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Comments 26 to 50 out of 92:

26. Eric (skeptic) at 21:52 PM on 8 December, 2010
    #25 muoncounter, thanks for transferring my comment to a more appropriate thread. As I tried to explain in the other thread, I am not "chasing" anything, only mentioning a few of the causes of variations in sensitivity that are not in any paleo studies or current era models. Dana shows the non-match to 30 years of temperature in his threads and John shows recent non-match above as well. So the CO2 warming theory holds well for 30 years of precise GCR data and warming data. GCR is a much more variable effect both with clouds as above, and SSW http://www.appmath.columbia.edu/ssws/index.php and other effects. Those effects come and go and may balance out over time. They won't explain any inexorable monotonic warming or cooling because of their measured variability and because their effects are nonlinear and indirect through cloud and weather pattern changes. Events like SSW are modulated by solar activity but celestial in origin so their source is unpredictable but their intensity will be more or less diminished by higher solar activity. The most interesting aspect is the effect on climate sensitivity, not direct warming or cooling. A blocking event such as created by SSW or by other mechanisms will tend to diminish the water vapor feedback part of sensitivity. Another aligned effect is what Mizimi mentions in #10 above, that the water vapor feedback is diminished by CGR cloud formation. It is not an energy effect as correctly pointed out in #12, but it is an important change in sensitivity. A long term change in solar activity and thus GCR flux is a very important consideration in potential paleo and model analysis. Part of the higher sensitivity to CO2 warming measured in the late 20th century may be due to solar activity which diminished both the intensity of SSW events and the low clouds from GCR. Likewise part of the recent decrease in sensitivity may be be explained with solar activity decreases. This last paragraph is speculative, and I welcome critiques and counter evidence.
27. Eric (skeptic) at 23:20 PM on 9 December, 2010
    This paper seems appropriate to post here to compliment the new thread where it is postulated that the ends of ice ages are caused by increased solar forcing and CO2 feedback (with presumably the reverse for starting ice ages). GCR considered as a forcing is much more speculative http://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0407005 and Kirkby et al say so. But what would be most interesting to me is to combine the orbital variation forcing (which is notably weak) with the GCR "sensitivity" modulation (see my post 26) to help explain rapid changes especially into ice ages. I put quotes around sensitivity since it is not the usual definition but a broader one in which any forcing (orbital solar or current CO2 increase) can be amplified or deamplified (or lowered forcing can also be amplified or deamplified).

    This may help explain some of the changes that are not explained by the orbital curves in the other thread, especially the initiation of warming and cooling since the GCR effects can be much more powerful (partly forcing as postulated in the paper, but also amplification of the weaker orbital forcing).

28. Riccardo at 02:11 AM on 10 December, 2010
    Eric (skeptic) scientists study all the reasonable hypothesis, it's their job afterall. Problem is when people take those hypothesis as valid alternative theories. Note that the paper, although submitted, didn't show up. Here you can find a nice review which includes the same data shown in the arxiv paper.
29. Eric (skeptic) at 05:30 AM on 10 December, 2010
    Riccardo, thanks for the link. That paper is broad, not deep, but I agree with their conclusion that it is inconclusive especially without good GCR proxy data earlier than the present and 130k interglacials. What is a little weird about the paper is that they keep going back to solar and use GCR proxies as a solar proxy. Although GCR's are modulated by solar activity, they are their own animal. My guess looking at fig 8 is that an interglacial requires both low GCR plus northern hemisphere sun (the other thread), it can't happen with just one or the other.
30. muoncounter at 06:08 AM on 10 December, 2010
    #29: "they keep going back to solar and use GCR proxies as a solar proxy." Because solar magnetic activity is what causes the observed variation in GCR frequency. Are you reading anything in this thread and following links that we provide? "Although GCR's are modulated by solar activity, they are their own animal." What animal? GCRs are infrequent and random; they come from times long ago and places far away. The only important feature of GCRs in this context is that they "are modulated by solar activity", which is what you questioned one sentence earlier in your comment #29! #26: "Events like SSW" OK, so I looked at the website you linked, which is pretty nice. It would be interesting if you would try to match up the dates of their SSW events with anything else. However, there are fewer than 30 events in their entire database, which runs back to 1958. How much warming are we supposed to be getting from fewer than one event per year? I suppose if you pile up enough of these disparate straws, you will indeed be able to put together a modest-sized strawman. But it is stunning that one can cling to 'this might' and 'that could', when the answer, my friend, is blowing in the increasingly CO2-enriched wind (apologies to Mr. B. Dylan). Unless it is some preconceived idea that it just can't be CO2. In which case, you should be reading more here at SkS.
31. Eric (skeptic) at 06:54 AM on 10 December, 2010
    muoncounter, the low frequency is a good point. I don't what the frequency history is, but likely it varies between zero and small. But it is not random since the galactic structure was not random over time and our transit through the galaxy does not take us into random amounts of leftover particles. It is quite unpredictable, although not completely unpredictable. They are modulated by solar activity and of course solar activity itself has other effects, so it is worth studying and using GCR as a proxy. But this thread is about cosmic rays and (my addition) the effect they could have on sensitivity. The fact of CO2 warming is not in question here (or at all), just sensitivity and I would greatly appreciate your opinion on my final sentence in #29.
32. LizR at 06:15 AM on 23 December, 2010
    Den siste mohikanen said: "For sure, neither the sun nor CO2 nor the two together make up for the only climate forcing. So your argument is a bit weak by itself, but even if we assume that all the unexplained difference is due to CO2, that doesn't give as much room for IPCCs +6°C forecast that you seem to imply." This is only true if there are no "tipping points" involved. However, if the current temperature rise is sufficient to bring trapped methane out of solution in the oceans, permafrost, clathrates etc, then there could be a feedback effect. Or there are other possibilities that could have the same effect. Here is a comment from Michael Benton, a paleontologist at Bristol University. He says that evidence points to the cause of the Permian extinction being prolonged and violent eruptions from the Siberian traps, a huge region of volcanic rock. In this scenario, mass eruptions triggered environmental catastrophe by belching an overwhelming quantity of gas into the atmosphere for half a million years. "The main follow on was a flash warming of the Earth. That caused stagnation in the oceans, as normal circulation shut down. On land, the consequence of all the carbon dioxide and other gases appears to have been massive acid rain that killed the forests and stripped the landscape bare," Benton said. "This was the greatest of all mass extinctions, the time when life was most nearly completely wiped out."
    Response: [muoncounter] Good points. See the discussions on methane hydrates here and here.
33. pdt at 04:10 AM on 24 January, 2011
    This recent "The Register" article about a recently published paper on the influence of cosmic rays on climate presents a very different picture than the one shown here. I would be interested in seeing a assessment of the paper if anyone has time.
34. muoncounter at 05:09 AM on 24 January, 2011
    #33: "a recently published paper" Thanks for finding the appropriate thread. It appears that this is one from the 'here-we-go-again' department (I note that W^W# has already picked it up). I won't bother with snide editorialisms in the Register article or any of the other newspaper feeds that parrot it. Here is a link to the Rao paper (it's actually a 'research communication') to be published in the IAS publication 'Current Science'. I see several points in a quick look: a. No new data are presented b. The most recent reference is 2007 c. He relies on the 'well-established excellent correlation' between GCRs and low-level clouds. The CERN CLOUD experiment, designed specifically to test this, has yet to produce any such results d. He pulls a graph from a 2005 paper (Veizer) to show 'correlation' between surface neutron monitors and 'low-level cloud intensity'. Although this is supposed to be a heat-trapping mechanism and the conclusion of the 'paper' is that this is a significant part of global warming, he curiously omits any temperature data. e. He makes the usual hash of GCRs-> more high level clouds -> cooling due to increased albedo and GCRs->low level clouds -> warming due to heat trapping. Same old song, not even a new verse.
35. JMurphy at 05:31 AM on 24 January, 2011
    pdt, I wouldn't get your information from sources like THE REGISTER. Having done a search for this 'paper', I have only found links to the usual sources of denial (like the one you found), most of them having copied a report from THE HINDU. In that original report, it states that Dr. Rao's findings were released "as a discussion paper" by the Indian Environment Minister. Another Indian source calls it a "scientific review...[of] recent studies..." There is also a report in the HINDUSTAN TIMES, with a reaction from V Ramanathan of the SCRIPPS Institute. None of the reports I found, actually had a link to the paper or, even, any information about the title or where it was to be published. Seems like they were just interested in copying and pasting something that sounded to them like an anti-AGW paper. Strange, eh ? Doesn't appear to be that hoped-for 'final nail in the coffin of AGW' that some are hoping for (yet again).
36. jpvs at 06:19 AM on 24 January, 2011
    @35 (and others) I finally found the paper: http://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/Discussion-paper-INCCA-1-2.pdf It includes a reaction by prof Rawanathan (Scripps San Diego)
37. Eric (skeptic) at 07:18 AM on 24 January, 2011
    #36, I just read through that paper and I don't see a quantification of the low cloud changes. I don't think the author divided the TSI fluctuation by 4. His figure (2) comes from this paper http://www.sciencebits.com/files/articles/GACV32No1Veizer.pdf The Veizer paper references this paper http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2002/2002GL015474.shtml which states "Correlation of our total irradiance time series with T accounts statistically for 80% of the variance in global temperature over that period, although the irradiance variation amplitude is insufficient to influence global warming in present-day climate models." I'm skeptical about this last paper, correlations are suspect and I have not seen correlations of TSI and GAT.
38. muoncounter at 07:39 AM on 24 January, 2011
    #37: Eric, Thanks for the link to the Veizer 2005 paper; it certainly is unusual. He's mixed together what we've called GCRs with solar cosmic rays into a 'cosmic ray flux' (CRF). The CRF, in turn, is believed to correlate with the low altitude cloud cover. The postulated causation sequence is therefore: brighter sun ⇒ enhanced thermal flux + solar wind ⇒ muted CRF ⇒ less low-level clouds ⇒ lower albedo ⇒ warmer climate. Who among us will argue with the endpoints of that logical chain? Yes, brighter sun -> warmer climate. However, nothing in either Veizer or Rao substantiate the postulated mechanism of the steps in between.
39. muoncounter at 06:44 AM on 21 February, 2011
    The 'its cosmic rays' crowd should be poised for a big couple of weeks. The recent solar flares (coronal mass ejections or CMEs) have arrived on earth, bringing "waves of ionization." More are coming, as the active far side of the sun rotates our way in the next week or two. See 19 Feb and 20 Feb spaceweather.com for a recap. The WUWT crowd is excited by this news, responding with such gems as "Global Temps should go up? (as middle height tropical clouds do not form droplets see svensmark). Interesting to record the time it takes…" So far, some very nice auroral displays. -- spaceweather's Aurora gallery Surface neutron monitors are unimpressed, example here, (approx a -4% change), which is not much compared to this 3x larger event from September 2005. Note these are links to dynamically generated images from the online neutron monitor at Oulu, Finland. These are known as Forbush decreases, as ionizing radiation shields the earth's surface from the normal CR flux. Yes, in another of nature's apparent paradoxes, a solar flare can decrease ground level cosmic ray counts. And the effect on clouds is ...
40. electroken at 17:28 PM on 21 February, 2011
    Which came first, the chicken or the egg? Can it be proven that the CO2 rose before the warming in the past or did it rise as a result of the warming of the oceans which then gave off the CO2? I have understood that the rising CO2 levels do not proceed the observed warming and actually lag it in most cases where tests are done with core samples etc. I keep an open mind myself.
41. scaddenp at 17:33 PM on 21 February, 2011
    electroken - please see CO2 lag temperature for answer. This has nothing to do with cosmic rays. Short answer CO2 can be both forcing and feedback.
42. JoeRG at 14:39 PM on 18 May, 2011
    A new study could heat up the discussion again, I think.
43. Philip Shehan at 15:26 PM on 26 May, 2011
    There is a discussion on Roy Spencer's blog (hope I got the link process right) on a recent though as yet non peer reviewed study by Svensmark. Any comments?
44. Riccardo at 15:47 PM on 26 May, 2011
    Philip Shehan given that gcr count didn't change in the last 70 years or so, Spencer's hypothesis can not change the picture of the last decades. It might only have an effect before then, if any.
45. Philip Shehan at 18:49 PM on 26 May, 2011
    Thanks Riccardo
46. arch stanton at 00:32 AM on 28 May, 2011
    JoeRG and anyone reading this discussion might be interested in the new topic posted at RC
47. Philippe Chantreau at 02:31 AM on 28 May, 2011
    THanks for that link Arch. The real problems with the GCR hypothesis are unresolved. The effect is weak at best, whatever particles are created are too small, and no possibility for a particle growth process has been put forth yet.
48. arch stanton at 06:59 AM on 28 May, 2011
    Philippe - I was hoping you would notice this since we had this discussion on another thread a few weeks ago. You were right. ;-)
49. pixelDust at 01:46 AM on 22 July, 2011
    Denier sites are all over this recent interview with Rolf-Dieter Heuer, claiming it means scientists are being "censored" and "gagged". Here's the quote in question as rendered by Google Translate: "The results will be published shortly. I asked the colleague to make the results clear, however, not to interpret. This would go immediately into the highly political arena of the climate change debate. One has to be clear that it is the cosmic radiation is only one of many parameters." It's in reference to the CLOUD project's investigations on the influence of cosmic rays on cloud formation. Since his remarks have already become a denier talking point, you might consider addressing them in this article. At the end, you say: "Even if these difficulties can be resolved and the causality link between cosmic rays and cloud formation is proven, this would mean cosmic rays would have been imposing a cooling influence on climate over the last few decades." So for the sake of argument, let's say the latest CLOUD results find that "causality link." Why the "do not interpret" instruction from Heuer? What does it actually mean, in the context of scientific research and publication of results?
50. Bob Lacatena at 06:11 AM on 22 July, 2011
    49, pixelDust, The interview is awfully thin, and only touches on CLOUD for one very brief question. Refer to this post on RealClimate about some other recent, similar research. Basically, in order to build the GCR theory into something remotely respectable, they have to first create all of the building blocks that are similar to an understanding of greenhouse gas theory. In the case of GCR's, they need a precise mechanism, with all of the intermediate steps needed, to show how GCR's actually, mechanically affect cloud formation. Now, his one comment about not interpreting the results probably (I expect) speaks to the fact that the CERN research can only show some very small pieces of the puzzle. They need lots and lots of pieces to compile it into a workable, fully functioning GCR theory. So to over interpret any one step, in either direction, would be foolish. Some of the proposed experiments (to show their level and nature... I took this from some rather old documents on the CLOUD website):
    • We will investigate the clustering of trace gas molecules onto ions. The trace gas molecules will either be formed by the ionising particle beam in pure artificial air or be introduced directly into the chamber.
    • Aerosols of a well defined size and with typical atmospheric composition (NaCl, (NH4)2SO4, H2SO4) can be produced with standard aerosol generation techniques (Section 4.4.3). Experiments will be performed to examine the activation of these aerosols into cloud droplets.
    • These experiments will first quantify the poorly-known production rates of a) nitric oxide (NO) and b) hydroxyl radicals (OH) by cosmic radiation. The former will involve pure artificial air and the latter will involve argon and water vapour. Subsequently we will investigate the effects of these vapours on the nucleation and growth of aerosols.
    • These studies concern the formation of ice nuclei in supercooled vapours at low temperatures. The expansion chamber will be used to create a supercooled cloud by expansion and growth of drops at temperatures below 260 K. ... In addition to experiments with supercooled liquid droplets already present(freezing nucleation),we will also investigate ice nucleation without pre-existing droplets(deposition nucleation).
    • These experiments concern the deposition nucleation of nitric acid and water vapours onto ion clusters to form nitric acid hydrates. Particles composed of such hydrates are thought to be the principal component of the polar stratospheric clouds that initiate the destruction of ozone.
    So, in a nutshell, nothing earth shattering in any direction can come from current CLOUD experiments. They are necessary first baby steps to creating a plausibly complete GCR theory (which in and of itself shows how sicence-fictiony the theory is at its current stage). Which means, in a nutshell, that the deniers are getting their undies all in a bunch over nothing, just because they love to cry wolf conspiracy.

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