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Russ R. at 14:35 PM on 18 February 2014MP Graham Stringer and CNN Crossfire are wrong about the 97% consensus on human-caused global warming
KR @29,
I had completely forgotten that we had previously debated this very issue at WUWT. Thank you for linking to it and refreshing my memory. Nice to see that some people can still be civil even when they disagree.
Anyway, having seen the less-than-polite response you got over there, I don't blame you for giving up in frustration. It's not easy trying to respond to a barrage of simultaneous attacks, as I'm finding out here.
If you disagree with the consensus measured by Cook et al, support your argument on the appropriate threads.
I don't disagree with it. At all. What I disagree with is misrepresenting that "97% Consensus", extending it to cover areas that it never addressed.
If you object to a public understanding of that scientific consensus, I would ask why you feel that policy decisions should be made under perceptual errors on expert opinion.
Far from objecting to a public understanding of the consensus, I feel that public dialogue should accurately reflect exactly what the study acutally found.
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Russ R. at 14:05 PM on 18 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
michael sweet,
This is getting a bit ridiculous. You accused me of starting an argument with a false premise:
"It is completely false to suggest that the current "cold" weather in the US East is unusual. All the reports say something like "coldest since 1996" or "coldest since 1985". Please provide evidence that the recent weather is unusual compared to the weather in 1930, or stop making this completely false argument."
I gave you a link to NOAA (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records) showing that there were thousands of daily cold records , and 30 all-time cold records set in the USA so far this year.
But now you want to argue something different:
"The daily records are often for shorter length records. The all time records are the real hard ones and, as Tom pointed out, there are 4.5 times as many hot all time records during your "record cold" period than cold records."
That wasn't the premise of my argument. I fully agree that there have been more warm records than cold records set all over the map in recent years. No argument here. Continuing to argue this line is a waste of your time and effort.
You complained that my mere mention of cold records (not their relative number but their very existence) was a "comletely false argument" and "sloganeering". I think the data show otherwise.
Moderator Response:[DB] You continue to prosecute a specious point. Michael has provided the stronger case. As you still do not concede the point, it is time to let it go.
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Russ R. at 13:38 PM on 18 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Tom Curtis,
You make two very good comments @26 & @28. I once again must commend your analysis. I'll take them one at a time.
First, on the subject of "what would falsify your beliefs", you write:
"In short, compelling evidence that:
- Green house gas concentrations in the atmosphere will not grow beyond current levels even with BAU; or
- Expected GMST increase with increased GHG concentrations is << 2 C by 2100; or
- Expected harm from GMST increases of 2 C or more are limited; or
- Costs of adaption sufficient to largely limit harm are less than the costs of mitigation; or
- Costs of mitigation sufficient to largely limit harm are likely to cause more harm than they mitigate,
I agree with you. The complexity makes it difficult to compile a list that is simultaneously concise and comprehensive, but you've done a nice job of sythesizing a number of critical factors. I'm glad to see that you've acknowledged these are "or" conditions, as well as recognizing that lower than expected risks across multiple factors in combination could result in no cause for alarm.
"please list your exhaustive criteria of all circumstances that would falsify your belief that global warming is not a problem requiring an urgent policy response."
My list a bit different from yours, mostly because it starts from a different default belief. You'll note it's similar to the 12 questions I posted previously, which you mentioned @28. I agree with your assessment that the criteria are not independent logic gates, rather they're a series of probabilty functions that must be assessed in combination. You've expressed this concept very well.
I've collapsed the original 12 questions into a slightly shorter list of 9 criteria. Of note is the "and" between each one. (However, #9 is more "desirable" than "critical".)
For the record, I would believe that global warming is a problem requiring an urgent policy reponse if presented with compelling evidence that:
- In a BAU scenario GHG emissions will continue at a rate faster than can be absorbed by the biosphere, resulting in significantly and unsustainably rising concentrations, and,
- The expected increase in atmospheric GHGs will result in a significant amount of warming, and,
- The warming and related changes (sea level rise, etc.) will occur over time periods that are meaningful relative to human lifespans, and
- The changes will meaningfully impact ecosystems, economies, societies and individuals (considering both positive and negative impacts), and
- The net cost / benefit of the expected changes will be negative, and
- There exist policy actions are likely to be timely, effective, politically feasible, economically viable, and
- The economic costs (along with unintended side-effects) are quantifiable with reasonably certainty, and
- The probability-adjusted future benefits of policy action (discounted to present value), exceed the real direct and indirect costs of taking action, and
- Ideally, the distribution of costs and benefits will be equitable and just (i.e. the benefits will accrue to everyone more or less equally, while the poor will be expected to bear proportionately less of the costs).
To hopefully avoid unnecessary arguments (as I should have done previously) let me spell out my own positions on each one.
- The evidence is abundant and highly compelling.
- The evidence is mixed. Computer models show high sensitivity, whereas estimates derived from observations are more borderline. (e.g. Otto et al (2013) best estimate of ECS was 2.0).
- The evidence is compelling.
- The evidence is compelling.
- The evidence is conditional. (Modest amounts of warming would be beneficial, greater warming would likely be negative. http://www.skepticalscience.com/copenhagen-consensus-center-climate-change-costly.html)
- The evidence is mixed. (Depends on the proposed policy action)
- The evidence is weak. (It is an exceedingly rare policy that does not in practice greatly exceed its expected costs or results in signifcant unintended side effects).
- The evidence is weak. (We could argue all day over the Stern Report).
- The evidence is mixed. (Again, depending on what policy is being discussed).
Only the first five criteria are scientific... the remainder are political and economic questions. So, of the five scientific criteria, I find compelling evidence for three, and mixed or conditional evidence for two (climate sensitivity and net cost/benefit of warming.)
Of the four political and economic questions (which I acknowledge, are not the focus of this site), I find very little compelling evidence, and accordingly, am only supportive of a small number of climate policies where the benefits would so overwhelmingly outweigh the costs, even if the scientific evidence were less compelling (e.g. ending subsidies for energy, taxing carbon in lieu of income).
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michael sweet at 13:00 PM on 18 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Russ,
Perhaps you have never looked at the 2012 data, you appear to have mostly read skeptic blogs. This March 2012 report documents 15,272 warm records broken (in March alone), three times as many records as you cite for 6 weeks. There were 21 instances where the low temperature was warmer than the previous highest temperature ever measured!!! Imagine such extreme heat that the low temperature was hotter than the previous highest high!! 25 states had their all time hottest March ever recorded. Every state in the nation recorded a warm daily record. No states had an all time record cold month in the recent "record cold", there was one state that was 4th coldest. In the recent "record cold" California recorded its third warmest January ever. 25 states had their warmest Jan-Mar on record in 2012 as compared to one state that was fifth coldest in the recent "record cold".
When I talk about record heat I mean record heat!! You must withdraw your comments suggesting that denier claims about "record cold" equal scientists claims about record heat. There has not been a comparable cold event anywhere on the globe for at least decades. I can name a half dozen comparable hot episodes.
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michael sweet at 12:29 PM on 18 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Russ,
Tom is on target again. The daily records are often for shorter length records. The all time records are the real hard ones and, as Tom pointed out, there are 4.5 times as many hot all time records during your "record cold" period than cold records. Ditto the monthly records.
I notice that you have not even attempted to match the 2012 CONUS all time record high temperatures. During that year there were thousands more hot daily records than cold records.
So you match my Royal Flush with a pair of tens. Big deal!!! Find some data that compares to the all time hot US record, the all time hot Australian record or the all time record floods that you first mentioned.
I could name a half dozen additional comparable hot records off the top of my head. You cannot find a single month, anywhere in the globe that is comparable. "Cold records" give me a break!!
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Tom Curtis at 11:40 AM on 18 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
I should probably also have noted the monthly records:
Year to date: 137 warm records, 133 cool records.
And that purportedly in a very cold winter for the US.
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Tom Curtis at 11:33 AM on 18 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Russ R @36, why are you cherry picking just a single nation, over a period thought to be cold without comparing it to equivalent recent warm periods?
Indeed, why are you ignoring the all time records list from the page you link to:
Last 365 days: 187 warm records, 44 cold records.
And that on a purportedly cool year.
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Russ R. at 11:15 AM on 18 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
michael sweet,
"You continue to make the false claim that there was record cold recently. I provided data (NCDC website here) showing that your original claim of record cold in the USA was, in fact, only a normal cold front from 50 years ago. Deniers think it is cold since they do not look at the data. You have not provided data to support your claim."
Here's NOAA's data on record setting weather, both hot and cold: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/recordsYTD in the USA, approximatly 2.8x as many record low temperatures as record high temperatures (as I write this: 4790 low max and 3569 low min records vs. 1607 high max and 1349 high min records).
Is that sufficient data for you?
Moderator Response:[JH] Lose the snark!
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jsmith at 09:27 AM on 18 February 2014Hockey stick is broken
The link to the Oerlemans paper is dead; consider replacing it with this: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/308/5722/675.full
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Chemware at 08:52 AM on 18 February 2014Customizable Global Warming Widget Metrics
A request - would it be possible to add a "Tsar Bomba" metric - that being the most destructive thermonuclear device ever built by man:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba
It also gives an altternative to the Hiroshima metric that won't overflow in a few years time. -
michael sweet at 07:44 AM on 18 February 2014Unprecedented trade wind strength is shifting global warming to the oceans, but for how much longer?
Klapper,
Your post was deleted for sloganeering (I cannot delete posts, I am not a moderator).
In your post you discussed looking at data, but you did not show any results. You reached a conclusion that was unsupported, since no data was shown. Reaching unsupported conclusions several times in a row is sloganeering. My impression of your posts is that you are long on conclusions and short on data that supports your claims. In a scientific discussion you must support your claims with data, preferrably peer reviewed data. People used to posting on other blogs sometimes have difficulty with the concept of referring to peer reivewed data, since the style there is everyone just says what they think without any data. You might want to consider asking more questions and see what type of response you get.
It is much better to cite a peer reviewed publication to support your position than to make a calculation. Obviously a calculation you (or I) do is not peer reviewed. If a peer reviewed publication does not support your claim you might want to consider if it is reasonable. Can you really do these calculations when you cannot deal with gridded data (I doubt it)? Why should I believe your calculation?
While HK had calculations in his post, he showed the data and had 4 links to other graphs. His conclusions were pretty basic. (I read his conclusion as the problem is complicated. It requires detailed [peer reviewed] calculations to reach a conclusion).
moderator: delete my post if it is inaccurate.
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gws at 06:00 AM on 18 February 2014How we know the greenhouse effect isn't saturated
mgardner,
on your 1): see the post by Glenn @24: convection is contributing to heat transport from the surface to the atmosphere, but not the majority; that is still IR radiation
on your 3): Yes, the insulation analogy works, aka more CO2 in a layer lets you make that layer thinner for the same opacity (of IR from the layer below reaching the layer above). More CO2 means such opagueness at a certain wavelength is achieved earlier, but "moving up" is not meant literally except in the sense that the whole tropospheric column has to warm, and thus any layer of a given tropospheric temperature will, on average, be at a higher elevation under an increased greenhouse gas concentration
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jsmith at 05:45 AM on 18 February 2014CERN CLOUD experiment proved cosmic rays are causing global warming
I was looking for this argument on the "Climate myths sorted by taxonomy" page, but I could not find it. Is there a reason it isn't on that page, and if not, would someone who can consider adding it there? I imagine it should be added under "It's cosmic rays".
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Klapper at 05:17 AM on 18 February 2014Unprecedented trade wind strength is shifting global warming to the oceans, but for how much longer?
@HK #73:
I agreed in theory with HK's post, but posted a rebuttal on how well it fits with numerical analysis of the NODC data. For some reason this didn't pass the censors so perhaps the moderator could explain why.
Thankyou.
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10 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change
cynicalanddisgusted - Anthropogenic greenhouse gas trapping of IR adds about 100x the forcing to the climate as all of human energy use; see the waste heat discussions. Any move to a non-carbon based energy utilization will reduce global warming, including nuclear and solar.
It's important to actually look at the numbers.
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cynicalanddisgusted at 03:31 AM on 18 February 201410 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change
Interestingly, some of the alternate energy sources proposed as soltuions will not work.
Nuclear - speeds the decay of nuclear materials which produces more heat now than the natural decay of these same materials in the earth.
Solar - If the CO2 traps radiation trying to exit the earth after reflection, than trapping it here at the surface just accomplishes the same thing in a more efficient manner.
Nuclear and Solar may be better than coal/oil, but will still cause global warming. Wind and Hydro capture energy that is already here and thus do not warm the planet.
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michael sweet at 02:37 AM on 18 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
This comic perfectly illustrates skeptics claims about recent "record" cold. Perhaps Russ should look up recent temperatures in Atlanta and check if they were unusual from 1900-1950. It is likely that the climate has changed and skeptics only remember the past 10-20 years when it has been much hotter from AGW. The recent "record cold" is only record compared to the heat from AGW. Scientists look at the entire record.
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DSL at 00:16 AM on 18 February 2014CO2 lags temperature
dwm, the oceans do not give up their stored energy immediately. As Milankovitch cycling moves toward cooling, the surface layers may cool and increasingly absorb CO2, but warmer (relative to glacial conditions) water will continue to upwell for quite a while and prevent the kind of carbon uptake one might naively expect to see with a significant drop in insolation.
The "runaway catastrophic disaster scenario" hasn't happened before--and is not happening now (and no one but builders of straw men is saying so)--because conditions are not conducive. Yes, there are limiting factors. The logarithmically decreasing ability of additional GHGs to increase global energy storage is one limiting factor. The slightly spheroid shape of the planet we're on is another. Continental positioning is another. The general circulation regime at any given time is another. There's more here.
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howardlee at 23:43 PM on 17 February 2014The Oceans Warmed up Sharply in 2013: We're Going to Need a Bigger Graph
Concerned citizen 60025- we are not still emerging from the last ice age.
The ice ages were contolled by orbital wobbles - Milankovitch cycles. They happen at a very well understood cyclicity. They predict we should be heading into the next ice age, which should cut-in by the year 3,500 AD.
Temperature records up to the industrial age show exactly that pattern - a slow decline since about 6,000 years ago. But all that cooling has been reversed in the last century or two. We have emphatically departed from the Milankovitch cycle of the ice ages and reversed 6000 years of cooling in a time period far, far shorter than the wavelength of orbital wobbles.
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mgardner at 23:03 PM on 17 February 2014How we know the greenhouse effect isn't saturated
This is for everyone who has answered (mostly) in response to potvinj. Two comments and a question.
1) If everyone is in agreement that convection is the first-order mechanism for transferring energy from the surface to the upper level of the troposphere, from where it radiates to space, could you reference or produce a graphic that illustrates this? The images here and elsewhere seem to support the radiation-from-the-surface-up model.
2) For people in the colder parts of the world, I think there's quite a simple analogy that would be very accessible. Most of us are aware that the warm air in their houses rises to the ceiling, and that better attic insulation is one of the easiest ways to increase the temperature. We also have been exposed to the fact that different materials have different values of insulation.
I would explain the CO2 effect in these terms: A higher percent of CO2 in the upper layers of the troposphere is like replacing vermiculite (found in much older homes) with fiberglas; the R-value is greater, so your house is warmer for the same heat input. (I speak, grateful today, from the experience of having done it.)
3. Here I must admit my own confusion. Following the analogy, if I have better insulation, I need a thinner layer of it to achieve the same effect. So, as I add CO2, the thickness of a layer of atmosphere required to achieve opacity should decrease. Perhaps someone could, again, offer a diagram that give some kind of perspective or scale on those upper levels of the troposphere that are subject to the effect (not already opaque.) I think I understand the basic physics, but the expression "moving up" applied to either radiating or translucent layers is causing me trouble.
(Note: By opaque I mean absorbing and re-radiating all photons available.)
Thanks.
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michael sweet at 21:11 PM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Russ:
You continue to make the false claim that there was record cold recently. I provided data (NCDC website here) showing that your original claim of record cold in the USA was, in fact, only a normal cold front from 50 years ago. Deniers think it is cold since they do not look at the data. You have not provided data to support your claim. Your false equivalence where your say both sides refer to weather has been shown to be a rhetorical device. It is record hot, it is not record cold. Provide data showing a month of cold in the last five years anywhere in the world that was 1F colder than the previous record for that area. I provided data showing the USA in 2012 was 1F hotter than any previous record for the entire year.
When scientists say it is record hot it is record hot. When deniers say it is record cold, it is normal for 50 years ago. That is not an equivalent argument.
It is sloganeering to continue to post claims that have been shown to be false. Everyone else reading your posts sees that you continue to post claims you have not supported.
Moderator Response:[JH] As you correctly point out, Russ R is now skating on the thin ice of sloganeering and excessive repitition - both of which are prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy. Future posts by Russ R that violate either of these prohibitions will be summarily deleted.
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dwm at 20:18 PM on 17 February 2014CO2 lags temperature
So...exactly why on all of these previous cycles where according to the author the sun precipitated a feedback loop causing the ocean to release carbon which then increased the warming so that the ocean then released more carbon...did temperatures begin to drop just as the carbon level was peaking? As documented here, the level of carbon lagged, so just as it was reaching record highs on each occasion temperatures began to drop of their own accord (because of some set of not yet understood mechanisms), but there is no reason given by the author as to why that was the case.
Why has the runaway catestropic disaster scenario never unfolded before, where the rise in carbon would trigger warming to the degree that permafrost melts, adding methane, more warming, more carbon release from the oceans, ecetera, until the earth boils itself into a dry wasteland...?
Something, or likely a whole host of things, have been obviously keeping it in check. -
Marshall119 at 19:46 PM on 17 February 2014MP Graham Stringer and CNN Crossfire are wrong about the 97% consensus on human-caused global warming
Russ R. - In my reading of all the comments on the WUWT post you cited, the author did address the ECS vs. TCR issue. Are you saying it wasn't adequately resolved?
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Dikran Marsupial at 19:14 PM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
@Leto, that is pretty much why I included the part about the statistical power of the test - which is the frequentist answer to that issue (I prefer the Bayesian one myself).
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Dikran Marsupial at 19:11 PM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Matzdj wrote: "Russ R makes a critical point. I would phrase it differently. If you have a theory that is not falsifiable, you only have a belief."
I explained how it is falsifiable here, please lets not have this degenerate into philosophy of science 101, this one is a real canard that has been discussed here many times before.
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Dikran Marsupial at 19:07 PM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Russ R wrote: "I'm sorry you feel that I'm not giving you adequate attention."
Again, this is disingenuous,I did not say that Russ didn't respond to my question, I pointed out that he responded evasively, making no attempt to answer it (by making a counter-attack that Cook et al. didn't address his list of 12 point - straight out of "rhetoric for beginners")."I gave a list of 12 question that were specifically not covered in the "97% Consensus" from Cook et al. (2013), but were all part a critical chain of reasoning to argue for policy action. I wasn't making an argument for or against any of the 12 questions."
Again, that is disingenuous as you wrote:
"According to your definitions, I'm part of the "97% Consensus", but I still do not support the vast majority of proposed "climate policies" because I have numerous doubts relating to the dozen issues I've listed above."
which shows very clearly that you were making an argument about these 12 points, namely that there were numerous doubts about all of them. The fact that you didn't answer the question, but engaged in evasion instead shows that this was actually mere rhetoric and had no evidential basis
"Your desire to debate each of the 12 questions was not germaine to the point I was making. Sorry."
I didn't express any desire to debate each of the 12 questions, just the first one, to see whether your list of points actually had some evidential basis, or whether it was just a gish gallop designed to allow you to invoke the uncertainty monster to argue against any action on climate change. I guess that question has been answered now - it was just a gish gallop.
I suggest you read this article by Sir Paul Nurse, which explains why the sort of rhetorical arguments used in the polictical debate are an extremely poor approach to discussing science (as you have demonstrated here by frittering away your credibility by evasive rhetoric).
If the politico-economic arguments against action on climate change are so strong, it is hard to understand why those who hold that position seem so keen to substitute bogus scientific arguments in their place (e.g. the list of 12 issues, many of which have no substantial scientific doubt associated with them, e.g. item 2).
DNFTT, sorry Russ, it was your choice to behave that way.
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Matzdj10109 at 18:57 PM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Russ R makes a critical point. I would phrase it differently. If you have a theory that is not falsifiable, you only have a belief. If everything that can happen - good/bad, up/down, wet/dry, hot/cold etc., proves your point, then you have a religious belief. Unfortunately, both sides of this argument have become both political and religious beliefs.
Yes the talking heads on conservative news shows and people who discuss daily weather affects as proof of any climate effect should be ignored because they are not very knowledgeable. However, professional scientists that propose alternatives and who show data that don't match your theory cannot be discarded. Disprove them if you can, but you cannot scientifically ignore them.
No one who understands science will disagree that adding CO2, to a point, will increase heat buildup on the earth, but I think everyone agrees that the direct effect is small. Some even believe that once appropriate frequency ranges have absorbed all they can, that more CO2 will not cause additional warming.
The real issue is that the models that predict positive feedback result in catastrophic warming.
The problem with using models to predict anything, is that when the model is not accurate, all you need to do is add another parameter and you are all good for the next few years until the data deviates again and your model needs further tweaking. the model is always described as "better now, than before".
This kind do "science" is not much better than that from the talking heads of FOX News.
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Moderator Response:[JH] If an alternative to manamde climate change is disproved, it can be ignored by scientists as they proceed forward. It does not have to be disproved ad naseum.
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Leto at 18:20 PM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Russ @27,
You would have a very good point if the a priori evidence for global warming versus global cooling were balanced. As it stands, though, you give every appearance of being a disingenuous troll, who made no attempt to understand the asymmetrical burden of proof I pointed out. I suggest you read up on Bayesian probability.
Try this: a hot spell is a reminder of where we are going; a cold spell is a reminder of what we will see less of; neither by itself is proof of anything.
I find it amusing that the very same people who declare climate to be a chaotic multidimensional morass, an epistemological swamp in which nothing can be known until everything is known, are just as happy to reduce discussions to a hot-vs-cold one-dimensional kiddy problem when it suits them - as you do when you talk of mirror images. There's your double standard.
I for one won't respond to you again unless you show some willingness to engage in true dialogue. And I say that despite the fact it is clearly a common troll tactic to project reasonableness, absorb nothing, and then sigh when the other side gives up.
If any lurking true skeptics are genuinely interested in the point Russ raises, pipe up and we can discuss it sensibily. Otherwise, I will stick with the policy of DNFTT.
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One Planet Only Forever at 15:57 PM on 17 February 2014Discussing global warming: why does this have to be so hard?
afjje1@50,
I believe it is essential to recognise the influence and power of greed. Though climate science is just the science, communicating it cannot avoid the way the conclusions contradict what greedy people want to believe and want to get away with.
Greed is a choice. And the socioeconomic systems encourage people to develop a greedy attitude. The greedy ones have competitive advantages in almost all the systems. But even in systems where greed struggles it can be challenging to of get people to care about future generations when personal sacrifice by giving up an easy opportunity is required for the benefit of future generations.
The original intent of Kyoto was clear. The most fortunate who had benefited the most from their predecessors burning fossil fuels needed to show global leadership in giving up that easy but damaging and ultimately unsustainable activity. The intent was to motivate the most fortunate to do something that their socioeconomic systems were clearly failing to motivate them to do and to genuinely assist the least fortunate develop to sustainable better lives.
But Kyoto was easily made unpopular by people who pointed out that it required those who wanted to benefit from burning fossil fuels to be ‘limited’.
And the climate science is clearly tied to that unpopular idea.
So I would suggest that the target audience should be those who may have been tempted to be greedy, but who can also be tempted to be considerate about developing a better future for all, leaving this world better than they found it. The way to reach those people could be to make a clear example of every invalid or weak claim attempted by the truly greedy. In addition to clearly pointing out why the claim is wrong, remind the audience of the bigger irrefutable point that ‘everyone cannot benefit from burning fossil fuels now and especially not into the future, and the activity is damaging to others, particularly those in the future, and not just because of excess CO2’. Then ask the audience to explain why the person made the clearly questionable claim. Those who are tempted to be considerate should shift out of their greedy mode.
I recognise that my suggestion is polarizing. However, I believe that polarizing the deeply greedy and the deeply intolerant against everyone else is required. I add the intolerant because there is clear evidence that the greedy and intolerant are willing to work together to collectively improve their changes of getting away with their unacceptable preferences. The greedy and the intolerant cannot be allowed to continue to succeed. That can only be achieved by pointing out who they are and hoping that the clear majority of the population will not be too tempted to like them or be like them.
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:22 PM on 17 February 2014Discussing global warming: why does this have to be so hard?
Rob Nicholls @ 48,
I appreciate the clarification, and how difficult it is to be brief yet clear when presenting opinions regarding an issue as broad and important as this one.
My method for evaluating the 'genuine concern' of a person questioning the science is whether they wish to improve the science, or if they try to get away with any of the deceptive things that a person trying to deliberately deceive would pursue. I pay particular attention to the assertions regarding the validity of the need for the most fortunate to rapidly develop away from burning fossil fuels. Often the defense of the continuation or expansion of those unsustainable and damaging activities is behind, or even clearly tied to, attempts to discredit selective points of the climate science or the scientists themselves. And they will focus on a single disputed point without ever acknowledging that the point in dispute by itself does not meaningfully alter the best understanding of the higher level issue based on the total scope of the issue and all the available information.
By that measure very few contrarians seem to genuinely wish to improve the science.
However, I will admit that many people appear to be immersed in the greed that our socioeconomic system tempts them to embrace. And those people could be willfully blind and tempted to 'genuinely fall for' the deliberate deceptions created by more knowledgeable people who deliberately ignore information they are aware of and carefully craft misleading claims. It is sad that a brilliant mind would be tempted by greed, but I believe the ‘debates’ through the past 20 years prove how easily it can happen.
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Tom Curtis at 13:57 PM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Russ, elsewhere you write:
"The "97% consensus" that's you're reporting has nothing to say regarding any of the following, each of which is an essential link in the chain of reasoning that corrective policy action must be taken.
How much will GHG emissions rise in a "business as usual" scenario?
How much will atmospheric concentrations rise for that level of emissions?
How sensitive is the climate to increased GHG concentrations?
How long will it take for changes to manifest?
How will those changes impact ecosystems, economies, societies and individuals (considering both positive and negative impacts)?
What is the net cost / benefit of the expected changes (allowing for the possiblity and costs of adaptation)?
What policy actions are politically feasible and economically viable?
At best, how much can those actions actually reduce emissions below "business as usual"?
With what probability of success?
Over what time frame?
At what cost, and with what unintended side-effects?
And ultimately... will the probability-adjusted future benefits of policy action (discounted to present value), exceed the real direct and indirect costs of taking action, and will those costs and benefits be distributed equitably?"(My emphasis)
The feature of "a chain of reasoning", like any chain, is that if one link fails, the entire chain fails. As such, your description of these twelve questions "essential links in the chain of reasoning" is a simply false description. I am inclined to say absurdly false.
It is false because these questions do not have yes/no answers. These are not logic gates. Rather the answers are in probabilities. So, it is perfectly reasonable to desire strenuous and urgent mitigation if you believe both that the mode (or median, or mean) of the Probability Density Function (PDF) of climate sensitivity is less than 2, and that the damage from moderate temperature increases are also low. All that is required for that to be rational is a belief in a long tail on the PDF for climate sensitivity, and a belief that expected costs rise exponentially with increasing GMST above 2 C. The result will be a very large expected cost from unmitigated emissions, even though combined with low "most likely" estimates of future temperature rises and costs.
Further, it is false because the questions are not independent. A person may believe in a low expected emissions with BAU because of an expected transition to low carbon energy sources in the near future due to rapid rises in the cost of fossil fuel energy due to easilly accessible and processed fossil fuel resources becoming exhausted, coupled with a rapid decrease in the cost of renewable energy. That same belief, however, will entail a belief that the cost of mitigation is very low, and possibly even negative (ie, it generates a positive benefit regardless any effects on GHG concentrations by smoothing the transition to renewables). Such a belief would (all else being equal) then place a high value on early mitigation based on a very low expected cost from mitigation coupled with being reational enough to entertain the belief that they may be wrong about future emissions pathways.
Alternatively, a person may expect low emissions with BAU but accept a very high value for climate sensitivity and a high value for the expected costs of increases in GMST, and consequently still strongly favour urgent mitigation.
The best that can be said of you list of questions is that they are all relevant. However, accepting low end probabilities on any of the questions does not compell rejection of the need for corrective policy without regard to other estimates.
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Russ R. at 13:45 PM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Leto,
Sorry for taking a while to respond.
"Russ, you perceive, or choose to perceive, a double-standard here. That is understandable, if you approach the whole discussion with a particular cognitive bias in which you start out believing warmists are inconsistent muddle-headed alarmists, and then merely seek confirmation of that in everything you read."
I do see a double standard here, and I also see the mirror image from the other side. The contraditory arguments they typically present are as follows:
- "Global warming? Are you serious? It's below freezing in Atlanta".
- "So what if it's hot in Australia. That's only a local weather event. Weather is not climate."
I'm sure you can see the obvious logical contradiction and double standard there. Why is it not a double standard when your side does it?
- "This record heat is consistent with global warming".
- "That record cold is not inconsistent with global warming"
Is there any weather event that could possibly be inconsistent with global warming? If not, isn't "consistent with global warming" a meaningless statement?
Moderator Response:[JH] Manmade climate change creates a new normal. Weather events occur in the new normal, not the old normal.
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Tom Curtis at 13:34 PM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Russ R @25, with respect, your question about falsification is not capable of being answered in a succinct form. That is because the hypothesis you are asking about is complex, and a large variety of circumstances would count as falsifying it. For any answer that can be expressed within the space of a comment, or even a single (or several) blog post, you will be able to point to multiple other circumstances that would falsify it. In short, compelling evidence that:
- Green house gas concentrations in the atmosphere will not grow beyond current levels even with BAU; or
- Expected GMST increase with increased GHG concentrations is << 2 C by 2100; or
- Expected harm from GMST increases of 2 C or more are limited; or
- Costs of adaption sufficient to largely limit harm are less than the costs of mitigation; or
- Costs of mitigation sufficient to largely limit harm are likely to cause more harm than they mitigate,
would falsify my "... belief that global warming is a serious problem that requires urgent policy action". However, that is not a sufficient listing because lower expected emissions with BAU along with lower climate sensitivity would also potentially falsify that belief, and so on for a great variety of combinations of factors.
In short, asking for a full listing of circumstances that would falsify so complex a belief is unreasonable - and smacks strongly of an attempt at a rhetorical "gotcha". That is particularly the case given that you did not merely rephrase your question between your post @1 and that @4; but completely changed the substance of the question. You further changed the substance of the question @17 by shifting it from indication of a criteria that would falsify the belief, to a requirement of exhaustive criteria that would falsify it. (On that point, any falsifiable element is sufficient to make a theory scientific by the naive falsificationist criteria to which you appeal in @1. Therefore Dikran Marsupial's response @16 was entirely adequate. In contrast, your response @17 shifts the goal posts by expecting not one falsifiable element, but an exhaustive listing of those elements.)
If you disagree with this assessment of the situation, please list your exhaustive criteria of all circumstances that would falsify your belief that global warming is not a problem requiring an urgent policy response. If you are unable to do so, or unwilling, we can reasonably conclude that you have knowingly set up an impossible bar for rhetorical purposes.
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Russ R. at 12:38 PM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
As I've written before... one at a time Ladies and Gentlemen.
I have a few things on my to-do list than prevent me from devoting all my time to this site. I'll do my best to get to each of you, but there's only one of me to go around.
Dikran Marsupial,
I'm sorry you feel that I'm not giving you adequate attention. I gave a list of 12 question that were specifically not covered in the "97% Consensus" from Cook et al. (2013), but were all part a critical chain of reasoning to argue for policy action. I wasn't making an argument for or against any of the 12 questions. My point, which I'll repeat again, is that any reasonable person who fully accepts the "97% Consensus" could still oppose policy action for at least a dozen other reasons. Opposing policy action does not make one a "denier" or part of the "3%" of dissenters. Your desire to debate each of the 12 questions was not germaine to the point I was making. Sorry.
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YubeDude at 12:30 PM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
@23
Well who is responsible for the creation and use of these "technological systems" if not humans?
That is like blaming over population on abstracts such as sexual deisre and the biological imperative but not the humans who are actually making all those babies. -
denisaf at 11:44 AM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
This discussion of climate change would be better if it was not being distorted by the comment that humans have caused climate change. The reality is that the operations of technological systems have disrupted natural operations, including the climate and the ocean. Emphasising that reality would undermine the arguments of the climate change skeptics.
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Steve Metzler at 09:35 AM on 17 February 2014How we know the greenhouse effect isn't saturated
Glenn explains it pretty well here, in terms that anyone familiar with the subject can understand. But a few readers are still having trouble coming to grips with this, so I refer you to a masterful science communicator, Spencer Weart:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/06/a-saturated-gassy-argument/
The takeaway paragraph from that article is:
"What happens if we add more carbon dioxide? In the layers so high and thin that much of the heat radiation from lower down slips through, adding more greenhouse gas molecules means the layer will absorb more of the rays. So the place from which most of the heat energy finally leaves the Earth will shift to higher layers. Those are colder layers, so they do not radiate heat as well. The planet as a whole is now taking in more energy than it radiates (which is in fact our current situation). As the higher levels radiate some of the excess downwards, all the lower levels down to the surface warm up. The imbalance must continue until the high levels get hot enough to radiate as much energy back out as the planet is receiving."
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Wol at 09:24 AM on 17 February 2014Discussing global warming: why does this have to be so hard?
.
afjje1: Agreed completely. The trouble is that, reading the preposterous posts that are the majority of the "debate" in populist blogs shows that the level of basic scientific ignorance is such that meaningful debate is impossible.
When straw man arguments trump facts you know that you are on the losing side.
.
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Leto at 06:48 AM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
"Well for me a period without statistically significant warming that was sufficiently long for the test to have statistical power of 0.95 or more, during which atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased at the current rate or higher, and in the absence of changes in external forcings (such as volcanic or solar forcing), or known sources of internal climate variability (such as ENSO) that could plausibly explain the lack of warming."
This would be a sufficient condition for taking notice and wondering at the cause of the observed pause, but surely not a sufficient condition for overturning all the other evidence in favour of AGW. If, by 'statistically significant', you simply mean p<0.05, then this merely means that similar results would have had a <5% probability of occurring 'by chance' in some idealised (nonexistent) world where AGW was false and there was no underlying warming trend. Given the a priori evidence for AGW in the real world, the likelihood that the 'significant' pause had appeared by chance (or because of some unanticipated/unknown confounding factor) would be much higher than 5% (possibly closer to 99%). You certainly would not be 95% confident that AGW had been overturned.
Dikran, I know you know this, but others might not.
That aside, Russ is clearly playing rhetorical games. The vast web of evidence in favour of AGW would require a matching web of counter-evidence, plus some explanation of why all the evidence and theory to date had pointed the wrong way. Several basic tenants of physics would have to be revised, for a start.
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michael sweet at 03:40 AM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
President Obama and the Mayor of Los Angeles discuss the severe economic effects California is having to deal with today because of Climate Change newspaper report here. Obama discussed these yesterday in the Central Vally of California, the producer of 1/2 the fruit and vegetables in the USA, threatened by unprecedented drought. This will be a multi billion dollar disaster this year. How long will it last?
Russ:
You did not address my data showing that you were comparing a normal cold month in the USA to record setting heat in Australia, the USA and record floods in England. Do you really feel these events are comaprable? It is a waste of time to continue our discussion if you feel normal cold equals record setting heat and floods. What do you think about the multi-billion dollar drought in California, predicted in advance by scientists?
I get the impression that you feel that the propaganda they put on at WUWT equals the data discussed here at Skeptical Science. If you want to continue to post here you need to review the data better.
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mgardner at 03:33 AM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
@18Rob Honeycutt
Rob, I was going to say something similar; I would be really worried if DM's scenario were to occur. The choice: Question a ton of physics, or start looking for a mysterious phenomenon sucking energy out of the system. (Interdimensional Klingons?)
But your last sentence is really salient for interactions with the Russ's of the world. I have yet to see any of them willing to engage in a concrete discussion about a specific mitigation policy. I like to use rooftop solar as a thought exercise, but pick anything, like a carbon tax, and you will simply follow the same old path of evasion, rhetorical fallacy, and finally appeal to ideology and emotion. (It's Socialism!) And this from the side of the political spectrum that claims knowledge of economics and markets...
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afjje1 at 03:31 AM on 17 February 2014Discussing global warming: why does this have to be so hard?
This site is brilliant; this discussion is vital. I'm eager to hear this community's response to a few thoughts.
1. As others have noted, communication contexts vary considerably. What constitutes effective communication over family dinners is not the same as what constitutes effective communication in publicized debates, or public exchanges with informed opponents, or with uninformed opponents, or in classroom lectures, or through songs and poetry. Abraham's suggestions really do seem on target for exchanges with the most reasonable and best informed climate skeptics - those who genuinely think the climate science is on their side and try to defend this view using good faith reasoning.
2. I don't see much point in trying to figure out a communication strategy that will "work" with climate change "skeptics" in general. What constitutes a successful exchange, what motivates "skeptics", and what they believe are too varied for there to be any silver bullet argument that would move most interlocutors or listeners in the same general direction. The metaphor may be getting tired, but we need a buckshot approach. Abraham's contribution is part of that buckshot, but there is more. I recently saw a post from a park ranger who moved audiences best by using humor. Many people probably saw the viral video of the woman who claimed to have been convinced by the film Chasing Ice. I believe we need to build a knowledge base of what works and doesn't work (with clarity about what "working"means) in a variety of specific contexts.
3. That said, there are two "general" strategies I would like to suggest and get your thoughts about.
First, I would like to see the scientific community (perhaps via bodies like AAAS) take a stand generally frowning upon media debates of the Nye vs. Blackburn, Hoskins vs. Lawson sort. The media's false balance problem and the inherent disadvantage of debate format mentioned by Phil#37 is well understood from creationist debates. Debates are specifically about winning, not enlightening, not connecting, or communicating, and we have known about the advantages of sophistry for millenia. It would be great to see a lot more science education in the media, but that will have to involve refusal to participate in spectacles that have no significant educational value along with insistence on setting the terms of the formats that are acceptable.
Second, I would like to see the scientific community get together with the field of conflict resolution to put together a high profile national media campaign whose specific goal is to break the taboo and polarization paralyzing public discussion of climate change. It's not my area of expertise, but my sense is that agreement on the groundrules of discussion is necessary for polarized parties to enter into good faith dialogue with one another. This might mean pushing the conversation back several levels. What would you count as impartial expertise? What do you think constitutes as evidence of bias? The public seems deeply uninformed that there is such a thing as peer review or how it works, and therefore defenseless against conspiracy theories.
With Abraham, I think most people (not all people) are well meaning. Like many commentors, I think most of the public has been duped about the degree of scientific consensus and so fail to accept the scientific basics that more informed skeptics accept. Like Abraham, I believe on the basis of research (as well as experience with my own students) that many people come around when they realize how extensive the agreement is. And like Abraham, I think we also share many fundamental values across the chasm of disagreement.
But that chasm is clearly deepened and widened by profound distrust between the climate science/advocacy and climate skeptic/doubter communities. Neither facts nor brilliantly devised values-based arguments will rebuild that trust. I suspect we'll need a lot of first-hand direct conversation with people who don't trust those on "our side." But that will require the courage to trust that "they" care about the world and about the truth as much as we do. (Rather in the way that the rapid shift in public opinion on gay marriage has had so much to do with people having the courage to come out, trusting family and friends not to shun them. It's hard to distrust gays as a group when your sister is a lesbian and your coworker is a gay man.) One of the things I admire most about Abraham's post is that it helps demonstrate what that trust might look like.
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Dikran Marsupial at 03:27 AM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Russ R wrote: "I was ignoring your question because it had nothing to do with Cook et al. (2013) whereas Obama's tweet did. "
I'm sorry, but that is utterly disingenuous, you wrote:
"The "97% consensus" that's you're reporting has nothing to say regarding any of the following, each of which is an essential link in the chain of reasoning that corrective policy action must be taken."
followed by a list of twelve elements of that chain which you claimed to have doubts about. Thus asking you for the reasons for your doubt about one of those links is relevant to the discussion of the concensus, because you raised it as an agrument against the meaningfulness of the concensus.
Russ also wrote "That is an excellent, very well presented answer. But I'd argue that it's only a start. Warming itself isn't the justification for action. The effects of warming and their impacts on the environment, economies and societies are the reason to consider taking action."
So it would seem that Russ R was not actually interested in the answer to the question, as he has done nothing with it, just used it as a springboard to ask another (you asked "what observations...", so wandering off into effects and economics is just evasion).
I'm sorry, but evading questions and asking rhetorical questions and then not doing anything with the ansers is blatant trolling.
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How we know the greenhouse effect isn't saturated
The absorption band of CO2 centred at 667 cm-1 (15 microns) grows wider as higher concentrations of CO2 make the atmosphere opaque at frequencies where it previously was quite transparent. This moves the altitude of heat loss in the “wings” of the CO2 band from the low or middle troposphere up to the cold tropopause while the central part of the band moves to the warmer stratosphere.
These spectra (made with MODTRAN) haven’t taken into account the rising surface temperature, the higher tropopause and the cooling stratosphere caused by more CO2. The latter will partly offset the growing spike in the middle of the absorption band and thus restrict the heat loss to space even more than shown here.
The impact from CO2 is very far from saturated!
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Rob Honeycutt at 02:53 AM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Russ... Note that there is far more to DM's answer on the falsifiability of man-made global warming.
Even if all that DM lays out were to happen (95% confidence range, no other external forcings, etc.) there would still be a clear problem with discarding the theory since the theory explains far more than just modern warming. CO2 and greenhouse gas theory explains a whole ton of other stuff including amplification of glacial-interglacial cycles, PETM, snowball earth and more.
So, not only would one be in a position of needing a new theory to explain modern warming, we'd also have to explain a long list of other things that currently fit neatly into CO2 theory.
The theory is quite clearly falsifiable. The issue is that a theory as solid as this is extremely unlikely to be falsified.
And yes, the question at hand is also is a matter of impacts that justify taking rapid action today to avert future disasters. Those are harder to pin down. But the long and short becomes, those are risk assessments that have to be made. Some that are currently predicted may never happen. There are other impacts that we may currently be blissfully unaware of. So, how much are we willing to risk?
What I continually find astounding with the entire climate issue is that there are so many folks out there who seem so much more terrified by the solutions than they are by potential impacts.
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ashieuk at 02:42 AM on 17 February 2014MP Graham Stringer and CNN Crossfire are wrong about the 97% consensus on human-caused global warming
@Wol. There was a takedown of Booker and the article in question earlier today by Tim Fenton:
Booker Exposed As Total Charlatan
http://zelo-street.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/booker-exposed-as-total-charlatan.html
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Russ R. at 02:15 AM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Dikran Marsupial,
"please tell me why we should bother answering your questions, when you blatantly evade those presented to you by trying to deflect the discussion onto what Obama tweeted?"
I was ignoring your question because it had nothing to do with Cook et al. (2013) whereas Obama's tweet did. I also had a fair number of responses to attend to that were on topic. Please don't take it personally.
"Well for me a period without statistically significant warming that was sufficiently long for the test to have statistical power of 0.95 or more, during which atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased at the current rate or higher, and in the absence of changes in external forcings (such as volcanic or solar forcing), or known sources of internal climate variability (such as ENSO) that could plausibly explain the lack of warming."
That is an excellent, very well presented answer. But I'd argue that it's only a start. Warming itself isn't the justification for action. The effects of warming and their impacts on the environment, economies and societies are the reason to consider taking action.
I'm in the process of composing my own answer to the question, which I will share here.
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Dikran Marsupial at 01:19 AM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Russ R, please tell me why we should bother answering your questions, when you blatantly evade those presented to you by trying to deflect the discussion onto what Obama tweeted?
The question about falsifiability of climate change is a canard that we have seen here many many times before. However, to show that SkS regulars don't need to stoop to evasion, I'll answer your question:
"What observable evidence would cause you to reject your belief that global warming is a serious problem that requires [urgent] [considered, evidence based] policy action?"
Well for me a period without statistically significant warming that was sufficiently long for the test to have statistical power of 0.95 or more, during which atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased at the current rate or higher, and in the absence of changes in external forcings (such as volcanic or solar forcing), or known sources of internal climate variability (such as ENSO) that could plausibly explain the lack of warming.
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Brooks Bridges at 01:05 AM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Russ,
The National Academy of Sciences, the International Energy Agency, and the World Bank all accept that global warming/climate change is happening, it's caused by humans and we should have started doing far more yesterday to stop it.
You seem to think the world must cater to your specific requirements for proof. The proof is here on this site. I suggest you would study the material more thorougly.
The proof doesn't have to perfect to be perfectly persuasive.
I for one have written my last post responding to your comments. No reply is ever going to convince you.
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michael sweet at 00:09 AM on 17 February 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #7
Russ,
When you start your argument with a false premise and then say you do not want to discuss it it becomes easy to win any argument.
It is completely false to suggest that the current "cold" weather in the US East is unusual. All the reports say something like "coldest since 1996" or "coldest since 1985". Please provide evidence that the recent weather is unusual compared to the weather in 1930, or stop making this completely false argument. January 2014 was the 53rd coldest January in the USA (out of 119), hardly a record. The record cold January in the USA was in 1979 and was 4.6C colder. Even combining the December/Jan data only gives the 33rd coldest on record. 2012 was the hottest year ever in the USA and was 3.2 F above average and 1.0F above the second hottest year. You call the 33 coldest Dec/Jan comparable to the extreme hottest ever? That is not a reasonable argument, perhaps you forgot to look at the data. The 53rd coldest January cannot reasonably be compared to the floods in England you cited whice are the worst in a record over 200 years long. Extreme record temperatures like the record hottest Australia heat wave are significant. Please provide data to support your claim of "record cold" lasting a month anywhere in the world, anytime in the past 5 years, that compares to the record hot Australia or USA records (which were yearly records). If such data cannot be found that proves you are making an empty retorical argument and do not care about the data.
It is perfectly acceptable to cite an extreme record like the floods as evidence of a change in weather while a typical cold snap from 50 years ago is not significant of anything. In the last year there have been 187 yearly high temperatures recorded in the USA and 44 cold records data, and it was a cold year compared to the past decade. This statistical summary of data proves that AGW is here. The 500 year drought currently occuring in California is proof that the problem is dangerous, or do you feel that we do not need fruits and vegetables in the USA any more?
I will be convinced that AGW is not happening if you can prove that Arhennius was wrong in 1896 with his predictions. He predicted: days warming faster than nights, winter faster than summer, land faster than sea, Northern Hemisphere faster than Southern and the Arctic warming fastest. You cannot even provide evidence that science from the 1800's is incorrect, I do not need to cite recent, better supported evidence. What will proove to you that AGW is occuring and is dangerous? It appears you are the one who has an unprovable hypothesis, since the data is overwhelming that AGW is dangerous and you cling to you beliefs anyway.
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