Outlook appears to be a more justified perspective than perceptions based on speculation about the continuation of past rates of renewable development. It can be easy to produce a significant rate of increase when starting with a small amount. It is harder to continue that rate of increase, especially when efforts to resist the renewable developments are also increasing.

One final point ... tragically there is very little discussion and leadership promotion of the benefits of limiting 'unnecessary energy consumption'. Admittedly there are many people who need increased energy consumption to live basic decent lives. But they are not the problem. Their per-capita energy demand will be small. The problem is the high energy consumers who believe that 'More consumption is necessary for them to enjoy their life' and everyone who aspires to develop to be Great over-consumers like them.

If unnecessary energy consumption was significantly and rapidly reduced the curtailing of fossil fuel use would be more rapid sooner.

Skeptical Science News: The Rebuttal Update Project

One Planet Only Forever at 04:46 AM on 20 February, 2023

John Mason @8,

To be clear, I am not suggesting an end to human efforts to combat misinformation. And I am sure that constant human monitoring would be required to ensure that an AI ChatBot was as effective as possible. And human monitoring and input would also be required to identify and counteract 'novel developed attempts to impede the effectiveness of the helpful AI ChatBot'.

Thinking a little more about it, it is likely that harmful pursuers of advantage in obtaining personal benefits to the detriment of Others are already working on developing AI ChatBots for their interests.

As is often noted, there is an endless possibility for developing 'harmfully appealing misleading claims'. And the efforts to limit the harm are always too little too late.

Trying to correct harmful misunderstandigs is fighting an uphill battle. There is a profusion of harmful misleading unjustified positive impressions and unjustified anxieties and fears (negatives) that impede learning to be less harmful and more helpful to Others. The Story of the week in 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7 and the first 2 comments are evidence of a globally coordinated effort to oppose the interests of the future of humanity. And the Story of the Week in 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5 provides a detailed evaluation of the success of such efforts impeding the achievement of the Paris Agreement objective, making that achievement 'not plausible' (Limiting impacts to 1.5 C not plausible even with significant systemic transformation starting today. And limiting impacts to 2.0 C requiring significant systemic transformations starting today).

A significant systemic transformation could be one powerful ChatBot developed collaboratively by the UN (UNICEF, UNDP, UNEP, ...). That could help the 'effort to educated people' on the many matters of concern regarding the future of humanity, not just the climate impact challenge. But I would suspect very few current day powerful governments would support the effective development of something like that. They almost all have their power because of a lack of eductation of the population that gives them the power they have.

2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7

One Planet Only Forever at 13:12 PM on 19 February, 2023

I just read this NPR report about how pursuers of benefit from fossil fuel use appear to be coordinating misleading 'local' campaigns against renewable energy developments.

An activist group is spreading misinformation to stop solar projects in rural America

The following is a quote from the article about the group coordinating opposition to Solar developments:

"Analysts who follow the industry say Citizens for Responsible Solar stokes opposition to solar projects by spreading misinformation online about health and environmental risks. The group's website says solar requires too much land for "unreliable energy," ignoring data showing power grids can run dependably on lots of renewables. And it claims large solar projects in rural areas wreck the land and contribute to climate change, despite evidence to the contrary."

The success of this type of 'claimed to be grass-roots' campaign is a reason that the "Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023" (Story of the Week in 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #5) indicates there is a very low likelihood that the US will meet its current Paris Agreement NDCs (NDCs that need to be ratcheted up if global impacts are to be kept below 2.0 C).

Skeptical Science News: The Rebuttal Update Project

John Hartz at 05:05 AM on 16 February, 2023

John, Baerbel, Ken & Doug:

I have been sifting and winowing through the internet for more than a decade now to identify quality news articles about manmade climate change and related matters.* During this time, I have seen a signifigant growth in debunking articles generated by journalists, scientists, blog authors, and others.

One such article was posted just two days ago. It is:

Myth-buster: Why two degrees of global warming is worse than it sounds by Daisy Simmons, Climate Explained, Yale Climate Connections, Feb 13, 2023

In the context of the rebuttal update initiative described in the OP, I thought it would be interesting to see which of the Skeptical Science (SkS) rebuttals Simmons' article best pairs up with. It appears that would be the SkS rebuttal, #3 It's not bad.

Having said the above, the existing SkS rebuttal, #3 It's not bad covers almost the complete universe of climate science. Therefore, the best Advanced version of the rebuttal would in essence be the most recent scientific report of the IPCC.

My basic recommendation re this ball of wax is to slice and dice the the SkS rebuttal, #3 It's not bad into distinct chunks.

___________________

*The first SkS "Bi-Weekly News Roundup" was posted on Nov 16, 2012.

2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #2

One Planet Only Forever at 15:35 PM on 25 January, 2023

I have been an interested follower of this discussion. I am optimistic about humanity in the long term, but pessimistic about the short term.

My current understanding is that when the Keeling Curve levels off, when human activity is no longer causing CO2 levels to increase, there should not be a significant further increase of the global average surface temperature.

However, I also understand that increasing temperatures will activate feedback mechanisms that will increase CO2 levels. Therefore, before the Keeling Curve is levelled off, any activated feedback mechanisms will require more reduction of human impacts than would have been required before the feedbacks were triggered. In other words, more warming makes it harder for humans to reduce human impacts enough to ‘level-off the Keeling Curve’ (get to net-zero).

Also, the science (from decades ago) indicates that warming above 1.0 C risks significant harm (now proven). And warming beyond 2.0 C is considered to be very risky (hopefully never proven). That understanding is the basis for the 1.5 C objective that is paired with the need to limit the peak impact level to less than 2.0 C. (Refer to the Story of the Week “1.5 and 2°C: A Journey Through the Temperature Target That Haunts the World” in the “2022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50”)

Developed governing economic ideology is justifiably questioned. The short term competitive pursuit of status interests over-powering the reduction of harm is detrimental to the global future of humanity. Also, the perceived need for constant growth of activity that is perceived to be profitable develops harmful results.

The removal of excess CO2, levels above 1.5 C impacts, is now almost certain to be required. CO2 impacts exceeding 1.5 C are ‘in the pipeline’ because it will take time to correct the current harmfully over-developed activity that is the result of a lack of actions to limit impacts through the past 30 years. And the marketplace will not naturally develop CO2 removal to bring peak human impacts back down to 1.5 C levels because that will never be a profitable activity. External governing will be required to make it happen.

External governing of economic activity will also be required to limit the amount that impacts exceed 1.5 C before they are drawn back down. A key understanding is that the area under the global average temperature curve needs to be minimized to limit the future challenges. The more that 1.5 C level of impacts is exceeded the more harm is done. The longer the 1.5 C level is exceeded the more harm is done. But the required changes of the developed governing socioeconomic-political systems are contrary to ‘popular developed socioeconomic ideology and the developed status-quo’.

So, in my comment @2 I expressed optimism about the long term future of humanity. However, I am also pessimistic about how harmful the impacts of the ‘over-developed harmful marketplace system fuelled by marketing that is focused on promoting positive impressions’ will be before that system is corrected (I made a similar point in my comment @4 on the SkS item “Can induction stoves convince home cooks to give up gas?”). That pessimism will be reduced when a significant amount of ‘unprofitable’ CO2 removal facilities are operating. The sooner those ‘correction of harm done’ facilities are operating the sooner there is justification for optimism that there will be a sustained improving future for humanity.

Many of the supposedly highest status people today are obliged to pay for carbon removal facilities to be built and operated in the current day. That activity cannot ethically be pushed off to be a ‘future, development that will continue to face reluctance to be implemented because it is not profitable’. And it is important for those ‘unpopular and unprofitable’ facilities to be almost certain to be harmless. Less expensive and ‘more harmful in other ways’ ways of appearing to reduce the harm of CO2 need to be understood to be unacceptable. It is important to see evidence of leadership pursuing the limiting of harm done, not claiming to be reducing harm done by actions that are harmful in other ways. All harmful impacts need to be limited to sustainable Planetary Boundary levels of impact, not just CO2.

Therefore, I am hopeful and optimistic about the long term future of humanity. But I am skeptical/pessimistic regarding how soon there will be evidence to support that optimism. I am justifiably concerned about how much harm will be done that future generations have to overcome in order to develop sustainable improvements. Sustainable improvements can be achieved almost Forever within the Boundaries of this One Amazing Planet if that is a governing objective, which it really should be.

Don’t get fooled: Electric vehicles really are better for the climate

One Planet Only Forever at 07:21 AM on 6 January, 2023

Doug Cannon @20,

Please explain your belief better than "They propose the same theory of lying to ourselves about using the mix of fuels to generate electricity as do many other reports. It just doesn't work that way."

I live in Alberta, Canada. Several years ago I was looking into buying an EV. Tesla was the only EV with a decent range. I was thinking about being less harmful, not saving money. But I did not buy the Tesla. At the time, the Alberta electricity generation included a lot of coal generation. And the government intentions indicated coal might be burned until 2040. And the burning of natural gas was going to be the major replacement for coal. I did my homework and determined that the most efficient hybrid available at the time would produce far less harmful emissions than an EV powered by Alberta electricity.

Things are different today. My hybrid still produces less emissions than an EV powered by Alberta electricity (which is similar to the worst US locations). However, the last coal burning in Alberta is expected to be ended by the end of 2023 (but that will be converting the last coal burners to burning natural gas - meaning less harmful but still very harmful).

The future, however, looks much better. The plan is for new electricity generation in Alberta to primarily be wind or solar. If the developments go as planned, by 2030 my very efficient hybrid will be more harmful than an EV powered from the Alberta grid.

You may be lacking imagination regarding the future of electricity generation.

Some relevant questions:

Were you aware that the use of fossil fuels is causing harmful climate change impacts?

If you were aware of that, how are you justifying more harm being done by the promotion of prolonged fossil fuel use?

Do you understand the need to end fossil fuel use to stop making things worse for the future generations? (refer to Overshooting climate targets could significantly increase risk for tipping cascades which is the Story of the Week in the 2022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52)

We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.

One Planet Only Forever at 12:29 PM on 31 December, 2022

Reviewing all of the comments helped me develop the following response to peppers @86. I hope it is helpful.

The following questions hopefully establish a common understanding regarding the harm done by the proliferation of misunderstandings on a public-service system like Twitter.

Note: The harmful results of efforts to delay or diminish the awakening of understanding of harm being done, including the attempts to over-power or threaten people who try to help others learn to be less harmful, is not restricted to climate science.

Important questions for everyone:

1. Do you understand how Bayes’ theorem explains the way (perhaps the only way) that humans ‘minimize conflict of interests by developing and improving common sense understanding’? Ideological indoctrination will make people resist following Bayes’ theorem and fail to develop common sense understanding. Problematic beliefs include:

cheaper and easier (or more profitable, or more desired) justifies/excuses harm done

richer and more powerful people are excused for being more harmful because they can afford to, and are able to, be more harmful

harm done (to Others) can be excused if benefits are obtained (by the In Group).

Ideological beliefs can reduce conflicts within a group (or nation or group of nations). But the resulting group will increase their conflict with Others. Limiting the harm of global conflict requires everyone, or at least all leaders, to apply Bayes’ theorem in pursuit of improved awareness and understanding of what is harmful and how to be less harmful and more helpful to Others (that is the origin of important learning and presentations of understanding like the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the IPCC, and the Sustainable Development Goals).

2. Do you accept that all of the Climate Myths presented under the Arguments tab are misunderstandings that everyone can learn to better understand? If not, revisit the Arguments after understanding the next question.

3. Do you accept that it is harmful to believe and propagate misunderstandings that would delay learning about the importance of rapidly ending fossil fuel use? Wouldn’t it be easier for everyone to learn to be less harmful and more helpful if there was less repetition of harmful misunderstandings, less temptation to excuse harmful actions? Wouldn’t it be better if there was a public gallery of misunderstandings with comprehensive, open to improvement, explanations everyone could learn from (like the SkS Arguments list)? Wouldn’t it be great if every posting that included a repetition of a misunderstanding directed viewers to the appropriate, already established, educational rebuttal?

4. Do you accept that a high level Ethical/Moral Rule is “Be less harmful (when possible)”? I admit that being harmless is not possible. To live you have to harm other life. But sustainable living is possible. It requires distinguishing ‘Needs essential to living’ from ‘All other desires’. The harm done by meeting essential needs can only be limited to ‘pursuing the least harmful ways to ensure those essential needs are met – By/For Everyone’. Desires, however, are not necessary. Desires should be screened/governed/limited so that the only desires acted on would be sustainable (without accumulating harm) if everybody did the desired action to the same degree (relates to the problem of developing people being tempted to want to live like the harmfully over-developed who are perceived to be superior).

That brings us to the population question raised by peppers. More people on the planet does result in more restrictions on ‘desired actions’. It also makes the provision of everyone’s essential needs more harmful. An understood solution is pursuing, and improving on, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Learning about the SDGs leads to understanding that pursuit of the goals would reduce the harmfulness of the developed and developing populations. And a recent research report in the Lancet “Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study” indicates that achieving the SDGs would also be expected to reduce the peak global population, primarily due to the birth-rate reductions expected to occur in societies with ‘more educated and freer women’.

Also, the more harmful the climate change impacts are the harder it is to achieve the SDGs. Exceeding 1.0 C of impact has been identified as entering the realm of significant risk of harm. Refer to my comment regarding the Story of the Week “1.5 and 2°C: A Journey Through the Temperature Target That Haunts the World” in the “2022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50”

With the above established, responses to specific statements made by Peppers @86 are as follows:

Responding to the population question point that “The causation is fossil fuels, the proliferation of them. But if it is the explosion of bodies from 1 to 8B, exactly matching the rise of Co2, is ID'd as the cause, then our solution would be re-thought as well.”

nigelj’s response @88 is great. But there is more.

The problem is admitted to be fossil fuels. But there is no admission of the need to ‘end the harm of fossil fuel use’. Not mentioning the harmful unsustainability of the ways of living developed by the ‘supposedly more superior people that Others aspire to be like’ indicates a lack of understanding of the basics of the issue (refer to the questions above).

Also, saying “An important part of my 8 billion comment goes past the division of consumption calcs, which I understood too...”, indicates more may be going on than a lack of understanding. Claiming that the comment regarding population “looks past” the fact that a small portion of the population has massive harmful impact is questionable. It is looking through, or looking around, or looking away from the understanding that more harmful people have to make more, and more rapid, corrections of how they live and that developing people should be helped to develop more sustainable lives with the least harmful transition through the fossil fuel use phase of development (waiting for technological developments that will be cheaper and more popular to end the harm done will fail without increased awareness and effective governing to limit misunderstanding and related harm done. Technological solutions, like nuclear, could be unsustainable and harmful like the problem they were believed to solve).

The problem is made worse by people perceiving the more harmful people to be superior. That misunderstanding could cause people to want to develop to be ‘part of that group and live like they do’. Developing a sustainable solution requires all of the ‘perceived to be superior people (not just the ones who care to learn to be less harmful and more helpful to Others)’ leading the rapid transition/correction past (away from) fossil fuel use.

Responding to the “One Planet, If you can decide your are so correct in defining that more input is deemed impossible to add anything, then you could move forward with the censoring and re-education plan. The world has seen that before however, and they are still reflecting, what were we thinking?”

Common sense understanding of the pursuit of improved awareness and understanding of what is harmful and how to be less harmful and more helpful to Others is not ‘my decision or definition’. It is common sense ethics/morality.

Claiming that limiting the influence of the proliferation of misunderstanding is ‘censorship’ is a misunderstanding.
Using the term re-education rather than saying ‘learning to be less harmful and more helpful to Others’ is a misrepresentation because re-education has negative connotations that do not apply to learning to be less harmful and more helpful.

What the world ‘has seen before’ is the result of harmful misunderstandings becoming popular and powerful. That results in ideological indoctrination of populations (with nationalism and other selfish interests). And that causes the resulting population to powerfully and harmfully conflict with Others. They collectively resist learning to be less harmful and more helpful to Others. People should reflect on ‘Seeing what happened’ (continues to happen) within many political groups in many nations. Many groups become increasingly resistant to learning about ‘the harmful results’ of fossil fuel use. People should also reflect on and how other harmful beliefs are embraced by those groups as they ‘wrap themselves in flags’ and pursue the ability to have more influence to be more harmful.

2022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #46

One Planet Only Forever at 09:52 AM on 5 December, 2022

wilddouglascounty @4,

I agree that a diversity of actions are required to increase the number of people who change their mind to abandon harmful Beliefs by improving their Knowledge regarding how to be less harmful and more helpful. And that includes recognizing that not all people in a 'category of people' are harmfully selfish even if the majority in that category are.

I think that the best thing would be for people to use their connections and methods of connecting with others to be more helpful including:

raise awareness and improve understanding about the harm of fossil fuels and the harmful actions of people trying to maximize their benefit from fossil fuels as harmfully as they can get away with.

correct harmful misunderstandings or misleading claims when they encounter them (don't be a by-stander)

Unlike 'more on-line interactive' people like Eddie Evans who have the potential to reach a broader audience, I am not a Social Media participant. My interactions are more direct encounters with people in my many diverse groups of acquaintances. I do not bring up topics like climate change. But whenever a misunderstanding is raised I try to improve the understanding ... with mixed results. I live in Alberta. So I interact with many people who are powerfully motivated to misunderstand a topic like the harmful climate change impacts of fossil fuel use.

I have made a more expansive comment about this regarding the added challenge of the 'recent changes by Twitter' on the 2022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #48. The recent SkS post "Publishing a long overdue explainer about a scientific consensus" is also related to the problem.

Supreme Court sharply limits EPA power plant authority

One Planet Only Forever at 02:43 AM on 12 July, 2022

Indeed, the conservative biased judges (some selected for appointment due to the efforts of people like Charles Koch - see "2022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #27") do seem to have come to conclusions that do not bode well for the future of development of improvements that limit harm done in the USA (especially limiting damaging results of actions in the USA on Others, especially all the Others in the future impacted by un-limited ghg emissions).

If this type of thinking had been applied decades ago, imagine all the important regulation of pursuits of profit, like Building Codes, having to have their details created and updated by Congress ...

Skeptical Science tackles 'discourses of climate delay' and 'solutions denial'

One Planet Only Forever at 06:27 AM on 7 July, 2022

Here is my rough draft of a presentation hoping to inoculate people against being misled regarding energy and material consumption. It is regarding ‘discourses of climate (action) delay’ that argue against the need to reduce energy consumption (a follow-up to my comment @12).

First, read my comment @1 on the 2022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26 and read and view the items that it refers to.

When you see or hear the term ‘energy poverty’ be on alert that the messenger is likely trying to mislead you. Using that term is one of many ways that propagandists for extended and increased fossil fuel use, and increased harm done to the future of global humanity, try to trick people into excusing, or desiring to be, less helpful and more harmful humans.

Minimizing the damage done by human activity should be an accepted global objective. Regarding climate change the objective is undeniably to minimize the accumulated peak ghg levels and most rapidly reduce them.

Reducing hedonistic gluttonous over-consumption is an obvious way to achieve the objective of limiting the damage done. That helpful correction does not require new technology to be developed. And it reduces the cost of providing the less harmful technological replacements for the harmfully over-developed systems. It also reduces other unsustainable impacts of over-consumption.

There will likely be some degree of unsustainable impact of any human activity. With this planet potentially being habitable for 100s of millions of years it is important for humans to learn to live in ways that most sustainably fit into the robust diversity of life (constantly pursuing the fittest ways to live is required for humanity to survive). New technological developments may be helpful. But they are likely to be unsustainable developments in spite of their potential popularity and profitability (warning: popular and profitable developments can be very hard to correct).

A major problem that is seldom stated in articles regarding climate change is the over-developed unsustainable consumption of energy and other resources. The problem of over-consumption is especially, but not exclusively, applicable to fossil fuel use. It is important to keep in mind that ending the harm of fossil fuel use is not sustainable if the result continues to be unsustainable over-consumption.

It is undeniable that levels of consumption, especially among the portion of the global population perceived to be ‘higher-status, more advanced’, have developed far beyond what is required to live a decent basic life. Many people have developed powerful desires for hedonistic gluttonous consumption that far exceeds what they ‘need’. And less fortunate people can be tempted to believe that developing towards the ways that those ‘perceived to be superior people’ live is the direction to develop in pursuit of living a better life.

Misleading political marketers abuse the term ‘energy poverty’. They use it to accuse promoters of sustainable development and the associated corrections of what has developed regarding global climate impacts, which includes cutting back on harmful over-consumption, of driving people into ‘energy poverty’. And they abuse the term to try to glorify continued pursuits of benefit from harmful unsustainable activities. Sure, people living less than decent basic lives may need some increased energy consumption. But they should be helped to develop the lowest impact energy consumption required for decent basic living, otherwise the perceptions of improvement will not last.

From that awareness and perspective, the likes of Exxon claiming to be helping improve the lives of people who are “living in energy poverty” is very misleading – definitely a ‘discourse of climate delay’. It masks the reality that those who benefit most from operations like Exxon’s are benefiting from the development of harmful hedonistic energy gluttons who appear to be ‘more advanced – higher status’ people.

Here is the quote from the article containing that claim regarding “living in energy poverty”.

“Woods plays the blame game, which is so common, with every entity these days with respect to climate change. In this game, everyone stands around pointing fingers, blaming some other entity for climate change, absolving themselves as only responding to market forces, and claiming that action can only happen once some other entity takes action first.

Exxon, in this case, was only responding to “consumer demand” and still responds to consumer demand, selling oil because there are buyers for it. Woods foresees continuing to meet that demand and considers Exxon the savior for people around the world who are “living in energy poverty.” But a large majority of currently proven oil reserves must stay in the ground if we want to avoid catastrophe, and that catastrophe will disproportionately affect those people living in poverty. He also blames government for not crafting consistent and efficient regulation, after Exxon has lobbied against action for decades.”

Clearly, the expressed concerns have little to do with helping sustainably improve the lives of people who are living less than decent basic lives. In fact, it could be argued that the propagandist likes of Exxon want more people to ‘enjoy living’ more harmful, less decent, lives of hedonistic gluttonous excess.

Gas-powered cars: Beginning of the end in California?

One Planet Only Forever at 02:43 AM on 25 November, 2020

GM has just reversed its previous opposition to the California initiative.

"GM Stops Backing Trump Administration in Emissions Fight With California" - WSJ

One of the nastiest things humans develop is sub-groups pursuing power through Fascist Politics, like the Republican Party do. The power of fascist politics to harm Others was probably a major factor in the original GM decision. Not only could GM investors benefit from not having to rapidly change its production, GM could avoid the harmful wrath of the powerful likes of Trump.

"How Fascism Works" by Jason Stanley, is a comprehensive presentation of the political influence mechanisms that can be employed by harmful pursuers of Power. And many of the mechanisms can be seen to be employed by people opposed to Climate Science and the related understanding of the need to rapidly end the global use of fossil fuels, especially the opposition to the expectation that the largest beneficiaries from fossil fuel use lead the rapid transition from fossil fuel use and help the less fortunate deal with harm that has already been done and help them improve their lives with the least possible use of fossil fuels as a temporary transition to sustainable improved living.

As stated in the "2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #47" - Editor's Choice article there has been an extensive and diverse history of 'market failures' that 'improvements of the system' would help limit. The catch is that the problem is more than the economic system. A major part of the problem is the social-political environment that the economic system operates in. Changing the Social-political environment is what is required.

The harm done by competition for status in a materialism consumerism focused market driven by popularity and profit is a result of the developed sociopolitical systems. The type of sociopolitical system matters the most when it comes to getting helpful results out of the economic system.

Keeping harmful results from being produced by the economic system requires Governing to limit what is allowed to compete. The evidence appears to indicate that 'harmful unsustainable activity' has a competitive advantage if it can be gotten away with (it is easier and cheaper than the alternatives). And getting away with harm requires the harm to be hidden, or be ignored, or be dismissed, or have people pointing it out be discredited ... all to develop and maintain perceptions of, or opportunity for, higher status relative to Others. And higher status relative to Others can be harmfully pursued by "Fascist politics".

People fighting for Climate Action are fighting to reduce the harm done by pursuers of Personal Benefit who do not care if they are harmful to Others. The proponents of the need to rapidly end the use of fossil fuels need to also help rapidly end the success of harmful pursuits of power and status by groups that want Superiority over Others, especially when those groups use fascist politics - groups using fascist politics will claim 'to be the victim' of limits to harm done.

Harm Done never justifies Personal Benefits Obtained no matter what non-sense the harmful pursuers of Impressions of Superiority claim. The development of evidence-based constantly improving Common Sense understanding to end harm being done and improve helpful actions is the way to develop a lasting improving future for humanity. Try to keep that 'Top of Mind' is the massive deluge of non-sense messing-up pursuits of understanding what is going on.

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019

One Planet Only Forever at 13:17 PM on 5 December, 2019

I have just noticed that the item I linked to above is the basis for the "Climate Tipping Points Are Closer Than We Think, Scientists Warn" article that is included in "2019 SKS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #48".

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #34

One Planet Only Forever at 14:24 PM on 29 August, 2019

Comments 3 through 6 on "2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #34" directly relate to this Story of the Week.

One thing to add to the many concerns that are presented in these two posts and their related comments (or present more directly) is the reduction of biodiversity due to human impacts reducing Rainforest extents.

Researchers in Rainforsts are constantly discovering lifeforms that have never before been documented. That makes it likely that, unlike the likes of DoDos and Passenger Pigeons, there are almost certain to be losses of unkown biodiversity. And that could mean losses of lifeforms with potential for human benefit. Those opportunities for human benefit will never be known to have been lost forever. And that loss will have happened because a portion of current day humanity had developed powerful desires for "other interests and priorities" and allowed those interests and desires to compromise the environment and biodiversity to the detriment of the future of humanity.

As the full Story of the Week concludes: "The fires in the Amazon remind us this is not just a crime against nature but a crime against humanity."

2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #41

One Planet Only Forever at 06:12 AM on 15 October, 2018

In my earlier comment I stated that the Alberta UCP policies regarding climate science would be worse than the current Notley Government.

That is supported by the information in this CBC article "'The worst tax ever': Doug Ford and Jason Kenney hold campaign-style rally against carbon levy", that I had shared in a recent comment I made to the "2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #39".

I indicated in my comment that current day Conservatives (hoping to win by Uniting greedier and less tolerant people and claiming to be Right) should not be expected to respond positively to a Price on Carbon. They will likely respond by making the potentially very popular claim that such an action is an Evil Tax, especially in a region like Alberta.

The Alberta NDP leadership of Premier Notley implemented a Carbon Levy and Rebate program. The Conservative response has been to declare that if they win power in Alberta in the next election they will cancel the evil carbon tax (and cancel the rebates that resulted in the middle and lower income people getting a net-benefit from the program).

The Trump administration has entered Stage 5 climate denial

One Planet Only Forever at 09:45 AM on 12 October, 2018

Based on lots of reading, particularly “the Enigma of Reason” by Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber that I am currently reading, I have learned that all opinions likely start as Intuitive thoughts. Sometimes reasoning is applied to figure out why the Intuitive preference is what it is (science and other learning do this). When it is a matter of personal entertainment, nobody potentially being harmed as a result, the reason for an Intuitive preference does not matter. However, when there is a potential for harm then altruistic reasoned justification is essential (I learned and applied that to become a constantly improving professional engineer).

Altruism is a very good term to use when discussing the responses to climate science of people, particularly leaders who should be leading by example. Unlike terms such as 'Ethical, Moral, Good, Helpful, Reasoned, or Freedom', it is very hard to make altruism mean whatever someone wants it to mean. Altruism is 'Self-sacrifice for the benefit of others'. It is the opposite of Egoism.

All 5 stages of climate science denial are indeed attempts to delay the corrections of what has developed that are required for humanity to develop a sustainable better future.

Those delaying tactics, and other unacceptable actions by clearly unjustified leaders and winners, have a common basis. It is Anti-Altruism in response to the improving awareness and understanding that Altruism is required to govern all human activities in order for humanity to have a future (altruism can be understood to be basis for all of the Sustainable Development Goals).

My working hypothesis/theory regarding altruism/ethics related to the SDGs, particularly applicable to the climate action goal (more than enough supporting evidence that it is not just a hypothesis), is that for humanity and civilization to have a future it is becoming increasingly apparent that Altruism has to be governing and limiting all human activity. And political groups have been evolving in response to improving awareness and understanding of the unacceptability of unsustainable and harmful socioeconomic developments. Some have become more altruistic. Others have not.

Those choosing to be less altruistic, or resisting becoming more altruistic, do not like being challenged to altruistically justify what they want to believe and do. They were regionally winning support around the world because of the appearances of economic improvement and advancement that were being developed. That success has sputtered as the unsustainability, unfairness and unacceptability of the economic developments of 'people freer to believe what they want and do as they please without being governed by altruism' became harder to hide, deny or excuse.

Anti-altruism can be understood to be the root cause of almost all conflict. Altruism vs. Altruism is a debate, discussion, or an argument with a reasoned resolution, not a conflict. Anti-altruistic political parties want people focused on polarizing and divisive personal-trigger desires that prevent them from being more altruistic. They also need people to be less aware of the Altruism vs. Anti-Altruism conflict. The anti-altruists identify or create other conflicts, including making-up them up, for people to focus on rather than becoming more aware of the more important fundamental conflict of Altruism vs Anti-Altruism.

In the Feb 29, 1960 issue of Time magazine Ayn Rand stated that “If any civilization is to survive, it is the morality of altruism that men have to reject.” and “Capitalism and Altruism are incompatible ... capitalism and altruism cannot coexist in man or in the same society.”

Ayn Rand's observations were correct, but she came to the wrong conclusion. Since every human can understand that it is better for the future of humanity if they behave altruistically, the correct conclusion is that capitalism discourages the development of altruism and encourages the development of anti-altruism if it can be gotten away with.

Any competition for impressions of superiority relative to others encourages the development of anti-altruism (egoism). It is seen all the time. And rules and enforcement to limit behaviour need to be developed whenever competition driven anti-altruism creates the potential for harmful results.

More potential for personal benefit creates more temptation to be anti-altruistic, because the less altruistic have a competitive advantage (advantage increasing the less altruistic they can get away with being). This is especially true in mass-advertised capitalism and politics.

Altruism is not an accounting balancing evaluation. It sets a minimum standard of acceptability of “Do No Harm”. And it establishes the open-ended inspirational objective of helping others. There is no limit to how much you can help. It is anti-altruistic to compare the perceived harm done to future generations with some perceived cost or lost opportunity to current generations. Harm to future generations is altruistically unacceptable, no mater how beneficial it may be for the current generation to cause that future harm or how costly it is to avoid producing future harmful consequences.

Pointing out the unacceptability of greedier and less tolerant people Uniting and claiming to be Right produces some interesting responses. The claims include:

claiming that 'explaining the unacceptability of greed and that it needs to be corrected' is an act of greed by someone who is jealous or wants to steal wealth or is intolerant of those who are greedier.
claiming that 'explaining the unacceptability of intolerant attitudes and actions and that they need to be corrected' is being intolerant of the less tolerant.
many other poor excuses that sound good but are not rationally justifiable.

All that the greedy and intolerant have are poor excuses for wanting to behave less altruistically. They can understand that they want to do things that harm others. But, they allow what they want to over-power their ability to be altruistic. Because they understand they cannot get what they want if they are limited by altruism.

The Future of Humanity is in Question - Altruism is the Answer

Altruism! What is it Good For? - The Future of Humanity

I have been working on improving my understanding of what is going on for a while. And I have always struggled to come up with punchy banner statements for what I am understanding, partly because I was not really clear about what I was learning. But now I can offer the above for everyone to use and improve (I am not interested in reward or recognition for developing this understanding. Similar understanding has been developed in all of recorded human history. I altruistically hope that sharing in this way helps increase altruism in the general population)

People simply being freer to believe whatever they want and do as they please without altruistic self-governing or external altruistic governing is developing a potentially endless stream of unsustainable harmful activity. Less regulation of human activity is the type of environment that the anti-altruists prefer. It is the type of environment they can thrive in (to the detriment of others, especially to the detriment of future generations).

If Altruism and its restrictions of acceptable behaviour is not the Overall Governing Objective and Measure of Acceptability, then harm to others, like climate challenges unjustifiably created by current day pursuits of perceptions of prosperity and superiority relative to others, will never be sustainably ended. In fact, those problems will be made as big as can be gotten away with.

Without Altruism responsibly governing and limiting human activity there will be no sustainable future for humanity, only an eternity of harm being created by people anti-altruistically pursuing personal benefit and glory (humans will always be on this planet, but humanity and civilization may not).

(I presented more thoughts about this in my recent comments on “2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #38”)

How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice

John Hartz at 10:05 AM on 11 March, 2018

From the Climate Feedback Reviews section of the 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #9:

Climate Feedback asked its network of scientists to review the opinion piece, Polar bears keep thriving even as global warming alarmists keep pretending they’re dying by Susan Crockford, Financial Post, Feb 27, 2018

Three scientists analyzed the article and estimate its overall scientific credibility to be 'very low'.

A majority of reviewers tagged the article as: Biased, Cherry-picking, Misleading.

Review Summary

This article in the opinion section of Financial Post, written by Susan Crockford, claims that rather than being threatened by declining Arctic sea ice, polar bears are “thriving”.

Three scientists who reviewed the article explained that this article fundamentally misrepresents research on the topic. The author exhibits poor reasoning in arguing that polar bear population loss projected for 2050 should have occurred already if that science was accurate. Researchers do not ignore the evidence Crockford claims they do, but instead incorporate all published research on polar bear populations. Despite the article’s statements to the contrary, research shows that polar bear populations will struggle as ice-free periods (during which they cannot hunt for food) grow longer.

Financial Post publishes misleading opinion that misrepresents science of polar bears’ plight, Climate Feedback, Mar 2, 2018

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