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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

Recent Comments

Comments 5951 to 6000:

MA Rodger at 03:32 AM on 30 March 2021

It's planetary movements

Likeitwarm @3,

You appear to be wanting to convert Semi's assertions into something more than they merit.

Semi says that the Scalar Sum of Angular Momentum (which even Semi brands as as "nonsense") "seems to match the climatologic events" and also "roughly correspond to human civilization thriving" (although I would suggest Semi demonstrates a pretty poor grasp of the chronology of "human civilisation").

From that rather weak relational description you are asserting there is a "correlation" (your assertion because Semi does not go so far). And if you examine the data that you assert is correlated (as shown in Semi's Fig 81 on p50), it is far from convincing. And it gets worst. Note the Moberg et at proxy data only reaches to 1979, since when NH temperatures have risen by +1.3ºC. Semi strangely omits the vertical scaling from his graphics, but a quick look at Moberg et al shows his smoothed 2000-year NH proxy reconstruction has a full range of 0ºC down to -0.7ºC meaning if the last 40 years were plotted onto that Fig 81, the NH temperature trace wouldn't just be off the graph, it would be off the page!!

So I would strongly caution you to ignore all ideas of there being something 'matching' or 'corresponding' shown and certainly not any correlating.

Daniel Bailey at 02:45 AM on 30 March 2021

It's planetary movements

"there is no effect on our climate"

Likeitwarm, while the Sun can influence the Earth’s climate it isn’t responsible for the warming trend we’ve seen over the past few decades. The Sun is a giver of life; it helps keep the planet warm enough for us to survive. We know subtle changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun are responsible for the comings and goings of the ice ages. But the warming we’ve seen over the last few decades is too rapid to be linked to changes in Earth’s orbit, and too large to be caused by solar activity.

One of the “smoking guns” that tells us the Sun is not causing the recent warming of Earth’s surface and ocean comes from looking at the amount of the Sun’s energy that hits the top of the atmosphere. Since 1978, scientists have been tracking this using sensors on satellites and what they tell us is that there has been no upward or downward overall trend in the amount of the Sun’s energy reaching Earth.

A second smoking gun is that if the Sun were responsible for global warming, we would expect to see warming throughout all layers of the atmosphere, from the surface all the way up to the upper atmosphere (stratosphere). But what we actually see is warming at the surface and cooling in the stratosphere. This is consistent with the warming being caused by a build-up of heat-trapping gases near the surface of the Earth, and not by the Sun getting “hotter.”

Scientists have quantified the warming caused by human activities since preindustrial times and compared that to natural temperature forcings.

Changes in the sun's output falling on the Earth from 1750-2011 are about 0.05 Watts/meter squared.

By comparison, human activities from 1750-2011 warm the Earth by about 2.83 Watts/meter squared (AR5, WG1, Chapter 8, section 8.3.2, p. 676).

What this means is that the warming driven by the GHGs coming from the human burning of fossil fuels since 1750 is over 50 times greater than the slight extra warming coming from the Sun itself over that same time interval.

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/#fig-2-3

The reality is, over the past 6 decades of significant global warming, the net energy forcing the Earth receives from the Sun had been very slightly negative. As in, the Earth should be cooling, not warming, if it was the Sun driving the observed warming of the past 6 decades. Does this mean the Sun is dimming? No. Over the centuries, the Sun’s output waxes and wanes between more active periods of time, like during the 1950s and 1960s, and periods when it is very quiet for decades like in the1600s (called a Grand Solar Minimum). However, the difference between the more active periods and the quieter periods isn’t very great and is not by itself long enough or great enough to propel Earth’s climate into either a runaway heating (like happened on Venus) or into an “snowball Earth”. Overall, the Sun has increased its output by roughly 10% per billion years of its life.

https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-incoming-sunlight

"brightening of the Sun is unlikely to have had a significant influence on global warming since the seventeenth century"

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature05072

What this means, in plain English: the warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is 6 times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum.

Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last for a century, global temperatures would still continue to warm. Because the Sun is not the only factor affecting global temperatures on Earth.

The human forcing is now the dominant forcing of climate, dwarfing all natural forcings combined. Even that from the Sun.

Rob Honeycutt at 01:57 AM on 30 March 2021

It's planetary movements

It's important to note that it's unlikely anyone here will be alive in 2100 to see what transpires after that point. Decisions we make today must be made on what the best available science tells us is likely to happen.

As far as science goes, I wouldn't put much credence on a paper that claims that the modern tech boom is a product of solar cycles.

Likeitwarm at 01:30 AM on 30 March 2021

It's planetary movements

MA Rodger, #2

Even though I think I'm in over my head, to put it in layman's terms ... So, even though there is a correlation between Semi's 934 year cycle and warm and cool periods of our climate, there is no effect on our climate? I guess we'll see if it starts getting colder in 2100, but I won't be here. Thanks for the explanation.

MA Rodger at 21:22 PM on 29 March 2021

CO2 is not the only driver of climate

A reply to Likeitwarm @65 has been posted on the thread indicated as others may be curiiious about the thesis cited @65.

MA Rodger at 21:19 PM on 29 March 2021

It's planetary movements

Likeitwarm @Elsewhere,

You link to comment presented in Semi (2009-unpublished) 'Orbital resonance and Solar cycles' specifically p48 which says:-

The "wave" of approximate period of 934* years, which could also probably be anti-correlated with Sun spin rate, seems to match the climatologic events of Medieval optimum and Global warming, and also the Little Ice age of Maunder minimum, and similar periods in earlier ages (fig. 81)...
If this is right, now the Solar activity could drop a little, but will approach a larger maximum arround year 2050, not disturbed by the peak anomally, and then drop to a next little-ice-age arround 2400 AD. The time-lag between the spin rate change and activity change is still uncertain...

The periods of low scalar angular momentum (and higher Solar activity) roughly correspond to human civilization thriving: 1450BC Egypt, 600BC Greece, India and China, 200AD Rome and China, 1200 Medieval optimum (population growth in Europe), 2000AD (present "technical boom"). The periods of high scalar angular momentum (and lower Solar activity) correspond to crisis periods of human civilization.

According to this connection**, the current warming rate should slow down a little now, but will grow to local maximum arround year 2040, from which point it should drop to next little ice age arround year 2430 and to next warming arround year 2900. [**This referring to the paper's Fig 81 which plots the scalar sum of angular momentum of 9 planets and Sun with the climatologic data from Moberg et al (2005) which presents a 200-year NH hockeystick.]

This is all about a "wave" in the Scalar sum of Angular momentum and the page also presents a NOTE saying:-

NOTE: It was remarked, that Scalar sum of Angular momentum is a nonsense, which it is...

I think I would have to agree with this NOTE. Angular momemtum is considered maintained in a closed system and any heat-related effects that may work beyond a close system (the sun loses 130 trillion tons of mass a year through nuclear fusion) wouldn't make a great deal of difference to that, processes which themselves may show variation but again not significantly even if the sun's position relative to the solar-system's barycrentre were a factor (which Semi [2009-unpublished] asserts is when peak Scalar Sum of Angular Momentum occur).
Further to the NOTE, Semi (2009-unpublished) also does not set out this as an overall finding as it is unmentioned in either the abstract or conclusions.

Of course, that does not stop the swivel-eyed denialists. I note one of the two papers referencing Semi (2009-unpublished), Holmes (2018) 'Thermal Enhancement on Planetary Bodies and the Relevance of the Molar Mass Version of the Ideal Gas Law to the Null Hypothesis of Climate Change ' is cites Semi (2009-unpublished) as apparently showing "Yoshimura is in evidence throughout the climate system, and in proxy records, on all time-scales," (Yoshimura [1978] being cited to support a 55-year barcentric solar-system cycle but with zero actual mention of Earthly climate in that paper).

Likeitwarm at 13:42 PM on 29 March 2021

CO2 is not the only driver of climate

I feel that I am a total neophyte, I have a lot of respect for the understanding of the atmosphere that resides in this forum.
I don't deny the atmosphere has been warming for the past 200 years or so.
In looking around the internet for answers, I recently read about a planetary cycle described by P.A. Semi at http://semi.gurroa.cz/Astro/Orbital_Resonance_and_Solar_Cycles.pdf page 48.
He says this 934 year cycle coincides with the relatively short cycles of climate change, i.e., medieval warm period and medieval cold period(little ice age) and prior.
If this cycle is fact, then the earths climate is warming now from natural processes coming out of the "Little Ice Age" and CO2 may not be the driver of recent warming of .9 deg C of the last 170 years.
I'd love to know what others think of this.

Moderator Response:

[TD] That speculation is incorrect. Please see this post, and put further comments there. Everyone who wants to reply to this comment here, please please instead comment over there instead.

[TD] People wanting to reply to this comment: Also, you might want to wait until somebody checks for sockpuppetry. "LikeItWarm" seems an odd handle for someone who has such a lot of respect, and the details in this comment seem not entirely consistent with "neophyte."

Philippe Chantreau at 05:00 AM on 25 March 2021

Has the greenhouse effect been falsified?

Thank you for the link Bob. I felt very validated to see that, as I understood it already at the time, the stupid G&T canard was little more than a play on words leading to a convoluted strawman argument...

ParadoxIntegration at 15:25 PM on 24 March 2021

Has the greenhouse effect been falsified?

This is my first post on SkepticalScience. I recognize that I'm over a decade late on this thread, and I don't know whether or not there might be a more appropriate place to post this. Yet, in case it's of interest, I want to share that I recently wrote a new critique of Gerlich and Tscheuschner's 2009 paper purporting to falsify the greenhouse effect. While my essay overlaps some of the insights offered by Halpern et. al. (2010), it offers its own perspective, and might be accessible to readers in a different way.

Moderator Response:

[BL]

Welcome to Skeptical Science.

None of our threads here are ever closed. As long as your post is on-topic (as yours is) it is appropriate to add a comment. It is always useful to have more information.

MA Rodger at 23:06 PM on 23 March 2021

UK is now halfway to meeting its ‘net-zero emissions’ target

nigelj @1,

As somebody who has been campaigning in the UK for a quarter of a century to get the government to wake up and take AGW seriously, my take on the achievement of the UK reaching "halfway" is to brand it "delusional." It is akin to bragging about your hill-climbing abilities and how you have scaled hafway up Snowden when all you have actually done is driven to the car park at Pen-Y-Pas (which is about a third the way up). You haven't even got you boots on yet.

The argument I would make is that the reduction of UK emissions from 1990 (here specifically CO2 rather than CO2e which is the value used in the claim) have mainly resulted from exporting the emissions to China. The carbon footprint of UK has been calculated as being half off-shore and to have grown by 45Mt(C)/yr since 1990. Effectively, over a quarter of the UK's 165Mt(C) 1990 CO2 emissions has been exported to China.

The Primary Energy Use has thus peaked (thanks to China), yet (as shown in this Carbonbrief post), the remaining dependence on fossil fuels (as of 2017) remains at 80% with 7% provided by nuclear which will mostly need replacing. And dig deeper into this grand achievement of Primary Energy, of the 14% from renewables, half results from replacing imported coal with imported wood chips.

It will be interesting to see the plans now being developed by today's Tory-led government. They can't dodge this planning any longer although when the cosequences of zero carbon by 2050 is understood, I can imagine there will be an renewed attempt to kick the planning into the long grass again.

nigelj at 15:54 PM on 23 March 2021

UK is now halfway to meeting its ‘net-zero emissions’ target

Imo the UK have made some impressive achievements cutting emissions, but the title of the Carbon Brief article "UK is now halfway to meeting its ‘net-zero emissions’ target" is just woefully misleading and hands deniers ammunition and says shoot us. Gains made by covid 19 don't count because most of them are temporary, so should not be used to claim the UK is half way to achieving its emissions target. The achievements without covid 19 impacts are quite good, and didn't need this sort of embelishment in the title.

It would be interesting to know why more progress hasn't been made with EV's. Perhaps its because the UK don't appear to offer the subsidies for EVs that Scandinavian countries do.

scaddenp at 11:28 AM on 23 March 2021

Ice age predicted in the 70s

I assume that "letter to the President from Brown University scientists" was this one from Kukla and Matthews to President Nixon. The context was questions at the time over how this current interglacial would end. As detailed by this article and the moderator, this was a minority opinion at the time, and of course, later research (Berger, A. and Loutre, M.F., Insolation values for the climate of the last 10 million years, Quat. Sci. Rev., 1991), made the question moot, never mind considerations of anthropogenic change. No one is questioning that some scientists in 1970s were worried about cooling; but it was not even a majority view, let alone a consensus.

Stephen Mettler at 10:14 AM on 23 March 2021

'Freedom from Fossil Fuels' - a climate science framework for non-scientists

Thanks so much Joel! If you have any recommendations on follow-up areas to prioritize as well, it would be great to hear them - my current plan is to pivot now to building some much shorter posts on individual clean technology solution areas (e.g., more detail on carbon capture technologies, a deeper dive into clean fuels, especially focusing on types of hydrogen production, and ongoing debates over nuclear power).

BruceWilliams at 07:20 AM on 23 March 2021

Ice age predicted in the 70s

Apparently the media thaught Global Cooling was the problem. And apparently a lot of teh scientists thaught the same. Could that hae been because the majority of people realize cold kills and warmth gives life? Apparently the scientists at Brown University were not concerned so much about CO2 warmth but were concerned enough about the cold that kills that they sent a letter to the president.

(Was going to include a scan of the letter, but I would need my own URL with name and all and as such I cannot do that.)

Moderator Response:

[DB] Please read both the Basic and Intermediate versions of this post.

A review of the scientific literature from the 1970s shows that the broad climate science community did not predict “global cooling” or an “imminent” ice age. On the contrary, even then, discussions of human-related warming dominated scientific publications on climate and human influences.

https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/scientists-didnt-announce-impending-environmental-catastrophes-every-decade-since-the-1970s/

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-5#heading-3-2

The large majority of climate research in the 1970s predicted the Earth would warm as a consequence of CO2.

Rather than 1970s scientists predicting cooling, the opposite is the case.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1

This venue uses the scientific method; thus, when you make claims here you need to support them with an appropriate level of citations to the credible scientific literature. Thus:

Available evidence shows that it is the human adaptation to weather extremes that is key in limiting mortality:

"Adaptation measures have prevented a significant increase in heat-related mortality and considerably enhanced a significant decrease in cold-related mortality. The analysis also suggests that in the absence of any adaptive processes, the human influence on climate would have been the main contributor to both increases in heat-related mortality and decreases in cold-related mortality."

and

"With regard to heat-related mortality, projected future increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves may exert a stress beyond the adaptive limits of the population."

Causes for the recent changes in cold- and heat-related mortality in England and Wales
Nikolaos Christidis, Gavin C. Donaldson, Peter A. Stott; Climatic Change, October 2010

Mitchell et al 2016 - Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change

"In summer 2003, anthropogenic climate change increased the risk of heat-related mortality in Central Paris by ~70% and by ~20% in London, which experienced lower extreme heat"

Further:

"contrary to the propositions of those who like to stress the potential benefits of global warming, a net reduction in mortality is the exception rather than the rule, when comparing estimates around the world"

And

"the world would witness a dramatic increase in heat-related mortality rates in the most populous and often poorest parts of the globe"

Eclectic at 05:47 AM on 22 March 2021

There's no empirical evidence

Magonz, you should be more rigorous in your approach . . . a scientifically rigorous bottom-up approach :-

What is the primary source of evidence of the scientific claim addressing Gravity? Where is the paper that has it all? Where is the raw data, unadjusted by falling apples?

What is the primary source of evidence of the scientific claim addressing electromagnetic Radiation? Why hasn't it come to light, or at least to infra-red? We really do need a Red-Blue Team assessment of this.

What is the primary source of evidence of the scientific claim of the atomic structure of Matter? Or is Matter simply a natural variation? Was the landmark scientific paper by Democritus suppressed or canceled for political purposes? Has the existence of atoms been addressed . . . and what are those quarks really up to? (Are they on a politically-motivated Charm Offensive?)

Magonz, these fundamental questions must first be addressed, before you move on to secondary (or tertiary?) issues like Climate. The true skeptic follows Feynman's motto :- First Things First.

Moderator Response:

[DB] The person to whom you are replying is a sock puppet and will not be participating here further.

Rob Honeycutt at 05:05 AM on 22 March 2021

There's no empirical evidence

Magonz... Are the same person as Gzzzm2013 who was commenting above?

Moderator Response:

[DB] Yes

Jonas at 09:11 AM on 21 March 2021

2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #11

FYI: I clicked on "The Rise and Fall of the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” and noted that the link is bad (skepticalscience prefixed).

After correcting the link manually, I was shocked to see that realclimate is offline (or hacked or whatever), but my correction was bad: they are on http only, not https. Phew ..

Moderator Response:

[BL] Thanks for noting that. We'll get it fixed. In the mean time, the correct link is here:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2021/03/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation/

[BW] Fixed the link. Thanks for the heads-up, Jonas!

magonz at 02:35 AM on 21 March 2021

There's no empirical evidence

I am looking for the primary source (not secondary or tertiary) for the evidence of anthropogenic-caused climate change. Just looking for the data and its analysis, as in a peer reviewed scientific paper...looking for the raw data and its mathematical analysis. Please post link here to the raw data. Measurements. Variable definition. Statistical analysis. Peer review. The paper that has it all, as in any PHD level scientific research. Thanks for the help. Please post link to such evidence here.

Moderator Response:

[BL] This sort of "impossible expectations" challenge seems to come up frequently.

Regular viewers: please hold off on responding to this challenge until we have had a chance to see if this new magonz account is another reincarnation of any previously-banned users, which would be a clear violation of our Comments Policy.

A reminder to all, the Comments Policy includes the following:

No multiple identities. Posting comments at Skeptical Science should use only one registered screen name. Use of more than one account will result in all accounts being banned.

MA Rodger at 19:47 PM on 19 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

SunBurst0 @50,

Rather that having "cleared away any notions that [SunBurst] was simply making stuff up" you rather confirm it by your comment @50. The effort you appear to have taken in composing the comment may suggest it was not done "simply," but the result is pure make-believe. (Note that the notion of what you describe as a "temperature forcing" sounds a lot like a climate feedback.)

Moderator Response:

[TD] Sunburst again has been banned for yet another sock puppetry.

[DB] As will all subsequent and future sock puppet iterations of the same account.

Takahara Misako at 08:45 AM on 19 March 2021

2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory

Perhaps this web page can help?

https://bartonlevenson.com/SecondLaw.html

Moderator Response:

[PS] You are replying to comment at is over 2 years old - but good link. Please use the Link tool in the comments editor to make links yourself.

Takahara Misako at 08:30 AM on 19 March 2021

What does China’s 14th ‘five year plan’ mean for climate change?

Sorry for the sock puppet account. I can't access my old account because I tried to create a Wordpress blog and it screwed up everything I have, everywhere on the internet that uses Wordpress.

I'll be commenting under this name from now on.

Joel_Huberman at 04:38 AM on 19 March 2021

'Freedom from Fossil Fuels' - a climate science framework for non-scientists

I can now add that I've gone over the PDF version of your slide deck with a fine-tooth comb, looking for any errors of science or policy (based on my experience as a scientifically-trained but auto-didact climate scientist and as an activist with Citizens' Climate Lobby). Not only did I not find any errors, but I discovered new information of which I was previously unaware! Hearty congratulations and thanks to you!!

Dawei at 13:59 PM on 18 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11, 2021

The paper "Observed changes in rainfall amount and extreme events in southeastern Ethiopia, 1955-2015" seems miscategorized as Agronomy. It would seem it should have been placed under Observations of climate change

Bob Loblaw at 00:38 AM on 18 March 2021

CO2 measurements are suspect

Note that Toms comment I link to in #98 is further up this page (#53)...

Bob Loblaw at 00:34 AM on 18 March 2021

CO2 measurements are suspect

Beck's work seems to come up a lot. There are several other (reliable) places you can read about it on the web:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/beck-to-the-future/

http://rabett.blogspot.com/2006/10/amateur-night.html

http://rabett.blogspot.com/2008/03/beckies-as-tonstant-weader-knows-eli.html

...and an old comment here at SkS by Tom Curtis:

https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php?a=55&p=2#75463

Also note that Beck's paper was published in Energy and Environment. Not the highest quality journal.

https://www.desmogblog.com/energy-and-environment

MA Rodger at 22:17 PM on 17 March 2021

CO2 measurements are suspect

orrok @96,

The work of W Kreutz you cite does not appear to have been published in English but the work features prominently within Beck (2007) '180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Gass Analysis By Chemical Methods' which did attrach comment from Meijer (2007) & Keeling (2007) [PDF of both] who conclude saying "His work, however, contains major flaws, such that the conclusions are wrong, as they are based on poor understanding of the atmosphere," and "Unfortunately for Beck—as well as for humanity—the claims don’t stand up."

HK at 20:56 PM on 17 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

It does make sense to claim that the Earth as a whole usually is very close to thermal equilibrium if that refers to its energy imbalance with space on a century to millennium time scale or more. If that number wasn't very close to zero most of the time, the Earth would almost constantly experience huge changes of its average temperature, ice cover, sea level and so on.
An energy imbalance of, say, +0.1 watts/m² sounds very small compared to the ~240 watts/m² flowing in and out of the climate system, but what if that imbalance was maintained over a period of 10,000 years?
If so, the Earth would accumulate a total of 1.6 x 10²⁵ Joules of energy. That amount of energy could:

1. Heat all the water in the oceans by 3°C on average, or the upper 350-400 metres by 30°C
2. Melt all the Earth's roughly 28 million gigatonnes of ice 1.5 times
3. Heat the entire atmosphere by 3000°C (yes, three thousand degrees C)
(3 is of course highly "unphysical", but it illustrates the huge amount of heat involved)

This suggests that the Earth's average energy imbalance from the last glacial maximum to the early Holocene optimum was of the order 0.1-0.2 watts/m² and that it through most of the Earth's history must have been much less than that.

And the present imbalance?
If the heat increase of the oceans' upper 2000 metres during the last decade is used as an indicator, the current imbalance is about +0.7 watts/m², probably about +0.8 watts/m² if other parts of the climate system are included.
So, yes, it definitely makes sense to assume that the Earth usually is very close to thermal equilibrium on a century to millennium time scale or more.

orrok at 20:54 PM on 17 March 2021

CO2 measurements are suspect

I'm interested in CO2 levels during the 1866-present period. Mainly because
1) we have direct observational CO2 measurements from 1866 onwards
2) The period 1866 -present is particulary interesting in terms of human development,the industrial revolution and co2.

Would it be possible to include a graph for this period with direct measurements, rather than proxy ice core data?

Of particular note is W. Kreutz, with 25,000 measurements in the period 1930-39 with a mean concentration of 438ppm.
W. Kreutz,“ Kohlensaure Gehalt der unteren Luftschichten in Abhangigkeit von Witterungsfaktoren,” Angewandte Botanik, vol. 2, 1941, pp. 89-117

Philippe Chantreau at 07:10 AM on 17 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

John,

We coud add that said Hurricane was a monster 1800km in diameter at its largest, that made it all the way to 40 degrees latitude. Of course, you can blame NY flooding on the storm surge, but there the sea level and storm surge combo is what takes the cake. Deniers will deny.

Philippe Chantreau at 03:27 AM on 17 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #10, 2021

And then, having the appropriate number of cattle grazing on such prairie could produce decent meat and displace industrial cattle production that generates excess CO2.

Interestingly, that would take us back to a familiar, older model of farming, which was in fact farming, not industrial production of agricultural goods. Such farming has been killed by industrialization, taking with it quality and a myriad of incidental benefits that were never taken into consideration when the hyper-industrial model became dominant.

That later model is designed for the benefit of commodity traders and other actors for whom profit at any cost is a way of life. Farmers (real ones, not agri-business conglomerates) and consumers are not the big winners in that transformation.

baeb at 03:12 AM on 17 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #10, 2021

Around here feed corn farmers make about $150 per acre for delivering what is probably over 40,000 ears of corn for animal feed. If someone just paid the farmer $160 a year to plant a perennial prairie or forest, they copuld eliminate their risk and effort, stop using nitrogen fertilizer, and quit irrigating certainly by year three. Done on a mass scale, it would cut emissions from fertilizer production and feed lots while sequestering over time a lot of carbon and as well as Professor Jahne has pointed out alter the transpiration water cycle and cooling effect in a major way.

michael sweet at 03:01 AM on 17 March 2021

Most important steps to build out a completely renewable energy system

David,

How to store excess energy from windy days to use on windless nights is the key issue of using renewables. I am surprised that you could not find where Jacobson et al and Williams et all address long term storage. Most of both papers is dedicated to addressing this issue.

In general, there are a lot of ways to address this issue. For example, current hydro power is used to supply primarily peak power in the middle of the day. If usage of the dams was altered, hydro power could provide a lot of the backup power needed on most nights instead (solar production is pretty constant. Windless nights are the harder problem.). Batteries can be used for storage of solar power for use at night or wind energy at night for use the next day. Long term storage (from summer to winter) is generally too expensive for batteries.

Storage of gasses and liquids is much cheaper than storage of electricity. Then the gasses (or liquids) can be used to generate electricity when it is needed. According to the EIA, currently existing underground storage of natural gas is about 6,000 billion cubic feet in the USA alone. source Usage (same source) is about 70 billion cubic feet on peak days. This is about 90 days of complete supply. Either electromethane or hydrogen can be stored in existing storage. On windy days in summer you make hydrogen (or electromethane) and store it. On windless winter nights you use the gas to generate electricity in currently existing gas turbines. Fuel cells using hydrogen are more energy efficient if they are developed in the next 10 years (this technology exists. The question is the cost of scale up to the entire country). This would easily supply the examples you give. Even if electrical usage was much greater there would still be enough storage.

Your wild claim that electromethane is not a viable option is completely unsupported. The three peer reviewed papers I cite show that storage is economically available to power 100% of the economy using current technology. If fuel cells are developed than hydrogen might be cheaper.

If you have trash to energy plants they can stockpile material to use to supply peak power. A lot of energy can be saved by customers who reduce use to get cheaper electricity. Many high users of electricity currently reduce use on peak usage days. My brother programs his electric car to charge only when there is excess power since the electricity is cheaper.

Williams et al and Jacobson et al describe their systems running for 4 years without problems supplying total energy to the economy.

In addition, scientists have found that the larger the grid the less incidence of windless nights occurs.

Germany will never generate 100% of all energy all the time, it is too small. They will be in a European grid that helps back them up. Norway has tremendous hydro that could imaginally back up all Europe.

You have to look at the big picture. Deniers in the past have used examples as small as a single wind turbine to argue against renewables. Scientists have shown that large grids (the bigger the better) generating All Energy for the economy are the cheapest way to go. Texas will have to connect to the grid.

Eclectic at 23:56 PM on 16 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

JohnSeers @46, the gentleman in question does indeed keep returning, like Halley's Comet ~ but at intervals closer to 7.5 months rather than 75 years. Though unlike Halley's Comet, he gains a new name at every cycle.

And it's always the same nonsense arguments, and the same imperviousness to rational thinking. Idee fixe is the French term, I believe. Perhaps you can advise on the translation of two short planks.

Al Gore did come out with the statement: "If Greenland broke up and melted, or if half of Greenland and half of West Antarctica ..." <unquote> but the reference was to the substantial inundation of Florida. And he specified no time scale. Presumably somewhere he made similar reference to the flooding of New York. In addition, Al Gore is definitely not a scientist, and cannot be specified as an authentic spokesman for modern climate science & its "predictions". (Not that the denialists care about such distinctions.)

JohnSeers at 20:47 PM on 16 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

Looks like SunBurst has been outed as a sockpuppet. Quelle surprise.

Someone else has pointed out his example of an Al Gore prediction (of New York flooding) does not hold up. I would just add that I notice he fails to provide a reference to the actual prediction and the actual words Al Gore used, which is an all too common problem in his echo chamber. All the better to misrepresent what was said.

I will add one point in refutation. Al Gore made this unreferenced prediction in 2006 according to SunBurst. New York was badly flooded in 2012. That seems pretty convincing to me.

I am aware that the science doubters argue until they are blue in the face that this does not count "'Cos it was caused by a hurricane.". Just a sign of their desperation to cling to their failing zombie tropes.

MA Rodger at 19:51 PM on 16 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

All this denialist nonsense that keeps emerging about Clausius-Claperyon remains a curious phenomenon. Clausius-Claperyon simply says the dew point water content for constant pressure (pressure is significantly fixed within the atmosphere) is linearly dependent on temperature. The only shred of reason i can see for this denialist nonsense about something being 'uniform' would thus concern, not an assumption of 'iniform' global temperature, but either an assumption of atmospheric relative humidity remaining unchanged with temperature or an assumption of a 'uniform' average global temperature change, both of which are not assumed but modelled within GCMs and both of which (as Lacis et al use of GCMs demonstrates) are reasonably valid assumptions for an approximate assessment.

If there were a denialist out there with just half a brain, they may be able to explain it all properly. In the meantime I can but assume all this denialist Clausius-Claperyon nonsense is the result of swivel-eyed denialists thinking they have found something cunningly complex and thus an irrefutable argument, oblivious to the matter actually being remarkably straightforward.

Moderator Response:

[PS] Pretty much all CC nonsense comes just one denialist that creates a lot a sock-puppets. He is convinced of his superiority (and his license to ignore comments policy). Just not worth the time as ignores any contrary evidence or interprets it as supporting his nonsense.

David-acct at 11:09 AM on 16 March 2021

Most important steps to build out a completely renewable energy system

www.eia.gov/beta/electricity/gridmonitor/expanded-view/electric_overview/US48/US48/GenerationByEnergySource-4/edit

Michael - the above link shows the electric generation from wind dropped from the normal 45-70gw per hour down to 8gw - 20GW per hour across the entire US during the same period that ERCOT dropped wlectric generation from wind.( 2/8/2021 through 2/19/2021,) Germany which has one of the highest penetrations of wind generated electricy suffers from multiple days with low electric production from Wind. See the attached link which shows approx 7 days where germany's electric generation dropped from the 50-70gw per hour to less than 30gw per hour for 5-7+ days (my apologies, agora-energiewende site's charts are a little hard to read/adjust the dates)

www.agora-energiewende.de/en/service/recent-electricity-data/chart/power_generation/12.02.2021/15.03.2021/

The willaims study also includes the conversion of home heating to electric ( or at least new homes and replacement as furnaces wear out)

based on current techology and the anticipated technology, neither battery or electomethane appear to be viable options when there are 3-4+ days where electric generation drops like we experienced in the US for the 7-8+ days from February 8- feb 19th. Likewise the same issue in Germany for the 4+5 dys they experienced in Februay.

I could not find in the Williams study (or jacobson's prior studies) how they overcome those issues. If you can point to how they anticipate handling those Issues, I would appreciate the help

michael sweet at 06:09 AM on 16 March 2021

Most important steps to build out a completely renewable energy system

David,

Williams et al 2021, the paper reviwed in the OP, primarily uses electromethane for use when there is little wind and solar. This could be stored in existing storage areas for natural gas and used in existing gas generators.

In addition, all the plans I have seen have a national or whole continent grid. Small grids like ERCOT are prone to failure when connection to a national grid would not fail. For example, during the recent shortage in Texas there might have been wind in the northern part of the country that could be delivered to Texas. The OP finds that renewable energy (primarily wind and solar) with storage is economically competitive with fossil fuels.

Recently I have seen some articles at CarbonBrief.org that suggest industry is leaning toward using hydrogen for storage. One key conclusion in the Williams et al 2021 is that we do not need to make that decision today. In any case we should build out wind and solar as rapidly as possible and switch everything over to electricity. Natural gas can provide adequate storage. In 10 years it will be clearer whether hydrogen or electromethane is a better choice for storage.

SunBurst at 05:31 AM on 16 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

MA Rodger @40

An "earth in perfect thermal equilibrium" surely has to be energy flows to the poles which surely means temperature gradients.

Wrong! An object or sample in thermal equilibrium has no temperature gradients. If it did, heat would be flowing from the regions of higher temperatures to those of lower temperature, which would not be thermal equilibrium. In the Clausius-Claperyon equation, the temperature of the sample is characterized by a single value, not a bunch of values. Check it out for yourself by doing a search on "Clausius-Clapeyron equation derivation". I believe you will find that the first statement made is that the sample consists of a substance in which two phases of that substance are in thermal equilibrium with each other. So, if we apply the CC equation to a single temperature earth, we are automatically assuming that this earth is in thermal equilibrium with itself everywhere, period.

So don't ask me anymore for credible evidence of my claim that the CO2 "control knob" theory is false. You have a mountain of it already. Every temperature dataset you have that shows a non-uniform temperature over the surface of the earth is further evidence.

Moderator Response:

[PS] Apologies for delay, but comment will released after an investigation for sock-puppetry is complete.

[DB] Sock puppet confirmed.

Rob Honeycutt at 01:46 AM on 16 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

What's fascinating to watch is how SunBurst has presented erroneous statements, been corrected with evidence and citations, and ignored it. It's clear he just flat out doesn't care when he gets something wrong.

@4, 6, 12 he said (without citation) warming isn't global, and shown he's wrong multiple times and in multiple ways.

@14 he claims (without citation) we're taking energy away from people who need it, and shown how this is wrong.

@18 he claims (without citation) that Al Gore said NYC would be under water in 10 years, and he was repeatedly shown this is wrong.

@20 he questions how we could know that human CO2 emissions are causing warming, and is shown the research and evidence, and ignores it.

@27 he asserts that "AGW folks" claim (without citation) that CO2 levels are "unprecedented," is shown the research and ignores the error of his assertion.

@35 he makes the false assertion (without citation) that Lacis 2010 claims the earth must be in perfect equilibrium, and will surely be back to defend his false statement.

If this isn't Gish Gallop then I don't know what is.

Rob Honeycutt at 01:16 AM on 16 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

SunBurst @38... Being the word "equibrium" doesn't occur in the Lacis paper, perhaps you could better describe what you're trying to claim. To my understanding no one states a requirement the "assumption of an earth in perfect thermal equilibrium." In fact, all warming and cooling is going to be a function of a radiative imbalance.

Philippe Chantreau at 00:44 AM on 16 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

Now Sunburst has gone full delirium mode. Another rant that falls in the "not even wrong" category.

Considering how confident Sunburst is that everyone has it fundamentally wrong, he is bound to produce something monumental in the science litterature soon. I'll keep an "open mind" and will read whatever that will be once it has been peer-reviewed and published. Until then, I won't waste my time. I recommend DNFTT.

MA Rodger at 22:26 PM on 15 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

SunBurst @35,
So let me get straight what you are saying.
I require an "open mind" to be able to "recognise the possibility" of a big big boo-boo in climatology. Okay. I can run with that all day long.
And "the most far reaching" boo-boo (so you suggest there is more than one) is an assumed "earth in perfect thermal equilibrium" which you define as one with "a uniform temerature over "the entire surface." Now I struggle with this. An "earth in perfect thermal equilibrium" surely has to be energy flows to the poles which surely means temperature gradients. And the same with this "relative humidity would be 100% everywhere." Why would that be? But, hey, this is your 'possibility recognition' class, not mine. So I'll let it ride for the while.

Then you ask me to "recall" that the "primary" assumption of AGW is Clausius-Claperyon which you say requires this "uniform temperature" over "the entire earth" for it to be valid. Now that will require some further explanation from you. Clausius-Claperyon simply shows a linear relationship between temperature and specific humidity at a constant pressure at the dew-point. I see no "uniform temperature" over "the entire earth" or even an "entire condensed state/vapor state sample" (whtever that is supposed to be).

And @38 you protest that "It is exactly how it is stated in Lacis et. al. (2010)." Of course, it would be proper to quote what Lacis et al actually say rather than just say they say it is "exactly how." So what do Lacis et al say? They mention Clausius-Claperyon just the once saying:-

"If the global atmospheric temperatures were to fall to as low as TS =TE [ie the surface cools from 288K to 255k], the Clausius-Clapeyron relation would imply that the sustainable amount of atmospheric water vapor would become less than 10% of the current atmospheric value."

But this use of Clausius-Clapeyron is not the substance of the Lacis et al findings. That is derived from a full-blown climate model. This quote is simply explaining the finding in more simplistic terms.

So this in no way supports your contention that "It is exactly how it is stated in Lacis et. al. 2010."

SunBurst, I am always open to ideas but you do seem to have failed to present anything valid @35 or @38. Maybe you have forgotten to explain some vital link in your argument? Or maybe you are a simple fool repeating the nonsense echoing round the denialosphere? I would suggest it is more likely the latter as you give no indication of the former. But don't feel so bad about it. You are not the first fool to gush out this same cretious nonsense here at SkS.

David-acct at 21:24 PM on 15 March 2021

Most important steps to build out a completely renewable energy system

www.eia.gov/beta/electricity/gridmonitor/expanded-view/electric_overview/US48/US48/GenerationByEnergySource-4/edit

Everyone knows how the Texas lost signigicant electric power generation on the early morning of Monday 2/15/2021 due to the failure of gas plant electric generation. Going from 45GW per hour down to 28 gw per hour over a period of 6 hours.

In Texas/Ercot, wind produces on average of 15GW per hour to 25GW per hour. Of note, electricity generated from wind dropped down below 5GW per hour from 2.9.2021 though 2.18.2021 often producing less than 2GW per hour with only a few times during those 9 days producing in the range of 8GW per hour. That was for a period of 9 days, though there are frequent drops in electric production from wind lasting full days, The link above shows drops down below 8GW per hour on 3.6.21, 3.3.2021, 3.6.2021. Storage is currently feasible to handle the frequene frequency when wind doesnt produce. I look forward to a solution.

nigelj at 18:03 PM on 15 March 2021

Most important steps to build out a completely renewable energy system

M Sweet, glad to have helped, but I can't recall reading the article or bringing it to your attention. Where and when did I do that? However I have just posted a link to the article and the research study over on RC. We all need some good news.

SunBurst at 17:49 PM on 15 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

Eclectic @37

What "large amounts of genuine information"? If you can't legitimately argue the most basic concept supporting all of your claims, you don't have anything!

SunBurst at 17:40 PM on 15 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

Rob Honeycutt @36

This is no "strawman" argument. It is exactly how it is stated in Lacis et. al. 2010. And I understand the basics of climate science all too well, well enough to recognize its clash with other more legitimate sciences.

Eclectic at 15:25 PM on 15 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

Yes, Sunburst @35 and prior ~ you have indeed been "through this many times before."

And each time you return to it, you have a different user-name.

But despite your many visits to SkS site over the years, you appear unable to learn anything ~ even though large amounts of genuine information is provided to you.

The real world seems too difficult for you.

Rob Honeycutt at 15:18 PM on 15 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

SunBurst... "Probably the most far-reaching inconsistency between fundamental physics and climate science is the assumption of an earth in perfect thermal equilibrium."

Essentially, your entire understanding of climate science is based on a strawman argument. If you can't be bothered to try to understand the basics of climate science you will necessarily be ignorant of it.

SunBurst at 13:52 PM on 15 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

MA Rodger @24

Given a fair chance, I believe I can clear up most of your concerns about my claims, and maybe even a few things you never quite understood. It would, however, take an open mind on your part and recognize the possibility that not all of the cardinal laws of modern "climate science" are consistent with fundament laws of phyics. Probably the most far-reaching inconsistency between fundamental physics and climate science is the assumption of an earth in perfect thermal equilibrium. Now you and I both know that can't possibly be true or all of your temperature data would show a uniform temperature over the entire surface. Also, relative humidity would be 100 percent everywhere. This is the basis, however, for arguing the CO2 "control knob" theory. As you may recall, this theory relies primarily on the Clausius-Claperyon equation which assumes a uniform temperature over the entire condensed state/vapor state sample. Since the entire earth is our "sample" in this case, CO2 cannot in general be the controlling GHG unless we have a uniform temperature earth.

Despite what seems to be total absurdity in this "control knob" theory, however, it is the reason why climate science does not allow dismissal of the CO2 greenhouse effect as small compared with that of H2O. It is also the basis for lingo such as forcings, feedbacks, fast and slow feedbacks, and the somewhat comical iceball earth scenarios. It seems to me that modern climate science has gotten into a mode of thinking that needs correction!

At this point, I have probably discussed these issues as much as I dare. In fact, I expect these comments will be taken down within 12 hours of when I post them. Your AGW comrades and moderators don't like to hear this kind of news about their pet theories. I've been through this many times before!

Rob Honeycutt at 11:49 AM on 15 March 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2021

SunBurst... Your question, I'm assuming, is, "When have we had CO2 levels as high as they are today?"

But that question was followed with the comment saying, "The story I keep hearing from the AGW folks is that current CO2 levels are unprecidented."

So... as MA Rogers just pointed out, the last time we've had CO2 levels this high was >3 mya. No one has ever claimed that current CO2 levels are unprecedented in all of earth's history. Current levels are unprecedented, certainly during the holocene, certainly during the past million years of glacial-interglacial cycles.

If you bother to read Dr Tripati's paper you mention you'd see the abstract states:

The carbon dioxide (CO2) content of the atmosphere has varied cyclically between ~180 and ~280 parts per million by volume over the past 800,000 years, closely coupled with temperature and sea level. For earlier periods in Earth’s history, the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is much less certain, and the relation between pCO2 and climate remains poorly constrained. We use boron/calcium ratios in foraminifera to estimate pCO2 during major climate transitions of the past 20 million years. During the Middle Miocene, when temperatures were ~3° to 6°C warmer and sea level was 25 to 40 meters higher than at present, pCO2 appears to have been similar to modern levels. Decreases in pCO2 were apparently synchronous with major episodes of glacial expansion during the Middle Miocene (~14 to 10 million years ago) and Late Pliocene (~3.3 to 2.4 million years ago).

This is consistent with what everyone exchanging comments with you right now has been stating, as well as being consistent with Al Gore's movie.

My suggestion is that you read both the Tripati paper and the Royer paper I previously posted. Then we can at least start to have a reasonably informed conversation about these issues.

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