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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #34 2023

Posted on 24 August 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Publication accident report

There are not 36 hours in a day and so we're unable to cover all scientific journals, instead must restrict surveillance to those most likely to include climate-relevant results. Thus our weekly compendium did not include the paper "A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming," published in Springer-Nature's European Physical Journal Plus back in January of 2022 and authored by Alimonti et al. The paper has just been retracted, with its residual value now lying in (re)learning lessons about how the peer review process can and does sometimes fail, and how to avoid such harm. 

Although the main failure modes in play with this bobble are not new and thus a bit irritating to report, as with any accident investigation the worth of retrospection isn't in blame-casting but rather "see and avoid" in the future. How did we get here, and how do we steer around such trouble? It's a lot about recognizing division of "pilot workload, applying "cockpit resource management," and disciplined self-assessment of skills. When those systems fail, factors normally not problematic may stack up and turn into a harmful accident.

A sign of trouble with this work that should have been identified early: the author team were practicing outside of their normal individual disciplines. While not itself a reason to summarily desk-reject a submission, this should have alerted editors and then appropriately selected reviewers to the need for especially careful attention to the authors' methods, analysis and conclusions. But this brings us to a more glaring problem: the stable of reviewers for European Physical Journal Plus wasn't actually suited for assessing and critiquing this paper. Yet for whatever reason neither the journal's editorial team nor the reviewers chose to admit this and send the paper looking elsewhere for better, suitably competent treatment. This latter failure might be termed the "root cause" of the ensuing publication accident.

Another clue of severe turbulence ahead could have been missed by anybody: two authors were signatories to the so-called "World Climate Declaration," a sort of OISM Petition on steroids designed to create an aura of authority while presenting an entirely fictitious picture of the actual state of Earth's climate as it's affected by human activities. Easy to miss, but a clear indication of motivated reasoning likely in play given the declaration's alienation from scientific consensus and consilience on basic functioning of Earth's climate.

Barreling through all safety barriers the paper was accepted for publication, setting the stage for a hearty helping of humiliation for journal and authors alike— and for more general delusion of the public mind. Meanwhile, climate contrarians live in an environment of starvation when it comes to supporting work published in legitimate journals; Alimonti et al. was eagerly devoured in certain circles when it duly appeared in print, gaining thereby a smidgeon of notoriety.

As a side note, one can't help but remark the astoundingly specialized diet of deniers. Presented with a dish of publications including literally thousands of nuggets of information kibble per year, they reliably sort and reject everything that doesn't comport with prior beliefs, seize on and gobble down the single nibble that tastes "right." It's a failing we all share but especially prominent here.

Now following a familiar trajectory (horse out of the barn), thanks to grateful climate "skeptics" boosting its profile the paper attracted attention of domain experts, essentially the reviewers who ideally should have been those assigned the review task prior to publication.  Belatedly doing what might better have come before, the journal conducted a more intensive review of the work. The authors were offered an opportunity to salvage their claims but failed to rise to the occasion. So, the paper is now retracted by European Physical Journal Plus and everybody involved ends up a bit bruised and battered. May their pain not be wasted. 

Notably, whatever state of misinformation will have been created by the paper's circulation outside of the academic sphere will be essentially impossible to fully  remedy. The publication process crash has created a little crater in our overall betterment.

In remarks to Agence France-Presse, Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research noted that targeting of a vulnerable journal is "a common avenue taken by 'climate skeptics' in order to avoid peer review by real experts in the field." Embarrassment for all is the result but we can be consoled that while lamentably slow and working elliptically, "the system worked." And we can thank Alimonti et al. for providing a valuable skills-building opportunity for the victim journal. There's now less excuse for such a pratfall. We've seen this evolution before— there's no need to repeat it.

151 articles in 65 journals by 793 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Convective Self-Aggregation Occurs Without Radiative Feedbacks in Warm Climates, Yao & Yang Yang, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104624

Nonlinearity of the cloud response postpones climate penalty of mitigating air pollution in polluted regions, Jia & Quaas, Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01775-5

Role of Horizontal Heat Advection in Arctic Surface Warming During Early Spring, Dai, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103234

Unexpected cooling February during global-warming slowdown: Focusing on the mid–high latitudes of Eurasia, Chen et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106969

Observations of climate change, effects

Changes of the streamflow of northern river basins of Siberia and their teleconnections to climate patterns, Zhang et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8194

Changing Storm Temporal Patterns with Increasing Temperatures across Australia, Visser et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0694.1

Cold Springs Over Mid-Latitude North America Induced by Tropical Atlantic Warming, Hou et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104180

Compound heatwave and drought hotspots and their trends in Southeast Australia, Laz et al., Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-023-06115-6

Contributions of natural and anthropogenic factors to historical changes in vegetation cover and its future projections in the Yellow River basin, China, Yang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8213

Examining the past 120 years’ climate dynamics of Ethiopia, Berihun et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-023-04572-4

Interdecadal changes in the interannual variations in spring precipitation over the Tarim Basin, Xie et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8218

Lake Heatwaves and Cold-spells Across Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Under Climate Change, Zhang & Yao, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039243

Trends in Warm Season Mesoscale Convective Systems over Asia in 2001–2020, Guo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038969

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Climate data from the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (1975–2022), Prather et al., Ecology 10.1002/ecy.4153

Proximal remote sensing and gross primary productivity in a temperate salt marsh, Vázquez-Lule & Vargas, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109639

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Atmospheric Moisture Transport Associated with Precipitation in Present and Simulated Future Climates, Watterson, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0588.1

Climate model projections of aridity patterns in Türkiye: A comprehensive analysis using CMIP6 models and three aridity indices, Yava?l? & Erlat, International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8201

CMIP6-projected changes in drought over Xinjiang, Northwest China, Zhang et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8219

Evaluation and prediction of future droughts with multi-model ensembling of four models under CMIP6 scenarios over Iraq, Abduljaleel et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04595-x

Future changes in rainy season characteristics over East China under continuous warming, Piao et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03598-x

Future projection of extreme precipitation over the Korean Peninsula under global warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, using large ensemble of RCMs in CORDEX-East Asia Phase 2, Kim et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04570-6

Hot and dry compound events in South America: present climate and future projections, and their association with the Pacific Ocean, Collazo et al., Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-023-06119-2

How does tropospheric VOC chemistry affect climate? An investigation of preindustrial control simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 2, Stanton & Tandon, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-9191-2023

Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5 , 2.0 and 3.0 global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections, Ayugi et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106872

Projection of long-term climate change in China under COVID-19 recovery emission scenarios, Tian et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039197

Response of ocean climate to different heat-flux perturbations over the North Atlantic in FAFMIP, YIN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.08.005

Response of the Snowball Earth Climate to Orbital Forcing at a High CO2 Level, Wu & Liu Liu, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0041.1

Revealing effective regional decarbonisation measures to limit global temperature increase in uncertain transition scenarios with machine learning techniques, Li et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03529-w

Storylines of Sahel precipitation change: Roles of the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperature, Monerie et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd038712

Weakening of the tropical tropopause layer cold trap with global warming, Bourguet & Linz Linz Linz, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-7447-2023

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases, Sobel et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2209631120

Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting, Fischer et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40112-4

The Importance of Accounting for the North Atlantic Oscillation When Applying Observational Constraints to European Climate Projections, Ballinger et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103431

The Long-Term Trends of Global Land Precipitation in GFDL’s CM4 and ESM4 Climate Models, Zhang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0764.1

Cryosphere & climate change

CRYO, Wright et al., Microscopy and Microanalysis Open Access pdf 10.1017/s1431927603440518

On-shelf circulation of warm water toward the Totten Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, Hirano et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-39764-z

Projecting climate change impacts on ice phenology across Midwestern and Northeastern United States lakes, Blagrave & Sharma, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03596-z

The impact of surface melt rate and catchment characteristics on Greenland Ice Sheet moulin inputs, Hill & Dow, The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-2607-2023

Sea level & climate change

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast, Volkov et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40848-z

Sea-level rise impacts on tidal marshes and estuarine biogeochemical processes, Cai et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007450

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A model for the Arctic mixed layer circulation under a summertime lead: implications for the near-surface temperature maximum formation, Alvarez, The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-3343-2023

Advancing and retreating fronts in a changing climate: a percolation model of range shifts, Oborny & Zimmermann Dániel Zimmermann, Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.06645

Advancing and retreating fronts in a changing climate: a percolation model of range shifts, Oborny & Zimmermann Dániel Zimmermann, Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.06645

Climate change is predicted to cause population collapse in a cooperative breeder, Rabaiotti et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16890

Climate change–induced stress disrupts ectomycorrhizal interaction networks at the boreal–temperate ecotone, Fernandez et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2221619120

Climate-driven tree growth and mortality in the Black Forest, Germany—Long-term observations, Spiecker & Kahle, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16897

Drivers of shoreline change on Pacific coral reef islands: linking island change to processes, Sengupta et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02103-5

Effects of droughts, sea level rise, and increase in outfall discharges on phytoplankton in a temperate estuary (Tagus Estuary, Portugal), Cereja et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02109-z

Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change, Lachs et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40601-6

Environmental impacts on the structural integrity of British rhodoliths, Melbourne et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-40292-5

Five fundamental ways in which complex food webs may spiral out of control, Lever et al., Ecology Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/ele.14293

Forest productivity recovery or collapse? Model-data integration insights on drought-induced tipping points, Au et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16867

Habitat degradation exacerbates the effects of anthropogenic warming by removing thermal refuges, Gunderson, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16909

Impact of ocean warming on a coral reef fish learning and memory, Silveira et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.15729

Improving climate and biodiversity outcomes through restoration of forest integrity, Rayden et al., Conservation Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/cobi.14163

Molecular tools prove little auks from Svalbard are extremely selective for Calanus glacialis even when exposed to Atlantification, Balazy et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-40131-7

Neophytes may promote hybridization and adaptations to a changing planet, Staude & Ebersbach Staude, Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10405

Optimized spatial and temporal pattern for coral bleaching heat stress alerts for China's coral reefs, Zuo et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106152

Oversimplification risks too much: a response to ‘How predictable are mass extinction events?', Reddin et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.230400

Phenological mismatch affects individual fitness and population growth in the winter moth, van Dis et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rspb.2023.0414

Recent trends in the chemistry of major northern rivers signal widespread Arctic change, Tank et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-023-01247-7

The benefits of climate change mitigation to retaining rainbow trout habitat in British Columbia, Canada, Sánchez et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-023-02097-0

The impact of climate change and pollution on trematode-bivalve dynamics, Lamine et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106130

Tropical forests are approaching critical temperature thresholds, Doughty et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-023-06391-z

Use climatic space-for-time substitutions with care: Not only climate, but also local environment affect performance of the key forest species bilberry along elevation gradient, Auestad et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10401

Using historical catch data to evaluate predicted changes in fish relative abundance in response to a warming climate, King et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.06798

Widespread exposure to altered fire regimes under 2 °C warming is projected to transform conifer forests of the Western United States, Hoecker et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00954-8

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Can we use atmospheric CO2 measurements to verify emission trends reported by cities? Lessons from a 6-year atmospheric inversion over Paris, Lian et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-8823-2023

Comparison of carbon and nitrogen accumulation rate between bog and fen phases in a pristine peatland with the fen-bog transition, Yang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16915

Deterministic and stochastic components of atmospheric CO inside forest canopies and consequences for predicting carbon and water exchange, Muñoz & Sierra, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109624

Do global change variables alter mangrove decomposition? A systematic review, Simpson et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.13743

Drivers of particle sinking velocities in the Peruvian upwelling system, Baumann et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-2595-2023

Forest soil carbon efflux evaluation across China: A new estimate with machine learning, Sun et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2023gb007761

Gross primary productivity and the predictability of CO2: more uncertainty in what we predict than how well we predict it, Dunkl et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023

Improved net carbon budgets in the US Midwest through direct measured impacts of enhanced weathering, Kantola et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16903

Marine estuaries act as better sink for greenhouse gases during winter in undisturbed mangrove than degraded ones in Sundarban, India, Bhattacharyya et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106147

Mineral reactivity determines root effects on soil organic carbon, Liang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40768-y

Modeling the Continental Shelf Pump for Dissolved Inorganic Carbon in the Chukchi Sea from 1998 to 2015, Zheng et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2023jc020094

Multi-source data assessment and multi-factor analysis of urban carbon emissions: A case study of the Pearl River Basin, China, Zhang et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101653

Multi-source data assessment and multi-factor analysis of urban carbon emissions: A case study of the Pearl River Basin, China, Zhang et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101653

National quantifications of methane emissions from fuel exploitation using high resolution inversions of satellite observations, Shen et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40671-6

Satellite reveals a steep decline in China’s CO2 emissions in early 2022, Li et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adg7429

Sea-Ice Impacts Inter-Annual Variability of Phytoplankton Bloom Characteristics and Carbon Export in the Weddell Sea, Giddy et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103695

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of phytoplankton primary productivity in China's lakes and reservoirs at a national scale, Sun et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104215

Surprising stability of recent global carbon cycling enables improved fossil fuel emission verification, Birner et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01761-x

Thermal adaptation of microbial respiration persists throughout long-term soil carbon decomposition, Li et al., Ecology Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/ele.14296

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

A comparative exergy-based assessment of direct air capture technologies, Hoseinpoori et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-023-10076-3

Carbon balance of plywood from a social reforestation program in Indonesia, Müller et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-40580-0

Sharp decline in future productivity of tropical reforestation above 29°C mean annual temperature, Nölte et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adg9175

The 100-Year Method for Forecasting Carbon Sequestration in Forest Products in Use, Miner, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-006-4496-3


A multi-generation system based on geothermal driven: energy, exergy, economic and exergoenvironmental (4E) analysis for combined power, freshwater, hydrogen, oxygen, and heating production, Hajabdollahi et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03735-7

Electric vehicle lifecycle carbon emission reduction: A review, Gao et al., Carbon Neutralization Open Access pdf 10.1002/cnl2.81

Flexible green hydrogen: The effect of relaxing simultaneity requirements for project design, economics, and power sector emissions, Ruhnau & Schiele, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113763

Life Cycle Assessment of Closed-Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower in the United States, Simon et al., Environmental Science & Technology Open Access 10.1021/acs.est.2c09189

Mechanisms of hardware and soft technology evolution and the implications for solar energy cost trends, Klemun et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01286-9

Mechanisms of hardware and soft technology evolution and the implications for solar energy cost trends, Klemun et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01286-9

Resistance to purchasing all-electric vehicles: Evidence from a national survey, MacInnis et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102114

Climate change communications & cognition

Extreme weather events and public attention to climate change in Australia, Crellin & MacNeil, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03601-5

Individual Carbon Footprint Reduction: Evidence from Pro-environmental Users of a Carbon Calculator, Enlund et al., Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-023-00800-7

Learning about climate change with comics and text: a comparative study, von Reumont & Budke , Sustainability Science Open Access 10.1007/s11625-023-01398-x

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Assessing the Dynamics of Agropastoral farmers’ Adaptive Capacity to Drought in Uganda’s Cattle Corridor, Mbaziira et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100545

Climate change, cash crops, and violence against civilians in the Sahel, Koren & Schon, Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-023-02090-7

Dissecting regional changes in climate variables for crop management studies using probabilistic convolution neighbourhood technique over Kerala, Thomas & Nair, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04573-3

Do soil nutrient management practices improve climate resilience? Empirical evidence from rice farmers in central China, Liu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02475-4

Impact of climate change in Mexican winegrape regions, Castillo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8224

Modeling the potential impact of climate change on maize-maize cropping system in semi-arid environment and designing of adaptation options, Abbas et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109674

Spatial expansion of avocado in Mexico: Could the energy use of pruning residues offset orchard GHG emissions?, Tauro et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-03762-4

Species redistribution creates unequal outcomes for multispecies fisheries under projected climate change, Liu et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adg5468

Water lettuce (Pistia stratiotes L.) increases biogas effluent pollutant removal efficacy and proves a positive substrate for renewable energy production, Nguyen Vo Chau et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.15879

Water stress dominates the projected maize yield changes in Ethiopia, Yang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104216

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

A spatio-temporal analysis of the role of climatic drivers influencing extreme precipitation events in a Costa Rican basin, Huguenin et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100602

Climate change impacts on spatial and seasonal meteorological drought characteristics for the island of Ireland, Meresa & Murphy, International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8217

Hydro-Economic Modeling of Water Resources Management Challenges: Current Applications and Future Directions, Ortiz-Partida et al., Water Economics and Policy Open Access 10.1142/s2382624x23400039

Identification of water requirement to ameliorate future drought events: approach with CMIP6 climatic models, Kanthavel et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04594-y

MOPREDAS&century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060

Spatio-temporal characteristics and driving factors of flash drought: From the perspective of soil moisture and GPP changes, Wang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100605

Sustainability and specifics of fire water sources in new climatic conditions using the example of the Czech Republic, Kavan & Kro?ová, Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-03708-w

Warming may offset impact of precipitation changes on riverine nitrogen loading, Zhao et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2220616120

What Floodplain Managers Want: Using Weather and Climate Information for Decision-Making, VanBuskirk et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0080.1

Climate change economics

Blockchain-enabled enterprise bleaching green regulation banking evolution game analysis, Xu & Tian, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03768-y

Costs and benefits of the green transitionenvisaged in the Italian NRRP - An evaluation using the social cost of carbon, Alpino et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113744

Is growth of the financial sector relevant for mitigating CO2 emissions in Bangladesh? The moderation role of the financial sector within the EKC model, Chen et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02447-8

Too poor to be clean? A quantile ARDL assessment of the environmental Kuznets curve in SADC countries, Phiri et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-03760-6

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information, Gambhir et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40673-4

Are resource-rich countries less responsive to global warming? Oil wealth and climate change policy, Tadadjeu et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113774

Behaviourally-informed peer referral programmes can increase the reach of low-income energy policies, Wolske et al., Nature Energy Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-023-01323-7

Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for production forests: Trade-offs, synergies, and uncertainties in biodiversity and ecosystem services delivery in Northern Europe, Felton et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01909-1

Environmental risks from tourism carbon emissions in China, Tu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03669-0

Forecasting energy demand, structure, and CO2 emission: a case study of Beijing, China, Weng et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02494-1

Income-based U.S. household carbon footprints (1990–2019) offer new insights on emissions inequality and climate finance, Starr et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000190

Increasing electric vehicles infrastructure in urban areas for efficiently employing renewable energy, Almatar, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03723-x

Pathway towards sustainability or motorization? A comparative study of e-bikes in China and the Netherlands, Coffetti et al., Cement and Concrete Research Open Access 10.1016/j.cemconres.2022.106718

Scenario Discovery Analysis of Drivers of Solar and Wind Energy Transitions Through 2050, Woodard et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003442

Structural attribution of emissions along the global supply chain and implications for climate policy, Tokito et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology 10.1111/jiec.13428

Sustainability transitioning in a developmental state: an analysis of Singapore’s climate change mitigation and adaptation policies, McGreevy & Chia (Aaron), Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2229779

Using the social identity model of pro-environmental behavior to predict support for the adoption of solar panels, Johnson & Reimer, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 10.1007/s13412-023-00850-9

Valuing carbon saving potential of urban parks in thermal mitigation: Linking accumulative and accessibility perspectives, Du et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101645

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A new index assessing adaptive capacity across Africa, Epule et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103561

A Process-Oriented Sustainable Livelihoods Approach–A Tool For Increased Understanding of Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience, Knutsson & Ostwald, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-006-4421-9

Climate shocks, vulnerability, resilience and livelihoods in rural Zambia, Ngoma et al., Climate and Development Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2023.2246031

Enabling Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Systems: A Systematic Literature Review, Cabana et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003713

Linearity of the Climate System Response to Raising and Lowering West Antarctic and Coastal Antarctic Topography, Pauling et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0416.1

Local and utility-wide cost allocations for a more equitable wildfire-resilient distribution grid, Wang et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01306-8

Navigating the continuum between adaptation and maladaptation, Reckien et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01774-6

Optimisation of selection and placement of nature-based solutions for climate adaptation: a literature review on the modelling and resolution approaches, Capgras et al., Environment Systems and Decisions 10.1007/s10669-023-09933-y

Sharing the cost of wildfire resilience, Roald, Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01336-2

Sustainability transitioning in a developmental state: an analysis of Singapore’s climate change mitigation and adaptation policies, McGreevy & Chia (Aaron), Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2229779

Climate change impacts on human health

A Florida urban heat risk index: Assessing weighting and aggregation approaches, Cresswell, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101646

Climate determines transmission hotspots of Polycystic Echinococcosis, a life-threatening zoonotic disease, across Pan-Amazonia, San-José et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2302661120

Future Temperature-Related Deaths in the U.S.: The Impact of Climate Change, Demographics, and Adaptation, Lee & Dessler Dessler , GeoHealth Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gh000799

Future Temperature-Related Deaths in the U.S.: The Impact of Climate Change, Demographics, and Adaptation, Lee & Dessler Dessler , GeoHealth Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gh000799

Heat vulnerability of Latino and Black residents in a low-income community and their recommended adaptation strategies: A qualitative study, Lanza et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101656

Heatwave vulnerability across different spatial scales: Insights from the Dutch built environment, Ahmed et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101614


Effect of climate change on fire regimes in natural resources of northern Iran: investigation of spatiotemporal relationships using regression and data mining models, Eskandari et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-023-06133-4

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Australia’s Antarctic budget cuts a ‘terrible blow for science’, Conroy, Nature 10.1038/d41586-023-02576-8

Postcolonial lessons and migration from climate change: ongoing injustice and hope, Morrison et al., npj Climate Action Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44168-023-00060-7


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Defence and Climate Change, House of Commons Defence Committee

The Ministry of Defence (MOD) is contributing to the achievement of the United Kingdom's legal commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2050. However, the authors found that MOD can do much more to measure and reduce its carbon emissions — without eroding military capability. The Armed Forces, defence acquisition and the defence estate — both at home and abroad — will also need to adapt to respond to the impacts of climate change over the coming decades, with consequences for geostrategy, defence readiness, resilience and the delivery of military effects.

Achieving Climate Security, Sharon Burke, United States Institute of Peace

The author reviews the origins of the concept of climate security as it has evolved in the United States and the controversy surrounding the term), provides an overview of some of the tools being developed to provide information to policymakers and guide their decisions on climate security, and concludes with suggestions for new research. For example, scenario exercises for climate security have an important role to play in policy development, but there may be an expertise gap. First, as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, U.S. military commands, U.S. Agency for International Development, and the U.S. State Department increase their use of such exercises, they will need subject matter experts to play in these games, and there are not many climate security experts in these institutions. Those organizations will also be looking for data and research to support scenario design. In particular, this method is relatively underused for civilian agencies, which is a lost opportunity. Investments in peacebuilding should be planned with the same rigor as investments in warfighting.

State and Local Efforts to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Vehicles, Repko et al., Government Accountability Office

The authors describe activities of selected state Department of Transportation (DOT) and metropolitan planning organizations (MPO) that have taken related to estimating and analyzing the effects of transportation investments on and using reduction targets for on-road greenhouse gas emissions. For example, the authors found examples of state DOTs and MPOs estimating on-road greenhouse gas emissions using different types of data as the basis of those estimates. These entities more commonly used data on vehicle miles traveled, e.g., annual traffic count data, whereas others used fuel data, e.g., gallons of fuel taxed by the state. The selected state DOTs that do not currently estimate on-road greenhouse gas emissions cited a number of reasons. For example, Montana state DOT officials said the majority of roads in the state are rural with no congestion issues. Officials from selected MPOs provided examples of resource challenges they face, such as not having readily available data or personnel with the right subject matter expertise.

Compensation for victims of climate change disasters, Kristel De Smedt and Michael Faure, European Parliament

The authors analyze the kinds of compensation available to victims of climate change disasters in the European Union (EU). They outline the dangers and effects of climate change in the EU as well as the EU policies and mechanisms to deal with climate change disasters. A theoretical framework is developed to determine appropriate compensation mechanisms to deal with climate change disasters. Also discussed are the compensation mechanisms for natural disasters in a representative selection of Member States. Also presented is a critical analysis of the compensation mechanisms at the EU and Member State levels is provided.

Barriers and Limits to Climate Security in the Pacific, Timothy Bryar, Toda Peace Institute

Climate change remains the single greatest security threat to the Pacific Islands region. With emissions gaps persisting and agreements on mitigation efforts remaining contested, enabling opportunities for adaptation is now more crucial than ever for Pacific island countries to meet their climate security ambitions. However, it is increasingly recognized that there may be particular limits beyond which adaptation to climate change will no longer be possible. The author examines the key barriers and limits preventing the Pacific island countries from achieving their climate security goals through adaptation and what options might exist for them to overcome these barriers.

State of the Climate in South-West Pacific 2022, Macara et al, World Meteorological Organization

The authors provide a snapshot of climate indicators including temperatures, sea level rise, ocean heat and acidification, and extreme weather events in 2022. They also highlight the socio-economic risks and effects on key sectors like agriculture.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.


Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

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