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Climate Hustle

References for the Denial101x MOOC

Posted on 29 August 2015 by LarryM, BaerbelW , MichaelK

The EdX MOOC "Denial101x - Making Sense of Climate Science Denial" is fully supported by peer-reviewed research.  This page presents the comprehensive list of references with links to the corresponding papers.  The index below is organized by week and by lecture topic, and there is a corresponding list of MOOC lecture videos and expert interviews.


Week 1  –  Overview of the climate controversy

1.  Consensus of evidence 6.  Dragons of inaction
2.  Consensus of scientists 7.  Ideological bias
3.  Consensus of papers 8.  Manufacturing doubt
4.  Knowledge based consensus 9.  Media balance-as-bias
5.  Vested interests 10. Five characteristics of science denial

Week 2  –  Global warming is happening

1.  Heat build-up 6.  Antarctic land ice vs sea ice
2.  Hot records 7.  Building a robust temperature record
3.  Sea level rise 8.  Heat in the city
4.  Shrinking glaciers 9.  Wavy jet stream
5.  Greenland ice loss 10. Climate change vs global warming

Week 3  –  We are causing global warming

1.  Upsetting the natural balance 6.  Reinforcing feedback
2.  The CO2 rise is man-made 7.  Structure of our atmosphere
3.  Taking up residence 8.  Measuring from space
4.  The greenhouse effect 9.  Daily and yearly cycle
5.  Increasing the greenhouse effect  

Week 4  –  The past tells us about the future

1.  Message from the past 7.  Success stories
2.  The little ice age 8.  Not so successful stories put into context
3.  Ancient CO2 levels 9.  Weather vs climate
4.  Medieval warm period 10. Climate science in the 1970s
5.  Confused decline 11. Future ice age
6.  Principles that models are built on 12. Tendency to underestimate climate impacts

Week 5  –  Impacts of climate change

1.  Climate is sensitive 8.  Overall impacts
2.  Water vapor amplifies warming 9.  Carbon dioxide is a pollutant
3.  The role of clouds in climate change 10. Agricultural impacts
4.  Methane clathrate feedback 11. Extreme weather
5.  Adaptation takes time 12. Heat waves
6.  Polar bears 13. Hurricanes
7.  Ocean acidification  

Week 6  –  Responding to denial

1.  Vocal minority 4.  Sticky science
2.  Worldview backfire effect 5.  Flu shots
3.  Inoculation theory  

 



UPSETTING THE NATURAL BALANCE   [top]

Gavin C. Cawley, On the atmospheric residence time of anthropogenically sourced carbon dioxide, Energy & Fuels, volume 25, number 11, pages 5503–5513, September 2011.  Publishers website, post-print (sets out the conservation of mass argument in more detail).

Raupach, M. R., Canadell, J. G., & Quéré, C. L. (2008). Anthropogenic and biophysical contributions to increasing atmospheric CO 2 growth rate and airborne fraction. Biogeosciences, 5(6), 1601-1613. Link to PDF (conservation of mass analysis shown in figure 1d)

Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., Ephramus, J. J., Eds. Climate Change - The IPCC Scientific Assessment; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, U.K., 1990, pdf (full report).  Section 1.2, particularly subsection 1.2.5 “Evidence that the contemporary Carbon Dioxide Increase is Anthropogenic” on page 14 (page 62 of the pdf).

Archer, D. The Global Carbon Cycle; Princeton Primers in Climate; Princeton University Press, ISBN 978-0-691-14414-6, 2010.

Tyler Volk, “CO2 Rising - The Worlds Greatest Environmental CHallenge”, MIT Press, ISBN 978-0-262-51521-4, 2008.

Ballantyne, A. P., C. B. Alden, J. B. Miller, P. P. Tans, and J. W. C. White, 2012: Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the last 50 years. Nature, 488, 70–72.  Link to paper

Boden, T., G. Marland, and R. Andres, 2011: Global CO2 emissions from fossilfuel burning, cement manufacture, and gas flaring: 1751–2008 (accessed at 2011.11.10). Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U. S. Department of Energy, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge, TN, U.S.A., doi:10.3334/ CDIAC/00001_V2011.  Link to data

Ciais, P., C. Sabine, G. Bala, L. Bopp, V. Brovkin, J. Canadell, A. Chhabra, R. DeFries, J. Galloway, M. Heimann, C. Jones, C. Le Quéré, R.B. Myneni, S. Piao and P. Thornton, 2013: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.  Link to large chapter PDF

Le Quéré, C., et al., 2013: The global carbon budget 1959–2011. Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 165–186.  Link to paper

Le Quéré, C., Moriarty, R., Andrew, R. M., Peters, G. P., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, S. D., Sitch, S., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Boden, T. A., Bopp, L., Bozec, Y., Canadell, J. G., Chini, L. P., Chevallier, F., Cosca, C. E., Harris, I., Hoppema, M., Houghton, R. A., House, J. I., Jain, A. K., Johannessen, T., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Kitidis, V., Klein Goldewijk, K., Koven, C., Landa, C. S., Landschützer, P., Lenton, A., Lima, I. D., Marland, G., Mathis, J. T., Metzl, N., Nojiri, Y., Olsen, A., Ono, T., Peng, S., Peters, W., Pfeil, B., Poulter, B., Raupach, M. R., Regnier, P., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Salisbury, J. E., Schuster, U., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Segschneider, J., Steinhoff, T., Stocker, B. D., Sutton, A. J., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., van der Werf, G. R., Viovy, N., Wang, Y.-P., Wanninkhof, R., Wiltshire, A., and Zeng, N.: Global carbon budget 2014, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47-85, doi:10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015.

THE CO2 RISE IS MAN-MADE   [top]

Alt, J. C., & Teagle, D. A. (1999). The uptake of carbon during alteration of ocean crust. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 63(10), 1527-1535. Link to abstract

Boden, T.A., G. Marland, and R.J. Andres. (2013). Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. doi 10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2013 Link to CDIAC Homepage

Burton, M. R., Sawyer, G. M., & Granieri, D. (2013). Deep carbon emissions from volcanoes. Rev. Mineral. Geochem, 75(1), 323-354. Link to PDF

Dessert, C., Dupré, B., Gaillardet, J., François, L. M., & Allegre, C. J. (2003). Basalt weathering laws and the impact of basalt weathering on the global carbon cycle. Chemical Geology, 202(3), 257-273. Link to PDF

Marty, B., & Tolstikhin, I. N. (1998). CO 2 fluxes from mid-ocean ridges, arcs and plumes. Chemical Geology, 145(3), 233-248. Link to PDF

Pérez, N. M., Hernández, P. A., Padilla, G., Nolasco, D., Barrancos, J., Melían, G., ... & Ibarra, M. (2011). Global CO2 emission from volcanic lakes. Geology, 39(3), 235-238. Link to PDF

TAKING UP RESIDENCE   [top]

Gavin C. Cawley, On the atmospheric residence time of anthropogenically sourced carbon dioxide, Energy & Fuels, volume 25, number 11, pages 5503–5513, September 2011.  Publishers website, post-print

Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., Ephramus, J. J., Eds. Climate Change - The IPCC Scientific Assessment; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, U.K., 1990, pdf (full report).  Section 1.2, particularly subsection 1.2.1 “The Cycle of Carbon in Nature” on page 14 (page 56 of the pdf), which explicitly cautions against confusing the residence (turnover) time with the adjustment time.

Craig, H. (2011). The Natural Distribution of Radiocarbon and the Exchange Time of Carbon Dioxide Between Atmosphere and Sea. Tellus A, 9(1). doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v9i1.9078

Archer, D. and V. Brovkin, 2008: The millennial atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO2. Clim. Change, 90, 283–297. Link to paper

Eby, M., K. Zickfeld, A. Montenegro, D. Archer, K. J. Meissner, and A. J. Weaver, 2009: Lifetime of anthropogenic climate change: Millennial time scales of potential CO2 and surface temperature perturbations. J. Clim., 22, 2501–2511.   Link to PDF

THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT   [top]

Exploring the universe, NASA, http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/starsgalaxies/cobe_background.html, Accessed 15 April 2015.

Mueller, N., Helbert, J., Hashimoto, G. L., Tsang, C. C. C., Erard, S., Piccioni, G., & Drossart, P. (2008). Venus surface thermal emission at 1 μm in VIRTIS imaging observations: Evidence for variation of crust and mantle differentiation conditions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets (1991–2012), 113(E5). Link to paper

Bullock, M. A., & Grinspoon, D. H. (2001). The recent evolution of climate on Venus. Icarus, 150(1), 19-37. Link to PDF

Svedhem, H., Titov, D. V., McCoy, D., Lebreton, J. P., Barabash, S., Bertaux, J. L., ... & Coradini, M. (2007). Venus Express—the first European mission to Venus. Planetary and Space Science, 55(12), 1636-1652. Link to abstract

Stephens, G. L., Li, J., Wild, M., Clayson, C. A., Loeb, N., Kato, S., ... & Andrews, T. (2012). An update on Earth's energy balance in light of the latest global observations. Nature Geoscience, 5(10), 691-696. Link to abstract

Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T., & Kiehl, J. (2009). Earth's global energy budget. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(3), 311-323. Link to PDF

Fixsen, D. J. (2009). The temperature of the cosmic microwave background. The Astrophysical Journal, 707(2), 916. Link to PDF

Tyndall, J. (1885).   Heat: a mode of motion.  D. Appleton.

INCREASING THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT   [top]

Harries, J. E., Brindley, H. E., Sagoo, P. J., & Bantges, R. J. (2001). Increases in greenhouse forcing inferred from the outgoing longwave radiation spectra of the Earth in 1970 and 1997. Nature, 410(6826), 355-357. Link to abstract

Philipona, R., Dürr, B., Marty, C., Ohmura, A., & Wild, M. (2004). Radiative forcing‐measured at Earth's surface‐corroborate the increasing greenhouse effect. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(3). Link to PDF

Feldman, D. R., Collins, W. D., Gero, P. J., Torn, M. S., Mlawer, E. J., & Shippert, T. R. (2015). Observational determination of surface radiative forcing by CO2 from 2000 to 2010. Nature, 519(7543), 339-343.

Tjemkes, S. A., Patterson, T., Rizzi, R., Shephard, M. W., Clough, S. A., Matricardi, M., ... & Knuteson, R. (2003). The ISSWG line-by-line inter-comparison experiment. Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer, 77(4), 433-453. Link to abstract

Ångström, K. (1900). Ueber die Bedeutung des Wasserdampfes und der Kohlensäure bei der Absorption der Erdatmosphäre. Annalen der Physik, 308(12), 720-732 Link to PDF

Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing, IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 8, Table 8.2: http://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf

REINFORCING FEEDBACK   [top]

Shakun, J. D., Clark, P. U., He, F., Marcott, S. A., Mix, A. C., Liu, Z., ... & Bard, E. (2012). Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation. Nature, 484(7392), 49-54. Link to PDF

He, F., Shakun, J. D., Clark, P. U., Carlson, A. E., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., & Kutzbach, J. E. (2013). Northern Hemisphere forcing of Southern Hemisphere climate during the last deglaciation. Nature, 494(7435), 81-85. Link to PDF

Feulner, G., Rahmstorf, S., Levermann, A., & Volkwardt, S. (2013). On the Origin of the Surface Air Temperature Difference between the Hemispheres in Earth's Present-Day Climate. Journal of Climate, 26(18), 7136-7150. Link to PDF

Lippold, J., Luo, Y., Francois, R., Allen, S. E., Gherardi, J., Pichat, S., ... & Schulz, H. (2012). Strength and geometry of the glacial Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Nature geoscience, 5(11), 813-816. Link to abstract

STRUCTURE OF OUR ATMOSPHERE   [top]

Schneider, S. H. (1975). On the carbon dioxide-climate confusion. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 32(11), 2060-2066. Link to PDF

Manabe, S., & Wetherald, R. T. (1975). The effects of doubling the CO2 concentration on the climate of a general circulation modell. Chapter in the book The Warming Papers Link to PDF

Manabe, S., & Möller, F. (1961). On the radiative equilibrium and heat balance of the atmosphere. Monthly Weather Review, 89(12), 503-532. Link to PDF

Randel, W. J., Shine, K. P., Austin, J., Barnett, J., Claud, C., Gillett, N. P., ... & Yoden, S. (2009). An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012), 114(D2). Link to PDF

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007, IPCC AR4 WG1 (2007): Link to chapter

Emmert, J. T., Picone, J. M., & Meier, R. R. (2008). Thermospheric global average density trends, 1967-2007, derived from orbits of 5000 near‐Earth objects. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(5). Link to PDF

Akmaev, R. A., Fomichev, V. I., & Zhu, X. (2006). Impact of middle-atmospheric composition changes on greenhouse cooling in the upper atmosphere. Journal of atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics, 68(17), 1879-1889. Link to abstract

Emmert, J. T., Picone, J. M., Lean, J. L., & Knowles, S. H. (2004). Global change in the thermosphere: Compelling evidence of a secular decrease in density. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics (1978–2012), 109(A2).

MEASURING FROM SPACE   [top]

Li, L., Nixon, C. A., Achterberg, R. K., Smith, M. A., Gorius, N. J., Jiang, X., ... & Ewald, S. P. (2011). The global energy balance of Titan. Geophysical Research Letters, 38(23). Link to paper

Trenberth, K. E., & Fasullo, J. T. (2012). Tracking Earth’s energy: From El Niño to global warming. Surveys in Geophysics, 33(3-4), 413-426. Link to paper

Norman G. Loeb (2014). The Recent Pause in Global Warming: A Temporary Blip or Something More Permanent? Lecture at NASA LaRC and the Virginia Air & Space Center - 05 August 2014 Link to Lecture slides

DAILY AND YEARLY CYCLE   [top]

Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A. M. G., et al. (2006). Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012), 111(D5).  Link to paper.

Wild, M., Ohmura, A., & Makowski, K. (2007). Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(4).  Link to paper.

Braganza, K., Karoly, D. J., & Arblaster, J. M. (2004). Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century. Geophysical research letters, 31(13).  Link to paper.

MESSAGE FROM THE PAST   [top]

Bond, D. P. G., & Wignall, P. B. (2014). Large igneous provinces and mass extinctions: An update. Geological Society of America Special Papers, 505, SPE505–02. http://doi.org/10.1130/2014.2505(02)

Fröhlich, C. (2011). Total Solar Irradiance: What Have We Learned from the Last Three Cycles and the Recent Minimum? Space Science Reviews, 176(1-4), 237–252. http://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-011-9780-1

Kaufman, D. S., Schneider, D. P., McKay, N. P., Ammann, C. M., Bradley, R. S., Briffa, K. R., … Vinther, B. M. (2009). Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling. Science, 325(5945), 1236–1239. http://doi.org/10.1126/science.1173983

Keeling, C. D. (1979). The Suess effect: 13Carbon-14Carbon interrelations. Environment International, 2(4–6), 229–300. http://doi.org/10.1016/0160-4120(79)90005-9

Lockwood, M., & Fröhlich, C. (2007). Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science, 463(2086), 2447 –2460. http://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2007.1880

Lockwood, M., & Fröhlich, C. (2008). Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science, 464(2094), 1367 –1385. http://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2007.0347

Santer, B. D., Painter, J. F., Bonfils, C., Mears, C. A., Solomon, S., Wigley, T. M. L., … Wentz, F. J. (2013). Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(43), 17235–17240. http://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1305332110

Tyndall, J. (1861). On the absorption and radiation of heat by gases and vapours, and on the physical connexion of radiation, absorption, and conduction. Philosophical Magazine Series 4, 22(146), 169–194.

THE LITTLE ICE AGE   [top]

Marcott, S. A., Shakun, J. D., Clark, P. U., & Mix, A. C. (2013). A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years. science, 339(6124), 1198-1201. Link to PDF

Lamb, H.H. (1977). "Appendix to Part III: Table App. V.6 and App. V.7". Climate: Present, past and future 2. London: Methuen. pp. 568–570. ISBN 0064738817.

Masson-Delmotte, V., M. Schulz, A. Abe-Ouchi, J. Beer, A. Ganopolski, J.F. González Rouco, E. Jansen, K. Lambeck, J. Luterbacher, T. Naish, T. Osborn, B. Otto-Bliesner, T. Quinn, R. Ramesh, M. Rojas, X. Shao and A. Timmermann, 2013: Information from Paleoclimate Archives. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA Link to PDF

ANCIENT CO2 LEVELS   [top]

Alley, R. (2009). The Biggest Control Knob:  Carbon Dioxide in Earth’s Climate History. Bjerknes Lecture, American Geophysical Union, Fall Annual Meeting 2009. http://www.agu.org/meetings/fm09/lectures/lecture_videos/A23A.shtml

Franks, P. J., Royer, D. L., Beerling, D. J., Van de Water, P. K., Cantrill, D. J., Barbour, M. M., & Berry, J. A. (2014). New constraints on atmospheric CO2 concentration for the Phanerozoic. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(13), 2014GL060457. http://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060457

Gough, D. O. (1981). Solar interior structure and luminosity variations. In Physics of Solar Variations (pp. 21-34). Springer Netherlands. Link to paper

Jaraula, C. M. B., Grice, K., Twitchett, R. J., Böttcher, M. E., LeMetayer, P., Dastidar, A. G., & Opazo, L. F. (2013). Elevated pCO2 leading to Late Triassic extinction, persistent photic zone euxinia, and rising sea levels. Geology. Link to abstract

Joachimski, M. M., Lai, X., Shen, S., Jiang, H., Luo, G., Chen, B., … Sun, Y. (2012). Climate Warming in the Latest Permian and the Permian-Triassic Mass Extinction. Geology, 40(3), 195–198. Link to abstract

PALAEOSENS Project Members. (2012). Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature, 491(7426), 683–691. Link to PDF

Park, J., & Royer, D. L. (2011). Geologic constraints on the glacial amplification of Phanerozoic climate sensitivity. American Journal of Science, 311(1), 1–26. http://doi.org/10.2475/01.2011.01

Royer, D. L. (2006). CO2-forced climate thresholds during the Phanerozoic. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 70(23), 5665-5675. Link to PDF

Royer, D. L. (2010). Fossil soils constrain ancient climate sensitivity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(2), 517–518. Link to paper

Ruhl, M., Bonis, N. R., Reichart, G.-J., Damsté, J. S. S., & Kürschner, W. M. (2011). Atmospheric Carbon Injection Linked to End-Triassic Mass Extinction. Science, 333(6041), 430 –434. http://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204255

Sagan, C., & Mullen, G. (1972). Earth and Mars: evolution of atmospheres and surface temperatures. Science, 177(4043), 52-56. Link to PDF

Schneebeli-Hermann, E. (2012). Extinguishing a Permian World. Geology, 40(3), 287–288. Link to paper

MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD   [top]

Ahmed, M., Krusic, P. J., Charpentier Ljungqvist, F., & Zorita, E. (2013). Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nature Geoscience, 6(5), 339-346. Link to abstract and RealClimate post by one of the authors

Diaz, H. F., Trigo, R., Hughes, M. K., Mann, M. E., Xoplaki, E., & Barriopedro, D. (2011). Spatial and temporal characteristics of climate in medieval times revisited. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92(11), 1487-1500. Link to PDF

Diaz, H., & Trouet, V. (2014). Some perspectives on societal impacts of past climatic changes. History Compass, 12(2), 160-177. Link to abstract

Fernández-Donado, L., González-Rouco, J. F., Raible, C. C., Ammann, C. M., Barriopedro, D., García-Bustamante, E., ... & Zorita, E. (2013). Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium. Climate of the Past, 9, 393-421. Link to PDF

Goosse, H., Crespin, E., Dubinkina, S., Loutre, M. F., Mann, M. E., Renssen, H., ... & Shindell, D. (2012). The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the Medieval Climate Anomaly”. Climate dynamics, 39(12), 2847-2866. Link to PDF

Grinsted, A., Moore, J. C., & Jevrejeva, S. (2010). Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD. Climate Dynamics, 34(4), 461-472. Link to PDF

Jansen, E., J. Overpeck, K.R. Briffa, J.-C. Duplessy, F. Joos, V. Masson-Delmotte, D. Olago, B. Otto-Bliesner, W.R. Peltier, S. Rahmstorf, R. Ramesh, D. Raynaud, D. Rind, O. Solomina, R. Villalba and D. Zhang, 2007: Palaeoclimate. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical  Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 6 AR 4 WG I

Kemp, A. C., Hortona, B. P., Donnellyc, J. P., Mannd, M. E., Vermeere, M., & Rahmstorff, S. (2011). Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(27), 11017-11022. Link to paper

Kobashi, T., Goto-Azuma, K., Box, J. E., Gao, C. C., & Nakaegawa, T. (2013). Causes of Greenland temperature variability over the past 4000 yr: implications for northern hemispheric temperature changes. Climate of the Past, 9(5), 2299-2317. Link to PDF

Lambeck, K., Rouby, H., Purcell, A., Sun, Y., & Sambridge, M. (2014). Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(43), 15296-15303. Link to paper

Ljungqvist, F. C., Krusic, P. J., Brattström, G., & Sundqvist, H. S. (2012). Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries. Climate of the Past, 8(1), 227-249. Link to paper

Masson-Delmotte, V., M. Schulz, A. Abe-Ouchi, J. Beer, A. Ganopolski, J.F. González Rouco, E. Jansen, K. Lambeck, J. Luterbacher, T. Naish, T. Osborn, B. Otto-Bliesner, T. Quinn, R. Ramesh, M. Rojas, X. Shao and A. Timmermann, 2013: Information from Paleoclimate Archives. In:  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)].  Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Link to PDF

Miller, G. H., Lehman, S. J., Refsnider, K. A., Southon, J. R., & Zhong, Y. (2013). Unprecedented recent summer warmth in Arctic Canada. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(21), 5745-5751. Link to abstract

Otto-Bliesner, B.L., E.C. Brady, J. Fasullo, A. Jahn, L. Landrum, S. Stevenson, N. Rosenbloom, A. Mai, G. Strand. Climate Variability and Change since 850 C.E.: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (submitted 15 February 2015). Link to PDF

Phipps, S. J., McGregor, H. V., Gergis, J., Gallant, A. J., Neukom, R., Stevenson, S., ... & Van Ommen, T. D. (2013). Paleoclimate data–model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years*. Journal of Climate, 26(18), 6915-6936. Link to PDF

Tingley, M.P., & Huybers, P. (2015). Heterogenous warming of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures over the last 1200 years. Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1002/2014JD022506 Link to abstract

Wanner, H., Mercolli, L., Grosjean, M., & Ritz, S. P. (2014). Holocene climate variability and change; a data-based review. Journal of the Geological Society, 2013-101. Link to PDF

Zhou, T., Li, B., Man, W., Zhang, L., & Zhang, J. (2011). A comparison of the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century warming simulated by the FGOALS climate system model. Chinese Science Bulletin, 56(28-29), 3028-3041. Link to PDF

CONFUSED DECLINE   [top]

Briffa, K. R., Schweingruber, F. H., Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., Shiyatov, S. G., & Vaganov, E. A. (1998). Reduced sensitivity of recent tree-growth to temperature at high northern latitudes. Nature, 391(6668), 678–682. Link to abstract

D’Arrigo, R., Davi, N., Jacoby, G., Wilson, R., & Wiles, G. (2014). Tree Growth Issues in the Anthropogenic Era. In Dendroclimatic Studies (pp. 37–41). John Wiley & Sons, Inc.Link to abstract

Huang, S., Pollack, H. N., & Shen, P.-Y. (2000). Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures. Nature, 403(6771), 756–758. Link to abstract

Leclercq, P. W., & Oerlemans, J. (2011). Global and hemispheric temperature reconstruction from glacier length fluctuations. Climate Dynamics, 38(5-6), 1065–1079. Link to paper

Oerlemans, J. (2005). Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records. Science, 308(5722), 675–677. Link to abstract

Smith, C. L., Baker, A., Fairchild, I. J., Frisia, S., & Borsato, A. (2006). Reconstructing hemispheric-scale climates from multiple stalagmite records. International Journal of Climatology, 26(10), 1417–1424. Link to PDF

Stine, A. R., & Huybers, P. (2014). Arctic tree rings as recorders of variations in light availability. Nature Communications, 5. Link to paper

Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years. (n.d.). Retrieved May 18, 2015, from http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11676

Wilson, R., D’Arrigo, R., Buckley, B., Büntgen, U., Esper, J., Frank, D., … Youngblut, D. (2007). A matter of divergence: Tracking recent warming at hemispheric scales using tree ring data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 112(D17), D17103. Link to PDF

PRINCIPLES THAT MODELS ARE BUILT ON   [top]

DOE/Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. (2014, November 12). Latest supercomputers enable high-resolution climate models, truer simulation of extreme weather. ScienceDaily. Link to story.

Manabe, S., & Wetherald, R.T. (1967). Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 24, 241–59. Link to PDF

SUCCESS STORIES   [top]

Manabe, S., & Wetherald, R.T. (1967). Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 24, 241–59. Link to PDF

Sawyer, J. S. (1972). Man-made carbon dioxide and the greenhouse effect. Nature, 239(5366), 2. Link to PDF

Broecker, W. (1975). Climatic change: Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming? Science, 189(4201), 460–63. Link to book chapter

Hansen, J., Johnson, D., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Lee, P., Rind, D., & Russell, G. (1981). Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science, 213(4511), 957-966. Link to PDF

Hansen, J., Fung, I., Lacis, A., Rind, D., Lebedeff, S., Ruedy, R., ... & Stone, P. (1988). Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three‐dimensional model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012), 93(D8), 9341-9364. Link to PDF

Manabe, S., & Wetherald, R. T. (1975). The effects of doubling the CO2 concentration on the climate of a general circulation modell. Link to PDF

Stouffer, R. J., Manabe, S., & Bryan, K. (1989). Interhemispheric asymmetry in climate response to a gradual increase of atmospheric C02. Nature, 342, 660-662. Link to PDF

NOT SO SUCCESSFUL STORIES PUT INTO CONTEXT   [top]

Don Easterbrook. Don Easterbrook’s AGU Paper on Potential Global Cooling. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/29/don-easterbrooks-agu-paper on-potential-global-cooling/. Dana wrote an article about this in 2011: “ Lessons from past predictions: Don Easterbrook ”

J. McLean. Statement: COOL YEAR PREDICTED: Updated with LATEST GRAPH. http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=7349 . Dana wrote an article about this in 2011: “ The day after McLean”

S.-I. Akasofu. (2010). On the Recovery from the Little Ice Age. Natural Science , 2(11): 1211–24. Link to paper (note the rather short timespan between Received 28 July 2010; revised 30 August 2010; accepted 3 September 2010) Dana wrote an article about this in 2011 “ Lessons from past predictions: Syun-Ichi Akasofu ”

Loehle, C., & Scafetta, N. (2011). Climate Change Attribution Using Empirical Decomposition of Climatic Data. Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 5, 74-86. Link to PDF - Dana wrote an article about this in 2011 “ Loehle and Scafetta Play Spencer's Curve Fitting Game ”

WEATHER VS CLIMATE   [top]

Flato, G., J. Marotzke, B. Abiodun, P. Braconnot, S.C. Chou, W. Collins, P. Cox, F. Driouech, S. Emori, V. Eyring, C. Forest, P. Gleckler, E. Guilyardi, C. Jakob, V. Kattsov, C. Reason and M. Rummukainen, 2013: Evaluation of Climate Models. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.  Link to long chapter PDF

Novak, D. R., Bailey, C., Brill, K. F., Burke, P., Hogsett, W. A., Rausch, R., & Schichtel, M. (2014). Precipitation and temperature forecast performance at the Weather Prediction Center. Weather and Forecasting, 29(3), 489-504. Link to paper

CLIMATE SCIENCE IN THE 1970S   [top]

Peterson, T. C., Connolley, W. M., & Fleck, J. (2008). The myth of the 1970s global cooling scientific consensus. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89(9), 1325-1337. Link to PDF

FUTURE ICE AGE   [top]

Alley, R. (2009). The Biggest Control Knob: Carbon Dioxide in Earth’s Climate History.  American Geophysical Union Fall Conference, Bjerknes Lecture.  Link to video.

Yeo, K. L., Krivova, N. A., Solanki, S. K., & Glassmeier, K. H. (2014). Reconstruction of total and spectral solar irradiance from 1974 to 2013 based on KPVT, SoHO/MDI, and SDO/HMI observations. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 570, A85.  Link to PDF.

Ball, W. T., Unruh, Y. C., Krivova, N. A., Solanki, S., Wenzler, T., Mortlock, D. J., & Jaffe, A. H. (2012). Reconstruction of total solar irradiance 1974-2009. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 541, A27. Link to PDF.

Feulner, G., & Rahmstorf, S. (2010). On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(5). Link to PDF.

Jones, G. S., Lockwood, M., & Stott, P. A. (2012). What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near‐surface temperature changes?. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012), 117(D5). Link to PDF.

Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., & Marsh, D. R. (2013). Could a future "“Grand Solar Minimum"” like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming?. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(9), 1789-1793.  Link to PDF.

TENDENCY TO UNDERESTIMATE CLIMATE IMPACTS   [top]

Brysse, K., Oreskes, N., O’Reilly, J., & Oppenheimer, M. (2013). Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?. Global Environmental Change, 23(1), 327-337.  Link to PDF

IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html

Freudenberg, WR, Muselli, V (2010) Global warming estimates, media expectations, and the asymmetry of scientific challenge. Glob Environ Chang 20: pp. 483-491. Link to PDF

Stroeve, J., Holland, M. M., Meier, W., Scambos, T., & Serreze, M. (2007). Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast. Geophysical research letters, 34(9).  Link to paper

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