Arguments
Is Antarctica losing or gaining ice?
What the science says...
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Antarctic sea ice extent has expanded at times but is currently (2023) low. In contrast, Antarctica is losing land ice at an accelerating rate and that has serious implications for sea level rise. |
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Climate Myth...
Antarctica is gaining ice
"[Ice] is expanding in much of Antarctica, contrary to the widespread public belief that global warming is melting the continental ice cap." (Greg Roberts, The Australian)
At a glance
Who discovered the great, South Pole-straddling continent of Antarctica? According to the National Geographic, Captain Cook came within an estimated 80 miles of it in the late 1700s, but the three first 'official' discoveries all took place in 1820 by Russian, British and American teams of seafarers respectively.
Since that initial discovery, Antarctica has attracted and inspired researchers and explorers alike. It's a challenging place, fringed by sea-ice that, unlike the Arctic, has not steadily declined but whose extent fluctuates on a seasonal basis: it's currently (February 2023) at a very low coverage, but it can and does recover from such dips. Antarctic sea-ice is no great problem, with the exception of albedo-loss in low extent years: if it all melted, it would have no effect on global sea-levels. It's the stuff on land we need to focus upon.
The land of Antarctica is a continent in two parts, divided by the 2,000 m high Transantarctic Mountains. The two parts differ in so many respects that they need to be considered separately. East Antarctica, that includes the South Pole, has the far greater landmass out of the two, some 4,000 by 2,500 kilometres in size. Although its massive ice-sheet, mostly grounded above sea level, would cause 52 metres of sea level rise if it completely melted, so far it has remained relatively stable. Snow accumulation seems to be keeping in step with any peripheral melting.
In contrast, in the absence of ice, West Antarctica would consist of islands of various sizes plus the West Antarctic Peninsula, a long mountainous arm pointing northwards towards the tip of South America. The ice sheet overlying this mixed topography is therefore grounded below sea level in many places and that's what makes it far more prone to melting as the oceans warm up. Currently, the ice-sheet is buttressed by the huge ice-shelves that surround it, extending out to sea. These slow down the glaciers that drain the ice-sheet seawards.
The risk in West Antarctica is that these shelves will break up and then there will be nothing to hold back those glaciers. This has already happened along the West Antarctic Peninsula: in 1998-2002 much of the Larsen B ice-shelf collapsed. On Western Antarctica's west coast, the ice-sheet buttressing the Thwaites Glacier – a huge body of ice with a similar surface area to the UK - is a major cause for concern. The glacier, grounded 1,000 metres below sea level, is retreating quickly. If it all melted, that would raise global sea levels by 65 centimetres.
Such processes are happening right now and may not be stoppable - they certainly will not be if our CO2 emissions continue apace. But there’s another number to consider: 615 ppm. That is the CO2 level beneath which East Antarctica’s main ice sheet behaves in a mostly stable fashion. Go above that figure and the opposite occurs - major instability. And through our emissions, we’ve gone more than a third of the way there (320 to 420 ppm) since 1965. If we don’t curb those emissions, we’ll cross that line in well under a century.
Please use this form to provide feedback about this new "At a glance" section. Read a more technical version below or dig deeper via the tabs above!
Further details
Arguments that we needn't worry about loss of ice in the Antarctic because sea ice is growing or even that sea ice in the Antarctic disproves that global warming is a real concern hinge on confusion about differences between sea and land ice, and what our best information about Antarctic ice tells us.
As well, the trend in Antarctic sea ice is not a permanent feature, as we'll see. But let's look at the main issues first.
- Sea ice doesn't play a role in sea level rise or fall.
- Melting land ice contributes to sea level rise.
- The net, total behavior of all ice in the Antarctic is causing a significant and accelerating rise in sea level.
Antarctic sea ice is ice which forms in salt water mostly during winter months. When sea ice melts, sea level does not change.
Antarctic land ice is the ice which has accumulated over thousands of years in Antarctica by snowfall. This land ice is stored ocean water that once fell as precipitation. When this ice melts, the resulting water returns to the ocean, raising sea level.
What's up with Antarctic sea ice?
At both poles, sea ice grows and shrinks on an annual basis. While the maximum amount of cover varies from year to year, there is no effect on sea level due to this cyclic process.
Figure 1: Coverage of sea ice in both the Arctic (Top) and Antarctica (Bottom) for both summer minimums and winter maximums. Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center
Trends in Antarctic sea ice are easily deceptive. For many years, Antarctic sea was increasing overall, but that shows signs of changing as ice extent has sharply declined more recently. Meanwhile, what's the relationship of sea ice to our activities? Ironically, plausible reasons for change may be of our own making:
- Ozone levels over Antarctica have dropped causing stratospheric cooling and increasing winds which lead to more areas of open water that can be frozen (Gillett & Thompson 2003, Thompson & Solomon 2002, Turner et al. 2009).
- The Southern Ocean is freshening because of increased rain and snowfall as well as an increase in meltwater coming from the edges of Antarctica's land ice (Zhang 2007, Bintanja et al. 2013). Together, these change the composition of the different layers in the ocean there causing less mixing between warm and cold layers and thus less melted sea and coastal land ice.
Against those factors, we continue to search for final answers to why certain areas of Antarctic sea ice grew over the past few decades (Turner et al. 2015).
More lately, sea ice in southern latitudes has shown a precipitous year-on-year decline (Parkinson 2019). While there's a remaining net increase in annual high point sea ice, the total increase has been sharply reduced and continues to decline.
How is Antarctic land ice doing?
We've seen that Antarctic sea ice is irrelevant to the main problem we're facing with overall loss of ice in the Antarctic: rising sea level. That leaves land ice to consider.
Figure 2: Total Antarctic land ice changes and approximate sea level contributions using a combination of different measurement techniques (IMBIE, 2017). Shaded areas represent measurement uncertainty.
Estimates of recent changes in Antarctic land ice (Figure 2) show an increasing contribution to sea level. Between 1992 and 2017, the Antarctic Ice Sheets overall lost 2,720 giga-tonnes (Gt) or 2,720,000,000,000 tonnes into the oceans, at an average rate of 108 Gt per year (Gt/yr). Because a reduction in mass of 360 Gt/year represents an annual global-average sea level rise of 1 mm, these estimates equate to an increase in global-average sea levels by 0.3 mm/yr.
There is variation between regions within Antarctica as can be seen in Figure 2. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet are losing a lot of ice mass, at an overall increasing rate. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet has grown slightly over the period shown. The net result is a massive loss of ice. However, under a high-emissions scenario, ice-loss from the East Antarctic ice-sheet is expected to be a much greater in the decades after 2100, as reported recently by Stokes et al. (2022). That’s a scenario we must avoid at all costs.
Takeaway
Independent data from multiple measurement techniques (explained here) show the same thing: Antarctica is losing land ice as a whole and these losses are accelerating. Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice is irrelevant to what's important about Antarctic ice in general.
Last updated on 14 February 2023 by John Mason. View Archives
Recommended supplemental reading:
Temperatures at a Florida-Size Glacier in Antarctica Alarm Scientists by Shoal Lawal, Climate, New York Times, Jan 29, 2020
Smith et al (2020) 'Pervasive ice sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean and atmosphere processes' compares ICESat data from 2003-2009 with ICESat-2 data from 2018-19 and provides more detail than GRACE 2002-16 but effectively the same conclusion - average Antarctic ice loss - GRACE - 125Gt/year. ICESat-2/ICESat - 118Gt/year.
I was reading today that Manabe and Werherald, working at NOAA, predicted in 1967 that lower atmosphere would act in opposite ways warming in the former would be accompanied by cooling in the later. And that it wasn't until 2011 that atmospheric testing was able to confirm this until 2011. Another prediction by Manabe and two other scientists is that land areas warm faster than oceans, with the slowest warming around Antartica. My understanding has been that while Land masses do warm faster than oceans (for more than one reason) but that warming at the polar regions had been more like 2-3 °C compared to the global average of 1.0-1.1 °C.
is there a different thread on this site where I can learn about polar warming in comparison to other regions? And the relevant mechanism. I'm aware of ozone depletion over Antartica for example which is a seperate but interconnected mechanism.
thanks in advance. the book I'm reading (The Wizard and the Prophet, an excellent read) may have got it wrong I guess but Charles C Mann is a long time science writer/journalist.
Edit> "predicted in 1967 that the lower atmosphere and the stratosphere would act in opposite ways: that warming in the former would be accompanied by cooling in the later"
WEP. Yes, the two key early papers that Manabe was involved in were:
Manabe and Strickler, 1964.
Manabe and Wetherald, 1967
Figure 16 from the second paper illustrates the stratospheric cooling associated with surface warming:
Thanks Bob, guess the bit I'm trying to clear up is the question i asked:
is true of either the North or South poles that they're warmed more than the global mean?
Hello again WEP,
That is certainly the case for the Arctic. Here are some brief instructions on how to answer that sort of question for yourself:
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/05/steve-koonins-unsettled-arctic-science/#WRIT
Here's just one example, which hopefully answers your question?
I leave producing the Antarctic version as an exercise for the interested reader.
wideEyedPupil @506,
There is a 'Global Maps' page on the GISTEMP website HERE that you may find useful. It maps the warming across the globe between any time periods as well as providing a graph of warming by latitude.
If you set the 'Time Interval' to something a decade-long (so perhaps 2010 to 2020 from the ) and for the full year, the warming of the Arctic since the 'Base Period' is obvious, as is "the slowest warming around Antartica." Surrounded by a doughnut of slow-warming oceans, the warming over the continent of Antarctica is less obviously exceptional.
Suggested supplemental reading:
Deciphering the rise and fall of Antarctic sea ice extent, Guest Post by Clare Eayrs & David Holland, Carbon Brief, June 29, 2021
1. You mentioned that Antarctic sea ice is irrelevant. As if saying "Lets focus on the Antarctic land ice we are losing".
2. I'm wondering why is this trend not relevant but other are. Why dismiss any trend that shows different behaviour than expected.
3. By saying expectedI see that the models for arctic sea ice fit well with measured trend while models for Antartic sea ice got it wrong. So can you comment on why the model for Antartic sea ice got it wrong and is the same model used also for Arctic ?
4. Comment 3 is also is clearly inline with Key section from IPCC Assesment Report "AR5", 2014 where it accuratly reports trends of sea ice in Arctic but dont mention the different trend in sea ice in Antartic. Why did IPCC include the Arctic sea ice (i.e. it's relevant) but omitted the Antartic sea ice (i.e. you seem to claim it's irelevant). Do you thing it's because it interfers with the main message which implys that "ice is melting dramatically"
Thanks,
Shalom
1. You mentioned that Antarctic sea ice is irrelevant. As if saying "Lets focus on the Antarctic land ice we are losing".
rn
2. I'm wondering why is this trend not relevant but other are. Why dismiss any trend that shows different behaviour than expected.
3. By saying expectedI see that the models for arctic sea ice fit well with measured trend while models for Antartic sea ice got it wrong. So can you comment on why the model for Antartic sea ice got it wrong and is the same model used also for Arctic ?
4. Comment 3 is also is clearly inline with Key section from IPCC Assesment Report "AR5", 2014 where it accuratly reports trends of sea ice in Arctic but dont mention the different trend in sea ice in Antartic. Why did IPCC include the Arctic sea ice (i.e. it's relevant) but omitted the Antartic sea ice (i.e. you seem to claim it's irelevant). Do you thing it's because it interfers with the main message which implys that "ice is melting dramatically"
rn
rn
Thanks,
rn
Shalom
When this myth was addressed, there was a small upward trend of Antarctic sea ice, that was squeaking by the statistical significance criteria.
As of now, the Antarctic sea ice long term trend in the satellite record is difficult to distinguish since the margin of error is more than twice as large as the trend(!): 0.6% +- 1.6% per decade.
Incidentally, 2022 saw the lowest Antarctic sea ice extent in the satellite record.
https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index
None of this really affects the basic argument in this myth rebuttal, which is that the loss of land based sea ice is a concern for sea level rise, whereas variations in sea ice are not.
The data does not allow to identify any significant long term change at this time, although what has been happening since 2014 certainly seems interesting.
Hi Philippe,
If your replly was to me then:
1. What is significant is irelevant to my questions since I'm raising 2 concerns. Why a when a wrong model trend of Antarctic sea ice is not mentioned and why Arctic sea ice is ? Why arent the the full picture of trends is discussed.
2. Alternatively why was it so important to show a model forcasting dramatical reduction of Antarctic sea ice (also if it's irelevant, why bother) but once measured data arrives and it doesnt fit the model abandon this Antarctic sea ice and dont mention it in the SPM ?
Shalom Wulich @510 , it would be helpful if you would explain why you think the conditions at the two polar regions are comparable.
To me, the two cases seem so very different ~ so much so, as to make trend comparisons very difficult. How can even the sea-ice comparisons be relevant?
Arctic sea-ice is a thin film ~ 1 meter up to 5 meters thick, depending on temperature conditions. Antarctic sea-ice is similarly thin, but is "fed" by ice melting off the periphery of the permanent massive ice sheet that covers the Antarctic land. The extent of the antarctic sea-ice is influenced by air temperature and ocean temperature; and by the melting rate of the ice sheet periphery; and by the local surface oceanic salinity; and by the local strength of the katabatic winds coming down off the mass of Antarctica itself. Quite different to the Arctic situation.
(The Antarctic ice sheet is about 2,000 meters thick, and has a mass of approx 26 million gigatons . . . that is, 26 million cubic kilometers. So large, that most of it will persist for many thousands of years despite whatever multi-degree global warming we humans produce over the coming centuries. And the temperature conditions near the south pole's position will remain at the same frosty level, on top of such a huge block of ice ! )
West Antarctic (and peripheral East Antarctic) amount of melting will of course have a major effect on global sea level rise.
So if you are looking at Antarctic sea-ice extent only, then a comparison with the Arctic sea-ice extent has little relevance. No need to get excited about the trend comparisons you mention @510.
Sorry, Shalom Wulich , I apparently have cross-posted with you.
I hope my above post has answered both of your concerns.
You are therefore quite right in saying that the Antarctic sea-ice extent is not worth you bothering yourself about. The southern sea-ice extent trend, and the modelling of it, is only of real interest to the specialists who study that issue. Nothing for you to get excited about. Almost zero relevance to your own AGW concerns.
Shalom,
You are launching accusations of nefarious intent. However, you are not producing anything even close to evidence that would support such accusations. In fact, the accusations thenselves are about actions that have not taken place and facts that are imaginary.
The treatment of polar regions in the 6th assessment is summarized here. It says: "For Antarctic sea ice, there is no significant trend in satellite-observed sea ice area from 1979 to 2020 in both
winter and summer, due to regionally opposing trends
and large internal variability." The trend is not significant because it is less than the uncertainty. Antarctic sea ice is not ignored or swept under the rug. As usual with IPCC reports, the full treatment of the polar regions is accessible online.
Not only does it not ignore Antarctic sea ice, it provides numerous references for it:
Turner et al., 2017
Kusahara et al., 2018
Meehl et al., 2019
Wang et al., 2019
Before asserting that a trend is being ignored, it would also make sense to ensure that there is really a trend to speak of. Turns out that there isn't: "Total Antarctic sea ice cover exhibits no significant trend over the period of satellite observations (Figure 3.3; 1979–2018) (high confidence) (Ludescher et al., 2018)."
Interestingly, this was compiled before the lowest extend on record, which was in 2022.
Last point, about models. Another quote from same AR6: "Coupled climate models indicate that anthropogenic warming at the surface is delayed by the Southern Ocean circulation, which transports heat downwards into the deep ocean (Armour et al., 2016). This overturning circulation (Cross-Chapter Box 7 in Chapter 3), along with differing cloud and lapse rate feedbacks (Goosse et al., 2018), may explain the weak response of Antarctic sea ice cover to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations compared to the Arctic (medium confidence). Because Antarctic sea ice extent has remained below climatological values since 2016, there is still potential for longer-term changes to emerge in the Antarctic (Meehl et al., 2019), similar to the Arctic."
In summary: there is not really a trend to ignore or sweep under the rug. That lack of trend has nonetheless not been ignored. Models do not predict identical trends in Northern and Southern sea ice cover for a number of reasons, the SAM being a major one. Variability is far greater in the Southern hemisphere, with diverging regional trends.
Hi Philippe,
So following the fact that measured data wasnt aligend with the CMIP5 model, now there is new explantation - Good for science!
CMIP6 - you are king !
Were Policy makers aware that in 2014 IPCC CMIP5 got it wrong and now there is a correction with new explanation ? Are they being told of all the corrections ? if so where in the SPM ?
Additionally , if the models then were wrong and now fine tuned, how can we be sure that now they are ok ? what new findings might finetune future models ?
So while we rely on these models to drive policy it might be that in the future, due to these model coming out wrong, we might find ourselves regreting actions we took based on wrong predictions ?
If we go back to 2014 AR5 and review the SPM this is what I make of it:
IPCC - the model predicting Antarctic sea ice got it wrong, lets not include it in the report. If we do include it, it might raise concerns on the validity of the other models we used. Why raise this doubt to begin with ?
Policy makers understanding- Ice is decreasing dramatically all over. Measured data is aligend with models, we go to do something, IPCC is totally right !
Attaching the 2 links showing the Arctic and Antarctic trends measured vs. model and the CMIP5.
Actual Sea trends
The approval CMIP5 model got it wrong
The IPCC used models
and again qouting the key section from IPCC AR5 2014 report:
B.3 Cryosphere
"Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent (high confidence) (see Figure SPM.3). (4.2-4.7)"
Where is the other trend ? The Antarctic sea ice ???? Ohhhh. That. It's not relevant now.
You see what you want to see even it if it's not there and do not see what you don't want to see, even if it is there.
Your did not link AR5, so I went directly to the source.
From AR5 synthesis report, Topic 1: Observed changes and their causes, section 1.1.3, page 42 (58 in the pdf counter), Cryosphere: "There is high confidence that there are strong regional differences in the trend in Antarctic sea ice extent, with a very likely increase in total extent."
Further down, it reads " It is very likely that the annual mean Antarctic sea ice extent increased in the range of 1.2 to 1.8% per decade (range of 0.13 to 0.20 million km2 per decade) between 1979 and 2012."
Is that obvious enough? How else could it be written? How did you miss it?
Synthesis Report here.
Earlier you mentioned the Summary for Policymakers. So I went to that part and looked at what it said about the cryosphere. Unsurprisingly, it said almost verbatim the same words as in the synthesis report. Quote from AR5 Summary for Policymakers: " It is very likely that the annual mean Antarctic sea-ice extent increased in the range of 1.2 to 1.8% per decade between 1979 and 2012. However, there is high confidence that there are strong regional differences in Antarctica, with extent increasing in some regions and decreasing in others."
Those familiar with IPCC know that specific ranges of probability correspond to "likely" or "very likely." As usual, that can be found in the the report.
Not only AR5 mentions the increase of Antarctic sea ice in the body of the report and in the summary for policymakers, but it even quantifies the size of the increase and the level of confidence in the finding. It also lists scientific references. If that is your idea of sweeping under the rug, you can't be helped.
You asked the question "Where is the other trend?"
The answer is: in the synthesis report and in the summary for policymakers. Read them. For all your talk about what's in the reports, you seem surprisingly ignorant of their actual content.
The accusation that the IPCC was trying to hide the small increase in Antarctic sea ice that existed at the time of AR5 is baseless, as can be easily verified from examining the report you cited. This suggests that you did not read the material you used for your own argument.
This: "Ice is decreasing dramatically all over. Measured data is aligend with models, we go to do something, IPCC is totally right !" would certainly qualify as a strawman argument but it is so grotesque that a better name would be a straw clown.
In the actual IPCC material, what policymakers find is language like this: " In the Synthesis Report, the certainty in key assessment findings is communicated as in the Working Group Reports and Special Reports. It is based on the author teams’ evaluations of underlying scientific understanding and is expressed as a qualitative level of confidence (from very low to very high) and, when possible, probabilistically with a quantified likelihood (from exceptionally unlikely to virtually certain). Where appropriate, findings are also formulated as statements of fact without using uncertainty qualifiers."
You also do not seem to understand how models are made, validated and used, what ensemble means are and a number of other elements. I have never seen before the expression "approval model." From what you have produced so far, I doubt that there is much point getting into a discussion of these issues.
Shalom Wulich @518,
You ask "Where is the other trend?" given the passage you quote makes no mention of Antarctic SIE.
You are actually quoting the header of Section B.3 from the SPM of AR5 WG1 2013. The section you quote is repeated word-for-word within the AR5 Synthesis Report 2014 Secrtion 1.1.3 but the WG1 SPM you actually quote does head a series of eight bullet points, one of which is specifically describing Antarctic SIE and references Section 4.2 of the main AR5 WG1 report which in Chapter 4 Section 4.2.3 Antarctic Sea Ice provides coverage of your missing "other trend." If you would but look this is all fully referenced.
Philippe & MAR, thank you for the detailed info.
Shalom Wulich , your initial assertions are completely wrong. Demonstrably. Nevertheless, you are an intelligent guy and presumably are aware of your own motivations in questioning the climate science. It would be helpful to readers (and to yourself) if you would clarify your underlying thoughts in this whole area.
(For it seems unlikely that you simply awakened one morning and found yourself racked with doubts about the peculiar nature of Antarctic sea-ice extent. )
NASA Study in 2015 clearly states Mass Gains of Antarctic ice sheet are greater than losses. I'll quote it.
On a separate personal note, having lived less than a 2 minute walk from the pacific ocean for the past 40 years, i have yet to see any rise in sea level. One of the docks near my home has pole marked to indicate the current tide height and it's been there for at least 30 years, and a zero foot tide is still indicated spot on all these years later.
I think a lot of the people on this site are unaware of their own motivations and almost religious adherence the government mandated narraitive. It's usually a good idea to actually listen to the people in charge of international climate policy and you'll realize it's all a lie. United Nations climate official Ottmar Edenhofer said the following just a couple years ago.
And just a few years prior to that he said:
And a bit more insight:
And my favorite is how they went on to say that in order to make this happen, they must plunge the world economy into a depression in order to force the end of capitolism.
Andrew,
Your accusations are unwarranted. The recent exchange on this thread is a shining example of how some will believe assertions that are false, and will continue to believe them even after being shown without a shadow of a doubt that they are false. This behavior is contrary to a sincere scientific approach. It is not widespread among those who participate regularly on this site. The allusion to government bla-bla is rather ironic for 2 reasons. One is that you used a government agency as a source for your argument, and said government agency was publicizing scientific work headed by a government employee (Jay Zwally), pretty much the boss of glaciology at NASA. How did that irony escape you?
Second, because governments have taken so far no significant action and most of them can even be described as actively resisting change. Some may pay lip service and have plenty of nice sounding declarations, but actions are more important than words, and governmental actions have so far been tepid, at best.
I note that NASA has updated their position since publicizing the Zwally study, as well they should, because knowledge and understanding evolve and what matters is the weight of the evidence. I have no doubt that Dr Zwally thinks no different.
The Zwally study (full paper with that link) is a well known outlier. It was a surprising outlier back in 2015 when published and generated a lot of interest. In the 7 years since publication, it has been contradicted by numerous subsequent studies that benefited from the data from IceSat2 launched in 2018.
Because of that 2015 paper, there has been more scientific enquiry into this problem, which led to multiple publications. That is science at work. The Rignot et al (2018) paper is arguably one of the best researched, but there are plenty more:
wwhttps://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaz5845w.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaz5845
wwhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.741789/fullw.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.741789/full
www.researchgate.net/publication/233806259_A_Reconciled_Estimate_of_Ice-Sheet_Mass_Balance (full article accessible as pdf)
About sea level:
I have worked in various areas involving science and engineering. Anecdote is no substitute for data and rigorous analysis.
Careful data gathering and analysis has been performed by numerous teams and, once again, there is an unmistakable convergence of results. Multiple scientific works can be fond in literally seconds on this subject.
It is entirely expected that see level not be uniform and that sea level changes vary by region. That variability itself is the subject of multiple studies.
I did not expand on the other subjects you approached since they are clearly off topic for the thread.
Philippe Chantreau , the Antarctic study mentioned by AndrewLB was not only an outlier (and is now obsolete) from the main group of studies of Antarctic ice loss : but at the time (2015) the author Dr Zwally himself commented that he expected to see further reduction of ice mass within 20-30 years (owing to continued global warming). That comment of his was personal opinion I gather, rather than a scientific projection. But it fits in with overall consensus.
AndrewLB , the political ideas you mentioned (@522) are not science, and so do not get discussed in this thread. However, I can refer you to the blog WattsUpWithThat , where you can find plenty of discussion of wacky paranoid conspiracy theories including contrail chemical poisons, Gatesian mind-control vaccine microchips, Jewish Space Lasers, and Soros machinations for World Marxism.
True, the WUWT conversations are rather one-sided, but if you wish to discuss those sorts of topics, then WUWT is a good entry point for you. (Take a torch with you ~ the rabbit hole is very deep.)