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Rob Honeycutt at 04:28 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
L.J. Ryan... I think dhogaza's point is quite clear. He's saying the properties of CO2 are extremely well understood. -
trunkmonkey at 04:26 AM on 2 June 2011CO2 only causes 35% of global warming
Dikran Marsupial @6. As much relief as it is to be exonerated from lying, it is still a disappointment to remain a simpleton for not understanding that a large amount of CO2 essentially sequestered amongst hordes of H2Ov molecules in the lower troposphere is "entirely irrelevant to the greenhouse effect"; particularly as I wasn't discussing the greenhouse effect, but rather possible ways CO2 might contrtol water. I was trying to suggest (however crudely)that the lower troposphere is probably not a good place to look. Thanks for Le Quere 2009. Fig 2d does show a slight trend in increased ocean uptake, but it is from a model simulation, and the unexplained residual (2e) is greater than the trend. I was more interested if Fig 3 where actual measurements show CO2 outgassing in the circum antarctic beltway, the gulf stream, and the Indo Pacific warm pool that has garnered so much interest recently. It shows CO2 uptake in the northern Pacific. Imagine the THC superimposed on this map. The THC redistributes the cold salty Arctic/Atlantic (and the Antarctic) bottom water to the Pacific and Indian oceans. The net SST effect is to warm the Atlantic and cool the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The areas of outgassing in Fig 3 are the warm surface currents of the THC. (IMO the Indo Pacific warm pool is simply a backup of the Pacific return warm current at the restriction of Micronesia) Trunkmonkey prediction: Further data will show that the Indian Ocean, particularly whichever side of the IOD the cold water us upwelling on, will be a sink for CO2.Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] You asked "How do you know the oceans are a carbon sink and not a source?" the graph shows the ocean to be a considerable sink in absolute terms, the downward trend is a second order issue, so I don't know why you are fixating on the trend. Whenever the line is below zero, the oceans are a sink, whatever the slope of the line may be. You need to learn the basics first, that the oceans are a net sink is pretty basic. -
Paul D at 04:26 AM on 2 June 2011The Critical Decade - Part 2: Climate Risks
okatiniko "You live in a huge country : do you have any idea of how travelling across it without oil for instance ?" That is the point. You don't travel as much without the energy. Is there a problem with that? Does someone have the right to travel long distances? -
JMurphy at 04:25 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
L.J. Ryan wrote : "So what's your point?" It would be good if you could actually answer that question. -
L.J. Ryan at 04:17 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
dhogaza 148 "No, I'm pointing out that the physical properties of CO2 are extremely well understood by physicists..." So what's your point? -
dhogaza at 04:01 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
LJ Ryan:Are you suggesting atmospheric CO2 is functionally equivalent to a CO2 laser?
No, I'm pointing out that the physical properties of CO2 are extremely well understood by physicists and to imagine otherwise is an example of extreme denialism. -
dhogaza at 03:57 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
Eric (skeptic): "is an acceptable statement by a climate scientist? Or would a fair minded reader believe that to be unacceptable along with anonymous death threats." Color me old-fashioned, but I still recognize the difference between a call for legal action vs. a threat to kill someone. I'm rather appalled at your attempt to equate the two. Far more egregious than someone pointing out that science denialists and history (holocaust) denialists share certain traits ... And being a scientist does not mean that one can not or should not speak as a person. For federal employees, that's well-established in law, BTW. US Forest Service employees can speak out against USFS logging policies, if they want, including attending rallies and demonstrations against such policies, as long as they don't try to paint their personal views as being official views of portions of the agency (wearing your uniform at a demonstration's not a good idea, for instance). Hansen, as a NASA employee, is free to speak his mind as a person as long as he doesn't try to represent his personal opinions as being those of NASA. Why don't you respect his legal rights, and why do you attempt to equate them with the making of death threats? -
dhogaza at 03:52 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
garethman:but what do we call people who refuse to recognise on principle any peer reviewed research which does not fit with their complete belief in climate change models of one sort or another. Dogmatist? Taliban?
Perhaps you could be specific. One doesn't have to be dogmatist to reject the content of papers that claim, for instance, that modern physics violates the 2nd law of thermodynamics, or that claims that sensitivity is low based on cherry-picking short-term data, or that claims that satellites show that the world isn't warming when in reality the calculation contained several simple algebraic errors, etc etc. And what does "complete belief in climate change models" mean, anyway? No modeler holds that view. No serious student of the subject holds that view. Yet, they've proven themselves useful. -
Eric (skeptic) at 03:50 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
Tom Curtis, #138, point 1: would a fair minded reader also think that "CEOs of fossil energy companies know what they are doing and are aware of long-term consequences of continued business as usual. In my opinion, these CEOs should be tried for high crimes against humanity and nature." is an acceptable statement by a climate scientist? Or would a fair minded reader believe that to be unacceptable along with anonymous death threats. -
dhogaza at 03:44 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
"Apparently you didn't read Sphaerica's post which plainly stated: "Deniers are like Holocaust deniers. They are exactly like them."" See my 135 in which I said that I'd missed sphaerica's post. -
garethman at 03:31 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
Nice definition of the difference between a skeptic and a denier. Do we have a name for the opposite philosophy? Ie the skeptic title would be the same I suppose, but what do we call people who refuse to recognise on principle any peer reviewed research which does not fit with their complete belief in climate change models of one sort or another. Dogmatist? Taliban? I suspect somewhere around the centre ground are a group of people who take a healthy interest and are happy to look at any genuine evidence, pro or anti. -
Bob Lacatena at 03:14 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
139, apiratelooksat50,Probably be a good idea for you to win some converts to the cause.
Yes, but those converts won't come from the arrogant, lordly type who tend to post on real science blogs, let alone from the absurdly silly Wattsians that post on WUWT. The converts will come from the real skeptics who, because they are skeptical, don't post comments. They're not sure, and they're trying to learn. They're trying to wade through the morass of nonsense posted by the deniers to try to figure out where the real truth lies. And they aren't going to be offended by any widening gulf between deniers and people who understand the science. Quite to the contrary, it's going to illuminate things for them. So I encourage J. Bob to keep posting allegations that scientists are in it for the money. I encourage L.J. Ryan to keep expressing his palpable distaste at my total disregard for deniers as a collective group. I encourage all of the totally wrong and ridiculously starry eyed misinformation that deniers post. Because in the end, a large body of people are reading it, and doing what I did some years back, when I was still on the fence. They're shaking their heads, and going to the search box, and hunting down where the real truth lies. And after enough falsehoods have been exposed, there is one less skeptic in the room, and eventually all that is left are the educated, and the hopeless deniers. -
DSL at 03:11 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
Pirate: "The result creates a polarization and widens the gulf between believers and skepics." Any scientist should be a skeptic. That's why there is no theory without the material, evidential basis of experimentation and observation. Skeptics--and correct me if I'm wrong, pirate--should, based on existing evidence, develop a set of probabilities for a given theory, and then dynamically adjust those probabilities as new data arrive. No theory--not religion, not economic mode, not climate model, not government system--should be given a free pass (unquestioned acceptance). This is all I ask of anyone engaging in public debate: incorporate as much evidence as you can into your position, and when you encounter information that cannot be explained by your position, find the position that once again covers everything. Ignoring evidence, cherry-picking, crying "we don't know anything" when one element of a complex system is not yet well-understood, an unwillingness to ask questions for the sake of understanding (as opposed to asking them to accuse), and unwillingness to accept change in one's fundamental beliefs -- these are all signs that one's skeptical attitude is on vacation. An interesting question I'd like to see posed here is "Where will the global temp be in May 2050, and what are the five most significant factors in your prediction?" LJ, your comment at 111 is completely devoid of evidence. It's empty rhetoric. There's nothing worse than having to read a paragraph of empty rhetoric. Where exactly is your problem with the theory and the evidence upon which it is based (appropriate thread, please)? I suspect clips are made based on the interpretation that a comment is designed to generate a sticky stream of useless rhetorical discharge rather than inspire a progressive (uh-oh, I mean constructive) dialogue. The economic mode is perhaps even more complex than the climate, and there just isn't enough room here to engage constructively toward that subject. One well-managed thread connecting economic mode with climate would, I suspect, within two weeks generate more comments than all other threads combined (excepting the endless 2nd law thread, of course). -
Bob Lacatena at 03:05 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
135, dhogaza,Oh, I see that Sphaerica has ... I disapprove, actually.
I used to take that stance, until I had the word denier constantly edited from posts on a denial site, while "alarmist", "warmist", and any number of other labels were allowed to stand, and the legions of loyal followers bravely labeled themselves as "skeptics." All the while, their own understanding of the science would have shamed a ten year old. Then I started to think about it, and I realized that while the word was never intended to invoke that image, the emotional and culpable similarities are striking. Deniers didn't stumble into open dislike of that particular barb because they were overly sensitive. They stumbled in because, in their hearts, they know that it really does apply. I'm a little tired of "playing nice" with people who demonstrate a complete lack of ethics, often accompanied by extreme ignorance. And I'm not sure who's worse, the ignorant who are arrogant enough to think they know better, or those that know better and yet willfully, consciously play fast and loose with the facts to maintain the illusion of serious denial. When someone acts like a real skeptic (a pitifully infrequent behavior), I'll give them credit. When someone acts like a run-of-the-mill denier, I will be at first polite and reasonable, but I'll know who I'm dealing with, and what I'm thinking and what I'm posting may well be two very, very different things. -
apiratelooksat50 at 03:02 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
dhogaza @ 132 "Somehow I doubt that the laws of physics care at all about vitriolic comments ..." No one implied that. If Sphaerica is concerned about AGW and the goal is to immediately commence mitigation efforts, then it will be up to governments to enact laws to put those efforts into place. Most countries citizens will have to vote. Right now in the US, things aren't looking so good for that in the public perception. Probably be a good idea for you to win some converts to the cause. dhogaza @ 134 Apparently you didn't read Sphaerica's post which plainly stated: "Deniers are like Holocaust deniers. They are exactly like them." -
Tom Curtis at 02:59 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
apiratelooksat50 @131: 1) While the vitriol may do poorly influence the casual reader, the fair minded casual reader will probably be more concerned about the side that sends death threats along with a torrent of vitriol both by email and in blogs; 2) While possibly concerned at the frustration so evident in Sphaerica's comments, the fair minded reader would have been more concerned by the casual accusations and insinuations of fraud by scientists which have been posted by deniers on this site over the last two days, and which can be found in overwhelming numbers on denier sites, often accompanied with self congratulating posts about how high a standard of debate, and how polite the debate is on those sites. It is noticable that those accusations and insinuations pass without censor from you, while you argue that the websites that started those accusations are good sites for students to use as sources when studying science. 3) Any chance of reconciliation between climate science and deniers is entirely illusory and has been for some time. This is because the scientists insist on reporting reality, and its reality that the deniers have a problem with. -
Bob Lacatena at 02:58 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
131, apiratelooksat50,widens the gulf between believers and skepics
I'd forgotten that one. "Believers." Another trick name to make it look like people who understand the science are somehow indulging a religious faith. Let me make it clear. I don't attack individuals (unless they demonstrate clear, unethical behavior, so many deniers do), but I will label the behavior of deniers as such. When someone drifts into denial, or their skepticism comes across as nothing more than a veil to hide their denial, then I will say as much. I personally don't care about the feelings of deniers (if you feel the denier label applies to you, then that's your conscience at work, but yes, my sensitivity to the difference between an actual skeptic and a simple denier is a lot lower than yours, I'm sure). My take is that deniers don't care about anything except their own money and economic standing. They pretend to have lots of reasons for adopting their position, but in the end it's either greed, anger or ignorance. -
giniajim at 02:54 AM on 2 June 2011Of Averages and Anomalies - Part 1A. A Primer on how to measure surface temperature change
This is a great series; thanks for doing it. I do have a question about the actual temperature measurements. Can you expound a bit on what is actually measured and recorded at the stations? I have an image of a person going out and looking at a thermometer every hour and writing down the temperature that he observes. What can we say about the accuracy of the instrument and the precision of his observation? Does he then report every day the hourly recordings? Is his station location (lat/long/alt) also captured somehow? Is a daily average computed from the hourly data points? Thanks.Response:[DB] This may help with some of your questions.
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L.J. Ryan at 02:47 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
dhogaza 120 "Wake me up when CO2 lasers stop working ... " Are you suggesting atmospheric CO2 is functionally equivalent to a CO2 laser? -
dhogaza at 02:43 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
Oh, I see that Sphaerica has ... I disapprove, actually. -
dhogaza at 02:42 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
apirate ... "They are offensive in comparing it to Holocaust deniers..." this is a comparison that only exists in the minds of tone trolls, the fact that you buy into it is telling. Where has anyone here made such a comparison? Who is the only poster here who has made the comparison? That would be you ... -
L.J. Ryan at 02:42 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
DB 111 ( -Ideological diatribe snipped- ) Response: [DB] Please refrain from the use of all-caps and keep the focus on the science, not on politics and ideologies. My post is ideological and political. But Sphaerica 114 calling skeptics (Deniers)and then equating skeptics to Holocaust deniers is not ideological not political? I suspect you snip based context accuracy and brunt, not as you declared, an objective washing of politics and ideology.Response:[DB] Greater leeway is allowed than normal, considering the subject matter of this thread. The appellation Denier is inherent to this thread, unfortunately.
Introducing yet more politics and ideologies pushes the thread into a train wreck.
As to Sphaerica's post, he was relating it into the context of denial of the science, which is the subject of this thread. The part about the Holocaust was a personal opinion, yet also within the context of this thread, as it is a very common reaction from the skeptic contingent.
Let's all be civil and compose temperate remarks, rather than typing the first or second things that come into our heads. Or, like me, I end up deleting my own comments upon further reflection.
Complaints about moderation, unfortunately, tend to get disappeared.
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dhogaza at 02:41 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
apirate ... "While I can appreciate your passion, your vitriolic comments are doing more harm than good for your cause." Somehow I doubt that the laws of physics care at all about vitriolic comments ... -
apiratelooksat50 at 02:05 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
Sphaerica @ 114, From a Skeptic, not a Denier: While I can appreciate your passion, your vitriolic comments are doing more harm than good for your cause. They are offensive in comparing it to Holocaust deniers, incorrect in assuming skeptics don't accept climate change, and unwise because they misdirect rational discourse. The result creates a polarization and widens the gulf between believers and skepics. If your goal is to teach - then teach. You have an audience here of intelligent and educated people. Remembering that you and I partially agree, I suspect that you categorize people like me who don't fully agree with you as un-intelligent, and therefore not worthy of your teaching. You complained about being mistreated at WUWT, so I would expect that you would treat skeptics on this site with the respect and dignity that you desire. In other posts on this thread, I've stated very clearly my position. We differ solely on our perceptions of the predicted results and to what level mitigation efforts should be enacted. -
dhogaza at 02:00 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
J Bob: "might blind one to information within. After all, diamonds come from some pretty dirty places. So while one may not agree with an opinion, sometimes there is information to be had, even from WUWT." True, if it weren't for WUWT, I'd be unaware that it snows CO2 dry ice in antarctica and other really fascinating things hidden from us by mainstream science ... -
dhogaza at 01:57 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
"but the use of "DENIERS"" ... DB - that was a copy-paste quote on my part, not my own use of all-caps, just to be clear ... -
Tom Curtis at 01:49 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
J Bob @126: While there is some good information to be had from WUWT and the like, it is indistinguishable at source from the overwhelming fountain of crap which is the normal fare. Consequently, to gain useful information from WUWT you need to vet all information back to original scientific papers, and then read peer reviewed review articles, or failing that recent text books, or at a minimum, sites like Skeptical Science of Real Climate so that you can find the other relevant papers so that you don't get conned into cherry picking data. Given the effort involved, you would get the same information for less effort by going straight to those review articles, textbooks, or decent websites in the first place. You'll even find out about the information the WUWT crowd really thinks is important (and don't want you to think about anything else) from rebuttals (on the websites). It makes as much sense to refer students to WUWT (or allow them to reference it in assignments) as it would to allow students doing an assignment on human exploration of space to reference moon landing conspiracy sites. As it stands, any halfway decent teacher won't even let students reference wikipedia. Why on Earth would they let a student reference WUWT? -
KR at 01:33 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
J. Bob - I thought some of the data on the climate4you site looked familiar. It's run by Ole Humlum. See the two threads on Humlum's previous work here and here. His data is heavily cherry-picked to present a particular point of view, which is exceedingly poor science. As you yourself have noted, it's worthwhile to consider the presenter and the quality of their scientific endeavors. Sites like climate4you, jonova, co2science, WUWT, ClimateRealists, ClimateAudit, and the like are much less credible as a result - their past work (to put it somewhat politely) stinks. -
Eric the Red at 01:23 AM on 2 June 2011The Critical Decade - Part 2: Climate Risks
michael, The other part of the message is that aerosols had a greater impact on the cooling up until ~1980. Part of the rapid temperature increase was due to atmospheric aerosol reduction. The question is, were these natural or man-made aerosols that predominated? Hence, the longer term temperature record is a better indicator of future changes than the last several years. Also, 1998 was a year of high solar activity. -
J. Bob at 01:03 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
Sphaerica 77 & dhogaza, It would appear from the complimentary remarks, I must have struck a nerve. WUWT, RC etc., may have their views. However, comments like; “On another vein, people who suggest that one should look at multiple sources for information are certainly correct, but if those multiple sources include inflammatory, politically oriented, and grossly unbalanced and misinforming sites like ClimateAudit, WUWT, and others... well, you're kidding yourselves. They're fooling you, and you're happily fooling yourselves”. might blind one to information within. After all, diamonds come from some pretty dirty places. So while one may not agree with an opinion, sometimes there is information to be had, even from WUWT. -
michael sweet at 01:02 AM on 2 June 2011The Critical Decade - Part 2: Climate Risks
Ken, Dr. Hansens paper points out that for the past 5 years we have had the lowest solar activity for decades. This low solar output accounts for much of the lower heat accumulation in the past 5 years. Keep in mind that the two hottest years recorded were 2010 and 2005, both when solar output was low. Solar activity is now increasing. New heat records will come much faster as the sun warms again. Hansen postulates that aerosol reflection has reduced the increase in temperature so far from AGW more than models account for. That is bad news in the long run. When the people in China and India get tired of the pollution and reduce aerosols, the planet will substantially warm as aerosols are reduced. This warming cannot be stopped. The take home message from Hansen is that we must take action immediately if we want to avoid the worst of the problems. Your suggestion that Hansens result means we have no worries now is wrong. -
KR at 01:02 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
J. Bob - "If you dig a little deeper at those two sites, you will find the references to the original data sources, (i.e. HadCRUT, NOAA, GISS, UAH, RSS, etc.)." Agreed, and I did see those links. The presentation/summary provided on the climate4you site (which I specifically was discussing), however, was rather less comprehensive, and appeared slanted towards a particular point of view, namely that "It's not warming since 1998". It was a very one-sided presentation. I by no means consider peer-review a panacea against bad or biased science - I could name a number of people who have produced just such 'gems', and there are threads on this very blog that discuss those. But the review process filters out most junk, and later analysis in the field by those who study it results in citations, support, or refutations. That doesn't happen with advocacy papers, as a rule. No one paper stands on it's own. That's why it's important to read more than one paper on a subject before leaping to the conclusion (as so many 'skeptics' have done) that an entire field of study is invalid. -
Utahn at 00:53 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
Tom Curtis, I agree with just about everything you said, with the "denier/those in denial" exception noted above. Eric and all, as for the whole 2C cutoff for "those in denial" I'm happy to stop talking about it as it is a small if slightly interesting eddy in the ocean of commentary that Internet threads spawn... -
mike roddy at 00:53 AM on 2 June 2011The Critical Decade - Part 2: Climate Risks
Another good one, John, more concise and readable than most reports. Australia and the US have a lot in common- abundant coal and alternative energy, and a coal industry that will literally do anything to maintain market share. Hopelessly dumb and corrupt politicians, too. And strange comment trolls, as Mr. Lambert above. Let's hope that one of us wakes up soon, and brings the other with him.Response:[DB] Please, can everyone refrain from attaching the appellation of "troll/trolling"? If you feel a comment is off-topic, challenge the originator of the comment, appropriately and within the confines of the Comments Policy and direct them to a more appropriate thread.
This forum belongs to all of you. Self-policing will keep other activities to a minimum. For those, bring it to the attention of the moderators. Because sometimes we miss stuff. Happens. :(
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Dan Olner at 00:45 AM on 2 June 2011The Critical Decade - Part 2: Climate Risks
Ken - I was thinking the same thing recently about summer arriving here in the UK. The temp data since April had flattened massively, and stayed there. Obviously, I concluded that everyone claiming Summer was indeed on the way were lying toe-rags. (Something to do with climate forcing due to the angle of the Earth to the sun, they said: nonsense! May was cold!) But get this: it got hotter again. Now I'm completely confused. It's almost as if I shouldn't have used a short, few-weeks temperature trend to make any conclusions about what season it was. Breaking out of passive-aggressive mode for a mo: anyone who can understand why it can get colder for a few weeks without upsetting the order of the seasons can also understand why you don't conclude much from short-term climate variation. If you can't understand that, fair enough. If you can, you're just trolling.Response:[dana1981] Well said. I always enjoy a bit of good sarcasm!
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Tom Curtis at 00:42 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
Eric the Red @119, the probabilities are 2 to 4.5 > 66%, less than 1.5% < 10%. It is not a normal distribution, with probabilities of high values of the high end tail being greater than that of the low end. Still if it where a normal distribution, the probability of less than 2% or greater than 4.5% would be < 34%. Therefore the probability of less than 2% is certainly less than 17%. Therefore the probability of between 1.5 and 2% is less than 17%-10%, or less than 7%. I rounded that to 5% as a rough allowance for the extended high end tail. Those who claim a 1.5% to 2% (of whom there are not many) are pushing the edges of what can be reasonably maintained given available evidence. Oddly there are many more people who would claim a climate sensitivity of 0.5% than those who would claim the far more rational 1.5 to 2%. Or perhaps not so oddly, given the topic of this thread... -
J. Bob at 00:42 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
KR @ 101 If you dig a little deeper at those two sites, you will find the references to the original data sources, (i.e. HadCRUT, NOAA, GISS, UAH, RSS, etc.). While they are not the end all, they have some good graphics and a simple ref. pt. to get more basic data. The Rimfrost has the option of getting the long term data (200+ years) for inserting into analysis programs. The long term central & western Europe plots I presented in J. Bob @ 52, used this source. It also has some interesting tools such as a quick country average graph ( including Arctica & Antarctica ). In my case, use of the original or basic data sources, form the basis of my analysis, in trying to get a picture of just what is going on. While “peer” reviewed papers are nice, I was in the process long enough to be wary of swallowing them “hook line & sinker”.I have seen more then I care for of “grant grabbing”, and how papers can be used as a means to a predetermined non-scientific end.Response:[DB] Be aware that the portion I have struck out is an allegation of impropriety and thus a Comments Policy violation. Commenting here is a privilege, not a right. Similarly, adherence to the Comments Policy is mandatory, not optional. Please take the time to familiarize yourself with the policy & ensure that future comments adhere to it.
Your participation here is valued, but the focus of the discussion needs to stay on the science itself.
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pbjamm at 00:31 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
I am not sure if this thread is responsible or if some other unaccounted for Natural Variation is at play, but there has been a noticeable decline in the levels of civility on this blog. Much unchecked name calling, labeling, and suggestions of mental deficiency. Please mods, stamp this behavior out before it becomes the new norm.Response:[DB] Agreed. Disagreement is fine, but civility is a requirement, not an option.
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Ken Lambert at 00:21 AM on 2 June 2011The Critical Decade - Part 1: The Science
DB Then I will ask you politely. What is the meaning of this statement which you captioned above an already 'corrected' chart? "[DB] SLR plots from UCAR/NCAR need to have the corrections applied to them to account for regional isostatic rebound effects and seasonal effects to be properly filtered out. If using the unadjusted/improperly adjusted data, one risks writing posts on CO2 snow..."Response:[DB] I was attempting to answer a question about GIA and why, as a local and regional effect rather than a global effect, it needs to be accounted for and incorporated into the UCAR graphics. Like the one shown/linked to. Thank you for relaying the UCAR methodology on that for further clarity.
If my verbiage was less-than-clear on that point, I apologize. The goal is to be clear, but [I] occasionally fall short in that endeavor.
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dhogaza at 00:11 AM on 2 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
LJ Ryan: "Those whom accept GHG physics and data, the reasonable skeptics, need only be convinced of the sensitivities the margins...an easier argument. The others, the "Head in the Sand" type the DENIERS...they need be singled out for ridicule. ... Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier? is evidence the only thing melting is once solid support of AGW." In other words, LJ Ryan is a denier who does not accept "GHG physics" (which implies he denies much else known to physicists). And RSVP sticks up for LJ, so RSVP? You, too, proudly wear the "denier" label? Wake me up when CO2 lasers stop working ...Response:[DB] I realize the all-caps was a tit-for-tat, but I warned LJ so I have to warn you also about their use (not about the acronyms, which are fine, but the use of "DENIERS").
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Eric the Red at 23:42 PM on 1 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
I tend to agree with you Curtis. Although I think your math may be off. I suspect that < 1.5 and > 4.5 will add up to 10% based on a normal ball-shaped distribution (you can argue the distribution curve). That leaves 24% to occur between 1.5 and 2.0 C and 4.5 and 5.0 C combined. Assuming the same bell shape, that leaves 12% probability of a climate sensitivity between 1.5 and 2.0 (almost 1 in 8). Not exactly a long shot, but still not the favorite. Those who choose a low value to accommodate their own viewpoints could be classified as deniers. Those who have calculated or researched the science and have determined (difference between chosen) that the climate sensitivity should be low, would not. -
adelady at 23:37 PM on 1 June 2011The Critical Decade - Part 2: Climate Risks
okatiniko "You live in a huge country : do you have any idea of how travelling across it without oil for instance ? that would be a huge change !" Why not? The Indian-Pacific railway runs east-west between Sydney and Perth travelling through Broken Hill and Port Augusta with a diversion to Adelaide. I can see no good reason why current technology wouldn't develop to allow that train to be completely electric. Anyone who wants personal car travel can either hire at the other end or transport their own vehicle (preferably EV) on the train as well. Similar considerations apply to the north-south route of the Ghan going from Adelaide to Darwin. -
Utahn at 23:30 PM on 1 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
Sphaerica, I'm not really *that* into labels. My initial post was really just pointing out to pirate that 4 out of the 5 proposed categories presented were still in some form of denial. Personally, it's not in my nature to label people (maybe it's a weakness). I don't think deniers is inappropriate, but I don't think I can use it. Using that term to me connotes a "lost soul", and while some of the leading deniers are undoubtedly beyond hope, many aren't. But any, however slim, chance of providing information to honest skeptics is likely lost if they are put in one big labeled category. I am also not sure being called a warmist or alarmist makes me feel like I can say "denier". So for now I'm going with "those in denial." -
Tom Curtis at 23:28 PM on 1 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
UtahN @104, on this rare occasion I have to disagree with Sphaerica as well. According to the IPCC AR4, it is "likely" that climate sensitivity lies between 2 and 4.5 degrees C per doubling of CO2, with the most likely value being around 3 degrees C. Translated, as the IPCC so conveniently does for us, that indicates a better than 66% probability given the evidence that the climate sensitivity is between 2 and 4.5 degrees. The IPCC also conveniently informs us that it is very unlikely (< 10% probability) that the climate sensitivity is below 1.5 degrees C. Taking these two figures together, that means based on available evidence in 2007, the IPCC could not exclude the possibility that there is a one in twenty chance that the climate sensitivity lies between 1.5 and 2 degrees C. (Note, this is not the same as saying there is a 1 in 20 chance.) The point of this is that while 1 in 20 is an epistemic longshot, such longshots often (once in twenty times, oddly enough) come of. Therefore it is rational to pursue them. Somebody who believes the climate sensitivity to be in that range and rationally researches that possibility is not, as a result of that a "denier". Having said that, if they are indeed rationally pursuing the possibility of a low climate sensitivity, they must recognise that on available evidence, it is a long shot. They must be aware that they believe the climate sensitivity is low, but that the evidence is currently against them. If they do not recognise that, then they are in denial about the evidence. Of course, if they do recognise that low climate sensitivity is a long shot, they will not be recommending governments base their policy on that possibility. They would expect the government to base its policy on the concensus opinion. Now I am sure there are such people out there in the scientific community, just as there are people on the other side of the equation; who think the IPCC underestimates climate sensitivity (or the threat of sea level rise, or what have you) but are aware that the evidence does not favour their belief. But I have not met (to my recall) a single person who claims a low climate sensitivity on the internet who does not also either claim that we should not do anything against global warming; or that we should not drop the whole global warming issue from the debate about emissions restrictions (which they purport to support for some other reason, either energy security, of ocean acidification). IN other words, while it is certainly possible to believe in both a fairly low climate sensitivity and not be a denier; the assertion of low climate sensitivity is almost perfectly correlated with denial."Honestly I'm sorry I even mentioned this, in any case after rolling it around on my tongue I'm not sure I like the word "denier" after all. It is, naturally, name calling. Accurate name calling, but still name calling. From now on I am going to use the more cumbersome, "those who are in denial of the science of climate change" or "those in denial" for slightly shorter. It feels like less of an indictment of the person, and implies my stated belief that some (certainly not all) of those in denial will not always be in denial."
I would see some point in this, except that the denier movement very quickly named themselves "skeptics", and very explicitly did it in order to suggest their greater intellectual integrity than climate scientists, who where very explicitly labelled as not being skeptical. For a while I went along with their self designation, but after a while I could not keep repeating that lie in good conscience. Rather than use a false descriptor in their name, I now use an accurate one - "denier". This is just a case of the denier movements rhetorical sins coming home to roost. Had they chosen a neutral name for themselves, there would not be any issue. -
les at 23:26 PM on 1 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
110 RSVP " am technically correct in my statement." No. You are philosophically "correct" if you are a relativist - and, personally, I think there's something quite relativist and post-modern in the attitude of some of the more reactionary anti-science brigade. If that's where you at, you are, of course, at liberty to be so. Again, that is relativism, not 'relativity' which most folks associate which physics theories and which is nothing to do with anthropocentric views of anything. -
Alexandre at 23:20 PM on 1 June 2011Amazon drought: A death spiral? (part 2:climate models)
Rob #16 Actually, my question was about floods in southern Brazil, not southern Amazon. I think my previous post could be more explicit. Thanks for your response, anyway. Before your article, I did not know about this convergence of models on the drying of the southern Amazon. -
Ken Lambert at 23:07 PM on 1 June 2011The Critical Decade - Part 1: The Science
DB & Camburn #102 I referred to this UCAR Chart of GMSL (Global Mean Sea Level) in this thread: http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/global-mean-sea-level-time-series-seasonal-signals-removed DB has posted Tamino's Charts at #102, and cast doubt on the UCAR Charts as somehow uncorrected for GIA and other effects; viz: Response: "[DB] SLR plots from UCAR/NCAR need to have the corrections applied to them to account for regional isostatic rebound effects and seasonal effects to be properly filtered out. If using the unadjusted/improperly adjusted data, one risks writing posts on CO2 snow..." This is what UCAR say on their website: "Prior to release 2011_rel1, we did not account for GIA in estimates of the global mean sea level rate, but this correction is now scientifically well-understood and is applied to GMSL estimates by nearly all research groups around the world. Including the GIA correction has the effect of increasing previous estimates of the global mean sea level rate by 0.3 mm/yr." AND "The GMSL rate corrected for GIA represents changes in water mass and density in the oceans. These changes are thought to be predominantly driven by thermal expansion of the oceans and land ice melt (Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and glaciers)." Now go back and look at the UCAR Chart. It captions 'Inverse Barometer applied and GIA corrected" AND "seasonal signals removed". DB - what further corrections would be needed to the UCAR Charts to make them acceptable to you, and why would Tamino's charts be superior measures of global mean sea level?Response:[DB] "DB has posted Tamino's Charts at #102, and cast doubt on the UCAR Charts as somehow uncorrected for GIA and other effects"
The only doubt implied here is by you in order to manufacture controversy. The graphic I used clearly shows GIA already applied, like I said that they needed to have incorporated into them.
"DB - what further corrections would be needed to the UCAR Charts to make them acceptable to you, and why would Tamino's charts be superior measures of global mean sea level?"
Again the attempt to manufacture controversy and sow the seeds of doubt. Tamino's charts and graphics succinctly illustrate a different analysis of the data which is mutually complementary to that provided by UCAR. To say that they are not, which you are doing here, is dissembling.
My recommendation would be to simply ask, without invective or snark, for clarification about things you don;t understand. For you either don't understand them or you are actively choosing to misunderstand or to misrepresent what was said. If the latter is the case, than the course of action you are prosecuting can be aptly called "moderator trolling".
If the former, then ask. Politely.
If the latter, then desist. Or you will have to find a different venue to ply your case.
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RSVP at 22:45 PM on 1 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
L.J. Ryan 111 "Those stateside will recognize this same tactic employed by the political left to avoid meaningful debate. " ...but it wasn't so long ago when we were hearing, "yer either fur, r 'ginst us".Response:[DB] Let's not descend into the abyssal morass of politics.
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Bob Lacatena at 22:44 PM on 1 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
104, Utahn, You can organize and label deniers in your head any way you like, but creating and using respectable, common labels for them merely gives them credibility that they do not deserve. Deniers are deniers are deniers. And I make no apologies if they take it as an insult, which is exactly how they attempt to use the terms "warmists" and "alarmists." Deniers are like Holocaust deniers. They are exactly like them. There is a clear, undeniable truth which makes them personally, squirmingly uncomfortable, because it means that their cherished way of life may not be the best way, and in fact may be hurting hundreds of millions of people and destroying the futures of their own beloved countries. They can't stomach that and take responsibility for it, or for the future for themselves or others, so they deny. That level of selfishness is not mere polite disagreement. It's down right cruel arrogance. Attempts to justify it with RSVP's "individualism" or J. Bob's conspiracy theories or RW1's faux science or any other methods of minimizing or obfuscating the obvious are just sugar-coated arrogance. They are deniers, no matter how nicely they'd like to dress it up. -
Eric the Red at 22:41 PM on 1 June 2011Can we trust climate models?
If you integrated stratospheric and tropospheric aerosols over time, how would that compare with GHG forcing? Eschenbach also stated in the reference, that "the idea of a liner connection between inputs and outputs in a comlex, multiply interconnect, chaotic system like the climate to be a risibile fantasy." He may have gotten those results by chance.
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