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Climate Hustle

Ari Jokimäki

Ari lives in Finland and has a BSc in computer engineering. He has been studying climate science as a hobbyist and runs his own blog (AGW Observer). In Skeptical Science Ari translates articles to Finnish, hosts New Research From Last Week series, and writes other articles every now and then.

Publications

Gavin C. Cawley, Kevin Cowtan, Robert G. Way, Peter Jacobs, Ari Jokimäki (2015), On a minimal model for estimating climate sensitivity, Ecological Modelling, 297, 20-25, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.10.018.

Mark Richardson, Martin B. Stolpe, Peter Jacobs, Ari Jokimäki, Kevin Cowtan (2014), Comment on “Quantitatively evaluating the effects of CO2 emission on temperature rise”, Quaternary International, Volume 336, 26 June 2014, Pages 176–179, DOI: 10.1016/j.quaint.2014.04.054.

Ari Jokimäki, Harley Orr, David G. Russell (2008). A catalogue of M51 type galaxy associations. Astrophysics and Space Science, June 2008, Volume 315, Issue 1-4, pp 249-283. DOI: 10.1007/s10509-008-9826-3. [full text and images]

 

Recent blog posts


New research, January 7-13, 2019

Posted on 18 January 2019 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts 

Mankind

Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest

Migration as a human affair: Integrating individual stress thresholds into quantitative models of climate migration (open access)

Dynamical malaria forecasts are skillful at regional and local scales in Uganda up to 4 months ahead (open access)

Climate change: thinking small islands beyond Small Island Developing States (SIDS)

Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios (open access)

Strengthening the science-policy interface for climate adaptation: stakeholder perceptions in Cameroon (open access)

A network approach for moving from planning to implementation in climate change adaptation: Evidence from southern Mexico

Identifying climate service production constraints to adaptation decision-making in Sweden

Visualizing the interconnections among climate risks (open access)

The nonlinear relationship between temperature changes and economic development for individual provinces in China

Optimized sowing time windows mitigate climate risks for oats production under cool semi-arid growing conditions

Representative agricultural pathways, climate change, and agricultural land uses: an application to the Pacific Northwest of the USA

Adaptive irrigation measures in response to extreme weather events: empirical evidence from the North China plain

Read more...

0 comments


New research, January 1-6, 2019

Posted on 11 January 2019 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

Temperature, precipitation, wind

Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic

Comparison of the temporal variability of summer temperature and rainfall as it relates to climate indices in southern Quebec (Canada)

Analyses of temperature and precipitation in the Indian Jammu and Kashmir region for the 1980–2016 period: implications for remote influence and extreme events (open access)

New insights into the rainfall variability in the tropical Andes on seasonal and interannual time scales

Analyzing the variation of the precipitation of coastal areas of eastern China and its association with sea surface temperature (SST) of other seas

Effect of empirical correction of sea-surface temperature biases on the CRCM5-simulated climate and projected climate changes over North America (open access)

Spatial structure and temporal variability of a surface urban heat island in cold continental climate

A Dynamical Perspective on Atmospheric Temperature Variability and its Response to Climate Change

Read more...

0 comments


New research, December 24-31, 2018

Posted on 4 January 2019 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

Temperature, precipitation, wind

Trend analysis of climate time series: A review of methods (open access)

Strong but intermittent spatial covariations in tropical land temperature

Intercomparison of long-term sea surface temperature analyses using the GHRSST Multi-Product Ensemble (GMPE) system

The role of buoy and Argo observations in two SST analyses in the global and tropical Pacific oceans

Linear trends in temperature extremes in China, with an emphasis on non-Gaussian and serially dependent characteristics (open access)

Effect of Tibetan Plateau heating on summer extreme precipitation in eastern China

Observed Decadal Transition in Trend of Autumn Rainfall over Central China in the Late 1990s (open access)

Observed rainfall trends over Singapore and the Maritime Continent from the perspective of regional-scale weather regimes

Read more...

3 comments


New research, December 17-23, 2018

Posted on 28 December 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Couple of hiatus papers (including Skeptical Science authors)

A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence (open access)

The 'pause' in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations (open access)

Climate change mitigation

Climate change communication

Framing Climate Uncertainty: Frame Choices Reveal and Influence Climate Change Beliefs

It is Always Dry Here: Examining Perceptions about Drought and Climate Change in the Southern High Plains

Relationship‐building between climate scientists and publics as an alternative to information transfer (open access)

Climate Policy

What future for the voluntary carbon offset market after Paris? An explorative study based on the Discursive Agency Approach

Quantifying the potential for consumer-oriented policy to reduce European and foreign carbon emissions (open access)

Norms and flexibility: Comparing two mitigation policies implemented in Shanghai

Review and assessment of energy policy developments in Chile

Interactions between federal and state policies for reducing vehicle emissions

Read more...

0 comments


New research, December 10-16, 2018

Posted on 21 December 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts 

Mankind

Estimates of present and future asthma emergency department visits associated with exposure to oak, birch, and grass pollen in the United States (open access)

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Terror Management Theory and mortality awareness: A missing link in climate response studies?

Diurnal temperature range and mortality in Tabriz (the northwest of Iran)

Explaining differential vulnerability to climate change: A social science review (open access)

Climate change impacts on hydrological services in southern California (open access)

Adaptations to extreme storm events by conservation organizations

Insignificant effect of climate change on winter haze pollution in Beijing (open access)

Cork rings suggest how to manage Quercus suber to mitigate the effects of climate changes

Salt intrusion adaptation measures for sustainable agricultural development under climate change effects: a case of ca mau peninsula, vietnam (open access)

Why could the coffee crop endure climate change and global warming to a greater extent than previously estimated? (open access)

Past and future changes in regional crop water requirements in Northwest China

Using a Multi-Year Temporal Climate Analogue Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Park Visitation

Economic Growth Effects of Alternative Climate Change Impact Channels in Economic Modeling

Promise and paradox of metropolitan regional climate adaptation

A community-based evaluation of population growth and agro-pastoralist resilience in Sub-Saharan drylands

Read more...

0 comments


New research, December 3-9, 2018

Posted on 14 December 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

Temperature, precipitation, wind

Hot days and tropical nights in Nigeria: trends and associated large-scale features

Recent decadal variability of daily observed temperatures in Hindukush, Karakoram and Himalaya region in northern Pakistan

Anomalous holiday precipitation over southern China (open access)

Global warming from 1.5°C to 2°C will lead to increase in precipitation intensity in China

The role of aerosols and greenhouse gases in Sahel drought and recovery (open access)

Contrasting monthly trends of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and related parameters

Global terrestrial stilling: does Earth’s greening play a role? (open access)

Assessing the climate change impact on the North African offshore surface wind and coastal low-level jet using coupled and uncoupled regional climate simulations (open access)

Read more...

3 comments


New research, November 26 - December 2, 2018

Posted on 7 December 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change mitigation

Emission scenario analysis for China under the global 1.5 °C target

Climate change communication

Attribution matters: Revisiting the link between extreme weather experience and climate change mitigation responses

Characterising climate change discourse on social media during extreme weather events

Public acceptance of renewable energies and energy autonomy: A comparative study in the French, German and Swiss Upper Rhine region

Climate Policy

Petroleum industry tax incentives and energy policy implications: A comparison between Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea

Making incentive policies more effective: An agent-based model for energy-efficiency retrofit in China

The significance of political culture, economic context and instrument type for climate policy support: a cross-national study (open access)

Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets?

Urbanization in the time of climate change: Examining the response of Indian cities

Carbon neutral policy in action: the case of Bhutan

Multi-level governance and power in climate change policy networks (open access)

Read more...

0 comments


New research, November 19-25, 2018

Posted on 29 November 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts 

Mankind

Decreased takeoff performance of aircraft due to climate change

Failure to protect beaches under slowly rising sea level (open access)

Heading for the hills: climate-driven community relocations in the Solomon Islands and Alaska provide insight for a 1.5 °C future

Quantification and evaluation of intra-urban heat-stress variability in Seoul, Korea

Characterizing heat stress on livestock using the temperature humidity index (THI)—prospects for a warmer Caribbean (open access)

Adaptation action and research in glaciated mountain systems: Are they enough to meet the challenge of climate change?

Assessing the alignment of national-level adaptation plans to the Paris Agreement

A framework for assessing community adaptation to climate change in a fisheries context

Beyond 1.5 °C: vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies for Caribbean Small Island Developing States

Constraints on farmer adaptability in the Iowa-Cedar River Basin

Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein (open access)

Livestock productivity as indicator of vulnerability to climate hazards: a Mongolian case study

Simple scaling of climate inputs allows robust extrapolation of modelled wheat yield risk at a continental scale (open access)

Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections

Future climatic suitability of the Emilia-Romagna (Italy) region for grape production

Yield potential definition of the chilling requirement reveals likely underestimation of the risk of climate change on winter chill accumulation

Climate change impacts on critical international transportation assets of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS): the case of Jamaica and Saint Lucia

Comparative analyses of flood damage models in three Asian countries: towards a regional flood risk modelling

Read more...

0 comments


New research, November 12-18, 2018

Posted on 23 November 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

Seasonal climatic effects and feedbacks of anthropogenic heat release due to global energy consumption with CAM5

A method for investigating the relative importance of three components in overall uncertainty of climate projections

Temperature, precipitation, wind

A Recent Shift Toward an El Niño‐Like Ocean State in the Tropical Pacific and the Resumption of Ocean Warming

Precipitation Characteristic Changes due to Global Warming in a High‐Resolution (16‐km) ECMWF Simulation

Investigating the causes of increased 20th-century fall precipitation over the southeastern United States

Global observational evidence of strong linkage between dew point temperature and precipitation extremes

Wind over the Adriatic Region in CORDEX Climate Change Scenarios

Simulating Arctic 2-m air temperature and its linear trends using the HIRHAM5 regional climate model

Regional trend changes in recent surface warming

Comparison of land–ocean warming ratios in updated observed records and CMIP5 climate models (open access)

Read more...

1 comments


New research, November 5-11, 2018

Posted on 16 November 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change mitigation

Zero CO2 emissions for an ultra-large city by 2050: case study for Beijing

Climate change communication

Developing a model of climate change behavior among adolescents

Petro-hegemony and the matrix of resistance: What can Standing Rock’s Water Protectors teach us about organizing for climate justice in the United States?

Information leverage: The adoption of clean cooking fuel in Bhutan

Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change (open access)

Climate Policy

When less is more: limits to international transfers under article 6 of the Paris Agreement (open access)

Combining Carbon Taxation and Offset Payments: A New Approach to Climate Policy in Low-Income Countries

Cap-and-trade versus carbon taxes: which market mechanism gets the most attention?

Empirical assessment of sustainable energy markets in the EU-28

Active Learning and Optimal Climate Policy

Evaluating the quality of municipal climate change plans in Canada

Read more...

1 comments


New research, October 29 - November 4, 2018

Posted on 9 November 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts 

Mankind

Altered Disease Risk from Climate Change (A special issue in EcoHealth)

Climate change perception: an analysis of climate change and risk perceptions among farmer types of Indian Western Himalayas

Climate change adaptation and mitigation – a hitherto neglected gender-sensitive public health perspective

Associations between ambient temperature and daily hospital admissions for rheumatic heart disease in Shanghai, China

Investigation on fatal accidents in Chinese construction industry between 2004 and 2016

Drivers of diversity in human thermal perception – A review for holistic comfort models (open access)

Quantifying the effect of rain events on outdoor thermal comfort in a high-density city, Hong Kong

Bridging Research and Policy on Climate Change and Conflict

Read more...

0 comments


New research, October 22-28, 2018

Posted on 2 November 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

Temperature, precipitation, wind

Radiosondes show that after decades of cooling the lower stratosphere is now warming

Verification of an approximate thermodynamic equation with application to study on Arctic stratospheric temperature changes

Global Wind Speed and Wave Height Extremes Derived from Long-duration Satellite Records

The interannual variability of wind energy resources across China and its relationship to large‐scale circulation changes

Changes in Canada's Climate: Trends in Indices Based on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data (open access)

Recent trends of surface air temperatures over Kenya from 1971 to 2010

Central European air temperature: driving force analysis and causal influence of NAO

Temporal trends in absolute and relative extreme temperature events across North America

Projected extreme temperature and precipitation of the Great Lakes Basin

Spatiotemporal characteristics of future changes in precipitation and temperature in Central Asia

Modeling climate change impacts on precipitation in arid regions of Pakistan: a non-local model output statistics downscaling approach

Decadal Variability in Summer Precipitation over Eastern China and its Response to Sensible Heat over the Tibetan Plateau since the Early 2000s

Impact of urbanization on hourly precipitation in Beijing, China: Spatiotemporal patterns and causes

Increasing influence of central Pacific El Niño on the inter‐decadal variation of spring rainfall in northern Taiwan and southern China since 1980 (open access)

Predictability of Extreme Precipitation in Western U.S. Watersheds Based on Atmospheric River Occurrence, Intensity, and Duration

Read more...

0 comments


New research, October 15-21, 2018

Posted on 26 October 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change mitigation

Climate change communication

From climates multiple to climate singular: Maintaining policy-relevance in the IPCC synthesis report

Audience Segments in Environmental and Science Communication: Recent Findings and Future Perspectives (open access) 

Energy production

An analysis of the historical trends in nuclear power plant construction costs: The Japanese experience

Community financing of renewable energy projects in Austria and Switzerland: Profiles of potential investors

Life cycle inventory of power producing technologies and power grids at regional grid level in India

Social implications of palm oil production through social life cycle perspectives in Johor, Malaysia

Like having an electric car on the roof: Domesticating PV solar panels in Norway (open access)

Ranking renewable energy production methods based on economic and environmental criteria using multi-criteria decision analysis

Read more...

1 comments


New research, October 8-14, 2018

Posted on 19 October 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts 

Mankind

Climate change and summer thermal comfort in China

Built-up area and population density: Two Essential Societal Variables to address climate hazard impact (open access)

Response of crop yield to different time-scales of drought in the United States: Spatio-temporal patterns and climatic and environmental drivers

A systematic review of how vulnerability of smallholder agricultural systems to changing climate is assessed in Africa (open access)

Prediction of drought-induced reduction of agricultural productivity in Chile from MODIS, rainfall estimates, and climate oscillation indices

Drought and its impacts in Ethiopia (open access)

How do staff motivation and workplace environment affect capacity of governments to adapt to climate change in developing countries?

The role of the private sector and citizens in urban climate change adaptation: Evidence from a global assessment of large cities (open access)

Coral Reef Island Initiation and Development Under Higher Than Present Sea Levels

Read more...

0 comments


New research, October 1-7, 2018

Posted on 12 October 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

Understanding the abrupt climate change in the mid-1970s from a phase-space transform perspective

Temperature, precipitation, wind

Distinguishing trends and shifts from memory in climate data

Persistence of observed air temperatures in Iceland

Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends (open access)

Establishment of a long-term lake-surface temperature dataset within the European Alps extending back to 1880 (open access)

Spatially variable warming of the Laurentian Great Lakes: an interaction of bathymetry and climate

Daily mean temperature estimate at the US SURFRAD stations as an average of the maximum and minimum temperatures

Importance of the El Niño teleconnection to the 21st century California wintertime extreme precipitation increase

Observed trends in temperature and rainfall in Bangladesh using pre-whitening approach

Later wet seasons with more intense rainfall over Africa under future climate change

Assessment of projected agro-climatic indices over Awun river basin, Nigeria for the late twenty-first century (open access)

“Dry gets drier, wet gets wetter”: A case study over the arid regions of central Asia

Read more...

0 comments


New research, September 24-30, 2018

Posted on 5 October 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change mitigation

Climate change communication

Enduring Extremes? Polar Vortex, Drought, and Climate Change Beliefs

Not in my back yard: Egocentrism and climate change skepticism across the globe

Climate Policy

Environmental integrity of international carbon market mechanisms under the Paris Agreement (open access)

Altruism and Global Environmental Taxes (open access)

International trade and the distribution of economy-wide benefits from the disbursement of climate finance

Energy production

Current perspectives on nuclear energy as a global climate change mitigation option

Changes in soil organic carbon stocks after conversion from forest to oil palm plantations in Malaysian Borneo (open access)

Curtailment of renewable energy in Northwest China and market-based solutions

Assessing the impact of drought on the emissions- and water-intensity of California's transitioning power sector

Read more...

0 comments


New research, September 17-23, 2018

Posted on 28 September 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts 

Mankind

Bayesian estimates for the mapping of dengue hotspots and estimation of the risk of disease epidemic in Northeast Brazil

Effects of climate change-related heat stress on labor productivity in South Korea

Climatic preferences for beach tourism: an empirical study on Greek islands

Estimation of economic losses from tropical cyclones in China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming using the regional climate model COSMO‐CLM

Mapping the need for adaptation: assessing drought vulnerability using the livelihood vulnerability index approach in a mid-hill region of Nepal

Unavoidable solutions for coastal adaptation in Reunion Island (Indian Ocean)

Co-producing UK climate change adaptation policy: An analysis of the 2012 and 2017 UK Climate Change Risk Assessments

Behavioral adaptation to climate change in wildfire‐prone forests

Assessing real options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change (open access)

Climate change impact on Mexico wheat production

Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 °C Stabilization Scenarios

Climate change as a motivating factor for farm-adjustments: rethinking the link (open access)

Ratooning as an adaptive management tool for climatic change in rice systems along a north-south transect in the southern Mississippi valley

Read more...

0 comments


Retraction of Florides et al. (2013)

Posted on 25 September 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

About a year ago I wrote about my dealings with a paper by Florides et al. in a four part article here at SkS (part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4). I had found out that the paper in question was largely created by copy/pasting passages of texts from various sources and that the paper contained a lot of false claims and other flaws.

I had communicated my findings to Elsevier, who originally had published the paper, but as I described in part four of the article series, Elsevier did not do anything about the paper.

Since publishing my article series there have been some developments, which I will describe briefly below, but the most recent development is that the paper got retracted three and a half years after I lodged a complaint.

Recent developments

First of all, there was an article on this in Retraction Watch. The article describes mainly the same issues as my article series, but there's also some new information, such as the mention that the Editor-in-Chief of the journal had been replaced.

The new Editor-in-Chief, Professor Aoife M. Foley, contacted me to let me know that they will have another look at the issue. After that I didn't hear from the journal again, but recently I noticed that the journal page for the paper in question now says that the paper has been retracted.

The retraction

Apparently, the paper was retracted on August 23, 2018, or at least the retraction notice shows that date. The reason for the retraction is given as:

Read more...

1 comments


New research, September 10-16, 2018

Posted on 21 September 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change 

Historicizing climate change—engaging new approaches to climate and history (open access)

State of the Climate in 2017 (open access)

Temperature, precipitation, wind

The strengthening of Amazonian precipitation during the wet season driven by tropical sea surface temperature forcing (open access)

Observed differences between near-surface air and skin temperatures using satellite and ground-based data

Features of extreme precipitation at Progress station, Antarctica

Extreme events

Rainfall from tropical cyclones: high-resolution simulations and seasonal forecasts

Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on global coastal flooding (open access)

Enhancing drought monitoring and early warning for the UK through stakeholder co-enquiries

Wet avalanches: long-term evolution in the Western Alps under climate and human forcing (open access)

Proxy‐based assessment of strength and frequency of meteotsunamis in future climate

Read more...

0 comments


New research, September 3-9, 2018

Posted on 14 September 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change mitigation

Climate change communication

Inconvenience vs. rationality. Reflections on different faces of climate contrarianism in Poland and Norway

A new, valid measure of climate change understanding: associations with risk perception

Climate Policy

Optimal design of carbon tax to stimulate CCS investment in China's coal‐fired power plants: A real options analysis

Measuring success: improving assessments of aggregate GHG emissions reduction goals (open access)

Gender and climate policy: a discursive institutional analysis of Ethiopia’s climate resilient strategy

Energy production

Has coal use peaked in China: Near-term trends in China's coal consumption

Estimating the value of offshore wind along the United States’ Eastern Coast (open access)

A new approach for assessing synergies of solar and wind power: implications for West Africa (open access)

Governance of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): accounting, rewarding, and the Paris agreement

Linking ecosystem services with epibenthic biodiversity change following installation of offshore wind farms (open access)

Renewable Energy Cooperatives as an instrument towards the energy transition in Spain

Renewable energy in Turkey: Great potential, low but increasing utilization, and an empirical analysis on renewable energy-growth nexus

Read more...

1 comments


New research, August 27 - September 2, 2018

Posted on 7 September 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts 

Mankind

Climate Change and Heat-Related Excess Mortality in the Eastern USA

Climate change impacts on peak building cooling energy demand in a coastal megacity (open access)

Flood prediction and mitigation in coastal tourism areas, a case study: Hurghada, Egypt

Drivers of response to extreme weather warnings among marine fishermen

Are farmers’ adaptations enhancing food production? Evidence from China

Climate trends, risks and coping strategies in smallholder farming systems in Uganda (open access)

Views from two mountains: exploring climate change impacts on traditional farming communities of Eastern Africa highlands through participatory scenarios (open access)

Implementing climate change adaptation: lessons from India’s national adaptation fund on climate change (NAFCC)

Broadening understandings of drought – The climate vulnerability of farmworkers and rural communities in California (USA) (open access)

Traumatic and Nontraumatic Driving Accidents Due to Dry Spells in Northern Iran: A Time Series Analysis

Climate change beliefs in an agricultural context: what is the role of values held by farming and non-farming groups?

Read more...

0 comments


New research, August 20-26, 2018

Posted on 31 August 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

Effect of coupled global climate models sea surface temperature biases on simulated climate of the western United States (open access)

Temperature, precipitation, wind

Global bimodal precipitation seasonality: A systematic overview

Spatiotemporal variations of annual shallow soil temperature on the Tibetan Plateau during 1983–2013

Lake surface water temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau from 2001–2015: A sensitive indicator of the warming climate

Estimating changes in temperature distributions in a large ensemble of climate simulations using quantile regression

Surface air temperature variability over the Arabian Peninsula and its links to circulation patterns

Urbanization effects on changes in the observed air temperatures during 1977–2014 in China

Annual cycle of temperature trends in Europe, 1961–2000

Analyses of the oceanic heat content during 1980–2014 and satellite‐era cyclones over Bay of Bengal

Read more...

3 comments


New research, August 13-19, 2018

Posted on 24 August 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change mitigation

Climate change communication

Divergent Perspectives on Expert Disagreement: Preliminary Evidence from Climate Science, Climate Policy, Astrophysics, and Public Opinion

Climate Policy

Simple Rules for Climate Policy and Integrated Assessment (open access)

Research on carbon price in emissions trading scheme: a bibliometric analysis

Does carbon emissions trading affect the financial performance of high energy-consuming firms in China?

Improving the energy efficiency of the New Zealand economy: A policy comparison with other renewable-rich countries

Energy production

Valuation of CCS investment in China's coal‐fired power plants based on a compound real options model

Impact of renewable energies on the indian power system: Energy meteorological influences and case study of eefects on existing power fleet for rajasthan state

Read more...

0 comments


New research, August 5-12, 2018

Posted on 17 August 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts

Climate change and future wildfire in the western USA: an ecological approach to non‐stationarity (open access)

Influence of uncertainties in burned area estimates on modeled wildland fire PM2.5 and ozone pollution in the contiguous U.S.

Mankind

Coastal homeowners in a changing climate

Indigenous impacts on North American Great Plains fire regimes of the past millennium

Measuring temperature-related mortality using endogenously determined thresholds

Assessing thermal comfort in tourist attractions through objective and subjective procedures based on ISO 7730 standard: A field study

Global Freshwater availability below normal conditions and population impact under 1.5°C and 2°C stabilization scenarios

Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps

Effects of climate change and agronomic practice on changes in wheat phenology

Climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors determine connectivity between current and future climate analogs in North America (open access)

An institutional analysis to address climate change adaptation in Tenerife (Canary Islands) (open access)

Economic sector loss from influential tropical cyclones and relationship to associated rainfall and wind speed in China

Re-imagining the potential of effective drought responses in South Africa

Understanding the current state of collaboration in the production and dissemination of adaptation knowledge in Namibia

Dynamic adaptive pathways in downscaled climate change scenarios (open access)

On the evaluation of adaptation practices: a transdisciplinary exploration of drought measures in Chile

Read more...

1 comments


New research, July 30 - August 4, 2018

Posted on 10 August 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

Temperature, precipitation, wind

Optimal Ranking Regime Analysis of U.S. Summer Temperature and Degree-Days: 1895-2015

Detectable Impacts of the Past Half‐Degree Global Warming on Summertime Hot Extremes in China

Time series analysis of quarterly rainfall and temperature (1900–2012) in sub-Saharan African countries

Trends of the observed temperature and its variations in the Tamil Nadu State of India

Roles of SST versus internal atmospheric variability in winter extreme precipitation variability along the U.S. West Coast

Read more...

0 comments


New research, July 2-29, 2018

Posted on 3 August 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change mitigation

Climate change communication

Place, proximity, and perceived harm: extreme weather events and views about climate change

Teaching climate change in middle schools and high schools: investigating STEM education’s deficit model

Cool dudes in Norway: climate change denial among conservative Norwegian men

Emission savings

How important are future marine and shipping aerosol emissions in a warming Arctic summer and autumn? (open access)

Work time reduction and economic democracy as climate change mitigation strategies: or why the climate needs a renewed labor movement

The remaining potential for energy savings in UK households

Read more...

0 comments


New research, June 25 - July 1, 2018

Posted on 6 July 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts

Mankind

Quantifying transnational climate impact exposure: New perspectives on the global distribution of climate risk

The effects of increasing surface reflectivity on heat-related mortality in Greater Montreal Area, Canada

Synthesis and Review: an inter-method comparison of climate change impacts on agriculture (open access)

Future warming increases probability of globally synchronized maize production shocks

Satellite sun‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence detects early response of winter wheat to heat stress in the Indian Indo‐Gangetic Plains

Statistical modelling of crop yield in Central Europe using climate data and remote sensing vegetation indices

Comparison of climatic impacts transmission from temperature to grain harvests and economies between the Han (206 BC–AD 220) and Tang (AD 618–907) dynasties

The effects of tactical message inserts on risk communication with fish farmers in Northern Thailand

Spatial assessment of maize physical drought vulnerability in sub-Saharan Africa: Linking drought exposure with crop failure (open access)

Rescaling drought mitigation in rural Sri Lanka

A stakeholder-based assessment of barriers to climate change adaptation in a water-scarce basin in Spain (open access)

Climate change adaptation: Linking indigenous knowledge with western science for effective adaptation

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New research, June 18-24, 2018

Posted on 29 June 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

On the Time of Emergence of Tropical Width Change

Modeling the climate and carbon systems to estimate the social cost of carbon

Temperature, precipitation, wind

On the linearity of local and regional temperature changes from 1.5°C to 2°C of global warming

Changes in climate extremes over West and Central Africa at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming (open access)

How have daily climate extremes changed in the recent past over northeastern Argentina?

Ensemble-based CMIP5 simulations of West African summer monsoon rainfall: current climate and future changes

Secular variation of rainfall regime in the central region of Argentina

On the determination of global ocean wind and wave climate from satellite observations

Future Changes of Wind Speed and Wind Energy Potentials in EURO‐CORDEX Ensemble Simulations

Seasonal contrast of the dominant factors for spatial distribution of land surface temperature in urban areas

Extreme events

Projected changes in tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean under different extents of global warming (open access)

Read more...

5 comments


New research, June 11-17, 2018

Posted on 22 June 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change mitigation

Climate change communication

Climate Hypocrisies: A Comparative Study of News Discourse

What makes them believe in the low-carbon energy transition? Exploring corporate perceptions of the credibility of climate policy mixes (open access)

Analyzing the factors that influence U.S. public support for exporting natural gas

Turkish public preferences for energy

Nature Articulations in Norwegian Advertising Discourse: A Depoliticized Discourse of Climate Change

Weather, Climate, and Narrative: A Relational Model for Democratizing Risk Communication

Cold winters warming? Perceptions of climate change in the North Country

Read more...

1 comments


New research, June 4-10, 2018

Posted on 15 June 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts

Mankind

The Inequality of Climate Change From 1.5 to 2°C of Global Warming (open access)

"The Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming well below 2°C above preindustrial levels with a preferred ambitious 1.5°C target. Developing countries, especially small island nations, pressed for the 1.5°C target to be adopted, but who will suffer the largest changes in climate if we miss this target? Here we show that exceeding the 1.5°C global warming target would lead to the poorest experiencing the greatest local climate changes. Under these circumstances greater support for climate adaptation to prevent poverty growth would be required."

Short-term effect of tropospheric ozone on daily mortality in Spain

Prediction of mortality resulted from NO2 concentration in Tehran by Air Q+ software and artificial neural network

Indicators of climate change in agricultural systems (open access)

Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems: sensitivity to regional impact and trade expansion scenarios (open access)

The role of scientific expertise in local adaptation to projected sea level rise (open access)

Managing the risk of extreme climate events in Australian major wheat production systems

Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050 (open access)

Understanding the divergences between farmer’s perception and meteorological records regarding climate change: a review

Influence of season and climatic variables on testicular cytology, semen quality and melatonin concentrations in crossbred bucks reared under subtropical climate

Strategic adaptation pathway planning to manage sea-level rise and changing coastal flood risk

Predicting shifting sustainability trade‐offs in marine finfish aquaculture under climate change

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8 comments


New research, May 28 - June 3, 2018

Posted on 8 June 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

Overcoming early career barriers to interdisciplinary climate change research

Projected climate over the Greater Horn of Africa under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming (open access)

Temperature, precipitation, wind

Analysis of past changes in wet bulb temperature in relation to snow making conditions based on long term observations Austria and Germany

"The number of snow making days changes least in October and most in December when averaged over all stations. Very high stations show more change in October and less change in December than the lower stations. Several stations show a significant decrease of snow making days per month, particularly in more recent sub-periods, but trends vary strongly between stations and for different sub-periods. Sub-periods with positive trends are present in earlier phases of the time series at some stations and inter-annual variability is generally 1–2 orders of magnitude greater than detected trends."

On the concordance of 21st century wind-wave climate projections

Spatiotemporal extremes of temperature and precipitation during 1960–2015 in the Yangtze River Basin (China) and impacts on vegetation dynamics

Comparison of two long-term and high-resolution satellite precipitation datasets in Xinjiang, China

The effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming on Africa in the CORDEX ensemble (open access)

Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan

Spatial and temporal stability of temperature in the first-level basins of China during 1951–2013

Quantification of the changes in intensity and frequency of hourly extreme rainfall attributed climate change in Oman

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New research, May 21-27, 2018

Posted on 1 June 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change mitigation

Climate change communication

Climate change as a polarizing cue: Framing effects on public support for low-carbon energy policies

"• We evaluate how framing affects support for four low-carbon energy policies among U.S. partisans.

• For Republicans, a climate change frame lowers support relative to pollution or security frames.

• We find framing effects for renewable energy, carbon tax, and fuel efficiency policies, but not nuclear power.

• No framing effects are observed among Democrats or Independents.

• Results support a motivated reasoning rather than heuristic processing mechanism."

Emission savings

Impact of cutting meat intake on hidden greenhouse gas emissions in an import-reliant city (open access)

Domestic energy consumption and climate change mitigation

Carbon footprints of grain-, forage-, and energy-based cropping systems in the North China plain

Exploring the development of electric vehicles under policy incentives: A scenario-based system dynamics model

Profiling energy efficiency tendency: A case for Turkish households

Rising wages and energy consumption transition in rural China

Framing policy on low emissions vehicles in terms of economic gains: Might the most straightforward gain be delivered by supply chain activity to support refuelling? (open access)

Climate change and the building sector: Modelling and energy implications to an office building in southern Europe

Energy production

Promises and limitations of nuclear fission energy in combating climate change

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3 comments


New research, May 14-20, 2018

Posted on 25 May 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts

Mankind

Assessing the Impacts of Extreme Agricultural Droughts in China Under Climate and Socioeconomic Changes (open access)

"Our simulations project a rise of 2.5~3.3% in average rice, maize, and wheat productivity before 2050 but decrease thereafter if climate warming continues."

Climate change adaptation strategies and food productivity in Nepal: a counterfactual analysis

"Based on a survey of 720 farming households in Nepal, our results show that adoption of adaptation strategies has significantly increased food productivity. Among the adaptation strategies, soil and water management are shown to have the largest impact on food productivity followed by adjustments to the timing of farm operations and crop and varietal adjustment."

Strengthening climate change adaptation capacity in Africa- case studies from six major African cities and policy implications

Adaptation to climate change at local level in Europe: An overview

The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers: a case study of Great Britain (open access)

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0 comments


New research, May 7-13, 2018

Posted on 18 May 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

Temperature, precipitation, wind

Comparing daily temperature averaging methods: the role of surface and atmosphere variables in determining spatial and seasonal variability

Dynamical analysis of extreme precipitation in the US northeast based on large-scale meteorological patterns

Projected change in characteristics of near surface temperature inversions for southeast Australia

Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa

Unidirectional trends in annual and seasonal climate and extremes in Egypt

An asymmetric rainfall response to ENSO in East Asia

Mixed precipitation occurrences over southern Québec, Canada, under warmer climate conditions using a regional climate model

Extreme events

Estimation of the compound hazard severity of tropical cyclones over coastal China during 1949–2011 with copula function

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2 comments


New research, April 30 - May 6, 2018

Posted on 11 May 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change mitigation

Climate change communication

Bringing the Heat Home: Television Spots about Local Impacts Reduce Global Warming Denialism

"Respondents exposed to the campaign were more likely to believe that global warming is happening, to accept the scientific consensus, to be more concerned about impacts and more supportive of policy solutions."

Teaching environmental policy in an era of polarization and misrepresentation

Climate Change and Energy Technologies in Undergraduate Introductory Science Textbooks

Climate-related Community Knowledge Networks as a Tool to Increase Learning in the Context of Environmental Change (open access)

Between Guilt and Obligation: Debating the Responsibility for Climate Change and Climate Politics in the Media

Perceptions of seasonal weather are linked to beliefs about global climate change: evidence from Norway

"Respondents’ perceptions are sensitive to observed differences in both temperature and precipitation, but respondents are more likely to accurately perceive local precipitation than local temperature. Controlling for observed conditions, beliefs about global climate change had a large effect on perceptions of seasonal temperature, and smaller effects on perceptions of seasonal precipitation."

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3 comments


New research, April 23-29, 2018

Posted on 4 May 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts

1. Projected shift of Köppen–Geiger zones in the central Europe: A first insight into the implications for ecosystems and the society

"We examined a future change of Köppen–Geiger climate classification zones in central Europe in the 21st century using the high‐resolution (10 km) bias‐corrected simulations of two regional climate models following the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Temperate oceanic climate (Cfb) will remain the dominant climate type in central Europe but it will extent into higher altitudes and replace boreal or colder climate types that will practically vanish by the end of the 21st century. There is a risk of large‐scale expansion of humid subtropical (Cfa) climate in lower altitudes where 20–50% of population lives nowadays. In the end of the century the majority of arable land and permanent crops areas will be in the Cfa zone. A growing occurrence of Cfa‐like or Mediterranean climate‐like (Csa) years will reach up to 50% at some locations where 1.4 million people live today. Almost all agriculturally important areas and two thirds of the current population will be exposed to the occurrence of Cfa‐ and Csa‐like years at least once in 10 years which may result into a lower production of rain‐fed crops as it was the case of of Cfa‐ and Csa‐like years of 2000, 2012 and 2015."

2. Ground thermal and geomechanical conditions in a permafrost-affected high-latitude rock avalanche site (Polvartinden, northern Norway) (open access)

"It is likely that permafrost in and near the failure zone is presently subject to degradation. This degradation, in combination with the extreme warm year antecedent to the rock failure, is seen to have played an important role in the detaching of the Signaldalen rock avalanche."

Mankind

3. When do Indians feel hot? Internet searches indicate seasonality suppresses adaptation to heat (open access)

"State-level heat thresholds ranged from 25.9 °C in Madhya Pradesh to 31.0 °C in Orissa. Local adaptation was found to occur at state level: the higher the average temperature in a state, the higher the heat threshold; and the higher the intra-annual temperature range (warmest minus coldest month) the lower the heat threshold."

4. Planning for climigration: a framework for effective action

5. Integrated urban water management applied to adaptation to climate change

6. CoastAdapt: an adaptation decision support framework for Australia’s coastal managers (open access)

7. Moving toward 1.5°C of warming: implications for climate adaptation strategies

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1 comments


New research, April 16-22, 2018

Posted on 27 April 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

Temperature, precipitation, wind

1. Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability (open access)

"We find that eastern Europe is dominated by subdecadal SAT variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas interdecadal and multidecadal SAT variability over northern and southern Europe are thermodynamically driven by ocean temperature anomalies. Our results provide evidence that temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean are advected over land by the mean westerly winds and, hence, provide a mechanism through which ocean temperature controls the variability and provides predictability of European SAT."

2. A possible recovery of the near-surface wind speed in Eastern China during winter after 2000 and the potential causes

3. Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

4. Uganda rainfall variability and prediction

5. An analysis of spatial representativeness of air temperature monitoring stations

6. Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals (open access)

7. Concurrent increases in wet and dry extremes projected in Texas and combined effects on groundwater (open access)

Extreme events

8. Facing climate change-related extreme events in megacities of China in the context of 1.5 °C global warming

"These extreme events have shown an uptrend in China's megacities and are projected to further increase in the future. Notably, the projected intensity of extreme temperature and precipitation events in China's three urban agglomerations is lower under 1.5 °C global warming compared with 2 °C."

Read more...

1 comments


New research, April 9-15, 2018

Posted on 20 April 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change mitigation

1. Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C: a tale of turning around in no time? (open access)

2. Climate change and technology: examining opinion formation of geoengineering

3. The Water-Energy-Food Nexus: A systematic review of methods for nexus assessment (open access)

4. What is the potential of cropland albedo management in the fight against global warming? A case study based on the use of cover crops (open access)

Emission reductions

5. Comparing nutritional, economic, and environmental performances of diets according to their levels of greenhouse gas emissions

"Diets with low GHGEs were characterized by a high nutritional quality. Primary energy consumption and land occupation increased with GHGEs (from Q1: 3978 MJ/year (95%CI = 3958–3997) to Q5: 8980 MJ/year (95%CI = 8924–9036)) and (from Q1: 1693 m2/year (95%CI = 1683–1702) to Q5: 7188 m2/year (95%CI = 7139–7238)), respectively. Finally, participants with lower GHGE related-diets were the highest organic food consumers. After adjustment for sex, age, and energy intake, monetary diet cost increased with GHGEs (from Q1: 6.89€/year (95%CI = 6.84–6.93) to Q5: 7.68€/year (95%CI = 7.62–7.74))."

6. Sustainability indicators in the swine industry of the Brazilian State of Santa Catarina

7. Will China's building sector participate in emission trading system? Insights from modelling an owner's optimal carbon reduction strategies

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0 comments


New research, April 2-8, 2018

Posted on 13 April 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts

Mankind

1. Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming (open access)

"Results show that climate change has negative impacts on electricity production in most countries and for most technologies. Such impacts remain limited for a 1.5 °C warming, and roughly double for a 3 °C warming. Impacts are relatively limited for solar photovoltaic and wind power potential which may reduce up to 10%, while hydropower and thermoelectric generation may decrease by up to 20%. Generally, impacts are more severe in southern Europe than in northern Europe, inducing inequity between EU countries. We show that a higher share of renewables could reduce the vulnerability of power generation to climate change, although the variability of wind and solar PV production remains a significant challenge."

2. Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran’s population health

3. Heat stress and chickens: climate risk effects on rural poultry farming in low-income countries

"Although these birds are generally known to be hardy, it appears that some losses experienced in rural poultry farming may be a direct or indirect consequence of climate-related stresses."

4. Australian climate extremes in the 21st century according to a regional climate model ensemble: Implications for health and agriculture (open access)

"Applying published heat-health relationships to projected changes in temperature shows that increases in mortality due to high temperatures for all cities examined would occur if projected future climates occurred today." ... "Assuming no adaptation or acclimatisation, published statistical relationships between drought and national wheat yield suggest that national yields will have a less than one quarter chance of exceeding the annual historical average under far future precipitation change (excluding impacts of future temperature change and CO2 fertilization)."

Read more...

1 comments


New research, March 26 - April 1, 2018

Posted on 6 April 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

1. Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects

2. Uncertainty in projected climate change arising from uncertain fossil-fuel emission factors (open access)

3. Skillful climate forecasts of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean using model-analogs

Temperature, precipitation, and wind

4. A new integrated and homogenized global monthly land surface air temperature dataset for the period since 1900

Read more...

0 comments


New research, March 19-25, 2018

Posted on 30 March 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #80.

Climate change mitigation

1. Unlikely pioneers: creative climate change policymaking in smaller U.S. cities

"I find that local leaders reframe climate change action as a way to save money and attract economic development. Personal environmental ethics drive small town leaders to reduce greenhouse gase emissions. Citizen committees can provide technical resources and political support. Otherwise, and more subtly, citizens can create a political environment that reduces resistance to climate change policymaking."

Emission reductions

2. Healthy, affordable and climate-friendly diets in India

"We show that more than two-thirds of Indians consume insufficient micronutrients, particularly iron and Vitamin A, and to a lesser extent zinc. A greater proportion of urban households than rural households are deficient at all income levels and for all nutrients, with few exceptions. Deficiencies reduce with increasing income. Using constrained optimization, we find that households could overcome these nutrient deficiencies within their food budgets by diversifying their diets, particularly towards coarse cereals, pulses, and leafy vegetables, and away from rice. These dietary changes could reduce India’s agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by up to 25%."

3. Life cycle assessment research and application in Indonesia

"The research and application of LCA in Indonesia are still in its infancy, as partly proved by a relatively small number of publications as compared to some other Southeast Asian countries. However, there was a notable increase in publication over the last 5 years, indicating a growing interest in LCA, mainly from academics and to less extent from private sectors."

Read more...

0 comments


New research, March 12-18, 2018

Posted on 23 March 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The Figure is from paper #16.

Climate change impacts

Mankind

1. Inundation of a low-lying urban atoll island: Majuro, Marshall Islands

"The ocean-facing shorelines of Majuro experience frequent inundation caused by swell waves generated by distant storms from both the north and the south Pacific Ocean. In some instances, complete overwashing of the island by swell waves has been reported. Less frequent, although potentially far more damaging, are inundation events associated with typhoons and tropical storms, with the most recent in 1997. Inundation along the sheltered lagoon-facing shoreline of Majuro has occurred in the absence of waves due to the coincidence of high sea levels during La Niña conditions and seasonally high tides, as in 2011."

2. Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) (open access)

"An increase in heat stress up to 1 °C is observed during recent decades."

3. Impacts of rainfall extremes on wheat yield in semi-arid cropping systems in eastern Australia

4. Micro-level perception to climate change and adaptation issues: A prelude to mainstreaming climate adaptation into developmental landscape in India

5. Assessing climate change adaptation strategies—the case of drought and heat wave in the French nuclear sector

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0 comments


New research, March 5-11, 2018

Posted on 15 March 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #57.

Climate change

1. Insights into Atmospheric Predictability Through Global Convection-Permitting Model Simulations

2. Dynamical core in atmospheric model does matter in the simulation of Arctic climate

Extreme events

3. Changes in tropical cyclone activity in north Indian Ocean during satellite era (1981–2014)

"The frequency and duration of intense cyclones (wind speed >64 knots) show notable increase in recent years. However, a decreasing trend is observed in total frequency."

4. Drought persistence errors in global climate models

5. Relationship of drought frequency and severity with range of annual temperature variation

Temperature and precipitation

6. Unrealized Global Temperature Increase: Implications of Current Uncertainties

"Within these uncertainty ranges the increase in GMST due to temperature lag for future forcings held constant is slight (0.09–0.19 K over 20 years; 0.12–0.26 K over 100 years). However the incremental increase in GMST that would result from a hypothetical abrupt cessation of sources of aerosols could be quite large, but is highly uncertain, 0.1–1.3 K over 20 years."

Read more...

0 comments


New research, February 26 - March 4, 2018

Posted on 9 March 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #57.

Climate change mitigation

1. How modifications of China's energy data affect carbon mitigation targets

"After revision, China's mitigation challenges increase by 5%."

2. The contribution of sectoral climate change mitigation options to national targets: a quantitative assessment of dairy production in Kenya

3. An optimal mix of conventional power systems in the presence of renewable energy: A new design for the German electricity market

4. Effect of major policy disruptions in energy system transition: Case Finland

5. Intermediaries’ perspectives on the public’s role in the energy transitions needed to deliver UK climate change policy goals

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0 comments


New research, February 19-25, 2018

Posted on 2 March 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

 

Climate change impacts

Biosphere

1. Warmer winters reduce the advance of tree spring phenology induced by warmer springs in the Alps

"Our results showed that for similar preseason (i.e. after dormancy break) temperatures, warmer winters significantly delayed budburst and flowering along the elevation gradient (+0.9 to +5.6 days °C−1) except for flowering of Corylus and budburst of Picea. For similar cold winter temperatures, warmer preseasons significantly advanced budburst and flowering along the elevation gradient (−5.3 to −8.4 days °C−1). On average, the effect of winter warming was 2.3 times lower than the effect of spring warming. We also showed that warmer winter temperature conditions have a significantly larger effect at lower elevations. As a consequence, the observed delaying effect of winter warming might be beneficial to trees by reducing the risk of exposure to late spring frost on a short term. This could further lead to partial dormancy break at lower elevations before the end of the 21st century, which, in turn, may alter bud development and flowering and so tree fitness."

2. Precipitation alters temperature effects on ecosystem respiration in Tibetan alpine meadows

3. Non-uniform time-lag effects of terrestrial vegetation responses to asymmetric warming

"NPP responds to asymmetric warming (AW) with near 12-month lags globally."

Read more...

2 comments


New research, February 12-18, 2018

Posted on 23 February 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The Figure is from paper #24.

Climate change

1. Climate Change Attribution: When Is It Appropriate to Accept New Methods?

2. Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?

3. Isolating the meteorological impact of 21st century GHG warming on the removal and atmospheric loading of anthropogenic fine particulate matter pollution at global scale

4. Assessment of climate change in Algeria from 1951 to 2098 using the Köppen–Geiger climate classification scheme

Read more...

0 comments


New research, February 5-11, 2018

Posted on 16 February 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The Figure is from paper #61.

John's new paper

1. Deconstructing climate misinformation to identify reasoning errors

"Misinformation can have significant societal consequences. For example, misinformation about climate change has confused the public and stalled support for mitigation policies. When people lack the expertise and skill to evaluate the science behind a claim, they typically rely on heuristics such as substituting judgment about something complex (i.e. climate science) with judgment about something simple (i.e. the character of people who speak about climate science) and are therefore vulnerable to misleading information. Inoculation theory offers one approach to effectively neutralize the influence of misinformation. Typically, inoculations convey resistance by providing people with information that counters misinformation. In contrast, we propose inoculating against misinformation by explaining the fallacious reasoning within misleading denialist claims. We offer a strategy based on critical thinking methods to analyse and detect poor reasoning within denialist claims. This strategy includes detailing argument structure, determining the truth of the premises, and checking for validity, hidden premises, or ambiguous language. Focusing on argument structure also facilitates the identification of reasoning fallacies by locating them in the reasoning process. Because this reason-based form of inoculation is based on general critical thinking methods, it offers the distinct advantage of being accessible to those who lack expertise in climate science. We applied this approach to 42 common denialist claims and find that they all demonstrate fallacious reasoning and fail to refute the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. This comprehensive deconstruction and refutation of the most common denialist claims about climate change is designed to act as a resource for communicators and educators who teach climate science and/or critical thinking."

Climate change mitigation

2. Reports of coal’s terminal decline may be exaggerated

"Even though coal consumption has recently declined and plans to build new coal-fired capacities have been shelved, constructing all these planned coal-fired power plants would endanger national and international climate targets. Plans to build new coal-fired power capacity would likely undermine the credibility of some countries’ (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions submitted to the UNFCCC. If all the coal-fired power plants that are currently planned were built, the carbon budget for reaching the 2 °C temperature target would nearly be depleted. Propositions about ‘coal’s terminal decline’ may thereby be premature."

Read more...

1 comments


New research, January 29 - February 4, 2018

Posted on 9 February 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

 

Climate change impacts

Mankind

1. A quantitative method for determining the impact threshold of climate change for agriculture

"We calculated the ITCC of spring wheat in Wuchuan County as an example and identified warming and drying trends in Wuchuan County from 1961 to 2013, especially during the period from 1991 to 2013 (i.e., the period after mutation or the change period). Over the past 53 years, spring wheat yield increased with an average rate of 81.3 kg ha−1 dec−1. Over the change period, however, yield decreased with an average rate of 13.8 kg ha−1 dec−1 and the fluctuation range increased. The appropriate threshold for average temperature during the growth period of spring wheat was 11.4 °C, and the stressed thresholds were 8.2 and 14.6 °C. The appropriate threshold for precipitation during the growth period was 391.1 mm, and the stressed thresholds were 247.4 and 534.9 mm. During the period before mutation (i.e., the basic period), the average temperature was below the upper temperature threshold, and precipitation was 26.9 mm above the lower precipitation threshold. During the change period, the average temperature was 0.3 °C above the upper temperature threshold, and precipitation was 9.8 mm above the lower precipitation threshold."

Read more...

0 comments


New research, January 22-28, 2018

Posted on 2 February 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #30.

Climate change

1. Whole Atmosphere Simulation of Anthropogenic Climate Change

"The basic result was that even as the lower atmosphere gradually warms, the upper atmosphere rapidly cools. The simulations employed constant low solar activity conditions, to remove the effects of variable solar and geomagnetic activity. Global mean annual mean temperature increased at a rate of +0.2 K/decade at the surface and +0.4 K/decade in the upper troposphere, but decreased by about -1 K/decade in the stratosphere-mesosphere, and -2.8 K/decade in the thermosphere. Near the mesopause, temperature decreases were small compared to the interannual variation, so trends in that region are uncertain."

Read more...

2 comments


New research, January 15-21, 2018

Posted on 25 January 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #63.

Climate change mitigation

1. Does replacing coal with wood lower CO2 emissions? Dynamic lifecycle analysis of wood bioenergy

"Because combustion and processing efficiencies for wood are less than coal, the immediate impact of substituting wood for coal is an increase in atmospheric CO2 relative to coal. The payback time for this carbon debt ranges from 44–104 years after clearcut, depending on forest type—assuming the land remains forest. Surprisingly, replanting hardwood forests with fast-growing pine plantations raises the CO2 impact of wood because the equilibrium carbon density of plantations is lower than natural forests. Further, projected growth in wood harvest for bioenergy would increase atmospheric CO2 for at least a century because new carbon debt continuously exceeds NPP. Assuming biofuels are carbon neutral may worsen irreversible impacts of climate change before benefits accrue."

2. Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions

"We estimate that NDCs project into 56.8–66.5 Gt CO2eq yr−1emissions in 2030 (90% confidence interval), which is higher than previous estimates, and with a larger uncertainty range. Despite these uncertainties, NDCs robustly shift GHG emissions towards emerging and developing countries and reduce international inequalities in per capita GHG emissions. Finally, we stress that current NDCs imply larger emissions reduction rates after 2030 than during the 2010–2030 period if long-term temperature goals are to be fulfilled. Our results highlight four requirements for the forthcoming 'climate regime': a clearer framework regarding future NDCs' design, an increasing participation of emerging and developing countries in the global mitigation effort, an ambitious update mechanism in order to avoid hardly feasible decarbonization rates after 2030 and an anticipation of steep decreases in global emissions after 2030."

Read more...

8 comments


New research, January 8-14, 2018

Posted on 19 January 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The Figure is from paper #30.

Climate change impacts

Impacts to mankind

1. Structural property losses from tornadoes in Florida

2. Evaluating Efficacy of Landsat-Derived Environmental Covariates for Predicting Malaria Distribution in Rural Villages of Vhembe District, South Africa

"The study has shown that suitable habitats of malaria vectors are generally found within a radius of 10 km in semi-arid environments, and this insight can be useful to aid efforts aimed at putting in place evidence-based preventative measures against malaria infections. Furthermore, this result is important in understanding malaria dynamics under the current climate and environmental changes. The study has also demonstrated the use of Landsat data and the ability to extract environmental conditions which favour the distribution of malaria vector (An. arabiensis) such as the canopy moisture content in vegetation, which serves as a surrogate for rainfall."

Read more...

0 comments


Flaws of Lüdecke & Weiss

Posted on 16 January 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

Once again a paper that looks at solar-climate connection turns out to be deeply flawed. It contains bad methodology, bad result handling, bad conclusions, and a biased reference list.

Data handling process of Lüdecke & Weiss (2017).

A few months ago, a new paper was published by Lüdecke and Weiss (LW17). Both Lüdecke and Weiss are known climate change contrarians. Serious problems have been reported from their previous work, which used some of the same methods that were used in this new one. The new paper has been published by Bentham Open, which has somewhat questionable reputation.

Climate change contrarians are liking this of course and recently I also encountered the paper when it was shown to me as a proof for something. I decided to take a more thorough look at the paper.

Read more...

9 comments


New research, January 1-7, 2018

Posted on 12 January 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #20.

Climate change

1. Climate Change on Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves: Results From a Regional Downscaled Ocean and Sea-Ice Model Under an A1B Forcing Scenario 2011–2069

"Over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves during the projection period, the model shows general trends of warming, freshening, and decreasing ice. From 2011 to 2069, the model projects that under A1B sea surface temperature will increase by 1.4°C; bottom temperature will increase by 1.6°C; sea surface salinity will decrease by 0.7; bottom salinity will decrease by 0.3; and sea-ice extent will decrease by 70%. The sea level will rise by 0.11 m at the St. John's tide-gauge station because of oceanographic change, and the freshwater transport of the Labrador Current will double as a result of freshening."

2. Quantifying the effects of historical land cover conversion uncertainty on global carbon and climate estimates

Temperature and precipitation

3. A Comparative Study of Atmospheric Moisture Recycling Rate Between Observations and Models

4. Long-term rainfall regression surfaces for the Kruger National Park, South Africa: a spatio-temporal review of patterns from 1981 to 2015

5. The land and its climate knows no transition, no middle ground, everywhere too much or too little: a documentary-based climate chronology for central Namibia, 1845–1900

Extreme events

Read more...

0 comments


New research, December 25-31, 2017

Posted on 5 January 2018 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change mitigation

1. Renewable technologies in Karnataka, India: jobs potential and co-benefits

"We show that enhancing green economy offers benefits that include the creation of jobs, but also delivers a much wider set of socio-economic and environmental welfare gains for emerging economies such as India."

2. Social acceptance of new energy technology in developing countries: A framing experiment in rural India

3. Public acceptance of household energy-saving measures in Beijing: Heterogeneous preferences and policy implications

4. Conceptualization of energy security in resource-poor economies: The role of the nature of economy

5. Climate Risk Management and the Electricity Sector

6. Multidimensional stress test for hydropower investments facing climate, geophysical and financial uncertainty

7. Assessing the role of artificially drained agricultural land for climate change mitigation in Ireland

8. Changing climate policy paradigms in Bangladesh and Nepal

Read more...

3 comments


New research, December 18-24, 2017

Posted on 29 December 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #62.

Climate change impacts

1. The Sectoral and Regional Economic Consequences of Climate Change to 2060

"The model results show that damages are projected to rise twice as fast as global economic activity; global annual Gross Domestic Product losses are projected to be 1.0–3.3% by 2060. Of the impacts that are modelled, impacts on labour productivity and agriculture are projected to have the largest negative economic consequences. Damages from sea level rise grow most rapidly after the middle of the century. Damages to energy and tourism are very small from a global perspective, as benefits in some regions balance damages in others. Climate-induced damages from hurricanes may have significant effects on local communities, but the macroeconomic consequences are projected to be very small. Net economic consequences are projected to be especially large in Africa and Asia, where the regional economies are vulnerable to a range of different climate impacts. For some countries in higher latitudes, economic benefits can arise from gains in tourism, energy and health. The global assessment also shows that countries that are relatively less affected by climate change may reap trade gains."

2. An ecophysiological perspective on likely giant panda habitat responses to climate change

"In general, SAA [suitable activity area] in the hottest month (July) would reduce 11.7-52.2% by 2070, which is more moderate than predicted bamboo habitat loss (45.6-86.9%). Limited by the availability of bamboo and forest, panda's suitable habitat loss increases, and only 15.5-68.8% of current HSH would remain in 2070."

3. Temperature is the main correlate of the global biogeography of turtle body size

"Mean annual temperature was the main correlate of body size for the whole group and for terrestrial turtles in both approaches, having a positive correlation with this trait. Body sizes of aquatic turtles were not influenced by any of the tested variables. In the cross-species approach we also found that temperature variation since the LGM was an important positive correlate of body size in terrestrial turtles."

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0 comments


Some curious things about Svensmark et al. reference list

Posted on 25 December 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

The hypothesis of significant effect of cosmic-rays to climate has been shown wrong many times. This is a pet hypothesis of Henrik Svensmark, who continues to push papers on the subject to scientific journals. A few days ago, the journal Nature Communications published a paper of Svensmark (& co-workers). I checked out its reference list because I think that some indicators of the quality of a paper can be found simply by checking the reference list, and how references are used.

S17 reference list - first impressions

I immediately noticed a few things about S17 reference list. I made some tweets (@AGWobserver) where I mention them:

Read more...

10 comments


New research, December 11-17, 2017

Posted on 21 December 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #4.

Climate change

1. The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability

"Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales."

2. Attributable human-induced changes in the likelihood and magnitude of the observed extreme precipitation during Hurricane Harvey

"We find that human-induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%), which is larger than the 6-7% associated with an attributable warming of 1° C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius-Clapeyron scaling."

Read more...

0 comments


New research, December 4-10, 2017

Posted on 15 December 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #26.

Climate change mitigation

1. The fiscal benefits of stringent climate change mitigation: an overview

"We find that national climate policy often aligns with other objectives, provided that climate policies and fiscal policies are integrated well. A first class of interactions concerns public revenue-raising: carbon pricing can replace distortionary taxes and alleviate international tax competition; climate policy also changes asset values, which impacts the base of non-climate taxes and boosts productive investment. Second, they concern public spending, which needs to be restructured as a part of climate policy, while carbon pricing revenues may be recycled for public investment. Third, distributional impacts of climate policies include changes to household expenditures, to asset values and to employment; balancing them often requires fiscal policies."

2. The 1.5°C target and coal sector transition: at the limits of societal feasibility

"A survey of major coal using countries shows that each is a long way from putting in place a long-term framework to transition the coal sector."

Read more...

2 comments


New research, November 27 - December 3, 2017

Posted on 5 December 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Figure is from paper #38.

Climate change impacts

1. Phenotypic plasticity and climate change: can polar bears respond to longer Arctic summers with an adaptive fast?

"We found that bears on shore maintained lipid and protein stores by scavenging on bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) carcasses from human harvest, while those that followed the retreating sea ice beyond the continental shelf were food deprived. They had low ratios of blood urea to creatinine (U:C), normally associated with adaptive fasting. However, they also exhibited low albumin and glucose (indicative of protein loss) and elevated alanine aminotransferase and ghrelin (which fall during adaptive fasting). Thus, the ~ 70% of the SBS subpopulation that spends summer on the ice experiences more of a regular, rather than adaptive, fast. This fast will lengthen as summer ice declines. The resulting protein loss prior to winter could be a mechanism driving the reported correlation between summer ice and polar bear reproduction and survival in the SBS."

2. Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe

"We find that damages could triple by the 2020s, multiply six-fold by mid-century, and amount to more than 10 times present damage of €3.4 billion per year by the end of the century due only to climate change. Damage from heatwaves, droughts in southern Europe, and coastal floods shows the most dramatic rise, but the risks of inland flooding, windstorms, and forest fires will also increase in Europe, with varying degrees of change across regions. Economic losses are highest for the industry, transport, and energy sectors."

Read more...

0 comments


New research, November 20-26, 2017

Posted on 1 December 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Figure is from paper #6.

Climate change

1. Acceleration in the global mean sea level rise: 2005-2015

"Our results show that the acceleration during the last decade (0.27 ± 0.17 mm/yr2) is about three times faster than its value during 1993–2014. The acceleration comes from three factors, i.e. 0.04 ± 0.01 mm/yr2 (~15%) by land ice melting, 0.12 ± 0.06 mm/yr2 (~44%) by thermal expansion of the sea water, and 0.11 ± 0.02 mm/yr2 (~41%) by declining land water storage."

Read more...

0 comments


New research, November 13-19, 2017

Posted on 24 November 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The Canadian hockey stick shown above in blue is from paper #17.

Climate change mitigation

1. Warning signs for stabilizing global CO 2 emissions

"Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuels and industry comprise ~90% of all CO 2 emissions from human activities. For the last three years, such emissions were stable, despite continuing growth in the global economy. Many positive trends contributed to this unique hiatus, including reduced coal use in China and elsewhere, continuing gains in energy efficiency, and a boom in low-carbon renewables such as wind and solar. However, the temporary hiatus appears to have ended in 2017. For 2017, we project emissions growth of 2.0% (range: 0.8%−3.0%) from 2016 levels (leap-year adjusted), reaching a record 36.8 ± 2 Gt CO 2 . Economic projections suggest further emissions growth in 2018 is likely. Time is running out on our ability to keep global average temperature increases below 2 °C and, even more immediately, anything close to 1.5 °C."

2. Confirmation of elevated methane emissions in Utah's Uintah Basin with ground-based observations and a high-resolution transport model

"At both Horsepool and Castlepeak, the diurnal cycle of modeled CH4 concentrations was captured using NOAA emission estimates, but was underestimated using the EPA inventory. These findings corroborate emission estimates from the NOAA inventory, based on daytime mass balance estimates, and provide additional support for a suggested leak rate from the Uintah Basin that is higher than most other regions with natural gas and oil development."

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0 comments


New research, November 6-12, 2017

Posted on 17 November 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #32.

Climate change impacts

1. Nitrogen availability dampens the positive impacts of CO2 fertilization on terrestrial ecosystem carbon and water cycles

"Results suggest that the rate of global GPP increase is overestimated by 85% during 2000-2015 without N limitation. This limitation is found to occur in many tropical and boreal forests, where a negative leaf N trend indicates a reduction in photosynthetic capacity, thereby suppressing the positive vegetation response to enhanced CO2 fertilization."

2. Climatic variability and dengue risk in urban environment of Delhi (India)

"Findings reveal significant changes in weather across the year having significant and positive association with dengue cases at specified lags. Weeks in April and July to October with gaps have been identified as the high risk weeks based on the estimated relative risk. There has been intra-annual expansion in dengue risk period extending beyond monsoon and post-monsoon."

Read more...

4 comments


New research, October 30 - November 5, 2017

Posted on 10 November 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The graph is from paper #80.

Climate change

1. Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin

"Results indicate that the recently observed warming in the dry seasons is well beyond the range of natural (internal) variability. In the wet season the natural modes of variability explain a substantial portion of Tmin and Tmax variability. We demonstrate that the large-scale component of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is detectable in dry-seasonal warming. However, none of the global and regional climate change projections reproduce the observed warming of up to 0.6 K/Decade in Tmax in 1983–2012 over northern SA during the austral spring (SON). Thus, besides the global manifestation of GHG forcing, other external drivers have an imprint."

2. Observed changes in temperature extremes over Asia and their attribution

"We determined that the warming trend was inconsistent with the natural variability of the climate system but agreed with climate responses to external forcing as simulated by the models. The anthropogenic and natural signals could be detected and separated from each other in the region for almost all indices, indicating the robustness of the warming signal as well as the attribution of warming to external causes."

3. Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions

"Using earth system model simulations we find that the eruption-induced cooling is significantly weaker in the future state. This is predominantly due to an increase in planetary albedo caused by increased tropospheric aerosol loading with a contribution from associated changes in cloud properties."

Read more...

0 comments


New research, October 23-29, 2017

Posted on 3 November 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

(Figure is from paper #16.)

Climate change mitigation

1. Geophysical potential for wind energy over the open oceans

"Wind speeds over open ocean areas are often higher than those in the windiest areas over land, which has motivated a quest to develop technologies that could harvest wind energy in deep water environments. However, it remains unclear whether these open ocean wind speeds are higher because of lack of surface drag or whether a greater downward transport of kinetic energy may be sustained in open ocean environments. Focusing on the North Atlantic region, we provide evidence that there is potential for greater downward transport of kinetic energy in the overlying atmosphere. As a result, wind power generation over some ocean areas can exceed power generation on land by a factor of three or more."

2. Public receptiveness of vertical axis wind turbines

"We find that the visual differences between the vertical and conventional wind turbines did not matter very much in any of the hypothetical settings in which we placed them. However, the prospect of killing fewer birds registered strongly with our survey respondents, though it could be outweighed by concern for cost. We also show that certain segments of the population, particularly those who are more educated, may be open to a more extensive deployment of vertical axis turbines in urban communities."

3. Getting the numbers right: revisiting woodfuel sustainability in the developing world

"The existing projects expect to produce offsets equivalent to ~138 MtCO2e. However, when we apply NRB values derived from spatially explicit woodfuel demand and supply imbalances in the region of each offset project, we find that emission reductions are between 57 and 81 MtCO2e: 41%–59% lower than expected."

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0 comments


The F13 files, part 4 - dealing with Elsevier

Posted on 31 October 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

Elsevier's journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews published a paper in 2013 (Florides et al. 2013, "F13" from now on) which we found problematic. We analyzed the paper and communicated our findings to Elsevier. Our main findings were that much of F13 text was copy/pasted from other sources without proper attribution and that F13 contained many false claims. In this series of posts, I'll go through the problems in F13 and in Elsevier actions. There are four posts:

Part 4 - dealing with Elsevier - first contacts

In parts 1-3 we discussed the possible plagiarism and the problems in the content of F13. In this fourth part we will go through what happened when we communicated our findings to Elsevier. Here is a brief chronology of events, which I explain in more detail below:

  • March 14, 2014: we become aware of F13 and start our analysis.
  • June 27, 2014: our first contact attempt to Elsevier.
  • September 10, 2014: first response from Elsevier - basically just receiving the information from us.
  • July 5, 2015: After us asking for the status of the issue a couple of times, and after much waiting, the Editor-in-Chief finally contacts us for the first time - the issue has been communicated to interested parties. We are asked to write and submit a comment paper.
  • March 31, 2016: after much work, we submit our comment paper.
  • March 21, 2017: after several contact attempts trying to ask about the status of our submission, we get a response from Elsevier saying that they had sent us F13's reply already in May, 2016, which we didn't receive.
  • May 14, 2017: The F13 reply is re-sent to us. The Editor-in-Chief rejects our comment paper because F13 didn't like it, and asks us to write another paper where the F13 issue would be reduced to just one example issue among other similar issues. We decline the offer.

Read more...

3 comments


New research, October 16-22, 2017

Posted on 26 October 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below. Each week there are new research papers from all over the world. To illustrate this, the figure below shows the rough study locations of this week's papers (those who express their study location clearly in the abstract or in the title).

Climate change impacts

1. Drier climate shifts leaf morphology in Amazonian trees

"When accounting for such biases, our results indicate a trend of decreasing leaf size after the 1970s, which may have been spurred by an observed reduction in rainfall."

2. An Anthropological Perspective on the Climate Change and Violence Relationship

"Given that individuals make choices to respond violently or not based on their perceptions of these complex, interacting social and environmental conditions, violence in response to global climate change is not inevitable."

3. Rapid evolution of phenology during range expansion with recent climate change

"We found that in both common gardens, northern plants flowered up to four weeks earlier than southern plants. This differentiation in phenology extended from the core of the range to the Netherlands, a region only reached from central France over approximately the last 50 years. Fitness decreased as plants flowered later, supporting the hypothesized benefits of earlier flowering at the range edge. Our results suggest that native range expanding populations can rapidly adapt to novel environmental conditions in the expanded range, potentially promoting their ability to spread."

Read more...

1 comments


The F13 files, part 3 - the reference list analysis and other problems

Posted on 24 October 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

Elsevier's journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews published a paper in 2013 (Florides et al. 2013, "F13" from now on) which we found problematic. We analysed the paper and communicated our findings to Elsevier. Our main findings were that much of F13 text was copy/pasted from other sources without proper attribution and that F13 contained many false claims. In this series of posts I'll go through the problems in F13 and in Elsevier actions. There are four posts:

Part 3 - the reference list analysis and other problems

In addition to content analysis, we analysed F13’s reference list, as that can offer strong quality indicators. In this second part of our analysis, we checked each reference and recorded its properties:

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1 comments


New research, October 9-15, 2017

Posted on 20 October 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #79.

Climate change

1. Channelized Melting Drives Thinning Under a Rapidly Melting Antarctic Ice Shelf

"High-resolution altimetry measurements from 2010 to 2016 show that Dotson Ice Shelf (DIS), West Antarctica, thins in response to basal melting focused along a single 5 km-wide and 60 km-long channel extending from the ice shelf's grounding zone to its calving front. If focused thinning continues at present rates, the channel will melt through, and the ice shelf collapse, within 40–50 years, almost two centuries before collapse is projected from the average thinning rate."

2. Revisiting the cause of the 1989-2009 Arctic surface warming using the surface energy budget: downward infrared radiation dominates the surface fluxes

"The Arctic has been warming faster than elsewhere, especially during the cold season. According to the leading theory, ice-albedo feedback warms the Arctic Ocean during the summer, and the heat gained by the ocean is released during the winter, causing the cold-season warming. Screen and Simmonds (2010; SS10) concluded that the theory is correct by comparing trend patterns in surface air temperature (SAT), surface turbulence heat flux (HF) and net surface infrared radiation (IR). However, in this comparison, downward IR is more appropriate to use. By analyzing the same data used in SS10 using the surface energy budget, it is shown here that over most of the Arctic the skin temperature trend, which closely resembles the SAT trend, is largely accounted for by the downward IR, not the HF, trend."

Read more...

0 comments


The F13 files, part 2 - the content analysis

Posted on 19 October 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

Elsevier's journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews published a paper in 2013 (Florides et al. 2013, "F13" from now on) which we found problematic. We analysed the paper and communicated our findings to Elsevier. Our main findings were that much of F13 text was copy/pasted from other sources without proper attribution and that F13 contained many false claims. In this series of posts I'll go through the problems in F13 and in Elsevier actions. There are four posts:

Part 2 - the content analysis

While we were reading F13, a few problems leapt out quickly. With more thorough inspection we found pervasive problems in F13. We realized that a normal style of comment paper where we comment on some main points of F13 wouldn't be a good approach in this case. Instead we decided to try to quantify the amount of misinformation in F13. To do this, we needed to analyse the contents of F13 for flaws, misrepresentations, logical fallacies, etc. However, a comprehensive rebuttal of F13 would have taken much time and far exceed the F13's size, so we limited detailed analysis to F13 chapters 1 and 2, which we analysed paragraph-by-paragraph. After this, we calculated the percentage of misinformation within the two analysed chapters.

Results of the content analysis

Of 27 paragraphs in the first two chapters, 19 (about 70%) contained problems, and 10 (about 37%) contained problems we claim are serious. Altogether, we found 43 individual problems from those two chapters alone. The figure below shows the problem counts for each paragraph.

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4 comments


The F13 files, part 1 - the copy/paste job

Posted on 17 October 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

Elsevier's journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews published a paper in 2013 (Florides et al. 2013, "F13" from now on) which we found problematic. We analysed the paper and communicated our findings to Elsevier. Our main findings were that much of F13 text was copy/pasted from other sources without proper attribution and that F13 contained many false claims. In this series of posts I'll go through the problems in F13 and in Elsevier actions. There are four posts:

Part 1 - the copy/paste job

About three years ago we contacted Elsevier to inform them that a paper they had published, the F13, was problematic in many ways. F13 is written as a review article on the climatic effects of carbon dioxide and the Sun, but it really is yet another attempt to publish climate myths within scientific literature. I'll go through the problems with the contents in the subsequent posts, but here I would like to highlight another apparent problem in F13.

When we, the Skeptical Science volunteer community, first became aware of this paper, we started to check it out.

Read more...

20 comments


New research, October 2-8, 2017

Posted on 13 October 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

1. Comment on “Scrutinizing the carbon cycle and CO2 residence time in the atmosphere” by H. Harde

"As we will show, this alternative scheme is too simple, is based on invalid assumptions, and does not address many of the key processes involved in the global carbon cycle that are important on the timescale of interest. Harde (2017) therefore reaches an incorrect conclusion about the role of anthropogenic CO2 emissions."

2. A state-dependent quantification of climate sensitivity based on paleo data of the last 2.1 million years

"Finally, from data covering the last 2.1 Myr we show that — due to state dependency — the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity which considers radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice sheet (LI) albedo ... is larger during interglacial states than during glacial conditions by more than a factor two."

3. Heavy precipitation is highly sensitive to the magnitude of future warming

"We find that the frequency of annual heavy precipitation at a global scale increases in both 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios until around 2070, after which the magnitudes of the trend become much weaker or even negative."

Read more...

0 comments


New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017

Posted on 6 October 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

1. Diurnal Cycle Variability of Surface Temperature Inferred from AIRS data

"...it is found that the DTR of the surface (skin) temperature over the global Earth has a temporal small positive trend in the decade of the AIRS measurements indicating that the day temperatures grew slightly more rapidly than the night temperatures. A possible cause of the observed DTR increase is a decrease of the low cloud fraction at nighttime found for the same time period from the AIRS retrievals."

2. The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet–climate model

"We find that ice volume variability has a strong enhancing effect on atmospheric temperature changes, particularly in the regions where the ice sheets are located. As a result, polar amplification in the Northern Hemisphere decreases towards warmer climates as there is little land ice left to melt. Conversely, decay of the Antarctic ice sheet increases polar amplification in the Southern Hemisphere in the high-CO2 regime. Our results also show that in cooler climates than the pre-industrial, the ice–albedo feedback predominates the surface–height–temperature feedback, while in warmer climates they are more equal in strength."

Read more...

12 comments


New research, September 18-24, 2017

Posted on 29 September 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below. The graphic is from Lamsal et al. (paper #32).

Climate change

1. Inconsistent subsurface and deeper ocean warming signals during recent global warming and hiatus

"In general, the global SDO has sequestered a significant amount of heat – about 3.50*1022 joules with trends of 0.59 W m−2 on average among the four datasets – during the recent hiatus, demonstrating widespread and significant warming signals in the global SDO." (SDO = Subsurface and Deeper Ocean.)

2. Enhanced Decadal Warming of the Southeast Indian Ocean during the Recent Global Surface Warming Slowdown

"The rapid Indian Ocean warming during the early-21th century was a major heat sink for the recent global surface warming slowdown. Analysis of observational data and ocean model experiments reveals that during 2003-2012 more than half of the increased upper Indian Ocean heat content was concentrated in the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO), causing a warming “hotspot” of 0.8-1.2 K decade-1 near the west coast of Australia." ... "Large-ensemble climate model simulations suggest that this warming event was likely also exacerbated by anthropogenic forcing and thus unprecedentedly strong as compared to previous IPO transition periods."

3. Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C

"If CO2 emissions are continuously adjusted over time to limit 2100 warming to 1.5°C, with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation, net future cumulative CO2 emissions are unlikely to prove less than 250GtC and unlikely greater than 540GtC. Hence, limiting warming to 1.5°C is not yet a geophysical impossibility, but is likely to require delivery on strengthened pledges for 2030 followed by challengingly deep and rapid mitigation."

4. More-Persistent Weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex States Linked to Cold Extremes

"Using hierarchical clustering, we show that over the last 37 years, the frequency of weak vortex states in mid to late winter (January and February) has increased which were accompanied by subsequent cold extremes in mid-latitude Eurasia. For this region 60% of the observed cooling in the era of Arctic amplification, i.e. since 1990, can be explained by the increased frequency of weak stratospheric polar vortex states, a number which increases to almost 80% when El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is included as well."

Read more...

2 comments


New research, September 11-17, 2017

Posted on 22 September 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Read more...

2 comments


New research, September 4-10, 2017

Posted on 15 September 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

1. State of the Climate in 2016 See also: A Look at 2016: Takeaway Points from the State of the Climate Supplement

2. The rise in global atmospheric CO2, surface temperature, and sea level from emissions traced to major carbon producers

"Emissions traced to these 90 carbon producers contributed ∼57% of the observed rise in atmospheric CO2, ∼42–50% of the rise in global mean surface temperature (GMST), and ∼26–32% of global sea level (GSL) rise over the historical period and ∼43% (atmospheric CO2), ∼29–35% (GMST), and ∼11–14% (GSL) since 1980 (based on best-estimate parameters and accounting for uncertainty arising from the lack of data on aerosol forcings traced to producers)."

3. Optimal management of the flooding risk caused by the joint occurrence of extreme rainfall and high tide level in a coastal city

"Heavy rain is the main disaster-causing factor in inland areas, while high tide level is the main disaster-causing factor in island areas. For the area whose main disaster-causing factor is heavy rain, water storage projects could effectively reduce flooding. Meanwhile, pumps are economical choices for the area where tide level is the main disaster-causing factor."

Read more...

6 comments


New research, August 28 - September 3, 2017

Posted on 11 September 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

1. Continuously Amplified Warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for Estimating Global Warming Hiatus

"Focusing on the "hiatus" period 1998-2012 as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the SAT has increased at 0.45 °C/decade, which captures more than 90% of the regional trend for 1951-2012. We suggest that sparse in-situ measurements are responsible for underestimation of the SAT change in the gridded datasets."

2. Extreme warming in the Kara Sea and Barents Sea during the winter period 2000 to 2016

"The maximum warming occurs north of Novaya Zemlya in the Kara Sea and Barents Sea between March 2003-2012 and is responsible for up to 20°C increase. Land-based observations confirm the increase but do not cover the maximum regions that are located over the ocean and sea-ice."

3. Tropical semi-arid regions expanding over temperate latitudes under climate change

"We show that a global expansion of this climatic domain has already started according to climate observations in the twentieth century (about + 13% of surface increase, i.e. from 6 to 7% of the global land surface). Models project that this expansion will continue throughout the twenty-first century, whatever the scenario..."

4. Representation of mid-latitude North American coastal storm activity by six global reanalyses

"All reanalyses are found to successfully represent most aspects of mid-latitude North American coastal strong storm activity, annually and seasonally, along both coasts. Nevertheless, ERA-Interim, MERRA, and CFSR provide the better representations of mid-latitude North American coastal strong storm activity, with ERA-Interim performing best overall."

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4 comments


New research, August 21-27, 2017

Posted on 30 August 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

About five years ago, Skeptical Science had a weekly feature called "new research from last week" which was compiled by me. I stopped doing the posts at the end of 2012. Now I'll start making those posts again. This time I won't promise to have a post at a certain time every week, but only that there will roughly be one new post per week.

Below are the new papers I noticed between August 21 and August 27. The title for each paper is shown and links to its abstract. Additionally, I have included a quote from the abstract for some papers. Papers have been divided into four categories: climate change (containing climate science relating to climate change), climate change impacts (contains papers on how climate change affects different things such as biosphere and mankind), climate change mitigation (contains research on actions we can do to mitigate climate change), and other papers (contains for example papers on past climates and on general climate science).

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6 comments


Those 80 graphs that got used for climate myths

Posted on 11 July 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

Recent attack on the so-called hockey stick graph is a compilation of 80 graphs from 2017 which consists of 76 graphs that describe local or regional situations, one graph that describes Northern Hemisphere situation, one graph that describes NH extratropics situation, and two graphs that describe global situation. As the hockey stick graph describes the situation in Northern Hemisphere, 80 graphs become 4 graphs, because local/regional graphs are meaningless in comparison to hemispheric/global situation.

Furthermore, two of the four remaining graphs have originally been published before 2017. We are left with two graphs from 2017. Both of them have been published in the same study, Steiger et al. 2017. The two graphs are indeed interesting as they don't show any sign of recent global warming. But see the figure below. Apparently, the graphs in Steiger et al. weren't good enough for the author of the 80 graphs article, but the graphs needed some editing (both graphs were edited in the same manner). There are also some other problems with these 80 graphs as shown below.

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13 comments


Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s

Posted on 1 February 2017 by Ari Jokimäki &

The recent global warming hiatus has been a subject of intensive studies during the last ten years. But it seems that there already was some research relating to the global warming hiatus during 1980s and 1990s (the earliest studies on the issue were actually back in the 1940s-1970s). This seems to have gone largely unnoticed in the scientific literature of current global warming hiatus, and it certainly seems to have gone unnoticed by climate mitigation opponents who have made claims on the global warming hiatus since at least 2006 and still continue to do so.

Some time ago I stumbled on a few old papers which discussed the temperature evolution of the 1940s to the 1970s. In the early 20th century there had been warming which seemed to have stopped around 1940 until it resumed again in the turn of 1970s and 1980s. Here I will use "global warming moratorium" to describe this early hiatus (the reason for this can be found below). Below I'll go through some of the papers in question.

Early studies on the 1940s-1970s global warming moratorium

Global surface temperature increased during the first half of the 20th century. In 1940s, this warming apparently stopped. Possibly the first to notice this was Kincer (1946):

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22 comments


Was Broecker really the first to use the term Global Warming?

Posted on 30 September 2015 by Ari Jokimäki &

"Global warming" is a term that is most commonly used to describe an increase in global mean surface temperature. Sometimes global warming has been used more broadly to also include temperature evolution in troposphere. In some cases the term has been falsely used in the place of the term "climate change", which has a different meaning. "Climate change" can be any change in climate parameters (for example rainfall or wind) and it doesn't have to be global.

J. Murray Mitchell. Photo from AIP website.

J. Murray Mitchell, Jr. at his home weather station. Photo from Emilio Segrè Visual Archives via AIP website.

The usage of global warming can be traced back at least to 1961 by J. Murray Mitchell Jr. (more on this below). However, NASA has a page by Eric Conway on the terminology which mistakenly claims on the origin of the term global warming:

"Its first use was in a 1975 Science article by geochemist Wallace Broecker of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory: "Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?""

Let us see what earlier papers we can find that used the term. What is interesting, among other things, in Broecker's paper is that it uses both climate change (in the form of climatic change) and global warming in its title. Going further back from the claimed originating year of the term global warming, we somewhat interestingly find Idso (1974):

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17 comments


Honey, I mitigated climate change

Posted on 27 March 2014 by Ari Jokimäki &

Actions of mankind release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Greenhouse gas concentrations have increased causing Earth to heat up, which has been evident during the last few decades. This global warming proceeds so fast that it causes problems for both the biosphere and mankind. These concerns have been largely noticed and the general attitude is that we will need to do something about the problem as soon as possible. There already are some limited efforts to do something about it. Although international policy decisions have not been forthcoming, there has been some action from different nations, corporations, citizen groups, and individual citizens.

The problem is largely in energy production, because for that we currently use mainly fossil fuels, which release a lot of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere when burned. We are therefore looking to replace fossil fuels with something that doesn't release so much greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Examples of such energy production methods are wind power and solar power. These two are clearly good options. However, some of the options don't seem to be that good.

Natural gas and oil palms

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58 comments


Global warming...still happening

Posted on 30 August 2013 by Ari Jokimäki &

The apparent lack of warming in Earth's surface temperature measurements since 1998 is not yet significant from climatic perspective. Surface temperature also seems to be changing according to IPCC projections. Climate model simulations show similar warming breaks, and have done so even before current break started, even if they include the effect of carbon dioxide. Models also can re-create the current break and the cause for the break seems to be known: warming has gone to the oceans instead of warming the surface. The ocean warming has been observed. Also the continuing warming effect of greenhouse gases has been observed. Global warming as a whole seems to continue despite the apparent break in surface measurements.

Several decades of long-term warming is evident in recent surface temperature measurements. However, since 1998 surface temperature records don't show clear warming. This is not very clear because the time period is not very long and the possible trends might not be statistically significant. Skeptical Science trend calculator shows warming trends since 1998 but they are not statistically significant. Santer and others (2011) estimated that it takes 17 years of satellite measurements, before effect of mankind to lower atmosphere can be detected. In some cases, 15 years has been mentioned for the limit of statistical significance, so the situation seems to be quite borderline. For example, from 1983 and 1998, which was time of rapid warming, SkS trend calculator still shows a trend that is not statistically significant. Trend is significant from 1982 to 1998. (Even if statistically enough time would pass without warming, it still wouldn't mean that increases in greenhouse gases wouldn't have a warming effect. This we will see below in more detail.)

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23 comments


An estimate of the consensus project paper search coverage

Posted on 10 June 2013 by Ari Jokimäki &

As part of my involvement in the consensus project (TCP) that recently published its results, I looked into some aspects of the data which were not part of the final paper. One thing I did was look into what proportion of the literature was covered by the project.

Here's the description of the search from the paper:

"In March 2012, we searched the ISI Web of Science for papers published from 1991–2011 using topic searches for ‘global warming’ or ‘global climate change’. Article type was restricted to ‘article’, excluding books, discussions, proceedings papers and other document types. The search was updated in May 2012 with papers added to the Web of Science up to that date."

This resulted in 12,465 papers, but after eliminating papers that were non-peer-reviewed, not related to climate, and papers without abstracts, the resulting number of papers was 11,944.

In order to check the completeness of the search, we should compare the search results to some other known sample. To me, the obvious sample for comparison is found from IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4) reference lists because I think they cover the subject reasonably well. However, it should be noted that IPCC reference lists don't contain all the papers on the subject, but they are only a subset just like the sample in TCP. The comparison between the TCP sample and IPCC reference lists presented below only shows if TCP paper search did not cover the subject well.

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15 comments


What doesn’t change with climate?

Posted on 7 March 2013 by Ari Jokimäki &

Global warming and subsequent climate change have a lot of different effects. The composition of the atmosphere changes. The troposphere swells and the atmosphere gets wetter. Oceans warm and expand. There are chemical changes in the ocean waters. Well known example of that is the ocean acidification caused by the increasing carbon dioxide concentration.

The biosphere gets shuffled. Some species shift to other places looking for more suitable conditions in which to live. Body shape and/or size changes for some species. The timetables between species get all mixed up. For example, because of an earlier spring the available food (caterpillars) is gone before the eggs of migratory birds hatch. Some, or according to predictions quite many, of the species will even go extinct.

Glaciers and ice sheets are melting. There are changes even in the lithosphere when the pressing weight of the ice sheets and glaciers is reduced as they melt into the ocean. Today at some places we can still see this same effect at work as the Earth’s crust is uplifting because the weight of the ice sheets that were there during the last glaciation (i.e. the “ice age”) was removed when the ice melted away. This effect also affects the asthenosphere, a viscous layer below the lithosphere.

So the climate change shows up everywhere – in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, asthenosphere, and beyond. Is there anything within Earth’s system that doesn’t change with climate?

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17 comments


Non-English climate science

Posted on 25 January 2013 by Ari Jokimäki &

Today we are used to receiving new climate research written in English. That has not always been the case. There even was a time when English was a very minor language in science. Some time ago I started thinking that by concentrating on research written in English we might be missing lot of climate science, especially historically. I decided to take a look at the situation.

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13 comments


New research from last week 52/2012

Posted on 31 December 2012 by Ari Jokimäki &

Here it is - the last post in the New research from last week series. I thank all researchers for providing continuous stream of interesting science to include to weekly batches. I also thank all readers for their interest in the series. New research reporting will continue in some form, which is currently uncertain. I probably will continue pointing out some interesting papers in my Twitter feed, but I expect that even there will be a quiet period in coming weeks. Happy new year for all climate science fans everywhere!

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3 comments


New research from last week 51/2012

Posted on 24 December 2012 by Ari Jokimäki &

Merry christmas to all climate science fans! What would be better way to spend christmas than to read brand new climate research. That you find below a plenty.

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2 comments


New research from last week 50/2012

Posted on 17 December 2012 by Ari Jokimäki &

Note: These weekly new research posts will not be published anymore after the end of this year. New research will be communicated in some different format in the future. We are working on it in Skeptical Science author community. I'm not yet sure how this might affect my output in my Facebook and Twitter pages, but it is probable that number of papers communicated through those channels will drop.

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5 comments


New research from last week 49/2012

Posted on 10 December 2012 by Ari Jokimäki &

Global warming impacts many things. It's actually quite difficult to come up with things within Earth system that are not affected by global warming. In this week's papers we see that Greenland glaciers accelerate, frequency and intensity of temperature extremes change, air pollution is getting worse, Arctic sea ice amount is decreasing while Siberian snow cover is thickening, Northern Hemisphere thermal growing season is getting longer, corals are trying to expand polewards but ocean acidification doesn't let them to do that, western North America gets dry and vegetation declines, sea level rises, ...

But all this doesn't mean anything because climate has changed in the past, right? Well, also mass extinctions have happened in the past.

NHgrowSeason

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1 comments


New research from last week 48/2012

Posted on 3 December 2012 by Ari Jokimäki &

Sometimes in the past western Greenland was warmer than today! There has been increasingly warm summers in Euro-Mediterranean region - is this due to increasing solar radiation observed in Spain? There's an increasing need of dusting in Tibetan Plateau due to warming, which by the way is proceeding globally just as expected from GHG-cause. We also look at Fijian corals, vegetation response to climate, and an example of climate caused collapse of prehistoric human society. Check out also the 25 other studies if you want to know some other things, such as the impact of precipitation on vehicle speeds on UK motorways, or storm of November 1724.

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0 comments


New research from last week 47/2012

Posted on 26 November 2012 by Ari Jokimäki &

This week we have papers on snowfall, rainfall, Arctic vegetation, Arctic sea ice, ozone, Svalbard glaciers, ice cores, ocean waters and others.

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3 comments


New research from last week 46/2012

Posted on 19 November 2012 by Ari Jokimäki &

This was somewhat quiet week for climate science. You can also see it from papers below - there are quite a few papers that are from related fields of science. However, I think this is just natural variability and not indicative of some long-term changes in publication activity in climate science. I received 364 papers to my RSS feed reader this week. Below I have included 12 (in the main section) + 26 (in other studies section) = 38, which is 10.4 % of new papers I saw last week. Not bad percentage, I think.

Let's take some open access news. Royal Society Publishing: "All our content is free to access until 29 November 2012" (if you are interested in science history, you could have some fun visiting their journals, some of which started publishing hundreds of years ago). Also, Springer: "View for free on the new SpringerLink through November 30,2012" for Climatic Change, Climate Dynamics, and Theoretical and Applied Climatology(and for some other journals as well).

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3 comments


New research from last week 45/2012

Posted on 12 November 2012 by Ari Jokimäki &

Warming is from human actions even if AMO shows up in Romania. Methane sinking boreal plants and forest bioenergy. Simulating arctic climate, effects of ice retreat, monsoon failure, and future extreme weather. Weather and global warming beliefs, ENSO characteristics, North Greenland ice mass loss. And lots of other stuff.

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5 comments


About New research from last week series

Posted on 11 November 2012 by Ari Jokimäki &

The goal of the New research from last week series is to offer an additional climate research news resource to other news medias. Also, I would like to show that a lot of climate related research is published continuously and that this research is diverse in their study subjects. The New research from last week series does not cover all climate science published in certain week. Below it is briefly discussed what gets included and what doesn't.

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6 comments


New research from last week 44/2012

Posted on 6 November 2012 by Ari Jokimäki &

In this week's edition we see that mankind has warmed climate in Tibet, Greenland west coast, upper troposphere, and in oceans. Sea levels have been rising since 1920's, and the rise seems to continue into the future. Climate warming melts sea ice which fools ocean life temporally. Also Chinese vegetation has got fooled by warming. We continue emitting greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide. We also find out that scientists are not alarmists, but why do I always feel like an alarmist when I just report what their studies say?

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2 comments


New research from last week 43/2012

Posted on 30 October 2012 by Ari Jokimäki &

Last week I was on the road for few days, which resulted in rather limited collection on papers in the main section of this week's post as I ended up putting many of the papers to the other papers section (which takes considerably less effort than creating a main section entry and making related Twitter and Facebook posts). So I expect that in coming weeks the main section grows back to normal size. That being said, now that the other papers section has been with us for a few weeks, I would like to know if you prefer lot of papers in the main section or lot of papers in other papers section or both. While we are at it, go ahead and make all kinds of improvement suggestions if you have them. If I'm in a good mood, I might even take a look at some of them...

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2 comments


New research from last week 42/2012

Posted on 23 October 2012 by Ari Jokimäki &

This week's papers look into rice growth, ice sheet temperature response, invasive species, Greenland temperatures, global warming trends, carbon dioxide emissions, sea level, solar forcing, ozone depletion, ski tourism, tropopause, and sea ice vs. winter climate.

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5 comments


New research from last week 41/2012

Posted on 16 October 2012 by Ari Jokimäki &

It seems that this week I felt nostalgic as there are plenty of papers on past climate in this week's batch. Perhaps I just miss the good old days when climate was all nice.

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2 comments


New research from last week 40/2012

Posted on 9 October 2012 by Ari Jokimäki &

Sun is the fireball in the sky that controlled Earth's climate until mankind took the control. Sun still has some regional tricks, but in order to take back the control of global climate in near future, Sun would need to do some special tricks. Not Sun-related studies this week deal with climate scepticism, cloud height, methane emissions, ocean temperatures, Antarctic glaciers, 2011 sea level drop, ball lightning, surface specific humidity, model predictions, permafrost, past climate, European and East Asian summer temperatures, and some other things. There's 15 studies + another 17 in other papers section, and I only include here a small fraction of all climate related papers. It was a rather busy week in climate science.

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6 comments


New research from last week 39/2012

Posted on 2 October 2012 by Ari Jokimäki &

Studies from Africa have so far been rather rare in these weekly batches but this week we have two papers from Nigeria. They are about farmers and forests. We also have studies on Atlantic Warm Pool corals, atmospheric carbon dioxide, coal burning, coastal heat waves, climate effect of cosmic rays, Swiss forests, NAO state, and of course we have our weekly Arctic sea ice paper. Well, ok, in the other paper section we also have couple of Arctic sea ice papers. Permafrost also gets treated with couple of papers there. And... well, for the rest, see them yourself.

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3 comments



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