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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

Recommended supplemental reading:

Renewables will give more people access to electricity than coal, says IEA by Simon Evans, Carbon Brief, Oct 19, 2017

Bob Loblaw at 02:16 AM on 21 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

NorrisM:

I think we disagree on a lot more than you are letting on.

"Theoretical issues" is a very poor alternate phrasing for "uncertainties". I think our difference is that I want to include a larger range of SSC in planning, because I do not want to restrict our plans to hoping that costs will be on the low side. You appear to only want to deal with the "high probability, high impact" part of the risk management matrix, so please explain what you see as our differences a little more clearly.

As for who pays for the costs of rising sea levels, which of the following do you disagree with?

Global warming from fossil fuel burning causes increased sea levels - best estimate is about 1m by 2100 (might be less, might be a lot more) under the IPCC moderate CO2 emissions scenarios.
Rising sea level of that quantity represents a major impact with high costs for a very large population around the world.
Benefits of burning fossil fuels largely accumulate with those that produce or burn them, whether they live close to sea level or not.
Impacts of sea level rise affect people/places close to sea level, whether they burn fossil fuels or not.
Rich countries can mitigate some impacts through expensive construction or protection measures.
Poor countries can't do much but run away.
Costs borne by people at sea level that did not benefit from the consumption of fossil fuels elsewhere represents an economic externality in the use of fossil fuels.
Saying "tough $#!^; I don't care about other people that live in poor counties near sea level. I just want cheap gas for my Hummer" is not playing nice in the global sandbox.

The US is only part of the world. And people can avoid paying large amounts in carbon taxes by choosing alternatives - and alternatives are growing rapidly. You seem to want to appease the people that think like #8 on my list (well, they often actually start their denial with #1, but that is another story).

The ideal situation with a carbon tax, is that eventually everyone mostly avoids it because they can choose to not use fossil fuels - because by removing the economic externalities we have properly included the Total Cost of Ownership, and people will make the lower-cost choice and industry will find a way to provide it.

The taxes that go to relief efforts in Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico eventually have to be paid. The post that we are commenting on (well, the moderators haven't told us to go elsewhere yet) is pointing out that people in the US are slowing shifting to realizing that this shift in economic priorities is valuable.

Bob Loblaw at 01:37 AM on 21 October 2017

The F13 files, part 1 - the copy/paste job

Derek:

Geothermal heat flow is, on average, pretty small. It is tiny compared to the radiative forcing from added CO2. To quote this Wikipedia page:

Mean heat flow is 65 mW/m2 over continental crust and 101 mW/m2 over oceanic crust. This is 0.087 watt/square meter on average (0.03 percent of solar power absorbed by the Earth[15] ), but is much more concentrated in areas where thermal energy is transported toward the crust by convection such as along mid-ocean ridges and mantle plumes.

To contribute to global warming, you would have to have a significant increase in this quantity - like 10x more globally-averaged, which means probably 1000s time more in local areas. It ain't happening.

[I would try to defend classifying "geographers", as that is my background, buit "geographer" varies an awful lot and some of them are awfully ignorant on climate - such as TIm Ball.]

Eclectic at 00:46 AM on 21 October 2017

The F13 files, part 1 - the copy/paste job

Derek @10 , yes , thanks , and your point is an important one about cost-effective use of that finite resource [time]. And it very likely is correct that your own time is better spent in "raising" the younger cohorts to be more resistant to the BS which is swallowed by that substantial minority of oldies we know as Denialists — and more resistant through better critical thinking as well as through greater insight into their own tendencies toward motivated reasoning (etc).

Still, there are millions of scientific-minded citizens — and with a great diversity of interests . . . so it is not unreasonable for some percentage of them to give part of their time to "wrestle with the alligators" right now, while teachers such as yourself tackle the longer term plan of "swamp-drainage". [Please excuse the currently over-used analogy!] So I fully support Ari Jokimaki & his colleagues in their actions here.

On a side-note, being your mention of Global Warming from mid-ocean ridge warming : I must say that even I as a non-seismologist, can see that that particular argument has more holes in it than does Swiss cheese. Yet the Denialists will grasp at every straw they can see, despite all those straws being mutually contradictory.

And on the pressure-temperature thing, I have a salient memory (from my childhood) of my grandfather's extensive library containing a science book [copyrighted 1893, if I recall properly] which declared that the scientists had calculated that the Sun's output of heat was produced by the mechanism of gravitational collapse. The scientists opined that the Sun's diameter was shrinking by around 200 feet per year. (And as has been mentioned elsewhere, the discrepancy with terrestrial geology was not addressed.)

MODERATORS : I am wondering if you would consider merging the comments columns for The F13 files Parts 1-4 . There may be enough commonality & overlap, to justify having all comments in a single thread.

Derek at 23:17 PM on 20 October 2017

The F13 files, part 1 - the copy/paste job

Thanks @4 Eclectic and @5 Bob. Eclectic, I was actually referring to a paper I read where a geographer suggested an increase in seismicity at a mid-ocean ridge meant that there was increased heat flow into the oceans, which was in turn causing the oceans and atmosphere to warm. I'm a seismologist, and the seismology part of the paper seemed pretty poorly done. But as the link Bob posted shows, maybe this is not the best use of my time--probably better to be teaching my students how to be better critical thinkers!

Eclectic at 15:05 PM on 20 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

NorrisM @112 , your assistance please!

A link, please — I have not managed to find the source of journalist Michael Miersch's comments that [allegedly] "Germany's green energy transition is destroying vaste swathes of nature ... while much of the countryside is transformed into industrial parks."

And is his comment a sober & factual assessment, or the raving hyperbole by what the Germans call ein Spinner [= a nutcase] ?

( The latter "case" seems much more likely, if he was someone called in to address a meeting of the GWPF. )

All I have found about journalist Miersch, is that recently a German court has decided that he has been lying to his reading public (in his advocacy of false & misleading information about climate matters — in other words he has been lying about the science of Global Warming. It sounds like the court felt his wish for journalistic freedom of expression did not outweigh his untruthfulness. ) .

I must say that it is a great pity that the Anglophone courts do not similarly take action against the many liars in the Anglophone press, in connection with both the Holocaust deniers and the AGW deniers.

Eclectic at 12:25 PM on 20 October 2017

The F13 files, part 4 - dealing with Elsevier

A frustrating experience for Ari & co-workers. "Whistleblowing" should not have to be this difficult, nor be met with multiple layers of resistance.

Interesting that a tiny group of engineers (from Cyprus) should choose to publish a paper with so many and so egregious falsehoods on a highly-important topic in a field well outside their apparent area of expertise.

As the cliched questions often go: "Was alcohol involved?" / "Was money involved?"

The response from the lead author also strongly implies a lack of intellectual honesty, on top of the major falsehoods of the article itself. But all this is in accordance with the anti-science attitude of climate-science deniers.

More worrying is the inactivity of the Journal Editor-in-Chief, in showing an uninterest in the proper performance of his editorial duties. Granted, he himself is an engineer rather than a climate scientist, and is doubtless busy with his engineering day job — but he has permitted this "climate science" article to be published in his Journal. And one might reasonably suspect that he sent it to referees who were engineers rather than those with a more climatological level of appropriate knowledge. And the upshot is that he seems almost passive-aggressive in his desire to give the "brush-off" to the well-expressed scientific complaint/critique provided to him. He deserves censure (perhaps from the N.A.S.? Or would that "cut no ice" with an engineer? )

Sad also, that the Elsevier administation has seemingly shown a less-than-assiduous effort to correct the situation. In the scientific scene, Elsevier must paint with a very broad brush, and possibly they are too big to figure they have a duty to correct a single paper, even an atrociously bad one like this case. But not a praiseworthy attitude on their part. Nevertheless, they are in the business of "delivering" science — not clothespegs — and they have a duty to do considerably better.

I would be interested to hear opinions on "where to go next".

michael sweet at 10:07 AM on 20 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

Norrism:

Nuclear often introduces endless debate. Supporters of nuclear and opponents can never agree on what data to use.

This article by Derek Abbott, a widely respected engineer, gives 13 reasons why nuclear is completely impractical. I am not aware of any attempt by nuclear supporters to counter these arguments in a peer reviewed study. They generally make some vague statement about Sweden and Franace (which are both switching to renewable energy and decomissioning nuclear plants) and ignore the fact that Nuclear is dying. Since Abbotts arguments have not been countered it stands to reason that they are accepted by most scientists.

Nuclear is a failed technology. Its remaining proponents are desperate to generate interest in a dead horse. It has nothing to do with regulations, nuclear is too expensive. Abbott suggests many additional reasons why it is a waste of money to pursue nuclear. Current nuclear projects under construction in the West are bankrupting the builders and have been described as "unbuildable" by the engineers supervising the build.

NorrisM at 09:04 AM on 20 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

Bob Loblaw @ 107 and 108

At least I now understand your position. In many ways it is not dissimilar to mine leaving aside the question of how much time we have to respond to AGW.

I suspect the biggest difference between us is that is that you are dealing with theoretical issues of what should be inputted into a carbon tax and whether the developed countries should pay for the costs of rising sea levels in the rest of the world (I completely agree on your cap and trade comments). You are talking about what should logically be included (and who should pay) and I am talking about what is and is not politically realistic in the United States today and the foreseeable future given the existing Republican administration. Perhaps even on this we agree because you do propose a low number to start with.

I am just not confident that there is any realistic chance of increasing the "low number" carbon tax (even if I agreed with increasing it beyond pollution costs) without suffering a major backlash when the American public and business finds out what a large carbon tax would mean to them in costs let alone what the brave new world looks like visually. On that note, Michael Miersch, the Director of the German Wildlife Foundation is now delivering that message of what it looks like in Germany to the British public in a speaking engagement. If the GWPF website summary of his position is correct it is something like this:

"Germany's green energy transition is destroying vast swathes of nature, agricultural lands and forests. In the name of climate policy, rare birds and endangered species are being killed while much of the countryside is transformed into industrial parks."

These are some of the "unintended consequences" that Karl Popper talks about. Perhaps Germany will prove to be the testing ground while the rest of the world waits for a US Democratic President and Congress.

I think a better way to approach the American public is with a carbon tax that is rationalized based on pollution costs and then present them with a cost effective method of switching to solar and wind power. That is why my focus has shifted to costs of implementation of such a system. Whether there are viable storage systems for VRE (see discussion above) is obviously a critical issue.

I still am very suspect of whether the US public would sign on to wind farms over even 6% of the continental US but that is for another day. A quick look at Clack suggests the wind farms would be far away from populated areas. I want to spend more time on why nuclear is so out of the question when both Sweden and France implemented nuclear power for 80% of their power generation over a very short time. What went wrong? I suspect we are talking about massive delays from political interference reflected in massive regulations and time delays. Could we see Trump start to promote nuclear power? Those regulatory delays might start to disappear. But again, that is for another time.

NorrisM at 08:18 AM on 20 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

michael sweet @105 and 106

Thanks very much. I have now printed (and paid for) the MacDonald, Clack January 2016 paper. I thought I had got onto that website but when I searched "Clack" I only came up with other "Clacks" (no pun intended).

I am looking forward to digesting it when I have time. Given the cost, I have gone with the Clack paper, if only because Clack has some credibility in my mind because he and his associates were prepared to criticize a fellow scientist. I have yet to read the criticisms of the Clack criticism but I certainly plan to do so.

If hear your comment regarding how many of the 21 scientists actually contributed to the paper and your criticism of these others adding their names but it does tell you that they must strongly agree with the contents of the paper. But again, thanks very much.

Based upon your other comments above, your references to liquid electrofuel as a storage method means that you do not agree with the statement made in that paper:

"There are no electric storage systems available today that can affordably and dependably store the vast amounts of energy needed over weeks to reliably satisfy demand using expanded wind and solar power generation alone. These facts have led many US and global energy system analyses (1–10) to recognize the importance of a broad portfolio of electricity generation technologies, including sources that can be dispatched when needed."

That certainly that was my "layman" understanding because battery technology had not progressed as hoped. My "battery" information is from a Foreign Affairs article perhaps 2 years ago. There was no reference at that time to other storage methods that could replace battery storage. Notwithstanding its name "Foreign Affairs" publishes a great number of articles beyond foreign affairs. It has become my "go to source" for keeping up on most things in the world (even has climate change articles) since a number of times I have just given up on The Economist simply because of information overload.

nigelj at 08:10 AM on 20 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

A carbon tax seems the most transparent option, and should indeed start low but be ramped up quickly. But it can always be adjusted according to circumstances. I detect the conservative (Norris) versus liberal mindset. This is caution versus get on and do something, and both viewpoints are understandable, and its just not that hard to reconcile the differences. Its always best to do something and get started, but no tax is frozen in time and can be adjusted either up or down according to circumstances, provided its principles based and not pandering to lobby groups.

Some predictions (google Tony Seba) have uptake of electric cars being faster than predicted and he might be at least partly right. If that proved to be the case a carbon tax on petrol could be phased down or frozen, and dividends directed away from subsidies on electric cars to other things. Its got to be an ongoing process.

nigelj at 07:37 AM on 20 October 2017

The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Bob Loblaw

Yes lines networks are natural monopolies and this always has the risk of abuse of power and over charging for services. The only real answer is legislative oversight from a strong and ethically minded government acting for the public good.

In Auckland NZ it works roughly like this. The lines company is Vector a normal profit making enterprise but most of its shares are owned by the AECT which is a tust that operates on behalf of consumers to get all consumers a good deal. It would be most unlikely to rort people with some fee. Dividends are returned to all electricity consumers. I believe AECT would have a code of principles on the public good, but I'm not certain.

Theres no problem in "theory" with separate generators competing on such a network and it can work, but its hard work. Basically electricity is one big naturally integrated system, so to break it down into separate competing companies, and a separate lines network, can be problematic at all levels, and any efficiencies are mainly at the administrative end and are somewhat limited. It needs an awful lot of market rules, spot pricing systems, and we have had enormous problems getting the balance right, and market operating properly. Nobody is really in charge as such and this is half the problem although, the lines companies have to kind of hold the whole ship together ultimately.

Im still a bit scpetical of the whole thing. Our power industry seemed to work fine when it was one big integrated government agency, but it was broken up in the name of free market economics, but its been a turbulent ride.

nigelj at 06:31 AM on 20 October 2017

The F13 files, part 2 - the content analysis

Good article, and we have a very long list of troubling problems. However I disagree that any are minor problems. They are all quite severe really, and they also add up. You have serious problems and very serious problems!

I don't understand how such a study got through peer review. Various authorities say the purpose of peer review is as follows. I hasten to add I'm not a scientist, but I do have some knowledge of the issue through work etc.

"Peer review methods are employed to maintain standards of quality, improve performance, and provide credibility."

"The process is designed to prevent dissemination of irrelevant findings, unwarranted claims, unacceptable interpretations, and personal views. It relies on colleagues that review one another’s work and make an informed decision about whether it is legitimate, and adds to the large dialogue or findings in the field. "

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peer_review

teachingcommons.cdl.edu/cdip/facultyresearch/Definitionandpurposeofpeerreview.html

Surely the F13 paper is skating on thin ice? It appears to fall short of these criteria or is borderline. This makes me wonder if it got through in an attempt to at least try to be "seen" to publish sceptical studies to give the sceptics a chance, and create a sort of fake balance. Maybe its fear if no or very few sceptical studies were published, the public would be suspicious or annoyed. How far is it proper to take all this?

Bob Loblaw at 02:03 AM on 20 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

Note: in comment 107, I should be abbreviating Representative Concentration Pathways as RCPs, not RPCs.

Bob Loblaw at 01:59 AM on 20 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

In my previous comment, I referred to Risk Management. Risk Management is generally defined as the process by which you incorporate uncertainty into planning.

Risks are things that might happen. When a risk happens, it becomes an event, and you should have a plan for how you will react to that event.
Risks can be positive or negative. The risk that your house burns down is clearly negative. The risk that an unknown relative dies and leaves you $1M in her estate is positive.

We often only think in terms of negative risks. Once a risk is identified (and climate change is definitely a barrel full of risk issues), you want to assess it on two scales:

What is the probability? Almost certain? Likely? Possible? Unlikely? This will affect the resources we wish to apply to the issue.
What is the potential impact? Negligible? Small? Moderate? Severe? This will affect the resources that we will have to put into it if it happens.

Usually, Risk Management will place risks into a matrix with these two scales. Usually, any moderate to severe impact risk needs active management, even if the likelihood is small.

Risk Management can use several techniques:

Reduce the risk, by taking actions that make it less likely to happen. (Emit less CO2.)
Reduce the potential impact. (Build sea walls, move cities away from coasts, upgrade infrastructure to mitigate damage from severe weather, breed drought-resistant crops.)
Transfer the risk to someone else. (Let the undeveloped world suffer while we live the high life.) Not a moral option, IMHO, and not an option at all if we consider ourselves to be part of a global community (there is no "them", just "we").
Just let it all happen and hope we can fix the mess later on (our current path, for the most part). Often a reasonable option for low risk, low impact issues (of which climate change is not one).

IMHO, it is not acceptable to decide that we will only deal with risks that are almost certain or just highly likely. At the extreme high end of the IPCC possible outcomes, we are looking at events that would carry very high costs, even if these risks are unlikely to occur. We need to make sure these don't happen, if we can.

IMHO, many of the arguments against strong action fall into three, non-exclusive, areas:

The risks are very low. ("It's all a hoax".)
The impacts are very low. ("CO2 is plant food." "Warming is beneficial").
The costs of taking action are extremely high ("You will destroy the economy").

Each of these arguments consist of looking at a range of possibilities and picking a single value from one end of the range that most suits the individual's preferred course of action - Business As Usual. It is Bad Risk Management.

Bob Loblaw at 01:21 AM on 20 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

NorrisM has asked @ 98 "Could you simply define what you would expect to have included in a US carbon tax? It would be helpful for you to also come up with a price per tonne of CO2."

I have not done so, for the simple reason that I do not think that this is a problem that can be summarized using a single number. I will try to explain why.

First of all, my background is climatology, not economics or policy. I have experience developing, using, and applying microclimate models. A general principle used in such work, which I think has broader applicabilty, is "sensitivity analysis". A model requires inputs, and these affect outputs. Sensitivity analysis say "if I alter this input, how does that change the output?". We hopefully can obtain independent measurements of the required inputs - e.g., solar radiation, heat capacity of water, etc. - but all inputs have uncertainty. Two fundament results of this are:

if the uncertainty in the input has negligible effect on the output, then it is not a concern. This obviously depends on the output that I am interested in. Different applications may use different outputs, and therefore have different concerns about the uncertainty associated with different inputs.
if the uncertainty in the input has a large effect on the output I am interested in, then I have two choices: try to get a better measurement of the input (reduce uncertainty), or accept that the output also has a range of uncertainty and consider that range in subsequent analysis.

Two examples from the CO2 problem WRT climate modelling:

As input, future atmospheric CO2 expectations depend on many non-climate issues, with a range of possible values. The IPCC handles this by looking at several Representative Concentration Pathways (RPCs) - different scenarios used in running climate models.
As output, different models show different amounts of warming from the same CO2 values (RPCs). The IPCC handles this by talking about a range of warming for 2xCO2 (the "Climate Sensitivity").

Taking any single value from a known range of probabilities is a mistake. Any value within that range may or may not be what happens, and there is a probability that the eventual output will be within a certain range.

Handling that uncertainty is a problem in Risk Management. I will expand on that in a follow-up comment.

Now, to the rhealm of personal opinion, I think a carbon tax in the fee-and-dividence class is a better choice than Cap-and-Trade, as it is more predictable for business (less uncertain) WRT to future costs, and it is probably harder to game (either by a business sector or government).

I think that any carbon tax needs to start low to avoid sudden shocks on the economy, but needs to rise fairly rapidly to a level that realistically represents most, if not all, externalized carbon costs.

There is uncertainty in the "true" SSC. There is also uncertainty in how the economy (and society) will respond to any changes such as a carbon tax. This will require monitoring and probably adjustment as time goes on.

But it needs to start now, not decades later after we have waited to reduce uncertainty. We have already lost decades of time since the science of climate became clear, and the longer we wait, the more it is going to hurt and the faster we will have to react. (cf. the window glass example.)

Bob Loblaw at 23:14 PM on 19 October 2017

The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

The process of providing the consumer with electricity has three major sources of costs:

Generating the electricity and placing it on the grid.
Transporting it across the grid to the consumer (generally called "transmission and distribution", or T&D)
The losses during the T&D process - the difference between what the consumer's meter says came into the consumer's house or business, and what the generation company's meter says it put onto the grid. The generation company wants to get paid for everything it sent out, and the consumer wants to pay only for what comes out the end.

In monopoly situations where the same company deals with all costs, they can shift the charges to suit their goals - e.g., increase consumption charges to subsidize connection fees in difficult-to-service areas, or crank up connection fees to get lots of money from people that found ways to minimize consumption, etc.

T&D is a natural monopoly. Who wants 8 sets of wires running down the street so that 8 different T&D companies can compete for your business?

As governments move to structuring the industry so that generation is a different company from T&D - hopefully creating competition in the generation sector - then gaming the system so that Someone Else has to bear the costs of your part of the business becomes an increasingly attractive business (or political) strategy.

Add storage to the mix (generator and consumer want to produce and consume at different times), and finding a way for Someone Else to pay can be very lucrative.

Ken in Oz at 19:57 PM on 19 October 2017

CliFi – A new way to talk about climate change

Jim @2 - yes, I found "The Water Knife" novel terrifying in it's plausibility and sharply pointed in it's portrayal of fellow Americans as the new wave of unwanted refugees the fences and walls and armed militias were determined to keep out. Only one criticism - his treatment of the desert wildlife as somehow well adapted and likely to survive; I think much of that wildlife already exists close to the limits of survival even before addition of higher temperatures and new extremes of drought.

Eclectic at 19:33 PM on 19 October 2017

The F13 files, part 1 - the copy/paste job

BaerbelW @8 , thank you for that !

How embarrassing. I saw: October 17th, Part 1 of a series . . . etc etc

I must remember that the pretty blue text can be clicked on !

Please excuse my Kopffurz (if that's the correct word for my idiocy).

I shall get reading.

nigelj at 17:51 PM on 19 October 2017

The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Lacklan @13, I dont think low income people will be too happy with high power prices somehow. There are probably better ways of incentivising efficiency.

That's interesting about connection fees. By distribution companies I assume it's either the retailer or lines companies? Either way, as a government owned soe making a profit and I assume having at least a partial monopoly this is a crazy formula for rorting the consumer.

But as you say theres a problem of investment. This is caused by poor planning in turn traced to climate denial combined with partisan political bickering and disunity. Britian has a central agency separate from government dealing with electricity, a great idea that has removed politics as much as possible and it has worked.

BaerbelW at 14:23 PM on 19 October 2017

The F13 files, part 1 - the copy/paste job

Eclectic @4 - you can already read the other three articles which are linked from this one. They just don't yet show up on the homepage, but will in due course.

Lachlan at 13:42 PM on 19 October 2017

The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

nigelj, the problem in Australia isn't so much the price of electricity. A high per-kWh price at least encourages responsible consumption.

The biggest problem is that the flat connection fee is ridiculously high, in at least some states. That problem is particularly bad in states with government-owned for-profit distribution companies, which allowed for blame-shifting. This particular failure has nothing to do with climate denial.

Still, I agree that the lack of a carbon price has caused a shortfall of investment in generation too, which may bite us this summer.

Lachlan at 13:37 PM on 19 October 2017

The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Jenna, Australia's National Energy Guarantee is almost inconsequential compared with the proposed Carmichael mine that Adani is proposing for the Gallilee Basin.

I heard someone say that the debate about a carbon price in Australia is irrelevant as long as Australia is a major coal exporter — which is about right. (I'm not saying we should accept the NEG, just that stopping Adani is a higher priority.)

Lachlan at 13:16 PM on 19 October 2017

The F13 files, part 1 - the copy/paste job

I forgot to mention: in many universities, plagiarism is grounds for explusion, not just failing.

Lachlan at 13:15 PM on 19 October 2017

The F13 files, part 1 - the copy/paste job

I really like the "pressure heating" theory. As I recall, it says that heating is due to the effect of gravity on the atmosphere — i.e., "the sky is falling". They accuse climate "alarmists" of being Chicken Licken saying that the sky is falling, and I was tickled pink to see some deniers actually claiming that heating is literally because the sky is falling.

(Please correct me if I'm wrong.)

Wol at 12:44 PM on 19 October 2017

The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

@3:cjones1

>>Renewables remain a viable alternative in off grid locations, but without subsidies will still have to compete on the open market.<<

Read up about the externalities of coal - ie., the massive economic subsidies that the oil and gas industries receive that are nowhere to be seen on any balance sheet except in government departments.

Start charging the FF industry for the costs of health, restitution of the environment, lost water catchments etc etc and the renewables' subsidies actually look quite manageable.

Better still, cut ALL subsidies and see how it pans out.

nigelj at 11:12 AM on 19 October 2017

The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Singleton Engineer, its just ridiculous that Australia cant sort out a simple set of goals for clean energy. Plenty of other countries have no problem.

Australia also has among the highest electricity prices going, despite abundant wind and solar potential as well as traditional energy. This is just gobsmackingly dumb.

Its a political and planning failure, not a failure of technology or renewable energy. Its a failure of climate denialism and a failure to come up with a cohesive plan and set of goals.

Check for yourself: Source: Google search: "Electricty mess in Australia" The first 20 articles or so will give you the background.

SingletonEngineer at 10:46 AM on 19 October 2017

The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Jenna, the Australian government's plan is little more than an outline of a possible plan - which does not yet exist. It is all of 8 pages long and lacks modelling or defined goals, although they will presumably follow via regulation.

It also carries many of the features of a carbon intensity scheme, to be administered by electricity retailers.

It also requires as-yet-undrafted legislation.

In summary, it is a nothing, going nowhere fast and with slim chance of enactment. Until modelling and proposed legislation are available, analysis is impossible - whether for or against, environmental or financial. Its final shape may well be nowhere near the current proposal.

Bob Loblaw at 09:50 AM on 19 October 2017

The F13 files, part 1 - the copy/paste job

Derek:

Scientific journals are rarely interested in papers that just point out errors in other papers. You will occasionally see "Comment on..." short contributions, but not often.

Scientists also don't get much credit for publishing such critiques - career advancement is based on new research, not pointing out that junk was published that ignored vast quantities of old research and got many basic things wrong.

...but it does happen. Read this RealClimate post from a couple of years ago that tells the sorty of publishing such a paper.

Let's Learn From Mistakes

Eclectic at 08:32 AM on 19 October 2017

The F13 files, part 1 - the copy/paste job

Derek, your question may be a little premature. Let's see more on the details of that paper. Valid "denier literature" is rarer than rocking-horse poo. But anything which shows even a degree of verisimilitude, is like a sticking-up nail that ought to be hammered down. (Unless the "literature" appears in Shonksville extremist publications like Journal of American Physicians & Surgeons ~ where Richard Lindzen has published [more a rant than a paper]).

I keenly look forward to Ari Jokimaki's next instalment.

(My apologies, Ari — for I haven't discovered how to correctly make the umlaut in your surname. )

nigelj at 08:07 AM on 19 October 2017

CliFi – A new way to talk about climate change

I do however recommend "Adventures in the Anthropocene, by Gaia Vince" which is factual account of environmental issues and climate impacts, but told through the lives of individuals and local communities. This style may appeal to some people.

Jim Eager at 07:36 AM on 19 October 2017

CliFi – A new way to talk about climate change

I highly recommend Paolo Bacigalupi's The Water Knife. It aptly describes how the modern overdelveloped Southwest US will experience what the Anasazi did through the lens of water rights.

michael sweet at 07:28 AM on 19 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

I think this is the paper you wanted.

michael sweet at 07:22 AM on 19 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

Norrism:

Here is another reference (Connolly et al) that documents that the cost of a renewable energy system is low. In this paper the cost of a renewable system for the entire EU is estimated at 10-15% higher than BAU using fossil fuels. They point out that many fossil fuels are imported while renewable energy is generated inside the EU so there are additional financial advantages to renewable energy (about 10 million jobs).

They do not quantitate the advantages of much lower pollution from renewable energy, although we should keep in mind that coal use alone kills 10-15,000 people each year in the USA alone and causes over $40 billion per year in health costs. All those costs would be in addition to not having to import fuel from the Middle East. One meter of sea level rise would flood over $1trillion of real estate in south Florida alone. Many trillion more in the rest of the USA alone.

It is easy to find these types of studies. I used Google Scholar and typed in Jacobson 2015 renewable energy. It currently has about 115 references. I clicked on the cited by papers to get a list of them. Click on the paper to get a copy (usually they are not free, but sometimes they are). Connolly et al was the first one on the list. Most of the rest are additional studies that document that renewable energy is cheaper than fossil fuels. Read several to get more up to date.

Connolly et al does not use any nuclear energy

"due to its economic, environmental, and security concerns. In addition, nuclear power does not fit in a renewable energy system with wind and solar, since it is not very flexible".

Your support of nuclear is opposite to the scientific tide. Even Brave New Climate no longer posts new papers.

You need to figure out how to research this information on your own if you want to be serious. If you want a copy of Clack google his name. Academic persons invariably have a web page and usually have free links to their papers. Google Scholar can help find free papers if you cannot find their web page. Clacks paper will be one of the references to his paper in Google Scholar (Clacks paper is on the list of cited by papers for Jacobson linked above).

The Clack study has been discredited since most of the persons on the paper did no work (only 3 did any work). It is generally considered to be dishonest to list persons who did no work on the paper as authors. You are welcome to refer to a discredited study if you wish, but Jacobson has a much stronger record of honesty. Jacobson's work has stood the test of time over the past 10 years. The huge number of papers citing his work tell you that scientists listen to what Jacobson says. Discounting Jacobson in favor of Clack would be accepting an inferior paper just because it supports your preconceived notions. Jacobson has many more supporting citations which generally tells the story. Connolly et al is an example of a paper that supports Jacobson and contradicts Clack.

Connolly's paper I linked above uses liquid electrofuels as primary energy storage instead of hydrogen. There are existing facilities for these fuels so no storage has to be built. I have never liked Jacobson's use of hydrogen as primary energy storage. Jacobson does not like the pollution caused by electrofuels being burned (and they are less efficient than hydrogen). This shows that the models of renewable energy systems are conservative since whichever method of energy storage ends up superior can be used. Both Jacobson and Connolly use conservative assumptions for renewable energy so the final systems will be lower cost than they have estimated. I note that their cost estimates are not very different even though their systems are very different.

nigelj at 06:16 AM on 19 October 2017

CliFi – A new way to talk about climate change

Personally such a book would drive me nuts. I struggle with historical fiction or anything that mixes fact and fiction. I prefer dry old books full of graphs, photos, tables and charts, or a completly fiction novel like the Tolkein Trilogy. But thats just me.

However I appreciate different people connect to different things and in different ways and such a semi fictional book would be perfect for them. The world is complicated, with deep seated differences between people relating to some things and how they connect, think, imagine, and what switches them on. Of course we have have many basics in common as well, or it would be chaos.

nigelj at 05:49 AM on 19 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

Norris, I also largely agree with what Bob Loblaw is saying, apart from the business of what you admitted to or didnt. I understand how lawyers are trained, I have used enough lawyers for various things.

But I want to reiterate his point "In terms of climate change, experts are warning you to get out of the way (or stop creating the problem)."

This sums it up so poignantly for me . You cant expect the science community to do more. You have to do more to come to the party and be open minded about the issues and find information.

Its natural to have a little healthy scepticism, but its easy for this to go wrong and turn into something irrational, negative, defensive, and self justifying and dogmatic.

nigelj at 05:32 AM on 19 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

Norris M @101

I just dont have time to find peer reviewed assessments of costs of switching to renewable energy right now. Some of this stuff is not easy to follow and full of jargon, and I don't have time to find the right study for you.

What I suggest is the following, which will be more useful to you anyway:

The IEA (International energy agency) says it costs 1% of a countries gdp approx. to convert to renewables, phased in over a reasonable period 20 - 30 years.

I strongly suggest you contact the IEA directly. I'm sure they would be only too happy to provide information, help and answer questions or alternatively point you at whatever information you need.

Or just talk to one of the electricty organisations in your own country.

Just some final notes. The study I gave you does indeed say " £29.46 trillion – but that’s still only 21% of global wealth." It also says further on 1% of gdp, because such a scheme is obviously phased in over time, not all done in one year. But you realise this.

It's just actually not that complicated to calculate. We know Americas (for example) generating capacity in mw's, and how much renewable energy costs in mw's, and that we need about 10% gas fired backup, and approx. 50% transmission lines upgrades over time. Multiple agencies do the maths and keep getting 1% of gdp. Obviously it will vary around this somewhat in individual countries depending on for example how much current supply is renewable or hydro etc. 1% is very easily affordable.

Of course plenty of Americas transmission lines will need to be replaced regardless of renewables, I have read the whole transmission grid is ancient and needs upgrading, and much coal plant only has limited years left, and renewable energy will drop in price further its just a question of how much. And of course you will have inflation in some other things like perhaps copper cables.

But my point is estimates of approx. 1% are if anything pessimistic.

You must realise these sorts of things, you are well educated.

Sea level rise doesn't have to immediately jump to 10mm. You would be aware of accelerating curves, parabolic curves, that sort of thing. Sea level rise has long been predicted to be an accelerating curve, particularly after 2050.

Derek at 05:29 AM on 19 October 2017

The F13 files, part 1 - the copy/paste job

Out of curiosity, what are the advantages and disadvantages to writing a rebuttal paper when shoddy science is used in the denier literature? I realize this is a slightly different case since it involves plagarism, but I hope you all don't mind because it is something I've wondered for awhile.

Bob Loblaw at 00:18 AM on 19 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

NorrisM:

Cut with the histrionics of genuflecting. What I said in comment 79 was "...if you cannot appreciate the difference between what I said in comment #68 and your first paragraph in comment #70..."

Although you apologized with a conditional "if" @75, your latest comment states " So I hardly understand how I have misrepresented your views."

So I finally have a direct answer - no, you cannot appreciate the difference between what I said and how you characterized it. And your apology was not based on an honest realization that you had misrepresented my views. You would have saved us both a lot of time if you had given a direct answer to begin with, instead of avoiding the question.

I will simply repeat what I said in #92: Can you understand how it is difficult to have a discussion with you when you are making incorrect assumptions? Suggestion: ask more questions, make fewer assumptions.

Most of the rest of your comment is a continued repetition of misconceptions and refusal to either read or inability to understand materials that others have point you towards. You continue to use emotion-laden words like "bury our economy". You continue to imply that we have lots of time to decide what to do, when others point to studies that say we need to get going on actions as soon as possible (and that there are many actions that are both technologically feasible and economically favourable now). Complete solutions? No. BUt it is better to start with partial solutions now than to do little or nothing and gamble that a perfect solution will present itself later. Any project plan that includes a dependence on planning breakthroughs is at high risk.

I find it very telling about your mindset when the first response to my falling window glass thought experiment was to deny the physics of falling glass and assume a different physics that allows you to wait before you react. Did you notice that I asked two questions in that experiment?

When do I warn you to get out of the way?, and
When are you justified in taking action?

In terms of climate change, experts are warning you to get out of the way (or stop creating the problem). The action that you are taking is to deny that the problem is urgent, and therefore you are concluding that there is little justification in taking much action now. Your assimilation of information is being strongly biased by that mindset.

NorrisM at 23:49 PM on 18 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

nigelj @97

The references below do not reference specific facts and despite the reference to 29.46 trillion pounds, here is what they have to say as to how much this is going to cost:

"This new infographic by QuidCorner shows that the global cost of switching to renewable energy is high at £29.46 trillion – but that’s still only 21% of global wealth."

Could you point me to some peer reviewed studies on the cost of switching the continental US to wind and solar similar to my same request to BaerbelW?

I have shown that I am prepared to read detailed papers having read on my recent holiday, all of Chapter 9 from the IPCC 2013 assessment on "Evaluation of Climate Models" and all of Chapter 10 of the IPCC 2014 Report on RE and its Costs entitled "Mitigation Potential and Costs".

I have not yet read Jacobson's reply and will not comment further on the Slack June 2017 paper until I have done so. But in the meantime, can you help me locate the Clack study I referenced in my reply to BaerbelW?

NorrisM at 23:36 PM on 18 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

BaerbelW @ 99

Thanks very much. I am aware of this proposal but had not taken the time to actually read the website. I think it makes a lot of sense provided that the level of the proposed carbon tax is something which only levies a charge on carbon for the pollution costs at this time. I am assuming that this website, which is attempting to appeal to Republicans, is proposing to take a position similar to mine that we have to limit this proposed carbon tax to something like 20-30 t/CO2. At that level, I can live with the imposition of a duty on other nations which do not have such a carbon tax.

If you have any sources of peer reviewed papers that have considered the conversion of the continental US to wind and solar power combined with FF/hydro/nuclear for base load generation I would be very appreciative.

I have tried to access a Clack et al paper on Nat Clim Chang (referenced in a June 2017 paper on the Jacobson study) but have not been successful. I have not fully exhausted my search but thought someone on this website would be able to assist.

Eclectic at 21:08 PM on 18 October 2017

There is no consensus

Adrian White @764 , regarding "the laws of history" [your quote] ,

Adrian, you appear to have a very strange and peculiar definition of the meaning of the word "laws".

By failing to use English words in a standard English sense, you render your comments rather meaningless. Please re-state (more intelligibly) the ideas you are trying to convey.

(B) Question: Is there a mathematical formula agreed by 97% of biologists, which will describe & predict the processes of Evolution? If so, what is it? If not so — then we must presume that Evolution is false (and a form of Junk Science).

We need better communication from you, please Adrian !

BaerbelW at 20:47 PM on 18 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

Norris @98

Regarding a carbon tax or fee (however you want to call it): have you checked out Citizens' Climate Lobby's suggestion of Carbon Fee and Dividend yet? It shows, how such a fee could be set up without inconveniencing households. You can start reading about it here:

https://citizensclimatelobby.org/basics-carbon-fee-dividend/

There is also the Climate Leadership Council which makes the "Conservative Case for Carbon Dividends":

https://www.clcouncil.org/

You'll find links to a PDF with more information as well as to a TedTalk presentation on that page.

Hope this helps!

Adrian White at 15:55 PM on 18 October 2017

There is no consensus

The laws of physics are not in dispute whereas those of geology are. The laws of physics apply to an infinite number of possible events at any time: geological theories state whether certain events occurred at certain times on this one planet. The laws of history are endlessly debatable. The laws about which there is the greatest certainty are capable of mathematical formulation: those about which there is least certainty are not.
Is there a mathematical formula agreed by the 97% in the matter of global warming according to which the future can be predicted depending on stated variables? If so, what is it?

NorrisM at 14:41 PM on 18 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

Bob Loblaw @ 92

I have no idea why you are asking me to genuflect to you. I thought I had fairly summarized your views on what you wish to get out of a carbon tax but I am at a loss to understand what you think a carbon tax should reflect. So I hardly understand how I have misrepresented your views.

Could you simply define what you would expect to have included in a US carbon tax? It would be helpful for you to also come up with a price per tonne of CO2.

It might also be useful for you to explain how you expect to sell such a high carbon tax to the US public.

Let us get away from analogies for the moment and deal with reality. At the present time sea levels are rising at somewhere around 3 mm/yr (See AR5 WG1 Figure 3.14). Based upon that rate, the sea level in 2100 would have risen an incredible 9.8 inches. For sea levels to rise by 1 metre by 2100 would mean that the sea level rise would have to immediately rise to 12 mm/y and stay at that level for the rest of the century. Even this is not the end of the world. This is not exactly a large glass window frame coming crashing down on you in seconds with no time to react.

But as for your other anology with respect to the purchase of a TV from Walmart. Before we buy the solar and wind package, it might be an idea to check the cables and sound system, I agree. Those would be the cost of a US continental power grid system that can properly support the unique electric current provided by wind and solar power as well as the cost of the back up FF in the form of natural gas power generating plants to provide base load power because this will be needed and has to be built into the costs. Based upon the Slack report, "there are no electric storage systems available today that can affordably and dependably store the vast amounts of energy needed over weeks to reliably satisfy demand using expanded wind and solar power alone."

How can you propose a carbon tax at a level which would bury our economy unless you can point to detailed studies that show that this change to wind and solar power can be achieved at a reasonable cost?

I keep hearing about 1% of GDP as this magical figure but where are the studies? My understanding is that the problems of integrating a wind and solar solution into existing grid systems (let alone a continental wide new grid system) were not built into the models described in Chapter 10 of the IPCC 2014 Report nor was the issue of intermittency of wind and solar taken into account.

Politicians cannot commit the public purse to significant expenditures without having some detailed cost studies. If the IPCC Report I read is all we have then we have a long way to go.

Moderator Response:

[JH] Inflamatory snipped.

It would also be useful for you (and everyone else particpating in a discussion with you) to cease summarizing what another poster said. If you want to challenge a statement made by someone else do so directly without recasting what the other person stated.

nigelj at 14:35 PM on 18 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

NorrisM @96

"Thanks for the reference to this site but I have to say that it seems to be more of a video setting out some simple numbers. Perhaps my browser cannot show everything. "

No Norris. The information below the video in the text showed value of a variety of renewable energy options, and below that along list of source material. Its also easy to check these prices against other sources of prices. I chose this website as its reasonably straightforward, and you complained before about complexity of some sources. Now you complain its too straight forward.

The duty is on you to provide evidence they are somehow wrong. Again you fail to do this, and simply moan about the quoted material. Its not good enough Norris.

NorrisM at 13:26 PM on 18 October 2017

Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

nigelj @ 94

Thanks for the reference to this site but I have to say that it seems to be more of a video setting out some simple numbers. Perhaps my browser cannot show everything. I clicked on the video and got two pages. Not that this makes a material difference but I think they are quoting 29 Trillion pounds not US dollars. I think this would increase the figures by about 30%. But my main problem is that it simply states numbers. I truly wish someone could point me to the a way of getting the two Clack papers on converting the US to 80% solar and wind in the power generation sector. After their paper slamming Jacobson they have a certain amount of credibility. Does not hurt having the NOAA label. I admit I have not yet read the Jacobson response and I promise to do so.

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