Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #25, 2021
Posted on 23 June 2021 by Doug Bostrom
Avoiding unintended consequences of mitigation
For the layperson it's not very difficult to imagine scenarios where effective mitigation of CO2 (and some other GHGs) will involve economic dislocation or at least rearrangements that may reverberate with other stressors to drive vulnerable societies farther in the the direction of unrest. An easy example would be a developing nation with a fragile system of governance and an incomplete export economy relying heavily on fossil fuels finding itself suddenly without a market for its only significant export. Or, an older and more mature political economy may find itself with a vast pool of workers previously employed with maintenance-hungry internal combustion powered automobiles and idled over a period of a decade. In each case the positive of mitigation produces a potential liability— if that hazard is overlooked. It isn't, and we have only to listen in order to have an inkling of how to do better. In a vastly more subtle (and better informed, more informative) exploration than our examples here, Gilmore & Buhaug first review what's known about positive or negative ripple effects of mitigation into general civic life and then suggest research pathways to further illumination of this important topic. Climate mitigation policies and the potential pathways to conflict: Outlining a research agenda is written in admirably accessible fashion and in keeping with its thrust is drenched with interesting references ot prior work.
127 Articles
Observations of climate change, effects
Anthropogenic and climatic contributions to observed carbon system trends in the Northeast Pacific
Franco et al Global Biogeochemical Cycles
DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006829
Emergence of seasonal delay of tropical rainfall during 1979–2019
Song et al Nature Climate Change
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01066-x
Dwindling Relevance of Large Volcanic Eruptions for Global Glacier Changes in the Anthropocene
Zemp & Marzeion Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl092964
Observed increasing water constraint on vegetation growth over the last three decades
Jiao et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24016-9
Persistent freshening of the Arctic Ocean and changes in the North Atlantic salinity caused by Arctic sea ice decline
Li & Fedorov Fedorov Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05850-5 10.21203/rs.3.rs-584527/v1
Climatological Analysis of Freezing Level Height over China and its Implications using Homogenised In?Situ Data
Guo et al International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7260
Changes in the diurnal temperature range over East Asia from 1901 to 2018 and its relationship with precipitation
Sun et al Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-411321/v1 10.1007/s10584-021-03120-1
A persistent and intense marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific during 2019–2020
Chen et al Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093239
Climate change is contributing to faster rates of lake ice loss in lakes around the Northern Hemisphere
Imrit & Sharma Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg006134
Impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation, wind characteristics and wave in the western part of the Black Sea
Nojarov Natural Hazards
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04869-5
Increased Impact of the Tibetan Plateau Spring Snow Cover to the Mei-yu Rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley after the 1990s DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04869-5
Strengthening Influence of El Niño on the Following Spring Precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04869-5
Atmospheric Circumglobal Teleconnection Triggered by Spring Land Thermal Anomalies over West Asia and Its Possible Impacts on Early Summer Climate over Northern China
Yang et al Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0911.1
Changes in regional wet heatwave in Eurasia during summer (1979–2017)
Yu et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0745
Relationship of irrigated wheat yield with temperature in hot environments of Sudan
Musa et al Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03690-1
Hot extremes have become drier in the United States Southwest
McKinnon et al Nature Climate Change
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01076-9
Changes in the Subantarctic Mode Water Properties and Spiciness in the Southern Indian Ocean based on Argo Observations
ZHANG et al Journal of Physical Oceanography
DOI: 10.1175/jpo-d-20-0254.1
Multi-indices analysis of heavy precipitation changes in Anhui Province, China
Li et al Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
DOI: 10.1007/s00703-021-00810-4
Kerala floods in consecutive years - Its association with mesoscale cloudburst and structural changes in monsoon clouds over the west coast of India
Vijaykumar et al Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100339
Winter–spring warming in the North Atlantic during the last 2000 years: evidence from southwest Iceland
Richter et al Climate of the Past
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-1363-2021
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
The EUMETSAT Polar System: 13+ Successful Years of Global Observations for Operational Weather Prediction and Climate Monitoring
Klaes et al Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0082.1
Climate indices in historical climate reconstructions: a global state of the art
Nash et al Climate of the Past
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-1273-2021 10.5194/cp-2020-126 10.5194/cp-2020-126-sc1
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Climate sensitivity indices and their relation with projected temperature change in CMIP6 models
Huusko et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0748
Future Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Droughts over China Based on Two Large Ensemble Simulations
Li et al Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0656.1
Future changes in precipitation extremes across China based on CMIP6 models
Xu et al International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7264
Change in soil organic carbon and its climate drivers over the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP5 earth system models
Li et al Theoretical and Applied Climatology
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03631-y
How do CMIP6 models project changes in precipitation extremes over seasons and locations across the mid hills of Nepal?
Chhetri et al Theoretical and Applied Climatology
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03698-7
Internal variability and temperature scaling of future sub-daily rainfall return levels over Europe
Poschlod & Ludwig Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0849
Drivers and projections of global surface temperature anomalies at the local scale
Benz et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0661
Contrasting the role of human- and lightning-caused wildfires on future fire regimes on a Central Oregon landscape
Barros et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac03da
Anthropogenic influences on the African easterly jet–African easterly wave system
Bercos-Hickey & Patricola Climate Dynamics
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05838-1
Pacific circulation response to eastern Arctic sea ice reduction in seasonal forecast simulations
Seidenglanz et al Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05830-9
Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Warm Cloud Evolution, Precipitation, and Their Weak Linkage in HadGEM3: New Process-Level Diagnostics Using A-Train Observations
Takahashi et al Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-20-0321.1
A Comprehensive Database of the Optical Properties of Irregular Aerosol Particles for Radiative Transfer Simulations
Saito et al Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-20-0338.1
Aerosol-cloud interactions: The representation of heterogeneous ice activation in cloud models
Kärcher & Marcolli
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-511
Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Change Simulations for Understanding Future Climate and Informing Decision-Making in Africa DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-511
On the suitability of deep convolutional neural networks for continental-wide downscaling of climate change projections
Baño-Medina et al Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05847-0
The effect of resolution on vertical heat and carbon transports in a regional ocean circulation model of the Argentine Basin
Swierczek et al Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
DOI: 10.1029/2021jc017235
Large model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves
Zheng et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24113-9 10.31223/osf.io/f5pwa
Inter-model spread in the wintertime Arctic amplification in the CMIP6 models and the important role of internal climate variability
Ye & Messori Global and Planetary Change
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103543
Introducing NARCliM1.5: evaluating the performance of regional climate projections for southeast Australia for 1950?2100
Nishant et al Earth's Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001833
Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response
Bellomo et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10504664.3 10.1038/s41467-021-24015-w 10.1002/essoar.10504664.1 10.1002/essoar.10504664.2 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8452
Surface temperature variability in climate models with large and small internal climate variability
Yeh et al Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society JOURNAL OF MECHANICS OF CONTINUA AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/qj.4112 10.26782/jmcms.spl.10/2020.06.00048
Robust Amazon precipitation projections in climate models that capture realistic land–atmosphere interactions
Baker et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfb2e
Cryosphere & climate change
Dwindling Relevance of Large Volcanic Eruptions for Global Glacier Changes in the Anthropocene
Zemp & Marzeion Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl092964
Climate change is contributing to faster rates of lake ice loss in lakes around the Northern Hemisphere
Imrit & Sharma Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg006134
Submarine Meltwater from Nioghalvfjerdsbræ (79 North Glacier), Northeast Greenland
Huhn et al Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
DOI: 10.1029/2021jc017224
Increased Impact of the Tibetan Plateau Spring Snow Cover to the Mei-yu Rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley after the 1990s DOI: 10.1029/2021jc017224
The impact of the freeze–melt cycle of land-fast ice on the distribution of dissolved organic matter in the Laptev and East Siberian seas (Siberian Arctic)
Hölemann et al Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-3637-2021
Diverse Eurasian Winter Temperature Responses to Barents?Kara Sea Ice Anomalies of Different Magnitudes and Seasonality
Zhang & Screen Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl092726
Methane cycling within sea ice: results from drifting ice during late spring, north of Svalbard
Verdugo et al The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-2701-2021 10.5194/tc-2020-208
Sea level & climate change
A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping
Almar et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24008-9
Rapid increases and extreme months in projections of United States high-tide flooding
Thompson et al Nature Climate Change
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01077-8
Uncertainty and bias in global to regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risk
Hinkel et al Earth's Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001882
Sea level rise outpaced by vertical dune toe translation on prograding coasts
van IJzendoorn et al Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-92150-x
Paleoclimate
An energy budget approach to understand the Arctic warming during the Last Interglacial
Sicard et al
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-2021-70
Pliocene evolution of the tropical Atlantic thermocline depth
van der Weijst et al
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-2021-68 10.5194/cp-2021-68-supplement
Revised alkenone δ13C based CO2 estimates during the Plio-Pleistocene DOI: 10.5194/cp-2021-68 10.5194/cp-2021-68-supplement
Biology & climate change, ocean acidification
Consequences of phenological shifts and a compressed breeding period in Magellanic penguins
Cappello & Boersma Ecology
DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3443
Plant phenological responses to experimental warming—A synthesis
Stuble et al Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15685
Molecular response of a sub-Antarctic population of the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis platensis) to a moderate thermal stress. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15685
Physiology, Niche Characteristics and Extreme Events: Current and Future Habitat Suitability of a Rhodolith-Forming Species in the Southwestern Atlantic
Koerich et al Marine Environmental Research
DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2021.105394
Combined effects of seawater acidification and benzo(a)pyrene on the physiological performance of the marine bloom-forming diatom Skeletonema costatum DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2021.105394
Detecting subtle change from dense Landsat time series: Case studies of mountain pine beetle and spruce beetle disturbance
Ye et al Remote Sensing of Environment
pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2021.112560
Effects of climate variation on bird escape distances modulate community responses to global change
Díaz et al Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-92273-1
Photoacclimation by phytoplankton determines the distribution of global subsurface chlorophyll maxima in the ocean
Masuda et al Communications Earth & Environment
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00201-y
Committed and projected future changes in global peatlands – continued transient model simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum
Müller & Joos Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021
Why are surface ocean pH and CaCO3 saturation state often out of phase in spatial patterns and seasonal cycles? DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021
How do climate modes shape the chlorophyll?a interannual variability in the tropical Atlantic?
Chenillat et al Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093769
Adaptation of Mediterranean forest species to climate: lessons from common garden experiments
Ramírez?Valiente et al Journal of Ecology
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13730
Resolving temperature limitation on spring productivity in an evergreen conifer forest using a model-data fusion framework
Stettz et al
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2021-152 10.5194/bg-2021-152-supplement
Impacts of ocean acidification on growth and toxin content of the marine diatoms Pseudo-nitzschia australis and P. fraudulenta DOI: 10.5194/bg-2021-152 10.5194/bg-2021-152-supplement
Soil metabolome response to whole-ecosystem warming at the Spruce and Peatland Responses under Changing Environments experiment
Wilson et al Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2004192118
Climate and the latitudinal limits of subtropical reef development
Toth et al Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-87883-8
Tree growth and treeline responses to temperature: Different questions and concepts
Camarero et al Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15728
GHG sources & sinks, flux
Anthropogenic and climatic contributions to observed carbon system trends in the Northeast Pacific
Franco et al Global Biogeochemical Cycles
DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006829
Unaccounted CO2 leaks downstream of a large tropical hydroelectric reservoir
Calamita et al Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2026004118
Reviews and syntheses: Heterotrophic fixation of inorganic carbon – significant but invisible flux in environmental carbon cycling
Braun et al Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-3689-2021
Joint CO2 Mole Fraction and Flux Analysis Confirms Missing Processes in CASA Terrestrial Carbon Uptake over North America
Feng et al
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10505330.1
Anthropogenic and climatic contributions to observed carbon system trends in the Northeast Pacific
Franco et al Global Biogeochemical Cycles
DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006829
Contribution of microbial photosynthesis to peatland carbon uptake along a latitudinal gradient
Hamard et al Journal of Ecology
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13732 10.1111/1365-2745.13732/v1/review1 10.1111/1365-2745.13732/v1/review2 10.1111/1365-2745.13732/v2/review1 10.1111/1365-2745.13732/v2/review2 10.1111/1365-2745.13732/v1/decision1 10.1111/1365-2745.13732/v2/decision1 10.1111/1365-2745.13732/v3/decision1
Committed and projected future changes in global peatlands – continued transient model simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum
Müller & Joos Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021
Improved gridded ammonia emission inventory in China
Li et al
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-439 10.5194/acp-2021-439-supplement
The impact of the freeze–melt cycle of land-fast ice on the distribution of dissolved organic matter in the Laptev and East Siberian seas (Siberian Arctic)
Hölemann et al Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-3637-2021
Russian forest sequesters substantially more carbon than previously reported
Schepaschenko et al Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9
Methane cycling within sea ice: results from drifting ice during late spring, north of Svalbard
Verdugo et al The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-2701-2021 10.5194/tc-2020-208
Relative importance of climatic variables, soil properties and plant traits to spatial variability in net CO2 exchange across global forests and grasslands DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-2701-2021 10.5194/tc-2020-208
Different responses of ecosystem CO2 and N2O emissions and CH4 uptake to seasonally asymmetric warming in an alpine grassland of the Tianshan DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-2701-2021 10.5194/tc-2020-208
Comparative carbon footprint analysis of residents of wooden and non-wooden houses in Finland
Ottelin et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac06f9
Evaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects
Grewe et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24091-y
CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering
Asymmetry in the climate–carbon cycle response to positive and negative CO2 emissions
Zickfeld et al Nature Climate Change
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01061-2 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12790
Impact of carbon dioxide removal technologies on deep decarbonization of the electric power sector
Bistline & Blanford Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23554-6
Risk?based area of review estimation in overpressured reservoirs to support injection well storage facility permit requirements for CO2 storage projects DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23554-6
How public cognition influences public acceptance of CCUS in China: Based on the ABC (affect, behavior, and cognition) model of attitudes
Liu et al Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112390
Forest carbon trajectories: Consequences of alternative land-use scenarios in New England
Graham MacLean et al Global Environmental Change
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102310
Commercial afforestation can deliver effective climate change mitigation under multiple decarbonisation pathways
Forster et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24084-x
Geoengineering climate
Potential implications of solar radiation modification for achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals
Honegger et al Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11027-021-09958-1
Black carbon
Exploring the uncertainties in the aviation soot-cirrus effect
Righi et al
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-329 10.5194/acp-2021-329-supplement
The outflow of Asian biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol into the UTLS in spring: Radiative effects seen in a global model
Chavan et al
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-494 10.5194/acp-2021-494-supplement
Understanding the surface temperature response and its uncertainty to CO2, CH4, black carbon and sulfate DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-494 10.5194/acp-2021-494-supplement
Aerosols
Understanding the surface temperature response and its uncertainty to CO2, CH4, black carbon and sulfate DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-494 10.5194/acp-2021-494-supplement
Decarbonization
Effects of decarbonization on the energy system and related employment effects in South Africa
Hanto et al Environmental Science & Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.06.001
Impact of carbon dioxide removal technologies on deep decarbonization of the electric power sector
Bistline & Blanford Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23554-6
Climate change communications & cognition
Fighting the future: The politics of climate policy failure in Australia (2015–2020)
Crowley WIREs Climate Change
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.725
Anger Consensus Messaging Can Enhance Expectations for Collective Action and Support for Climate Mitigation
Sabherwal et al Journal of Environmental Psychology
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvp.2021.101640
Political message matching and green behaviors: Strengths and boundary conditions for promoting high-impact behavioral change
Scharmer & Snyder Journal of Environmental Psychology
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvp.2021.101643
Making the climate crisis personal through a focus on human health
Limaye Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03107-y
Climate-change beliefs and resilience to climate change in Bangladesh: is leadership making any difference?
Haque & Jahid Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences
DOI: 10.1007/s13412-021-00706-0
Using social media audience data to analyse the drivers of low-carbon diets
Eker et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abf770
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Relationship of irrigated wheat yield with temperature in hot environments of Sudan
Musa et al Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03690-1
Modeling high-resolution climate change impacts on wheat and maize in Italy
Mereu et al Climate Risk Management
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100339
The impact of climate change on the productivity of conservation agriculture
Su et al Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01075-w 10.21203/rs.3.rs-63752/v1
Hydrology & climate change
Uncertainty and bias in global to regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risk
Hinkel et al Earth's Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001882
Changes in the diurnal temperature range over East Asia from 1901 to 2018 and its relationship with precipitation
Sun et al Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-411321/v1 10.1007/s10584-021-03120-1
Internal variability and temperature scaling of future sub-daily rainfall return levels over Europe
Poschlod & Ludwig Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0849
Streamflow stationarity in a changing world
Yang et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac08c1
Overall uncertainty of climate change impacts on watershed hydrology in China
Zhang et al International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7257
Establishing sustainable sediment budgets is critical for climate-resilient mega-deltas
Vasilopoulos et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fc
Cross-border climate vulnerabilities of the European Union to drought
Ercin et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23584-0
Kerala floods in consecutive years - Its association with mesoscale cloudburst and structural changes in monsoon clouds over the west coast of India
Vijaykumar et al Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100339
Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation
Integrated perspective on translating biophysical to economic impacts of climate change
Piontek et al Nature Climate Change
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01065-y
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Designing flexible regulations to mitigate climate change: A cross-country comparative policy analysis
Rhodes et al Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112419
+++Climate mitigation policies and the potential pathways to conflict: Outlining a research agenda
Gilmore & Buhaug WIREs Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/wcc.722
Diversifying Chile’s climate action away from industrial plantations
Hoyos-Santillan et al Environmental Science & Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.06.013
City footprints and SDGs provide untapped potential for assessing city sustainability
Wiedmann & Allen Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23968-2
The role of supreme audit institutions in energy accountability in EU countries
Su?kowski & Dobrowolski Energy Policy
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112413
Climate change impacts on human health
Changes in regional wet heatwave in Eurasia during summer (1979–2017)
Yu et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0745
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
A plan evaluation framework for examining stakeholder policy preferences in resilience planning and management of urban systems
Li et al Environmental Science & Policy
pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.06.015
Uncertainty and bias in global to regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risk
Hinkel et al Earth's Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001882
Neighborhood change during managed retreat: buyouts, housing loss, and White flight
Martin & Nguyen Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences
DOI: 10.1007/s13412-021-00690-5
+++Climate-induced managed retreat in the U.S.: a review of current research
Dundon & Abkowitz Climate Risk Management
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100337
Climate change impacts on human culture
Understanding and responding to climate-driven non-economic loss and damage in the Pacific Islands
McNamara et al Climate Risk Management
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100336
Three emergencies of climate change: The case of Louisiana’s coast
Fazey et al Environmental Science & Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.05.014
Historic narratives, myths and human behavior in times of climate change: A review from northern Europe's coastlands
Holzhausen & Grecksch WIREs Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/wcc.723
Other
The climate impact of COVID-19-induced contrail changes
Gettelman et al Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-9405-2021
The Impacts of the Early Outset of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Climate Change Research: implications for policy-making
Filho et al Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.06.008
Unusual west Arctic storm activity during winter 2020: Another collapse of the Beaufort High?
Ballinger et al Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl092518
On the Settling Depth of Meltwater Escaping from beneath Antarctic Ice Shelves
Arnscheidt et al Journal of Physical Oceanography
DOI: 10.1175/jpo-d-20-0286.1
The Covid-19 shock on a low-carbon grid: Evidence from the nordics
Mauritzen Energy Policy SSRN Electronic Journal
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112416 10.2139/ssrn.3805795
Influence of weather situation on non-CO2 aviation climate effects: the REACT4C climate change functions
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-529-rc2
Empirical evidence for a global atmospheric temperature control system: physical structure
Leggett & Ball Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2021.1926123
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Climate mitigation policies and the potential pathways to conflict: Outlining a research agenda
Gilmore & Buhaug WIREs Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/wcc.722
Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Change Simulations for Understanding Future Climate and Informing Decision-Making in Africa DOI: 10.1002/wcc.722
Antarctica’s Gateways and Gatekeepers: Polar scenarios in a polarising Anthropocene
Frame et al The Anthropocene Review
DOI: 10.1177/20530196211026341
Integrated perspective on translating biophysical to economic impacts of climate change
Piontek et al Nature Climate Change
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01065-y
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Fire in the past and heat in the future
Lengyel Conservation Biology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13793
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I've noticed the following starting to circulate through the internet: "Is the marine ice cliff hypothesis collapsing?" By N.R. Golledge, D.P. Lowry.
The gratuitously melodramatically titled commentary on,
"Transition to marine ice cliff instability controlled by ice thickness gradients and velocity."
Bassis JN, Berg B, Crawford AJ, Benn DI.
Science. 2021 Jun 18;372(6548):1342-1344. doi: 10.1126/science.abf6271.
Hopefully SkS will look at that paper and dedicate an article to looking at the details.
It's behind the paywall and the SN article left some tidbits unexamined: "The researchers also found that in relatively warm ambient temperatures, ice flow upstream of the cliff thins the glacier and reduces the height of the cliff, thus reducing the likelihood of runaway collapses."
Since the article addresses sea level rise - why is this elastic thinning of glacier height a reason for comfort? Doesn't it simply mean the flow into the sea follows a different regime/tempo? The bottomline being that the thinning is plenty significant of a situation that's starting to run away, in the wrong direction.
Also I found it curious that the news reports/reviews don't say anything about the study factoring in the warming ocean currents. Considering it's impact on eating away at glaciers, seem a rather important detail.
Did they include that? If not, why not?
I for one sure hope that someone from the SkepticalScience team takes the time to give this paper and Golledge & Lowry piece an informed closer look and writes a critical review.
One that helps us better appreciate any omissions in that study.
@citizenschallenge, I've downloaded those and will read them in more depth tomorrow. Surficially, they appear pretty straightforward and anyone using them to deny the understood science of AGW, land-based ice sheet losses and SLR is being disingenuous and misrepresenting those 2 papers. They appear to be good news, in that future losses from the ice sheets will more closely follow existing modeled pathways and not something far more extreme.
Reading the research paper and the Nature commentary on it, they are pretty much in-line with the recent 2019 SROCC (Chapter 4 is most relevant). Table 4.4 gives these numbers:
Don't take my word on it, though. There's a number of discussions out there already (like here and here) saying pretty much the same thing.
For me, the main thing is that they look at the recent research, both the early research by DeConto and the later stuff, which shows that some of the early concerns about marine ice cliff instability were not as bad as originally feared.
Does this mean that the land-based ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland may not hold some SLR surprises in store for us? Of course they might. But without a magic crystal ball or a time machine to know with certainty what emissions pathways society will follow in the future, we have to go with what they physics of ice sheets informs us. This research does not rule out worse results this century than the SROCC delineates.
As scientists Joelle Gergis and Richard Alley told a group of us at a recent AGU meeting, the current models (CMIP3 and CMIP5) treat the land-based ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica as "like rocks, but painted white". Meaning that they were not coupled or interactive with their surroundings in any climate-related way. The CMIP6 models, however, look to more fully couple those ice sheets with their surrounding ocean regimes.
Society will have an enormous difficulty in dealing with the first meter of SLR, due at some point this century. If it gets a second meter this century (perhaps not globally, but possibly in some regions), that will be catastrophic.