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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #2, 2021

Posted on 13 January 2021 by Doug Bostrom

Tide of tidal data rises 

Having cast our own fate to include rising sea level, there's a degree of urgency in learning the history of mean sea level in any given spot, beyond idle curiosity. Sea level rise (SLR) isn't equal from one place to another and even at a particular coordinate is not monotonic, isn't smoothly continuous. Particularly for adaptation and resilience planning purposes it's useful to know the full history of sea level anywhere that something or someone is at risk from rising waters. 

Also, our nature is such that yes, we're simply curious about such things as "how high was the sea here, 125 years ago?" 

As a case in point, distinguished specialist in such matters Dr. Marta Marcos  leads a team to successful recovery of valuable tidal data from some  old instruments fascinating in their own right, in Historical tide gauge sea?level observations in Alicante and Santander (Spain) since the 19th century,  just published as an open access paper. This paper is especially effective in concisely conveying the broader context of the specific work at hand, and offers a rich trove of references for those interested in learning more of the topic. 

The authors describe the larger picture to which these particular records will add brushstrokes in a previously blank area of canvas:

Sea?level observations are among the longest environmental records due to their relevance for maritime navigation and harbour operation (Pugh and Woodworth, 2014). Some instrumental tide gauge measurements date back to the 18th century, although it took until the mid?20th century before the tide gauge network was truly global and covered most of the world's coastlines (Holgate et al., 2013). However, few century?long sea?level time series are currently available before 1900. This scarcity of long?term sea?level observations, as well as their uneven geographical distribution, is a major challenge for climate studies that address, for example, the quantification of mean sea?level rise at centennial time scales, the accurate assessment of sea?level acceleration or the long?term changes in sea?level extremes that are vital for coastal risk assessments (Holgate et al., 2013).

A brief quote can't do the article justice. There's a lot to learn and enjoy in this work, including some illustrations of tidal measurement equipment dating far back in time. Open access and free to read, here. 

110 Articles

Observations of climate change, effects

Central Himalayan tree-ring isotopes reveal increasing regional heterogeneity and enhancement in ice mass loss since the 1960s
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-95-2021

Decadal Variability in the Impact of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns on the Winter Climate of Northern Russia
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0566.1

Drivers of Pine Island Glacier speed-up between 1996 and 2016
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-113-2021

Exploring extreme warm temperature trends in South Africa: 1960–2016
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03479-8

Recent North Greenland temperature warming and accumulation (preprint)

Seasonality in the Vertical Structure of Long-Term Temperature Trends Over North America
DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2020.1855409

Cold?Season Arctic Amplification Driven by Arctic Ocean?Mediated Seasonal Energy Transfer
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001898

Recent Shift in the Warming of the Southern Oceans Modulated by Decadal Climate Variability
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090889

Increasing synchronous fire danger in forests of the western United States
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091377

Increasingly favourable winter temperature conditions for major crop and forest insect pest species in Switzerland
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108315

Identifying the dominant driving factors of heat waves in the North China Plain
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105458

Spatial diversity of air temperature changes in Poland in 1961–2018
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03487-8

Changes in annual extreme temperature and heat indices in Limpopo province: period 1941–2016
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03511-x

Factors responsible for consecutive deficit Indian monsoons during 2014 and 2015
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03486-9

Phenological trends of multi-taxonomic groups in Latvia, 1970–2018
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-02068-8

Replacement of oyster reefs by mangroves: Unexpected climate?driven ecosystem shifts
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15494

Long?term changes in layered soil temperature based on ground measurements in Jiangsu Province, China

Seasonal temperature trends on the Spanish mainland: a secular study (1916–2015)

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A new early warning indicator of abrupt climate change based on the changing normalized dynamic range

Headline Indicators for Global Climate Monitoring
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-19-0196.1

Mineral magnetism variables as potential indicators of permafrost aggradation and degradation at the southern edge of the permafrost zone, Northeast China

Does ERA5 outperform satellite products in estimating atmospheric downward longwave radiation at the surface?

Power law characteristics of trend analysis in Turkey
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03408-9

Historical tide gauge sea?level observations in Alicante and Santander (Spain) since the 19th century
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/gdj3.112

Assessing the effects of climate variable and timescale selection on uncertainties in dryness/wetness trends in conterminous China

Detection and Attribution of Precipitation Trends Associated with the Poleward Shift of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone using CMIP5 simulations

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects MSWE

A benchmark estimate of the effect of anthropogenic emissions on the ocean surface

A global, multi?product analysis of coastal marine heatwaves: distribution, characteristics and long?term trends

Potential shifts in climate zones under a future global warming scenario using soil moisture classification
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05576-w

Evaluating heat extremes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc4ad

An updated evaluation of the global mean land surface air temperature and surface temperature trends based on CLSAT and CMST

Mapping future droughts under global warming across China: A combined multi-timescale meteorological drought index and SOM-Kmeans approach

Retrospective Analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging of CMIP6 Precipitation in the Nile River Basin
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10503429.1

Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and ENSO Precursor in CMIP5 Models
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0158.1

Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00974-8

Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w

Decoupling of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in a warmer climate
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00966-8

Cold?Season Arctic Amplification Driven by Arctic Ocean?Mediated Seasonal Energy Transfer
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001898

Climate sensitivity increases under higher CO2 levels due to feedback temperature dependence

Role of geostrophic currents in future changes of coastal upwelling in the California Current System
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090768

Caspian Sea and Black Sea response to greenhouse warming in a high?resolution Global Climate Model
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090270

Impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in a Brazilian Savannah watershed
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03477-w

Decomposition of projected summer rainfall change over East Asia based on timeslice experiments
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05602-x

Present-day climate and projected future temperature and precipitation changes in Ecuador
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03483-y

Impact of ocean heat transport on the Arctic sea-ice decline: a model study with EC-Earth3
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05540-8

Modelling hydrological processes under climate change scenarios in the Jemma Sub-basin of upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100272

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Evaluation of the CMIP6 marine subtropical stratocumulus cloud albedo and its controlling factors (preprint)

Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a 1?D Lake Model across Global Lakes
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033417

Sensitivity evaluation of the different physical parameterizations schemes in regional climate model RegCM4.5 for simulation of air temperature and precipitation over North and West of Iran
DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2020.101199

Assessment of CMIP6 in simulating precipitation over arid Central Asia

Evaluation and Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 Model Performance in Simulating the Seasonal Extreme Precipitation in the Western North Pacific and East Asia
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100303

Understanding the signal-to-noise paradox in decadal climate predictability from CMIP5 and an eddying global coupled model
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05621-8

Cryosphere & climate change

Central Himalayan tree-ring isotopes reveal increasing regional heterogeneity and enhancement in ice mass loss since the 1960s
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-95-2021

Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-1296 (preprint)

Drivers of Pine Island Glacier speed-up between 1996 and 2016
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-113-2021

Recent North Greenland temperature warming and accumulation (preprint)

Impact of ocean heat transport on the Arctic sea-ice decline: a model study with EC-Earth3
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05540-8

Mineral magnetism variables as potential indicators of permafrost aggradation and degradation at the southern edge of the permafrost zone, Northeast China

Paleoclimate

PMIP4/CMIP6 last interglacial simulations using three different versions of MIROC: importance of vegetation
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-21-2021

Biology & climate change

Replacement of oyster reefs by mangroves: Unexpected climate?driven ecosystem shifts
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15494

Effects of elevated CO2 and extreme climatic events on forage quality and in vitro rumen fermentation in permanent grassland (preprint)

Genomic evidence of past and future climate-linked loss in a migratory Arctic fish
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00959-7

Tracking biological footprints of climate change using flowering phenology of the geophytes: Pancratium tenuifolium and Scadoxus multiflorus
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-02052-2

Trait-Based Modeling of Terrestrial Ecosystems: Advances and Challenges Under Global Change
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-020-00168-6

Consequences of climate change on airborne pollen in Bavaria, Central Europe
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01729-z

Phenological trends of multi-taxonomic groups in Latvia, 1970–2018
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-02068-8

Rock glaciers and related cold rocky landforms: overlooked climate refugia for mountain biodiversity
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15510

Climate?driven range shifts reduce persistence of competitors in a perennial plant community

Quantifying thermal exposure for migratory riverine species: Phenology of Chinook salmon populations predicts thermal stress
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15450

Multispecies justice: Climate?just futures with, for and beyond humans
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.699

Microclimates hold the key to spatial forest planning under climate change: cyanolichens in temperate rainforest

Ocean acidification locks algal communities in a species?poor early successional stage

Wild bees as winners and losers: Relative impacts of landscape composition, quality, and climate

Predator presence and recent climatic warming raise body temperatures of island lizards
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13671

Common?garden experiment reveals clinal trends of bud phenology in black spruce populations from a latitudinal gradient in the boreal forest
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13582

High?level rather than low?level warming destabilizes plant community biomass production
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13583

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Advancing on large-scale trends of apparent organic matter reactivity in marine sediments and patterns of benthic carbon transformation
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-435 (preprint)

High-resolution induced polarization imaging of biogeochemical carbon-turnover hot spots in a peatland
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-438 (preprint)

Simulating measurable ecosystem carbon and nitrogen dynamics with the mechanistically-defined MEMS 2.0 model
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-493 (preprint)

Estimating 2010–2015 Anthropogenic and Natural Methane Emissions in Canada using ECCC Surface and GOSAT Satellite Observations
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-1195 (preprint)

Carbon balance of a Finnish bog: temporal variability and limiting factors
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-488 (preprint)

Ecosystem?Atmosphere Exchange of CO2, Water and Energy in a Basin Mangrove of the Northeastern Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula

Isotopic branchpoints: linkages and efficiencies in carbon and water budgets
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020jg006043

Carbon Dioxide Fluxes of a Young Deciduous Afforestation Under the Influence of Seasonal Precipitation Patterns and Frequent Typhoon Occurrence
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005996

Estimating greenhouse gas emissions from peat combustion in wildfires on Indonesian peatlands, and their uncertainty
DOI: 10.1029/2019gb006218

Predictable variations of the carbon sinks and atmospheric CO2 growth in a multi?model framework
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10504292.1

Long?term, amplified responses of soil organic carbon to nitrogen addition worldwide
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15489

Data?driven estimates of global litter production imply slower vegetation carbon turnover

Estimating the carbon storage potential and greenhouse gas emissions of French arable cropland using high?resolution modeling

Spartina alterniflora invasion controls organic carbon stocks in coastal marsh and mangrove soils across tropics and subtropics

Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint on CO 2 emissions: an empirical evidence from Pakistan

Quantifying carbon flows in Switzerland: top-down meets bottom-up modelling
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abcdd5

Combined carbon flows through detritus, microbes, and animals in reference and experimentally enriched stream ecosystems
DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3279

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Efficient carbon dioxide hydrogenation to formic acid with buffering ionic liquids
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20291-0

Increased carbon capture by a silicate-treated forested watershed affected by acid deposition
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-288

Additional carbon inputs to reach a 4 per 1000 objective in Europe: feasibility and projected impacts of climate change based on Century simulations of long-term arable experiments (preprint)

Extensive urban green roof shows consistent annual net uptake of carbon as documented by five years of eddy?covariance flux measurements
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005879

Carbon Dioxide Fluxes of a Young Deciduous Afforestation Under the Influence of Seasonal Precipitation Patterns and Frequent Typhoon Occurrence
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005996

Geoengineering climate

Demonstration of a Remotely Piloted Atmospheric Measurement and Charge Release Platform for Geoengineering
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jtech-d-20-0092.1

Black carbon

Radiative forcing of black carbon in seasonal snow of wintertime based on remote sensing over Xinjiang, China

Aerosols

Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-1296 (preprint)

Climate change communications & cognition

Seasonal Calendars Enhance Climate Communication in the Pacific
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-20-0035.1

Elite Company: Sourcing Trends in 2014–2017 Prestige Press Climate Change Editorials
DOI: 10.1080/17524032.2020.1866635

Farmers' perception on combined climatic and market risks and their adaptive behaviors: a case in Shandong Province of China
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01198-8

The Fifth Estate: Analyzing Climate Change Punditry in the Zimbabwean Newspaper Columns

Agronomy & climate change

Climate change and high-altitude food security: a small-scale study from the Karnali region in Nepal
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2020.1855099

Climate change adaptation strategies, farm performance and poverty reduction among smallholder farming households in Ghana
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2020.1860884

Increasingly favourable winter temperature conditions for major crop and forest insect pest species in Switzerland
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108315

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

Influence of a pilot carbon trading policy on enterprises’ low-carbon innovation in China
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1864268

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Impacts of California’s climate-relevant land use policy scenarios on terrestrial carbon emissions (CO 2 and CH 4 ) and wildfire risk

Carbon dioxide mitigation co-effect analysis of clean air policies: lessons and perspectives in China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd215

Acceptance of climate-oriented policy measures under the COVID-19 crisis: an empirical analysis for Germany
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1864269

Climate justice and rights-based litigation in a post-Paris world
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1867047

Upward-scaling tipping cascades to meet climate goals: plausible grounds for hope
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1870097

Climate change impacts on human health

Climate change and high-altitude food security: a small-scale study from the Karnali region in Nepal
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2020.1855099

Technological opportunities for sensing of the health effects of weather and climate change: a state-of-the-art-review
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-02063-z

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

The political complexity of coastal flood risk reduction: lessons for climate adaptation public works in the U.S.
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10502705.3

Farmers' perception on combined climatic and market risks and their adaptive behaviors: a case in Shandong Province of China
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01198-8

Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh of Assessing Climate Hazard-related Loss and Damage and State of Adaptive Capacity to Address them
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100273

Climate change impacts on human culture

Climate change impacts on renewable energy supply
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00949-9

Consequences of climate change on airborne pollen in Bavaria, Central Europe
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01729-z

Tourism climatology: past, present, and future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-02070-0

Impacts of multiple stressors on mountain communities: Insights from an agent-based model of a Nepalese village
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102203

Livelihood vulnerability to climate change in the mountains of Northern Vietnam: comparing the Hmong and the Dzao ethnic minority populations
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01221-y

Other

Orbital forcing strongly influences seasonal temperature trends during the last millennium
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088776

Climate Impacts of COVID?19 Induced Emission Changes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091805

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Headline Indicators for Global Climate Monitoring
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-19-0196.1

Opinion: Gigacity – a source of problems or the new way to sustainable development
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.3188/szf.2005.0052 (preprint)

Climate change, slow onset events and human mobility: reviewing the evidence
DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2020.11.007

 


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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. As it is the journal's decision to do so, we respect that and include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Articles are presented with a title link via the original publisher URL so as to preserve provenance information, and when (usually) available, a more permanent DOI link. When a publicly accessible PDF version of an article is found, a direct link is provided. 

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Journals covered

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