Posted on 12 May 2024 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom, John Hartz

(Unfortunate) Story of the week

"Grief that stops at despair is an ending that I and many others, most notably those on the frontlines, are not prepared to accept." — Dr. Christiana Figueres

Our Story of the Week concerns what can be termed a gut check survey of climate scientists commissioned by The Guardian newspaper, World’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target. With nearly half of all IPCC lead authors and review editors responding, this highly informed body of opinion tabulated unfavorably:

Almost 80% of the respondents, all from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), foresee at least 2.5C of global heating, while almost half anticipate at least 3C (5.4F). Only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5C (2.7F) limit would be met.

In a period where we're barely flirting with 1.5C of warming yet seeing breathaking and disturbingly unusual weather phenomena, biological impacts and disastrous effects on human affairs, this obviously comes as bad news. It's accompanied by the usual litany of other wages of complacency, including record-high increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration.  The week also sees a nasty inventory of indicators of how political processes underpinning production of public policy to check and repair this unfolding disaster are at risk from alliances of narrow self-interests. 

"It's all a little much," to say the least. We can and do productively channel the energy of anger to produce positive results, but despair is hard or impossible to catalyze into useful action. With this week's bundle of results a feeling of hopelessness may be knocking on our psychological doors. How do we refuse this invitation?

How about heeding expert advice from climate scientists?

While it's true that hope is not a plan and optimisim needs to be backed by methods, it's equally true that our species has often survived on nothing more than wishes. People who know climate science and climate change at the deepest levels suggest we dig into our reserves. We must carry on with imagining and pursuing a better future. As an antidote to despair we recommend reading this article by former UN climate convention head Christiana Figueres, who has shown what's possible by her shepherding us to the seeming impossibility of the 2015 Paris Climate Convention. We can also listen to practical advice from a younger perspective offered by British Antarctic Survey scientist Dr. Ella Gilbert, whose thrust essentially boils down to "get informed, and take that information to your political processes." 

As Gilbert says, we are doomed to damage— but every avoidance measure we take adds up. We're on a bus headed for a brick wall, but we do have the power to push harder on the brakes and thereby save rows of passengers. Our understanding of climate and our available suite of technologies are more than adequate to deal with our situation; it's "only" lack of coherent and concerted public policy that is making our harm larger. With powerful forces aligned against improved public policy, even if we're feeling very blue indeed we can and must continue to participate in creating our future. It's helpful to note: this is not wishful thinking but instead proven method, a means of action known to work. Example? While it's by no means a perfect outcome, the Paris Convention is undoubtedly going to produce a marginally better future. 

In terms of results, giving up looks exactly like complacency. Are we complacent? No. Let's not behave as though we are. Being complete citizens of our planet by diving into politics armed with information is our way forward. As messy and sometimes repugnant as political processes are, they're the factory where public policy is made— and only effective public policy is going to save us from ourselves. 

Stories we promoted this week, by publication date:

Before May 5

• Bumblebee nests are overheating to fatal levels, study finds, Environment The Guardian, Sophie Kevany. More frequent heatwaves mean bees are unable to thermoregulate their hives – further endangering a species already in decline
• Guest post: Ice-age analysis suggests worst-case global warming is less likely, Carbon Brief, Vince Cooper & Kyle Amour. "Estimating Earth’s climate sensitivity, the global average warming from doubling CO2 above pre-industrial levels, is an urgent task as it governs how much the world will warm from fossil-fuel emissions. "
• Why India is key to heading off climate catastrophe, Yale Climate Connections, Dana Nuccitelli. For the world to have a chance to meet its climate goals, India must transition away from fossil fuels — quickly.
• Is the Atlantic overturning circulation approaching a turning point?, Youtube, PIK. Recording from the EGU 2024 Alfred Wegener Award medal lecture by Stefan Rahmstorf
• Brazil floods death toll rises to 83, dozens remain missing, World/Americas, CNN, Jack Guy & Julia Vargas Jones.
• Climate change-driven insurance crisis threatens new US states, Climate, Context, David Sherfinski. "The home insurance crisis in the United States is spreading as climate change drives extreme weather. Could your state be next?"
• The Cooling Dilemma Amid Climate Change, Explainer, UNICEF, Staff. "Are air conditioners the solution to heat, or the cause?"

May 5

• 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #18, Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler, Doug Bostrom & John Hartz. List of 26 news and opinion articles we shared last week
• Is Arctic ice rebounding? — How I got CDN to finally issue a correction!, potholer54 on Youtube, Peter Hadfield. Potholer54 - aka Peter Hadfield - points out errors in a misleading video by John Robson
• Academics and Lawmakers Slam an Industry-Funded Report by a Former Energy Secretary Promoting Natural Gas and LNG, Inside Climate News, Phil McKenna. The report, led by former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, came as an investigation by Democrats in Congress exposed efforts by the oil and gas industry to downplay the climate impact of natural gas.
• How the Oil and Gas Industry Smuggles Corporate Propaganda into Schools, Drilled, Molly Taft and Amy Westervelt. STEM lesson plans from Discovery Education provide an efficient model for fossil fuel companies to indoctrinate children

May 6

• Climate change is making hurricanes more destructive, The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler. ...and a lot of climate misinformers don't want you to understand this
• As the Arctic tundra warms, soil microbes likely will ramp up CO2 production, Science News, Katherine Bourzac. Understanding the tiny organisms' behavior could help with climate change predictions
• How do scientists know how much climate change affects a hurricane, a heat wave, a drought, and more?, Yale Climate Connections, Samantha Harrington. The field of attribution science is 20 years old this year, and scientists’ ability to detect the fingerprints of climate change in extreme weather events is growing stronger.

May 7

• KlimaSeniorinnen and the Question(s) of Causation, Climate Law Blog, Vladislava Stoyanova.
• At a glance - Tree ring proxies and the divergence problem, Skeptical Science, John Mason.
• Vermont passes bill to charge fossil fuel companies for damage from climate change, NBC News, Maura Barrett and Lucas Thompson. The legislation — the first of its kind in the U.S. — would require companies with high emissions to help pay for destruction caused by climate-fueled extreme weather.
• Climate Change Is Pushing Animals Closer to Humans, With Potentially Catastrophic Consequences, Inside Climate News, Kiley Price. As temperatures warm, some animals are expanding their geographic range—and overlapping with humans.

May 8

• Wind and solar are `fastest-growing electricity sources in history`, Carbon Brief, Molly Lempriere. Wind and solar are growing faster than any other sources of electricity in history, according to new analysis from thinktank Ember.
• A Vaccine for Climate Misinformation, DeSmog, Stella Levantesi. Facts aren’t enough to combat false and misleading messaging. Experts suggest an additional strategy.
• The Guardian view on the climate emergency: we cannot afford to despair | Editorial, Environment The Guardian, Editorial. Top experts believe global temperatures will rise by at least 2.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. That frightening prediction must spur us to action
• World’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target, Environment, The Guardian, Damian Carrington. "Exclusive: Planet is headed for at least 2.5C of heating with disastrous results for humanity, poll of hundreds of scientists finds"
• `A little bold and gross`: Oil industry writes executive orders for Trump to sign, Politics, Policy, Political News Top Stories, Ben Lefebvre. Oil industry plans our future.

May 9

• The Gulf Coast is home to one of the last healthy coral reefs. It`s surrounded by oil., Grist, Jesse Nichols.
• Record-breaking increase in CO2 levels in world`s atmosphere, The Guardian, Oliver Milman. Experts issue warning after finding global average concentration in March was 4.7ppm higher than same period last year
• What Trump promised oil CEOs as he asked them to steer $1 billion to his campaign, Washington Post, Josh Dawsey and Maxine Joselow. Donald Trump has pledged to scrap President Biden’s policies on electric vehicles and wind energy, as well as other initiatives opposed by the fossil fuel industry.
• Major emitters `may retain or expand` fossil fuels despite net-zero plans, Carbon Brief, Josh Gabbatiss. Countries that pump out large amounts of greenhouse gases could “retain or expand” their fossil fuel industries while treating such emissions as “inevitable” in their net-zero accounting, according to a new study.
• I understand climate scientists' despair - but stubborn optimism may be our only hope | Christiana Figueres, Environment The Guardian, Christiana Figueres. Fighting spirit helped us achieve the Paris accords in 2015 – and we need it now the world is on course to overshoot 1.5C.
• At a Dinner, Trump Assailed Climate Rules and Asked $1 Billion From Big Oil, NYT > Climate and Environment, Lisa Friedman, Coral Davenport, Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman. Fossil fuel executive assess the business case for supporting a US presidential candidate
• Why US offshore wind power is struggling - the good, the bad and the opportunity, The Conversation - Articles (US), Christopher Niezrecki, Director of the Center for Energy Innovation, UMass Lowell. Messy process of offshore wind power is made worse by disinformation promoted by fossil fuel interests
• Occidental Petroleum`s net-zero strategy is a `license to pollute,` critics say, Grist, Joseph Winters. Petroleum firm exemplifies why and how the public is becoming confused about CO2 removal
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #19 2024, Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack. Skeptical Science's weekly compendium of climate research.
• Does mining for batteries erase the climate benefits of EVs? No, and here's why, NPR Topics: Climate, Camila Domonoske.
• Trump to Big Oil Execs: Give Me $1 Billion and I'll Help You Wreck the Planet, Common Dreams, Jake Johnson. "You won't read a more important story today," said one commentator. "Trump is willing to literally destroy the planet for $1 billion."

May 10

• Climate change is breaking us – here’s how to cope, DrGilbz on Youtube, Ella Gilbert. A reaction video by Ella Gilbert about the new survey results which show that climate scientists - like herself - are feeling very pessimistic about the future.