What has global warming done since 1998?
What the science says...
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Every part of the Earth's climate system has continued warming since 1998, with 2015 shattering temperature records. |
Climate Myth...
It hasn't warmed since 1998
For the years 1998-2005, temperature did not increase. This period coincides with society's continued pumping of more CO2 into the atmosphere. (Bob Carter)
Even if we ignore long term trends and just look at the record-breakers, 2015, 2014, 2010, and 2005 were hotter than 1998.
The myth of no warming since 1998 was based on the satellite record estimates of the temperature of the atmosphere. However, as discussed in the video below by Peter Sinclair, even that argument is no longer accurate. The satellites show warming since 1998 too.
There's also a tendency for some people just to concentrate on atmospheric or surface air temperatures when there are other, more useful, indicators that can give us a better idea how rapidly the world is warming. More than 90% of global warming heat goes into warming the oceans, while less than 3% goes into increasing the atmospheric and surface air temperature. Records show that the Earth has been warming at a steady rate before and since 1998 and there is no sign of it slowing any time soon (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Land, atmosphere, and ice heating (red), 0-700 meter ocean heat content (OHC) increase (light blue), 700-2,000 meter OHC increase (dark blue). From Nuccitelli et al. (2012).
Even if we focus exclusively on global surface temperatures, Cowtan & Way (2013) shows that when we account for temperatures across the entire globe (including the Arctic, which is the part of the planet warming fastest), the global surface warming trend for 1997–2015 is approximately 0.14°C per decade.
Ultimately, every part of the Earth's climate system is warming, and has continued warming since 1998.
This rebuttal was updated by Kyle Pressler in September 2021 to replace broken links. The updates are a result of our call for help published in May 2021.
Last updated on 29 September 2017 by dana1981. View Archives
Hi dikran
where is the global warming :)
what is wrong with this graph
Warren Hindmarsh, two questions:
Did temperature rise or stand still over the course of the twentieth century?
If the warming rate over a given period is greater than in a period over which temperatures are known to rise, is it correct to say that temperatures are not rising?
sorry Dipal have to go right now
The graph is from
The Hadley Centre/CRU records show no warming for 18 years (v.3) or 19 years (v.4), and the RSS satellite dataset shows no warming for 23 years (h/t to Werner Brozek for determining these values).
A third question:
Isn't it misleading to say that a period with a positive tempertature trend (ie, temperatures are rising) shows no warming?
Please note that "no warming" does not mean the same thing as "the warming is not statistically significant".
Warren Hindmarsh wrote: "what is wrong with this graph"
Read up on 'cherry picking'... that is, deliberately choosing a time period which shows the result you want despite the fact that longer and/or shorter time periods show results contradicting your claim.
Also: "temps have been rising slowly since the middle ages"
Not according to any historical temperature study I am aware of. Indeed, temperatures were slowly falling for thousands of years, including both before and after the 'middle ages', until the modern greenhouse warming surge.
Finally: "but for the last 17yrs or so [temps] have stablized"
Again, 'cherry picking'... not only of the time period, but also which temps. Ocean temps have certainly not 'stabilized' over the past 17 years.
You obviously didn't even bother to read the post above. Maybe try that before making arguments which it has already disproved.