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Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Russ R. - Considering that the document in question was anonymously sent to Gleick in hard copy, prompting the social engineering he did to get the rest of the documents, that document (with appropriate caveats due to the lack of provenance) is the least morally questionable of the papers involved. It wasn't stolen, and is entirely consistent with the content of other documents Heartland has acknowledged to be real.
It's still up at DesmogBlog, too.
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:30 PM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
These "balancing" or "Alternative point of view" claims are definitely not about improving the best understanding of the science, or about developing the best understanding of what needs to be done.
Lawson and many other very powerful business and political figures have devoted their entire life's effort to the promotion of benefit for the few for a short-time, pushing all they can get away with to make it easier for wealth to be obtained from many unsustainable and damaging activities, including, but not limited to, the burning of fossil fuels.
Only a fool, or a person who shares the deep desire to maximize the short-term benefit for the few from unsustainable and damaging activities, would consider that type of person to be a reasonable party to invite to comment on the merits of "undoing all their life's work, just for the benefit of future generations who have no vote and have no money to spend today".
The future of humanity requires leaders who will genuinely push for the rapid development of sustainable ways of living, in spite of the popularity or proifitability that can be 'created by the fallible actions of greedy people". The sooner these type of people are unable to get away with their unacceptable desires the better it will be for everyone else.
It needs to be clear that there is a real "Us vs. Them" battle to be fought. Unsustainable and damaging activities threaten the sustainability of economies, societies, and humanity's future on this amazing planet.
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Russ R. at 13:10 PM on 28 February 2014Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Contradicting the claim above in "UPDATE 2" that "the link to the climate strategy document below has been removed, as Heartland disputes its authenticity.", I should bring to your attention that 2 years later, this page is still quoting from and linking to the fake "Confidential Memo: 2012 Heartland Climate Strategy" document.
I'm assuming this is merely an oversight that will be corrected.
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scaddenp at 13:02 PM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Gosh, do tell. Who are these people who didnt think this was a serious error of judgement?
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Russ R. at 12:32 PM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Rob Honeycutt,
"As well, no one that I know of has ever condoned Gleick's actions."
Then you are indeed fortunate. I could name many prominent individuals who have done exactly that.
"But it's absurd to compare that to the CRU and SkS hacks where people have systematically, deliberated, and with malice of forethought, perpetrated very serious crimes."
Would you be so kind as to explain what is so "absurd" about the comparison? Assuming the SkS hacker did indeed gain unauthorized access to obtain private information and leaked it publicly, how does that differ from Peter Gleick's actions?
"I find Russ' comparison insulting and a deliberate attempt at distraction from the issue at hand."
I can't imagine why you would feel insulted. I never mentioned you, nor did I suggest you would support Gleick's actions. And it's hardly a "distraction for the issue at hand". You were the one who mentioned "people out there with such low standards of morality as to believe it's okay to do this". I simply provided an example.
"If he wishes to discuss the merits of whether or not the Heartland docs should be posted on SkS, it should be done on that thread, not here."
I already noted above that "I have no issue with SkS continuing to link to the real Heartland documents..." But fair enough, I'll move discussion of the fake document to the other thread.
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kanspaugh at 10:26 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
I can't help but to wonder if a contrarian such as Judith Curry would have any name recognition at all (outside of the small number of climate scientists working in her area of expertise) if not for this mindless pursuit of "balance" by journalists. It can elevate a relative mediocrity to genius (celebrity?) status.
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scaddenp at 10:13 AM on 28 February 2014Humidity is falling
dwm - firstly I note that you are reading links, which is good, but to defend your position why do you need to do so? I would assume that you would adopt a position on the basis of papers you have read or had least been reported on but so far you havent shown us what these were.
Second, it is a bit of a stunning leap to jump from the bolded quote to your conclusions. In particular, why are historical values of any importance to climate models? Also, you seem to have missed the actual conclusion of the Gentleman and Fu paper. The important point is that if climate models had it badly wrong, then they would not be modelling OLR which is sum of those processes.
For Spencer, I have responded to you here.
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scaddenp at 10:12 AM on 28 February 2014Nazis, shoddy science, and the climate contrarian credibility gap
Responding from another thread:
As to Spencer - well: "I view my job a little like a legislator, supported by the taxpayer, to protect the interests of the taxpayer and to minimize the role of government."
I have a preferrence for scientists who see their job as finding out what is not known and creating useful theories; but my main objection to Spencer is his actual attempts at science and serial misinformation. More about that here but check out the articles for yourself. He can say what he likes on blogs, but for credibility in science you have to back those assertions which he has consisitantly failed to do. In short, Spencer position on a matter of science seems instead to be an ideological one. Proposed solutions to climate change dont fit the ideology and he would appear to be bankrupt of alternative suggestions which do fit his ideology, ergo climate change must be natural. Yeah, right.
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Alexandre at 10:03 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
I remember the late BBC One Planet podcast, that covered environmental issues: they had this "balance" in their interviews, giving space to the likes of Richard Lindzen and letting him get away with claims like "high sensitivity is just the result of biased models" or that the reason for virtually the whole scientific comunity to support climate action was "vested interests".
This podcast has had its good moments, but bad moments like this made me feel less sorry for them being cut off.
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Rob Honeycutt at 09:41 AM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Tom... There are certainly people out there who condone Peter's actions, and I don't think they are right to do so, especially seeing as Peter doesn't condone Peter's actions. Those folks are far and few.
I also think there are private discussions about Peter's actions where people float such views for the purposes of exploring the issue, but without making a public declaration that they would condone his actions.
I find Russ' comparison insulting and a deliberate attempt at distraction from the issue at hand.
If he wishes to discuss the merits of whether or not the Heartland docs should be posted on SkS, it should be done on that thread, not here. Conflating the two events is not warranted.
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dwm at 09:20 AM on 28 February 2014Humidity is falling
I meant to mention, Tom, that I’m glad you brought up AQUA. Here are a couple of statements by Dr. Spencer’s who is the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite.
"we do not have enough accurate global data for a long enough period of time to see whether there are natural warming mechanisms at work”
"the climate system is quite insensitive to humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions and aerosol pollution."
He has a website if you'd be open to checking out an alternative viewpoint.
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Tom Curtis at 09:13 AM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Rob Honeycutt @6, my take is somewhat different, in that I believe I have encountered people who have condoned Gleick's actions. They have done so either on the grounds that the situation is now so desperate with regard to climate change that the end justifies the means; or the grounds that once "skeptics" began hacking and publishing the internal emails of scientists (and The Heartland Institute certainly republished them), they set a standard whereby they wished to be treated (ie, "Sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander").
Personally, I believe that neither attitude is correct. Indeed, given that SkS has frequently moderated posts to delete links to either the UEA emails (I believe), or to draft versions of IPCC AR5 on the grounds that the information was obtained unethically, I think SkS as a matter of consistency should not link the the Heartland Institute documents. Either that or change its moderation policy to allow links to hacked or unethically leaked material that we consider unethically obtained, and/or published. Of the two, I believe the former to be the better approach.
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Phil at 08:54 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
The response by the BBC reported by MA Rodger @1 could be annotated thus
Whilst there may be a scientific consensus about global warming - that it is happening and largely man-made - there is no similar agreement about what should be done to tackle it; whether money should be spent, for example, on cutting carbon emissions or would be better used adapting our defences to the changing climate. Lord Lawson is not a scientist, but as a former Chancellor of the Exchequer is well qualified to comment on the economic arguments, which are a legitimate area for debate.
Maybe, but Lord Lawson was not invited to discuss the economic arguments, he was discussing whether the recent extreme rainfall in the UK was linked to climate change. That is not an "economic argument". Moreover he was put up against a climate scientist whose area of expertese is not economics. Why ?We believe there has to be space in the BBC’s coverage where scientific consensus meets reasonable argument about the policy implications of that consensus view.
If that is the case, then again why was Sir Brian Hoskins invited to take part, since he is not a policy maker ? Moreover the implication of this statement by the BBC appears to be that, somehow disliking the policy implications of climate change is sufficient reason to doubt the physical science - which is a nonsensical position. There is aboslutely no reason why the scientific consensus on global warming should "meet" arguments about the policy implications; because the policy can have no influence on physics.
That said we do accept that we could have offered a clearer description of the sceptical position taken by Lord Lawson and the Global Warming Policy Foundation in the introduction. That would have clarified in the audience’s minds the ideological background to the arguments.
Perhaps they should have included this too
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Rob Honeycutt at 08:53 AM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Russ R... As well, no one that I know of has ever condoned Gleick's actions. But it's absurd to compare that to the CRU and SkS hacks where people have systematically, deliberated, and with malice of forethought, perpetrated very serious crimes.
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Paul Pukite at 08:49 AM on 28 February 2014Nazis, shoddy science, and the climate contrarian credibility gap
mgardner said:
"So, rather than respond at the level appropriate to the debate as presented by skeptics, and the audience it is aimed at, they foster the impression that rebuttal requires an ever-more complex analysis. "
One of my goals is to create an ever more simple analysis and not rely on GCMs. Skeptics should like that. One approach I take is to include factors that alternative theory scientists such as Scafetta and Curry want to see in the models. Skeptics should also like that.
What I am finding that skeptics don't like, is that even with all this bowing to their wishes, when the results don't agree with their preset notiions they still complain.
The goal-posts will always move.
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Rob Honeycutt at 08:44 AM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Russ R... Interestingly, Peter Gleick, himself, stated that he believed it was wrong what he did, that he definitely had a lapse in judgement.
Has anyone done the same after the CRU hack? Has anyone bravely apologized for the SkS hack?
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Russ R. at 08:36 AM on 28 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
"And it's just phenominal to me that there are people out there with such low standards of morality as to believe it's okay to do this."
Peter Gleick, for example... and those who condone his actions in phishing and leaking documents from the Heartland Institute.
By the way, just thought I should let you know that SkS is still quoting from and linking to the 2-yr old fake "Confidential Memo: 2012 Heartland Climate Strategy" document of which Gleick denies authorship. (http://www.skepticalscience.com/denialgate-heartland.html). I'm assuming this is merely an oversight that will be corrected.
N.B.
- I accept on good faith that SkS' editors intended to remove links to the fake document, and simply missed one link and a few quotations.
- I have no issue with SkS continuing to link to the real Heartland documents despite the "low standards of morality" employed in their acquisition.
- I commend SkS for removing those documents that contain individuals' personal information.
- I do not support the Heartland Institute in any way.
- I do not condone the actions of whoever hacked SkS.
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dwm at 06:53 AM on 28 February 2014Humidity is falling
Hi Tom,(-snip-)
I am familiar with the water vapor articles on the Doom site, but I hadn't read the latest, thank you for that.Looking it over, I found several qualifying statements in the article that basically agree with the opinions I have been posting. You seem to have missed them so here they are:
This quote from Doom corroborates exactly what I said (in bold):
"A major problem with analyzing UTWV is that most historic measurements are poor for this region. The upper troposphere is very cold and very dry – two issues that cause significant problems for radiosondes."
This quote from Doom also agrees with what I wrote, water vapour is a critical issue (hence potential weak spot), and it is massively complex (hence hard to calculate and easy to get wrong, exhaustive study is necessary before having confidence):
"The question of how water vapor responds to increasing surface temperature is a critical one in climate research.
vapor concentration in the free troposphere is dependent on the global circulation, making it dependent on the massive complexity of atmospheric dynamics."
This quote from Doom concedes it is "very possible" that climate models get it "wrong" when he writes that
some people may “acknowledge that climate models attempt to calculate humidity from some kind of physics but believe that these climate models get it wrong. That is of course very possible."Gettelman & Fu concede that their short (and scattered) data sample by itself is “not sufficient”, or in other words, only one step in a long road yet ahead before we can conclude with confidence that the models are accurate:
"The hypothesis we seek to test is whether water vapor in the model responds to changes in surface temperatures in a manner similar to the observations. This can be viewed as a necessary but not sufficient condition for the model to reproduce the upper-tropospheric water vapor feedback caused by external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions."Moderator Response:[Dikran Marsupial] Moderation complaints snipped. Moderation complaints are by definition off-topic and will be deleted (after reading). I have snipped the moderation complaint this time, but in future the whole comment will be deleted as moderators do not have the time to edit posts. If you want to make a substantive point, leave the moderation complaints out of it. Please read the comments policy and abide by it, compliance is non-negotiable.
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ubrew12 at 06:39 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
Among Climate Scientists, the agreement about Global Warming is 100%. Most believe the sensitivity is above 2C per doubling of CO2. A very few believe its below 2C. But there are no Climate Scientists, none, who disbelieve the idea altogether. This is a point that the public needs to be made more aware of. Its the reason Climate Deniers say their argument is with CAGW, not AGW, because it allows them to weasel out of their advocacy like a lawyer if you manage to nail them down on specifics.
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Doug Bostrom at 06:34 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
Any fool can look at detailed budget slashing at DEFRA and decode what the Conservatives actually think about climate change. Meanwhile the BBC's been on the wrong foot recently for a number of reasons, are vulnerable and hence need to be careful not to offend the wrong people.
Folks don't rise to the top of management with a tin ear. Tone is set from the top. It's all a matter of listening.
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scaddenp at 05:18 AM on 28 February 2014Humidity is falling
In terms of quantifying feedback, there are well-acknowledged uncertainities in what the value of climate sensitivity is. However, you have asserted " we understand very little of the complex interactions of having different humidities in different layers of the atmosphere and in different regions of the earth" and I cant find backing for this in science that I am aware of.
Geoengineering is discussed as only as method of last resort if humanity doesnt do the obvious step - reduce emissions. Reducing emissions is safe, since it takes us to takes us back to known state. Since you accept the precautionary principle, I assume you are good with that.
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Paul D at 05:11 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
The BBC have got appalling at covering climate change over the last two or three years.
The recent storms have been devastating in the UK and follows up on the year of flooding in 2012.In over two months of bad weather and extreme flooding, the BBC completely failed to look at climate change or ask scientists about the weather. Instead they happily gave the voice of a Somerset MP who has a background of opposing wind farms and blamed the Environment Agency for failing to cope with record rain fall.
I have to say, but don't like to, the changes have come about since the last election.
It may be coincidence, but given that we have a government here that has a Prime Minister that refuses to acknowledge that he has appointed climate change deniers in some key positions, the BBC should be challenging the views of various government officials and politicians that they interview.Plus of course Labour did their bit by fueling the arguements last year about energy bills, which lit the touch paper that launched attacks on renewable energy.
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Composer99 at 03:07 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
MA Rodger: The BBC's response seems especially inapt given what Lawson actually spent his time arguing about (the science).
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EliRabett at 02:50 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
Some hope from NBC News
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MA Rodger at 02:43 AM on 28 February 2014The epidemic of climate science false balance in the media
I put a complaint in to the BBC about Lawson's appearance on Radio 4 because "almost every point he made was woefully wrong."
The reply I got back from the BBC was:-
Whilst there may be a scientific consensus about global warming - that it is happening and largely man-made - there is no similar agreement about what should be done to tackle it; whether money should be spent, for example, on cutting carbon emissions or would be better used adapting our defences to the changing climate. Lord Lawson is not a scientist, but as a former Chancellor of the Exchequer is well qualified to comment on the economic arguments, which are a legitimate area for debate.
We believe there has to be space in the BBC’s coverage where scientific consensus meets reasonable argument about the policy implications of that consensus view. That said we do accept that we could have offered a clearer description of the sceptical position taken by Lord Lawson and the Global Warming Policy Foundation in the introduction. That would have clarified in the audience’s minds the ideological background to the arguments.
It smacks of an excuse of the moment rather than a proper explanation.My own explanation is that the many 'swivel-eyed loons' within the Tory party had been applying a lot of pressure on climate (and may be other things as well) and the BBC caved in.
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Composer99 at 01:37 AM on 28 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #9A
Non-Scientist:
I must disagree strongly with your characterization. There is no hint of what you suggest regarding "buying a Prius".
Here is the abstract of the paper discussed in the Reuters article:
It is widely assumed by policymakers and health professionals that the harmful health impacts of anthropogenic climate change1, 2, 3 will be partially offset by a decline in excess winter deaths (EWDs) in temperate countries, as winters warm4, 5, 6. Recent UK government reports state that winter warming will decrease EWDs7, 8. Over the past few decades, however, the UK and other temperate countries have simultaneously experienced better housing, improved health care, higher incomes and greater awareness of the risks of cold. The link between winter temperatures and EWDs may therefore no longer be as strong as before. Here we report on the key drivers that underlie year-to-year variations in EWDs. We found that the association of year-to-year variation in EWDs with the number of cold days in winter ( <5 °C), evident until the mid 1970s, has disappeared, leaving only the incidence of influenza-like illnesses to explain any of the year-to-year variation in EWDs in the past decade. Although EWDs evidently do exist, winter cold severity no longer predicts the numbers affected. We conclude that no evidence exists that EWDs in England and Wales will fall if winters warm with climate change. These findings have important implications for climate change health adaptation policies. [Emphasis mine.]
In short, excess winter mortality no longer seems related to winter conditions themselves, but to the varying deadliness of seasonal influenza and its relatives - the paper analyses the expectation that excess winter deaths will decrease due to milder winters and finds that there is little room for improvement. (It must be said that this is a single paper, so some corroboration is surely required before it is taken as fact.)
The headline itself is nothing more than a literal one-sentence summary of the findings of the paper as noted in the abstract.
It's also worth noting the risk factors for mortality/morbidity for heat illness:
Age. Infants and children up to age 4, and adults over age 65, are particularly vulnerable because they adjust to heat more slowly than other people.
Certain health conditions. These include heart, lung, or kidney disease, obesity or underweight, high blood pressure, diabetes, mental illness, sickle cell trait, alcoholism, sunburn, and any conditions that cause fever. People with diabetes are at increased risk of emergency room visits, hospitalization, and death from heat-related illness and may be especially likely to underestimate their risk during heat waves.
Medications. These include diuretics, sedatives, tranquilizers, stimulants, some heart and blood pressure medications, and medications for psychiatric conditions.
[Emphasis original.]
Increased risk of heat illness is obviously a real risk of climate change, whatever your feelings about who dies from it. All this article does is show that we can't look to decreased winter mortality/morbidity to balance it off.
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John Hartz at 01:21 AM on 28 February 2014Humidity is falling
dwm:
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Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive or off-topic posts. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site. Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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Tom Dayton at 00:41 AM on 28 February 2014Humidity is falling
dwm, for data you've got the references in the original post (in particular, the AIRS instrument on AQUA), plus two people pointing you to AR5, plus an early comment pointing to Science of Doom (which now has a Part 7). It is necessary for you to click and read, and (horrors!) sometimes then click and read those sources' cited sources.
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Non-Scientist at 00:38 AM on 28 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #9A
No edit function: For clarity, my last sentence would be better as "...mocked as insinuating..."
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Non-Scientist at 00:36 AM on 28 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #9A
"Global warming won't cut winter deaths as hoped"
This topic, and the related topic of summer heat induced death are a tad misleading. The death rate of all causes is 100%: you are going to die at some point, and today there will be a medical diagnosis other than old age.
But nearly all deaths due to summer heat are natural deaths of old age, and that is a quiet passing during one's sleep, rather than while hooked up to machines, after a painful fall, or due to a hospital aquired infection.
It's best not to distract from the real risks of climate change with headlines which will be mocked as meaning "Millyuns will die in the streets if you don't buy a Prius".
Moderator Response:[JH] Newspaper headlines are purposely written to grab the reader's attention and entice him/jher to read the article.
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Michael Whittemore at 22:49 PM on 27 February 2014Global warming continues, but volcanoes are slowing down the warming of the atmosphere
Its silly to imply climate models are getting it wrong when they are not designed to factor in certain aspects of the climate. Climate models should be adjusted each year to factor in increased ocean heat, volcano eruptions and what ever else is not accounted for.
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Michael Whittemore at 22:41 PM on 27 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #9A
Its great to hear that the IPCC will now start to focus on ways to reduce the impacts of climate change. Its getting a little pointless when the only arguments we are hearing are conspiracy theory's.
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MA Rodger at 20:50 PM on 27 February 2014Global warming continues, but volcanoes are slowing down the warming of the atmosphere
chriskoz @11.
Klimont et al (2013) shows sulphate emissions to 2011. There is a balance between rising emissions in the developing world and falling emissions in the developed world. This also results in emissions increasing at lower latitudes.
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chriskoz at 20:19 PM on 27 February 2014Global warming continues, but volcanoes are slowing down the warming of the atmosphere
tstreet@9,
Human aerosol emissions can be acounted for quite reasonably in the past 100y or so, as seen on this graph from tamino:
The emissions clearly peaked in 70s, after they started cleaning what you've experienced in Denver, and what other experienced throughout the whole NAmerica & Europe.
I don't see any jump on this graph as the result of recent boom in China. The graph ends at 2000 however, and would love to see latest update on this account. But so far, I don't see anything what you describe as "what's going on in China" on this graph.
So my conclusion: "if China cuts its emissions", there will be no "ugly spike in [global] warming", because the drop in aerosol emissions should not be very signifficant. Perhaps the local temps would be affected. But the global effect might well be diluted. Often, what looks grandiose & very scary (especially when seen through sensationalism of the media) may not be actually a big deal when seen through the actual data analysis.
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MA Rodger at 20:06 PM on 27 February 2014CO2 lags temperature
I asked @433 "Anybody any ideas?" It appears from the comments @ 434, 435 & 436 that dwm's answer to this question is "No. I have no idea whatever."
This still may not be the definitive answer to my question (dwm has not shown here much skill in providing such answers, even when well positioned to do so), so if anybody else has any ideas, I would be happy to learn of them.
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ubrew12 at 19:44 PM on 27 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #9A
"Debunking Charles Krauthammer’s climate lies" is missing a link, which is here
I hope everyone reads Krauthammer's piece as its a classic 'doubt is our product' piece of misinformation. If 'doubt is your product' then you aren't served by shedding a light on the problem, in this case, of future climate. Rather you are served by spray-painting out the light on the problem that's being shed by others. Hence its extremely important for Krauthammer to claim that he doesn't know whether Global Warming is real or not, because it excuses his lack of prediction of future climate. No light from him. Despite this ambivalence, he is somehow 'certain' that the climate scientists don't know what they're talking about- no light from them. This leaves us all stumbling around in the dark, supporting the fossil status quo, which is his intention. Its also why I call such people graffiti taggers. No constructing a bridge to the future for them. Just spray-painting over the bridge constructed by others to make it look unpalatable.
Moderator Response:[JH] Thank you for bringing this omission to our attention. The link has been inserted.
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dwm at 16:59 PM on 27 February 2014Humidity is falling
scaddenp, I pointed out that we are all still waiting for a good source (of a data record), and I asked for a good source if you have one, so why are you asking me for my source?
This is getting off topic, but since you asked.. I don't disagree with the precautionary principle. The problem lies with how you define precautionary. For instance, I am alarmed by those who advocate for pro-active measures such as geoengineering based on climate science which is, in my opinion, still in its infant stage.
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scaddenp at 13:18 PM on 27 February 2014Humidity is falling
dwm - are you seriously suggesting that Clausius-Clapeyron relation doesnt hold in the atmosphere? Furthermore water vapour are constrained by OLR measurement. What is your estimate (I would love to know your source...) that the error range in the humidity estimates invalidate model estimates.
Next question, suppose for whatever reason you decide that you dont trust models are the best predictors of future climate, and yet the physics of AGW is not in doubt. What predictor of future climate do you suggest policy makers use which you think has better skill than climate models?
Uncertainity cuts both ways. Suppose the errors are such that warming ends up much faster than predicted? The precautionary principle would seem to apply.
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paulhtremblay at 12:51 PM on 27 February 2014Nazis, shoddy science, and the climate contrarian credibility gap
Bob @49. Thanks, got it now. I pretty much understood you post, but your the visual from your link really made me see.
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dwm at 12:50 PM on 27 February 2014Humidity is falling
JH and others: as I said, we are years away from having reliable humidity data for the various levels of the atmosphere, and moreover, as humidity is not uniform, we understand very little of the complex interactions of having different humidities in different layers of the atmosphere and in different regions of the earth. The facts that we don't have the data, and that we don't understand the complexities of the interactions, don't allow you to indulge in the weak defense of "It's the old "if you don't know everything, you know nothing" gambit."
If that is not the case, please tell me where I can find the data showing humidity levels of all layers of the earth's atmosphere for the different regions, tropic, sub-tropic..., for the past century, or heck, how about just the past 20 years.
Without a very good idea of what humidity leves have been, climate models are left in the "best guess" scenario, and since water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas, their reliability is very much in question.
Moderator Response:[JH] Your personal opinions matter little on this website. If you cannot document your assertions, merely repeating them constitutes sloganeering- which is prohibited by the SkS Comment Policy.
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scaddenp at 11:05 AM on 27 February 2014Global warming continues, but volcanoes are slowing down the warming of the atmosphere
You can get the historical radiative forcing from aerosols from the IPCC reports
Aerosols have improved since 1990 but way worse than 1950. What matters from climate point of view is the net forcings. Aerosols have got worse but dont cool because overwhelmed by increased CO2.
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tstreet at 08:18 AM on 27 February 2014Global warming continues, but volcanoes are slowing down the warming of the atmosphere
Someone else can probably be more quantitative, but I would think that the amount of heat reflecting emssions put out by China would be at least what the U.S. and others were emitting during the period when we had a significant cooling effect. I do remember that pollution used to be a lot worse in places I have lived like Denver, but it doesn't seem close to comparing with what is going on in China.
However, I would be interested also in the actual quantitative impact on the results of the models and if the models try to take into account the cooling effect of ongoing heat refleting emissions.
If/when China cuts its emissions to that approaching western standards, it seems like this is going to cause an ugly spike in warming.
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Chris8616 at 07:41 AM on 27 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
Not sure how you come up with the destinations, but the first thing a hacker would do is to use a proxy(even with Tor), preferabily from a country not assocciated with his own.
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Doug Bostrom at 07:39 AM on 27 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
For all the wind emitted in other places about this topic, one would think the windy would blow here at least a little bit, at what is surely the true nexus of all the hot breezes.
It's true that it's more pleasant to agree than than disagree; what better than to flock with other agreeable, agreeing folk?
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Rob Honeycutt at 06:08 AM on 27 February 2014Nazis, shoddy science, and the climate contrarian credibility gap
funglestrumpet... Just last night I went to a lecture on climate change where one of the speakers was a lead author for both the IPCC AR4 and AR5 reports.
This was someone who is very deeply involved in the science. He's a leading climate modeler and probably has as thorough an understanding of both the scientific side of this issue as he does the political side.
He made a very important point saying that, you have to remember, just a few months ago we had every member nation sign off on a statement saying that there is a >95% likelihood that humans have been causing warming and that the potential impacts are serious. This includes nations like the US with our fracking, Australia and China with vast deposits of coal, other oil producing nations, and more.
All these member nations have agreed that this is a serious problem that cannot be denied.
He made very clear that the BAU emissions scenarios are very severe. But he also said he is an optimist. He believes we can fix the problem. He did add that the time is now. We can no longer wait. Actions have to happen now, and primarily it sounded like the most favored instrument is going to be a carbon tax.
Yes, there has been irrational delay. Yes, we should have started long ago. Yes, there are still contrarian scientists who's opinions are being elevated far above where they actually should be.
I would suggest this is part of the process. You have to remember, we're also telling some of the largest corporations on the planet that we're going to have to pretty much stop using their products as they currently produce and sell them. These are products that are largely responsible for the prosperity of the past 150 years.
The transition is not going to be easy because these companies do not want to go gentle into that good night (apologies to Dylan Thomas).
I'm with Tom and chriskos here. This is not a time for rage. It is a time for a steady hand on the tiller. Stay true to the published science. Communicate it as clearly and as often as you possibly can.
We're going to show Lovelock that he's wrong.
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Dikran Marsupial at 05:42 AM on 27 February 2014Nazis, shoddy science, and the climate contrarian credibility gap
funglestrumpet, I'll make one last comment on this topic. The reason that "fighting dirty" works for skeptics is because none of us actually want to forgo the benefits of fossil fuel use. As a result, those of us more susceptible to the cognitive biases that we all have will easily accept bogus arguments if it means they don't need to do anything. However those very same cognitive biases means that people are often very good at spotting bogus arguments that argue they should do something that they don't already want to do, and it will make them dig in their heels and ignore anything else you might want to say. So, while your hyperbolic partisan nonsense may go down well with some "warmists" that are impatient at the very slow rate of progress being made, it will go down like a lead balloon with the people whos minds you need to change if progress is going to be any faster. If you want to seek attention, fighting dirty is a good approach, if you actually want something done about climate change, it is a very bad approach.
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funglestrumpet at 05:31 AM on 27 February 2014Nazis, shoddy science, and the climate contrarian credibility gap
Tom Curtis @ 53
You hit on one of the battlegrounds of the whole issue: time. If only we had enough of it, we could afford the luxury of sorting out, or at least trying to sort out, such anomalies that you correctly identify. Of course, if Professor Lovelock is correct in his new book, the time battle has already been lost. What a pity we have all frittered away so much of while relying on fair words and promises that have proved to be empty.
As for the general topic, I think we have reached an impasse.
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funglestrumpet at 05:25 AM on 27 February 2014Nazis, shoddy science, and the climate contrarian credibility gap
chriskoz @ 52
I offer my apologies for the incorrect spelling of your name. My only excuse, and a weak one at that, is that I wrote the post in a hurry. Certainly no insult was intended.
As for the general topic, I think we have reached an impasse.
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william5331 at 05:15 AM on 27 February 2014Global warming continues, but volcanoes are slowing down the warming of the atmosphere
Perhaps someone knows the answer to this one. It came about because of the headline in this morning's Press. China chokes on smog: crops die. How does the quantity of particulate air pollution from China compare with the amount put out by volcanoes. There was a theory that the lack of warming when America was putting out mega amounts of pollution was due to this pollution. She cleaned up her act and atmospheric warming continued. What would the effect be of China cleaning up her act.
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Rob Honeycutt at 03:21 AM on 27 February 2014A Hack by Any Other Name — Part 2
It all has that feeling you get when someone has broken into your home. It's that sense of being violated. You don't know who they were but you know they were, at one point, there in your livingroom unhooking the cords to your kids' Wii they got for Xmas. They were in your office going through your desk drawer. They were in your bedroom going through your wife's family heirlooms.
It really is a sick feeling. And it's just phenominal to me that there are people out there with such low standards of morality as to believe it's okay to do this.
I also find it sickening that other bloggers scoff at the whole thing (no, I'm not going to reward them with links to their sites) when they, too, should be expressing a sense of indignation.
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